文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 付春生(18482259975) 报告摘要 1月FOMC会议：暂停降息，符合预期 1、暂停降息，利率维持在3.5%-3.75%，符合市场预期。12位FOMC票委中，2票反对，理事米兰和沃勒希 望降息25BP。 2、与暂停降息相一致，本次会议声明对经济和就业的表述边际转向乐观 。对经济增长的表述从"温和扩 张"转为"稳健扩张"。虽然"就业增长依然较低"，但是失业率从"上升"转为"呈现企稳迹象"。对通胀的表 述，删除了"2025年以来有所上升"，但"依然较高"。 3、发布会上，鲍威尔认为通胀上行风险和就业下行风险有所减弱 ，后续决策并未预设，加息不是基本假 设。媒体关注重点在"美联储人事"、"金融市场波动"（美元汇率波动、贵金属价格上涨）上，鲍威尔均直接 回避，不予置评。 今年联储降息的焦点在哪？ 关于今年降息节奏和幅度，经济因素来看，重点在就业修复趋势，而非通胀掣肘。非经济因素来看，重点 在选举压力下的潜在财政刺激，而非联储人事变动。 从经济因素来看，重点在于就业修复趋势，而非通胀的掣肘。 关于就业，10万或是分水岭 。202 ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 点击查看往期： 2026年地方两会跟踪系列 | 分类 | | 省份 | 今年目标 | 去年目标 | 去年实际 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 广东 | 4.5-5,在实际工作中全力争 取更好结果 | 5左右 | 3.9% | | 调整为 | 下调约0.5 | | 5-5.5,在实际工作中努力争 | | 5.5% | | 区间目 | 个点 | 浙江 | 取更好结果 | 5.5左右 | | | 标 | | 新疆 | 5-5.5 | 6左右 | 5.5% | | | 上调约0.5 个点 | 江西 | 5-5.5 | 5左右 | 5.2% | | | | 河南 | 5左右,在实际工作中努力 争取更好结果 | 5.5左右 | 5.6% | | | | 天津 | 4.5,在实际工作中努力争取 更好结果 | 5左右 | 4.8% | | 下调0.5个 | | 湖北 | 5.5左右 | 6左右 | 5.5% | | ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 付春生(18482259975) 报告摘要 伊朗骚乱似有平息，但"灰犀牛"的地缘风险仍存。本篇报告主要概述伊朗的基本经济国情，侧重自然资 源、优势产业和出口结构。 一、伊朗近期发生了什么？ 经济困境引发各地抗议，逐步升级为伊朗全国大规模骚乱，伤亡人数是过往动荡之最。 去年11月开始，伊 朗多地因物价上涨、货币贬值等问题发生抗议，随后扩散至全境并出现暴力骚乱和大规模伤亡，期间全面 断网8天。1月下旬局势趋于缓和。1月21日伊朗官方称近期骚乱事件导致3117人死亡。 地缘冲突风险仍存 。1月22日特朗普表示美国"大型舰队"正驶向伊朗周边。 从经济地理位置看，伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡具有强大控制力。 霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源贸易的咽喉要道，流 经该海峡的石油和其他液体燃料贸易量约占全球消费量约20%，占全球海运贸易量约27%，流经该海峡的 LNG贸易量约占全球LNG贸易量的20%，约占全球天然气贸易量的9%。 二、伊朗的主要自然资源 1、石油：全球探明原油储量第三，目前日产量约320万桶/日，出口量约180万桶/日。 伊朗探明原油储量约 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the GDP targets and economic strategies of various provinces in China for 2026, highlighting adjustments in goals and key focus areas for growth and investment. Summary by Sections GDP Targets - Guangdong's GDP target is set at 4.5-5%, down from last year's target of around 5%, with an actual growth of 3.9% [2] - Zhejiang has adjusted its target to 5-5.5%, maintaining last year's target of around 5.5% with an actual growth of 5.5% [2] - Hubei aims for a GDP growth of around 5.5%, down from last year's target of around 6% with an actual growth of 5.5% [12] - Fujian's GDP target is set at around 5%, with last year's target being 5-5.5% and an actual growth of 5% [18] Investment Plans - Guangdong plans to implement 2,000 provincial key projects with an investment of over 980 billion yuan, down from last year's target of 1 trillion yuan [5] - Hubei aims to advance over 12,200 projects with significant investments, including strategic projects like the Three Gorges waterway [12] - Fujian plans to implement 1,550 provincial key projects with an annual investment of 715 billion yuan [18] Consumption Goals - Hubei's social retail target for 2026 is not publicly set, while the 2025 target was around 7%, with an actual growth of 2.7% [12] - Fujian's social retail target for 2026 is not disclosed, with the 2025 target being around 5.5% and an actual growth of 4.4% [18] Key Industries and Focus Areas - The article highlights the emphasis on emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and renewable energy across various provinces [2][3] - Hubei plans to implement the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative and develop three major computing power circles [12] - Fujian aims to enhance its marine economy and implement an artificial intelligence enterprise cultivation plan [18] Employment and Social Goals - Hubei targets to create over 700,000 new urban jobs in 2026, aligning income growth with economic growth [12] - Fujian aims to control the urban unemployment rate at around 5% and create 500,000 new jobs [18]

