Manufacturing PMI Overview - June manufacturing PMI in China is 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction zone below 50%[3] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points; medium enterprises at 48.6%, up 1.1 percentage points; small enterprises at 47.3%, down 2 percentage points, indicating significant divergence in performance across different enterprise sizes[4] Production and Demand Indicators - The production index for June is 51%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May, indicating continued expansion[4] - New orders index stands at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, while new export orders are at 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points, suggesting stronger domestic demand compared to external demand[4][12] - The index representing supply-demand balance (new orders minus finished goods inventory) is at 2.1%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating weakened effective demand[4][13] Inventory and Price Trends - Finished goods inventory index is at 48.1%, up 1.6 percentage points; raw materials inventory index is at 48%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a slight recovery in inventory levels[5][20] - The factory price index is at 46.2%, up 1.5 percentage points, while major raw material purchase price index is at 48.4%, also up 1.5 percentage points, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector[5][20] Employment and Supplier Dynamics - Employment index for June is at 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating a contraction in employment conditions, particularly among small enterprises[22] - Supplier delivery time index is at 50.2%, up 0.2 percentage points, suggesting slight delays in supplier deliveries[22] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall expectation for production activities in June is at 52.0%, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a pessimistic outlook among manufacturing enterprises[14][16] - The non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, with the construction sector showing a notable increase to 52.8%, while the service sector slightly declined to 50.1%[5][12]

Macro Economic Group - In the first five months of the year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 27,204.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, which is a decline of 2.5 percentage points compared to the first four months [4] - The profit of the manufacturing industry in the first five months increased by 5.4% year-on-year, but this is a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the first four months; in May, the profit decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, a drop of 14.7 percentage points from April [4] - The profit margin for operating income in the first five months was 5.0%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the first four months; the inventory of finished products at the end of May increased by 3.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from April [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - According to recent research updates from Huahong Company, the second quarter saw a concentrated negotiation on foundry prices with downstream customers, with a target of increasing the average sales price by over 10% for the year [7] - Domestic copper-clad laminate companies have seen a cumulative price increase of about 20% since the beginning of the year, with expectations for the total increase this year potentially reaching 40%-50% due to strong downstream demand [7] - The demand for AI chips has rebounded, benefiting domestic high-end HDI PCB, copper-clad laminate, and optical communication companies, indicating an optimistic outlook for the domestic PCB industry chain [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - The Xiaomi YU7 model achieved record sales, with over 200,000 units reserved within three minutes and nearly 290,000 units in one hour, setting a new sales record in China's automotive history [9] - The strong performance of YU7 is attributed to its powerful product features, competitive pricing compared to Tesla's Model Y, and a favorable market environment due to limited supply [9][10] - The introduction of YU7 is expected to reshape the SUV market competition, set new benchmarks for range, and accelerate price restructuring among competitors [10] Consumer Group - From January to May 2025, Yiwu's exports continued to show high growth, with a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, particularly strong in trade with Africa, Latin America, and ASEAN [12] - The market's enthusiasm for investment is reflected in the high demand for commercial spaces in the jewelry industry, with significant interest in the global trade center project in Yiwu, which is nearing completion [12] - The upcoming opening of the six districts in Yiwu is expected to boost rental prices and attract new businesses in emerging sectors [12]

Industry Overview - The report highlights the successful pre-sale of Xiaomi's YU7, which achieved over 200,000 orders in just three minutes, indicating strong market interest. The YU7 is priced lower than Tesla's Model Y, making it a competitive option in the electric vehicle market [1] - The report notes that the penetration rate of new energy dump trucks is significantly lower than that of overall new energy vehicles, suggesting substantial growth potential in this segment [5] - The film industry faced challenges in 2024 due to a lack of quality content, leading to a 43% decline in summer box office revenue. However, the 2025 summer box office has shown signs of recovery, with a strong start and several highly anticipated films scheduled for release [7] Electric Vehicle Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a new batch of vehicle production announcements, showing a 65% increase in new energy dump truck models compared to the previous batch. This reflects an accelerated transition towards electrification in the industry [5] - The report indicates that the majority of new models are pure electric, with a focus on larger battery capacities and high-power motors to address range anxiety and improve performance in complex working conditions [5] - Key players in the electric vehicle market include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Foton Daimler, and SANY Group, each adopting different competitive strategies [5] Film Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the significant drop in box office performance in 2024, with only 116.4 billion yuan generated during the summer season, a 43% year-on-year decline. This highlights the industry's need for high-quality content to attract audiences [7] - The 2025 summer box office has already surpassed 1 billion yuan, indicating a potential recovery, with several films generating significant interest and high anticipation among viewers [7]

