文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 报告目录 报告正文 一、 强调"十五五"筹备，而非外部风险——经济循环最差的时候正在过去 基调变化 ：四月政治局开在对等关税冲击的初期，更加强调外部风险，通稿提及"外部冲击影响加大"、"要强化底线 思维，充分备足预案"、"统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"等。本次 7 月政治局更强调对"十五五"的筹备，有两整段 论述十五五的重要性与主要的指导思想，对上半年经济评价比较积极，通稿提及"主要经济指标表现良好"、"我国经济 展现强大活力和韧性"、"巩固拓展经济回升向好势头"等。 我们理解 ： 中国居民存款的"存"与"花"是最近几年的宏观核心矛盾——其决定了经济循环、货币政策、股债关系， 我们称之为"三支箭"。 参见报告《 看股做债 ➡ 股债反转 —— 居民存款搬家 " 三支箭 " 的研究脉络 》（ 20250727 ）。对于"三支箭"核心指标关系的梳 理，只要居民从"超额存"到"正常存"到"花"的趋势不逆转，我们基本可以判断—— 当下循环最差时正在过去、货币最 宽松时正在过去、债相对股性价比最优的时候正在过去。本次政治局会 ...

法律声明 华 创 证券研究所 定 位 为 面 向 专 业 投 资 者的研究团队，本资料仅适用于经认可的 专 业 投 资 者 ， 仅 供 在 新 媒 体 背景下研究 观 点 的 及 时 交 流 。 华 创证券不因任何订阅本资料的行为而将订 阅 人 视 为 公 司 的 客 户 。 普 通 投资者若使 用 本 资 料 ， 有 可 能 因 缺乏解读服务而对报告中的关键假设、评 级 、 目 标 价 等 内 容 产 生 理 解 上的歧义， 进 而 造 成 投 资 损 失 。 本资料来自华创证券研究所已经发布的研究报告，若对报告的摘编产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为 准。须注意的是，本资料仅代表报告发布当日的判断，相关的分析意见及推测可能会根据华创证券研究所后续发 布的研究报告在不发出通知的情形下做出更改。华创证券的其他业务部门或附属机构可能独立做出与本资料的意 见或建议不一致的投资决策。本资料所指的证券或金融工具的价格、价值及收入可涨可跌，以往的表现不应作为 日后表现的显示及担保。本资料仅供订阅人参考之用，不是或不应被视为出售、购买或认购证券或其它金融工具 的要约或要约邀请。订阅人不应单纯依靠本资料的信息而取代自身 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 韩港（微信 HGK1366） 核心观点 2025 年 7 月，中央财经委提出"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争"，那么当前治理反内卷有哪些法制化工 具？我们梳理，至少包含三个层面 一是在全国层面规范政府、企业的内卷行为 ，对于政府，主要是在全国统一大市场框架下引入公平竞争审 查、规范违规补贴等，对于企业，多是规范低价竞争。 二是在产业层面 ，调整产业结构、规范特定产业发展 ； 三是在具体产品层面 ，通过提高国家强制性标准来推动落后产能退出 ，目前来看，以上游的化工、煤炭等 产品为主，此外，据市场监管总局，针对新三样的标准提升正在进行中。 报告摘要 一、国家层面：规范政府、企业行为 相关的法制化工具可能至少包括 5 个 ，包括《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》、《中华人民共和国反垄 断法》、《中华人民共和国价格法》、《公平竞争审查条例》、《全国统一大市场建设指引 ( 试行 ) 》，前 两项法律的约束对象包括政府与企业、第三项以约束企业为主，第四、五项以约束政府为主。 以《中华人民 ...

