周五美国公布非农就业下修的数据后，市场其实就炸裂了，我们解释一下这个事情，另外，也把下周其他重要的事情，一并帮梳理一下，一 共5条。 1、炸裂的 非农数据 ，应该如何应对； 2、海外的两个关键时间点， 8月7日，8月12日 。 3、 公募的负债端拐点 ，是否已到？——今年的第二批浮动管理费基金，下周要发了。 4、 长江电力，中国神华 ，这个周末吵翻天了。 5、 外卖大战 叫停？以及上海启动无人驾驶试运营。 话不多说，直接步入正题。 ...... 1、 炸裂的非农数据，应该如何应对？ 周五美国公布的非农数据，确实比较炸裂，不仅7月的新增就业降至7.3万，创9个月以来新低，关键是5月、6月的数据，合计下修了25.8 万，"仅剩"3.3万，这样一来，过去三个月，美国的新增就业月均增加仅为3.5万，创新冠以来新低。 川宝觉得这是针对他的"政治操纵"，因此，直接把劳工统计局局长给开了。 这里，市场的解读已经很多了，我和大家讨论一个问题——在无法了解的主观因素以外， 究竟是什么原因，导致了如此炸裂的数据下修。 那么，现在的问题是，统计局，当月能收上来的回复，越来越少，已经跌破了60%，这也就意味着， 统计局首次公布的数据 ...

大家周六晚上好，这是我们知识星球专栏的第四期，继续坚持一下，每周，把1篇星球里比较优质、且普适的内容，分享出来，供大家参 考。 今天的这篇，主要围绕7月底发布的， 银行理财的半年报 ，解读一些，背后暗藏的资产线索，或者行业趋势。 原文，请见中国理财网。 等等。 1、上周的一些时事解读，比如国债利息的增值税取消免税，7月PMI数据等； 2、对热门行业当下情况的解读，比如机器人、港股证券、港股非银、港股银行、反内卷板块，等等； 3、对银行理财半年报的深度解读； 4、对融资余额数据变化的全面解读； 5、对稳定币概念，涉及投资标的的介绍； 6、对Reits中，各个细分品种当前的投资观点； 7、对AH溢价破新低，底层逻辑的解释； 8、对二级债基、纯债基金的夏普比率分析； 9、以及一些个人成长相关的内容。 老规矩，还是分成两个part。 ...... 第一，上周的星球周度精选。 老规矩，每周，星球里，会从80-100条当周发布的帖子里，找出10-15条左右，做成周度精选的pdf，分享在星球当中。 主要原因之一，是因为此星球的输出强度，可能是全行业top级别的，比如上周，合计输出了12万字，下图，通过周度精选，可以帮大家 ...

好久没有开篇聊债券了，知道大家对下面这个新闻，很着急，下图，两部门宣布， 对8月8日起，新发的国债、地方债、金融债的利息收入，恢 复征收增值税 ，也就是说，原先免税的政策取消了。 我一步一步解读一下哈。 1、在讨论之前，要先了解，国内的不同机构，投资不同的债券，涉及到哪些具体的税种，下图。 这回通知里，取消免税的，是下图红色框框里，对应的，利息收入里的增值税，这是所有事情，讨论的基础，大家得先清楚。 | 图层4 | 不同投资者的债券投资税率 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资者类型 | 券种 | | 利息收入税率 | | | 转让价差税率 | | | | | 增值税及附加 | 所得税 | 合计 | 增值税及时加 | 所得税 | 合计 | | 公募基金 | 国债+地方债 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | 政策金融债+金融债+NCD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | 铁道债 | 3.26% | 0 | 3.26% | O | 0 | 0 | | | 非金融企业债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the investment market, focusing on the performance of various sectors and the implications of regulatory changes on investment strategies. Group 1: Insurance and Investment Strategies - The podcast highlights the rapid growth of the insurance sector since 2022 and the underlying logic behind this trend [5] - It discusses the regulatory push to lower the insurance preset interest rates starting in 2024, which is expected to impact investment decisions [6] - The assessment of state-owned insurance companies' evaluation mechanisms is seen as beneficial for the stock market [6] - Recommendations for investment allocation are provided, suggesting diversification and balanced approaches rather than chasing hot stocks [20] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The equity market experienced significant declines, with over 80% of stocks falling and a median drop of approximately 1.45% [10] - External factors, particularly U.S.-China trade negotiations, are influencing market sentiment, with the U.S. gaining a psychological advantage [12] - Internal market dynamics show a cooling of "anti-involution" trading, leading to declines in previously high-performing sectors like steel and coal [14] - Commodity prices have returned to previous levels, indicating a correction in the market [15] Group 3: Specific Stock Insights - The stock of a pharmaceutical company, referred to as "药X," fell by 5.6% following a planned share placement, reflecting market reactions to corporate actions [21] - The article suggests maintaining good relations with company management for better insights into stock movements [22] Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The company advises waiting for upcoming earnings reports from major firms like Apple before making further investment decisions [23] - It notes that some fund companies have relaxed purchase limits on certain products, indicating a shift in market accessibility [24]

