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二手结构|京沪深杭刚改中改需求“塌陷”,刚需集中度上升
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-17 09:28
Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is expected to continue a trend of stabilization with a slight decline in the short term, as evidenced by a 10% month-on-month decrease in transactions in May 2025 compared to the new housing market which saw an increase [1][22]. Group 1: Market Trends - The transaction volume of second-hand homes has been steadily declining, with a notable 10% decrease in May 2025 across 30 key cities [1]. - The proportion of transactions in the price range of 3-6 million yuan has significantly adjusted downwards, indicating a trend of consumption downgrade among first-time and upgrading buyers [2][3]. - The low-price segment continues to see an upward trend in transaction concentration, with 34.4% of transactions in Shenzhen being for properties priced under 3 million yuan, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point increase month-on-month [3]. Group 2: Transaction Characteristics - In terms of area, the 90-120 square meter segment has seen an increase in transaction share, primarily due to its suitability for family needs, while smaller units (80 square meters and below) have experienced a decline in market share [5]. - The transaction concentration in mid-value areas is increasing, with notable growth in districts like Fengtai and Changping in Beijing, and Longgang and Longhua in Shenzhen [8][10]. Group 3: Price Adjustments - The proportion of second-hand homes with price reductions has increased in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, while Shanghai remains stable at a high level of 56% [12][16]. - The price reduction strategy has been particularly effective for budget-friendly properties, with over half of the transactions in affordable segments in Beijing and Shanghai reflecting price cuts [16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market is expected to face a seasonal decline, influenced by a slowdown in demand following the peak of school district purchases and a lack of new listings, especially in the luxury segment [21][22]. - The market is transitioning to a buyer's market, where buyers are increasingly considering location, amenities, and price, leading to longer transaction cycles for less desirable properties [22].
票选| 2025上半年全国十大品质作品
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-17 09:28
6月17日起,2025上半年全国十大作品入围项目大众网络票选环节开启。 当前,2025上半年度中国房企产品测评进入角逐阶段,即日起, 6月17日至23日中午12点 ,大众网络票选通道 正式开启。期间, 为期两天的入围项目专家评审环节于6月17-18日举行。 为你心中高端、轻奢、品质住宅产品的典范投票 选出你心目中的 " 好房子 " 在"好房子"战略的号召下,房企积极投身产品力建设,致力于解决居住痛点、提升住宅产品品质。自2018年 起,克而瑞连续八年开展中国房企"产品力100"测评研究工作。 本次十大作品高端/轻奢/品质三大类别票选使用同一通道; 同一微信ID仅限投票一次 ,每人每个类别最多选十个项目投票; 最终票数为所有参加者有效投票数的累计。 目前,2025年度产品力测评工作已经开展,除"全国十大作品"外新增"中国好房子"测评,上半年的"十大作 品"测评经组委会初评,现已产生入围项目,并进入专业评审与大众票选环节。 规则: 与此同时,为方便详实地了解项目情况,本次入围的项目也将再次通过线上进行集中展示。 入围项目将经过专家评审、大众票选、测评模型等环节,最终于6月底发布《全国十大高端/轻奢/品质作品》 《 ...
