Group 1: Automotive Industry - The core viewpoint indicates that the retail market for narrow passenger cars in May is estimated to be around 1.85 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5% and a month-on-month increase of 5.4%. Among these, the retail sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 980,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 22.5% with a penetration rate of approximately 52.9% [2] - The overall discount rate in the automotive market in mid-May is about 24.8%. Despite a decline in year-on-year growth rates for both overall passenger car retail and new energy vehicle retail compared to April, the month-on-month performance indicates strong domestic automotive consumption, suggesting that annual sales may exceed expectations [2] Group 2: Hospitality Industry - The report on Shoulu Hotel's Q1 2025 results shows that the company achieved operating revenue of 1.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 140 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 110 million yuan, up 12.0% year-on-year [5] - The company accelerated its store expansion, opening 300 new hotels in Q1, which is a year-on-year increase of 46.3%, achieving 20% of its annual target of 1,500 new openings. Among these, 192 new standard management hotels and 90 new mid-to-high-end hotels were opened [5] - The franchise model has deepened, with the proportion of franchised stores increasing to 91.6%, and 99% of new openings being franchise-based, highlighting a further emphasis on asset-light operations. By the end of 2024, the total number of members reached 197 million, a year-on-year increase of 30.8%, indicating a strengthening of repurchase rates and brand loyalty [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expected outperformance against the benchmark index [29]. Core Insights - Wolfspeed, a leading global supplier of SiC substrates, is reportedly preparing to file for bankruptcy, which has led to a significant drop in its stock price by over 50% [3][4]. - In contrast, Tianyue Advanced, a domestic SiC substrate company, is projected to achieve approximately $240 million in revenue for 2024, representing a 41% year-on-year growth, and has turned a profit for the first time through its main business [8][9]. - The report highlights that domestic companies have gained a significant cost advantage over Wolfspeed, with Tianyue Advanced's gross margin improving from -5.8% to 24% from 2022 to 2025, while Wolfspeed's gross margin has declined from 34.1% to -17.1% during the same period [9][18]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Wolfspeed's Financial Struggles - Wolfspeed's revenue for the first three quarters of fiscal 2025 was $560 million, down approximately 8% year-on-year, with a net loss of about $950 million, marking a 37.7% increase in losses compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The company's total assets were reported at $7.57 billion, with a net asset value of only $210 million, indicating a cumulative loss of approximately $3.87 billion [5][6]. Section 2: Domestic Competitors' Performance - Tianyue Advanced's revenue for 2024 is expected to be around $240 million, with a net profit of 179 million RMB, marking a significant improvement in profitability [8]. - The report emphasizes that domestic companies have made substantial advancements in technology, with several firms showcasing 12-inch SiC substrates in 2024, indicating that they have caught up with international competitors [14][17]. Section 3: Market Dynamics and Price Competition - The global sales scale of the N-type/conductive SiC substrate industry is projected to be $1.04 billion in 2024, a decrease of about 9% year-on-year, with Wolfspeed holding a market share of approximately 33.7% [18][19]. - If Wolfspeed files for bankruptcy, it is expected to alleviate the current price competition in the SiC substrate market, benefiting domestic manufacturers significantly [18]. Section 4: Long-term Demand Outlook - The report forecasts a sustained long-term growth in demand for SiC chips, primarily driven by the electric vehicle sector, which accounts for about 70% of the downstream market, and the renewable energy sector, which exceeds 10% [23][25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expected outperformance against the benchmark index [29]. Core Insights - Wolfspeed, a leading global supplier of SiC substrates, is reportedly preparing to file for bankruptcy, which has led to a significant drop in its stock price by over 50% [3][4]. - In contrast, Tianyue Advanced, a domestic SiC substrate company, is projected to achieve approximately $240 million in revenue for 2024, representing a 41% year-on-year