Group 1: Capital Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the importance of stabilizing the capital market and reforming it to enhance market vitality, focusing on three main tasks: consolidating market recovery, deepening reforms, and promoting long-term capital inflow [1][9] - The CSRC highlighted the need for a stable and healthy market environment, supported by the certainty of high-quality economic development and asset valuation recovery [1][9] Group 2: Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start its closure operations on December 18, 2025, with a focus on implementing zero-tariff policies and optimizing tax arrangements to support diverse consumer needs [1][7] - The government plans to continue the duty-free shopping policy for Hainan, adjusting it to meet the evolving shopping demands of consumers [1][7] Group 3: Price Law Revisions - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released a draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to improve government pricing regulations and clarify standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, including low-price dumping [2][8] - The draft also seeks to enhance legal responsibilities for price violations, increasing penalties for non-compliance with pricing regulations [2][8] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Updates - The Ministry of Finance announced the allocation of 69 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the "old for new" consumption initiative, with additional funds to be distributed in October [2][10] - The fiscal measures aim to stimulate consumption and support economic recovery [2][10] Group 5: Energy Efficiency and Carbon Emission Regulations - The NDRC introduced new guidelines for energy efficiency reviews and carbon emission evaluations for fixed asset investment projects, establishing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for energy review authority [2][10][11] - Projects with significant energy consumption will undergo comprehensive reviews to ensure compliance with energy-saving and carbon reduction goals [2][10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises in June has narrowed its decline, indicating a potential stabilization in the return on assets (ROA) [1][19] - In June, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous decline of 9.1% [19] - The inventory level as of June increased by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly down from 3.5% in the previous month [19] Group 2 - The overall industrial profit margin in June was 5.96%, compared to 6.33% in the same period last year [19] - The manufacturing sector showed a profit growth of 1.43% in June, a significant recovery from the previous decline of 4.05% [23] - The automotive industry experienced a remarkable profit increase of 96.8% due to promotional activities and investment returns [23] Group 3 - The ROA for industrial enterprises in June was 4.14%, down from 4.18% in the previous month, indicating a cumulative decline of 0.16% for the year [3][8] - Factors affecting ROA include a 5.1% growth in asset speed and a 1.8% decline in profit growth from January to June [3][8] - The manufacturing upstream profit margin was 4.13% in June, lower than the 4.2% recorded in the same month last year [10][11] Group 4 - The manufacturing midstream profit margin improved to 6.35% in June, compared to 6.27% in the same period last year [10][11] - The manufacturing downstream profit margin was 5.51% in June, down from 6.63% a year earlier, indicating a need for monitoring consumer behavior [11][19] - The overall revenue growth for industrial enterprises was 1.0% in June, remaining stable compared to May [10][19]

法律声明 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：韩港 （HGK1366） 华 创 证券研究所 定 位 为 面 向 专 业 投 资 者的研究团队，本资料仅适用于经认可的 专 业 投 资 者 ， 仅 供 在 新 媒 体 背景下研究 观 点 的 及 时 交 流 。 华 创证券不因任何订阅本资料的行为而将订 阅 人 视 为 公 司 的 客 户 。 普 通 投资者若使 用 本 资 料 ， 有 可 能 因 缺乏解读服务而对报告中的关键假设、评 级 、 目 标 价 等 内 容 产 生 理 解 上的歧义， 进 而 造 成 投 资 损 失 。 根据《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》及配套指引，本资料仅面向华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本资料 进行任何形式的转发。若您不是华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿订阅、接收或使用本资料中的信息。本资料难 以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。感谢您的理解与配合。 本资料来自华创证券研究所已经发布的研究报告，若对报告的摘编产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为 准。须注意的是，本资料仅代表报告发布当日的判 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal performance in the first half of the year, highlighting strong fiscal spending but a general lack of perceived impact on the economy, suggesting a need for targeted policies to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal measures [5][10][34]. Group 1: Fiscal Strength in the First Half - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate in the first half of the year was 8.9%, exceeding the annual target growth rate of approximately 3.4% to 5.1% [5][18]. - The fiscal strength observed in the first half is considered the strongest since 2022, with historical comparisons showing varied growth rates from 2018 to 2024 [5][18]. Group 2: Perception of Fiscal Impact - Despite strong fiscal spending, the perceived impact on the economy was limited, attributed to insufficient project construction despite rapid government debt issuance [6][10]. - The net financing of government bonds reached 7.69 trillion yuan in the first half, marking a 55.5% progress rate, the highest since 2022 [6][20]. Group 3: Government Debt Structure - The structure of government debt issuance showed a preference for special refinancing bonds (90%) over general bonds and special bonds for project construction, which were lower at 47.5% and 49.1% respectively [7][22]. - The issuance of special bonds for project capital was 191.7 billion yuan, a 16% increase year-on-year, but significantly lower than the overall growth of special bonds [7][23]. Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure Structure - Fiscal expenditure focused on technology and livelihood, with infrastructure spending declining by 5.5% [8][26]. - Public fiscal expenditure growth rates were 9.2% for science and technology, 6.4% for livelihood, and negative for infrastructure [8][26]. Group 5: Credit Expansion and Local Government Actions - Local credit expansion showed a contraction in major provinces, indicating a cautious approach to financing [9][31]. - The reduction in the number of financing platforms was noted, which supports the transformation of these platforms towards more sustainable financing models [9][32]. Group 6: Outlook for the Second Half - The focus for the second half of the year is on incremental policies, with expectations of improved fiscal perception due to new policy tools and project support [10][35]. - Historical patterns suggest that when fiscal revenues fall short, incremental policies are typically introduced to compensate [13][41]. Group 7: June Fiscal Data Review - In June, fiscal revenue showed a slight decline of 0.3%, with tax revenue increasing for three consecutive months, driven by specific sectors like transportation and scientific research [15][46]. - Government fund income growth was notably high at 20.8%, primarily due to increased land sales [15][66].

