Market Overview - The U.S. stock market saw a collective decline on October 7, with the Dow Jones down 0.2%, Nasdaq down 0.67%, and S&P 500 down 0.38%[8] - Major tech stocks mostly fell, with Tesla dropping over 4% and Google down over 1%[8] - AMD shares rose nearly 4% after announcing a 6 GW computing power agreement with OpenAI, with the first 1 GW deployment planned for the second half of 2026[8] International Indices Performance - The FTSE Singapore Straits Index closed at 4472.26, up 1.14% for the day and 17.82% year-to-date[2] - The German DAX index increased by 0.03% year-to-date, reaching 24385.78[2] - The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.01% and has a year-to-date increase of 20.19%[2] Sector Highlights - Semiconductor stocks faced significant declines, with KLA down over 4% and ASML nearly 4%[8] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks also fell, with Strategy down over 8% and Coinbase down over 2%[8] - Bitcoin mining stocks saw gains due to rising Bitcoin prices, with CleanSpark up over 3% and Hive Digital up over 11%[8] Notable Company Developments - Dell raised its sales and profit growth forecast for the next two years, expecting a 7% to 9% increase by fiscal year 2030[8] - IBM shares rose 1.54% following a partnership with Anthropic for enterprise-level AI software[8] - Trilogy Metals surged over 210% after the U.S. government announced a plan to acquire 10% of the company as part of a $35.6 million investment[8]

国信证券(香港)·资讯日报 港股市场表现 美股市场表现 2025 年 9 月 30 日 资讯日报 海外市场主要股市上日表现 | 指数 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 居居民 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | (%) | 消费 | | | | | | (%) | | 恒生指数 | 26,623 | 1.89 | 1.89 | 32.72 | | 恒生科技 | 6,324 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 41.54 | | 恒生国企 | 9.454 | 1.62 | 1.62 | 29.69 | | 上证指数 | 3.863 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 15.24 | | 目经225 | 45.044 | (0.69) | (0.69) | 12.91 | | 新加坡海峡 | 4,270 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.00 | | 标普500 | 6.661 | 10.26 | 0.26 | 13.25 | | 纳斯达克 | 22,591 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 16.99 | | 道原町 V | 46,316 | 0.15 | ...

Economic Overview - The US second quarter GDP was revised up to an annualized growth rate of 3.8%, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.3%, driven by strong consumer spending and a decline in imports[14] - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 218,000, the lowest level since July, indicating resilience in the labor market[14] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, suggesting persistent inflation pressures[14] Market Reactions - US stock markets experienced a decline in the first three trading days of the week, but improved sentiment on Friday resulted in a mixed performance, with Intel shares rising nearly 20% due to potential investment news[12] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased to 4.18%, reflecting the impact of strong economic data on bond markets[12] Policy Developments - The Trump administration announced new tariffs ranging from 25% to 100% on imports of building materials, furniture, and patented drugs, effective October 1[11] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and proposed new tools to stabilize capital markets[13] Sector Performance - In China, industrial profits for large enterprises increased by 0.9% year-on-year in the first eight months, with August showing a significant turnaround with a 20.4% increase[13] - The A-share and Hong Kong markets showed structural opportunities, particularly in technology and growth sectors, despite overall cautious trading ahead of the National Day holiday[15] Global Market Trends - Global stock indices displayed mixed performance, with European and Japanese markets showing strength while US and Chinese markets faced corrections[9] - Commodity prices generally rose, with natural gas and oil prices rebounding due to geopolitical factors and supply-demand expectations[9] Investment Strategy - A multi-asset FOF portfolio is recommended with a 60% allocation to equities, 30% to fixed income, and 10% to commodities, achieving an annualized return of 41.55%[8] - Investors are advised to focus on 10-year US Treasuries as a stable investment during the current interest rate cycle[47]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for Nvidia (NVDA.O) with a target price based on a favorable fundamental outlook [6]. Core Insights - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang expresses optimism about the continuous growth of global AI capital expenditures, estimating that approximately $5 trillion annually is needed to support AI systems capable of generating $10 trillion in GDP value [2]. - Huang emphasizes that Nvidia's competitive advantage lies in its total cost of ownership (TCO), asserting that even if competitors offer ASIC chips for free, the overall operational costs of their systems cannot match Nvidia's solutions [3]. - The strategic partnership with OpenAI is highlighted, with Nvidia planning to invest up to $100 billion to support OpenAI's growth, which Huang believes positions OpenAI to become the next trillion-dollar company [4]. Summary by Sections AI Capital Expenditure Growth - Huang maintains a positive outlook on AI capital expenditures, indicating that substantial investments are essential for AI infrastructure to meet the projected economic contributions [2]. Nvidia's Competitive Edge - The report discusses how Nvidia's positioning has evolved from a "chip company" to an "AI infrastructure provider," supported by three core pillars: the shift from general computing to accelerated computing, exponential growth in AI inference demand, and superior energy efficiency through hardware-software synergy [3][11]. Strategic Investments and Ecosystem - Nvidia's investments in companies like OpenAI are framed as independent financial decisions aimed at sharing the growth of the AI ecosystem, rather than being tied to chip sales [15]. - The report notes Nvidia's shift towards an open AI infrastructure platform, allowing collaboration with industry partners to enhance performance and design [15].

