行业配置观点：市场震荡上行趋势有望延续，风格趋于平衡 10月市场震荡上涨，风格阶段性转换。 10月A股市场震荡上涨，上证指数阶段性突破关键整数关口。中美博弈一度升温，使得风格阶段性偏向红利、以及 涨价确定性较强的有色金属。近期中美经贸磋商达成多项核心共识，有助于支撑投资者风险偏好。中观维度看，中国科技与制造沿着产业链升级、出海拓 宽市场是长期趋势，三季报业绩显示AI算力产业链、机械、汽车、电网设备出口、上游金属、创新药等领域仍然是结构性亮点，相关股票价格已有较好表 现。相比之下传统行业股价表现平淡，国内需求偏弱需要稳增长政策发力支持，年末政策信号有待观察，"反内卷"正引导供需平衡以市场化方式推进，有 助于改善相关行业业绩预期。10月美联储继续降息25BP，全球主要股票市场均有较好表现，也有利于贵金属、工业金属等商品价格上涨。当前沪深300指 数盈利收益率约7%，相比10年期国债的股权风险溢价超过5%，上市公司盈利仍在改善趋势中，去年"9.24"以来的A股震荡上行行情仍有望延续。 点击小程序查看报告原文 分别看各大类行业的景气表现：1）能源及基础材料：美联储如期降息，黄金、工业金属延续涨势，供暖季需求增长及减产 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 2025年美国经济出现显著分化。一方面，受关税和移民政策的影响，制造业、房地产等传统行业承压，经济活动趋缓。另一方面，在人工智能（AI）浪潮 带动下，科技行业资本开支热情高涨。在安全重要性上升的背景下，美国既要推动高科技产业发展，又要引导传统制造业回流。长期来看，关税能否推动 制造业回流尚待检验，但短期反而推升通胀，抑制增长。展望2026年，这些因素可能导致 供需格局出现新的调整。 具体而言，美国经济将面临两个挑战。其一， 来自供给侧的关税上调与人口增速放缓压力。 由于关税收入具有滞后性，其对经济、尤其是通胀的冲击未 如先前预期那样迅猛，但这也意味着相关影响将在2026年继续释放。与此同时，移民限制使劳动力人口增速放缓，若生产率未能同步提升，潜在增速或将 承受下行压力。 其二， 来自需求侧的AI投资周期波动。 尽管AI对经济增长的贡献日益显现，但当前阶段主要体现在庞大的资本开支上。随着投资规模快速扩大，资本的 边际效率难免递减，资本开支增速将趋于放缓。AI投资也可能遵循这一周期性规律，这意味着其对2026年GDP增长的拉动作用或将较2025年降低。 政策层面， ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the upcoming CICC Annual Investment Strategy Conference 2025, highlighting key speakers and topics that will be addressed during the event [1][3]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference will take place from November 12 to 14, 2025, at the Beijing Kerry Hotel [1]. - Notable speakers include Wang Shuguang, Vice Chairman and President of CICC, and Liu Shijun, Chief Advisor of the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The conference will feature discussions on macroeconomic outlooks for China and the United States, led by Zhang Wenlang, Managing Director of CICC Research [5]. - Topics will also cover A-share market outlook, Hong Kong and overseas market perspectives, and asset outlooks [5]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The agenda includes sessions on various sectors such as real estate, fixed income, REITs, and quantitative investment strategies for 2026 [6][10]. - Specific sessions will focus on new supply dynamics in industries like automotive, photovoltaic, and energy [8]. Group 4: Technological Innovations - The conference will explore advancements in AI and its implications for infrastructure and intelligent robotics [9][11]. - Discussions will also cover the integration of AI in various applications and the emergence of new materials [12][40]. Group 5: Consumer Trends - The event will address new consumer trends, emphasizing quality of life and innovative consumption patterns [9][55]. - Topics will include the evolution of service chains, brand operations, and the rise of consumer robots [9]. Group 6: Financial Sector Developments - Insights into the wealth management industry post-fee reform and the development of a multi-layered REITs market will be presented [10]. - The conference will also discuss the opportunities and challenges presented by RWA in empowering the real economy [10].

