6月20日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜周五反弹上涨，因投资者的紧张情绪有所缓解，不过 涨幅因关税不确定性挥之不去而受限。 伦敦时间6月20日17:00(北京时间6月21日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨18.5美元或0.19%，收报每吨 9,633.5美元。盘初，铜价创下6月13日以来最弱的9,558.50美元。 本周，该合约累计下跌11.5美元或0.12%。 特朗普最广泛的"对等"关税的90天暂停期将于下月初结束。 周五LME铜库存下降至99,200吨，自2月中旬以来，LME铜库存已经累计减少逾60%，处于自2023年8月 以来的最低水平。 从LME仓库提取出的大部分铜都已被运往美国，之前受美国对铜加征关税的相关预期支撑，COMEX铜 攀升。 其他金属方面，三个月期铝收高28美元或1.11%，至每吨2,549.5美元。国际铝业协会(IAI)公布的数据显 示，5月全球原铝产量为624.5万吨，同比增加1.5%；原铝日均产量为20.15万吨。 据中新网报道：据路透社报道，当地时间19日，美国白宫方面表示，美国总统特朗普将在两周内决定是 否对伊朗发动打击。 据报道，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特表示，美国与伊 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a significant price adjustment due to a combination of weak demand and supply disruptions, with the price of tin futures closing at 260,560 yuan/ton, down 1.2% [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Supply concerns have shifted focus to the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa region, with current production only reaching 50% of planned capacity [1] - Domestic tin supply remains tight, with smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi operating at low capacity due to a shortage of tin concentrate [1] - The processing fee for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan has dropped to historical lows, leading some companies to reduce production or undergo maintenance [1] Group 2: Demand Trends - Downstream demand is weak, with limited acceptance of high prices, resulting in transactions primarily driven by immediate needs [1] - The automotive electronics sector benefits from increased penetration of new energy vehicles, but overall procurement remains cautious, characterized by "small batches and multiple batches" [1] - Seasonal characteristics are evident, with a decline in orders for photovoltaic components and consumer electronics, further suppressing tin price potential [1][2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The short-term outlook indicates a continuation of weak supply and demand, with a decline in orders from the end market during the off-season [2] - Domestic smelters are facing raw material shortages, leading to a decrease in operating rates and low processing fees for tin concentrate [2] - Current inventory levels are low, providing some support for prices, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [2]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell to a near one-week low due to a stronger dollar and increasing concerns over global economic growth, with three-month copper down by $40.5 or 0.42% to $9,615 per ton [1][2] - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down by $25.5 or 1% to $2,521.5 per ton, while zinc saw a slight increase of $4 or 0.15% to $2,640.5 per ton [2] - LME copper has rebounded 19% since hitting a near 19-month low of $8,105 in April [3] Group 2 - Concerns over regional tensions have strengthened the dollar, which typically weakens the prices of dollar-denominated commodities, leading to a cautious stance among funds [4] - A decrease in trading activity was noted as U.S. traders were absent due to the June holiday [4] - LME copper inventories decreased by 4,025 tons to 103,325 tons, marking the lowest level in over a year [7] Group 3 - The U.S. market has seen an influx of copper due to expectations of tariffs on copper imports, resulting in a premium for copper in the U.S. [8] - The aluminum market in the U.S. is experiencing a decline in premiums, with a drop of over 7% in consumer purchases, amid speculation of potential tariff reductions on Canadian aluminum imports [9] - The global lead market is projected to shift to a surplus of 6,900 tons by April 2025, contrasting with a shortage of 11,900 tons in March [9]

