Core Viewpoint - The volatility of silver prices has intensified due to the increasing popularity of leveraged exchange-traded products (ETFs), leading to unprecedented price fluctuations [5][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The largest leveraged ETF, ProShares Ultra Silver ETF (AGQ), accelerated a significant drop in silver prices on January 30 by selling billions of dollars worth of silver [5]. - AGQ's forced rebalancing mechanism, triggered by a nearly one-third drop in silver prices, resulted in an estimated $4 billion worth of silver futures being sold [5]. - The surge in popularity of leveraged ETFs, with nearly one-third of newly launched products last year featuring some form of leverage, has significantly impacted daily price movements of silver [9]. Group 2: Price Movements and Speculation - Silver prices have fallen over one-third since reaching a historical high, with the market experiencing its most extreme volatility since 1980 [10]. - Speculative trading is severely disrupting the price discovery process for precious metals, leading to self-sustaining volatility detached from real market fundamentals [12]. - The recent price fluctuations have also negatively affected base metal markets, with copper prices dropping below $13,000 per ton [12]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The extreme volatility in precious metals is making it increasingly risky for banks to trade with investors, as holding positions has become highly precarious [13]. - The liquidity issues in trading have exacerbated volatility, indicating that derivative market activities could significantly influence prices [13]. - Analysts suggest that if silver prices fall below the $70 mark, it could heighten risk aversion across all assets, as the metal has not been in the $60 range since December [13].

作者 Michael Del Monte ，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味 着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。 超威半导体（AMD）2025 财年收官业绩表现强劲，营收实现乐观增长，同时利润率大幅改善 。公司规划雄心勃勃，计划在 2026 年下半年推出 MI400 系列 GPU，2027 财年发布 MI500 系列 GPU。随着 AI 开发者与企业开始扩充 AI 推理专用算力，AMD 有望迈入全新增 长轨道。凭借 2026 财年稳健的业绩展望，叠加 2025 年第四季度财报发布后的股价大幅回 调，分析师将 AMD 评级上调至 强力买入。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 A M D 业 务 运 营 情 况 2025 年第四季度，AMD 凭借 MI350 系列 GPU 与 霄龙（EPYC）CPU 实现亮眼销售业 绩，净营收同比大增 37.58% 。2025 财年霄龙实例部署量增长尤为突出，云服务提供商 （CSP）部署量增幅超 50%，企业端部署量翻番以上。 2025 年 Q4 的核心看点在于 AMD 下一代 Instinct 系列 AI 加速专用 GPU 矩阵： · MI455X 与 H ...

Core Viewpoint - The sentiment on Wall Street regarding OpenAI has dramatically reversed, with previously favored stocks now facing sell-offs, while Alphabet has emerged as a major winner in the AI sector, with its stock price rising approximately 36% since October of last year [5][7]. Group 1: Market Sentiment Shift - Investors are increasingly skeptical about OpenAI's financial sustainability, despite its signing of several billion-dollar contracts, leading to concerns about its ability to fulfill commitments [8]. - The market narrative has shifted from favoring OpenAI to preferring Alphabet, as highlighted by analysts who note that the reliance on OpenAI for revenue has become a liability for companies like Microsoft and Oracle [9][10]. Group 2: Alphabet's Performance - Alphabet's AI investments have generated significant returns across the company, with CEO Sundar Pichai reporting over 750 million monthly active users for Google Gemini, an increase from 650 million in the previous quarter [12]. - Google Cloud revenue surged by 48% in the December quarter, exceeding Wall Street expectations, which has bolstered investor confidence [12]. Group 3: Broader Market Dynamics - A Deutsche Bank report indicates that the AI investment frenzy has entered a "cleansing" phase, with the S&P 500's performance largely supported by Alphabet, while many other tech stocks have experienced significant declines [7][14]. - The report emphasizes a decisive shift in market sentiment from a belief that all tech stocks would succeed to a more brutal reality of clear winners and losers, with Alphabet being the standout performer [14][15].