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 12 月工业企业利润数据：受其他损益收入比下降影响，利润增速回升 12 月，据统计局数据，规模以上工业企业当月利润由 11 月份下降 13.1% 转为增长 5.3% ，回升 18.4 个 百分点。库存方面，截止至 2025 年 12 月，库存同比 3.9% ，前值为 4.6% 。分所有制看， 12 月，国有 控股工业企业利润增速为 -51.5% ，私营企业增速为 0.56% ，外商及港澳台为 41.4% 。 量、价、利润率拆分来看，量价双升 。 PPI 同比， 12 月同比为 -1.9% ， 11 月为 -2.2% 。工增 12 月增 速为 5.2% ， 11 月为 4.8% ；收入端 12 月增速为 -3.21% ， 11 月为 -0.26% 。利润率方面， 12 月为 5.57% ，去年同期（可比口径）为 5.13% 。 利润率拆分来看， 12 月毛利率为 16.40% ，去年同期为 16.44% ；费用率 10.7% ，去年同期为 10.23% ；其他损益收入比为 0.14% ...

Core Viewpoint - The importance of the "Affordability" issue is increasingly prominent as the U.S. enters the midterm election year, with Trump proposing several policies aimed at addressing this concern [2]. Group 1: Proposed Policies - The proposed policies can be categorized into four areas: housing, finance, cost of living, and defense [21]. - In the housing sector, Trump has proposed two measures: directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to lower mortgage rates, and restricting large institutional investors from buying single-family homes to stabilize home prices [21][26]. - In the finance sector, a proposal to set a credit card interest rate cap at 10% has been introduced [22]. - For the cost of living, three measures include issuing tariff dividends, requiring large tech companies to cover their electricity infrastructure costs, and a comprehensive healthcare plan aimed at reducing medical expenses [23][24]. - In defense, a proposal has been made to prohibit defense contractors from stock buybacks and dividends while limiting executive compensation [25]. Group 2: Feasibility of Policies - The feasibility of these policies is assessed based on whether they require congressional legislation, the attitudes of both parties, and predictions from the betting market [27]. - Two of the proposed policies do not require congressional approval and have already begun implementation: directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase MBS, and prohibiting defense contractors from stock buybacks and dividends [29][32]. - The remaining five policies may require congressional legislation, with varying degrees of clarity regarding their implementation paths [29][33][34]. Group 3: Potential Impacts - The potential impacts of the proposed policies are significant, particularly in four areas: 1. Directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase MBS could help narrow mortgage loan spreads, although their holdings represent only about 1.1% of the total MBS market [46][50]. 2. Restricting institutional purchases of homes could affect only about 3% of the market, as large investors hold a small share of single-family rentals [53][59]. 3. The proposed credit card interest rate cap could reduce rates by 11%, but the net interest margin for credit card businesses is only around 9% to 10%, potentially making the business unprofitable [63][65]. 4. The prohibition on dividends and buybacks for defense contractors could impact their financial strategies, as these actions currently represent a significant portion of their market value [17]. Group 4: Future Monitoring Points - Key future monitoring points include the Defense Secretary's review of defense contractors on February 6, the State of the Union address on February 24, the presidential budget proposal in February-March, and potential affordability measures that may be announced during the primary election period from May to August [4].