Macro Factors - The US-China trade war shows significant signs of easing, with important consensus reached during the Geneva trade talks in early May, establishing a normalized economic consultation mechanism [3] - Recent economic and financial data in China shows marginal improvement, with retail sales growing by 6.4% year-on-year in May, and industrial added value increasing by 5.8% year-on-year, indicating a recovery phase [4] Oil Price Impact - Since early May, international oil prices have rebounded from around $55, influenced by geopolitical factors in the Middle East, reaching new highs not seen since July of the previous year [5] - Historical trends indicate a strong positive correlation between oil prices and aluminum prices, as fluctuations in oil prices affect the energy costs associated with aluminum production [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic bauxite production in May reached 5.3664 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5.31% and a year-on-year increase of 8.97%, while imports of bauxite hit a historical high [8] - Despite weak overall real estate data, other sectors such as automotive and cable industries are providing incremental demand, with domestic automobile production increasing by 11.3% year-on-year in May [10] - Both domestic and international aluminum inventories are on a downward trend, with domestic social inventory decreasing by nearly 50% since mid-March, indicating a tightening supply situation [10]

现货铜较三个月期铜合约的溢价接近每吨150美元，为2022年10月以来最高，而4月底时为折价。 世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年4月，全球精炼铜产量为251.75万吨，消费量 为232.38万吨，供应过剩19.36万吨。 6月18日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜企稳，因美元在美联储就美国利率做出决定前走软， 而中东冲突升级及其对经济增长和需求的影响主导了市场情绪。 伦敦时间6月18日17:00(北京时间6月19日00:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌13.5美元或0.14%，收报每吨 9,655.5美元。 | | | 6月18日LE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金属 | 收盘价 | | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9655.50 | → | -13.50 1 | -0.14% | | 三个月期铝 | 2547.00 | T | -3.50 | -0.14% | | 三个月期锌 | 2636.50 | - | -2.00 | -0.08% | | 三个月期铅 | 1993.00 | 1 | ...

据人民日报，当地时间6月10日，商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢在伦敦谈到中美经贸磋商机制首次会议时表示，中美双方进行了专业、理性、深 入、坦诚的沟通。双方原则上就落实两国元首6月5日通话共识以及日内瓦会谈共识达成了框架。外贸环境依然难言稳定，市场持续将不确定性纳入考虑当 中。 数据方面，美国5月CPI同比增2.4%，核心CPI环比增0.1%、连续第四个月低于预期；美国5月PPI与核心PPI均环比温和增长0.1%、低于预期，核心PPI增速创 近一年新低，美联储年内两次降息预期升温。5月美国PPI整体涨幅依然温和，关税尚未对消费者和企业造成更高的价格压力。然而美国企业的利润率持续承 压，表明企业正在自行消化关税成本。交易员加大对美联储降息的押注，基本预计今年将降息两次，9月份前降息的可能性为75%。美国宏观经济数据对美 元表现产生明显影响，铜价也因此受到金融属性干扰。 全球交易所库存情况来看：截至6月16日，LME铜库存较6月9日减少12850吨至10.76万吨，前期为关税政策而提前配置的铜库存已经悉数耗尽，LME市场库 存偏紧格局正在形成当中；上期所铜库存减少5461吨至10.19万吨，目前国内精炼铜显性 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions and economic indicators on metal prices, particularly copper, aluminum, and zinc [1][2] - The three-month copper price increased by 0.46% to $9,713 per ton, influenced by a weaker US dollar, while risk aversion due to conflicts in the Middle East limited further gains [1] - The US dollar index fell by 0.1%, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for investors holding other currencies [1] Group 2 - Concerns over oil supply in the Middle East have led to rising oil prices, which could negatively affect global economic growth and potentially increase inflation [1] - Recent data indicates a slowdown in US economic growth, with May retail sales declining more than expected, linked to changes in US tariff policies [1] - China's imports of aluminum ore and its concentrates rose by 29.4% year-on-year in May 2025, totaling 17.51 million tons, while the first five months of 2025 saw a 33.1% increase to 85.18 million tons [1] Group 3 - In other base metals, three-month aluminum prices fell by 0.02% to $2,550 per ton, while zinc prices rose by 0.55% to $2,653 per ton [2] - Lead prices increased by 0.18% to $1,979.5 per ton, nickel prices slightly rose by 0.24% to $14,960 per ton, and tin prices saw a 1.11% increase to $32,625 per ton [2]

