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中国企业出海的新特点、新趋势|国际
清华金融评论· 2026-01-18 09:09
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new characteristics and trends of Chinese enterprises going global, highlighting the significant impact this phenomenon may have on the global economic landscape and the competitive dynamics between developing and developed countries [4][5][14]. Group 1: Characteristics of Chinese Enterprises Going Global - Since 2018, the trend of Chinese enterprises going global has shown unprecedented diversity in terms of participants and destinations, with a wide range of industries involved and a significant scale of operations [4][5]. - The motivations for Chinese enterprises to go global have evolved, including market expansion, resource acquisition, strategic investments, technology transfer, and cost reduction due to rising domestic labor costs [7][10]. - A notable characteristic is the large number of enterprises, including small and medium-sized enterprises and individual entrepreneurs, participating in this global expansion, which is unprecedented in history [10]. - Chinese enterprises are venturing into various industries, from low-end manufacturing to high-tech sectors like electric vehicles and fintech, showcasing a comprehensive approach to globalization [11]. - The phenomenon of cluster-based industrial chain expansion is emerging, where enterprises leverage domestic supply chains to enhance efficiency and cost-effectiveness in foreign markets [12]. - The scale of Chinese enterprises going global is substantial, impacting local economies and elevating their industrial levels [12]. Group 2: Impact and Trends of Chinese Enterprises Going Global - The global presence of Chinese enterprises is likely to reshape the world economic structure, potentially leading to rapid industrial upgrades in developing countries and creating competitive relationships with developed nations [14]. - A new industrial chain and supply chain dominated by Chinese enterprises may emerge, with local businesses gradually adopting Chinese standards and practices, particularly in sectors where China leads technologically [15]. - The trend of Chinese enterprises going global is expected to become a major force in international industrial transfer and cross-border investment, as traditional patterns of labor-intensive manufacturing relocation are unlikely to recur [16]. - Challenges may arise due to varying national systems, cultures, and legal frameworks, which could lead to friction between China and other countries [16]. - The article emphasizes the need for strategic government support to facilitate the global expansion of Chinese enterprises, ensuring their rights and interests are protected while promoting sustainable international operations [23][24]. Group 3: Financial Services for Outbound Enterprises - The demand for comprehensive financial services is critical as Chinese enterprises expand globally, necessitating a strategic approach to cross-border capital flow management [31][32]. - Shanghai is proposed to be developed as a service center for outbound enterprises, providing a range of financial products and services tailored to their unique needs [34]. - Collaboration between large financial institutions and smaller ones is encouraged to create a robust financial service chain that supports the diverse needs of enterprises going global [39].
估值理论、配置方法与产业革命|金融人文
清华金融评论· 2026-01-18 09:09
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the interplay between industrial revolutions and financial theories, highlighting how advancements in the real economy drive the evolution of asset valuation and allocation methods [4][5]. Group 1: Historical Context of Wealth and Financial Theory - Approximately 2000 years ago, the widespread use of iron tools in agriculture marked the beginning of material surplus, representing humanity's initial wealth [6]. - The Talmud introduced a simplistic wealth allocation principle of "1/3 land, 1/3 business, 1/3 savings," which lacked optimization efforts and was based on experiential rules [6]. - About 100 years ago, the outcomes of two industrial revolutions led to exponential growth in production capacity, shifting wealth accumulation from aristocracy to the emerging bourgeoisie, who began to view wealth as a means to expand production capabilities [6]. Group 2: Evolution of Investment Theories - The introduction of value investing by Benjamin Graham represented a breakthrough in asset allocation methodology, moving from a zero-dimensional approach to a more sophisticated understanding of investment value [6]. - The third industrial revolution, which transitioned humanity from the electrical age to the information age, democratized wealth ownership and introduced complex asset classes, leading to the development of modern portfolio theory by Harry Markowitz and William Sharpe [7]. - This theory incorporated the concept of risk-adjusted returns, fundamentally changing how investors construct portfolios and view expected returns and risks [7]. Group 3: Contemporary Challenges and Opportunities - Recent global events, including the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions, have prompted a reevaluation of expected returns and risk factors in investment strategies [8]. - The article notes that the historical reliance on financial returns as the sole measure of investment success is being challenged, as investors seek to understand and incorporate a broader range of risk factors into their decision-making processes [8].
