Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends and potential future movements of the RMB exchange rate, highlighting the similarities and differences with the 2018-2019 period, and emphasizes the importance of economic fundamentals in determining the exchange rate trajectory [4][5][9]. Historical Comparison - The current macroeconomic backdrop for RMB appreciation shares similarities with the period from November 2018 to June 2019, particularly in terms of improved expectations for US-China relations and the performance of RMB assets despite a lack of clear economic recovery signals [5]. - From November 2018 to June 2019, the RMB appreciated from 6.97 to around 6.7, while the current appreciation from the peak of 7.35 on April 9, 2025, has reached the 7.11-7.12 range, indicating a comparable magnitude of appreciation [5]. Current Special Factors - There is a significant backlog of unconverted foreign exchange, estimated at approximately $700-800 billion, which could amplify exchange rate fluctuations and create short-term market movements [7]. - The backlog is concentrated in two key exchange rate ranges: $400-500 billion in the 7.2-7.5 range and $200-300 billion in the 6.9-7.2 range, which may trigger a surge in conversions if the RMB appreciates beyond these levels [7][8]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that a trend of sustained RMB appreciation is unlikely without clear economic signals, as historical trends in 2017 and 2020 were supported by significant improvements in economic fundamentals, particularly PMI and corporate conversion rates [9][10]. - Even if the economic fundamentals improve, the initial stages of appreciation may be moderated by policy measures to prevent excessive volatility and capital inflows, which could complicate cross-border capital management [10][14]. - The current global trade environment necessitates a balanced approach to maintain stable trade relations with the US while expanding non-US trade, suggesting that a stable exchange rate may be the optimal strategy [14].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生（18482259975） 事 项 8月份，CPI同比下降0.4%，预期降0.2%，前值0%；核心CPI同比上涨0.9%，前值上涨0.8%。PPI同比下降 2.9%，预期下降2.9%，前值下降3.6%。 报 告 摘 要 8月物价数据点评：促消费和反内卷影响下，部分价格呈现积极变化 1、整体读数来看，PPI同比降幅明显收窄 ，我们在《 PPI同比或开启第二轮回升周期 》中提出，PPI同比 大概率将从8月份开启第二轮回升周期，目前已初步印证。 CPI同比回落幅度较大，低于市场预期 ，主要 受：1）去年高温多雨天气带来的食品价格高基数；2）供给偏多影响下，本月食品价格涨幅弱于季节性； 3）油价下跌。CPI基本符合我们预期《 外需依然偏强——8月经济数据前瞻 》。 值得注意的是，在促消费 带来的耐用品价格改善影响下，我们估算的核心商品同比从年初以来的0%回升至1.5%，创2021年以来的 新高 （图4）。 光伏行业价格对PPI的影响有多大？ 自7月初以来，在反内卷政策的影响下，光伏行业价格明显反弹，光伏行业综 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪（微信 SuperSummerSnow） 事项 8 月，以美元计价中国出口同比 4.4% ，低于彭博一致预期 5% ， 7 月为 7.2% ；进口同比 1.3% ，低于彭博一致预期 3% ， 7 月为 4.1% 。 核心观点 1 、 8 月出口低于我们的预测，主要是我们计入了较高的非美增速预期，认为其能对冲对美出口下滑的影响，但非洲出口增速实际下降较快。 2 、 结合环比来看，非洲出口回落背后或确有增长动能的客观趋弱（ 6 月开始中国对非洲出口环比持续弱于过去十年同期均值， 8 月缺口有所扩大），而除美 国、欧盟、东盟、非洲以外的其他地区出口回落背后或受基数影响较大（ 8 月出口环比较历史同期均值相差无几）。但，受限于数据可得性，无法对非洲 8 月出 口作进一步拆解分析，后续其需求是否持续回落仍待进一步观察。 3 、后续出口展望： 观察几个全球和欧美的制造业（或者库存周期）的领先指标，或指向外需整体平稳，后续有望回暖，特别是四季度美国可能释放上行弹性 ( 图 6-7) 。