土地周报 | 供应下行成交回升,成都三圣乡刷新地价纪录 (6.9-6.15)
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-17 09:28
Core Viewpoint - The land transaction scale has rebounded week-on-week, but the average premium rate remains low, indicating a cautious market sentiment and limited high-quality land sales [1][2]. Supply - The supply of land this week was 3.79 million square meters, a 40% decrease compared to the previous week [2]. - Key cities offered 38 residential land plots with an average plot ratio of 2.1, while cities like Changsha, Suzhou, and Huzhou had average plot ratios below 2.0 [2]. - Notable land offerings include a residential plot in Shenzhen with a starting price of 1.158 billion yuan and a plot in Suzhou with a starting price of 1.58 billion yuan [2]. Transaction - The total transaction area was 3.25 million square meters, a 120% increase week-on-week, but the transaction amount was 14 billion yuan, a 43% decrease [2]. - The decline in high-priced land transactions in first-tier cities contributed to the increase in transaction area but a decrease in transaction value [2]. - The average premium rate fell to 0.8%, marking a new low for the year [2]. Notable Transactions - The highest transaction this week was a mixed-use land plot in Chengdu's Jinjiang District, sold for 1.617 billion yuan with a premium rate of 14% [3]. - In Xi'an, a mixed-use land plot was sold for 900 million yuan with a premium rate of 21.54%, setting a new low for the area [4]. - The competitive bidding for these plots indicates ongoing interest in high-quality land despite the overall market conditions [3][4]. Rankings - The top land transactions included plots in Beijing, Chengdu, and Xi'an, with varying premium rates and transaction prices, reflecting the competitive landscape in these cities [6][8].
行业数据|销售企稳去库存提速,房地产延续稳市场进程
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-16 09:31
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in new home prices and a decrease in unsold inventory, supported by proactive financial policies and urban renewal initiatives [2][6][19]. Economic Performance - In May 2025, the national economy demonstrated resilience with industrial production increasing by 5.8% year-on-year and retail sales growing by 6.4% [3]. - The total import and export volume reached 38,098 billion yuan, with exports growing by 6.3% [3]. - The unemployment rate in urban areas decreased to 5.0% in May, indicating a stable job market [3]. Real Estate Market Trends - New home sales in May reached 70.53 million square meters, with a 10% month-on-month increase, reflecting a recovery in demand [6]. - The average price of new homes rose above 10,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a shift towards higher quality housing [6][10]. - The inventory of unsold homes decreased by 715 million square meters, marking three consecutive months of decline [7]. Financial Policies and Support - A series of financial support policies were implemented, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [7][19]. - The M2 money supply grew by 7.9%, while M1 increased by 2.3%, indicating improved consumer confidence [4][5]. Construction and Development - The area under construction for residential properties decreased by 9.6% year-on-year, with new construction down by 22.8% [14]. - The new construction area in May was 53.48 million square meters, a 19% year-on-year decline, but the rate of decline is narrowing [14][15]. - The real estate development investment in the first five months was 36,234 billion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year [19]. Price Trends - The price index for new homes in 70 major cities showed a continued stabilization, with the year-on-year decline narrowing [9][10]. - In May, first-tier cities saw a 1.7% year-on-year decrease in new home prices, with some cities like Shanghai experiencing price increases [9]. Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue stabilizing in the second half of 2025, driven by financial support policies and urban renewal efforts [22][23]. - The focus will be on managing inventory and enhancing the quality of new housing supply to meet evolving consumer demands [22][23].
行业透视|二手房价格筑底波动,供求预期稳步趋同
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-15 04:22
价格指标显现筑底期特征,平均议价空间再创新低 ◎ 文 / 马千里 为探析二手房成交价格的动向,研究中心以北京、上海等11个典型城市的二手房小区为样本,为避免单套异常成交影响较大,每个月样本小区的选取标准,均为近2 个月交易量不小于5套。 从统计结果来看,5月有44.9%的小区成交价格环比上升,较上月回落了7个百分点,高频交易小区数量仍处于高位,连续两个月在5000个以上。在上月房价上涨小 区占比过半之后,本月再度进入价格调整期, 2025年以来,涨价小区占比已经在50%上下"一涨一跌"连续波动了5个月,筑底期信号愈发明确。 结合成交数据来 看,5月份核心城市二手房交易量同比增长2%。二手房价格走向虽出现反复,但交易量已实现同比止跌,这也进一步说明,当前的二手房价正在越来越接近阶段性 底部。得益于央行一揽子金融政策的推动,以及各地积极出台促消费政策提振住房需求,5月份重点城市二手房价格暂缓上行,但交易量仍持续高位,印证当前市 场信心仍在持续恢复。 与买方出价意愿波动不同,卖方价格仍在持续下调。 2025年5月,有34.1%的小区挂牌价上涨,较上月再度回落了1.1个百分点。不论买方出价意愿如何波动,2025 年以 ...
