大公国际：六部门发文规范供应链金融业务 征求意见，助力供应链类证券化产品高质量 发展 结构融资部 曾凤智 2025 年 2 月 6 日，中国人民银行、金融监管总局、最高人民法院、国家发 展改革委、商务部及市场监管总局等六部门就《关于规范供应链金融业务 引导 供应链信息服务机构更好服务中小企业融资有关事宜的通知（征求意见稿）》（以 下简称"《通知》"）公开征求意见。《通知》共 21 条内容，旨在提升金融服务 实体经济质效，优化中小企业融资环境，强化供应链金融规范，防控相关业务风 险。供应链类资产证券化产品是供应链金融的重要工具，底层资产高度依赖供应 链数据的真实性和透明度，核心企业信用状况与供应链类资产证券化产品信用质 量息息相关，《通知》的发布为供应链类资产证券化产品发行、信息披露和风险 管理提供政策支持，助力供应链类资产证券化产品高质量发展。本文结合《通知》 要求及供应链类资产证券化产品特点重点分析《通知》对供应链类资产证券化产 品影响。 一、《通知》起草背景 近年来，随着供应链金融加快发展，供应链信息服务机构通过搭建供应链信 息服务系统，为各类供应链金融活动提供信息服务和技术支撑。其中，部分供应 链核心企 ...

行业研究 行业研究|水泥行业 水泥行业 2025 年水泥行业展望：需求维持偏弱，供给预期优化 文/白迪 陈杰 摘要 2024 年，由于房地产市场持续处于深度调整阶段，叠加基础设施投资增速持续放缓， 水泥行业需求难以得到有效提振，国内水泥价格全年呈现"低位徘徊、震荡回升"的走 势，前三季度行业盈利情况同比明显下滑，但盈利情况较上半年有所修复。展望2025年， 在水泥行业积极开展行业自律和错峰生产的预期下，水泥价格水平或受供给优化将在一 定范围内有所修复，盈利状况或较 2024 年有所好转，但由于需求预计仍将维持偏弱态 势，水泥价格反弹动力有限，结合成本端或难有明显改善，行业盈利状况保持谨慎预期。 正文 一、行业政策 2023 年以来，一系列政策出台促进水泥行业供给侧结构性改革；其中，节能降碳和 产能置换成为影响水泥行业发展的两个重要因素。 2023 年以来，一系列政策出台推进水泥行业供给侧结构性改革，促进行业转型升级。 其中，节能降碳和产能置换成为影响水泥行业发展的两个重要因素。 节能降碳方面，在"双碳目标"的引领下，节能降碳成为水泥行业发展的"关键词"。 2023 年 6 月，发改委等五部门发布《工业重点领域 ...

行业研究 行业研究|零售行业 零售行业 文/周春云 摘要 2024 年，在消费品以旧换新政策带动下，消费市场总体保持平稳增长，服务零售对 消费增长形成重要支撑，网络零售占比持续提升；居民收入和消费均保持增长，但增速 有所下滑，全年 CPI 走势偏弱，我国物价仍处于低位。2024 年，国家层面陆续出台一系 列相关政策支持"两新"行动，消费品以旧换新工作取得积极成效；2025 年 1 月出台 《关于 2025 年加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，增加了家 电产品以旧换新补贴范围，并对购买手机、平板、智能手表手环 3 类数码产品实施购新 补贴，预计 2025 年，政策主基调仍将是消费品以旧换新。在电商等线上平台冲击以及 百货"闭店潮"下，零售企业面临较大盈利压力，2024 年前三季度，零售行业企业盈利 整体下行；未来随着《零售业创新提升工程实施方案》的逐步落地实施，零售业发展困 境或将有所好转，盈利能力或将有所提升。截至 2024 年末，零售行业存续主体整体级 别较高，存续债券期限结构较为分散，零售企业整体债务压力不大。 正文 一、行业概况 2024 年，在消费品以旧换新政策带动下，消费市场总 ...

宏观经济 大公国际：美国近期政策调整的多重影响：关税、物流 与货币体系变化 技术研究部（研究院） 宏观债市组 2025 年 2 月 8 日 自美国总统特朗普再次就任以来，美国国家治理理念强调"美国优先"战略， 着力强化本国经济竞争力与自主性。这一战略转变促使美国在关税、物流等领域 采取较为激进的政策调整，凸显了美国在国际贸易中的单边主义倾向。同时，为 应对美元购买力下降和通货膨胀风险，美国部分州政府陆续宣布将黄金和白银认 定为法定货币。这些变化不仅对中美经贸关系产生一定影响，还可能进一步加剧 全球市场的不确定性，并对全球供应链、资本流动及金融市场稳定性构成挑战。 一、美国对华加征关税新政 近期，中美经贸问题再度升温，双方先后出台进出口制裁新举措，涉及到关 税加征、市场准入限制以及出口管制等方面，中美贸易局势再添变数。2025 年 2 月，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，对所有进口自中国的商品加征 10%的关税。美 方以"芬太尼问题"为由，指责中国并实施制裁。作为回应，中国国务院关税税 则委员会宣布，自 2025 年 2 月 10 日起，对原产于美国的部分进口商品加征关 税，包括煤炭、液化天然气、原油等。 此次贸易摩 ...

Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Trump's presidency marks a significant shift in U.S.-China trade relations, emphasizing "America First" policies[1] - Historical context shows that U.S. trade deficits and domestic industry concerns drive current trade strategies[3] - China's trade surplus with the U.S. reached $3.72 trillion since joining the WTO, averaging $186 billion annually[6] Group 2: Tariff Policy Implications - Tariffs are a key tool for the Trump administration to balance foreign trade relations, with a focus on industry security and geopolitical considerations[3] - The average most-favored-nation tariff rate for the U.S. is approximately 2.2%, but potential trade conflicts could raise this to over 60% for China[7] - Trump's tax policies aim to reduce corporate tax rates from 25% to 15%, encouraging domestic manufacturing and investment[5] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations for China - China should enhance its global trade and investment strategies, leveraging initiatives like the Belt and Road to mitigate tariff impacts[10] - Adjusting the RMB exchange rate may be necessary to counteract U.S. tariffs, with potential depreciation to offset trade barriers[11] - Establishing overseas manufacturing facilities can help avoid tariffs and strengthen global supply chains[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable credit quality outlook for the financing guarantee industry in 2025, with a focus on supporting small and micro enterprises, agriculture, and technological innovation [3][5][46]. Core Insights - The financing guarantee industry is expected to face operational pressure due to a contraction in bond guarantee business and a cautious approach to market-oriented loan guarantees, with profitability continuing to be under pressure [3][4][19]. - The industry is anticipated to see a stable competitive landscape, with credit quality remaining stable and liquidity risks being manageable [3][4][32]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies in supporting the financing guarantee sector, particularly in enhancing support for strategic emerging industries and alleviating financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises [5][6][7]. Industry Policy - In 2024, policies will continue to emphasize increasing direct financing, with a focus on resource allocation to small and micro enterprises, agriculture, and technological innovation [4][5]. - By 2025, it is expected that financing guarantee institutions will receive more support from local governments, enhancing their ability to support strategic emerging industries [5][6]. Business Operations - The focus of market-oriented business for guarantee institutions remains on urban investment bonds, although the scale of bond guarantee business is expected to decline due to various factors [9][10][18]. - The report notes a significant increase in the issuance of overseas bonds, with a total of 379.60 billion yuan in new overseas bond guarantees from January to November 2024, compared to only 0.50 billion yuan in 2023 [13]. Asset Quality - The report indicates that the guarantee institutions will face significant compensation pressure in their loan guarantee business, but overall asset quality is expected to remain controllable [22][25]. - The structure of assets will continue to prioritize high liquidity assets, with a focus on managing credit risk and liquidity [22][25]. Profitability - Profitability for guarantee institutions is projected to remain under pressure due to low guarantee fee rates and declining income from funding operations [26][31]. - The report anticipates a continued decline in guarantee business income, with the income from interest-bearing assets also being compressed [26][31]. Liquidity - The liquidity risk for guarantee institutions is expected to remain manageable, with high liquidity assets effectively covering interest-bearing debts and compensation shocks from loan guarantees [32][38]. - The overall leverage level of guarantee institutions is low, and they face minimal pressure from on-balance-sheet debt management [32][38]. Capital Adequacy - The capital replenishment demand for market-oriented guarantee institutions is expected to decrease, but there will be a differentiation in capital levels across the industry [39][41]. - The report highlights that while some government-backed guarantee institutions may see an increase in capital replenishment needs, the overall pace of capital expansion in the industry is expected to slow down [39][41]. Credit Quality - The credit quality of guarantee institutions engaged in bond guarantee business is expected to remain high, with a significant proportion rated AAA [46][48]. - The report indicates that the overall credit quality of the financing guarantee industry will remain stable, supported by the strong credit levels of major institutions [46][48].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The traditional "pig cycle" has failed since 2022, with significant changes in the industry structure and market behavior, leading to a shift in focus from profitability to cash flow analysis [1][12][16] - The supply price elasticity of pork is low, while demand remains stable, contributing to the difficulty in maintaining long-term price stability [2][12] - The industry has experienced three complete "pig cycles" from 2010 to 2022, characterized by cyclical price fluctuations driven by breeding systems and market structures [4][6][10] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Pork is a major protein source in China, with per capita consumption at 30.5 kg in 2023, leading to a market value of approximately 2 trillion [2] - The average price of live pigs in the national market was 15.67 yuan/kg as of December 19, 2024, down over 25% from mid-year highs [2] Historical "Pig Cycles" - The report outlines three cycles from 2010 to 2022, with significant price increases and decreases influenced by external factors such as disease outbreaks and policy changes [4][6] - The last cycle saw a price increase of nearly 300% from May 2018 to October 2019, primarily driven by African swine fever [6][12] Changes in Industry Structure - The industry has shifted from a pyramid breeding system dominated by smallholders to a more professionalized and scaled operation, leading to increased market concentration [12][13] - The rise of large-scale enterprises has altered market dynamics, reducing the predictability of the traditional four-year cycle [12][13] Cash Flow and Credit Risk Analysis - The focus on cash flow is critical, as the industry faces a prolonged period of losses since 2022, with cash flow being a key determinant of operational sustainability [16][17] - As of December 16, 2024, the total bond issuance in the industry was 626.69 billion yuan, with a concentration among major players like Muyuan Foods and WH Group [19][20] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a cautious increase in supply in 2025, with a slight decline in the average price level compared to 2024, influenced by stable demand and improved breeding efficiency [30][42] - The overall credit risk in the industry is expected to remain manageable, with differentiation between strong and weak players based on cost control and financing capabilities [44][45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the credit quality of the banking industry in 2025, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The banking industry is expected to achieve stable credit quality in 2025, with government debt risk mitigation and favorable real estate policies helping to alleviate credit risks in key areas [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of effective service to the real economy and the need for banks to support major strategies and key areas while managing risks in small and medium-sized banks [4][5]. - The overall liquidity of commercial banks is projected to remain sufficient, supported by appropriate monetary policies [38][41]. Summary by Sections Industry Policy - In 2025, regulatory policies will continue to guide the banking industry to effectively serve the real economy, with a focus on supporting major strategies and key areas [3][4]. Operating Scale - The banking sector is expected to see an increase in credit demand due to more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which will enhance the total credit supply [15][22]. Asset Quality - The overall asset quality of commercial banks is anticipated to remain stable in 2025, aided by government support and favorable policies in the real estate sector [23][30]. Profitability - The net interest margin of commercial banks is expected to continue to be under pressure due to declining market interest rates, which may challenge the profitability stability of regional banks [31][32]. Liquidity Level - The liquidity level of commercial banks is projected to remain adequate, supported by moderately loose monetary policies [38][41]. Capital Adequacy - The capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks is expected to improve, particularly for state-owned large banks, while regional banks will still face urgent capital replenishment needs [42][45]. Debt Financing - The issuance of special financial bonds by banks is expected to remain active in 2025, while the issuance of "perpetual bonds" may decline due to new capital replenishment channels [46][47]. Credit Quality - The overall credit quality of the banking industry is expected to remain stable in 2025, although attention should be paid to the credit quality of banks in economically weaker regions [51][52].

