证券研究报告 固收点评报告 / 2025.09.04 核心观点 至于债券市场，去年会议后利率先见顶震荡、后快速下滑，这一走势不一定具备可参 考性，但从本次会议传递的信息来看，对债市至少是利好，流动性可以更加乐观，债 市利率的"顶"更加清晰，无论是一级发行还是二级交易，都被注入了更多"内在稳 定性"， 我们继续看好 1.75%/2.0%左右的 10 年国债/30 年国债。 此外，会议强调金融市场运行，可能也意指股市稳定性，因此未来货币更宽松、财政 更积极，股债可以双牛。 利率 | 财政和央行工作组会议提前召开？ 但会议总体基调确实对债券更有利，我们继续看好 1.75%/2.0%附近的 10 年期国债 /30 年国债。货币财政协同性提升对流动性表现偏利好，也有助于降低后续的债券供 给冲击，债市更不需要担心大幅调整，叠加"买卖国债预期升温"或给债市一定修复 契机，我们建议把握左侧机会。 ❖ 风险提示：对政策理解不透彻；经济表现可能超预期；市场走势存在不确定性 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号： ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2][9] Core Viewpoints - Recent policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as the "2025 Shaoxing City Consumption Promotion Policy," are expected to benefit cyclical sectors, particularly in the liquor and restaurant chains [5] - The policy includes subsidies for banquet consumption, which will directly stimulate demand for liquor and benefit suppliers in the banquet consumption chain [5] - The report anticipates that similar policies may be adopted in other regions, which could enhance overall consumer demand and support the recovery of liquor demand and banquet supply chain enterprises [5] - The restaurant industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle but is expected to gradually recover due to ongoing policy support, with specific recommendations for various segments including liquor, restaurant chains, beer, and yellow wine [5] Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown a performance of -7% over the last 12 months, compared to 2% for the CSI 300 and 11% for the Shanghai Composite Index [4] Policy Impact - The Shaoxing policy provides tiered subsidies for banquet consumption, with a maximum of 5,000 yuan for events with five tables or more and total spending exceeding 10,000 yuan [5] - The policy is expected to stimulate banquet consumption during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, benefiting liquor demand [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: - Liquor: Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinshiyuan [5] - Restaurant Chains: Hai Tian Wei Ye, Anji Food, Angel Yeast, and Qianwei Central Kitchen [5] - Beer: Qingdao Beer, China Resources Beer, and Yanjing Beer [5] - Yellow Wine: Kuaijishan and Guyue Longshan [5]

Group 1 - The construction industry faced overall pressure in the first half of 2025, with a slight improvement in cash flow in Q2 [6][10][12] - The industry's revenue and profit both declined year-on-year, with total revenue of 3.92 trillion yuan, down 5.63%, and net profit of 936.2 billion yuan, down 5.33% [12][26] - The gross profit margin for construction companies was 10.14%, a slight decrease of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased marginally to 2.39% [6][10][20] Group 2 - The construction industry saw an increase in cash collection efficiency, with the cash collection ratio rising by 6.29 percentage points to 95.11% [6][31] - The industry's asset-liability ratio increased to 77.52%, up 0.57 percentage points from the beginning of the year, indicating a rise in financial leverage [6][34] - The total amount of funds occupied by downstream owners increased, with accounts receivable and inventory reaching 10.03 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.57% [27][30] Group 3 - The chemical engineering and petroleum engineering sectors showed resilience, with positive revenue growth, while the steel structure sector also saw profit recovery due to overseas expansion [11][39][40] - In the first half of 2025, only two sub-sectors, steel structure and chemical engineering, achieved positive revenue growth of 2.81% and 1.33% respectively [39][41] - The gross profit margin for the international engineering and petroleum engineering sectors improved, with international engineering at 15.14%, up 3.26 percentage points [43][44]

研发取得较快进展，积极拓展具身智能业务 知行科技(01274) 证券研究报告 软件开发 / 公司点评 / 2025.09.03 投资评级:增持(维持) | 基本数据 | 2025-09-02 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 12.73 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 2.57 | | 每股净资产(元) | 3.75 | | 总股本(亿股) | 2.57 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -60% -26% 9% 43% 77% 112% 知行科技 恒生指数 软件开发 分析师 邢重阳 SAC 证书编号：S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号：S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《新获某头部车企泊车项目定点，推动智 驾平权》 2025-04-10 2. 《深耕智驾域控行业，持续拓展优质客 户》 2024-10-14 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | - ...

业绩同比高增长，提升全球供应保障力 爱玛科技(603529) 证券研究报告 摩托车及其他 / 公司点评 / 2025.09.03 投资评级:增持(维持) | 基本数据 | 2025-09-02 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 35.36 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 8.48 | | 每股净资产(元) | 10.83 | | 总股本(亿股) | 8.69 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -4% 7% 18% 28% 39% 49% 爱玛科技 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 邢重阳 SAC 证书编号：S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号：S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《毛利率同比提升显著，业绩同比高增 长》 2025-04-27 2. 《毛利率同比提升显著，期间费用率有所 提升》 2024-11-07 3. 《Q2 业绩同比高增长，毛利率同比提升 显著》 2024-08-27 核心观点 公司财务报表及指标预测 | [Table_FinchinaDetail] 利润表(百万元) 2023A ...