在外需的支撑下，中国出口具备韧性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of new policy financial tools aims to support technology innovation, expand consumption, and stabilize foreign trade, addressing the issue of insufficient project capital and matching funds [4][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction: What are "New Policy Financial Tools"? - The new policy financial tools are designed to solve the problem of insufficient project capital and matching funds, as highlighted in the April Politburo meeting [4][16]. - The tools are expected to be implemented through market mechanisms, with policy banks as the main operators and potential low-cost funding support from the central bank [2][4]. 2. Operational Mechanism: How will it operate? - The operation may follow a market-oriented approach, with strict project reviews by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) [5][20]. - Policy banks are likely to be the main operators, participating in project presentations and matching funds [6][20]. - The central bank may provide funding support through the PSL (Pledged Supplementary Lending) mechanism [6][21]. - There is a clear intention to direct support towards private enterprises, with a specific allocation of 100 billion yuan for this purpose [6][21]. 3. Historical Review: What similar tools have existed? - Previous similar tools include the policy development financial tools from 2022, which focused on major infrastructure and technology innovation projects, with a total funding of 739.9 billion yuan [23][24]. - The special construction funds from 2015-2017 also served a similar purpose, with a total investment of 2 trillion yuan across various infrastructure projects [27][30]. 4. Scale Perception: How large might it be? - The total scale of the new policy financial tools is estimated to be around 500 billion yuan, although the exact allocation for this year remains to be seen [8][31]. 5. Key Directions: What are the "Eight Major Areas"? - The focus areas include digital economy, green low-carbon initiatives, artificial intelligence, consumption, and urban renewal, among others [9][32][33]. 6. Impact Measurement: How much will it drive fixed asset investment? - The leverage effect of the new policy financial tools is estimated to be over 10 times, potentially driving an investment of 5 trillion yuan, which would account for about 10% of the fixed asset investment in 2024 [10][34][35].

近一周，政策出台不多，主要关注以下内容： 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 报告正文 一、 近一周党中央及国务院高层重要行程 近一周（ 9 月 1 日至 7 日） ，党中央及国务院高层重要行程，参见如下表格。 4 、反腐：财政部、国资委、证监会等部委做出部署 。 1 ） 9 月 3 日， 财政部党组与驻部纪检监察组召开 2025 年年中会商会议，研究部署全面从严治党工作 。 2 ） 9 月 4 日 ，国务院国资委党委 2025 年第一轮巡 视完成反馈，提出" 要进一步强化系统整治，着力补齐短板弱项，做到以巡促改、以巡促建、以巡促治 … 党委书记要负首责、负总责"。 3 ） 9 月 6 日 ，证监会党委召开会议，坚决拥护党中央对易会满进行纪律 审查和监察调查的决定。会议强调，"始终保持战略定力和高压态势， 坚决打好反腐败斗争攻坚战持久战总 体战…要持续巩固拓展深入贯彻中央八项规定精神学习教育成果 ，推进中央巡视整改常态化长效化"。 5 、产业：涉及服务消费（体育）、电子信息、十五五部署（人工智能、机器 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪（微信 SuperSummerSnow） 核心观点 1 、今年上半年欧元区经济增速飙升，其中爱尔兰贡献大部分，背后受跨国企业活动影响较大，并不能真实反映欧元区经济修复动能，剔除爱尔兰以后，欧元区经 济整体呈温和复苏态势。 2 、往后看，目前 GDP 月频同步指标显示 Q3 欧元区经济增速或温和回升。领先指标则指向更远的后续可能维持弱复苏态势。 3 、拆分经济组分来看，国内私人需求方面，私人消费与固投或均缺乏进一步上行弹性，库存投资或处于上行周期中；海外需求方面，出口短期可能面临美国需求 前置后的退坡风险（特别是考虑到本轮美国抢进口从欧元区抢的幅度较大），中期或面临制造业竞争压力；财政方面，德国的扩张计划若落地或刺激一定需求，但 法国仍计划实施财政整顿，且目前面临政府倒台风险，财政不确定性较高，市场对于未来两年欧元区整体赤字率持收缩预期。 报告摘要 一、欧元区经济指标全扫描：增长动能如何？ 今年以来，欧元区综合 PMI 从 49.6% 震荡回升至 8 月 51% ，欧元区季调后实际 GDP 同比由 202 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生（18482259975） 报 告 摘 要 8月非农数据简述 1、新增非农再次低于预期 。新增非农2.2万，预期7.5万。6月数据从1.4万下修至-1.3万，7月数据从7.3万上修至7.9万。