Economic Outlook - The Huachuang Macro WEI index remains high at 9.38% as of February 1, 2026, down from 10.77% on January 25, indicating a general recovery since November [8] - The increase in the WEI index is primarily driven by domestic demand, particularly in movie box office and residential property transaction areas [8] Asset Performance - The stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference is at 3.69, indicating a high relative value for stocks compared to bonds, while the bond-stock yield difference is at a historical low of 0.06% [12] Demand Analysis - Residential property sales remain weak, with a 27% year-on-year decline in transaction area for 67 cities as of February 6, 2026, worsening from a 17% decline in January [3][16] - Passenger car retail sales saw a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% in January, despite a month-on-month decline of 20.4% [2][16] Production Insights - Cement shipment rates are low at 26.3% as of February 6, 2026, stable compared to the previous week but better than 22.8% year-on-year [3][21] - The operating rate for asphalt plants has decreased to 24.5%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week and 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [3][21] Trade Developments - The global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in January, up from 50.4, indicating a recovery in global trade demand [25] - China's port container throughput increased by 12.4% week-on-week as of February 2, 2026, with a significant year-on-year increase of 15% [25] Price Trends - Major commodity prices have declined, with the South China comprehensive index down 4.5% and the RJ/CRB commodity price index down 3.3% [44] - Oil prices fell, with Brent crude at $68.1 per barrel, down 3.7%, and WTI crude at $63.6 per barrel, down 2.5% [44][45] Interest Rates and Debt - As of February 6, 2026, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds are 1.3207%, 1.5552%, and 1.8102%, respectively, with slight fluctuations compared to January 30 [4][59] - A total of 256.6 billion yuan in new local government bonds is planned for issuance in the week of February 9, 2026 [49]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the Chinese government's focus on effective investment and economic stability as it enters the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the importance of practical planning and execution in various sectors [2][9]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - On February 2, the Premier emphasized the need for local governments to create the "14th Five-Year Plan" with a focus on practicality and system integration, advocating for concise and effective planning at the grassroots level [2]. - On February 6, the State Council held a meeting to discuss policies for promoting effective investment, stressing the importance of planning in infrastructure, urban renewal, and emerging industries [9]. - The Premier highlighted the need for macroeconomic policies to be proactive, ensuring timely allocation of fiscal funds and coordination in project construction to achieve annual targets [10]. Group 2: Agricultural Policies - On February 3, the Central Committee issued a document focusing on agricultural modernization and rural revitalization, including a new round of grain production enhancement actions and the integration of AI in agriculture [3][12]. - The implementation opinions from the Ministry of Agriculture emphasized the need for comprehensive management of pig production and the promotion of high-standard farmland construction [14]. Group 3: Financial Regulations - On February 6, the central bank and eight departments issued a notice to further prevent and manage risks related to virtual currencies, reinforcing a strict prohibition on domestic virtual currency activities [4][13]. - The notice also outlined regulations for domestic entities engaging in overseas virtual currency activities, emphasizing the need for strict compliance with regulatory requirements [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the GDP targets and economic performance of various provinces in China for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" periods, highlighting adjustments in growth expectations and specific economic goals for 2026. Group 1: GDP Targets and Adjustments - Beijing has set a new GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% annually, aiming for better results [7] - Xinjiang's target is adjusted to an annual growth of 5.5%-6% [7] - Hunan has lowered its target by 0.5-1 percentage points to 5%-5.5% [9] - Jiangsu's target is down by 0.5 percentage points to around 5% [9] - Guangdong's target remains stable