Group 1: US-China Trade Negotiations - The third round of US-China trade negotiations in Sweden is significant, especially after the US reached preliminary agreements with multiple countries, leaving China as one of the remaining major trade partners [4][5] - The US is exerting pressure on its remaining trade partners, as evidenced by the announcement of a 25% tariff on India, indicating a strategy to leverage recent agreements with other countries [5][6] - The US aims to reduce supply chain risks in strategic industries such as rare earths, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, potentially implementing lower tariffs initially before increasing them later [6][9] - China's expansion of export capacity and improvements in the value chain are seen positively, indicating a strong manufacturing sector that poses challenges to Western economies [7][9] Group 2: Recent Policy Meeting Insights - The core message from the recent policy meeting emphasizes enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, acknowledging the achievements in stabilizing the market since September of the previous year [12][13] - The monetary policy focus is on maintaining low financing costs across various sectors, including government bonds and corporate loans, rather than explicitly mentioning rate cuts [13] - The meeting highlighted the need to address local government behaviors that contribute to disorderly competition, indicating a structural approach to economic challenges [14] - The real estate sector's focus is on high-quality urban renewal, reflecting a shift towards structural adjustments rather than total volume increases [14][15] Group 3: Market Trends and Observations - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant declines, particularly in the semiconductor sector, influenced by broader market dynamics and competitive pressures in the electric vehicle market [17][18] - A notable risk in the A-share market is the suspension of trading for a stock due to abnormal fluctuations, signaling potential issues for speculative investments [24] - The bond market has seen considerable volatility recently, marking one of the highest fluctuation periods of the year [25][26]

Group 1 - The first data point indicates a high level of market speculation, with net financing purchases reaching 19.2 billion, the second highest this year, only behind February 5 [2][3] - The financing balance has increased to 1.95 trillion, surpassing the previous high of 1.94 trillion in March, marking the second highest level in history, only below the bull market period of 2015 [2][3] - The current financing balance is described as the second most active in history, suggesting a significant level of market engagement [3] Group 2 - The second data point reflects the true economic temperature, with state-owned enterprises reporting a 0.2% decline in total revenue and a 3.1% decline in total profit for the first half of the year [10][11] - A survey by the central bank indicates a decline in income confidence and employment perception, with nearly 40% of respondents feeling the job market is "average" and over 53% perceiving it as "severe" or "uncertain" [10][11] Group 3 - The third data point explains the rationale behind the stock market's performance, highlighting that the current low interest rate environment in China is driving a structural market rally, leading to a revaluation of equity assets [12][13] - The average annualized return of financial products in the first half of the year is reported at 2.12%, down from 2.65% the previous year, indicating a decline in the overall risk-free interest rate [14][15] - Companies maintaining double-digit profit growth in a low-risk interest rate environment are seen as attractive investment opportunities, particularly in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals [15][16] Group 4 - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has seen significant gains, with stocks rising nearly 100% this year, driven by recent agreements and market interest [19][21] - Reports indicate that leading innovative pharmaceutical companies have a price-to-sales ratio in line with historical averages, suggesting continued growth potential despite recent price increases [22][23] - Fund managers specializing in pharmaceuticals are optimistic about the sector's future, emphasizing the importance of stock selection in the current market environment [24]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent turmoil in the commodity market, highlighting significant price drops due to new trading restrictions imposed by exchanges [5][10] - Various commodities experienced substantial declines, with some falling by over 11%, indicating a volatile trading environment [7][9] - The trading restrictions are aimed at reducing speculative trading and stabilizing the market, which may lead to both significant gains and losses for investors [10][9] Group 2 - The article notes a shift in investment focus within the Hong Kong stock market, with capital moving from bank stocks to insurance and brokerage sectors [19][23] - The non-bank financial sector in Hong Kong has shown strong performance, with ETFs in this category experiencing significant inflows and price increases [21][27] - Recent data indicates that net buying in the insurance and brokerage sectors has surpassed that of bank stocks, reflecting a change in investment strategy among investors [25][26] Group 3 - The article mentions the automotive industry, particularly the electric vehicle sector, facing potential sales declines in the latter half of the year due to high comparative sales figures from the previous year [14][13] - Major automotive companies have already adjusted their production and sales targets downward in response to anticipated market conditions [14][15]

