"高切低"风格转换下建筑板块如何布局 建筑装饰 证券研究报告 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.10.20 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -11% -5% 1% 8% 14% 20% 建筑装饰 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《建筑装饰 3Q2025 年季报前瞻》 2025-10-13 2. 《如何重估中 国中冶 的 矿产资源》 2025-09-22 3. 《如何看待新疆基建景气度》 2025- 09-06 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 前 3 季度基建投资趋弱，年底工作量改善尚需等待。从资金到位情况来 看，截至 10 月 19 日专项债已发行 3.7 万亿元，同比增长 2.01%。但受政府 化债和保民生等影响，专项债用于广义基建的比例约 31%，较去年全年 45% 的占比下滑较为明显。根据统计局数据，2025 年 1-8 月狭义/广义基建投资 额分别同增 2.00%/5.42%，环比 M1-7 分别-1.2pct/-1.87pct；8 月单月 狭义/广义基建投资额分别同比-5.85 ...

分析师 张立 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090004 zhangli01@ctsec.com 相关报告 白酒行业深度报告 食品饮料 证券研究报告 行业深度分析报告 / 2025.10.20 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -9% -3% 3% 8% 14% 20% 食品饮料 沪深300 分析师 吴文德 SAC 证书编号：S0160523090004 wuwd01@ctsec.com 1. 《渠道变革专题（二）》 2025-10-19 2. 《政策舆情双驱动，行业规范化与集中度 加速提升》 2025-09-15 3. 《食品饮料 2025 年中报总结》 2025- 09-08 两轮白酒调整节奏异同对比及当下投资机会 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 两轮白酒调整节奏异同对比：2013-2016 年白酒产业及股价调整，其原 因在于工业企业利润及房地产开发投资增速下降等拖累商务场景消费，其后 三公消费禁令对政务用酒场景需求造成冲击，白酒批价及上市公司业绩出现 巨大调整。从产业调整的节奏看，以高端白酒为例，五粮液及国窖 1573 出厂 价下调领先于批价见底反弹，在批价见底企稳及白酒行业收入 ...

期货｜反弹可能进入下半场 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.10.19 核心观点 ❖ 国债期货周度技术分析——反弹途中，如有调整仍为参与机会 本周 10 年国债期货在周二出现探底回升、之后持续反弹。 T 与 TL 的反弹可能仍在延续，观察 TL2512，当前可能处在反弹的第三浪中， 下周可能出现调整，回落极限位置关注 114.8-114.9 附近，回落后可能仍有 第五浪上涨，最终目标暂时关注 116 上方与 60 日线附近。 相关报告 ❖ 国债期货数据跟踪——全线上涨，可以择机参与正套策略 1. 《转债市场三季度业绩预告怎么看》 2025-10-19 2. 《利率 | 震荡市还是牛市？怎么看利 差？》 2025-10-19 3. 《流动性 | 资 金 延 续 乐 观 判 断 》 2025-10-18 本周国债期货全线上涨。 本周国债期货成交活跃度整体上升。本周各期限国债期货 2512 合约日均成 交较上周整体上升、仅 TS 回落。从成交量/持仓量来看，除 TS 以外均上升。 本周 2512 合约 CTD 净基差全线下行，IRR 全线上升。当前 IRR 显著回升， 正套策略参与价值恢复，可以择机参与。 ...

两只巴西主题 QDII 或将问世—公募基金周报 证券研究报告 基金周报 / 2025.10.19 分析师 缪铃凯 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060003 miaolk@ctsec.com 3. 《单周新发基金规模创近 3 年新高—公 募基金周报》 2025-09-22 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 韩乾 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060004 hanqian@ctsec.com 分析师 张淼 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080008 zhangmiao@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《交银施罗德基金时隔 14 年后重启 ETF 产品线布局—公募基金周报》 2025- 10-12 2. 《最大货基余额宝官宣降费—公募基金 周报》 2025-09-29 ❖ 重要资讯：首批基金三季报出炉：科技赛道仍是"核心仓位"；个人养老基 金名录新增 8 只产品；月内多只基金产品提前结募、比例配售。 ❖ 市场回顾：上周（20251013-20251017，下同）A 股市场主要宽基指数呈 现下跌趋势。截至上周五收盘，上证指数收于 3839.76，下跌 1.47%。沪深 300 指数收于 ...

