国信证券(香港)·宏观周报 宏观周报（2025/8/25-8/29） 拥抱资产，重视基本面 要点摘要 【上周焦点】 【宏观经济概览】 2025 年 9 月 1 日 宏观周报 主要股市指数一年表现 主要利率一年表现 主要商品指数一年表现 ⚫ 高频数据观察：美国经济增长动能边际放缓，消费显示韧 性，就业市场继续降温，地产需求边际回升；中美经济意外 指数上升，日欧好转。 ⚫ 本周重点关注：美国：8月PMI、8月就业数据。 【观点及配置建议】 ⚫ 1-7月中国整体经济态势"稳中有进"，政策效果逐步显 现，但基本面仍是结构性非全面性的复苏，需求端结构性分 化明显，生产端动能转换加速，依然存在需求不足的挑战。 未来的增长将更依赖于科技创新、产业升级和内需潜力的持 续释放，更需要政策持续的保驾护航。 ⚫ 享受流动性充裕与风险偏好回升带来的"牛市"，把握结构 性机会，挖掘政策受益且有基本面持续复苏支撑的板块；同 时重视宏观对冲，跟踪并预防经济的尾部风险。 国信证券(香港)·宏观周报 曾伟杰, +852 2899 8300，javezeng@guosen.com.cn 一、全球市场回顾 大类资产表现 主要汇率一年表现 黄金近一 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market saw all three major indices decline, with net selling by southbound funds exceeding HKD 20 billion[9] - Major tech stocks underperformed, with Meituan dropping 12.55%, JD down 5%, Alibaba down 4.69%, and Tencent and Xiaomi also declining[9] - Semiconductor stocks surged, with InnoCare rising over 15% and SMIC increasing nearly 11% to reach a new listing high[9] U.S. Market Performance - On August 28, U.S. markets opened high and closed with all three major indices rising, with the Dow and S&P 500 reaching new closing highs[9] - Nvidia's Q2 revenue grew 56% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, and the company approved an additional USD 60 billion for stock buybacks[9] - Quantum computing stocks led gains, with Quantum Computing up over 8% and Rigetti Computing up over 7%[9] Japanese Market Insights - The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.73%, driven by strong performance in metal and energy stocks[12] - Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in Mitsubishi Corporation to 10.23%, pushing the stock prices of Japan's five major trading companies higher[12] - Foreign investment in Japanese stocks showed signs of slowing, with a net decrease of JPY 496.8 billion in the week ending August 22[12] Key Economic Indicators - U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 23 were 229,000, lower than the expected 230,000[12] - The U.S. Q2 GDP annualized growth rate was revised to 3.3%, above the expected 3.1%[12] - The Chinese government released guidelines to promote high-quality urban development, focusing on city cluster integration and innovation[12]

Market Performance - Hong Kong stocks experienced a decline, with major indices turning from gains to losses in the afternoon session[10] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,201.76, down 1.27% for the day and up 25.75% year-to-date[4] - The S&P 500 index rose 0.24%, reaching a new all-time high, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.30%[10] Sector Highlights - New energy vehicle stocks fell significantly, with declines of 5.6% for Li Auto, 6.7% for NIO, and 8.3% for Xpeng[3] - Biopharmaceutical stocks dropped collectively due to Trump's announcement of tariffs on drugs, with significant losses in innovative drug sectors[10] - AI-related stocks initially showed strength but mostly turned negative in the afternoon, with SenseTime rising nearly 9% to a new high since October 2024[10] Company-Specific Developments - Nvidia's stock fell slightly after a lukewarm quarterly revenue outlook, leading to concerns about a slowdown in AI spending[10] - Kweichow Moutai's stock surged over 7% after reporting a 15.6% year-on-year revenue increase to 25.622 billion yuan for the first half of 2025[10] - Meituan's ADR dropped nearly 10% after reporting an 89% year-on-year decline in adjusted net profit for Q2[10] Investment Trends - Net inflows from southbound funds amounted to 15.371 billion HKD[10] - The semiconductor and AI software sectors showed initial strength but faced selling pressure later in the day[10] Economic Indicators - China's service import and export total reached 3.9 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, marking an 8% year-on-year increase[16] - In July, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China fell by 1.5% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in June[16]

Report Summary Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 26, the market failed to continue the previous day's strong performance, with sentiment turning cautious. The three major Hong Kong stock indices tumbled in the afternoon, while the Hang Seng Tech Index reached a new stage high during the session. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$16.573 billion [9]. - US stocks opened lower and closed higher on August 26, with all three major indices posting small gains. The Nasdaq rose 0.44%, the S&P 500 rose 0.41%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% [9]. - Japanese stocks declined, with the Nikkei 225 Index falling 0.97% and the Topix Index falling 1.08% due to President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook and deteriorating investor sentiment [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Market Overview - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The three major indices tumbled in the afternoon. Technology, semiconductor chip, military, and coal stocks generally declined. Inner - housing stocks' losses widened in the afternoon, and large - financial stocks such as Chinese brokerage and bank stocks also pulled down the market. On the other hand, gold stocks led the non - ferrous metal stocks to strengthen [9]. - **US Stock Market**: The three major indices rose slightly. Large - cap technology stocks mostly rose, and stocks like Lilly, Echostar, and Boeing had significant increases. Most Chinese concept stocks also rose [9]. - **Japanese Stock Market**: The market declined. Nissan Motor dropped sharply, while Rakuten Group led the gainers among Nikkei components. Tokyo Electron's rating was downgraded [13]. Key News - Global Macro - Trump dismissed Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence. Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates multiple times from 2025 to 2026 [13]. - US durable goods orders in July decreased by 2.8% month - on - month, better than expected [13]. - China's National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action" [13]. Industry News - Apple plans to hold a large - scale autumn product launch on September 9, expected to launch the iPhone 17 series [14]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue the second batch of millimeter - wave private network frequency licenses, with more enterprises expected to obtain them this year [14]. - Galaxy Kylin Operating System V11 was officially released, with over 1.6 million deployments [14]. Key Charts - **US Stocks**: The top ten stocks by trading volume included NVIDIA, Tesla, and Microsoft. NVIDIA had a trading volume of $30.5 billion, with a market value of $443.52 billion and a gain of 1.1% [15]. - **Japanese Stocks**: The top ten stocks by trading volume included SoftBank Group and Ryohin Keikaku Co., Ltd. SoftBank Group had a trading volume of $1069 million, with a market value of ¥2.24395 trillion and a decline of 0.9% [15]. - **Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index**: The top ten stocks by trading volume included Alibaba, NIO, and Tencent Music. NIO had a trading volume of $967 million, with a market value of $15 billion and a gain of 10.0% [17].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market saw strong gains on August 25, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 3.14% to close at 5825.09, marking a year-to-date increase of 29.43%[3] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.94% to 25829.91, with a year-to-date gain of 28.88%[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.51% to 3883.56, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 13.98%[3] Key Stock Movements - Major tech stocks led the market rally, with Baidu and NetEase both rising over 6%, and Alibaba increasing by 5.5%[9] - NIO's stock surged over 15% after the company announced the pre-sale of its new ES8 model, with orders exceeding last month's figures[9] - The real estate sector performed strongly, with Vanke Enterprises rising nearly 10% following Shanghai's new property policies[9] Investment Trends - Southbound capital recorded a net outflow of HKD 1.376 billion on the same day[9] - The rare earth sector saw significant gains, with Jinli Permanent Magnet rising over 14% due to positive institutional outlooks on rare earth prices[9] - Biopharmaceutical B shares mostly declined, with Ocular Therapeutix dropping over 15% after being removed from the Hang Seng Composite Index[9] U.S. Market Overview - On August 25, U.S. major indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.77%, S&P 500 down 0.43%, and Nasdaq down 0.22%[9] - Nvidia, Tesla, and Google saw gains of over 1%, while Intel fell over 1% after the U.S. government announced a significant investment in the company[9] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin experienced its third consecutive day of decline, leading to a weakening of digital currency-related stocks[9]

国信证券(香港)·宏观周报 宏观周报（2025/8/18-8/22） "哑铃型"资产配置的逻辑 要点摘要 【上周焦点】 【宏观经济概览】 ⚫ 高频数据观察：美国经济增长动能边际放缓，消费仍边际偏 弱，就业市场继续降温，地产需求走弱。美日欧经济意外指 数上升。 【本周重点关注】 【观点及配置建议】 ⚫ 在全球经济基本面承压、经济政策仍具不确定性的宏观环境 下，资本市场波动或进一步加剧。从全球大类资产配置的视 角出发，在捕捉成长性及事件性市场机会的同时，应为不确 定性和波动提供尾部风险保护，建议"哑铃型"多元资产配 置逻辑，实现跨越周期的稳健收益。 2025 年 8 月 25 日 宏观周报 主要股市指数一年表现 主要利率一年表现 曾伟杰 SFC CE No.: BUH477 +852 2899 8300 javezeng@guosen.com.cn 注：以上数据均来官方披露、公司资料，国信证券（香港）研究部整理，请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及其项下所有内容。 ⚫ 美国：美股回调内部走势分化，三大指数先抑后扬，科技股 抛压显著，道指创历史新高，周五鲍威尔讲话释放降息信 号，推动市场风险偏好回升；美债收益率下行，美元 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,105, down 0.24% for the day and 0.65% for the week, but up 25.15% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.77% to 5,499, with a year-to-date increase of 23.06%[3] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.40% to 6,370, with a year-to-date rise of 8.31%[3] Sector Performance - Telecom equipment, cryptocurrency, and film sectors showed strong gains, while new consumption, new energy vehicles, and gold sectors were sluggish[9] - Internet healthcare stocks performed well, with Dingdang Health rising over 23% and Ping An Good Doctor increasing by over 11%[9] - Infrastructure stocks were active, with Renhe Technology and Taisheng Group both rising over 7%[9] Economic Indicators - The global stablecoin market has reached $271 billion, with potential growth to $770 billion by the end of 2027, driven