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - Changchuan Technology, primarily engaged in semiconductor testing machines, announced a profit forecast for the first half of 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 360-420 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 67.5% to 95.5% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 290 to 350 million yuan, an increase of 39.1% to 67.9% compared to the same period last year [1] - The significant growth in performance is attributed to the rapid growth of the integrated circuit industry and strong customer demand, along with the recognition of high-end testing equipment products [1] Group 2: Automotive Industry - The new energy vehicle sector is facing a crisis, with companies like Neta Auto filing for bankruptcy and joint ventures being dissolved, indicating an intensifying industry reshuffle [5] - The industry is shifting from a cash-burning expansion model to a profitability survival model, with many new players experiencing severe financial losses [5] - Consumers are increasingly favoring larger, more stable automakers, leading to a concentration of market share among established companies [5] Group 3: Gaming Industry - In June 2025, the National Press and Publication Administration approved 147 domestic game licenses, the highest monthly figure since April 2021, marking an increase of 11 licenses from the previous month and 43 licenses year-on-year [7] - The total number of domestic game licenses issued in the first half of 2025 reached 757, a significant increase of 129 licenses compared to the same period last year [7] - The surge in domestic game licenses reflects a positive trend in the domestic gaming industry, with many game developers expected to accelerate their product launches and promotional plans [7]

Industry Overview - The report highlights the strong performance of the IoT chip industry, particularly for TaiLing Microelectronics, which anticipates a revenue of 503 million RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a 37% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 99 million RMB, up 267% [1] - Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Materials expects a revenue of 2.5 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a 32.9% increase, driven by the release of wind power project capacities and improved equipment utilization rates [2] - The automotive parts sector shows mixed results, with Sanhua Intelligent Controls projecting a revenue increase of 10%-30%, while Ningbo Huaxiang anticipates a net loss due to the impact of European business divestiture [3] Advanced Manufacturing - The solid-state battery sector is gaining traction, with lithium-rich manganese-based materials identified as a key opportunity, offering high energy density, low cost, and enhanced safety [6] - Xiangtan Electrochemical's battery materials business is expected to dominate its revenue, with a projected demand for electrolytic manganese dioxide reaching 1.5 million tons by 2030, a threefold increase from 2024 [7] Consumer Market - The pet food market saw significant growth during the 2025 "618" shopping festival, with total online sales reaching 7.5 billion RMB, a 36% increase year-on-year, indicating a shift towards domestic brands and premium products [9] - A new policy from the central bank aims to boost consumption by providing 500 billion RMB in loans for service sectors, which is expected to enhance infrastructure and support long-term growth in consumer spending [10]

Group 1: Nuclear Power Industry - The state of New York plans to construct a large nuclear power facility, marking the first new large nuclear plant in the U.S. in 15 years, with a directive to add at least 1GW of new nuclear power to aging reactors [1] - The restart of nuclear power construction in the U.S. is expected to benefit Chinese companies like China National Nuclear Corporation and Dongfang Electric, as many large castings for global nuclear plants are imported from China [1] - The revival of nuclear power is anticipated to drive up uranium prices, benefiting mining companies such as CGN Mining and China National Nuclear International [1] Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing Industry - In May, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 92.92GW, a year-on-year increase of 388.02%, with cumulative installed capacity surpassing 1TW [5] - The surge in installation is attributed to new policies and a rush to install before regulatory deadlines, but a decline in installation is expected in the second half of the year as policy incentives fade, potentially leading to a price drop for components [5] - The industry may see increased consolidation as many small and heavily indebted companies exit the market due to price wars, while energy storage solutions are viewed as a key factor for project economics, benefiting companies in the storage battery and inverter sectors [5] Group 3: Consumer Industry - The white liquor sector is experiencing adjustments due to policies aimed at reducing waste in government spending, with expectations that the ban on extravagant dining will impact demand [7] - Recent commentary clarifies that not all dining is banned, but the market for premium liquor like Moutai continues to see declining prices, indicating a lack of recovery in downstream purchasing intentions [7] - The overall demand for white liquor remains significantly influenced by macroeconomic conditions, and substantial improvement in demand is expected to take time [7]