at around 5% [9] - Gansu and Guizhou have both reduced their targets by 1.5 and 2 percentage points respectively [9] Group 2: Economic Performance in 2025 - Jiangsu's GDP grew by 5.3% in 2025, maintaining the highest increment nationally [12] - Sichuan's GDP growth was 5.5%, ranking fifth in total and growth rate [19] - Shanghai's GDP increased by 5.4%, with significant growth in industrial investment [27] - Hunan's GDP growth was 4.8%, with a notable decline in fixed asset investment [31] Group 3: 2026 Economic Goals - Jiangsu aims for a GDP growth of around 5% in 2026, with a focus on better results [13] - Sichuan targets a GDP growth of approximately 5.5% for 2026 [20] - Shanghai's GDP target for 2026 is set at around 5% [27] - Hunan's GDP goal is around 5%, with an emphasis on achieving better outcomes [33] Group 4: Investment and Consumption - Jiangsu's fixed asset investment target for 2026 is not yet disclosed, following a 12.7% decline in 2025 [17] - Hunan's fixed asset investment is expected to achieve positive growth in 2026 [37] - Consumption in Jiangsu is targeted to grow by around 5% in 2026, down from 5.5% in 2025 [15] - Sichuan's social retail sales target for 2026 is not yet disclosed, with a 2025 goal of 5% [23] Group 5: Key Focus Areas for 2026 - Jiangsu plans to enhance consumption through cultural and tourism integration [13] - Sichuan aims to develop the cultural tourism industry as a pillar of economic growth [20] - Hunan will focus on digital economy growth and infrastructure projects [31] - Shanghai will prioritize major engineering investments and digital economy initiatives [27]

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 2026年1月全球大类资产总体表现为：大宗商品（9.06%）>全球股票（3.02%）>全球债券（0.94%）>人民币（0.46%）> 0%>美元（-1.35%）。 报告摘要 十张图速览全球资产脉络。 1、凯文·沃什获特朗普提名引发全球资产动荡 。凯文·沃什被提名为美联储主席，可能标志着该机构政策方向的重大转变，他主张对美联储的资产负债表、政策框 架及经济角色进行全面重构。其核心观点包括重整规模达6.6万亿美元的资产组合，认为其过于庞大，并应与财政部达成新协议以降低联储在货币市场的影响力。 美元指数在1月27日跌至阶段性低点后，随着沃什提名概率上升后迅速反弹，市场开始计入更紧缩的货币政策或更负责任的财政纪律，这对美元构成支撑；与此同 时，美股、黄金则遭遇了震荡回调，主要是受到货币政策紧缩预期的影响。 2、美债期权偏度上行或正在对冲收益率上行风险 。美国国债期货投机性净头寸以及美债利率隐含期权波动率偏度是我们观测市场利率变动预期的观测指标。其 中，长期美债市场中，隐含期权波动率偏斜度的 ...

Group 1: GDP Targets - This year, Guangdong Province has set a range target for GDP growth for the first time in seven years, with a target of 4.5%-5.5% [3][21] - A total of 15 provinces have lowered their GDP targets by 0.5 percentage points, while 12 provinces have kept their targets stable compared to last year [15][21] - The weighted average GDP growth target for 29 provinces is estimated to be 5.0%, slightly down from 5.24% last year [3][15] Group 2: Investment Trends - Major project investment growth in six economic provinces has decreased by 0.7% this year, compared to a growth of 3% last year [5][25] - Non-economic provinces like Fujian, Shanghai, Jiangxi, and Shaanxi have seen a significant decline in major project investment growth, with a combined decrease of 8.1% this year [5][25] - Investment in real estate, particularly in urban village and old community renovations, has shown significant declines in several provinces, such as Zhejiang and Chongqing [6][30] Group 3: Funding Sources - There are two potential improvements in investment funding: increased issuance of policy financial tools and optimization of special bond usage [7][33] - Provinces like Guangdong have committed to regular issuance of policy financial tools, indicating a potential increase in central government support [7][33] - Some provinces, including Henan and Jilin, are focusing on optimizing the use of special bonds to enhance project funding [7][33] Group 4: Investment Directions - Investment focus this year is shifting towards areas such as public welfare, new infrastructure represented by computing power, and urban renewal projects [8][36] - Provinces like Guangdong and Shandong are increasing investments in public welfare projects, with Shandong aiming to maintain 80% of fiscal spending on public welfare [8][36] - New infrastructure projects related to computing power are being prioritized in several provinces, including Guangdong and Hubei [8][36] Group 5: Industry Focus - There is an increased emphasis on AI and related technologies, with at least 27 provinces making deployments in this area [9] - Other industries receiving attention include low-altitude economy, hydrogen energy, nuclear energy, and biomedicine [9] Group 6: Consumption Trends - There is a stronger focus on service consumption, particularly in cultural tourism, events, inbound tourism, and new consumption trends [10] - Provinces are emphasizing the importance of consumer spending in areas such as entertainment, AI consumption, and the metaverse [10] Group 7: Ecological