by payment sector expansion[9] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, leading to an 80% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, although this expectation is facing challenges[9] Corporate Earnings - Walmart's Q2 revenue was $177.4 billion, exceeding expectations, but adjusted EPS of $0.68 fell short of the forecast of $0.74, marking the first miss in three years[12] - Kuaishou's Q2 revenue grew by 13.1% year-on-year to 35 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit increasing by 20.1%[14]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,165.94, down 0.41% for the day but up 25.57% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ended at 5,541.27, with a slight decrease of 0.01% daily and a year-to-date increase of 23.12%[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04% to 3,766.21, marking a year-to-date increase of 10.53%[3] Sector Performance - Semiconductor stocks showed gains, with SMIC and Hongguang Semiconductor rising over 3%[9] - New consumption concepts gained traction, with Pop Mart surging 12% and Laoputang Gold increasing by over 8%[9] - Solar energy stocks performed well, with Fuyao Glass rising over 15% and Xinyi Energy up over 3%[9] U.S. Market Dynamics - Major U.S. tech stocks fell, with Apple down 1.97% and Intel dropping 6.99% due to concerns over government intervention in the semiconductor sector[12] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index saw a slight increase of 0.33% amidst mixed performances of Chinese concept stocks[12] Economic Indicators - Japan's exports to the U.S. fell by 10.4% year-on-year in July, the largest decline since 2020, indicating the impact of U.S. tariff policies[12] - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed concerns over inflation risks, overshadowing worries about a weak job market[12] Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent sell-off in tech stocks may represent a rotation rather than a full-scale market downturn, with many undervalued sectors presenting attractive opportunities[9][12] - The semiconductor and AI sectors are expected to see structural growth driven by advancements in generative AI technology[9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,122.90, down 0.21% for the day and up 25.35% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.67%, with a year-to-date increase of 23.14%[3] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 3.30% for the day, but is up 23.70% year-to-date[3] Sector Performance - Pharmaceutical outsourcing stocks saw significant declines, with Tigermed down over 8% and other major players like WuXi AppTec and Pharmaron dropping over 5%[9] - Restaurant stocks performed well, with Daoxiang Holdings rising over 11% and other chains like Haidilao increasing by over 2%[9] - Sportswear stocks gained traction, with Anta Sports up over 4% following positive news on the sports industry[9] Investment Trends - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 18.573 billion, indicating a stable investment sentiment despite market fluctuations[9] - Electric vehicle manufacturer Leap Motor reported a 174% increase in revenue year-on-year, achieving HKD 24.25 billion in the first half of 2025[9] U.S. Market Insights - U.S. major indices showed mixed results, with concerns over potential hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve influencing investor behavior[9] - Large tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 3.50% and Meta down 2.07%[9] Global Economic Indicators - Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.38% as investors took profits after three consecutive days of gains[13] - The U.S. housing starts rose to a five-month high, indicating a potential recovery in the housing market[13]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,176.85, up 0.37% for the day and up 25.62% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.65%, with a year-to-date increase of 23.97%[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.85%, with a year-to-date gain of 9.41%[3] Sector Performance - The automotive sector saw significant gains, with Great Wall Motors up over 10% and NIO up over 6%[9] - The film industry performed well, with major stocks like Lingmeng Entertainment rising over 21%[9] - Coal stocks declined, with Green Leader Holdings dropping over 18%[9] Economic Indicators - In July, wholesale passenger car sales in China reached 2.22 million units, a historical high for the month, marking a 13% year-on-year increase[9] - The average daily output of raw coal in July was 12.29 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 174.6 thousand tons[9] U.S. Market Insights - U.S. stock indices closed nearly flat, with investors awaiting earnings reports from major retailers[9] - The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is anticipated to provide insights into economic outlooks and policy frameworks[9] Global Trends - The semiconductor sector faced pressure, with companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor dropping over 6% due to potential tariffs[9] - Japanese stocks continued to rise, with the Nikkei 225 index up 0.77%[10]