26Q1存储合约/现货价格涨幅超预期，涨价逐步蔓延至代工和封测等环节。 TrendForce预计常规DRAM 26Q1价格环比增长55%-60%，主要系26Q1原厂大规模转移产能至服务器和HBM应用，带来其他市场供应吃紧。NAND预计环 比增长33%-38%，原厂管控整体产能，且同样受到服务器的排挤效应。海外NAND 大厂闪迪此前曾向多家客户提出 100%现金预付的长期锁量方案，最长 或涉及3年合约，同时闪迪26Q1合约价格最高或有近翻倍增长，高于市场30%-40%的预期。存储产业链方面，以台系为例，随着美光等大客户的需求持续 增长，委外订单比重持续增加，力成、南茂等近期稼动率持续提升，叠加成本增加等因素传2026 年陆续给客户涨价，我们从国内存储代工和封测等渠道 了解到，都普遍存在产能吃紧和价格上调的现象。 全球存储价格从25H1复苏上涨以来，25Q3-Q4现货/合约价格加速上涨，近期逐步发现26Q1各品类存储价格环比涨幅超预期，我们预计2026年全年全球存 储供给整体维持偏紧状态，AI需求增长持续高于产能扩张速度，其他消费类存储和利基型存储受到产能挤压和下游恐慌备货等因素，价格涨幅也远超常 规水平，我们认 ...

点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 事件：公司公告25年业绩预告，公司预计25年归母净利41.6-45.6亿元，同比+260.4%~295.0%，扣非归母净利41.5-45.5亿元，同比 +263.6%~298.6%。公司表示其在AI算力、数据中心、高性能计算等关键领域，多款高端产品已实现大规模量产，带动产品结构向高价值 量、高技术复杂度方向升级，高端产品占比显著提升，推动公司业绩高速增长。结合市场和行业最近情况， 我们点评如下： Q4业绩环比增速表现低于市场预期。 单季度Q4归母净利9.2-13.2亿元，中值11.2亿元同比+186.1%环比+1.2%，扣非归母净利9.0-13.0 亿元，中值11.0亿元同比+202.8%环比+0.3%。公司Q4利润表现不及市场预期，我们认为可能原因：1）新产能爬坡：惠州厂房四和泰国工 厂的算力PCB产线于25Q3陆续投产爬坡，新增员工较多导致用工成本显著增加，且折旧摊销以及海外产能良率爬坡对整体毛利率亦有所拖 累；2）费用增加：目前大客户前沿的NPI项目增加，研发费用预计有所增加，且Q4汇率逆风，公司美元收入占比高，存在一定的汇兑损失； 3）供应链格局：N客户算力PCB ...

