大家新年好啊，今天是周五，港股已经开盘，因此上来和大伙儿聊几句，然后休息两天，等下周一（初七）港股再开盘的晚上，继续完整地聊一 下海外等全球大类资产，在假期的表现，帮大家在A股开盘前热个身。 今天分几个点哈，聊到哪儿算哪儿。 一、春晚的一些想法。 我觉得吐槽是没啥意义的，能看到一些事物发展的本质，才是有价值的。 1、本届春晚的 "含科量" 巨高，炒股的自然都知道，这和对A股提高"含科量"的政策目标，是一脉相承的，显然是自上而下的传导，因为很多工 作，靠春晚导演组，是协调不到的。 2、虽然很多人会揶揄春晚，拿部分地区春晚收视率不高抬杠，但毫无疑问，在传统媒介逐渐凋敝（从大家都集中看几家电视台，变成了人人刷 不同的短视频），人民群众的爱好和目光焦点多元化的当下， 春晚就是全国人民的最大公约数 ，在这个舞台上做些宣传，显然效果是最好的 ——反面例子是这回美国的超级碗，有个波多黎各歌手全程用西班牙语表演"报菜名"，川宝发帖子吐槽，称其是史上最差表演，简直礼崩乐坏。 年初展望的时候《 2026年金融市场的十大预测 》，咱们提到过 K型分化 的问题，在第十点。 这回春节就有了个微观的体验，家族里有亲戚，去年在股市里赚的不 ...

帮大家梳理几个信息，都是来自公开的公告信息，没有添油加醋，很多东西，也请大家自行判断。 第一 ，昨天股价跳水后，深夜，公司发了一个公告，下图 ，提到，称关注到有媒体说公司是商业航天新龙头、火箭回收龙头等传闻，这些都是不实信 息，公司从未发表过相关观点，而且公司的业务里，相关的营收占比极低。 但是，1月中下旬，公司发了三条股价异常波动的公告，其中提到的说法都是，"公司未发现近期公共媒体报道了可能或已经对股价产生较大影响的未公开 信息"。 昨天我们提到了某蹭到商业航天概念的热门股，巨X索具，2个月的时间暴涨200%多，却在火箭回收的当天，上演了"套人的戏码"。 因为雪球今天发文聊到了，《 135万手封单泰山压顶，3倍大牛股一字跌停 》，而且该票也到了今天同花顺最热个股的第二位，因此，再聊几句。 核心还是觉得太离谱了，给投资者们再提个醒—— 远离炒作，远离炒作，远离炒作，不要看小作文炒股。 下图 ，今天，该票开盘一字跌停，尾盘卖一位置挂了150万手的卖单，差不多就是26亿的资金想夺路而逃，而目前总市值不过160亿出头。 | | | 00 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | -1.91 -10.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in the scale of bank wealth management products in January indicates a major shift in the industry, suggesting that the previous growth was unsustainable and that a transformation in business models is necessary [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Scale Changes - In January, the scale of 14 leading bank wealth management subsidiaries decreased by over 800 billion, which represents approximately 75% of the total wealth management industry scale, indicating a total industry drop of over 1 trillion [1][3]. - The scale drop of 1 trillion is substantial, especially when compared to a decrease of over 1200 billion in January 2024 and an increase of about 500 billion in January 2025, highlighting a significant shift in investor behavior [3]. Group 2: Business Model Transformation - The release of retained earnings and the end of the "ranking" business model for wealth management companies signal a need for a focus on research capabilities, product line layout, and channel service capabilities [4][7]. - The competition landscape in the wealth management industry is expected to undergo drastic changes, with a shift away from unsustainable business practices towards more robust investment strategies [5][7]. Group 3: Market Implications - The decline in wealth management scale reflects a healthy adjustment in the industry, as it removes inflated growth driven by unsustainable practices [6]. - The end of the previous business model will lead to a decrease in pure debt wealth management yields, which will lower the actual risk-free rate for Chinese residents, potentially increasing the valuation of risk assets [7]. - The transition in wealth management is not just a change for wealth management subsidiaries but requires a comprehensive transformation across management and sales channels [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - The current low-interest-rate environment necessitates a multi-asset investment approach, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation for both investment advisors and individual investors [7][8]. - The rise of multi-asset wealth management products indicates a shift in investor preferences, with a significant increase in the allocation towards fixed income and public funds [7].

