点击小程序查看报告原文 自2022年底ChatGPT问世引领AI浪潮，美股在全球市场中便一直一枝独秀且屡创新高，这背后离不开三大"宏观支柱"（即AI科技、财政扩张及全球资金再 平衡）互相加强的正反馈机制（《 本轮美股牛市的三大支柱 》）。即便今年一季度以来，美国先后遭遇科技（1月底DeepSeek）、财政（2月DOGE裁员 减支而欧洲加大财政力度）及全球资金再配置（对等关税后冲击美元资产作为安全资产的信心）的挑战，导致一度"股债汇三杀"和资金流出（《 上次"股 债汇三杀"发生了什么？ 》），美股仍快速修复失地并不断刷新历史新高。 图表：美国财政、AI和资金再平衡三大宏观支柱年初以来受到冲击，低点在4月底 资料来源：EPFR，FactSet，Haver，中金公司研究部 近期美股和美元的表现也印证了我们的观点，即并不完全认可过度拥挤且基于长期宏大叙事的"去美元"，反而提示美元可能小幅走强，美股或再度跑赢 （《 全球市场2025下半年展望：共识化的"去美元" 》）。伴随美股反弹和屡创新高，美股的风险溢价（Equity risk premium，ERP，衡量投资股票相对无 风险资产所要求的风险补偿）也再创新低甚至跌至 ...

中金研究 1H25现制茶饮/餐饮公司密集上市提高板块效应，在消费环境尚待拐点情况下，具备自身增长动能的公司股价表现领先，也因此获得相对较高估值水 平，而其余部分与宏观周期相关度高的头部公司估值仍低于历史中枢。展望2H25，我们看好在服务消费享有自身成长和潜在政策促进的背景下，强内 功综合性龙头和高成长性细分龙头的增长机遇。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 服务连锁正当其时：老框架和新问题。 在服务消费占比提升、支撑连锁业态发展的基础设施日渐完备的背景下，越来越多成规模连锁品牌涌现，蜜雪、 瑞幸跻身百亿美元市值亦是例证。我们认为具备产品、运营、品牌综合实力及能迅速迭代组织力的企业更有望胜出，并在面对潮流生命周期的困局时更有 望穿越周期。企业持续成长的驱动力主要包括产品店型模式创新（如瑞幸的饮料化产品和全在线运营模式、百胜的肯悦咖啡和必胜客WOW）、向下向上 扩容（如华住向下拓展下沉市场和亚朵向上升级产品）、出海与全球化（如蜜雪海外门店数占比已超10%）、新业态（如亚朵零售业务收入占比已达 30%）等。老框架中也演化出几个投资人针对现制饮品关注的新问题：我们在报告中具体对比了头部现制咖啡和茶饮品牌 ...

尽责管理与行业ESG分析框架的整合： 基于投资者寻求自身与企业利益的一致性，我们提出了以"财务重要性"为纽带对尽责管理与行业ESG框架进行整合 的方法论，并根据申万行业标准的一级行业分类提出了30个行业对应参与治理活动中可重点关注的环境与社会议题。 Abstract 摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 2025年5月7日证监会印发关于《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》的通知，其中第二十条要求"强化对基金长期投资行为的引导"，包括"出台公募基金 参与上市公司治理规则，助力提升上市公司质量"[1]。同月9日，中国证券投资基金业协会发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人参与上市公司治理管理规 则》（以下简称《参与治理规则》）的公告[2]。 我国公募基金参与上市公司治理规则出台，完善企业治理体系 影响：（1）从公募基金管理人以及上市公司的角度，《参与治理规则》的实施或将推动流通股本结构较为集中的上市公司股东大会投票表决相关信息的 透明化。对于非强制披露投票表决情况的公募持仓，我们认为在《参与治理规则》的催化下，对应尽责管理活动亦或将增强。（2）参与治理实践对推动 长期资金发展、构建中国特色现代企业制度、双碳战略等多个国内政策热点 ...

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 中金研究 CICC Research 联合解读政治局会议 >>点击图片查看全文<< 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定召开二十届四中全会，并分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。关税缓和背景下，会议认为"主要 经济指标表现良好"，强调"保持政策连续性稳定性"。财政政策方面，三季度或聚焦发挥已有政策效力，不排除四季度财政加码的可能性。货币政 策方面，降低融资成本未必需要调降政策利率，改革性措施与结构性货币政策工具或为重点。消费政策方面，培育服务消费，保障改善民生。"反 内卷"政策方面，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市场竞争秩序持续优化。房地产政策方面，城市更新是当前和后续城市工作的重点。 2025.7.30 | 中金研究部 2025.7.28 | 刘刚 张巍瀚 04 全球研究 Industry >>点击图片查看全文<< 02 宏观 Macroeconomy 雅下投资线索 >>点击图片查看全文<< 7月19日，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程正式开工，自项目落地以来，快速成为市场交易主线，建筑、建材、工程机械、水利等板块均有所表现尤其是 直接关 ...

