[Table_StockInfo] 2025 年 10 月 20 日 证券研究报告•2025 年三季报点评 国邦医药（605507）医药生物 目标价：——元（6 个月） 买入 （维持） 当前价：22.47 元 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 5,891 | 7,072 | 7,908 | 8,848 | | 增长率 | 10.12% | 20.05% | 11.83% | 11.88% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 782 | 1,052 | 1,247 | 1,409 | | 增长率 | 27.61% | 34.63% | 18.50% | 12.95% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 1.40 | 1.88 | 2.23 | 2.52 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 9.71% | 11.56% | 12.05% | 11.98% | | PE | 14.88 | 11.93 | 10.07 | 8.91 | ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 10 月 20 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券 ETF 周度跟踪（10.13-10.17） 债券 ETF 出现年内最大赎回潮 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 各类债券 ETF资金净流入情况：债券类 ETF全线净流出。上周利率债类 ETF、 信用债类 ETF、可转债类 ETF净流入资金分别-49.60亿元、-74.56亿元、-9.41 亿元，债券 ETF市场合计净流入金额-133.57亿元。国债类 ETF、科创债 ETF 周度净流出金额创新高。上周仅公司债 ETF、城投债 ETF获得小幅净流入， 其余类型债券 ETF净流入资金为负，其中科创债 ETF、国债类 ETF净流出金 额相对更多，分别为-49.52 亿元、-48.59 亿元。 ...

投资要点 西南证券研究院 整车企业出海拓市，优必选机器人再添大单 [Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 10 月 20 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•汽车 汽车行业周报（10.13-10.19） [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [Table_BaseData] 股票家数 | 274 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 53,870.87 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 41,669.77 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 29.6 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 14.2 | 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 -5% 5% 14% 24% 34% 44% 24/10 24/12 25/2 25/4 25/6 25/8 25/10 汽车 沪深300 数据来源：聚源数据 投资建议 [Table_Summary] ：10月 1-12 日乘用车零售 68.6万辆，同比下降 8%，环比增长 12%； 今年以来累计零售 1769.4万辆，同比增长 8%。10 月 1-12日，新能源乘用车 零售 36.7万 ...

[Table_Reporto] 2025 年 10 月 20 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券市场跟踪周报（10.13-10.17） 如何看待 30 年国债补涨行情的延续性？ 核心观点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 10 月以来，债市行情表现在期限结构上出现分化。从跨周表现来看，超长利 率品种在 10 月首周的涨幅相对滞后于长端利率，但于次周迎来了集中的补涨 行情，市场风格完成了从"利差走扩"向"利差压缩"的切换。从首周市场表 现来看，10年期国债在期现市场的表现均优于 30年期国债：现券市场上，10 年期国债收益率累计下行 3.99BP，而 30年期国债收益率仅下行 1.33BP，期 限利差有所走阔；期货市场同步印证，T2512合约累计上涨 0.13%，小幅跑赢 TL2512 合约 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 22.75 CNY over the next six months, based on a current price of 18.51 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in LNG and air separation equipment, benefiting from a high industry boom. It is actively exploring hydrogen energy applications and expanding its gas operation business, which opens up growth opportunities [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, originally named Deep Cold Co., was established in 2001 and focuses on gas purification, separation, and low-temperature liquefaction technologies. It has shifted towards high-end equipment manufacturing and is expanding into gas investment and clean energy operations [14][17]. 2. Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 861.51 million CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 28.9%. By 2027, revenues are projected to reach 1.31 billion CNY, with a compound annual growth rate of 16% for net profit [3][4][6]. - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 72.37 million CNY, reflecting a significant growth of 121.67% compared to the previous year [3][4]. 3. LNG and Air Separation Equipment - The company is a leading player in the LNG and air separation equipment market, with a projected market size of 533 billion CNY by 2025. The company has the capability to design and manufacture LNG processing plants with a daily capacity of 10 million cubic meters [6][35][56]. - In 2024, LNG equipment is expected to generate 6.1 billion CNY in revenue, accounting for over 70% of total revenue [24][26]. 4. Hydrogen Energy Business - The hydrogen energy sector is rapidly developing, with a projected production of 3.815 million tons in 2024, growing by 3.5%. The company has established a joint venture with Toyota to enter the hydrogen fuel cell market [71][88]. - The company is actively involved in the entire hydrogen energy value chain, including hydrogen production, storage, and application, leveraging resources from its parent group [83][87]. 5. Gas Operation Expansion - The company is expanding its gas operation business, with revenues from gas operations expected to grow significantly in the coming years. In 2023, revenues from gas operations were 2.76 million CNY, with projections of 12.46 million CNY in 2024 [6][19][26]. - The company is pursuing strategic acquisitions and investments in gas operation projects to enhance its operational scale [6][19].