就业增长主要集中在2个行业，教育保健 服务（+4.6万，前值+7.7万）、休闲和酒店（+2.8万，前值+0.6万），制造业、专业和商业服务、政府部门的就业萎缩。就业增长广度本月有所改善，但整体依 然维持在非衰退时期的历史低位。 2、失业率小幅上行 ，录得4.3%（4.324%），前值4.2%（4.248%），预期4.3%。本月供需实际上边际有所改善：劳动参与率回升0.1个百分点至62.3%，家庭 调查口径的新增就业增长28.8万，此前三个月则是平均减少86.3万，只是需求边际改善幅度不及供给，因此失业率小幅上行。 3、时薪增速符合预期 。时薪环比0.3%，预期0.3%，前值0.3%。时薪同比增速3.7%，预期3.8%，前值3.9%。周工时持平于34.2小时，处于2015年以来的低位 水平。周薪环比增长0.3%，上 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 景气向上： 利率： 债券震荡偏弱。 截至 9 月 5 日， 1 年期、 5 年期、 10 年期国债收益率分别报 1.3959% 、 1.6121% 、 1.8260% ，较 8 月 29 日环比分别变化 +2.61bps 、 -2.01bps 、 -1.19bps 。 报告目录 | 每周经济观察… | | --- | | (一) 华创宏观 WEI 指数维持在相对高位 . | | (二)资产:股债夏普比率差继续上行 | | (三)需求:乘用车零售增速回落,她产销售增速转正… | | (四)生产:石油沥青装置开工率连续三周回落 . | | (五)贸易:摩根大通全球制造业 PMI 回升至荣枯线上………………………………………… 7 | | (六)物价:金涨油跌,多晶硅大幅反弹……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 10 | | ( ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 2025 年上半年，制造业上市公司可支配收入为 2828 亿，去年同期为 263 亿。从可支配收入的构成来看， 主要是商品收支、员工报酬（含股息）两项体量较大。 2025 年上半年相比 2024 年上半年，员工报酬（含 股息）同比增长 3.0% ，但商品收支同比增长 17.8% 。从行业来看（中信二级），可支配收入改善较为明 显的是电源设备、发电及电网、光学光电、工业金属、白色家电、普钢等。可支配收入相比去年有所走弱 的是煤炭、酒类、消费电子、食品、商用车等。 三、积极变化 2 ：资本支出强度有所下降 核心观点 本篇报告结合上市公司的中报数据，分析上市公司的现金流。我们构建类似居民部门资金流向的分析框 架，对企业部门的资金流入流出予以分析。其流入来自可支配收入（经营性业务） + 股权融资 + 债权融资 + 存量储蓄损耗，其流出包括资本开支和金融投资。制造业上市公司的中报表明，今年上半年，企业的可 支配收入大幅好转、资本开支强度有所下降、融资结构中股权融资占比有所提高。 报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an analysis of global asset performance and macroeconomic indicators, highlighting trends in various markets and potential investment opportunities. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In August, global asset performance ranked as follows: global stocks (2.45%) > global bonds (1.45%) > RMB (0.97%) > 0% > commodities (-0.77%) > USD (-2.20%) [2] - The Bloomberg Federal Reserve sentiment index has declined, which may lead to a decrease in US Treasury yields [4][11] - The 10-year government bond yield spread between France and Italy has narrowed to near zero, indicating a reassessment of fiscal and political risks in both countries [4][15] Group 2: Market Trends and Fund Manager Behavior - There is a divergence between cyclical and defensive sectors in the US stock market, with cyclical stocks outperforming despite a weak ISM manufacturing PMI [4][17] - Global fund managers have increased their allocations to emerging markets and equities while reducing exposure to pharmaceuticals, the Eurozone, and REITs [4][20] Group 3: Credit and Commodity Insights - The credit impulse index in China has been rising, which may limit the upward momentum of the USD index [4][23] - Speculative net positions in WTI crude oil futures have dropped to the lowest level since 2012, reflecting cautious market sentiment towards oil prices [4][25] - The copper-to-oil ratio has been increasing, which may positively impact the CSI 300 index, indicating stronger industrial activity in China [4][27] Group 4: Currency and Gold Market Dynamics - The RMB has appreciated significantly, reaching its highest level since November 2024, driven by easing trade tensions and strong export performance [4][33] - Since 2025, the MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF has significantly outperformed spot gold, showcasing strong momentum in gold mining stocks due to rising gold prices and improved operational efficiencies [4][36]