Core Insights - The defense and military industry index experienced a decline of -4.70% over the past week, ranking 23rd out of 31 in the Shenwan primary industry [7][41] - The current PE-TTM for the defense and military industry is 83.33, which is at the 76.67 percentile compared to the past decade, indicating a relatively high valuation level [12][15] - The report highlights significant individual stock performances, with North China Long Dragon leading with an increase of 8.71% over the past week, while Guorui Technology saw a decline of -14.00% [17][41] Industry and Stock Market Review - The defense and military industry index has shown a decline of -1.92% over the past month, ranking 11th out of 31 [9][41] - Over the past year, the industry index has increased by 16.91%, ranking 19th out of 31 [3][41] - The trading volume for the defense and military industry reached 310.8 billion yuan this week, a year-on-year decrease of -8.63% but a week-on-week increase of +128.08% [31][34] Important Company Announcements - The report includes various significant announcements from companies in the defense sector, such as strategic cooperation agreements and stock repurchase plans [38] Industry News - Indonesia confirmed its plan to purchase Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets, with a defense budget of at least 9 billion USD approved [40][41] - Successful launches of low-orbit satellite internet groups and the sixth batch of the Qianfan constellation were reported, indicating advancements in commercial aerospace [40][42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key investment themes such as military trade, commercial aerospace, unmanned equipment, military AI, and low-altitude economy [43]