整理 | 美股研究社 "增长的斜率和速度可能会比人们想象的要慢，但是真实存在的，"Effron在佛罗里达州西棕榈 滩举行的《华尔街日报》Invest Live大会上表示。 英伟达CEO黄仁勋认为，当前在多国给电网带来压力的人工智能（AI）算力大规模布局，最终 将推动能源成本下降。黄仁勋称，为增加电力供应所做的相关投资，加之人工智能在能源生产 与配电环节的应用，将逐步助力降低能源成本。"这一趋势必然会到来，能源成本终将下降。" 黄仁勋说，"市场驱动力正迫使我们加大对能源供应的投入，能源供应能力提升，同时我们也 在推动电网的现代化升级。" 【辉瑞后疫情时代转型：AI驱动降本增效，每月一次减肥药数据点燃未来预期】 1、财务业绩： 2025年营收626亿美元（同比降2%），主要受新冠产品需求大幅萎缩影响。 但非新冠业务营收增长6%，显示出核心业务的韧性。 在这个快速 变 化的 时代， 人工 智能技术正以前所未有的速度发展，带来了广泛的机会 。 《AI日 报 》致力于挖掘和分析最新的AI概念股公司和市场趋势，为您提供深度的行 业 洞察和 价 值 分析。 A I 快 报 【黄仁勋：AI产业布局终将降低能源成本】 2、重磅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market's reaction to AMD's Q4 earnings report is seen as excessive, as a deeper analysis reveals significant changes in AMD's revenue structure, indicating a future increase in high-margin business segments. Analysts maintain a bullish outlook for AMD, particularly for the second half of 2026 [3][9]. Business Segment Performance - **Data Center Business**: Revenue surged to $5.4 billion, a 39% year-over-year increase, nearly accounting for half of total revenue, driven by increased shipments of MI350 series chips and record sales of the Turin series CPUs [5]. - **Client Business**: Revenue rose to $3.1 billion, a 34% year-over-year increase, confirming analysts' expectations of a recovery in the PC market, with AMD's high-value product lineup enhancing profitability [6]. - **Gaming Business**: Revenue was $850 million, representing 8.18% of total revenue, with a 50% year-over-year increase, although it saw a 35% quarter-over-quarter decline due to market maturity [6]. - **Embedded Business**: Revenue grew slightly by 3% year-over-year, contributing minimally to overall performance [7]. Margin and Profitability Outlook - Analysts note that despite market reactions to net profit adjustments related to sales to China and inventory write-downs, AMD's gross margin is expected to improve by approximately 100 basis points year-over-year due to business structure optimization [7][9]. - AMD is projected to achieve a gross margin target range of 55%-58% as the 2nm process technology matures, which will enhance operational leverage through 2024-2025 [10]. Future Growth Catalysts - AMD is becoming a key competitor to NVIDIA in the system-on-chip market, with upcoming products like the Instinct MI450 series and Venice Turin server CPUs utilizing advanced 2nm technology, expected to deliver significant performance improvements and power savings [10][11]. - A strategic partnership with OpenAI is anticipated to drive growth, with initial revenues expected in Q4 2026, marking a long-term opportunity for AMD [15]. Market Expectations and Valuation - Analysts forecast a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 37% for EPS and 30% for revenue over the next five years, with AMD's current valuation metrics indicating a price target of $477.17 per share, representing over 114% upside potential from post-earnings levels [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - Supermicro (SMCI) reported strong Q2 results for fiscal year 2026, exceeding market expectations and driving stock price rebound to approximately $32, despite overall bearish sentiment in the AI sector [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved actual revenue of $12.68 billion, surpassing market consensus by 22.6% [3]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) exceeded expectations by approximately 41%, with a significant quarterly performance that restored investor confidence [3]. - Revenue growth was impressive, with a sequential increase of over 100% and a year-over-year increase of 123% [4]. Business Segments and Growth Drivers - The Data Center Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) segment is gaining market acceptance and is expected to contribute double-digit profits by the end of fiscal year 2026 [4]. - Management's focus on customer diversification is anticipated to reduce revenue concentration risk in the coming quarters [4]. Innovation and Operational Efficiency - The company continues to invest in innovation, developing products compatible with NVIDIA and AMD architectures, while also enhancing operational efficiency through automation and streamlined processes [5]. - Analysts believe that these fundamentals will enable the company to meet high performance targets for Q3 and the full fiscal year 2026 [5]. Valuation and Market Position - Despite a 7% stock price increase post-earnings, the valuation remains attractive, with a projected revenue of $40 billion for fiscal year 2026 and a current market cap of under $20 billion, resulting in a forward price-to-sales ratio below 0.5 [5]. - Historical forward price-to-sales ratio suggests a reasonable market cap should be around $44 billion, indicating a significant undervaluation [5].

