Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the price increases of lithium carbonate and photoinitiators, suggesting a potential recovery in the chemical industry driven by anti-involution trends [1] - The basic chemical sector has shown strong relative performance, with a 39.4% increase over the past 12 months compared to the 25.7% increase in the CSI 300 index [3] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The report notes a decline in the Guohai Chemical Prosperity Index to 92.75 as of August 14, 2025, down 0.11 from August 7, 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - Key opportunities identified include: 1. Low-cost expansion in companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Satellite Chemical, and others [5] 2. Improvement in industry prosperity for chromium salts, phosphate rock, and various chemical sectors [6] 3. Focus on new materials with high growth potential and low domestic substitution rates [7] 4. High dividend opportunities in state-owned enterprises like China Petroleum and Sinopec [8] Price Analysis of Key Products - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate price increased by 9.93% to 83,000 CNY/ton [10] - Photoinitiator (TPO) price rose by 5.56% to 95 CNY/kg [10] - Polyester filament price increased by 2.16% to 7,100 CNY/ton [10] Company Performance Tracking - Notable companies such as Zhenhua Co. reported a 10.17% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025 [13] - Wanhua Chemical's pure MDI price was reported at 17,900 CNY/ton, with a slight increase [11] Market Observations - The report indicates a potential inventory replenishment cycle in the chemical sector due to anticipated fiscal policy support in China and the US [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, suggesting a focus on high-quality stocks with stable growth and reasonable valuations, particularly in the North Exchange sector for 2025 [6][12]. Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 Index has shown significant growth, with a 116.41% increase over the past year, indicating strong market performance compared to other indices [2][12]. - The report highlights the performance of various sectors, with the computer, basic chemicals, electronics, automotive, and social services sectors leading in growth, while beauty care, defense, construction, agriculture, and textiles lagged behind [17][20]. - New listings and upcoming IPOs are noted, including the recent listing of Zhigao Machinery, which specializes in rock drilling equipment and air compressors, indicating ongoing market activity [25][31]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of August 15, 2025, the North Exchange comprises 271 A-share stocks with an average market capitalization of 3.183 billion [12]. - The North Exchange 50 Index increased by 2.40% during the week of August 11-15, 2025, closing at 1476.33 points, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices [12][16]. Stock and Sector Performance - During the same week, 99 stocks rose, while 170 fell, resulting in a 36.53% increase in the number of rising stocks, a decrease of 15.69 percentage points from the previous week [16]. - The top five performing sectors were computer (21.19%), basic chemicals (8.65%), electronics (6.72%), automotive (3.45%), and social services (2.49%) [17][20]. New Stock Updates - Zhigao Machinery was listed on August 14, 2025, focusing on energy-efficient and environmentally friendly drilling and air compressor solutions, with a diverse product range [25][31]. - Upcoming IPOs include the subscription of Nengzhiguang and the listing of Hongyuan Shares, indicating continued interest in the North Exchange [31]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies highlighted include Tongli Co., Wuxin Tunnel Equipment, and Kaide Quartz, with earnings per share (EPS) forecasts showing growth from 2024 to 2026 [7]. - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for Tongli Co. and Wuxin Tunnel Equipment, while recommending "Hold" for Kaide Quartz and Hualing Co. [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in overseas revenue, with a notable increase in profit margins due to cost improvements [5] - The company achieved a revenue of 7.9 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 800 million yuan, up 15.7% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with projected revenues of 16.68 billion yuan, 18.28 billion yuan, and 19.97 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.596 billion yuan, 1.826 billion yuan, and 2.074 billion yuan [5][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and a net profit of 430 million yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [4] - The company's gross margin reached 26.1% in H1 2025, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to cost improvements [5] - The operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 262 million yuan, showing a significant increase compared to the previous year [5] Revenue Breakdown - The company's yeast product revenue grew by 12.4% year-on-year, outpacing overall revenue growth [5] - In Q2 2025, revenue from domestic and international markets was 2.31 billion yuan and 1.78 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.3% and 22.3% [5] Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve an EPS of 1.84 yuan, 2.10 yuan, and 2.39 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 18, and 16 [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum processing sector is witnessing a recovery in operating rates, with expectations for inventory to reach a turning point. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is anticipated to boost demand [11]. - The macroeconomic environment is leaning towards favorable conditions, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S. [6]. - The report highlights that the current low inventory levels and reduced aluminum ingot supply provide support for aluminum prices [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of August 15, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,603.0 per ton, down $12.0 from the previous week but up $276.0 year-on-year [24]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,770.0 yuan per ton, up 85.0 yuan week-on-week and up 1,755.0 yuan year-on-year [24]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 20,680.0 yuan per ton, up 50.0 yuan week-on-week and up 1,750.0 yuan year-on-year [24]. 2. Production - In July 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.721 million tons, an increase of 112,000 tons month-on-month and 168,000 tons year-on-year [55]. - The production of alumina in July 2025 was 7.650 million tons, up 392,000 tons month-on-month and 808,000 tons year-on-year [55]. 3. Inventory - As of August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons week-on-week [7]. - The inventory of aluminum rods was 138,500 tons, down 4,000 tons week-on-week, indicating a continuous decline due to reduced production by manufacturers [7]. 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the aluminum sector include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yunnan Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][12]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the integration of the company's "coal-electricity-chemical-transport" assets to strengthen industrial synergy and enhance shareholder returns through mid-term dividends [2][5][6]. - The acquisition of 13 assets from the controlling shareholder, including 100% stakes in various energy companies, is expected to significantly increase the company's resource reserves and core business capacity, optimizing the entire industrial chain [5][8]. - The company plans to distribute mid-term dividends amounting to at least 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, reinforcing its commitment to high dividend strategies [6][11]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - Over the past year, the company's stock performance has been -2.9% for 1 month, 3.8% for 3 months, and 0.9% for 12 months, compared to the CSI 300 index which has shown 6.6%, 11.5%, and 22.9% respectively [4]. Acquisition Details - The company announced plans to acquire significant coal and energy assets, which include major coal mines with substantial production capacities, enhancing its resource supply stability and operational efficiency [5][8]. - The total assets of the acquired entities are valued at approximately 258.36 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.01 billion yuan expected for 2024 [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 302.84 billion yuan, 315.26 billion yuan, and 327.99 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 51.40 billion yuan, 53.70 billion yuan, and 56.13 billion yuan [10][11]. - The report anticipates a decline in earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 to 2.59 yuan, with a gradual recovery in subsequent years [10][11]. Dividend Strategy - The mid-term dividend distribution is projected to be around 18.45 billion yuan, reflecting a dividend yield of approximately 2.5% to 2.7% based on the market capitalization as of August 15 [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618.HK) [1][20] Core Views - JD Group's Q2 2025 revenue reached 356.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [5][10] - The company's adjusted net profit significantly surpassed Bloomberg consensus expectations, primarily due to better-than-expected gross margin and operating profit margin in JD Retail, despite losses from new businesses like food delivery [6][10] - The retail segment showed strong growth, with revenue from the 1P electronics category increasing by 23% year-on-year to 179 billion yuan, and the 1P daily necessities category growing by 16% to 103.4 billion yuan [6][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was 356.7 billion yuan (YoY +22%, QoQ +18%), with a gross profit of 56.6 billion yuan (YoY +23%, QoQ +18%) [5][10] - Operating profit was -0.9 billion yuan (YoY -108%, QoQ -108%), and net profit was 6.7 billion yuan (YoY -51%, QoQ -41%) [5][10] - Non-GAAP net profit was 7.4 billion yuan (YoY -49%, QoQ -42%) [5][10] Retail Segment - JD Retail revenue grew by 21% year-on-year to 310.1 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with an operating profit margin of 4.5% [6][9] - The growth was driven by a robust recovery in consumer spending and government subsidy policies [6][9] Logistics Segment - JD Logistics revenue reached 51.6 billion yuan (YoY +17%, QoQ +10%), with a slight decrease in operating profit margin to 3.8% [9] - The integrated supply chain customer revenue grew by 19.9% year-on-year, with over 70,000 external customers [9] New Business Initiatives - New business revenue, including food delivery, reached 13.9 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 14.8 billion yuan [9] - The food delivery segment has shown significant user growth, with daily orders reaching 25 million [9] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 1,323.58 billion yuan, 1,420.01 billion yuan, and 1,512.77 billion yuan respectively [17][18] - The target market capitalization for JD Group in 2026 is set at 544.5 billion yuan, with a target price of 171 yuan per share [17][18]