消费与科技不是“谁主谁次”,而是“共生共荣”|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2026-01-17 10:35
Core Viewpoint - Consumption and technology are interdependent and should not be viewed as mutually exclusive; without consumer demand, technological innovation lacks sustainability and market value [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Innovation - Many people instinctively emphasize "technological innovation" as the core driver of economic growth, influenced by narratives around breakthroughs in chips, AI, and new energy [4]. - In 2024, China's total R&D expenditure is expected to exceed 4 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.8% of GDP, with the number of patents in fields like new energy vehicles and AI ranking first globally [4]. - However, technology that is detached from consumer demand often fails to achieve market success, as seen in cases where companies invested heavily in R&D but faced low order volumes due to weak consumer demand [4][5]. Group 2: Consumer Demand and R&D Investment - Over 70% of R&D investment in China comes from enterprises, which directly depends on their revenue situation; in 2024, the growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods is projected to be only 3.5% [5][7]. - The decline in consumer spending has led to a reduction in R&D budgets for many companies, with some cutting their innovation budgets by half due to lower sales [7]. - Consumer demand is crucial as it serves as both the endpoint of economic circulation and the source of funding for technological innovation [7]. Group 3: Policy Implications - Current policies tend to favor technological innovation over consumer stimulation, leading to an imbalance; while tax incentives for tech firms are increasing, consumer stimulus measures remain superficial [8]. - In 2024, the technology conversion rate in China is only about 30%, significantly lower than the 60%-70% seen in developed countries, indicating a gap in market acceptance of innovations [8]. Group 4: The Symbiotic Relationship Between Consumption and Technology - The relationship between consumption and technology is cyclical, akin to the "chicken and egg" scenario; successful technological advancements often depend on a robust consumer market [9][10]. - For China, while exports of "new three items" (likely referring to new energy vehicles, electronics, etc.) are growing, a weak domestic consumer market could lead to wasted production capacity and increased operational pressures on companies [10]. - To address these challenges, a dual approach is necessary: supporting technological innovation while also expanding domestic demand through job stability and income growth [10][11].
倪虹:高质量推进城市更新|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2026-01-17 10:35
文/ 住 房和城乡建设部党组书记、部长 倪虹 新征程上,我们要坚决贯彻落实党中央决策部署,顺应城市工作新形势、 改革发展新要求、人民群众新期待,高质量推进城市更新,大力推动城市 结构优化、动能转换、品质提升、绿色转型、文脉赓续、治理增效,牢牢 守住城市安全底线,努力走出一条中国特色城市现代化新路子。 2025年7月召开的中央城市工作会议明确提出,"以推进城市更新为重要抓手","以建设创新、宜居、美丽、韧性、文明、智慧的现代化人民城市为目 标"。这是以习近平同志为核心的党中央统筹中华民族伟大复兴战略全局和世界百年未有之大变局,科学把握城市发展方位,深刻洞察城市发展规律,就 推动城市高质量发展作出的重大战略部署。2025年底召开的中央经济工作会议强调,"高质量推进城市更新"。新征程上,我们要坚决贯彻落实党中央决策 部署,顺应城市工作新形势、改革发展新要求、人民群众新期待,高质量推进城市更新,大力推动城市结构优化、动能转换、品质提升、绿色转型、文脉 赓续、治理增效,牢牢守住城市安全底线,努力走出一条中国特色城市现代化新路子。 高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务 高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的 ...
等你来投!《清华金融评论》2026年3月刊“创新改革路径 推动资本市场高质量发展” 征稿启事
清华金融评论· 2026-01-16 09:36
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for innovative reform paths to promote high-quality development in China's capital markets, focusing on multi-level market construction, improving the quality of listed companies, opening up to foreign investment, and protecting investors [3][4]. Group 1: Reform Directions - The core content revolves around four major reform directions: enhancing the inclusiveness of multi-level markets, solidifying the foundation for market stability, expanding high-level institutional openness, and strengthening investor protection [3][4]. Group 2: Establishment of the Capital Market Society - The China Capital Market Society was registered on June 16, 2025, under the Ministry of Civil Affairs, supervised by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and aims to serve as a high-end think tank for theoretical research, academic exchange, and decision-making consultation in the capital market [3][4]. Group 3: Thematic Focus of Tsinghua Financial Review - The Tsinghua Financial Review plans to explore topics such as the support of capital markets for new productive forces, mechanisms for stabilizing the secondary market, capital market openness, and innovations in the bond market, aiming to find effective paths for capital market reform and innovation [4][5]. Group 4: Call for Contributions - The article outlines 13 specific topics for contributions, including enhancing the inherent stability of capital markets, the role of long-term funds in market stability, effective foreign market openness, and the innovation directions for the bond market [5].