国信证券(香港)·资讯日报 港股市场表现 美股市场表现 日股市场表现 2025 年 9 月 12 日 | 资讯日报 | | --- | 资讯日报：美国初请失业金人数超预期创近四年新 高 股票市场概览 富时新加坡海峡指数一年表现 JIANG CHAOYI SFC CE No.: BWT372 +852 62345097 jadejiang@guosen.com.hk 注：以上数据均来官方披露、公司资料，国信证券（香港）研究部整理，请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及其项下所有内容。 数据日期：2025 年 9 月 11 日 资料来源：万得，国信证券（香港）财富研 究部整理 海外市场主要股市上日表现 | 指数 | 收盘价 | 单日 涨跌（%） | 周涨跌 （%） | 年初至今 涨跌（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 3875.31 | | 1.65 | 1.65 | 13.73 | | 道琼斯工业指数 46108.00 | | 1.36 | 1.56 | 8.30 | | 日经225 44372.50 | | 1.22 | 3.15 | 11.22 | | 标普50 ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index closed at 5902.69, up 1.27% for the day and 31.15% year-to-date[3] - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6512.61, up 0.30% for the day and 10.25% year-to-date[3] - Oracle's stock surged 36% to a record high, with a market capitalization increase of approximately $250 billion, reaching $922.24 billion[9] Sector Highlights - Major technology stocks in Hong Kong saw significant gains, with JD.com up 3.6% and Baidu up over 2%[9] - Financial stocks also performed well, with Agricultural Bank rising 3.5% and China Construction Bank up 2.84%[9] - Semiconductor stocks were active, with SMIC gaining 3.6%[9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly fell by 0.1% month-over-month in August, marking the first decline in four months, strengthening the case for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[9] - Japan's manufacturing sentiment index rose to 13, the highest in three years, indicating improved economic confidence[14] Investment Trends - Net inflows from mainland investors into Hong Kong stocks amounted to HKD 7.566 billion on September 10[9] - AI infrastructure stocks like CoreWeave rose by 16.88%, reflecting growing investor interest in the sector[9]

Market Performance - US stock indices closed at record highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 45,711.34 (+0.43%), Nasdaq at 21,879.49 (+0.37%), and S&P 500 at 6,512.61 (+0.27%) [2] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index reached a nearly four-year high at 25,938.13 (+1.19%), driven by significant inflows of southbound funds totaling HKD 10.231 billion [10] - Major technology stocks in the US saw gains, with Google up over 2% and Meta, Nvidia, and Amazon rising over 1% [10] Sector Highlights - Gold and precious metals stocks maintained strong performance, with Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold reaching historical highs [10] - Real estate stocks surged, particularly Shimao Group and Country Garden, both increasing over 27% due to policy optimizations in major cities [10] - Bank stocks also performed well, with UnitedHealth Group rising over 8% and Goldman Sachs nearly 3% [10] Economic Indicators - US labor market data showed weakness, reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [10] - Japan's machine tool orders for August increased by 8.1% year-on-year, indicating improved manufacturing demand [13] - The NFIB small business confidence index in the US reached 100.8, the highest since January 2025 [13] Notable Company Developments - Oracle's stock rose 1.32% and surged over 26% in after-hours trading following a strong earnings report, projecting a 77% increase in cloud infrastructure revenue for FY2026 [10] - Nebius, an AI infrastructure company, saw its stock jump nearly 50% after securing a $19.7 billion contract with Microsoft [10] - Apple launched its iPhone 17 series, with the base model starting at $799, while the iPhone 17 Pro starts at $1,099 [14]