| | | 年 2025 | | 月 | | 08 | 日 | 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究所： | | | | | | | | [Table_Title] 查超产影响下供给恢复偏慢， | | | 证券分析师： | | 陈晨 | S0350522110007 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | chenc09@ghzq.com.cn | | | | | 联系人 | ： | 张益 | S0350124100016 | | | | | 煤炭基本面旺季强势依旧 | | | | | | | | | zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn | | | | | 联系人 | ： | 徐萌 | S0350125070001 | | | | | | | | | | | | | xum02@ghzq.com.cn | | | ——煤炭开采行业周报 | | 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/08/15 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's online subscription revenue shows steady growth, with effective control over costs and expenses driving a significant increase in adjusted operating profit [2][6] - The company's H1 2025 performance exceeded market expectations, with a notable impact from tax credits on adjusted net profit [6][8] - The company is focusing on enhancing its content offerings and user experience to drive growth in paid subscriptions [10][12] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 6.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.89 billion yuan, up 132.7% year-over-year [5][8] - Adjusted operating profit was 910 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 35.0%, and adjusted net profit was 1.95 billion yuan, up 121.0% year-over-year [8] - The decline in revenue was primarily due to a more cautious operational strategy in online social entertainment services, which saw a 43% year-over-year drop [8] Revenue and Cost Analysis - Online music business revenue for H1 2025 was 2.967 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9% year-over-year, with subscription revenue contributing 2.47 billion yuan, up 15.2% [8][12] - The company maintained a gross margin of 36.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-over-year, and an adjusted operating margin of 23.7%, up 7.2 percentage points year-over-year [8] - Content service costs decreased by 10.5% year-over-year, accounting for 47.1% of revenue, while promotional and advertising expenses dropped by 67.1% [9][12] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.326 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach 2.866 billion yuan [11][12] - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is 3.006 billion yuan, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 18 for 2025, 23 for 2026, and 20 for 2027 [11][12] - The company aims to enhance its content library and user engagement, which is expected to drive long-term growth in paid subscriptions [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (1698.HK) [1][12][13] Core Views - The report highlights that Tencent Music's revenue and profit growth exceeded expectations, driven by an increase in ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) and subscription income [5][6][12] - The company is expected to see continued growth in revenue and profitability, supported by a healthy revenue structure and an increase in paying users [12][13] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, Tencent Music reported revenue of 8.44 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 17.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14.7% [5][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.41 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 43.4% [5][6] - The gross profit margin improved to 44.4%, up 2.4 percentage points year-over-year, due to growth in online music revenue and a decrease in revenue sharing from social entertainment services [6][12] User Metrics and Revenue Streams - Online music service revenue reached 6.85 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 26.4% [7] - The number of paying users increased to 124 million, a year-over-year growth of 6%, with a paying rate of 22.5% [7] - Advertising and other revenue surged to 2.47 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 46.9%, driven by new advertising models and strong growth in artist-related events [7][12] Strategic Initiatives - Tencent Music is enhancing its content ecosystem and interactive community to increase platform value, including hosting major international concerts and introducing interactive community features [8][9] - The company plans to acquire 100% of Ximalaya for $1.26 billion to expand into long audio content, aiming to create a comprehensive entertainment matrix [10][12] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 32.95 billion yuan, 37.48 billion yuan, and 41.06 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 10.98 billion yuan, 10.34 billion yuan, and 11.49 billion yuan [11][12] - The adjusted P/E ratios are forecasted to be 30, 24, and 22 for the respective years [12]

2025 年 8 月 12 日公司发布公告，公司拟以现金方式收购子公司南京万 优商业管理有限公司 49%股权。 投资要点: | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/08/15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 万辰集团 | -1.9% | -0.7% | 621.5% | | 沪深 300 | 4.6% | 7.6% | 25.7% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/08/15 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 154.74 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 22.55-199.90 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 29,031.55 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 25,291.24 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 18,761.51 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | 16,344.34 | | 日均成交额（百万） | | | 324.72 | | 近一月换手（%） | | | 1.55 | | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 刘洁铭 ...