实现内外部循环相互促进的两个关键点是创新发展和提振内需，以充分发挥中国的规模经济优势。DeepSeek的突破是市场重估中国创新能力的触发因素之 一，提升了投资者的风险偏好。规模定律意味AI大模型研发现在处于规模报酬递减阶段，AI应用能否带来更广层面的规模报酬递增是下一步发展的关 键。围绕创新发展，中国需要更加重视需求。提振消费需求不仅促进宏观平衡，也改善科技创新和产业创新的市场环境。财政扩张可以发挥关键作用，尤 其是以生育、养育、教育等民生问题为导向的财政支出，包括改善低收入群体的社会保障。历史经验显示科技进步既增加了改善社会保障的必要性也为此 提供了资源。后者在宏观上体现为总供给相对总需求的过剩，财政扩张改善低收入群体的社会保障就是把这些资源利用起来。 关键词 | 地缘经济 规模经济 双循环 财政扩张 Text 2025年中美两大经济体的股市都显著上涨，其伴随的宏观环境既有类似的地方也有重要差异。中国的股市上涨主要源自风险溢价的下降，反映市场预期的 改善，而企业盈利增长的贡献较小（图表1）。从实体经济来看，GDP平减指数连续9个季度负增长（图表2），反映总需求疲弱。股市与实体经济的分化 带来风险偏好上升驱动 ...

联合研究 73只REITs公布三季报，我们在本报告分析三季报中重要信息。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 基本面：项目经营波动分化，关注短期经营韧性。 1）产业园： 板块经营波动与区域分化并存，核心区域头部项目仍保持较高出租率，展现结构韧性；受 市场化竞争加剧影响，二线城市产业园经营持续承压。 2）物流仓储： 板块持续分化，关联租户及头部运营商项目展现出经营韧性。 3）保租房： 延续经 营韧性，体现出较好的防御属性，部分市场化项目租金环比小幅走弱，但出租率有所提升。 4）消费： 已上市消费REITs整体表现稳中有进，部分项目 （如首创奥莱REIT）因季节性因素经营有所波动。 5）数据中心： 首批项目首次披露季报，整体利用率保持高位，短期运营稳定性较好。 6）高速： 受 季节性影响，三季度高速项目车流量环比均有所上升。路网变化带来的影响持续，项目表现有所分化。 7）市政环保及能源： 多数市政环保项目业绩迎来 增长，其中富国水务项目因调价落地带来一次性差额确认。能源项目表现持续分化，水电来水环比回升，但风电、光伏项目则普遍面临自然资源波动、电 网消纳压力等挑战。 三季度可供分配金额环比提升，季度完成度平 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 今年以来，港股持续活跃并领跑全球市场，同时也呈现高度结构化的轮动行情。这一表现得益于年初DeepSeek引领的资产重估叙事，以及后续新消费、创 新药等结构性机会的持续涌现，同时也与流动性的活跃有直接关系。从资金角度看， 既有全球"去美元化"叙事下一部分分散化投资需求下的资金流入， 也有国内缺乏投资机会下寻求更高回报下南向资金的持续流入， 例如上半年的保险资金和下半年的存款活化和理财入市叙事。具体体现在， 1) 市场整体活跃度明显抬升： 年初至今日均成交额达2579亿港元，较2024年1318亿港元接近翻倍； 2) 南向资金大幅加码，三季度后个人或取代保险： 日均流入规模达64.2亿港元，是2024年全年日均34.7亿港元的近两倍，截至10月底累计流入1.26万亿港 元，创年度历史新高。三季度后，南向资金内部，公募基金尤其是ETF占比明显提升，说明"存款搬家"叙事下的个人投资者可能取代了上半年的保险资金 成为主力； 图表：年初以来港股整体跑赢A股与美股，但轮动效应明显 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 图表：南向资金今年以来大幅涌入，已累计流入1.26万亿港元创年度历史新高 资料来源： ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aiming to provide efficient, professional, and accurate research services by integrating insights from over 30 specialized teams and covering more than 1800 individual stocks [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform features daily updates on research focuses and timely article selections, enhancing the accessibility of market insights [4]. - It provides over 3,000 complete research reports covering macroeconomics, industry research, and commodities [9]. Group 2: Data and Frameworks - The platform includes more than 160 industry research frameworks and over 40 premium databases, facilitating comprehensive industry data analysis [10]. - CICC Insight incorporates advanced AI search capabilities, allowing users to filter key points and engage in intelligent Q&A [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the ongoing "eyewear revolution" driven by AI glasses, highlighting their potential to enhance daily life through hands-free interaction and real-time information access [2][3]. - The article emphasizes the significant growth in AI glasses shipments, projecting a 533% year-on-year increase in 2024, with an expected total of 3.5 million units shipped by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 119% from 2024 to 2028 [6][8]. - Key players in the AI glasses market include global tech giants like Meta and domestic brands such as Xiaomi, which are innovating in hardware and software to improve user experience and functionality [6][8]. Group 2 - The article outlines the AI glasses industry chain, which consists of upstream components like SoC chips and storage, midstream optical modules, and downstream assembly processes, indicating that each segment is crucial for the overall development of AI glasses [8][10]. - It highlights the importance of hardware upgrades, including advancements in chips, interaction methods, and display technologies, with a focus on dual-chip solutions and the integration of Micro LED for better performance and efficiency [11][16]. - The software aspect is also crucial, with trends towards dual systems for improved battery life and the development of proprietary large models to enhance user engagement and functionality in AI glasses [17][19].