Core Insights - The current fiscal and monetary policies are in a "honeymoon period," with a strong emphasis on "fiscal-financial coordination" to enhance overall policy effectiveness [2] - Protecting bank net interest margins is a core goal of monetary policy, with a focus on lowering bank funding costs and maintaining favorable credit interest rates [3] - Maintaining low volatility in the bond market is a desirable market objective, with measures to balance government bond supply and demand [4] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The report highlights the importance of fiscal and monetary policy coordination, stating that monetary policy has an "indirect incentive effect" while fiscal policy has a "direct incentive effect" [2] - The report indicates that the net investment of 5 trillion yuan through reverse repos and MLF in 2025 will effectively supplement the medium- and long-term funding gap [3] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is expanding its balance sheet as a result of counter-cyclical policies, with premium income projected at 6.1 trillion yuan in 2025, a 7.4% year-on-year increase, while total assets are expected to grow by 15.1% [4] Industry Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors, particularly the "online retail industry" and the pharmaceutical industry's core competitiveness [5] - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to enhance its international competitiveness through cross-border R&D cooperation and overseas clinical trials [5] Asset Management and Banking - The report discusses the shift of deposits from banks to non-bank financial institutions, indicating a trend where asset management products and bank deposits exhibit a "mutual exclusion" dynamic [5] - It is noted that the differentiation among banks is significant, with smaller banks facing challenges in attracting deposits due to lack of recognition from non-bank buyers [6] Market Trends - The report mentions the recent issuance of convertible bonds, with a notable 8 billion yuan issuance by Zhongke Zhuguang, reflecting changes in the supply-demand structure of the convertible bond market [8][9] - The report highlights the performance of the Hong Kong innovation drug sector, which saw a significant rebound, driven by strategic partnerships and market dynamics [24][31]

Group 1 - The core message of the article is the announcement of optimized refinancing measures by the three major exchanges, which is seen as a significant step in the ongoing structural reforms of the A-share market [1][2][3]. - The article emphasizes the importance of having confidence and patience in the current structural reforms of the A-share market, highlighting a clear top-level design framework and the unprecedented low interest rate environment as an optimal window for reform [5]. - The ultimate goal of the stock market is to promote the optimal allocation of resources in society and allow investors to share in the growth dividends of quality listed companies [6]. Group 2 - The article outlines several key investment considerations: 1. The long-term trend of differentiation in corporate operations, with a focus on identifying quality equity investments and recognizing the rise of Chinese industries as a global technology leader [6]. 2. The cyclical nature of financing policies, advising caution against speculative investments in smaller or poorer-performing stocks during the gradual exit of counter-cyclical policies [6]. 3. The unique aspect of the current refinancing policy optimization is the "full-process supervision," which will strictly control the allocation of raised funds [6]. 4. The measures are relatively favorable for Hong Kong stocks, indicating a potential balance in financing needs between A-shares and H-shares [6]. 5. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply-demand structure of convertible bonds in the medium term [6]. Group 3 - The market experienced a significant rebound, with most events already anticipated in previous analyses, including the rebound in the materials sector and the technology sector following the rise in US stocks [8][10]. - The Asia-Pacific region saw collective gains, with major indices in China, Japan, and South Korea rising over 4%, and A-shares driven by the solar and module sectors [10]. - The AI sector received additional momentum, with notable stock performances, such as a 36% increase in a specific AI stock since its listing [14][15]. Group 4 - The article discusses the rebound in the materials sector, particularly in precious metals, with A-shares in this sector rebounding over 2% despite a significant overall decline since the beginning of the adjustment period [20][23]. - The article notes the opening of a silver LOF after consecutive trading days of decline, indicating a significant trading volume and a high premium rate, suggesting speculative trading behavior [23]. - The article highlights the cyclical rotation in the market, suggesting a potential third phase involving energy sectors like oil and gas, based on historical patterns of asset rotation [28][30]. Group 5 - The article advises monitoring the movements of margin trading ahead of the Spring Festival, noting a significant net sell-off in margin trading over the past week [37][39]. - Historical data indicates that net selling in margin trading tends to increase in the last five trading days before the Spring Festival, suggesting a potential trend for the current year [39].