growth, and has reported a net profit of 179 million RMB, marking its first annual profit from core operations [8][9]. - The report highlights that domestic companies have gained a significant cost advantage over Wolfspeed, with Tianyue Advanced's gross margin improving from -5.8% to 24% from 2022 to 2025, while Wolfspeed's gross margin has declined from 34.1% to -17.1% during the same period [9][19]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Wolfspeed's Financial Struggles - Wolfspeed's revenue for the first three quarters of fiscal 2025 was $560 million, down approximately 8% year-on-year, with a net loss of about $950 million, marking a 37.7% increase in losses compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The company's total assets were reported at $7.57 billion, with net assets dwindling to approximately $210 million and cumulative losses reaching about $3.87 billion [5][6]. Section 2: Domestic Competitors' Advancements - Domestic companies have made significant strides in SiC substrate production, with Tianyue Advanced achieving mass production of 8-inch substrates and planning to launch 12-inch substrates in 2024 [14][17]. - Other domestic firms, such as ShuoKe Crystal and TianKe HeDa, are also showcasing advancements in 12-inch SiC substrates, indicating that domestic players are catching up with international competitors [14][17]. Section 3: Market Dynamics and Price Competition - The global market for N-type/conductive SiC substrates is projected to reach $1.04 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of about 9%. Wolfspeed holds a market share of approximately 33.7%, while TianKe HeDa and Tianyue Advanced hold shares of 17.4% and 17.1%, respectively [18][19]. - If Wolfspeed files for bankruptcy, it is expected to alleviate current price competition pressures in the SiC substrate market, benefiting domestic manufacturers significantly [18][19]. Section 4: Long-term Demand Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding the long-term growth of SiC chip demand, primarily driven by the electric vehicle sector, which accounts for about 70% of the demand, and the renewable energy sector, which exceeds 10% [23][25].

Macroeconomic Group - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has surpassed 4.5% again as of May 21, indicating rising interest rates [3] - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20-year bonds with a final yield of 5.047%, marking the second time this yield has exceeded 5% [4] - The auction's bid-to-cover ratio was 2.46, the lowest since February, reflecting weaker demand [4] - The rise in Treasury yields has led to a decline in U.S. stock markets, with the S&P 500 dropping over 1.7% and the Dow Jones falling more than 2% [4] Strategy and Advanced Manufacturing Group - Xiaopeng Motors reported Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries of 94,000 units, a 330% year-on-year increase, with a significant portion being the lower-priced MONA MO3 model [8] - The company's Q1 revenue reached 15.81 billion yuan, up 141.5% year-on-year, with expectations for Q2 revenue between 17.5 billion and 18.7 billion yuan, indicating strong sales momentum [8] - Xiaopeng Motors plans to launch several new models in the second half of the year, which are expected to enhance sales and average vehicle prices [8] - The production capacity at the Guangzhou Phase II factory is projected to exceed 700,000 vehicles by the end of 2025, reflecting growth in the domestic new energy vehicle sector [8] Consumer Group - Kweichow Moutai reported Q1 2025 revenue of 481 million yuan, a 10.1% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 1.7% to 94 million yuan [11] - The company's gross margin improved to 60.71%, up 7.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of mid-to-high-end products [11] - Contract liabilities increased by 77.21% year-on-year, indicating strong downstream demand and increased customer prepayments [11]

Macroeconomic Group - In the first four months of 2025, national general public fiscal revenue decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with a recovery of 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Central revenue improved by 1.9 percentage points to -3.8%, while local revenue remained flat at 2.2% [3] - General public fiscal expenditure increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with a 0.4 percentage point recovery from the first quarter. Central expenditure rose by 0.1 percentage points to 9.0%, while local expenditure decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% [3] - Government fund revenue in the first four months fell by 6.7% year-on-year, but showed a recovery of 4.3 percentage points compared to the