Macroeconomic Group - National general public fiscal revenue from January to May decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with central revenue improving by 0.8 percentage points to -3.0% and local revenue declining by 0.3 percentage points to 1.9% [3] - General public fiscal expenditure increased by 4.2% year-on-year, with central expenditure rising by 0.4 percentage points to 9.4% and local expenditure decreasing by 0.5 percentage points to 3.4% [3] - Government fund revenue from January to May fell by 6.9% year-on-year, with local land use rights revenue down by 11.9% [3] - Tax revenue for January to May showed a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, with securities stamp duty revenue increasing by 52.4% [4] - Non-tax revenue decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, indicating a reduction in fines and an improvement in the business environment [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - The Democratic Republic of the Congo extended its temporary ban on cobalt exports for three more months due to high inventory levels, with cobalt prices rebounding to 240,000 yuan/ton, a 5% increase year-on-year [7] - The U.S. conducted direct strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with minimal risk of large-scale conflict, potentially impacting oil prices positively for domestic coal chemical industries [7] Consumer Group - The total e-commerce sales during the 618 shopping festival reached 855.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, with a longer promotional period [9] - The beauty sector saw a total GMV of 65.909 billion yuan across four major platforms, with international high-end brands recovering significantly [9] - The overall growth of the cosmetics industry from January to May was 2-3%, with online growth significantly outpacing offline sales [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a favorable outlook for the industry with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [30]. Core Insights - The storage market has experienced a significant price increase since May, driven by supply-side concentration and recovering downstream demand. Major players like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron collectively hold about 95% market share, which enhances their pricing power [3][8]. - The price of DDR4 16GB has risen over 100% from its February low, while DDR5 16GB has increased by over 25%, reaching new highs for 2024 [3][4]. - The recovery in demand for storage is supported by the resurgence in applications such as mobile phones, PCs, servers, and automotive sectors, with notable increases in memory usage per device [12][17]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - Starting from March to April, storage manufacturers like Scandisk initiated price hikes, followed by significant price increases from Samsung and SK Hynix in May. Samsung raised DDR4 prices by approximately 20% and DDR5 by about 5%, while SK Hynix increased DRAM prices by 12% [3][4]. - As of late May, the storage chip market has seen accelerated price increases, with DDR4 and DDR5 prices reaching new highs compared to earlier in the year [4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The storage price increase is primarily driven by a highly concentrated supply market and recovering demand from key applications. The production of computers in China is expected to grow by over 10% in 2024, with a strong growth rate continuing in early 2025 [12][16]. - Despite a negative growth in mobile phone production from January to May, the sales value has increased by over 25%, indicating a potential recovery in production demand in the latter half of the year [16][20]. Application Trends - There is a notable increase in single-device storage usage across major applications in 2025. For instance, the memory in smartphones has increased from 8-12GB to 12-16GB, while server memory has risen from 80GB to 384GB [17][21]. - In the automotive sector, new models are showing significantly higher memory usage, with examples like the Xiaopeng G7 series featuring 216GB of memory, which is 8-10 times higher than typical vehicles in the same price range [21][22]. Company Performance Outlook - A-share listed storage companies, primarily engaged in module production and distribution, are expected to see significant performance improvements due to the rising storage prices. The price increases in the current cycle are anticipated to exceed those seen in early 2024, leading to more pronounced improvements in company performance [24][26].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The semiconductor packaging industry is experiencing growth, with Yongxi Electronics forecasting a revenue of 1.9 billion to 2.1 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.6% to 28.9% [2] - The increase in revenue is attributed to a recovery in the global consumer market, a rebound in the integrated circuit industry, and a rise in AI application penetration [2] - The automotive industry is seeing a significant disparity in profit margins, with leading companies like BYD achieving a gross profit of 34.19 billion yuan, while some smaller firms are struggling with negative margins [6] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Wolfspeed, a leader in silicon carbide, is facing severe financial difficulties, with a projected net loss of $282 million for the first fiscal quarter of 2025 and plans to close its 150mm silicon carbide factory [3] - The financial struggles of Wolfspeed may alleviate the price war in the domestic silicon carbide market if the company undergoes bankruptcy restructuring [3] - In the toy industry, Pop Mart's online sales reached approximately 1 billion yuan from January to May 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 236%, indicating strong market demand for collectible toys [8][9]

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 6 月 19 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 分析师：郭强 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 6 月 19 日（星期四）2 点，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）2025 年第四次议息会 议。 点评： 6 月 19 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布了 2025 年的第四份利率决议。其中显示，有投 票权的 12 位 FOMC 委员全票通过，美联储决定将联邦基金利率区间维持在 4.25% —4.50%不变，这是美联储自去年 9 月开启降息周期以来再次暂停降息，符合市 场预期。 本次声明与 5 月相比，有两点不同：一是删掉了有关"经济前景的不确定性增加" 的说法，改成"不确定性已减弱但仍高"；二删掉了有关"失业和通胀均上升的 风险增加"的说法，重申"净出口波动影响数据但经济继续稳健扩张。" 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 5 页 晨会纪要 在点阵图中，以每次降息 25 个基点计算，与今年 3 月相比，19 位 FOMC 委 ...