作者 Long Player ，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。 尽管收益实现了不错的增长，但 Netflix（NFLX）的却在下跌。 即便是现金流有所增长。但这表明该公司此前估值过高，目前正回归现实， 而非公司业务出现了严重问题。事实上，收购华纳兄弟探索频道（WBD）的提议，纠正了该公司商业模式中一段时间以来日益明显的一些缺 陷。 如今，收购华纳兄弟探索频道的提议似乎给了市场一次现实检验，而这是 市场几乎无法通过其他方式面对的。结果就是， Netflix 目前正朝着 更现实的估值区间迈进。 | NFLX - Netflix, Inc. | NFLX Summary | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $87.26 -0.74 (-0.84%) 4 00 PM 01/20/26 | | | | | | | | | | | | NASDAQ SUSD Post-Market $83.09 -4.17 (-4.78%) ...

来源 | 华尔街见闻 黄金市场的游戏规则已经改变。黄金不再仅仅是央行的游戏，私营部门的巨鲸们正在入场，并且他们是为了对冲"全球政策风险"而来。 据追风交易台消息，高盛全球投资研究部商品团队分析师Daan Struyven与Lina Thomas在1月21日的报告中，将2026年12月黄金目标价 上调至5400美元/盎司（此前为4900美元）。上调预测的核心理由并不新奇：央行买金仍强；美联储降息有利ETF；地缘与政策不确定性提 升避险需求。 真正"改变预测起点"的，是他们此前反复提示的一个上行风险正在落地——私人部门对冲与配置黄金的需求开始显性化，而且 更"黏"（sticky）：买进后不容易在短期内撤出，抬高了金价中枢。 从 " 央 行 主 导 " 到 " 央 行 + 私 人 部 门 抢 金 " 高盛把过去三年的上涨拆成两段： 2023-2024 ：央行买金驱动的稳步上行 在俄央行外汇储备被冻结事件之后，央行（尤其新兴市场）对"储备资产的中立性/可用性"重新评估，增配黄金推动金价分别实现 较大年度涨幅。 宏观政策型对冲 （例如财政可持续性、货币纪律与长期通胀风险、全球政策不确定性）更难在短期被"解决"，因此对冲 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, presenting significant opportunities in the market [3]. Group 1: AI Developments - Baidu officially launched the Wenxin 5.0 model, which features 2.4 trillion parameters and supports various forms of information processing, ranking first in China and eighth globally in the LMArena text leaderboard [5]. - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang stated that AI development will require the largest infrastructure investment in human history, estimating that trillions of dollars will be needed, with over $100 billion expected to be invested in AI startups by 2025 [6]. Group 2: Funding and Investments - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman is reportedly meeting with top investors in the Middle East to raise at least $50 billion, aiming for a valuation between $750 billion and $830 billion [8]. - OpenAI's CFO defended the introduction of ads in ChatGPT as a means to democratize access to AI, stating the need for a strong business model to achieve broader accessibility [10]. Group 3: Product Innovations - Apple is developing a wearable AI pin device, similar in size to AirTag, with plans for mass production of 20 million units [9]. - Apple plans to significantly revamp Siri into its first AI chatbot, codenamed "Campos," which will integrate deeply into its operating systems and offer enhanced functionalities beyond the current capabilities [11]. Group 4: Open Source and Community Engagement - The Hugging Face community reported that the Qianwen series of models surpassed 1 billion downloads, becoming the first open-source large model to achieve this milestone [10].