Construction - The focus of ecological targets has shifted from energy consumption constraints to carbon emission restrictions [11] - Local governments are concentrating on enhancing the application of new energy in the power sector [11] Group 8: Reforms - Multiple provinces have expressed intentions to integrate into the construction of a unified national market [12][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant shifts in fiscal policy and revenue structures in China, highlighting three key transitions: debt expression, tax direction, and expenditure structure, which may influence investor perceptions for 2026 [2][4][11]. Group 1: Fiscal Transitions - The debt expression transition indicates a shift from counter-cyclical to cross-cyclical adjustments, with the narrow deficit rate increasing by 1 percentage point to 4% and new government debt reaching 11.86 trillion yuan, a 2.9 trillion yuan increase from the previous year [4][18]. - By the end of 2025, the focus will shift to maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, moving away from previous increases [5][18]. - The capital market's focus is expected to shift towards fiscal revenue, particularly tax revenue, in 2026 [6][18]. Group 2: Tax Direction Transition - In 2025, both revenue accounts are projected to fall short of budget targets, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, compared to a 2% decline in 2024, primarily due to significant drops in land sales and non-tax revenues [7][21]. - Tax revenue quality is expected to improve, with tax revenue showing a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, contrasting with a 3.4% decline in 2024, leading to a rise in tax revenue's share of public fiscal income to 81.6%, the highest since 2000 [7][21][22]. - Nearly 90% of regions are expected to see revenue growth in 2025, with local public budget revenue projected at 12.21 trillion yuan, a 2.4% increase from 2024 [8][22]. Group 3: Expenditure Structure Transition - The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure is expected to align more closely with nominal GDP growth, projected at 3.7% for 2025, compared to 2.7% in 2024 [11][31]. - A significant shift in expenditure structure is noted, moving from material investments to human investments, with social welfare and health expenditures increasing by 4.5% and 4.8% respectively, while infrastructure spending is expected to decline by 7.8% [11][12][31]. - The proportion of new special bonds used for non-project investments has risen sharply to 30% in 2025, compared to less than 5% in previous years, indicating a shift in funding priorities [12][32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in manufacturing PMI and highlights the positive signals in factory prices, indicating potential recovery in the midstream sector due to improved supply-demand dynamics and resilient overseas exports [2][3][4]. Group 1: PMI Data - The manufacturing PMI for January is reported at 49.3%, down from 50.1% in the previous month. Key sub-indices include: - Production index at 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points from 51.7% - New orders index at 49.2%, down from 50.8% - New export orders index at 47.8%, down from 49.0% - Employment index at 48.1%, slightly down from 48.2% - Supplier delivery time index at 50.1%, down from 50.2% - Raw material inventory index at 47.4%, down from 47.8% [2][17][18]. Group 2: Price Indicators - Positive signals in price indicators are noted, including: - The PMI factory price index at 50.6%, marking the first rise above the critical point in nearly 20 months. Industries such as non-ferrous metal smelting and electrical machinery show significant increases in both raw material purchase prices and factory prices, exceeding 55.0% [5][14]. - The BCI consumer price expectations index surged to 51.5%, the first rise above the critical point in 28 months, while the profit expectations index reached 52.66%, the first rise above the critical point in 11 months [5][14]. - Micro-level price increases are observed in various sectors, including semiconductors, photovoltaic, and home appliances, with notable price hikes reported by companies like Zhongwei Semiconductor and Midea [6][15]. Group 3: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The article highlights a decrease in the proportion of companies reporting insufficient demand, with the manufacturing sector's percentage dropping to 54.9% in January from 64.3% in the previous month. This suggests an improvement in supply-demand dynamics [4][11]. - The midstream growth rate difference reached 10.4%, up from 8.1%, indicating a positive trend in demand relative to investment growth [4][11].