Day8 | 2025上半年中国房企产品测评入围项目展示
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-15 04:22
Core Viewpoint - The "2025 Mid-Year China Real Estate Product Evaluation" has officially entered the project display phase, with the initial shortlisted projects announced on June 3rd, following a vigorous selection process involving industry experts and enterprises [1]. Group 1: Evaluation Process - The evaluation will utilize a combination of expert reviews and online voting to determine the final awards, including "Top Ten High-End/Light Luxury/Quality Works" and "National Good House Comprehensive Award" [1]. - The evaluation work is currently progressing in an orderly manner, with the final results expected to be announced by the end of June [7]. Group 2: Participating Projects - High-end shortlisted project: Xi'an Huafa Jinchengfu, developed by Xi'an Qujiang Huafa Real Estate Co., Ltd., featuring modern high-rise residential architecture [1]. - Light luxury shortlisted project: Sanya Guanlan, developed by China Resources Land Holdings Co., Ltd. and others, characterized by modern resort-style high-rise residential architecture [3]. - Other notable projects include Chongqing Longfor Yuhujing and Shanghai China Railway Expo Cloud Realm, both showcasing modern architectural styles [4][6]. Group 3: Industry Focus - Since 2018, the company has focused on the evolution of product strength in the industry, transitioning from "product strength" to "product series" and further to "customer demand" research and "delivery strength" evaluation [9]. - The ongoing efforts aim to convey advanced product concepts and excellent works from leading enterprises, promoting continuous upgrades in industry product strength [9].
行业透视|民企久违“登场”,是否昙花一现?
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-14 03:10
近期民企投资占比确有回温,长期投资仍然缺乏动力 ◎ 文 / 谢杨春、吴嘉茗 近期土地市场中,民企拿地的现象重回视野,诸如四川邦泰集团、敏捷集团等企业拿地引发市场诸多关注。从比例上来看,民企拿地占比确有回升,但我们认为, 整体投资力度还保持在低位,且未来持续增长的动力并不充分。 过去一轮调控后,民营房企经过了残酷的大浪淘沙,目前仍在投资拿地的房企已经与之前大不相同。一些中小规模房企进入视野,虽然这些房企的规模与巅峰时期 碧桂园、恒大等难以比肩,但有勇气投资拿地的民企依然值得关注和肯定,毕竟要实现市场的全面回暖复苏,还是需要更多民营资本的参与。 民企拿地占比回升7pcts 但整体投资力度保持低位 01 根据CRIC数据显示,2025年前5月重点30城民企拿地建面占比(以下简称拿地占比)为25%,这一比例已经高于民企在2022年、2023年和2024年的拿地占比,尤其 较2024年占比提升了近7个百分点。 按月度看,2月、4月和5月民企拿地占比尤其突出,分别达到34.4%、31.1%和27%,与2024年同期相比超出了7个百分点以上。 从面积的占比情况来看,民企拿地占比在2025年前5月确实有显著提升。 我们认为, ...