邹加怡接任亚投行行长|政策与监管
清华金融评论· 2026-01-16 09:36
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the leadership transition at the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), with Jin Liqun stepping down and Zou Jiayi taking over as the new president for a five-year term starting January 2026 [2][5]. Group 1: Leadership Transition - Jin Liqun served as the first president of AIIB from January 16, 2016, and was re-elected for a second term starting January 16, 2021 [4]. - Zou Jiayi, a seasoned professional with over 30 years of experience in international development cooperation, has been elected as the next president of AIIB during a special meeting of the council on June 24, 2025 [5][14]. - Zou Jiayi has held various significant positions within the Ministry of Finance and has extensive experience in international financial organizations, including the World Bank and AIIB [6][10]. Group 2: Zou Jiayi's Background - Zou Jiayi has a strong educational background, holding a bachelor's degree in English from the University of International Relations and a master's degree in international economic relations from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences [5]. - Her career includes roles such as Deputy Director of the International Department of the Ministry of Finance, Executive Director at the World Bank, and Vice Minister of Finance [10][11]. - Zou has been involved in significant international discussions, emphasizing the importance of multilateral cooperation and the integration of market systems [14].
证监会:坚决防止市场大起大落
清华金融评论· 2026-01-16 09:15
Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the importance of risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development in the capital market, while addressing the challenges posed by multiple risks and uncertainties in 2025 [3]. Group 1: Achievements in 2025 - The CSRC has made significant progress in stabilizing the market, with a notable increase in medium- and long-term capital entering the market, leading to a recovery trend [3]. - A total of 701 cases of securities and futures violations were investigated, resulting in fines totaling 15.47 billion yuan, indicating enhanced regulatory enforcement [3]. - The total cash dividends and buybacks by listed companies reached 2.68 trillion yuan, reflecting a growing momentum for high-quality development [3]. - The total amount raised through IPOs and refinancing was 1.26 trillion yuan, while the bond market issued various bonds totaling 16.3 trillion yuan [3]. Group 2: Future Work Focus - The CSRC aims to maintain market stability and improve the quality of development by enhancing market monitoring and regulatory measures to prevent excessive market fluctuations [5]. - There will be a focus on deepening reforms in the capital market, including the implementation of the "1+6" policy for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the introduction of a third set of standards for the Growth Enterprise Market [6]. - The CSRC plans to strengthen legal enforcement and regulatory effectiveness, particularly against financial fraud and market manipulation, while improving the governance of listed companies [6]. - Efforts will be made to enhance the openness of the capital market, including optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) scheme and expanding the range of futures products available for foreign investment [7]. Group 3: Party Leadership and Governance - The CSRC emphasizes the importance of strengthening the Party's leadership in the capital market and enhancing the accountability of its regulatory framework [8]. - There will be a focus on improving the quality of the regulatory workforce and ensuring that the regulatory environment is conducive to high-quality market development [8].