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 10 月 16 日 证券研究报告•宏观简评报告 数据点评 社融增速延续回落，政府债融资减速 ——2025 年 9 月社融数据点评 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 [Table_Summary] 基数扰动下，社融增速继续小幅走低。从社融存量看，2025 年 1-9 月，社融 存量同比增长 8.7%，增速较 1-8月回落 0.1个百分点。从社融增量看，8月社 会融资规模增量为 35338亿元，同比少增 2297亿元，连续两个月同比少增。 9 月对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加 16080 亿元，同比少增 3662 亿元。9 月社融结构上，季末一般为信贷大月，人民币贷款占比回升，但是低于去年同 期占比，而直接融资占比边际走低。人民币贷款需求仍偏弱运行，同时政府债 券发行减速，且去年同期政府债券发行基数较高，因而导致社融增速走低。9 月，5000亿元新型政策性金融工具推出，预计在 10月底前完成投放，能够起 到稳信贷、稳投资的作用，此外，随着政府债券发行基数走低，且部分 2026 年新增地方政府债务限额预计提前下达，不排除 4季度提前使用的可能性， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The bond market may see a downward trend in the fourth quarter, but a cautious and optimistic attitude is recommended. The market has a foundation for a slow decline, with more rational pricing and stable allocation demand. The recent tariff shock is a "one - time" pricing behavior, and if the tariff policy fluctuates, long - duration assets may face callback risks. It's advisable to track the arrangement of the Sino - US summit to judge the implementation possibility of the tariff policy [2][90]. - The tariff and technology control may have limited impact on the domestic capital market. The potential "cancellation" or "reduction" of tariffs makes it difficult to immediately price the long - term impact on the fundamentals. The market is unlikely to repeat the extreme situation in April [4]. - In terms of investment strategy, the portfolio duration should be set at a medium - to - long level. High - quality coupon assets are recommended as the bottom - position, and opportunities in 2 - year AA -/AA - grade credit bonds and 10 - year local bonds can be explored. For trading, medium - duration varieties such as secondary perpetual bonds with large previous declines can be focused on [2][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - In October, the central bank did not conduct treasury bond trading operations [7]. - On October 9, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points for the first time in 10 years, which may signal a slow - bull market in the equity market and put upward pressure on the bond market [8]. - The fourth - quarter treasury bond issuance plan was announced. Treasury bond issuance, especially ultra - long - term bonds, may enter a seasonal off - peak. The 30 - year ultra - long - term special treasury bond will no longer be renewed, and 2500002 has an advantage in becoming the active bond [11]. - On October 10, 2025, Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods and export controls on key software, which will take effect on November 1, 2025, increasing the uncertainty of the Sino - US summit [15]. 3.2 Money Market - From October 9 to 11, 2025, the central bank's net reverse - repurchase investment was - 15263 billion yuan. The liquidity in the inter - bank market was loose after the cross - quarter. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) was positive, and the yields of NCDs declined [16][17]. - In the primary market, the total issuance scale of NCDs last week was 215.97 billion yuan, with a net financing of 81.02 billion yuan. The issuance scale of city commercial banks was the largest, but the net financing was negative. The issuance interest rates of NCDs increased compared with the previous week [26][28][30]. - In the secondary market, the yields of NCDs of all maturities decreased. The yield of AAA - rated 1 - month NCDs decreased by 17.96BP to 1.45%, and the 1Y - 3M spread was at the 56.98% quantile [32]. 3.3 Bond Market - In the first week after the holiday, treasury bonds were the main source of interest - rate bond supply. The total issuance of interest - rate bonds was 14, with an actual issuance of 286.864 billion yuan and a net financing of 215.998 billion yuan [34][41]. - In the primary market, from January to October, the net financing of local government bonds was faster than that of treasury bonds. As of October 11, 2025, the cumulative net financing of treasury bonds was about 5.58 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 6.15 trillion yuan [34]. - In the secondary market, from Thursday to Friday last week, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, and the 10 - 1 - year term spread was compressed. After Trump announced the tariff increase, the bond market declined significantly. The liquidity premium of active and sub - active bonds of 10 - year treasury bonds and 10 - year policy - bank bonds changed differently [34][46]. - The term spread of 10 - 1 - year treasury bonds was compressed to 47.19BP, and the 30 - 1 - year term spread widened. The long - and ultra - long - term spreads between local and national bonds changed differently [57][59]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase in the first week after the holiday was 7.53 trillion yuan, and the leveraged trading scale recovered after the holiday [62][68]. - In the cash - bond market, state - owned banks weakened their bond - buying, rural commercial banks significantly increased their purchases, especially of long - term local bonds and 5 - 10 - year policy - bank bonds. Securities firms and funds were also important buyers, while insurance companies were net sellers, especially of long - term treasury bonds [62][70]. - The current average cost of major trading players adding 10 - year treasury bonds is around 1.87% [74]. - Considering capital occupation and tax costs, commercial banks and insurance companies can obtain relatively higher returns by investing in local bonds [82]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased by 0.10% compared with before the holiday, the wire rod futures price was flat, the cathode copper futures price increased by 3.39%, the cement price index increased by 0.45%, and the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 0.66%. The CCFI index was flat, and the BDI index decreased by 9.89% [85]. - In terms of food prices, the pork wholesale price decreased by 3.47%, and the vegetable wholesale price decreased by 2.99%. The settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 1.15% and 1.38% respectively. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.11 [85].