Core Viewpoints - The article highlights significant economic data from the US and Eurozone, indicating mixed signals in economic activity and demand trends [2][4][12] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity conditions and employment statistics as indicators of economic health [9][25] Group 1: Important Data Review - In June, US durable goods orders saw a preliminary month-on-month decline of 9.3%, the largest drop since April 2020, while the manufacturing PMI for July hit a new low of 49.5, the lowest since December 2024 [12] - Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for July reached its highest level since July 2022 at 49.8, with service PMI unexpectedly rising to 51.2 [12] - A trade agreement was reached between the US and Japan, reducing tariffs on certain goods and increasing US rice imports [12][13] Group 2: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index fell to 2.22% from 2.34% in the previous week, indicating a decline in economic activity [15] - Germany's WAI index also decreased to -0.35% from -0.30% [15] Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate marginally decreased to 5.1% from 5.2% [17] - Mortgage rates in the US fell slightly, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.74%, down from 6.75% the previous week, leading to a 0.8% increase in mortgage applications [20] Group 4: Employment - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased to 217,000 from 221,000 the previous week, while continuing claims rose to 1.955 million from 1.951 million [25] Group 5: Prices - Commodity prices fell, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 302.25, down 1.3% week-on-week [26] - US gasoline prices remained stable at $3.02 per gallon [26] Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have loosened, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US rising to 0.644 from 0.549 [30] - Offshore dollar liquidity improved, with the 3-month basis swap for the yen against the dollar rising to -22.3589 basis points [34] Group 7: Bond Yield Spreads - The 10-year bond yield spreads between the US and Eurozone, as well as between the US and Japan, have narrowed [36]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 一、景气向上 ： 1 、物价："反内卷"情绪延续，国内资源品价格继续大幅上涨。 山西产动力末煤 (Q5500) 秦皇岛港 平仓价、京唐港山西主焦煤库提价、钢之家焦炭价格指数、螺纹钢上海现货价、铁矿石价格指数 :62%Fe:CFR 中国北方、南华玻璃指数分别上涨 1.7% 、 16.7% 、 7.7% 、 5.5% 、 4.3% 、 26% 。 2 、土地溢价率回升。 7 月 20 日当周，百城土地溢价率回升至 7.8% ，近三周平均为 6.5% 。 6 月 为 5.47% 。 3 、贸易：港口集装箱吞吐量有所反弹 。 7 月 20 日当周，我国港口集装箱吞吐量环比 +2.6% ，上 周为 -0.9% ；四周累计同比为 4.3% ，上周为 4.4% 。 二、景气向下： 1 、华创宏观 WEI 指数继续回落。 截至 7 月 20 日， WEI 指数为 5.84% ，较 7 月 13 日下行 0.12% 。 4 月以来，上行的主要因素是沥青开工率、乘用车批零。 2 、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The core contradiction in China's macroeconomic landscape in recent years is the relationship between residents' savings and spending, which influences economic circulation, monetary policy, and the relationship between stocks and bonds, referred to as the "three arrows" [2] Group 1: Changes in Residents' Savings - Residents' savings are transitioning from "excessive saving" to "normal saving" and then to "spending," indicating an improvement in economic circulation [2][10] - The shift in residents' savings will likely lead to a pulse-like movement in non-bank deposits, which could drive asset prices up rapidly [3] - The increase in non-bank deposits, viewed as "under-allocated" funds, has the potential to push asset prices higher [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - As residents begin to spend their savings, the necessity for monetary policy to remain loose diminishes, allowing for a tighter monetary stance [4][14] - The transition from saving to spending by residents will likely reduce the need for further monetary easing by the central bank, especially if it leads to improved corporate profits and investment [13][14] Group 3: Stock and Bond Market Dynamics - The relationship between stocks and bonds will shift towards favoring stocks as residents' spending increases, leading to a "look at stocks, do bonds" strategy rather than a simultaneous bull market in both [16][17] - The current environment suggests that stocks are becoming more attractive compared to bonds, with a notable increase in the Sharpe ratio for stocks relative to bonds [18] - The divergence in the Sharpe ratio between stocks and bonds indicates a significant recovery in the attractiveness of equity investments [18]