以下文章来源于芯东西 ，作者ZeR0 芯东西 . 芯东西专注报道芯片、半导体产业创新，尤其是以芯片设计创新引领的计算新革命和国产替代浪潮；我们是一群追"芯"人，带你一起遨游"芯"辰大海。 来源 | 芯东西 他也曾是ATI R300和R600系列的首席架构师。当年R300创造过辉煌历史，搭载它的Radeon 9700和9500系列显卡曾对当时英伟达的产品 构成强有力的挑战。AMD收购ATI后，德默斯成为AMD图形部门的首席技术官，然后在2012年加入高通。 业界普遍认为，德默斯的加入会令英特尔GPU团队实力大增。 芯东西2月4日消息， 据外媒报道，英特尔CEO陈立武周二透露，英特尔计划生产GPU。"我刚刚聘请了首席GPU架构师，他非常优秀。我很 高兴他能加入我的团队。"陈立武说，并称自己费了一番功夫才说服他。 此前在今年1月，在高通工作长达14年的资深GPU硬件架构师 埃里克·德默斯（Eric Demmers） 宣布加入英特尔。他在领英网发表的一篇文 章中写道，过去几个月，他多次与陈立武交谈和会面，对陈立武的信心和乐观态度印象深刻，也对在新英特尔工作并参与这一持续转型感到兴 奋。 德默斯曾担任高通工程高级副总裁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices, highlighting a rebound after a significant drop, driven by market dynamics and geopolitical factors [5][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices rebounded to $4950 per ounce, with a daily increase of 6%, while silver prices surged to $89 per ounce, marking a nearly 12.5% rise [5]. - The sell-off in precious metals began after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh for the next Federal Reserve Chair, which eased concerns about the Fed's independence [7]. - A significant drop of 10% in gold prices occurred during Asian trading hours, attributed to investors borrowing heavily to bet on rising precious metal prices [7]. Group 2: Investment Behavior - Market participants are engaging in buy-the-dip behavior, common after a 20% decline in asset prices, as noted by Yuxuan Tang from JPMorgan [7]. - The CME Group raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures, reducing the leverage available to traders, which may impact precious metal prices in the short term [8]. - Private investors are now the primary drivers of gold price increases, seeking to hedge against geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over currency devaluation [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Deutsche Bank maintains its forecast for gold prices to rise to $6000 per ounce this year, while JPMorgan expects prices to reach between $6000 and $6300 by year-end [8]. - Analysts believe the recent price adjustment provides a beneficial opportunity for investors to build long-term strategies at more attractive entry points [8]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, may influence gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, potentially exerting pressure on prices if negotiations progress [9].

作者 C Jessen ，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味着本公众号 对文中观点结论认可。 德州仪器（TXN）1月27日盘后公布了2025年四季度业绩：营收达44.2亿美元，同比增长 10.2%，较市场预期低2000万美元 ；每股收益（EPS）为1.27美元，较预期低0.04美元。 尽管业绩略不及预期，但其在盘后交易中逆势上涨5%，次日开盘后的涨幅更是超出预期，从 盘后的5%升至6.5%。 虽然从市场预期来看，四季度表现略显疲软，但推动其上涨的核心因素是公司发布的业绩指 引。 管理层预计2026年一季度营收为43.2-46.8亿美元，每股收益为1.22-1.48美元，中点预期 显示营收将环比加速增长。 此外，与去年同期发布的指引相比，本次一季度指引大幅改善——去年同期营收指引上限为 40.6亿美元，每股收益指引上限为1.16美元。 这种同比显著改善，在分析师看来，标志着公司业务情绪和发展势头已出现转变。 自2022财年以来，德州仪器的营收和利润均大幅下滑，管理层曾多次强调，在行业下行周期 叠加公司推进激进资本开支计划的背景下，需要股东保持耐心。如今，公司似乎已走出困境， 或至少已非常接 ...

来源 | 华尔街见闻 黄金正面临自2024年牛市开启以来最关键的技术测试之一。 据The Market Ear分析 ， 金价必须在4600美元（上下浮动50美元）附近企稳，以维持其建设性的市场结构。 当前的下跌主要是由于前期 过度的"错失恐惧症"（FOMO）交易以及缺乏下行风险管理所致，相对强弱指数（RSI）已从91骤降至46，显示出市场已从极度超买迅速转 为自去年8月以来的最低超卖水平。 在经历了一轮由过度拥挤的动量交易引发的剧烈抛售后，金价已回落至去年9月以来的陡峭趋势线附近，并在夜间的迷你闪崩中测试了50日均 线。 万 亿 美 元 热 钱 与 市 场 结 构 失 衡 然而，市场结构的脆弱性依然令人担忧。花旗研究指出，过去三年黄金持有者积累的账面利润高达约20万亿美元，而推动本轮上涨的资金流 入仅约1万亿美元。 这意味着仅需5%的获利盘回吐，就足以抵消全球所有的实物需求，这种巨大的存量获利盘如同一把悬在金价上方的"达 摩克利斯之剑"。 尽管短期内仍有支撑，但机构对中期前景已转趋谨慎。花旗维持未来0至3个月5000美元/盎司的目标价，但预计随着地缘政治风险在2026年 下半年消退以及美联储独立性的确认，金价 ...