Overall Summary Report's Core View - During the period from September 29 to October 10, 2025, there was a divergence in funds flowing into bond ETFs, with credit - bond ETFs being favored by funds. The net inflow of funds into interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs was - 569 million yuan, 9.619 billion yuan, and - 2.452 billion yuan respectively, and the total net inflow of the bond ETF market was 6.598 billion yuan. The market preferred science - innovation bond ETFs and short - term financing ETFs [3][6]. 1.1 Various Bond ETFs' Net Inflow of Funds - There was a divergence in funds flowing into bond ETFs, with credit - bond ETFs being favored. The net inflow of funds into interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs was - 569 million yuan, 9.619 billion yuan, and - 2.452 billion yuan respectively. The bond ETF market had a total net inflow of 6.598 billion yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of - 2.967 billion yuan this month and 417.82 billion yuan this year. As of October 10, 2025, the bond ETF fund scale was 69.1673 billion yuan, up 1.06% from September 26, 2025, and up 284.75% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 12.70% of the total market ETF scale, a 19bp increase from September 26 [6]. - The market preferred science - innovation bond ETFs and short - term financing ETFs. The net inflow of funds into science - innovation bond ETFs and short - term financing ETFs last week was + 5.013 billion yuan and + 4.528 billion yuan respectively, leading significantly. The net inflow of funds into convertible - bond ETFs, policy - financial bond ETFs, and treasury - bond ETFs was negative, at - 2.452 billion yuan, - 491 million yuan, and - 78 million yuan respectively [6]. 1.2 Various Bond ETFs' Share Trends - Convertible - bond ETFs had a significant outflow of shares. As of the close on October 10, 2025, the shares of treasury - bond, policy - financial bond, local - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs were 684.67 million shares, 438.69 million shares, 80.18 million shares, 6.97434 billion shares, and 5.10215 billion shares respectively. Compared with the close on September 26, 2025, they changed by - 0.04 million shares, - 4.28 million shares, no change, 91.41 million shares, and - 208 million shares respectively, with a total change of - 120.91 million shares for bond - type ETFs [17]. 1.3 Main Bond ETFs' Share and Net Value Trends - Long - term interest - rate bond ETFs and convertible - bond ETFs had a net outflow of shares. As of the close on October 10, 2025, the shares of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local - bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible - bond ETF changed by - 2.99 million shares, - 4.56 million shares, no change, no change, and - 107.80 million shares respectively compared with the close on September 26, 2025 [24]. - After the holiday, both stocks and bonds performed well, and the net values generally rebounded. As of the close on October 10, 2025, the net values of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local - bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible - bond ETF changed by - 0.38%, 0.11%, 0.11%, 0.06%, and 1.56% respectively compared with the close on September 26, 2025 [28]. 1.4 Benchmark Market - Making Credit - Bond ETFs' Share and Net Value Trends - There was no significant change in shares. As of the close on October 10, 2025, among the 8 existing benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs, the shares of most products had no change, and only a few had minor increases [31]. - The net values generally rebounded significantly. As of the close on October 10, 2025, the net values of the 8 credit - bond ETFs changed by 0.12% - 0.18% compared with the close on September 26, 2025 [32]. 1.5 Science - Innovation Bond ETFs' Share and Net Value Trends - The shares generally increased, with individual performance varying. Among the 24 existing science - innovation bond ETFs, the top three in terms of share inflow were GF Science - Innovation Bond ETF, Harvest Science - Innovation Bond ETF, and Dacheng Science - Innovation Bond ETF, with changes of 11.7 million shares, 10.0 million shares, and 8.0 million shares respectively compared with the close on September 26, 2025 [37]. - The net values generally increased, and the second - batch products generally had higher net values. This period saw a general increase in the net values of science - innovation bond ETFs, and the top three in terms of increase were Southern Science - Innovation Bond ETF, Harvest Science - Innovation Bond ETF, and GF Science - Innovation Bond ETF [38]. 1.6 Single Bond ETFs' Market Performance - Only the net values of ultra - long - term interest - rate bond ETFs declined. This period saw a general increase in net values, with convertible - bond ETFs leading the increase. Only the net values of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF and Boshi 30 - year treasury - bond ETF declined by - 0.4% and - 0.6% respectively [40]. - In terms of premium/discount rates, Boshi Credit - Bond ETF, E Fund Corporate Bond ETF, and Credit - Bond ETF Fund had relatively high discount rates. In terms of scale changes, the short - term financing ETF had a significantly leading net inflow this period, followed by GF Science - Innovation Bond ETF and Harvest Science - Innovation Bond ETF [40].