事 件： 汇聚科技于2026年1月16日发布业绩盈利预告，预计2025年公司净利润同比增长 60%~70%，我们点评如下： 25 年业绩同比增速 60%~70% ，数据中心、服务器业务高增及莱尼并表助力成长。 公司预计 2025 年年度纯利将实现 60%~70% 的增长，对应 7.2~7.7 亿港币。我们判断营收增长主要系电 线组件分部内数据中心及服务器分部的销售订单增加带动集团收入增加驱动，业绩超预期主要系 25 年阿里、字节等国产服务器需求带动公司服务器业务营收实现大幅增长，同时下半年莱尼整合 效果较佳亦带来业绩增厚。 26 年海内外 AI 算力建设高景气， MPO 及服务器业务有望核心受益。 展望 2026 年，预计全球 AI 算力建设持续高景气将带动公司 MPO 、服务器组装业务持续增长。 MPO 方面，公司产品紧跟 多芯数、高密度技术趋势， MPO 光纤跳线可配备 8/12/16/24/32 等芯数，具备 LC/MPO 及 SN/SN-MT 产品储备； 26 年新产品价值量有望持续向上。公司 MPO 海内外产能储备可观且持 续扩张，我们判断伴随大客户谷歌 capex 指引上修，以及公司积极拓展北美、 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's Q4 2025 financial results exceeded guidance, driven by improved capacity utilization and cost optimization, indicating strong demand for advanced process technologies [1][11]. Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue reached $33.73 billion, surpassing the guidance range of $32.2-33.4 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 25.5% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.9% [1]. - Gross margin was 62.3%, up 3.3 percentage points year-over-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, attributed to cost optimization and favorable exchange rates [1][11]. - GAAP net profit was $16.37 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 34.98% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11.82% [1]. - For the full year 2025, revenue was $122 billion, a 35.9% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 59.9% [1][12]. Advanced Process Technology - Advanced process nodes (3nm, 5nm, 7nm) accounted for 77% of revenue, with 3nm contributing 28%, 5nm 35%, and 7nm 14% [2][11]. - High-Performance Computing (HPC) revenue was $18.55 billion, slightly down 1.67% quarter-over-quarter, while smartphone revenue increased by 8.7% to $10.79 billion [2][12]. Future Guidance - For Q1 2026, TSMC expects revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 38.6% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.3% [3]. - Gross margin is projected to be between 63% and 65%, with potential dilution from overseas expansion and the ramp-up of 2nm technology expected to impact margins by 2-3% [3][16]. Capital Expenditure and AI Growth - Q4 2025 capital expenditure was $11.51 billion, with a full-year capex of $40.9 billion, and 2026 capex is expected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion [4][17]. - AI-related revenue is projected to account for 15% of total revenue in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for AI accelerator business expected to be 55-59% from 2024 to 2029 [4][19]. Global Manufacturing Expansion - TSMC is expanding its manufacturing footprint in Arizona, with plans for multiple fabs to meet strong demand, particularly in AI and HPC applications [20][21]. - The company is also establishing special process fabs in Japan and Germany, with ongoing investments in Taiwan to enhance advanced process capabilities [22][23]. Technology Development - The 2nm process is set to begin volume production in late 2026, with expectations for significant revenue contributions [23][33]. - TSMC is also introducing N2P technology, an extension of the 2nm series, aimed at optimizing performance and power consumption [23]. Customer Demand and Market Outlook - TSMC's customers, particularly in AI, are signaling strong demand for increased capacity, with ongoing efforts to address supply constraints [24][30]. - The company remains confident in the sustainability of semiconductor demand driven by AI and other high-performance applications [19][34].

Core Viewpoint - Dazhu CNC's 2025 performance forecast significantly exceeds expectations, driven by the expansion of computing PCB and technological upgrades, indicating strong growth potential in the PCB equipment industry [2][4]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.85-8.85 billion, with a median of 8.35 billion, representing a substantial year-on-year increase of 177%. The non-recurring net profit is expected to be 7.80-8.80 billion, with a median of 8.30 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 295% [2]. - For Q4 2025, the forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is 3.43 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 250% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 50%. The non-recurring net profit is projected at 3.55 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 759% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 57% [2]. Group 2: Industry Position and Product Development - Dazhu CNC is positioned as a leader in the mechanical drilling sector, with its CCD back-drilling machine showing significant advantages and doubling in value. The demand for orders is expected to increase quarterly, supported by a rising proportion of AI products, which enhances profitability [3]. - The company is preparing to double its production capacity this year, ensuring sufficient readiness for equipment delivery to PCB manufacturers in the coming years, with expectations of securing bulk orders from major PCB clients [3]. - The ultra-fast laser products from Dazhu are technologically advanced, offering advantages such as improved processing quality and efficiency, suitable for new technologies and material upgrades in the computing PCB sector [3]. Group 3: Equipment and Process Overview - Dazhu CNC's equipment includes exposure equipment, pressing equipment, drilling equipment, electroplating equipment, testing equipment, and forming equipment, each playing a critical role in the PCB production process [5][10]. - The exposure process involves high-precision imaging systems, while the drilling process utilizes advanced laser technology to address key interconnection challenges in PCB production [5][10].