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant rebound in global markets, particularly in precious metals like gold and silver, and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, following a liquidity shock caused by the announcement of the new Federal Reserve chairperson [5][14]. - Silver has shown extreme volatility, with two instances of over 20% single-day declines in the past six trading days, followed by a rebound of over 21% from its low point [5][10]. - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term value in asset allocation, particularly highlighting gold as a stable investment choice for ordinary investors due to its clearer underlying logic and lower volatility [10][12]. Group 2 - The article notes a significant rebound in U.S. and Chinese stocks, with major indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rising around 2%, and the Dow Jones reaching a historical high [15][16]. - Concerns remain regarding the capital expenditures of major tech companies, which have been a source of market anxiety, particularly in relation to their ability to generate sufficient returns [21][29]. - The article highlights the competitive landscape among internet giants in Hong Kong, with Alibaba and Tencent engaging in aggressive promotional activities, raising concerns about their spending and market positioning [25][26]. Group 3 - The article suggests that the upcoming Chinese New Year may lead to a surge in tourism, indicating potential investment opportunities in the service consumption sector [39][46]. - It mentions the increasing popularity of certain travel destinations during the holiday season, emphasizing the need for investors to focus on structural opportunities within the consumption sector [46][47]. - The article advises investors to monitor the recovery of consumer spending relative to pre-pandemic levels, particularly in terms of average transaction values [46].

第一条 ，有读者提到，"牛市里，50%的溢价并不高"——坦率说，这话有对的地方，因为目前的A股，有大量的票，其市值可能是其实际价值的 几倍，甚至几十倍，这也是一种"隐形"的溢价，即使是中芯国际这种大票，A股的定价也相对港股溢价超80%；但是，这话在此处并不合理，因 为基金的溢价是"明牌"，是显性的，是注定会被套利资金消灭的对象，以QDII-ETF为例，最火的时候，纳指相关的ETF人均小几十个点的溢价， 而现在呢？即使QDII额度常年不足，目前也只有1只美股ETF溢价还在10%以上，其他统统被打下来了。 第二条 ，下图，这种声音并不罕见，作为博主，我当然知道，和亏钱的散户站在一起，怼天怼地怼空气，能获得共情，有流量，但然后呢？我 获得了流量，但亏钱的人除了一时的快感，下次能避免再次亏钱吗？现实很残酷，但只有正面现实，未来才能更进一步，对普通投资者来说，最 核心的，就是不懂的东西不要碰，亏了钱之后参与集体的情绪宣泄狂欢，并不会让你把亏的钱赚回来。 昨晚的话题，大家讨论的比较激烈，我也放了一些留言出来，其中，有三条，我觉得挺典型的，和大家再聊几句——注意，仅仅是就事论事，引 申出去讨论下市场存在的一些现象而已。 第 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent trading behavior of the silver LOF fund, which has seen significant price drops despite high premiums, indicating speculative trading behavior among investors [1][2] - The silver LOF experienced a third consecutive day of trading at the limit down, with a transaction volume of 240 million, reflecting a willingness among investors to take risks in hopes of finding buyers to absorb losses [2] - The article highlights the disconnect between the performance of silver prices and the fund's price, suggesting that investors may not fully understand the risks involved [5][8] Group 2 - The article identifies three main negative factors affecting the A-share and H-share markets, starting with the impact of AI advancements leading to fears of disruption in traditional software business models [10][12] - The second negative factor is Tencent's internal conflict regarding the "Yuanbao" red envelope feature, which has led to a decline in its stock price and reflects broader concerns about competition in the tech space [16][18] - The third negative factor involves ongoing technological changes in the optical module sector, which has resulted in significant stock price drops for key players in the industry [26][28] Group 3 - The article notes a concerning trend in financing, with a potential for a fifth consecutive day of net selling, which could indicate a broader market cooling [31][33] - It emphasizes the potential impact of reduced retail trading activity on previously high-flying stocks and sectors, suggesting that a market downturn could lead to significant corrections [33] Group 4 - The article mentions market movements influenced by external factors, such as Elon Musk's comments and actions, which have led to fluctuations in stock prices within the solar energy sector [36][40] - It also discusses regulatory changes in the automotive industry, specifically the phasing out of hidden door handles, which could affect the resale value of vehicles equipped with this feature [44]