美国银行首席投资策略师Hartnett认为，特朗普正在推动全球财政扩张，催生"新世界秩序=新世界牛市"格局。在这一框架下， 黄金和白银 牛市将持续，而当前最大的风险在于日元、韩元和新台币的快速升值可能触发全球流动性紧缩。 日元目前接近160，逼近历史最弱水平，兑人民币汇率创下1992年以来最低。Hartnett警告称，如果这些超弱的东亚货币出现快速升值， 将 导致亚洲资本外流逆转，威胁全球市场的流动性环境。 在资产配置上，Hartnett建议 做多国际股票和"经济复苏"相关资产，同时看好黄金长期前景。他认为中国是其最看好的市场 ，因为中国通 缩结束将成为日本和欧洲牛市的催化剂。 黄金有望突破6000美元的历史新高 ，而小盘股和中盘股将在利率、税收和关税削减政策下受益。不过，这一乐观前景的持续取决于美国失业 率能否保持低位，以及特朗普能否通过降低生活成本提升支持率。 来源 | 华尔街见闻 新 世 界 秩 序 催 生 全 球 牛 市 假设日元短期内不会崩盘，Hartnett认为市场正在进入"新世界秩序=新世界牛市"阶段。特朗普正在推动全球财政扩张，接替拜登此前的做 法。 Hartnett强调，新世界秩序不仅催生股 ...

美联储主席亲自出席此类案件的口头辩论实属罕见。 但关于总统能否以特朗普所尝试的方式罢免美联储理事的问题，在美联储内部被视为可 能关乎央行生存的根本性问题。 鲍威尔在1月11日一份不寻常的公开声明中透露自己正受到刑事调查，并称调查的所谓理由只是一个借口，其真正原因在于包括他和库克在内 的美联储理事会，去年未按照特朗普的要求快速降低利率。 鲍威尔于2018年被特朗普任命担任该职务，他似乎摆脱了去年对特朗普一再攻击央行的温和反应， 转而支持更公开的对抗 。 以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 金十财经 . 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 来源 | 金十财经 据知情人士周一向美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）透露，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）计划于周三出席美国最高法院 的一场口头辩论。此案的核心，是质疑美国总统特朗普是否有权罢免美联储理事莉莎·库克（Lisa Cook）。 鲍威尔计划出席之际，其本人正因涉及美联储总部数十亿美元装修项目及相关国会证词，而受到华盛顿特区美国检察官办公室的刑事调查。 美联社率先报道了鲍威尔的这一计划。 【如需和我们交流可后台回 ...

Group 1 - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology is creating widespread opportunities in various sectors [3] - Ant Group's AI assistant, Ant Aifu, has launched a DeepSearch feature on its PC platform, providing professional services to medical professionals and significantly reducing their daily workload [5] - Baidu's Wenxin Assistant has surpassed 200 million monthly active users, establishing itself as one of the three major AI entry points in China [6] - ByteDance's AI Agent platform, Douzi, has announced a 2.0 brand upgrade, integrating various capabilities to enhance user experience [8] - Micron Technology has reported an unprecedented shortage of memory chips driven by the surge in demand for AI infrastructure, affecting traditional sectors like mobile and personal computers [9]

作者 James Foord ，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味着本公 众号对文中观点结论认可。 过去12个月，美光暴涨逾250%。 其上涨逻辑简洁且极具说服力。 人工智能模型需消耗海量高速DRAM与NAND闪存，随着越来越多企业部署人工智能基础设 施，美光有望抢占这一领域的大量支出份额。 换句话说，内存需求将凌驾于计算需求之上，因此，未来优先采用"内存优先"设计的架构将更 具优势。 内存芯片市场 关键在于， 当前内存领域存在真实的供给瓶颈——这意味着美光不仅销量提升，还能以更高价 格出货。 这一点从其云内存业务100%的增长率中可得到印证。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 在人工智能推理时代，这一趋势尤为明显——人工智能的迭代升级建立在过往知识积累之上， 而这些知识必须依靠内存存储。 随着人工智能模型复杂度提升，内存占用量的增长速度将超过计算需求。 | Amounts in millions | FQ1-26 | FQ4-25 | Q/Q % Change | FQ1-25 | Y/Y % Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