行业研究 美股"七巨头"最新季报：AI 投资步入收获期，多项核心业绩超预期 美股"七巨头"最新季报整体超预期 截至 2025 年 6 月（英伟达截至 7 月），美股"七巨头"总营收平均 同比增长 17%，超出市场预期幅度平均达 3 个百分点；净利润表现 更为强劲，平均同比大增 24%，超出市场预期幅度平均达 13 个百分 点。本季度，在这七家公司中，英伟达的总营收与净利润增速均领 跑，总营收同比增长 56%，净利润同比飙升 59%。从超预期幅度 看，Meta 的营收超预期幅度最大，而亚马逊的净利润超预期幅度最 大。特斯拉是其中唯一一家总营收与净利润双双下滑且均不及预期 的公司，总营收同比减少 12%，净利润同比下降 16%。 苹果：FY2025Q3（截至 6 月季度）总营收为 940 亿美元，同比增长 10%，超出市场预期（893 亿美元）约 5%。收入的稳健增长主要得 益于 iPhone 业务的强劲表现（同比大增 14%至 446 亿美元）。Mac 和软件服务业务同样表现优异，分别实现 15%和 13%的两位数增 长。净利润为 234 亿美元，同比增长 9%，超出市场预期（214 亿美 元）10%。 亚马逊 ...

Market Overview - On September 8, the Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 16.705 billion[9] - Major tech stocks surged, with Baidu rising by 9.48% and Alibaba and NetEase both increasing by over 4%[9] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,633.91, reflecting a 0.85% increase year-to-date[3] Sector Performance - The AI hardware sector experienced a pullback, while the previously lagging robotics sector saw a strong rebound, driven by government support for technological innovation[9] - Several paper manufacturers implemented a dual strategy of price hikes and production halts, leading to a strong performance in the paper sector, with Chenming Paper rising by 8%[9] - Gold stocks showed mixed results, with some declining despite a general rise in the sector, as gold prices reached a new high of USD 3,640 per ounce[12] IPO and Market Activity - Dahon, a folding bike manufacturer, is set to list in Hong Kong on September 9, with initial fundraising of approximately HKD 390 million and an oversubscription rate of 6,688 times[9] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 2.12%, reflecting a positive trend in popular Chinese stocks[12] Economic Indicators - China's August exports totaled USD 321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, while imports were USD 219.48 billion, up 1.3%[14] - The trade surplus for August was USD 102.33 billion, exceeding expectations[14] Global Market Trends - The Nikkei 225 index closed at 43,643.81, up 1.45%, with a year-to-date increase of 9.40%[3] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.21%, with a year-to-date increase of 9.96%[3]

国信证券(香港)·宏观周报 宏观周报（2025/9/1-9/5） 降息交易 or 衰退交易？重温资产配置时钟 要点摘要 【上周焦点】 【宏观经济概览】 2025 年 9 月 8 日 宏观周报 主要股市指数近一年表现 主要利率近一年表现 主要商品指数一年表现 主要汇率一年表现 曾伟杰 SFC CE No.: BUH477 +852 2899 8300 javezeng@guosen.com.cn 美国：8 月政府财政赤字，8 月核心 PPI&CPI 中国：8月进出口、金融、官方储备数据，8月PPI&CPI 日本：二季度GDP同比，8月PPI 【观点及配置建议】 国信证券(香港)·宏观周报 曾伟杰, +852 2899 8300，javezeng@guosen.com.cn ⚫ 我们再次提醒：（1）抓住降息周期带来的债券资产确定性机会；（2）经济衰退的 发生不会是渐进式，而是"深V"爆发。目前阶段，在微观上享受流动性充裕并把 握风险资产结构性机会的同时，应重视宏观对冲，持续跟踪并预防经济的尾部风险。 注：以上数据均来官方披露、公司资料，国信证券（香港）研究部整理，请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及其项下所有内容。 国 ...