Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various ETF grid strategies focusing on specific sectors, highlighting the growth potential and market dynamics of the gaming, securities, Asia-Pacific, and dividend quality sectors in 2025 [3][10][13]. Group 1: Gaming ETF (159869.SZ) - In December 2025, a total of 1771 game licenses were issued, marking a 20% increase from 2024, indicating a supportive regulatory environment for the gaming industry [3]. - Chinese self-developed games generated $9.501 billion in overseas sales in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 11.07% year-on-year growth, showcasing strong international market performance [3]. - The application of AI in game development is expected to lower costs and enhance efficiency, potentially leading to innovative gameplay [4]. Group 2: Securities ETF Leaders (159993.SZ) - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 18.41% in 2025, with total A-share trading volume reaching 420.21 trillion yuan, a 62.64% increase year-on-year, setting a historical record [6]. - By December 30, 2025, the financing balance in A-shares reached 2.538525 trillion yuan, up 36.91% from the end of 2024, indicating a robust market environment [6]. - Over 60% of the 43 listed brokerages reported a net profit growth exceeding 50% in their Q3 reports, reflecting significant industry performance improvements [7]. Group 3: Asia-Pacific Selected ETF (159687.SZ) - The implementation of the upgraded China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 and RCEP is expected to enhance trade and investment liberalization in the Asia-Pacific region [9]. - The IMF forecasts a 5.1% economic growth rate for emerging markets and developing economies in Asia in 2025, contributing approximately 60% of global economic growth [10]. - The ETF tracks the FTSE Russell Asia-Pacific Low Carbon Select Index, providing investors access to core assets in the Asia-Pacific region [10]. Group 4: Dividend Quality ETF (159758.SZ) - Recent policies have shifted the corporate ecosystem towards a normalized dividend mechanism, enhancing shareholder returns [13]. - The ETF tracks the CSI Dividend Quality Index, selecting 50 companies with stable dividends and high profitability, aiming to balance high dividends with growth potential [13].

Equity Market Review and Outlook - The market maintained volatility with major indices showing mixed results during the three trading days from December 29 to December 31, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.13%, while the CSI 300 and ChiNext fell by 0.59% and 1.25% respectively [3] - The highlights were in thematic stocks related to commercial aerospace, robotics, and AI applications, with significant gains in sectors like oil and petrochemicals, defense, and media, while public utilities, food and beverage, and electrical equipment saw declines [3] - The average daily trading volume increased to 21,283 billion yuan, up by 1,632 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating heightened market activity [3] - The gradual rise in indices since mid-December is attributed to high expectations for the year-end market, driven by forward-looking investments for 2026 [3] - Concerns over geopolitical tensions in the U.S. and inflation expectations are influencing market sentiment, with a focus on upcoming non-farm employment and inflation data [3] Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - The bond market showed weak performance, with the 1-year government bond yield rising by 4.50 basis points to 1.33%, the 10-year yield up by 0.51 basis points to 1.84%, and the 30-year yield increasing by 2.96 basis points to 2.25% [6] - Factors influencing the bond market include reduced selling pressure from profit-taking at year-end and the implementation of new regulations on fund sales fees, which have eased concerns among institutional investors [6][7] - However, the central bank's stance indicates a low probability of interest rate cuts in the short term, and there are ongoing concerns regarding long-term bond supply [7] Public Fund Market Dynamics - The China Securities Regulatory Commission officially released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees for Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds" on December 31, 2025, marking the completion of a three-phase fee reform in the public fund industry [8] - The new regulations provide detailed guidelines on fund subscription and redemption fees, with specific provisions for index and bond funds, allowing for more flexible fee structures [8][9] - This adjustment aims to prevent large-scale redemptions that could lead to significant volatility in the bond market and to mitigate liquidity risks during bear market phases [9]