Day7 | 2025上半年中国房企产品测评入围项目展示
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-14 03:10
日前,"2025上半年中国房企产品测评"全国入围项目正式进入项目展示阶段。 2025上半年中国房企产品测评 工作启动于4月中下旬,收到 企业及业内专家推选的优秀项目踊跃参评, 初选的 入围项目已于6月3日揭晓。 详情请戳 《2025上半年中国房企产品测评入围榜》 本次所有入围项目仍将采用专家评审和网络票选结合的评选方式,最终评出 2025上半年 "全国十大高端/轻奢/品质 作品""全国好房子综合奖"等 ,目前相关测评工作正在有序进行中。 点击图片查看入围项目详情 高端入围项目 福州保利天瓒 鼓楼内环滨水豪宅 国际艺奢超前之作 开发企业:保利发展 产品类型:高层住宅 建筑风格:现代 广州保利天奕 人生得奕须尽欢 开发企业:保利发展 产品类型:高层住宅 建筑风格:现代 上海潮鸣东方 绿城中国30周年 一号作品 上海西岸生息社区实践 开发企业:绿城中国 产品类型:高层住宅 建筑风格:现代 余姚臻园 金相玉质,写意东方 开发企业:绿城中国 品质入围项目 产品类型:合院 建筑风格:新中式 重庆龙湖·观萃 四代美学奢宅,南重庆高奢生活样本 开发企业:龙湖集团 建筑风格:现代 北京长安华曦府 五大亮点构筑卓越产品力助力 项 ...
每周精读 | 碧桂园能否完成自救?京沪深杭二手挂牌量降幅收窄(6.2-6.8)
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-14 03:10
VIEW 克而瑞研究中心 "每周研究精读" , 聚焦宏观、行业、房企、土拍、产品、客需、榜单等多个研究 成果,与各界探讨行业运行逻辑、变数及未来趋势。 点击标题阅读全文 观点 评司论企|碧桂园能否完成自救? 行业透视|京沪深杭二手挂牌量降幅收窄,刚需抛压扩大,中改需求收缩 短期来看京沪深杭二手房市场还将稳中有降态势 研报 法拍房月报|5月成交率回升、交易量新高,参拍者信心快速修复(2 0 2 5年5月) 6月将迎来一手房交易量的季节性高位,受需求分流影响,预计法拍房交易量不会延续本月的快步上升势头。 土地 | 成交规模环比骤降,温州连续两周拍出高溢价宅地(6 . 2 - 6 . 8) 第23周土地供求规模均环比回落,三四线城市溢价率水平延续高位。本周重点城市监测供应建筑面积629万平方 米,环比回落13%,成交建筑面积148万平方米,环比骤降66%。本周一二线城市高溢价宅地成交比例维持低 位,周度平均溢价率回落至1%,创农历新年以来新低,不过三四线平均溢价率仍达到6.6%,连续两周超过 5%,主要是由于温州瓯海区优质宅地溢价成交带动。 产品力 市场无永远涨跌,政策护航下正趋积极。关键在适应新常态,耐心等待修复 ...
Day6 | 2025上半年中国房企产品测评入围项目展示
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-13 08:46
Core Viewpoint - The "2025 Mid-Year China Real Estate Product Evaluation" has officially entered the project display phase, with the initial shortlisted projects announced on June 3, 2023. The evaluation will combine expert reviews and online voting to determine the top projects in various categories [1]. Group 1: High-End Projects - The high-end shortlisted projects include "Guangzhou Yuexiu·Huafa Pazhou·Yue" which emphasizes a blend of urban and natural landscapes [1]. - "Shanghai Yuexiu·Bund Yue" is noted for its modern architectural style and is categorized as a contemporary masterpiece [2]. Group 2: Light Luxury Projects - The light luxury shortlisted project "Beijing China Merchants Sequence" aims to redefine improved living standards in Beijing [3]. - "Chengdu China Merchants Jincheng Sequence" features a unique landscape design inspired by the Sichuan region [5]. Group 3: Quality Projects - The quality shortlisted project "Shanghai Poly Hongqiao Hezhu" is characterized by its modern design and urban lifestyle appeal [8]. - "Shenzhen China State Construction Yipin·Hubei Cultural Tourism·Pengchen Yunzhu" is another high-rise residential project that reflects modern architectural trends [9]. Group 4: Evaluation Process - The evaluation process for the 2025 China Real Estate Product Evaluation has been ongoing since April, with a focus on enhancing industry product strength and meeting customer needs [11][12]. - The final awards for the top ten projects and the "Best House in China" will be announced at the end of June 2023 [11].