下周的重要事件太多了，周日晚上，帮大家梳理一下，一共6条。 话不多说，直接步入正题。 ...... 1、最重要的，下周一、周二，中美第三轮贸易谈判。 全球最瞩目的事件，当然还是这事儿，中美双方，上周都提前预告过了。 从时间来看，第一轮是5月10日的瑞士，第二轮是6月9日的伦敦。 下周的第三轮，和6月的第二轮谈判，相差一个半月左右的时间，在此期间， 标普500、恒生指数 、沪深300 这三大指数，涨幅都在6-7%之间 ， 也证 明，自上一轮谈判起，中美资金的风险偏好，都是抬升的。 而中国的稀土永磁指数，区间涨幅是32%，英伟达的区间涨幅是22%——这恰好说明， 稀土换芯片 的对价，是第二轮贸易谈判的主要成果之一。 我给大家看一个图， 下图 ，黑色，是中国对美国的贸易顺差，25年年初开始，掉头向下；而蓝色，是中国对其他14个非美贸易伙伴的贸易顺差，大幅走 高，因此，今年在贸易层面发生的故事，显而易见——通过转口贸易，全球经济基本保证了贸易的总量，中间商赚取了差价，而中美则依旧分别承受着低 通胀、高通胀的问题。 展望下周的第三轮谈判，我觉得，要关注到的，最大的变化在于， 在最近一个半月，美国与多个国家初步达成了协议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses asset allocation strategies for individual investors, particularly focusing on a case where an investor has 5 million yuan to invest with a preference for safety and moderate returns [6][9]. Group 1: Weekly Highlights - The article mentions a weekly selection of posts from a community, highlighting key topics such as bond market adjustments and investment strategies [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Discussion - An investor inquired about how to invest 5 million yuan with a focus on capital safety and a target annual return of 5-6%, while accepting a volatility of 10-15% [8][12]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding potential risks and the reality of achieving desired returns, noting that a conservative approach may yield around 3% annually without market risk [12][13]. - It is suggested that the investor should avoid certain products like insurance and short-term debt due to their unsuitability for the investment horizon and return expectations [17][18]. Group 3: Recommended Investment Products - Recommended investment options include bank wealth management products, especially those with multi-asset strategies, and broker asset management products that offer higher yield potential [18][19]. - Public funds with fixed income and index products are also suggested, with a focus on broad-based indices and ETFs to minimize risk [19][20]. Group 4: Portfolio Allocation Advice - A proposed allocation strategy for the investor includes a mix of global, quantitative, and fixed-income products, with a suggested risk tolerance level of moderate [21][22]. - The article highlights the benefits of diversified investment through professional management, while also cautioning about the risks of relying on a single manager's strategy [24][25]. Group 5: Practical Investment Steps - The article advises the investor to initially invest 30-50% of the total amount and to gradually deploy the remaining funds over a period of 6 months to 1 year, allowing for better market timing and emotional management [25][26]. - It emphasizes the importance of learning from the investment process and developing a solid understanding of market dynamics through engagement with professional advisors [26][27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent fluctuations in the A-share market, particularly the rise of AI-related stocks and the decline of the hydropower engineering sector due to shifting investor focus ahead of an AI conference in Shanghai [1] - The insurance industry is facing a significant change as the insurance association has officially lowered the preset interest rates, with new rates set to take effect on September 1, where the maximum preset rate for ordinary life insurance is 2%, for participating insurance is 1.75%, and for universal insurance is 1% [4][11] - The article discusses the ongoing trend of low interest rates, predicting that the key rates will continue to decline, which has been a foundational basis for many investment decisions this year [6][9] Group 2 - The impact of the insurance preset rate reduction is expected to lead to a "buy before the price increase" phenomenon, but the article expresses skepticism about a significant surge in new policy sales due to already low preset rates and market saturation [11] - Insurance companies are likely to increase the sales of participating insurance products as the difference in interest rates between traditional life insurance and participating insurance narrows [12] - The article notes that the pressure on small and medium-sized insurance companies will increase, as lower preset rates reduce customer attraction and intensify competition from other financial products [12][13] Group 3 - The article mentions that the trend of concentration among leading insurance companies will strengthen as the industry adapts to the new interest rate environment, with significant capital flows into leading insurance firms reflected in the performance of related ETFs [13][14] - The article highlights the recent net inflow of over 800 billion into Hong Kong stocks, indicating strong demand from investors despite market volatility [17] - The public fund industry has seen a turning point with a notable increase in the share of mixed funds, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment towards active equity investments [18]