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 自1月9日国常会部署实施财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策后，近期多项财政金融协同促内需一揽子政 策落地。 1、设备更新贴息政策： 1月19日，财政部等关于优化实施设备更新贷款财政贴息政策的通知。政策实 施期限延迟至2026年底，新增建筑和市政、用能设备、航空器材、电子信息、安全生产、设施农业、 渔船、冷链设施、粮油加工、废弃物循环利用、小水电、消费商业设施、人工智能、养老等领域。1月 22日，国家发改委公告2026年第一批936亿元超长期特别国债支持设备更新资金已经下达，支持工 业、能源电力、教育、医疗、粮油加工、海关查验、住宅老旧电梯、节能降碳环保、回收循环利用等 领域约4500个项目，带动总投资超过4600亿元。 2、消费贷贴息政策 ：1月20日，财政部等发布《关于优化实施个人消费贷款财政贴息政策有关事项的 通知》，将政策延续到2026年底，将信用卡账单分期业务纳入支持范围，扩大经办机构范围等。 3、中小企业及民间投资 ：财政部等印发《关于实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策的通知》《关于实施 ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 往期重点内容 1月13日《地方两会的"信息点"》 1月15日《浙江率先开局》 1月26日《北京GDP目标维持在5%左右》 | સ્ત્રેફ્ર | | ફ્તિસ્ટે | 今年目标 | 去年目标 | 去年实际 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 调整为区间目标， 下调约0.5个点 | | 广东 | 4.5%-5%,在实际工作 中全力争取更好结果 | 5%左右 | 3.9% | | | | 浙江 | 5%-5.5%，在实际工作 中努力争取更好结果 | 5.5%左右 | 5.5% | | 下调0.5 | | 河南 | 5%左右，在实际工作 中努力争取更好结果 | 5.5%左右 | 5.6% | | 仍为点 | 个点 | 天津 | 4.5%，在实际工作中努 力争取更好结果 | 5%左右 | 4.8% | | 位目标 | 基本不变 | 河北 | 2%以下 | 5%以上 | 5.6% | | | | 北京 | 5%左右 ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 往期重点内容 1月13日《地方两会的"信息点"》 1月15日《浙江率先开局》 · 1月25日，76泉台十人代云，主此七月浙江、北京网吧台计。 · 下周（1月26日-1月31日）将有20省市召开人代会，是重要观察窗口 期。其中16省市集中在1月26日-27日（周一和周二），河南、广东、 天津、河北4省在周一，山东、湖北、福建等12省在周二，这16省市 2024年GDP合计占比50%。 · 江苏、四川两个经济大省召开时间略晚，安排在2月3日。 > 北京 "十五五"时期GDP目标: 年均增速4.5%-5%、努力争取更好结果。 "十四五"时期未设置GDP年均目标。 > 北京今年GDP目标制定：今年为5%左右，去年为5%左右、努力争取更 好结果。从历史经验看，2017年至2025年，北京GDP目标持平或低于当 年全国目标，其中2024-2025年与全国目标数值一致。 > 重大项目情况： 六个经济大省中，目前已有江苏、浙江、四川三省公布 今年重大项目安排，三省合计同比增速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic data and trends in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, highlighting the mixed signals in economic activity, employment, and financial conditions [1]. Group 1: Important Data Review - The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI has rebounded, with the final Q3 GDP growth rate at 4.4% [11][13]. - Japan's December export growth was below expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% compared to an expected 6.1% [11][14]. - The Eurozone's January ZEW Economic Sentiment Index has improved, and the manufacturing PMI has also increased, with France's manufacturing PMI reaching a nearly four-year high of 51 [11][14]. Group 2: US Economic Activity - The US WEI index fell to 2.34% for the week ending January 17, down from 2.40% the previous week [4][16]. - The German WAI index rose to 0.06% for the week ending January 18, up from -0.03% [5][16]. Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate has marginally decreased to 5.5% for the week ending January 16, down from 5.7% [6][18]. - The US mortgage loan rate increased to 6.09% as of January 22, up from 6.06% the previous week, while the MBA market composite index rose to 397.2, a 14.1% increase from the previous week [6][23]. Group 4: Prices - Commodity prices have rebounded, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 312.24, a 3.4% increase from the previous week [7]. - The US gasoline retail price rose to $2.70 per gallon on January 19, an increase of 1.3% from the previous week [40]. Group 5: Employment - The ADP weekly job additions have decreased, with a four-week cumulative total of 46,000 jobs as of December 6, down from 70,000 the previous week [8][27]. - Initial jobless claims rose to 200,000 for the week ending January 17, up from 199,000 the previous week [29]. - The INDEED job vacancy index fell to a weekly average of 105.3 for the week ending January 9, down from the previous week's average [34]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US at 0.812, down from 0.848 the previous week [9][45]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has improved for the yen against the dollar, while it has worsened for the euro against the dollar [9][48]. - The 10-year government bond yield spread between the US and Eurozone has narrowed, with the spread at 132.3 basis points as of January 22, down from 134.6 basis points [10][51].