first quarter. The revenue from local state-owned land use rights decreased by 11.4% year-on-year, with a recovery of 4.5 percentage points [3] Strategy and Advanced Manufacturing Group - Wolfspeed, a semiconductor manufacturer, reported plans to file for bankruptcy, leading to a 50% drop in its stock price. The global silicon carbide (SiC) substrate market saw a 9% year-on-year decline in 2024, with revenues falling to $1.04 billion [6] - Wolfspeed's revenue for the nine months ending March 2025 was $560 million, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 8%, with a net loss of $940 million, which has increased by about 50% since 2022. In contrast, Chinese manufacturer Tianyue Advanced reported 2024 revenues of approximately $240 million, a 41% year-on-year increase, achieving a net profit of 179 million RMB [6] - The domestic SiC industry is gaining a competitive edge in cost and technology, with 8-inch production already online and 12-inch technology reaching usability. If Wolfspeed goes bankrupt, it could free up about 34% of the market share, benefiting domestic price competition and market share growth [6] Consumption Group - OnRunning achieved revenues of 730 million Swiss francs in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 43%. Adjusted EBITDA reached 129 million Swiss francs, up 54.8%, while net profit decreased by 38% to 56.7 million Swiss francs [9][10] - Direct sales channel revenue was 280 million Swiss francs, a 45.3% increase, while wholesale channel revenue was 450 million Swiss francs, up 41.5%. The Asia-Pacific region saw a significant revenue increase of 130.1% to 121 million Swiss francs, with notable contributions from China and Japan [10] - The brand plans to expand its store count in China from 24 to over 100 by 2026, indicating a strategic focus on the Chinese market. The footwear category remains the core growth driver, with Q1 revenue of 680 million Swiss francs, a 40.5% increase, accounting for 93.7% of total revenue [10][11]

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 5 月 20 日 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：郭强 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 5 月 19 日 10 点国家统计局公布 4 月中国宏观经济数据。 评论： 4 月工业增加值同比实际增长 6.1%，高于 WIND 预期 5.2%，较 3 月回落 1.6 个百分 点，但 1-4 月累计同比为 6.45，仍较去年全年高 0.6 个百分点；4 月社会消费品零 售总额同比名义增长 5.1%，低于 WIND 预期 5.5%，较 3 月回升落 0.8 个百分点，但 1-4 月累计同比为 4.7%，较去年全年高 1.2 个百分点；1-4 月固定资产投资累计同 比增速为 4.0%，低于 WIND 预期 4.3%，较 1-3 月回落 0.2 个百分点，但较去年高 1.0 个百分点。 其中，1-4 月制造业累计同比增速为 8.8%，较 1-3 月回落 0.3 个百分点，但较去年 低 0.4 个百分点；不含电力的基建投资累计同比增速为 5.8 ...

Group 1: Electric Heavy-Duty Trucks - The core viewpoint indicates that the penetration rate of electric heavy-duty trucks is expected to exceed 50% in the next three years, driven by advantages in economy, comfort, and sustainability, particularly with standardized battery swap modules [2] - In April 2025, domestic sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks reached 15,800 units, a month-on-month increase of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 245%. Among these, new energy tractors sold 11,600 units, with a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year increase of 364% [2] - The new energy heavy-duty truck industry penetration rate is projected to rise rapidly to around 20% starting from 2023, indicating a positive outlook for the industry's continued growth [2] Group 2: Telecommunications and Information Society - On the World Telecommunications and Information Society Day in 2025, Shanghai Mobile launched the "Ten Thousand Gigabit Park Computing Network Upgrade Action," initiating a pilot construction of a "Ten Thousand Gigabit Optical Network" [3] - Domestic operators are expected to significantly enhance fiber network performance to address the insufficient computing power of single cards, which will positively impact the market for domestic optical network equipment suppliers [3] - The establishment of the "AI Cooperation Alliance" by Shanghai Mobile, in collaboration with various tech companies, signifies a strategic move towards improving computing resources and capabilities in the region [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a favorable outlook for the industry fundamentals, with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [39]. Core Insights - The carbon fiber industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, with significant growth projected for 2024 and 2025, driven by sectors such as wind energy, military, and new technologies in electric vehicles [5][34]. - The price of carbon fiber has shown signs of recovery, with notable increases in various grades, suggesting that prices have likely bottomed out [6][9]. - The global demand for carbon fiber in 2023 