Core Viewpoint - The company is planning to invest in a "High-Density Optoelectronic Integrated Circuit Board Project" to enhance its strategic development and advance cutting-edge technology research and industrialization [2][3]. Investment Plan Summary - The project will involve establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary in Changzhou, with a registered capital of 100 million USD and a total investment of 300 million USD, implemented in two phases [2]. - Phase one will invest 100 million USD to lease approximately 50,000 square meters of existing factory space, focusing on developing CoWoP and mSAP technologies, creating a closed-loop system for research, pilot testing, validation, and application [2]. - Phase two will depend on the results of phase one and market demand, potentially increasing investment by 200 million USD, acquiring about 60 acres of industrial land, and constructing an additional 60,000 square meters of clean factory space [2]. Expected Outcomes - Upon full production, the project is expected to add an annual capacity of 1.3 million high-density optoelectronic integrated circuit boards, generating an estimated annual revenue of 2 billion RMB and a pre-tax profit exceeding 300 million RMB [2]. Strategic Implications - The company's significant investment in CoWoP, mSAP, and optoelectronic integration technologies is anticipated to expand high-end product capacity, optimize product structure, and increase the proportion of high-value-added products, thereby enhancing competitive advantages and overall profitability [3]. - The acceleration of capacity expansion and globalization strategy is expected to drive rapid growth in performance, particularly as global AI technology development increases demand for computing power [3]. - The company aims to deepen strategic cooperation with leading clients in Europe and the US through H-share issuance, which is projected to significantly enhance the proportion of high-value products shipped [3]. Long-term Growth Outlook - The company maintains a clear long-term growth logic, aligning with the rapid development of AI computing power and expanding high-end capacity both domestically and internationally [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected to be in the range of **/**/** billion, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to be **/**/** billion, corresponding to an EPS of **/**/** yuan and a PE ratio of **/**/** times based on the current stock price [4].

Core Viewpoint - CES 2026 showcased significant advancements in AI-driven consumer electronics, with a focus on wearable devices, automotive technology, robotics, and IoT innovations, highlighting the integration of AI across various sectors [2][5][6]. Group 1: Wearable/IOT - AI glasses and camera headphones remain focal points in wearable technology, with over 50 companies participating, primarily from mainland China, emphasizing design improvements and multi-modal interactions [2][10]. - Headphone innovations shifted from audio performance to a combination of sound quality, AI integration, and multi-modal capabilities, with products featuring cameras and environmental awareness [2][13]. - New IoT categories, including smart imaging devices and AI home products, are gaining traction, with many startups entering the market [2][16]. Group 2: Automotive - AI is driving a comprehensive upgrade in automotive technology, with high-level autonomous driving expected to scale commercially [3][19]. - NVIDIA introduced the Alpamayo series of open-source AI models, enhancing the development of autonomous driving capabilities [3][19]. - Major automotive companies like Geely and Great Wall showcased their AI systems, while international brands are partnering with AI giants to enhance their offerings [3][24][26]. Group 3: Robotics - The robotics sector is evolving from household and service robots to humanoid collaboration, with significant participation from electronic companies [4][34]. - Innovations in household robots include advanced cleaning capabilities and a broader range of applications, while humanoid robots are becoming more sophisticated in interaction and movement [4][34]. - Chinese electronic companies are increasingly showcasing key components and technologies in robotics at CES 2026 [4][34]. Group 4: PC/Smartphone - Lenovo launched its first personal super intelligent system, Lenovo Qira, and announced a partnership with NVIDIA for AI infrastructure [4][36]. - Chip manufacturers like Intel, Qualcomm, and AMD are upgrading their products to enhance AI performance and user experience in PCs [4][39]. - The focus on AI integration in smartphones and PCs is expected to drive innovation and market growth in the coming years [4][39].