Overall Situation - The profit growth rate of S&P 500 companies has declined, with a reported growth of 10.8% for Q4 2025, down from 24.1% in Q3 2025, although it remains at a relatively high level historically [3][12]. Industry Analysis - There is significant divergence in profit growth across industries, with 7 out of 11 sectors reporting negative growth. Only the information technology, financial, industrial, and utility sectors showed positive growth, with information technology contributing 12.6% to the overall profit growth of sample companies at a rate of 44.5% [4][15]. Information Technology - In the information technology sector, 25 companies reported earnings, with 21 showing positive profit growth. Notably, 18 companies had growth rates exceeding 10%, with standout performers including SanDisk at 672%, Western Digital at 210%, Micron Technology at 180.2%, Broadcom at 97%, and Oracle at 94.7% [5][18]. Utilities - The utility sector performed well, with two companies reporting a combined profit growth of 251.1%. This performance is likely linked to rising electricity prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for electricity services showing a year-on-year increase of 6.7% in December 2025 [6][22]. Industrial - The industrial sector saw a profit growth rate of 45.9%, driven largely by military production. Key companies included Boeing (returning to profitability), Lockheed Martin with a growth of 155%, Northrop Grumman at 66.7%, and General Electric Aerospace at 34.9%. The production index for aerospace and other transportation equipment has risen significantly, averaging a year-on-year growth of 20.9% over the last four months [7][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the GDP targets set by various provinces for 2026, highlighting a trend of downward adjustments in targets by several major provinces, indicating a cautious economic outlook for the upcoming year [2][3]. Summary by Sections GDP Targets - As of January 31, 2024, 22 provinces have set GDP targets, accounting for 67% of the national GDP. Notably, 12 provinces, including Guangdong and Zhejiang, have lowered their GDP targets by 0.5 percentage points, with a weighted average target of 5% for these provinces compared to 5.3% the previous year [3][4]. - The historical data shows that when two or more major economic provinces set a range target, the national target tends to follow suit, as seen in 2016 and 2019 [3][4]. Provincial Adjustments - Specific provinces have set their GDP targets as follows: - Guangdong: 4.5%-5.5% - Zhejiang: 5%-5.5% - Henan: 5% - Hubei: 5.5% - Other provinces have also adjusted their targets, with some showing increases while others have decreased their expectations [6][7]. Economic Performance Indicators - The article provides insights into the economic performance of specific regions, such as Tibet, which aims for a GDP growth of over 7% in 2026, and Heilongjiang, which targets a GDP growth of 4.5%-5% [8][15]. - The expected growth rates for fixed asset investment and retail sales are also outlined, with Tibet aiming for a 15% increase in fixed asset investment and a 7% increase in retail sales [8][11][13]. Investment and Consumption Goals - Investment goals for 2026 include significant infrastructure projects and initiatives to boost consumption, with Heilongjiang planning to implement over 2,000 promotional activities to stimulate consumer spending [15][19]. - The focus on clean energy and agricultural productivity is emphasized, with specific targets for investment in these sectors [8][15].

Group 1: Central Government Policies - The central government has focused on several key areas, including diplomacy, anti-corruption, industry regulation, and capital markets [2][3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to combat "involution" in the photovoltaic industry, advocating for capacity control and other measures to ensure healthy competition [2][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced improvements to the capacity pricing mechanism for coal, gas, and pumped storage power generation, including the establishment of a new pricing mechanism for independent energy storage [2][3] Group 2: Key Meetings and Events - The Politburo of the Communist Party held a meeting to discuss the strategic direction for future industrial development, emphasizing the importance of innovation and collaboration among industries [8] - The State Council held a meeting on anti-corruption, highlighting the ongoing challenges and the need for a strong stance against corruption to achieve the goals set for the 14th Five-Year Plan [8] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission convened a meeting to discuss the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the capital market, focusing on risk prevention and promoting high-quality development [13][14] Group 3: State-Owned Enterprises Reform - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission outlined plans for the restructuring and strategic integration of central enterprises, aiming to enhance their role in national security and public service [11] - The focus will be on promoting high-quality mergers and acquisitions to secure core resources and technological advantages [11] - The government aims to reduce industry involution by supporting strong innovative enterprises in horizontal and vertical integration [11] Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges related to excessive competition, prompting the government to call for regulatory measures to restore rational development [12] - The Ministry of Commerce indicated a willingness to engage in new rounds of economic negotiations with the U.S. ahead of a potential leaders' meeting [13] - The National Development and Reform Commission's new pricing mechanism aims to enhance the participation of energy storage in the electricity market, promoting fair competition [15]