作者 | 深鹏 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 随着沪指盘中突破 3600 点，沪深北三市成交额达 18987 亿元， A 股牛味浓烈。 别看 " 3600 "只是一个数字，但却是非常具有标志性的事件。 因为这不仅是去年 " 924 "之后，沪指再一次冲上 3600 点，而且不同于去年，目前不管是宏观环境，还是流动 性，亦或是市场对于后市的预期，都要明显好于去年。 除了沪指之外，同样值得一提的，是 创业板指，今日盘中再创年内新高。自 6 月 23 日以来创业板指涨幅达 15% ，领涨宽基指数。 在多重有利因素的共同推动之下，市场继续向好的概率是比较高的，后市不管是大盘指数，还是科技创新指数，都 值得期待。 热 度不减 01 有券商先前就已经指出过，一旦牛市启动第二阶段，会经历明显的增量资金正反馈阶段，呈现的是 "资金流入—市 场上涨—驱动资金进一步流入" 。 而要形成增量资金正反馈机制，需要指数突破扭亏阻力位，从过去五年密集成交区域来看， 上证指数扭亏阻力为 3450 点左右，而 Wind 全 A 指数为 5400 点左右。 当指数突破 3500 点的时候，这个机制大概率已经被 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent surge in Hong Kong's stock market, particularly in technology and resource sectors, driven by macroeconomic conditions and government policies aimed at stimulating growth [1][4][16]. Group 1: Market Performance - Tencent, a trillion-dollar company, saw a 4.5% increase, while the Hong Kong broker ETF rose nearly 2.9% [1]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index and various sectors, including metals, coal, infrastructure, and agriculture, have shown a consistent upward trend [4]. - Notable gains were observed in companies like China Energy Construction and Dongfang Electric, with some stocks experiencing over 20% increases, and Dongfang Electric even exceeding 60% in a single day [4][5]. Group 2: Government Policies and Macro Conditions - The recent surge is linked to the government's anti-involution policies and significant infrastructure projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project [4][7]. - The macroeconomic environment has changed significantly compared to previous years, influencing market liquidity and investment behavior [8][16]. - The government's control over the Shanghai Composite Index is evident, with a focus on stabilizing the market and encouraging a rotation of capital from high-performing to underperforming sectors [12][13]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The article identifies three potential market scenarios based on global economic conditions: demand bear market, demand structure bull market, and demand comprehensive bull market [16]. - Recent trends indicate a shift in investment towards lower-priced stocks, including technology and previously undervalued sectors like liquor companies [13][17]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding institutional investment strategies during this volatile market phase to avoid losses [17].

ETF进化论 大佬们最新重仓股来了！ 原创 阅读全文 ...

ETF进化论 史诗级买入！国家队最新动向来了！ 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent approval of NVIDIA to resume sales of H20 computing cards in China and the introduction of new GPU products tailored for the Chinese market, highlighting the rapid progress of domestic semiconductor companies in the context of increasing local competition [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The loosening of restrictions is driven by the need to prevent overseas giants from losing market share in China due to the accelerated advancement of local competitors [1] - In the CMOS image sensor (CIS) sector, Sony has postponed its target of achieving a 60% market share by 2025 due to lower-than-expected sales from major clients and intensified competition in the high-end Chinese market [1][21] - Geke Micro has successfully captured the second position globally in terms of product sales, emerging as a significant competitor to Sony [1][21] Group 2: Geke Micro's Performance - Geke Micro achieved a revenue of 6.383 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 35.90%, while the first quarter of 2025 saw an 18.21% increase in revenue [3] - Despite high revenue growth, Geke Micro reported a net loss in the first quarter, attributed to strategic investments aimed at seizing technological leadership and optimizing product mix [3][5] - The company significantly increased its R&D expenditure to 952 million yuan in 2024, a 19.66% increase, with Q1 2025 R&D expenses surging to 262 million yuan, reflecting a 30% increase [3] Group 3: Strategic Shifts - Geke Micro's high-end product line, particularly those with pixel counts of 13 million and above, has become a key revenue growth driver, contributing approximately 40% to its mobile CIS business in 2024 [6] - The successful mass production of 50MP CIS products has allowed Geke Micro to penetrate mainstream Android brand supply chains, altering market perceptions of its reliance on low-end products [8][6] - The company’s management expressed confidence that the mass shipment of 50MP products will lead to a recovery in gross margins, supported by a stock incentive plan tied to revenue growth from high-pixel products [9] Group 4: Fab-Lite Model - Geke Micro's Fab-Lite model, which combines elements of traditional fabless and IDM strategies, is crucial for maintaining supply chain security and enhancing long-term competitiveness [10][12] - The shift towards the Fab-Lite model is evident among leading domestic chip design companies, aiming to secure core processes and ensure supply chain stability [12][14] - Geke Micro's self-built production lines enable close integration of design and manufacturing, facilitating rapid iteration and optimization of high-pixel products [15][16] Group 5: Market Position and Future Outlook - The semiconductor sector has faced significant volatility, with Geke Micro's stock performance reflecting broader industry trends [19] - Despite recent challenges, Geke Micro has demonstrated resilience, continuously enhancing its technological capabilities and market share [20] - The article concludes that the ability of domestic companies to build irreplaceable core technologies and capacities will determine the competitive landscape in the semiconductor industry [22]