Key Points - The article discusses significant policy announcements from the Chinese government aimed at stimulating consumer spending and economic growth, including a large-scale equipment update and trade-in policy for consumer goods set to be implemented in 2026, with an initial allocation of 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds to support this initiative [2] - It highlights the exemption of value-added tax for individuals selling homes held for over two years, while those selling within two years will face a 3% tax rate [2] - The article notes that China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in December, marking the first expansion since April, indicating a recovery in both production and demand, with large enterprises also returning to expansion [2] Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend, influenced by concerns over long-term debt supply due to fiscal stimulus in 2026 and stronger-than-expected December PMI data, leading to a rise in long-term bond yields [4] - The A-share market is showing mixed performance, with a slight increase in the Shanghai Composite Index as year-end trading continues [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a cautious yet optimistic outlook for various asset classes in 2026, suggesting that while a bull market may continue, the pace of growth is likely to slow down, with a focus on high prosperity and high dividend rotation opportunities [3]. A-Share Market - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, particularly in the first half, although growth may be more moderate [3]. - Structural opportunities are highlighted, with a focus on high prosperity and high dividend rotation, rather than a broad market rally [3]. Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market may experience strong fluctuations in the first half of 2026, supported by the Federal Reserve's ongoing rate cuts [3]. - However, the second half may see increased volatility due to large IPO financing and changes in interest rate expectations [3]. Bond Market - The domestic bond market is anticipated to remain stable in the first half, with a slight decrease in interest rates expected in the second half due to increased economic pressure [3]. - The overall yield on government bonds is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend [3]. US Stock Market - The US stock market is projected to continue its positive trend in 2026, despite potential mid-year volatility due to uncertainties surrounding the elections [3]. - Factors such as a weak dollar, loose liquidity, and ongoing AI industry growth are expected to support the market [3]. Currency Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable and slightly strengthen in the first half of 2026, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [3]. - Increased volatility may occur in the second half as the Fed halts rate cuts, potentially supporting the dollar [3]. Gold Market - Gold prices are expected to continue a trend of gradual increase, although the overall growth may be slower compared to 2025 [3]. - Changes in Federal Reserve expectations may increase volatility in the gold market, but the long-term trend remains positive [3]. Investment Strategy - The strategy emphasizes focusing on high prosperity sectors, particularly in technology and growth styles, with recommendations to invest in industries with price increases and profit revisions [3]. - A diversified approach is suggested, including global assets such as Japanese and European stocks, as well as gold [3].

分析师：蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：周佳卉 登记编号：S0890525040001 投资要点 1.1 《银行保险机构资产管理产品信息披露管理办法》正式落地 收益率表现： 上周（2025.12.22-2025.12.28，下同）现金管理类产品近7日年化收益率录得 1.30%，环比上升3BP；同期货币型基金近7日年化收益率报1.21%，环比上行2BP。 上周各期限 纯固收和固收+产品收益普遍上升。 受益于人民币汇率走强（阶段性突破7.0关键关口）等因 素，权益市场震荡回暖，对债市形成阶段性扰动；但得益于资金面呵护托底，债市整体延续震 荡走势。全周来看，10年国债活跃券收益率较上周基本持平至1.84%，30年国债活跃券收益率 下行1BP至2.22%。 展望后市，债市情绪料将继续受到抑制，整体大概率维持震荡格局： 其 一，货币政策虽整体延续适度宽松基调，但市场对进一步宽松的预期分歧犹存；其二，当前债 市对基本面数据的敏感度持续偏低，利多消化空间有限；其三，尽管当前市场风险偏好较11月 前有所回落，但在低利率环境下，居民资产向权益市场转移的中长期趋势仍在延续，优质股权 资产作为新财富蓄水池的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various ETF grid strategies focusing on specific sectors, highlighting the growth potential and stability of the gaming, brokerage, Hong Kong central enterprise dividend, and Asia-Pacific selected ETFs, driven by favorable market conditions and regulatory support [3][11][15]. Group 1: Gaming ETF (159869.SZ) - As of November 2025, a record 178 domestic online games and 6 imported games were approved, with a total of 1,624 game licenses issued from January to November, surpassing the previous year's total [3]. - The overseas market for Chinese self-developed games generated actual sales revenue of $9.501 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.07%, indicating strong international market performance [3]. - The application of AI technology in game development is expected to reduce costs and enhance efficiency, potentially leading to innovative gameplay [4]. Group 2: Brokerage ETF (159842.SZ) - In the third quarter, 42 out of 43 listed brokerages reported positive net profit growth, with over 60% of them exceeding a 50% growth rate, indicating a significant improvement in the securities industry [6]. - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for continuous deepening of capital market reforms, which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of the brokerage sector [7]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission proposed to "loosen" restrictions