Group 1 - The article serves as a platform for sharing partial views from CICC's published research reports, emphasizing the importance of understanding the complete reports for accurate interpretation [2][3] - It highlights that the information and opinions provided do not constitute specific investment advice or recommendations for trading securities or financial instruments [2][3] - The content is directed towards CICC's clients in mainland China, and it is advised that subscribers assess the appropriateness of receiving the content before subscribing [3]

Core Viewpoint - The US economy shows resilience with a projected GDP growth rate of 3.0% for Q2 2025, but underlying weaknesses in domestic demand are evident, with private sector final sales growth slowing to 1.2%, the lowest in two years [1][3][6] Economic Growth Analysis - The actual GDP for Q2 2025 rebounded to an annualized rate of 3.0%, influenced significantly by fluctuations in imports and inventory [2][6] - The contribution of private consumption to GDP remains strong, but fixed asset investments, particularly in real estate and construction, have seen consecutive quarters of negative growth [1][3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth dropped sharply from 7.6% in Q1 to 0.4% in Q2, contributing only 0.08 percentage points to GDP [3] - High interest rates have notably suppressed construction and residential investments, while equipment investment growth has also slowed [3][6] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending rebounded in Q2 but remains weaker compared to 2024, with contributions to GDP fluctuating [3][6] - Durable goods consumption showed recovery, while non-durable goods consumption significantly declined [3] Government Spending - Government spending increased by 0.4% in Q2, contributing minimally to GDP growth, primarily driven by a rise in defense spending [4][6] Future Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to face constraints in the second half of the year due to tight monetary policy and potential increases in tariffs, which could further suppress growth and raise inflation [4][6] - The "Great Beautiful Act" introduced by Trump may provide some support to economic growth, potentially increasing GDP by 0.5% by 2026 [5][6] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation is anticipated to rise structurally in the second half of 2025, delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][6] - The potential for increased tariffs poses additional risks to both consumer purchasing power and corporate profits, which may further inhibit investment and spending [4][6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of OpenAI's Sora in 2024, which is expected to lead a new era in video generation, significantly improving the quality and efficiency of video production, particularly in the fields of film, e-commerce, and advertising [1][11] - It highlights the competitive landscape in the AI video generation market, with Chinese companies like Kuaishou leading in annual recurring revenue (ARR) and market share by 2025 [3][28] Technology Path and Evolution - The evolution of video generation technology has gone through three main stages: image stitching, mixed architectures (self-regression and diffusion), and the convergence towards the DiT (Diffusion Transformer) path following the release of Sora [4][6][7] - Sora's introduction in February 2024 marks a significant improvement in content generation quality, with major companies adopting DiT as their core architecture [2][11] Market Potential - The global AI video generation market is projected to reach approximately $6 billion in 2024, with the combined P-end (Prosumer) and B-end (Business) market potentially reaching $10 billion in the medium term [3][22] - The article emphasizes the high growth potential of the market, particularly in the P-end and B-end segments, driven by the demand for cost-effective content creation tools [21][23] Competitive Landscape - By 2025, Kuaishou is expected to capture around 20% of the global market share in video generation, leading the industry, while other Chinese companies like Hailuo, PixVerse, and Shengshu are also performing well [3][28] - The competition is characterized by a mix of strong players, with a focus on different aspects of video generation technology, indicating a diverse and competitive market landscape [27][28] Future Directions - The future of video generation technology is anticipated to focus on end-to-end multimodal models, which will enhance the capabilities of video generation systems by integrating various data types [15][16] - The article suggests that the integration of understanding and generation in multimodal architectures will be a key area of development, potentially leading to improved content consistency and model intelligence [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, indicating a cautious approach towards potential rate cuts due to ongoing inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Signals - There is internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding policy direction, with two board members opposing the decision to keep rates unchanged, marking the first time since 1993 that two members have voted against a collective decision [2] - Powell and the majority of officials prefer to maintain a tight monetary policy, citing that the inflation effects from tariffs will gradually manifest over the coming months, impacting U.S. businesses and consumers [2][3] - Powell acknowledged that current monetary policy is somewhat restrictive, contributing to downward pressure on the labor market, despite a rebound in GDP growth [3] Group 2: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is committed to maintaining its independence, despite pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, emphasizing that monetary policy aims to achieve full employment and stable inflation, not to assist the government in reducing debt costs [3][6] - The structure of the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, which involves a committee of 12 voting members, ensures that even if Trump were to dismiss