Core Viewpoint - Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell to a one-week low but recovered some losses, with tariff reduction prospects increasing pricing uncertainty [1][3]. Group 1: Aluminum Market - On February 13, LME three-month aluminum dropped by $22.5, or 0.73%, closing at $3,077.5 per ton, reaching its lowest level since February 6 [1][2]. - The prospect of the U.S. reducing aluminum tariffs has added uncertainty to trade flows and pricing, with U.S. buyers' prices dropping 6.8% to 93 cents per pound [3]. - Analysts indicate that the main market impact comes from primary aluminum tariffs, and any tariff reductions on derivative products will not affect LME aluminum prices unless they extend to primary metals [3]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - Other industrial metals experienced declines due to profit-taking and risk aversion, with LME three-month copper rising slightly by $5.5, or 0.04%, to $12,881.0 per ton, moving away from its record high of $14,527.50 set on January 29 [4]. - LME three-month zinc fell by $36.5, or 1.08%, closing at $3,337.5 per ton [5]. - LME three-month lead decreased by $17.5, or 0.88%, to $1,960.0 per ton, while nickel dropped by $444, or 2.55%, to $16,984.0 per ton [6]. - LME three-month tin saw a significant drop of $2,961, or 5.96%, closing at $46,702.0 per ton [7]. Group 3: Supply and Export Regulations - Indonesia is considering a plan to ban the export of various raw materials, including tin, in the coming years [8]. - The country has already banned the export of several raw ores, including nickel ore, bauxite, and copper concentrate, to attract domestic processing industry investment and promote high-value product exports [9].

各具体仓库库存变化情况 | 金屋 | 阵 | 注册仓单 变动 | 注销仓单 变动 | 注销品比 | FBRK | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 원의 | 203,875 | 194,050 1+10.89% | 9,825 -54.62% | 4.82% | 11.01% | | 铝 | 481,550 | 436,425 -1.13% | 45,125 1 +7,12% | 9.37% | 8.71% | | 蚌 | 102,225 | 92,975 1 -0.27% | 9.250 -9.98% | 9.05% | 9.93% | | 賞 | 287,088 | 276,642 ↑ +0.10% | 10,446 ↑ +4,19% | 3.64% | 3.50% | | 铝 | 232,650 | 216,675 - 0.00% | 15,975 J -1.54% | 6.87% | 6.97% | | 易 | 7.440 | 7.070 1 -1.46% | 370 ↑+17.46% | 4.97% | 4.21% | | 铝合金 | 1.500 | 1 ...

业绩下滑源于氧化铝价格走低及挪威克朗汇率走强，但部分被原铝与氧化铝销量增长及原材料成本下降 所抵消。Hydro产生自由现金流46亿挪威克朗，全年调整后资本回报率（RoaCE）达10.2%。 2月13日（周五），挪威铝业生产商Norsk Hydro公布的季度核心利润超出市场预期，称强劲的原铝收益 和金属价格上涨抵消下游市场疲软的影响。 经调整的息税折旧及摊销前利润在10-12月期间升至55.9亿挪威克朗（约合5.8523亿美元），较上年同期 的77亿克朗有所下降。 根据分析师预测，市场平均预期其核心利润为52.3亿克朗。 由于欧盟准备对铝进口征收碳排放费用，Hydro面临着前景变化的局面。这一举措可能会有利于排放量 较低的金属产品，尽管全球铝供应量的增加以及生产成本的下降表明市场将更加平衡。 获取可再生能源仍是Hydro实现低碳铝战略及保持竞争力的关键。第四季度，Hydro与Hafslund签署两份 长期电力采购协议，覆盖2031至2040年期间NO3价格区域5.25太瓦时的电力供应，该区域涵盖Hydro Sunndal和Hydro H?yanger电解铝厂。依托可再生能源，Hydro在挪威的铝生产碳足迹可比全 ...

Inventory Changes - Copper inventory increased by 23,564 tons or 9.5%, reaching 272,475 tons, the highest since August 9, 2024 [2] - Aluminum inventory rose by 52,200 tons or 21.3%, totaling 297,340 tons [2] - Zinc inventory grew by 16,336 tons or 23.1%, amounting to 87,025 tons [2] - Nickel inventory increased by 1,318 tons or 2.3%, reaching 58,775 tons [2] - Lead inventory rose by 8,715 tons or 18.2%, totaling 56,539 tons [2] - Tin inventory increased by 2,264 tons or 25.9%, reaching 11,014 tons [2] - Alumina inventory rose by 57,902 tons or 18.8%, totaling 366,689 tons [2] - Cast aluminum alloy inventory decreased by 1,690 tons or 2.3%, reaching 72,735 tons [3] - International copper inventory increased by 2,277 tons or 12.4%, totaling 20,625 tons [4] Industry Challenges - The Chinese copper industry faces three main challenges: rising dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [5]

（文华综合） 外盘交易所休市安排如下：（均为北京时间） | 交易所 | 市场/交易品种 | 2月16日 (星期一) | 2月17日 (星期二 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 股指 | 17日02:00提前收市* | 正常交易 | | CME | 利率 | 17日02:00提前收市* | 正常交易 | | | 225 | 正常交易 | 止常交易 | | NYMEX | 美原油、美燃油、汽油 | 17日03:30提前收市* | 正常交易 | | | 铂金、铝金 | 17日03:30提前收市* | 正常交易 | | COMEX | 铜、金、银 | 17日03:30提前收市* | 正常交易 | | CBOT | 美豆、美玉米、美豆粕、美豆油、美麦 | 休市 | 正常交易 | | | 棉花,糖11号,可可,咖啡,橙汁 | 休市 | 正常交易 | | ICE (美国) | 美元信数 | 正常交易(无结算价交易) | 正常交易 | | | 出版 | 休市 | 正常交易 | | ICE (欧洲) | 白糖 | 17日01:00提前收市,结算时间17日0:53-0:55 | 正常交易 | | | ...

