2025年12月，全球铜精矿产量为160.96万吨。 2月18日（周三），世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年12月，全球精炼铜产量为225.06万吨，消费量为215.26万吨，供应过剩9.8万 吨。 2025年1-12月，全球铜精矿产量为1877.3万吨。 2025年1-12月，全球精炼铜产量为2721.23万吨，消费量为2682.71万吨，供应过剩38.51万吨。 （文华综合） ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the proposed U.S. strategic copper reserve plan could lead to a reduction in metal inventory, resulting in an upward risk to their forecast of $11,200 per ton for copper prices in Q4 2026 [2] - The implementation of the reserve plan is expected to absorb most of the projected global copper surplus of 300,000 tons in 2026, shifting the market from oversupply to supply-demand balance [2] - The "Project Vault" announced by President Trump aims to establish a critical mineral reserve to support the U.S. automotive industry, targeting a 60-day supply of minerals for emergencies [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs estimates that if the U.S. reserves 60 days of critical metals, the reserves for copper and aluminum alone could account for about half of the total capital required for the "Project Vault" [3] - While the U.S. could potentially stockpile all 60 critical minerals, the reserves may be concentrated in smaller markets with high import dependence, such as heavy rare earths, rather than being evenly distributed across all commodities [3] Group 3 - As the largest copper consumer globally, the Chinese industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The metal market is experiencing volatility, but the fundamental demand for metals like copper and gold remains strong despite recent price fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have seen significant volatility, with a recent surge leading to a 140% increase in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF over the past 12 months, while gold prices rose by 64% [1]. - The recent price drop has caused psychological impacts on the market, with gold prices shifting from around $3,000 to nearly $5,000 per ounce, leading to a decline in mining stocks [2]. - Despite the price corrections, the macroeconomic position of gold is expected to remain unchanged due to ongoing global economic divisions, trade protectionism, and geopolitical tensions [2][3]. Group 2: Copper Market Insights - Copper is viewed as the most attractive long-term asset in the metals sector, with a significant global supply shortage expected to persist [4]. - Factors such as electrification, defense spending, grid expansion, and supply chain reshoring are driving copper demand, while current production capacity is insufficient to meet this demand [4][5]. - The approval processes for new mining projects are lengthy, and existing mines are facing declining ore grades, with few major discoveries in recent years [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The recent market adjustments have highlighted a divide between institutional traders and retail investors, with hedge funds profiting from volatility while retail investors struggle [7]. - Long-term investors are advised to focus on companies with strong projects and reliable funding sources, maintaining a long-term perspective on metal cycles [7][8]. - It is suggested that investors take profits during high market sentiment and consider re-investing during significant market corrections, as the financial health of major producers remains robust [8][9].

哈萨克斯坦统计局周二公布的数据显示，哈萨克斯坦2026年1月铜产量同比下滑9.4%。 精炼铜：2026年1月产量为38,641吨，较2025年12月的38,992吨环比下降0.9%，较2025年1月同比下降9.4%。2025年全年产量为470,990吨，全年同比增长 1.5%。 精炼锌：2026年1月产量为20,258吨，较2025年12月的21,688吨环比下降6.6%，较2025年1月同比下降7.8%。2025年全年产量为259,638吨，全年同比下降 6.6%。 氧化铝和未锻造铝：2026年1月产量为140,392吨，较2025年12月的147,586吨环比下降4.9%，较2025年1月同比下降9.7%。2025年全年产量为1,782,420吨，全 年同比下降1.4%。 铁合金：2026年1月产量为180,505吨，较2025年12月的403,791吨环比大幅下降55.3%，较2025年1月同比下降5.3%。2025年全年产量为2,469,496吨，全年同 比增长7.7%。 粗钢：2026年1月产量为339,523吨，较2025年12月的443,923吨环比下降23.5%，较2025年1月同比下降5.7 ...

Group 1 - Mopani Copper Mines' underground operations at Mufulira mine can resume immediately after implementing new safety measures [2] - The Minerals Regulation Commission suspended operations due to non-compliance with safety regulations, particularly the failure to maintain a system for accurately tracking underground workers [2] - Mopani Copper Mines is one of Zambia's largest copper mining companies, and Zambia is the second-largest copper producer in Africa, with copper being a key metal in clean energy technology [2] Group 2 - International Resources Holding, based in the UAE, acquired a 51% stake in Mopani Copper Mines for $1.1 billion in 2024, with the remaining shares held by Zambia's state-owned ZCCM Investment Holdings [3] - Zambia's copper production was approximately 890,000 tons last year, with a target to reach 3 million tons annually by 2031 [3] - China, as the world's largest copper consumer, faces three major challenges in its copper industry: increasing reliance on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and demand suppression due to high copper prices [3]