Group 1 - The article discusses the introduction of staggered paid leave for employees and spring and autumn breaks for students in Jiangsu, which may enhance family travel opportunities and boost service consumption [1][3] - The article highlights the potential impact of AI on employment, marking the first formal acknowledgment by the government in a document, indicating a need to address automation's effects on jobs [4][6] - The global asset market experienced a significant rebound, attributed to the temporary alleviation of liquidity shocks, with various asset classes showing recovery rates [17][20] Group 2 - The article notes a dramatic increase in the premium rate of silver LOF, which reached around 90%, indicating a speculative environment where investors are willing to buy despite risks [8][10] - It mentions the adjustment of valuation methods by a fund company, leading to a record single-day drop of over 30%, reflecting the challenges faced by certain investment products [10][12] - The article reports a surge in new fund accounts, with January seeing a more than 120% month-on-month increase, suggesting a strong influx of retail investors into the market [35][38] Group 3 - The article discusses the impact of recent regulatory announcements on the Hong Kong tech sector, leading to significant declines in stock prices [21][32] - It highlights the performance of various global markets, with the South Korean market showing the highest recovery rate after a significant drop [19][20] - The article mentions the ongoing interest in space solar power due to recent developments by SpaceX, indicating a growing trend in commercial space and AI integration [39]

" 今天晒一下（账户收益）的目的，还是想严肃地强调一下， 这种表现，显然是不可能持续，不可能持续，不可能持续的，重要的事情说三 遍。 " 尤其是对 A 股而言，在火热的开门红过后，往后看，剩余的 11 个月，投资的赔率进一步被压低，如果你前期基础仓位不够，但被当下市场的赚 钱效应吸引，想大幅提高仓位， 一定要确保 " 姿势是合理的 + 资金是长期的 + 心态是佛系的 " ，并同步做好中短期内赚不到什么钱，甚至被市场 小幅毒打的准备。 还是此前说的， 降低预期，稳步稳打，不急不躁，徐徐图之。 " 昨晚，咱们开篇提了一嘴： ...... 第一，金价跌幅创40年之最，白银从高点回落40%，流动性冲击加剧。 下图，是从上周一到今天15点，现货黄金、现货白银、以及GDX（美股的黄金股ETF，今晚预计大幅补跌），三者的走势图，今天，金价一度跌 超10%，创下最近40年的单日最大跌幅，而从周四的高点到今天的15点， 金价、银价，分别回调近20%、40% ，非常夸张。 只有杠杆资金等连环爆仓，才会在短时间内产生如此巨大的振幅。 所以昨晚，我们提到，要关注其衍生出的对全球资产的流动性冲击——不过，这种冲击，总归是短期的，A股收 ...