建材行业策略周报 建筑材料 证券研究报告 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.10.19 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -9% -3% 4% 10% 16% 23% 建筑材料 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 分析师 陈琳云 SAC 证书编号：S0160524120005 chenly03@ctsec.com 相关报告 | 1. 《建筑材料 3Q2025 年季报前瞻》 | | --- | | 2025-10-13 | | 2. 《建材行业策略周报》 2025-10-07 | | 3. 《建材行业策略周报》 2025-09-29 | 资金高切低+格局优化，推荐消费建材板块 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 资金"高低切换"叠加细分行业格局优化，消费建材板块值得关注。资 金端，近期资金流向防御板块，中美关税摩擦后续或为常态，市场资金向与国 内经济周期深度绑定的内需型板块转移。建材板块以内需为主导，或为资金 避险选择的方向之一。基本面端，消费建材细分行业竞争格局正在改善，龙头 集中度有望提升。在涂料龙头企业发布提 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - As of October 18, 2025, 117 listed companies have disclosed their Q3 earnings forecasts, the lowest in the past five years. About 84% of them announced positive news, similar to 2024. Most companies issued pre - increase announcements (60% of all forecasts). Only 10 convertible bond companies disclosed Q3 earnings forecasts, half the number of 2024, with 9 announcing positive news [2][6][14]. - Basic chemicals, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and machinery industries had more positive news. The non - ferrous metals and media industries showed significant improvement compared to 2024. Seven non - ferrous metal companies announced pre - increase, and 2 announced turnaround; 1 media company announced turnaround and 1 pre - increase [2][8]. - Four convertible bond listed companies, Luxshare, Limin, Bojun, and Downtow, reported positive Q3 earnings for two consecutive years. Luxshare expects a 20% - 25% net profit increase in Q3, Limin may see a year - on - year net profit increase of over 600%, Bojun expects a 50% - 80% net profit increase, and Downtow's Q3 profit may increase by over 30% [2][13][14]. - The market style may be switching, and geopolitical uncertainties increase market volatility. The risk appetite in the convertible bond market may have declined. Selecting high - quality convertible bonds during the earnings season may be a key strategy, especially those with consistently excellent performance [2][14]. Summaries by Directory 1. Q3 Earnings Forecasts: How to View the Convertible Bond Market - The number of listed companies disclosing Q3 earnings forecasts in 2025 is the lowest in the past five years, with a similar structure to 2024. The proportion of companies with positive news is about 84%, the same as in 2024. In the convertible bond market, only 10 companies disclosed forecasts, half the number of 2024, with 9 announcing positive news [2][6][14]. - Basic chemicals, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and machinery are industries with more positive news. Non - ferrous metals and media industries improved significantly compared to 2024. 15 companies mentioned AI contributions in their earnings forecasts, with 14 reporting positive results and most planning to increase AI investment [2][8][11]. - Four convertible bond listed companies had positive Q3 earnings for two consecutive years, with specific reasons for profit growth provided for each company [2][13][14]. 2. One - Week Market Performance - As of Friday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3839.76, down 1.47% for the week; the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 474.22, down 2.35% for the week. The top - three rising industries in the stock market were banks (+4.99%), coal (+4.27%), and food and beverages (+0.85%), while electronics (-7.10%), media (-6.28%), and automobiles (-6.24%) declined [15]. - No new convertible bonds were listed this week. 45 convertible bonds rose, accounting for 11%. The top - five and bottom - five in terms of price changes are listed. 266 convertible bonds' conversion premium rates increased, accounting for 64%, and the top - five and bottom - five in terms of valuation changes are also listed [17]. 3. Major Shareholders' Convertible Bond Reductions - Nanjing Pharmaceutical announced a convertible bond reduction this week. A table shows the convertible bonds with high major shareholder holding ratios and their reduction status [25][26][27]. 4. Convertible Bond Issuance Progress - The primary - market approval process remains fast. Zhongqi Co., Ltd. (1.039 billion yuan), Mankun Technology (760 million yuan), and Huatong Cable (800 million yuan) have board proposals. Haitian Co., Ltd. (801 million yuan) has passed the shareholders' meeting, and Tianzhun Technology (872 million yuan) has received CSRC approval [27][28]. 5. Private EB Project Updates There were no progress updates on private EB projects this week [28]. 6. Style & Strategy: Large - Scale High - Rating Bonds Prevailed This Week - Using month - end rebalancing for back - testing and excluding bonds rated below A - and those with announced forced redemptions, large - scale high - rating convertible bonds prevailed this week. High - rating bonds had a 2.63pct excess return over low - rating bonds, large - scale bonds had a 1.89pct excess return over small - scale bonds, and equity - biased bonds had a - 8.24pct excess return over debt - biased bonds [29]. 7. One - Week Convertible Bond Valuation Performance: Convertible Bond Valuations Declined - The convertible bond market's 100 - yuan premium rate declined. As of the last trading day of the week, it closed at 29.31%, down 0.29% from the previous week, at the 86.5% historical percentile in the past six months and 93.6% in the past year. The median full - scope conversion premium rate increased by 0.78pct to 28.61%, and the market - value - weighted conversion premium rate (excluding banks) increased by 1.69pct to 41.46% [40]. - For equity - biased convertible bonds, the median conversion premium rate closed at 10.58%, down 1.12pct from the previous week, at the 80.6% historical percentile in the past six months. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the median pure - debt premium rate closed at 10.78%, down 1.43pct from the previous week, at the 71.4% historical percentile in the past six months [40]. - In terms of extreme pricing, as of the last trading day of the week, there was 1 convertible bond below par value, 0 below the bond floor, and 2 with a YTM greater than 3, at the 9.2%, 0%, and 6.7% historical percentiles since 2016 respectively. The median YTM of bank convertible bonds was - 3.97%, 5.84pct lower than the 3 - year AAA corporate bond yield; the median YTM of AA - to AA+ debt - biased convertible bonds was - 1.48%, 3.59pct lower than the 3 - year AA corporate bond yield [44]. - The adjusted 100 - yuan premium rate remained flat. After excluding factors such as bond nature and remaining term, it was at the 84.3% historical percentile in the past six months and 68.9% since 2018. Considering only the bond floor, it was at the 82.6% historical percentile in the past six months and 34.8% since 2018 [56].