Powell, the overall direction of monetary policy would remain unchanged [6] Group 3: Future Outlook on Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is not prepared to cut rates in the near term, with future decisions dependent on inflation trends, which are expected to rise in the latter half of the year primarily due to tariffs [4][5] - The current fiscal policy environment is expected to remain relatively loose, which may lead to sustained economic growth and inflation, suggesting that monetary policy could remain tight for an extended period [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how AI is reshaping the advertising industry through precision and automation, which is expected to enhance media eCPM in the short to medium term [4][6]. Group 1: Content Production - AI tools for content generation are reducing creative costs and enhancing market competitiveness. For instance, Kuaishou's AIGC marketing material consumption has exceeded 30 million yuan daily, estimated to account for a low double-digit percentage of overall material consumption [4][6]. - The use of AI tools has led to significant cost reductions, with Kuaishou reporting a 70% decrease in material costs for representative clients, while Tencent's Miaosi can reduce production costs by over 50% [4][6]. Group 2: Advertising Optimization - AI-driven advertising systems are optimizing the advertising process by enhancing user insights and achieving precise targeting, which directly impacts eCPM. This involves understanding user behavior data and social media interactions to create detailed user profiles [4][13]. - Platforms like Douyin are integrating multi-modal interaction data to achieve real-time matching of ad content with user scenarios through dynamic creative optimization [4][14]. Group 3: Interactive Innovation - The introduction of AI-powered customer service and digital human live streaming is filling marketing gaps and enhancing professional agent capabilities. For example, Kuaishou's AI customer service has improved local service merchants' lead retention rates by over 20% [5][18]. - Digital humans can operate continuously and support multiple live streaming scripts, significantly reducing initial investment costs and enabling 24-hour coverage [5][19]. Group 4: Industry Landscape Changes - Major platforms are accelerating ecosystem restructuring and transforming service provider roles. Leading platforms are using AI to redefine traditional industry chain divisions, resulting in increased advertising budgets from advertisers [5][28]. - Traditional 4A companies are evolving into "AI strategy service providers," integrating AI tools into their service offerings to enhance value and adapt to industry changes [5][29]. Group 5: eCPM Optimization - The core of eCPM optimization lies in understanding user groups and ad content. Platforms are analyzing these elements to improve advertising monetization efficiency [4][22]. - Key factors influencing eCPM include enhancing precision in understanding user intent, improving efficiency in content production, and increasing value through diverse advertising models [4][27].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau on July 30 emphasized the need for continuous and stable macroeconomic policies, highlighting the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while addressing current economic challenges [3][4][14]. Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting acknowledged that major economic indicators are performing well, with a focus on maintaining policy continuity and stability. It noted the potential for increased fiscal measures in the fourth quarter if economic performance weakens unexpectedly [4][5]. - The meeting indicated that the third quarter may focus on the effectiveness of existing fiscal policies, with a possibility of additional fiscal measures if economic conditions deteriorate [5][21]. - The risk mitigation of existing debt continues, with a strong emphasis on prohibiting new hidden debts and effectively managing local government debt risks [6][21]. Monetary Policy - The meeting reiterated that monetary policy should maintain ample liquidity and promote a reduction in social financing costs, suggesting that lowering financing costs may not necessarily require a reduction in policy interest rates [7][20]. - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to play a significant role in supporting weak economic segments and addressing potential risks [7][20]. Consumer Policy - The meeting proposed to cultivate new growth points in service consumption while ensuring the improvement of people's livelihoods, indicating a focus on sectors such as cultural tourism and basic social services [8][33]. - Specific measures include the implementation of consumption vouchers and support for sectors like dining and tourism to stimulate demand [33]. Technology and Innovation - The meeting emphasized the importance of supporting technological innovation and fostering new pillar industries with international competitiveness, indicating a long-term focus on innovation as a key driver of economic growth [9][14]. Market Competition and Regulation - The meeting highlighted the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and optimize market competition order, addressing issues of disorderly competition and local government intervention [10][15]. - The focus on "anti-involution" policies aims to regulate market behavior and promote fair competition, particularly in key industries [10][15]. Real Estate Policy - The meeting's discussion on real estate was limited, primarily focusing on high-quality urban renewal, reflecting a cautious approach to the real estate market [12][24]. - The emphasis on prohibiting new hidden debts suggests a shift towards more sustainable financing models for urban development [24][27]. Capital Market - The meeting underscored the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, indicating a commitment to stabilizing and improving market conditions [15][20]. - The potential for increased foreign investment and improved domestic investor sentiment is anticipated as a result of these measures [15][20].