for quality institutions, which may improve capital utilization efficiency for leading brokerages [7]. Group 3: Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (513910.SH) - Since the introduction of the new "National Nine Articles" in 2024, policies have been implemented to enhance cash dividend supervision for listed companies, shifting the focus towards regular dividend mechanisms [10]. - Policies aimed at encouraging long-term capital inflows have been introduced, enhancing the investment value of high-dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment [11]. - Defensive investment strategies are expected to gain favor as year-end approaches, with a focus on stable performance and predictable dividends [11]. Group 4: Asia-Pacific Selected ETF (159687.SZ) - The implementation of the upgraded China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is expected to promote trade and investment liberalization in the Asia-Pacific region [15]. - The IMF forecasts a 5.1% economic growth rate for emerging markets and developing economies in Asia in 2025, contributing approximately 60% of global economic growth [15]. - The ETF tracks the FTSE Russell Asia-Pacific Low Carbon Select Index, providing investors with access to core assets in the Asia-Pacific region [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the positive performance of the equity market, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an "eight consecutive days" rebound, driven by expectations of a "spring market" and increased trading volumes [3][7] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by global liquidity easing, particularly in the U.S., which is expected to support financial asset prices. Domestic monetary policy aims for cross-cycle adjustments, with a long-term easing bias remaining intact [3][8] - The bond market showed signs of stabilization, with short-term yields declining while long-term yields remained volatile. The current economic recovery is still uncertain, limiting the potential for significant adjustments in the bond market [4][9] Group 2 - The public fund market is witnessing significant interest, as evidenced by the successful subscription of the 华夏中核清洁能源 REIT, which attracted over 160 billion yuan in subscriptions, indicating strong investor confidence [11][12] - The REITs market is experiencing a broad increase, with the 中证 REITs total return index rising by 1.56%, driven by sectors such as affordable housing and industrial parks [10] - The article highlights the performance of various fund indices, with the growth stock fund index showing a notable increase of 4.20% for the week, reflecting strong investor interest in growth-oriented investments [14][22]

Investment Highlights - The article emphasizes the investment capabilities of Chen Huaiyi, highlighting his successful management of the Huabao Emerging Growth Fund, which has outperformed 96% of its peers since he took over in December 2021, achieving a cumulative excess return of 49.28% as of November 25, 2025 [6][7][8]. Fund Manager Information - Chen Huaiyi has a background in securities research and has been with Huabao Fund since September 2018, serving in various roles before becoming the fund manager of Huabao Emerging Growth in December 2021 [2][4][35]. - The Huabao Emerging Growth Fund has a total scale of 254 million yuan as of September 30, 2025 [6][35]. Investment Strategy - The investment framework is centered around "good industry, good company, good price," with a focus on technology manufacturing and a "beta-first" principle, capturing industries with strong upward trends over the next 2-3 years [3][14][36]. - The portfolio is divided into three parts: core positions in strong beta industries, alpha positions in undervalued companies during downturns, and a flexible portion for trading opportunities [3][14][36]. Performance Metrics - The fund has shown resilience during market downturns and has quickly rebounded during market recoveries, demonstrating a strong offensive capability [8][35]. - Performance metrics indicate a maximum drawdown of -37.38% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.44, reflecting a balanced risk-return profile [10][11]. Dynamic Optimization - Chen employs a dynamic optimization approach, maintaining high portfolio turnover and adjusting positions based on ongoing research and market conditions [28][30]. - The fund's high turnover rate, averaging 7-9 times, indicates an active management style focused on seizing emerging opportunities [30]. Stock Selection Characteristics - The investment strategy emphasizes matching valuation with fundamentals, favoring leading companies in niche markets while avoiding overvalued stocks [25][36]. - Chen's stock selection process involves deep research and expert consultations to identify better-positioned and higher-odds investment opportunities [25][36]. Conclusion - Overall, Chen Huaiyi is portrayed as a skilled fund manager adept at navigating the growth stock landscape in the manufacturing sector, utilizing a refined industry navigation and dynamic portfolio management approach to pursue excess returns [37].