公募基金首破 35 万亿元—公募基金周报 证券研究报告 基金周报 / 2025.09.02 分析师 缪铃凯 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060003 miaolk@ctsec.com 分析师 韩乾 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060004 hanqian@ctsec.com 分析师 张淼 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080008 zhangmiao@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《FOF 基金 2025 年二季报分析：偏股 型 FOF 业绩领先，增配债券型基金》 2025-07-31 2. 《主动权益基金 2025 年二季报分析：加 仓科技减仓消费，港股市场关注度持续提 升》 2025-07-25 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 重要资讯：公募基金首破 35 万亿；我国 ETF 总规模突破 5 万亿元。 ❖ 市场回顾：上周（20250825-20250829，下同）A 股市场主要宽基指数呈 现上涨趋势。截至上周五收盘，上证指数收于 3857.93，上涨 0.84%。沪深 300 指数收于 4496.76，上涨 2.71%。中证 500 指数收于 7043.94，上涨 3.24 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 19.186 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.649 billion yuan, up 59.5% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin improved to 19.6%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the expansion and optimization of the product mix [7] - The company achieved significant sales growth, with electric scooter and bicycle sales reaching 8.7935 million units, a 37.8% increase year-on-year, supported by continuous product development and an optimized distribution network [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 3.057 billion, 3.535 billion, and 3.844 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12.76, 11.03, and 10.15 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 34.763 billion yuan in 2023, 28.236 billion yuan in 2024, 36.865 billion yuan in 2025, 43.694 billion yuan in 2026, and 48.321 billion yuan in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 11.92% in 2023, -18.77% in 2024, and 30.56% in 2025 [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.640 billion yuan in 2023, 1.272 billion yuan in 2024, 3.057 billion yuan in 2025, 3.535 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.844 billion yuan in 2027, with a net profit growth rate of 22.17% in 2023, -51.81% in 2024, and 140.25% in 2025 [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.89 yuan in 2023, 0.42 yuan in 2024, 0.98 yuan in 2025, 1.14 yuan in 2026, and 1.23 yuan in 2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.567 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 67.6%. The adjusted net loss was 1.33 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 804 million yuan in the same period last year [7] - Revenue from products and solutions increased by 3.5 times year-on-year to 778 million yuan, while software and licensing services revenue grew by 6.9% to 738 million yuan. The delivery volume of products reached nearly 2 million sets, a year-on-year increase of approximately 100% [7] - The company has achieved a record number of model approvals, with nearly 400 models approved, including over 100 high-end products with advanced driving assistance features. The average selling price of automotive products and solutions reached 1.7 times that of the same period last year [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.542 billion yuan, 5.495 billion yuan, and 7.402 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with projected net profits of -1.946 billion yuan, -744 million yuan, and 782 million yuan [7] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue forecast for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is 1,552 million yuan, 2,384 million yuan, 3,542 million yuan, 5,495 million yuan, and 7,402 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 71.32%, 53.62%, 48.62%, 55.14%, and 34.68% [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the years 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are -2.50 yuan, 0.51 yuan, -0.14 yuan, -0.05 yuan, and 0.06 yuan respectively [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 27.32%, 19.70%, -19.52%, -8.06%, and 7.81% for the years 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [6]

尚界品牌未来可期，海外持续开拓市场 上汽集团(600104) 证券研究报告 乘用车 / 公司点评 / 2025.09.02 | 基本数据 | 2025-09-02 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 18.95 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 114.95 | | 每股净资产(元) | 25.51 | | 总股本(亿股) | 114.95 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -5% 11% 26% 42% 57% 73% 上汽集团 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 邢重阳 SAC 证书编号：S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号：S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《全面深化改革，发力海外市场》 2025-04-30 2. 《新能源车销量稳步攀升，海外销量稳健 增长》 2024-10-12 3. 《强化技术 赋能， 发力 海外市场》 2024-09-10 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | ...

业绩稳健增长，借助重汽国际持续开拓海外市场 中国重汽(000951) 证券研究报告 商用车 / 公司点评 / 2025.09.02 投资评级:增持(维持) | 基本数据 | 2025-09-02 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 17.88 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 11.75 | | 每股净资产(元) | 13.22 | | 总股本(亿股) | 11.75 | 最近 12 月市场表现 核心观点 | 盈利预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 42,070 | 44,929 | 52,729 | 57,784 | 63,654 | | 收入增长率(%) | 46.0 | 6.8 | 17.4 | 9.6 | 10.2 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 1,080 | 1,480 | 1,725 | 1,987 | 2,177 | | 净利润增长率 ...