Macro Perspective - On October 10, 2025, President Trump announced a 100% tariff on goods imported from China, effective November 1, as a response to China's export controls on rare earths [2][6] - In the first eight months of this year, China's exports increased by 4.6% year-on-year, while imports grew by 2.5%. However, exports to the US fell by 15.5% [2] - The escalation of tariffs could further pressure Chinese exports, but growth in non-US markets may provide some buffer against domestic economic impacts [2][3] Strategy Perspective - The announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April led to stable performance in sectors like daily consumption and public utilities, which could serve as short-term hedges against uncertainty [4] - Certain manufacturing sectors, such as passenger vehicles and white goods, are expected to be more resilient to tariff impacts due to capacity expansion overseas [4] Fixed Income Perspective - The new tariffs have sparked concerns about market volatility, with potential implications for asset prices. Observing the implied volatility in the options market may provide insights into market sentiment [5][6] - The impact of the tariffs on the domestic capital market is expected to be limited, with the possibility of tariff cancellation or reduction remaining [6] Pharmaceutical Industry Perspective - China's pharmaceutical exports to the US were valued at $19 billion in 2024, with a 12% increase, while imports were $15.1 billion, down 4.6% [8] - The tariff impacts are expected to primarily affect companies with significant US market exposure, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices [8] Computer Industry Perspective - Domestic software products have gained traction in government and financial sectors, with a shift towards enterprise applications [12] - The urgency for domestic alternatives in EDA software has increased due to trade tensions, with local vendors beginning to gain competitive ground [13] Semiconductor Industry Perspective - The trade tensions have accelerated the push for domestic semiconductor production, particularly in areas with high external dependency [13][14] - The domestic semiconductor equipment sector has made significant progress, with local manufacturers entering mainstream production lines [14] Metals Industry Perspective - The market's acceptance of tariff expectations is higher than before, suggesting that after initial panic, opportunities in non-ferrous metals may become more pronounced [7][9] - Strategic metals are increasingly important in the context of US-China relations, highlighting potential investment opportunities in this sector [10]

Core Insights - The report presents two industry rotation models: one based on similar expected return differentials and another based on changes in analyst expectations, both aimed at identifying investment opportunities in various sectors [11][22]. Group 1: Similar Expected Return Differential Model - The latest configuration suggests focusing on sectors such as coal, communication, basic chemicals, automotive, real estate, and machinery [21]. - In September 2025, the model achieved a monthly return of +4.56%, outperforming the equal-weighted industry index by +3.66% [21]. - The historical backtest from December 2016 to September 2025 shows that the model has a mean Information Coefficient (IC) of 0.09, indicating strong selection ability [14][15]. Group 2: Analyst Expectation Change Model - The latest configuration highlights sectors including non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, communication, steel, and computers [33]. - In September 2025, the model recorded a monthly return of +1.03%, with an excess return of +0.13% over the equal-weighted industry index [33]. - The historical backtest from December 2016 to September 2025 indicates a mean IC of 0.06, demonstrating significant industry selection capability [23][24]. Group 3: ETF Portfolio Construction - The recommended ETF portfolio for October 2025 includes sectors such as non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, and automotive [35]. - Specific ETFs listed include the Huabao CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF and the Southern CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF, among others, with significant fund shares [35].