去年一整年，分析师本人始终对超微电脑的持悲观态度，背后原因众多，毛利率承压便是其中 之一。 但分析师在 11 月的报告中就曾指出，并且至今依然观察到，当前投资者对超微电脑的看空情 绪已呈现过度拥挤的态势。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 分析师 过去一年对超微电脑的评级历史 随着服务器零部件价格飙升，投资者担忧超微电脑的营收含金量将大打折扣 —— 毕竟该公司 当前的远期市销率仅为 0.5 倍。 然而，市场恰恰忽视了超微电脑未来业务的强劲增长潜力，这也让其成为了当下最被低估的投 资标的之一。 在此，分析师重申对超微电脑的 看多立场 。 市场对超微电脑的看空情绪之所以愈演愈烈，背后实则事出有因。 作者Uttam Dey，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味着本公众号 对文中观点结论认可。 但凡对市场稍有了解的投资者都清楚，受服务器零部件成本上涨，尤其是存储芯片价格暴涨的 影响，整个人工智能服务器行业正面临巨大的毛利率压力。 去年年底，存储芯片价格的飙升已然波及包括超微电脑在内的多家服务器制造商。 多方研究数据显示，无论是人工智能服务器还是通用服务器，存储组件在其物料成本中占比高 达 30% ...

Core Viewpoint - Helios transforms AMD from a semiconductor supplier to an AI solutions company, making it a more attractive entry point after a 10% decline in stock price since the last analyst report [2] Group 1: Product Integration and Revenue Generation - AMD's Helios integrates MI455 GPU, EPYC Venice CPU, and Pensando networking into a repeatable rack-level solution, allowing revenue confirmation across various silicon product levels [3] - The Helios architecture enables AMD to capture multi-product line revenue, positioning it as a turnkey AI platform provider, which is bullish due to increasing market demand for scale and deployment speed [4] - AMD's revenue growth is now linked to bundled system demand rather than just single silicon categories, potentially smoothing out volatility between CPU and GPU cycles [8] Group 2: Customer Interaction and Market Demand - AMD's design choices for Helios are based on deep interactions with major customers, optimizing AI data center maintainability and reliability [5] - The anticipated growth in computing demand is significant, with projections of over 100 zetta FLOPS by 2025 and a target of 1 yotta FLOPS within five years [5] - AMD's partnerships with OpenAI and Luma AI support its strategy to address total cost of ownership (TCO) pressures while targeting scale requirements [8] Group 3: Financial Projections and Revenue Visibility - AMD's future financial performance is closely tied to the acceleration of AI computing expansion and customer capital expenditures, with significant revenue growth expected from extreme scale computing demand [10] - Revenue estimates show substantial growth, with projections reaching $137.35 billion by December 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 23% [10] - The shift to a system-level product approach enhances revenue visibility and future growth potential, which the market has not yet fully accounted for in AMD's valuation [9][10] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Helios is a capital-intensive product, and any tightening of enterprise customer capital expenditures could impact AMD's revenue growth [11] - The annual rhythm of product releases places pressure on AMD's execution, with potential increased development costs if customer adoption lags behind chip generations [11] - AMD's strategy of targeting multiple layers within a single system introduces complexity in supply chain and manufacturing, increasing risk exposure to revenue disruptions and pricing pressures [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected decline in initial jobless claims in the U.S., reaching the lowest level since November of the previous year, indicating a potentially stable labor market despite recent layoffs announced by major employers [4][7]. Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - Initial jobless claims decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, which is below market expectations [4]. - The four-week moving average of new claims fell to 205,000, the lowest in two years [7]. - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits dropped to 1.88 million in the previous week [8]. Group 2: Employment Market Insights - Despite recent layoffs from companies like PepsiCo and Meta, actual data shows no significant increase in widespread layoffs [7]. - A survey from the University of Michigan indicates that nearly two-thirds of consumers expect the unemployment rate to rise in the coming year [7]. - Non-farm payroll data showed a modest employment increase of 50,000 in December, below the expected 60,000, with the unemployment rate adjusted to 4.4%, down from a previous 4.6% [8].