利率 | 震荡市还是牛市？怎么看利差？ 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.10.19 核心观点 ❖ 债市依然"看空者众"，未来究竟是震荡市还是牛市？我们认为或仍是牛市。 债市的利率上限清晰，一方面是老生常谈的弱基本面、资产荒、配合财政等逻 辑，另一方面是 9 月中下旬大行对 7~10y 国债大额买入，已经为利率画出了 一条清晰的上限，背后可能体现了政策维稳意图，10 年国债利率超过 1.8% 具有绝对价值。对于下限，一方面是价值评估，对比机构久期、比价效应，债 市利率下行空间至少在 20bp；另一方面是交易考量，低利率、极度内卷，机 构为了博弈弹性，必须左侧交易、把握波段、久期极致。参考 3-4 月，当利 空出尽、利好落地，行情可能就已经到尾声。 从利差来看，今年三季度中等期限品种利差已经压缩，而超长债利差和品种 利差反而走阔，背后是大行大额买 3-5y 国债、基金降久期、农商行季末调 仓、保险买入不强等因素的集中反应。伴随市场情绪回暖，无论是震荡市还是 牛市，超长债利差与品种利差均有压缩机会。 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a focus on "internal" growth, prioritizing new economy sectors such as AI software, AI chips, semiconductor equipment and materials, and aerospace engines, alongside traditional sectors like finance and resource industries [4][11] - There are emerging signals of easing, suggesting a shift towards external demand-related sectors in the third quarter, particularly in North American computing power and innovative pharmaceuticals [11][12] - The report anticipates that growth will likely remain the leading style in the mid-term bull market, despite low probabilities for deep adjustments in growth due to a lack of strong policy expectations [12][18] Market Review and Outlook - The report reviews the market's transition towards large finance and consumption sectors, noting a rebound following the maximum negative impact of tariffs [9][10] - It highlights that the Shanghai Composite Index has risen over 10% to above 3800 points since the mid-year strategy [9] - The report suggests that the current market environment, influenced by U.S.-China trade tensions, presents a good opportunity for allocation despite a tendency for market participants to remain cautious [10][11] Growth and Performance Analysis - The report indicates that TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors are experiencing sustained growth, with revenue and profit growth rates expected to continue improving [5][17] - It notes that the performance expectations for TMT sectors, including computing power and applications, have been consistently underestimated, with upward revisions anticipated as market understanding improves [17][27] - The report also discusses the relative valuations of U.S. tech stocks, indicating they are high but not at extreme levels compared to historical peaks [15][22] Investment Strategy - The report recommends prioritizing investments in sectors that are "internally focused," including autonomous controllable technologies and consumer sentiment-driven sectors [11][12] - It suggests that the market may face various expectation changes in October, but a stabilization in risk appetite is expected to lead to renewed market momentum [10][11] - The report outlines three potential scenarios for deep adjustments in growth, none of which are currently met, indicating a favorable outlook for growth sectors [12][18]

零售快速放量，业绩持续兑现 三棵树(603737) 证券研究报告 装修建材 / 公司点评 / 2025.10.19 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 12476 | 12105 | 12754 | 13582 | 14436 | | 收入增长率(%) | 10.03 | -2.97 | 5.36 | 6.49 | 6.29 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 174 | 332 | 1084 | 1341 | 1597 | | 净利润增长率(%) | -47.33 | 91.27 | 226.69 | 23.68 | 19.10 | | EPS(元) | 0.33 | 0.63 | 1.47 | 1.82 | 2.16 | | PE | 144.27 | 67.62 | 31.49 | 25.46 | 21.38 | | ROE(%) | 7.10 | ...