was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 14.8% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth since 1995. However, demand is expected to rebound to 156,000 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.7% [13][15]. Summary by Sections Price Recovery - Carbon fiber prices have been steadily increasing since the end of 2023, with a notable 5% rise in the price of wet 3K carbon fiber, now priced at 200-220 RMB per kilogram. The T300 12K carbon fiber price has rebounded to 95 RMB per kilogram, a 35.7% increase from the end of 2023 [5][6]. Demand Forecast - The global carbon fiber demand is projected to reach 156,000 tons in 2024, with a 120% increase in demand from the wind energy sector and a 51.6% increase from the sports and leisure market. In China, demand is expected to grow by 21.7% to 84,000 tons [13][15][16]. Supply and Capacity - China's operational carbon fiber capacity is estimated at 150,000 tons in 2024, with an 8.5% year-on-year increase. Despite a low utilization rate of 45%, the expansion phase of carbon fiber production appears to be concluding, with a concentration of capacity among the top five producers reaching 73% [23][27]. Traditional and Emerging Applications - Wind energy remains the largest application for carbon fiber, accounting for over 28% of usage. The demand in traditional sectors is expected to grow rapidly, supported by a significant increase in wind power project tenders and military orders [30][34].

Group 1: Urban Renewal Policy Impact - The recent policy issued by the central government aims to promote urban renewal, focusing on the renovation of existing buildings and the upgrade of urban infrastructure, which is expected to significantly boost traditional industries such as building materials and construction machinery [3] - The policy outlines funding sources, including increased central budget investments and special bonds for local governments to support eligible urban renewal projects, indicating a substantial push for urban development [3] Group 2: JD Group Financial Performance - JD Group reported Q1 2025 revenue of 301.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, surpassing market expectations of 11%-12% [6] - Operating profit reached 10.53 billion yuan, up 36.4% year-on-year, with non-GAAP operating profit at 11.66 billion yuan, reflecting a 31.5% increase, driven by a 0.6 percentage point rise in gross margin to 15.89% [6] - JD Retail's revenue was 263.845 billion yuan, growing 16.3% year-on-year, while JD Logistics and new businesses also showed positive growth, indicating strong performance across various segments [6] Group 3: JD's New Business Initiatives - JD's new food delivery service launched on March 1, 2025, is in its early stages, with daily order volume approaching 20 million, although it has not yet significantly impacted financial results [7] - The company is focusing on enhancing user and merchant experiences in the food delivery sector, which may lead to short-term profit pressures but is expected to drive platform traffic and user acquisition [7] - Future financial reports will be crucial to monitor the growth of order volume, changes in expense ratios, and the sustainability of business synergies [7]

Macroeconomic Group - In April, M2 growth was 8% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 7.5% and the previous month's 7% [2] - The total social financing (TSF) year-on-year growth was 8.7%, slightly below the expected 8.8% and previous month's 8.4% [2] - The incremental TSF in April was 1.16 trillion yuan, lower than the expected 1.26 trillion yuan and significantly down from 5.89 trillion yuan in the previous month [2] Strategy and Advanced Manufacturing Group - Jilin Chemical Fiber announced a price increase of 10,000 yuan per ton for its wet-process carbon fiber products due to rising demand from low-altitude economy and drones [5] - The current market price for carbon fiber is around 200-220 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 5% increase, the largest since previous price adjustments [5] - The carbon fiber industry is expected to improve as wind power installations grow and military orders resume, indicating a recovery from the worst phase [5] Consumer Group - Marubi Bio achieved a revenue of 2.97 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33.4%, with a net profit of 330 million yuan, up 73.9% [8] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 850 million yuan, a 28% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 130 million yuan, up 28.57% [8] - The eye care product segment saw a revenue of 690 million yuan in 2024, growing 60.8% year-on-year, with Q1 2025 showing an impressive 89.1% growth [9]