隔夜美国科技股再遭抛售，海外风险偏好不佳，工业品普遍下挫，铜价难逃跌势，今日晚间市场较为关 注的美国通胀数据即将出炉，市场将根据数据表现继续评估美联储货币政策前景。 周中上期所铜仓单持续增加，今日公布的上期所周度库存大概率增加较多，且最近LME和COMEX铜库 存同步增加，全球显性库存累增背景下，铜价有所承压。 沪铜夜盘下跌，日内延续弱势姿态，收盘下跌2.24%，期价守住100000关口。外围风险偏好再度转弱， 期市氛围偏空，全球铜显性库存持续累积，沪铜走势承压。 （文华综合） 对于铜价走势，光大期货表示，铜价近期走势与海外金融市场和贵金属表现有一定趋同性，这表明当前 运行逻辑仍依赖于金融属性和市场情绪，整体仍以震荡偏多行情看待。策略上，建议维持逢低买入思 路，但春节假期即将到来，节日期间外盘地缘扰动仍然较强，建议轻仓过节。 ...

对于后市，金瑞期货评论表示，春节假期临近，2月国内多数锡冶炼企业将逐步进入停产休假阶段。需 求端，节前补库已基本收官，下游各环节陆续进入春节休假节奏，中小焊料企业多已提前放假，市场仅 维持零星刚需成交。展望后市，矿端供应偏紧的核心格局并未改变，预计短期维持宽幅震荡。 沪锡大幅下挫，截止收盘，主力合约收跌7.05%，报365400元/吨。锡基本面变化有限，短期价格受宏观 情绪主导。隔夜美股、贵金属与加密货币等风险资产同步大幅下挫，引发市场对流动性风险上升的担忧 情绪，蔓延至有色金属板块，沪锡跌幅居前。 （文华综合） 当前基本面暂无明显矛盾，锡矿供应紧张状况有所缓解，但冶炼厂矿端竞争仍然激烈，不过，随着缅甸 锡矿复产节奏逐步加快，长期锡矿供应有一定宽松预期，此外，印尼锡锭出口已基本恢复常态化，整体 供应保持稳定。下游基本进入放假尾声，终端也即将步入春节假期，暂无新增订单，普遍计划待节后重 启采购。尽管消费电子领域略有回暖迹象，但整体终端需求复苏依然缓慢。 现货市场已进入春节放假节奏。云南、江西等主产区物流几近停摆，华东地区仅维持极有限的本地短途 流转。调研显示，绝大多数焊料厂已停工放假，叠加前期价格回调期间已完成 ...

高盛预计，2026年和2027年全球锌需求将分别增长约2%。 该行表示，目前尚不认为需要中国持续出口锌来平衡全球市场，但指出中国将在缓解临时性供应紧张方 面发挥越来越重要的作用，未来几年出口套利机会可能更频繁出现。 2月12日（周四），高盛表示，预计今年全球锌市场将出现小幅过剩，主要受矿山供应增长和精矿去库 存推动，同时需求保持稳定。 但该投行在报告中指出，预计2027年和2028年矿山供应增速将显著放缓，届时中国以外市场将转为短 缺。 ...

在印尼和南美供应中断以及关税扰动推动下，铜价于2025年上涨，并延续涨势至今年，如今再度回落。 周四COMEX3月铜期货合约下跌3.02%，结算价报每磅5.7855美元，较两周前高点已回落12%。伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜下跌2.21%。 卫星数据显示1月冶炼厂活动量创近十年监测以来最低水平，加剧了铜市的不确定性。 Earth-i最新发布的SAVANT全球铜冶炼指数显示，1月全球14.3%的冶炼产能处于停产状态，较12月下降2.5%，在行业传统旺季出现显著下滑。这也是七年来 同期首次出现两位数闲置率，当前闲置率较三年均值高出6.8%。Earth-i卫星覆盖全球约95%的冶炼产能。 全球总数据掩盖了显著的区域差异。亚太地区同比降幅最为显著，尽管环比12月实现增长（该地区为唯一实现环比增长的区域），但仍贡献了超过85万吨的 产能下降量。该地区持续遭受重大扰动冲击，包括菲律宾Isabel Leyte（PASAR）冶炼厂关闭，以及印尼Gresik和Manyar冶炼厂临时停产。两家印尼工厂均因 9月Grasberg 矿泥石流事件被迫停产，该事件导致上下游作业全面受阻。 南美洲和欧洲的活跃产能均下降逾10万吨。南 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that both domestic and international copper prices are experiencing a decline, with current losses exceeding 2% [2] - The recent sell-off in U.S. technology stocks has negatively impacted overseas risk appetite, leading to a general downturn in industrial commodities, including copper [2] - The price difference between COMEX copper and LME copper has turned negative, reflecting seasonal weakness in the domestic market and an evident accumulation of global copper inventories [2] Group 2 - The article highlights that the pressure on copper prices is increasing due to the visible accumulation of copper stocks globally [2] - The ongoing seasonal effects in the domestic market are contributing to the downward trend in copper prices [2] - The overall sentiment in the market remains bearish, as industrial commodities are broadly declining amid unfavorable external conditions [2]