鞠建东:为什么我们需要资本账户开放?|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2026-01-15 10:44
Core Viewpoint - The key assertion presented is that the rebalancing of global manufacturing is fundamentally linked to the rebalancing of the international monetary system, with a strategic window for capital account opening anticipated between 2026 and 2027 [2][6]. Group 1: U.S. Short-term Debt Default Risk and Triffin's Dilemma - The potential for U.S. short-term debt default is discussed, emphasizing the need for a balance between the real economy and the financial sector [4]. - The concept of "Triffin's Dilemma" is introduced, indicating that if the U.S. economy's share in the global economy falls below a certain threshold, it could lead to a default on its debt and the collapse of the dollar system [5][6]. - The Trump administration's approach to tariffs, dollar policy, and military actions are identified as tools to address the impending crisis related to Triffin's Dilemma [5]. Group 2: Global Economic Rebalancing - The rebalancing of the U.S. economy is framed as a structural adjustment between manufacturing and finance, necessitating collaboration with China and Europe [6]. - Data indicates that China's foreign exchange trading share is significantly lower than its GDP share, highlighting systemic issues related to its capital account not being open [6][7]. - The strong dollar is identified as a threat to U.S. manufacturing, leading to resource allocation issues and increased risks of debt default [7]. Group 3: Risks of Continued Global Imbalance - The ongoing global imbalance is attributed to differences in productivity and systemic issues within the international monetary framework, particularly China's closed capital account [8]. - Two potential paths to address this imbalance are proposed: a "Corner Solution" or an "Interior Solution" through capital account opening [8]. Group 4: Potential Crisis Development Paths - Two theoretical scenarios for China are outlined: the risk of a "Japan-style crisis" and the potential for military conflict if economic stagnation occurs [9]. - The second scenario suggests that as China's military and technological capabilities grow, the risks associated with the dollar crisis may increase, potentially leading to military actions by the U.S. [10]. Group 5: Goals for Renminbi Internationalization and Capital Account Opening - The goal of renminbi internationalization is to establish it as a normal currency in the international monetary system, rather than to challenge the dollar's dominance [12]. - A structured approach to capital account opening is proposed, emphasizing the importance of timing, floating exchange rate mechanisms, and gradual opening of capital projects [13][14]. Group 6: Strategic Opportunity Period and Cooperation Suggestions - The years 2026-2027 are identified as a strategic opportunity for capital account opening, with a call for proactive measures to avoid forced openings due to conflict [15]. - A recommendation is made to use the opening of the renminbi capital account as a leverage point for global cooperation to address manufacturing imbalances [15].
世界银行:预计2026年全球经济增速2.6%,较去年6月的预测有所上调|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2026-01-15 10:44
当 地 时 间 1 3 日 , 世 界 银 行 ( 下 称 " 世 行 " ) 发 布 最 新 一 期 《 全 球 经 济 展 望》报告,显示尽管贸易紧张局势与政策不确定性持续存在,全球经济的 韧性仍超出预期。 世行预计未来两年全球增速大体保持平稳,2026年为2.6%,2027年回升至2.7%,较去年6月的预测有 所上调。 不过,世行也表示,即便当前预测正确无误,2020年至2030年可能是20世纪60年代以来全球经济增长 最疲软的十年。 世行认为,增长乏力正导致全球生活水平差距拉大:到2025年底,几乎所有发达经济体的人均收入均 已超越2019年水平,但约四分之一发展中经济体的人均收入仍低于2019年。 仍展现出韧性 报告显示,尽管面临贸易紧张局势和政策不确定性加剧,过去一年全球经济在人工智能(AI)投资大 增等因素影响下仍展现出韧性。 世行表示,2025年,政策变动前的贸易激增与全球供应链的迅速调整支撑了经济增长。然而随着贸易 与内需走弱,这些提振效应预计将在2026年消退。 不过报告认为,全球金融条件趋于宽松及多个大型经济体的财政扩张应有助于缓冲经济下行。受劳动 力市场趋软及能源价格下降影响,预计20 ...
央行:将下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率
清华金融评论· 2026-01-15 08:01
人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜1月15日在国新办新闻发布会上表示。根据当前经济金融形势需要,人民银行将先行推出两方面政策措 施。 一方面 是下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率,提高银行重点领域信贷投放的积极性。 另一方面 是完善结构性工具并加大支持力度,进一步 助力经济结构转型优化。具体包括以下几项: 一是下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点。 各类再贷款一年期利率从目前的1.5%下调到1.25%,其他期限档次利率同步调整。 二是将支农支小再贷款与再贴现打通使用,增加额度,并单设民营企业再贷款。 合并使用支农支小再贷款与再贴现额度,增加支农支小再 贷款额度5000亿元,总额度中单设一项民营企业再贷款,额度1万亿元,重点支持中小民营企业。 三是增加科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度并扩大支持范围。 将科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度从8000亿元,增加4000亿元至1.2万亿元,并 将研发投入水平较高的民营中小企业等纳入支持领域。 四是合并设立科技创新与民营企业债券风险分担工具。 将此前已经设立的民营企业债券融资支持工具、科技创新债券风险分担工具合并管 理,合计提供再贷款额度2000亿元。 五是拓展碳减排支持工具的 ...