Economic Overview - In 2024, China's GDP is expected to grow by 4.8% year-on-year, maintaining positive growth for nine consecutive quarters[2] - The manufacturing sector shows strong performance, with high-tech manufacturing investment growing by 9.3% year-on-year, contributing 68.1% to overall investment growth[5] - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 44.27 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% from January to November 2024[4] Policy Measures - The government plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies and measures to boost domestic demand in 2025, with a GDP growth target of around 5%[8] - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase to approximately 4% in 2025, translating to a deficit scale of about 5.4 trillion yuan[13] - Monetary policy is shifting to "moderately loose," with expectations of further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates to support economic growth[12] Investment and Consumption - Investment in infrastructure is expected to be supported by the issuance of special bonds, with the scale potentially increasing to 4.5 trillion yuan in 2025[13] - Consumer spending is anticipated to recover, driven by policies aimed at enhancing income levels and optimizing supply structures[10] - The real estate sector is projected to stabilize, with various policy adjustments aimed at supporting market recovery[11] Trade and External Factors - China's total goods trade is expected to grow by 4.9% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2024, with a diverse range of trading partners[7] - The export of high-tech products is projected to increase by 8.4%, reflecting the ongoing transformation and upgrading of domestic industries[7] - Despite global economic uncertainties, China's economy is expected to maintain stability and sustainable growth in 2025, leveraging domestic market potential[14]

目录 | --- | --- | |--------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 信用风险展望 | | | | | | | | 信用风险展望 水务行业 2025 年信用风险展望 构建节水型社会、推进城乡供水一体化 推动水务行业高质量发展 | --- | --- | |----------|----------------------------| | | | | 行业政策 | .........................2 | | 行业发展 | .........................5 | | 盈利能力 | .........................7 | | 债务负担 | .........................9 | | 信用质量 | ........................11 | 2024 年以来，水利建设投资规模创新高，水务 行业存续债券规模较大且继续增长，但主营业务盈 利空间有限。预计 2025 年，加快重大水利工程建 设、提高水资源节约集约利用水平是行业重点发展 ...