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to a sell-off in risk assets, resulting in a stronger US dollar and a decline in most base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 13, LME three-month copper fell by $57 or 0.59%, closing at $9,645 per ton, with an intraday low of $9,532, marking the weakest level since June 3 [1][2]. - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down $14.50 or 0.58% to $2,503.00, three-month zinc down $19.50 or 0.74% to $2,623.00, and three-month lead down $6.00 or 0.30% to $1,990.50 [2][6]. - The COMEX copper premium over LME copper reached $976 per ton [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analysis - The strong US dollar has made dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies, contributing to the market's risk reduction in copper and aluminum [3]. - Alastair Munro from Marex noted that the current events have diminished the likelihood of prices moving upward, suggesting that price declines may attract bargain hunters [3][5]. - The majority of selling pressure is attributed to commodity trading advisors (CTA) investment funds [5]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand Insights - In contrast to the LME, Shanghai aluminum has seen a third consecutive day of gains, closing at 20,440 yuan per ton, up 0.49%, supported by declining inventories [7]. - As of the week ending June 13, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventories fell to 110,001 tons, the lowest since February 2024, having decreased by 54% since late March [7].

Core Viewpoint - Recent nickel price declines are influenced by various factors, including supply pressures and changes in mining policies in Indonesia and the Philippines [2][3][4]. Supply Factors - Nickel prices are under pressure due to significant oversupply, with Indonesian and Philippine mining policies contributing to this situation. The removal of export bans in the Philippines and high supply growth from Chinese nickel companies have exacerbated the oversupply [3][4]. - Nickel inventory levels have increased significantly, with nickel pig iron inventory rising to 31,500 tons and refined nickel inventory increasing nearly eightfold to 39,000 tons [3]. Demand Factors - Domestic demand for refined nickel is expected to grow faster than supply in the first half of the year, with a 60.82% year-on-year increase in apparent consumption [6]. - However, demand from stainless steel and ternary precursor sectors remains weak, limiting the growth potential for refined nickel consumption [6][7]. Global Inventory Trends - Global refined nickel inventory accumulation is slowing down due to supply-side disruptions and the impact of low nickel prices on high-cost producers, leading to production cuts [5][6]. - The LME inventory has shown a decline since April, particularly in Russian-origin stocks, indicating a potential tightening in supply [5]. Price Outlook - Short-term nickel price declines may be limited due to high nickel ore prices and ongoing inventory depletion [7]. - However, there remains potential for further price declines as raw material prices may still adjust downward, and demand from stainless steel production is not expected to improve significantly [7]. Market Focus - Future market attention should be directed towards changes in Indonesian mining policies, the impact of price declines on high-cost supply, and the ability of pure nickel inventories to deplete effectively [7].

Group 1 - LME three-month copper rose by $54 or 0.56% to $9,702 per ton, supported by a weaker dollar, despite ongoing concerns about demand and unresolved trade tensions [1][3] - Copper prices have increased approximately 20% since hitting a low of $8,105 per ton in April 2023 [1] - The weaker dollar makes metals priced in dollars cheaper for buyers using other currencies, providing some support to prices [3] Group 2 - Recent manufacturing PMI data from Europe and the US remains in contraction territory, indicating a drag from current tariff situations on demand [3] - The US investigation into copper imports has led to a significant premium of COMEX copper prices over LME prices, with a spread of $946 per ton [3] - The production guidance for the Kakula mine has been adjusted to 370,000 to 420,000 tons for 2025, with the 2026 target of approximately 600,000 tons withdrawn [3][4] Group 3 - The downward revision of production estimates, particularly from the Democratic Republic of Congo, is impacting supply outlook, suggesting a potential supply shortage by year-end [4]