2025年10月30日，商务部新闻发言人就中美吉隆坡经贸磋商联合安排答记者问介绍了中美经贸团队通过吉隆坡磋商达成的成果共识 [1]。主要包括关税、出口管制、航运附加费等内容，我们认为，中美吉隆坡磋商的成果共识有助于稳定经贸关系，改善我国外循环， 也会降低市场风险溢价。中金公司总量（宏观、策略、外汇）以及行业（交运、大宗商品、科技、有色、互联网、纺服、家电）为您联 合解读。 2025.10.30 | 中金公司研究部 02 中金研究 CICC Research 宏观走势和投资机会——简评"十五五"规划建议 中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 中金研究 CICC Research 联合解读中美经贸磋商成果 >>点击图片查看全文<< >>点击图片查看全文<< 10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》及说明发布[2]，对"十五五"的地位、方针、目标、任 务等问题做了系统阐述。"十五五"具有承前启后的重要地位，达到2035年远景目标需要增长保持在合理区间。在经济新旧动能转换、地 缘冲突易发多发等背景下，未来五年供给侧创新要求更高，百尺竿头更进一步，更注重 ...

Core Insights - A-share companies' profits showed a year-on-year growth of 5.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, with non-financial profits increasing by 1.7% [2][5][25] - The third quarter saw a significant improvement in profit growth across various sectors, with non-financial net profits rising by 11.4% year-on-year, compared to 3.8% in the second quarter [2][5][7] Performance Growth - A-share companies' net profits for the first three quarters of 2025 were 5.4% for all A-shares, 9.5% for financials, and 1.7% for non-financials [5][25] - In Q3 2025, the net profit growth for non-financial sectors was 11.4%, with a notable improvement from Q2 [2][7] - The revenue for non-financial sectors increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery in profit margins [2][5] Industry Performance - The number of industries with profit improvements increased, with 48 industries (37% of total) reporting a year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 20% [15][19] - The TMT sector, non-ferrous metals, and certain midstream industries performed well, reflecting the positive impact of policy shifts [15][19] - The energy and raw materials sector saw a decline in profit share from nearly 40% in 2022 to 30.5% in Q3 2025 [13][19] Economic Segmentation - New economy sectors showed a profit growth of 12.1% year-on-year in Q3, while traditional sectors experienced a reduced decline of -2.1% [11][19] - Upstream, midstream, and downstream profit growth rates were 4.0%, 10.3%, and -3.1%, respectively, indicating a recovery in upstream profits [16][19] - The performance of the consumer sector was weak due to policy rollbacks and weak demand, with significant declines in various sub-sectors [17][19] Profit Quality - A-share non-financial ROE stabilized in Q3 2025, with a slight increase compared to Q2, indicating potential stabilization after a prolonged decline [25][26] - The cash flow situation showed improvements, with operating cash flow remaining at a high level, supporting dividend certainty for A-share companies [31][33] - Non-financial companies' free cash flow to equity ratio maintained at around 5.2%, providing a solid foundation for dividends [33]