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang presented significant advancements in AI and computing technology at CES, highlighting the launch of the Vera Rubin chip and its applications in AI Agent and Physical AI [2][4]. Group 1: Vera Rubin Chip and Cabinet - The Vera Rubin chip has entered mass production, consisting of six types of chips, including Vera CPU with 227 billion transistors and support for 1.8 TB/s NVLink-C2C connections [2]. - The Rubin GPU features 336 billion transistors with HBM4 bandwidth reaching 22 TB/s, and single GPU NVLink interconnect bandwidth of 3.6 TB/s [2]. - The overall transistor count in the Rubin cabinet is 1.7 times higher than previous generations, with peak inference performance increasing by 5 times and training performance by 3.5 times [3]. Group 2: Design and Storage Enhancements - The Rubin computing board adopts a cable-free design, significantly improving assembly efficiency, reducing assembly time from 2 hours to 5 minutes [3]. - A new storage system, the NVIDIA Context Memory platform, has been introduced, featuring a separate rack that enhances cluster storage capacity and processing capabilities [3]. Group 3: Advancements in AI Technology - NVIDIA introduced the Alpamayo model, a 10 billion parameter visual-language-action model aimed at enhancing autonomous driving capabilities [4]. - The transition to Agentic AI represents a significant shift towards autonomous action, utilizing multi-model and multi-modal systems to create reasoning chains [4]. - The Physical AI platform integrates training, simulation, and inference processes, aiming to accelerate the deployment of Level 4 autonomous driving technology [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The CES showcase indicates a substantial upgrade in NVIDIA's VR platform, suggesting investment opportunities in the GPU sector and related hardware components [5]. - Attention is recommended for domestic computing power manufacturers and companies involved in advanced manufacturing, packaging, and HBM technologies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to invest approximately 4.5 billion RMB in a high-performance copper-clad laminate (CCL) project, aiming to enhance its competitiveness in the high-end materials sector and respond to the growing global demand for high-performance CCLs, particularly in AI, cloud computing, 6G communication, and smart automotive electronics [2]. Group 1: Investment and Expansion - The investment of 4.5 billion RMB is a strategic move to expand high-performance CCL production capacity, which is crucial for the company's future development [2]. - The project will cover an area of approximately 198,667.66 square meters (about 298 acres) and will have a usage period of 50 years [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Pricing - The company has initiated a price increase for its CCL products in October 2025, with expectations for further price hikes in Q1 2026 due to rising costs of upstream materials like copper and fiberglass [3]. - The continuous upgrade of high-speed materials is expected to enhance market share, with the company’s global market share anticipated to grow as it expands its customer base [3]. Group 3: Customer and Product Development - The company is actively pursuing overseas ASIC customers such as AWS, Google, and Meta, which could lead to significant breakthroughs in 2026 [3]. - The company’s S8/S9 high-speed materials are showing month-on-month growth, indicating a strong demand and successful scaling with key customers [3]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - The CCL industry is expected to maintain an upward trend, with the company’s production capacity and shipment scale of high-speed materials projected to grow rapidly, leading to improved profitability [4]. - The company maintains revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, with expectations of continued growth driven by high-end product advancements in AI computing and other sectors [4].

Core Viewpoint - Changxin Technology, the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer, is set to benefit from the upward cycle in the storage industry and continuous capacity ramp-up, with projected revenue of 55-58 billion yuan in 2025 and a gross margin exceeding 40% in Q4 2025, aiming for profitability in 2026 [1][3][23]. Group 1: Company Overview - Changxin Technology specializes in DRAM research and production, covering products such as DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR4, LPDDR5, and LPDDR5X, with a strong technological capability and a focus on data centers and mobile devices [2][10]. - The company has three 12-inch wafer fabs located in Hefei and Beijing, with plans for full production capacity by 2026 [4][26]. - Major shareholders include the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund and various industrial investment platforms, with no controlling shareholder [2][13]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 32.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98%, with an expected full-year revenue of 55-58 billion yuan, representing a 134% year-on-year growth [3][16]. - The gross margin is projected to turn positive in 2024, reaching 35% in Q3 2025 and exceeding 40% in Q4 2025, driven by rising DRAM prices [21][23]. - The company anticipates a significant reduction in losses in 2025, with a projected net loss of 1.6 to 0.6 billion yuan, and aims to achieve profitability by 2026 or 2027 [23]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Investment - The company plans to raise 29.5 billion yuan for production line upgrades, DRAM technology advancements, and forward-looking research, which is expected to stimulate demand for domestic equipment and materials [5][28]. - The investment will be allocated to three main projects: 7.5 billion yuan for production line upgrades, 18 billion yuan for DRAM technology upgrades, and 9 billion yuan for advanced DRAM research [29]. - The three production bases are strategically positioned to optimize product structure and enhance capacity, with a focus on transitioning to high-end product lines [25][26]. Group 4: Market Position and Future Outlook - Changxin holds approximately 4% of the global DRAM market share as of Q2 2025, with expectations for significant capacity expansion and technological advancements to close the gap with leading international manufacturers [30]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for DRAM in various sectors, including data centers and mobile devices, as well as the increasing trend of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry [19][30].