下有底"的窄幅震荡格局。 A股全面回暖 随着中央经济工作会议的政策定调落地，市场对2026年宏观政策发力预期升温。同时，商 务部等部门围绕提振消费、支持人工智能与商业航天等前沿科技创新的政策表述持续释放， 有力提振了市场情绪与风险偏好。从历史经验看，岁末年初市场流动性通常相对宽裕，且处 于重要的政策窗口期，A股市场往往容易出现"跨年行情"或"春季躁动"。另外近期人民币汇率 企稳并呈现升值态势，成为推动本轮A股走强的直接助力之一。受此驱动，本轮跨年行情或 已于12月中旬前后启动。 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 01 重要事件回顾 1、今年第三季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）环比按年率计算增长4.3%，高于第二季度 3.8%的增速。三季度经济增速加快主要由于消费支出增长提速，以及出口和政府支出增 加。 (12.22-12.28) 02 周度行情回顾 债市维持震荡 市场对央行是否会在明年降准降息的预期不断变化，成为短期交易主线，导致投资者情绪和 交易行为频繁波动。尽管央行通过逆回购等操作持续呵护跨年资金面，但市场对中长期流动 性的宽松程 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the investment capabilities of Tang Hui, the manager of Huabao Growth Strategy Fund, highlighting her dynamic investment system based on industry trends and stock odds, which has led to superior performance compared to peers [2][3][31]. Fund Manager Information - Tang Hui has a background as a senior strategy analyst at Haitong Securities and joined Huabao Fund in June 2015, currently managing three products [4][30]. - Since taking over the Huabao Growth Strategy Fund on May 9, 2020, it has achieved a total scale of 146 million yuan by September 30, 2025, outperforming 97% of similar funds [6][30]. Performance Analysis - The Huabao Growth Strategy Fund has recorded a cumulative excess return of 83.04% since Tang Hui's tenure, significantly surpassing its performance benchmark [7][8]. - The fund's performance was particularly strong in years other than 2023, where it faced challenges due to market downturns, but is expected to show aggressive performance as the market recovers in 2025 [8][30]. Investment Framework - Tang Hui's investment framework combines a top-down approach focusing on macro trends with a bottom-up stock selection based on valuation and odds, allowing her to identify key positions within industry chains [14][16]. - The investment strategy emphasizes a combination of beta (60%-70%) and alpha (30%-40%) to balance risk and return, focusing on sectors with high growth potential [14][34]. Stock Selection and Portfolio Management - The portfolio management strategy involves dynamic adjustments based on market conditions, with a high turnover rate reflecting active tracking of industry trends and stock valuations [27][29]. - The fund's holdings are diversified across key positions in industry chains, ensuring exposure to multiple growth opportunities while managing risk through strategic stock selection [24][20]. Operational Characteristics - Tang Hui maintains a relatively high stock position and focuses on industry allocation and stock selection for excess returns, with a disciplined approach to portfolio adjustments based on market signals [27][29]. - The fund's operations are characterized by a responsive decision-making process, allowing for quick adjustments in response to changes in market conditions and stock valuations [29][30].