Core Viewpoint - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower construction project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly impact the engineering machinery industry, creating substantial demand for various types of equipment [1]. Group 1: Equipment Demand - The Yarlung hydropower project, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan and a construction volume close to 500 million cubic meters, will create a market space of over 200 billion yuan for equipment, as equipment costs may account for nearly 20% of the total investment [2]. - Different stages of the project will require various types of machinery: large excavators, loaders, and bulldozers will be essential during the initial earthwork phase, while concrete machinery like mixers and pumps will be crucial during the main construction phase. Additionally, tunnel boring machines will be needed for water diversion [3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The engineering machinery industry is currently on an upward cycle, with excavator sales showing positive year-on-year growth since March of last year. The opening of the Yarlung project is seen as a "bonus" that will further enhance domestic demand for engineering machinery [4]. - The core driver of the industry's upward cycle is the replacement of old equipment, which has been ongoing since the sales of excavators turned positive. The Yarlung project will reinforce this upward trend, but the primary factor remains the demand for equipment replacement [4]. Group 3: Export and Domestic Demand - The engineering machinery industry's revenue is significantly supported by exports, which contributed approximately 52% of total revenue last year. The export momentum is improving, with a year-on-year increase of about 11% in June for excavator exports [5][6]. - Emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, are showing strong demand and growth. The European market is also recovering, with a notable year-on-year increase of about 29% in excavator exports to Western Europe [5][6]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The combination of a domestic upward cycle, favorable export conditions, and the additional demand from the Yarlung project positions the engineering machinery sector as a high-value investment opportunity. Following a valuation correction in May, the sector is currently at the lower end of its historical valuation range, making it an attractive time for investment [6].

Core Viewpoint - China Reinsurance has experienced significant value recovery, with a more than 275% increase since its low point in January 2024, marking its tenth anniversary in the Hong Kong stock market [1][3]. Industry Growth and Profitability Turning Point - The Chinese insurance market has seen substantial growth, with original premium income rising from RMB 2.4 trillion in 2015 to RMB 5.7 trillion in 2024, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.9%, surpassing the global CAGR of 4.7% [5]. - The reinsurance market in China has also grown, with ceded premiums increasing from RMB 150.16 billion in 2015 to RMB 278.28 billion in 2022, reflecting a CAGR of 9.2% [5][6]. - China Reinsurance's total premium income has grown from RMB 80.43 billion in 2015 to RMB 178.48 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.3% [6]. Competitive Advantages and Financial Performance - China Reinsurance has established itself as a leader in the reinsurance industry, with a return on equity (ROE) increasing from 2.09% in 2022 to 10.74% in 2024, marking the second-highest level in nearly a decade [8]. - The group's underwriting profitability has reached new highs, with a year-on-year growth of over 170% in 2024 [10]. Innovation and Internationalization - China Reinsurance has developed proprietary catastrophe models, enhancing its pricing power and risk management capabilities [14][15]. - The acquisition of the British Bridge Insurance Group in 2018 has significantly improved China Re's underwriting capabilities and international business presence, with Bridge's total premium income growing from RMB 9.614 billion in 2019 to RMB 22.269 billion in 2024, a CAGR of 18.3% [17][20]. Valuation and Market Position - China Reinsurance has historically traded at a low price-to-book (P/B) ratio, reaching as low as 0.2, and currently stands at 0.48, indicating a significant undervaluation compared to peers [22][24]. - The company is positioned to benefit from both domestic growth and international market opportunities, enhancing its long-term valuation prospects [30][31].

ETF进化论 朱少醒、张坤最新持仓来了！ 原创 阅读全文 ...

不过，我们看问题不能止步于外卖，可以看到， 堪称全球 "卷王"的中国，现在开始弥漫着反 内卷的气息。 比如外卖行业，如果放在几年前，某家企业宣布烧钱进军外卖，做大营收，资本市场往往是给 予认可，股价上涨，而现在市场明显厌倦了，卷者和被卷者股价都是下跌。 像光伏行业也是，前几年，这里上光伏项目，那里上，市场很开心，而今天再看到哪里上产 能，吓都吓死了。市场苦"卷"已久矣。 而企业的利润持续下滑，甚至巨额亏损，叠加 PPI 的不断负增长，也终于引起政府高层的重 视，从鼓励卷，到开始有点反内卷的意思。 有许多人想起了 2015 年开始的供给侧改革。背景确实有些相似，都是产能过剩，行业亏损或 者利润大幅下降， PPI 为负。那么以供给侧改革为参考，反内卷走到哪一步了？ 通缩环境下，投资人最怕听到的莫过于 "卷"，比如前几个月京东宣布进军外卖，两家股东都 是在骂娘，后面阿里也加入，三家公司的股价一起手拉手下跌，压得恒生科技指数抬不起头， 被称为外卖指数，直看着美股的纳斯达克一路新高。 年初的时候，大家说今年的市场要盯着巨头花钱方向，大家都以为方向会是 AI ，会是机器 人，会是这样的星辰大海，哪知道巨头们却是眼前的苟且 ...

ETF进化论 明星基金经理买入这只30倍热门股！ 原创 阅读全文 ...