2月16日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜走弱，因美元走强，且焦点转向库存增加，以及假期 清淡交易期间疲软的需求前景。 伦敦时间2月16日17:00(北京时间2月17日01:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌30.5美元，或0.24%，收报每吨 12,850.5美元。 | | 2月16日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张默帽 | | 三个月期铜 | 12,850.50 - | -30.50 -0.24% | | 三个月期铝 | 3.052.50 | -25.00 -0.81% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,290.00 ↓ | -47.50 -1.42% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,958.00 | -2.00 -0.10% | | 三个月期镇 | 17.115.00 ↑ +131.00 ↑ +0.77% | | | 三个月期锡 | 45,681.00 -1,021.00 ↓ -2.19% | | **周一适逢中美假期，市况清淡** 贸易商表示，本周正值中国春节假期，且周一为美国公众假期，这意味着市场交易量偏低；而伦敦金属 交 ...

2月17日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜下跌，因美元走强和LME注册仓库的桶库存增加打压 市场。由于中国春节假期，市场交易量清淡。 伦敦时间2月17日17:00(北京时间2月18日01:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌231美元，或1.8%，收报每吨 12,619.5美元。盘中触及12,586美元的2月6日以来最低位。 | | 2月17日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张跃帽 | | 三个月期铜 | 12,619.50 | -231.00 -1.80% | | 三个月期铝 | 3,035.00 4 | -17.50 -0.57% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,286.50 ↓ | -3.50 J -0.11% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,946.50 ↓ | -11.50 -0.59% | | 三个月期镇 | 16,861.00 | -254.00 -1.48% | | 三个月期锡 | | 45,931.00 ↑ +250.00 ↑ +0.55% | （文华综合） 其他基本金属中，LME三个月期铅下跌11.5美元，或0.5 ...

经纪商Marex在一份报告中称，基本金属市场在追随纳斯达克市场的涨势。 2月18日（周三），伦敦期铜上涨，自上一交易日触及的逾一周低位回升，因投资者在清淡的交投中逢 低承接。 有分析师称，基本金属在追随高科技股的反弹走势。 伦敦时间2月18日17:00(北京时间2月19日01:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨2.31%或292美元，收报每吨 12,911.50美元。盘中该合约曾上涨至每吨12,941美元。周二该合约下跌1.8%，触及自2月6日以来的最低 水平。 | | 2月18日LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 我屋 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 12911. 50 | 292 | 2. 31% | | 三个月期铝 | 3089.00 | 54 | 1. 78% | | 三个月期锌 | 3353. 50 | 67 | 2. 04% | | 三个月期铅 | 1964. 50 | 18 | 0. 92% | | 三个月期镍 | 17275.00 | 414 | 2. 46% | | 三个月期锡 | 45918.00 | ...

2月19日（周四），伦敦期铜下跌，回吐前一交易日的部分涨幅。美元走强、库存上升以及全球最大金 属消费国中国因农历新年假期导致需求减少，这些因素都对价格构成压力。 Hansen表示，技术面支撑抵消了高库存和美元走强的看跌影响。 他说，"自去年8月以来，每次价格下跌，50日均线都提供支撑。" 他补充道，支撑位为12,670美元，而上行方面，13,000美元关口构成"心理阻力位"。 其他金属方面，LME三个月期锌下跌14美元，或0.42%，收报每吨3,339.5美元。铝价在周三打破四连跌 后，周四下跌21.5美元，或0.7%，收报每吨3,067.5美元。 | | 2月19日 LME基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 全屋 | 收盘价 | 张跌 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | | 12,809.00 ↓ - 102.50 ↓ -0.79% | | 三个月期铝 | 3,067.50 4 | -21.50 -0.70% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,339.50 1 | -14.00 ↓ -0.42% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,954.50 ↓ | -10.00 -0.51% ...

2月20日（周五），因美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府大规模关税政策违法，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜、铝等基本金属价格应声上 涨。 | 15 LCPT | 综合铜03 | $ 13000.00 | 1.26 162.00 | 0 0 0 - | - 0.03 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 16 LALT | 综合铝03 | $ 3105.50 | 1.21 37.00 | 10 0 0 0 0 - | | -0.14 | | 17 LLDT | 综合铅03 | $ 1966.50 | 0.69 13.50 | 10 | | - - - 0.03 | | 18 LZNT | 综合锌03 | $ 3378.00 | 0.91 30.50 | 10 0 0 0 0 | | -0.10 | | 19 LTNT | 综合锡03 | $ 46740 1.99 | 910 | 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 | | 0.00 | | 20 LNKT | 综合镇03 | 17435 | 0.78 | 135 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 ...