资金面保持宽松；风险偏好升温，债市延续弱势 【内容摘要】7 月 22 日，资金面保持宽松，主要回购利率延续下行；风险偏好升温带动股市 和商品上涨，债市延续弱势；转债市场主要指数集体跟涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收 益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【国家外汇局：今年以来外汇市场运行平稳，韧性较强】7 月 22 日，国新办就 2025 年上半年 外汇收支数据情况举行新闻发布会。国家外汇管理局副局长李斌在回答中国证券报记者提问 时表示，今年以来，外汇形势复杂多变，风险挑战明显增加。面对外部冲击，我国外汇市场顶 住压力，运行平稳，表现出较强韧性。来华各类投资总体向好，1-5 月份，股权性质来华直接 投资净流入 311 亿美元，同比增长 16%；来华证券投资净流入约 330 亿美元，逆转了去年下半 年净流出态势。 【养老保险基金投资运营规模已达 2.55 万亿元】7 月 22 日，人力资源社会保障部举行 2025 年二季度新闻发布会，人力资源社会保障部有关负责人介绍，上半年社保制度改革持续深化， 6 月底全国基本养老、失业、工伤保险三项社保基金累计结余 9 ...

——利率债周报（2025.7.14-2025.7.20） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 时间 2025 年 7 月 21 日 上周债市偏暖震荡，收益率曲线陡峭化下移 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市偏暖震荡，收益率曲线陡峭化下移。上周（7 月 14 日 当周）公布的6月贸易、金融及宏观经济数据整体表现较好，但 需求侧地产和投资、消费等指标仍显疲弱，因而对债市的利空 影响有限。从资金面来看，面对税期扰动，上周央行加大呵护 力度，连续开展大额净投放并开展买断式逆回购，资金面由紧 转松，加之周五央行就取消对债券回购的质押券进行冻结的规 定征求意见，被视为优化流动性管理的信号，对债市短端更为 有利，上周债市短端利率转为下行。整体上看，上周债市以震 荡为主，短端利率走低传导至长端，长端利率微幅下行，收益 率曲线陡峭化下移。 本周（7 月 21 日当周）债市或延续偏暖震荡。本周进入经济 数据真空期，加之市场对基本面和股市反应渐趋钝化，或聚焦 资金面和货币政策信号进行交易。近期央行呵护资金面态度明 确，预计税期过后资金面将维持宽松状态，资金价格有望重返 低位，这将带动短端利率进一步下行并向长端传导。由 ...

、万金城国际信用评估有限公司 东方金诚宏观研究 上半年宏观经济增长动能偏强,下半年稳增长政策有望进一步加力 2025 年 6 月宏观数据点评 首席宏观分析师 王青 研究发展部执行总监 冯琳 事件: 据国家统计局 2025年 7 月 15日公布的数据, 2025年二季度 GDP 同比增长 5.2%，上半年 GDP 同比增长 5.3%. 上半年 GDP 增速较 2024年全年加快 0.3 百分点;2025 年 6 月规模以上工业增加值同比 实际增长 6.8%,前值为 5.8%; 上半年规模以上工业增加值累计同比实际增长 6.4%,2024年全年累计同 比为 5.8%;6月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 4.8%,前值为 6.4%;上半年社会消费品零售总额累计同比 增长 5.0%，2024年全年累计同比为 3.5%;2025年 1-6 月全国固定资产投资累计同比增长 2.8%,前值为 3.7%. 2024年全年累计同比增长 3.2%。 基本观点: | 整体上看,上半年面临外部经贸环境剧烈波动带来的重大冲击,宏观经济延续去年四季度以来的偏 | | --- | | 强增长态势，代表新质生产力发展的高技术制造业等领域保持较快 ...

根据海关总署公布的数据,以美元计价,2025年6月出口额同比增长5.8%,增速比5月高1个百 分点;其中,6月对美出口同比下降 16.1%;降幅比上月收窄 18.4个百分点;6月进口额同比增长1.1%, 增速比５月提升 4.5 个百分点;其中，6月自美进口同比为-15.5%,降幅比５月收窄 2.6个百分点。 一、6月出口同比增速回升,好于市场预期,主要源于5月中美日内瓦会谈后,美国对华超高关税 下调，6月我国对美出口同比降幅显著收窄;与此同时,6月处于美国全球对等关税"暂缓期",我国 企业对美国之外市场仍存在一定的"转出口"和"抢出口"效应。 以人民币计价。6月出口、进口额同比增速分别为7.2%和2.3%,与同期以美元计价的增速差主要源 于过去一年中人民币对美元有所贬值。 以美元计价:6月出口额同比增速为5.8%,比5月高1个百分点,好于市场普遍预期。背后主要有 两个原因:首先,6月对美出口同比下降 16.1%,降幅比上月收窄 18.4个百分点,对整体出口形成较大 的推升作用。据测算，6月对美出口降幅收窄，直接推高整体出口增速约 2.7个百分点。可以看到，5 月 12日中美发布日内瓦联合声明,未来 90天内美 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 6 月金融数据偏强,信贷结构改善 2025 年 6 月金融数据点评 李晓峰 冯琳 記言 事件: 2025年7月14日,央行公布的数据显示, 2025年6月新增人民币贷款 2.24万亿,同比多增 1100亿;6月新增社会融资规模为41993亿,同比多增9008亿;6月末,广义货币(M2)同比增长8.3%, 增速比上月末高０.4个百分点;狭义货币(M1)同比增长 4.6%,增速较上月末高 2.3个百分点。 基本观点: 总体上看,6月新增信贷和新增社融均实现同比多增,好于市场预期。背后是5月降息降准落地,6 | 月央行持续实施中期流动性净投放,企业和居民融资成本下行,信贷可获得性改善,加之政府债券处于发 | | --- | | 行高峰期，拉动社融数据走高。另外，当月票据冲量现象明显缓解，企业短贷同比大幅多增，信贷结构也 | | 有所改善。需要指出的是，上半年新增贷款较去年同期少增，主要是受地方政府债置换地方融资平台贷款 | | 的影响,如果把隐债置换影响进行还原,按可比口径,上半年新增贷款将为同比多增。6月新增社融连续 | | 第７个月同比多增，上半年新增社融较上年同期多增逾 4.7万亿，表明当前 ...

事件: 2025年7月21日,中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新版 LPR 报价：1 年 期品种报 3.0%,上月为3.0%;5年期以上品种报 3.5%,上月为 3.5%。 = 乐力金城国际信用评估有限公司 东方金诚宏观研究 7 月 LPR 报价保持不变符合市场预期,下半年有下调空间 王青 李晓峰 马琳 l言东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司 东方金诚宏观研究 权利及免责声明: 本研究报告及相关的信用分析数据、模型、软件、评级结果等所有内容的著作权和其他相关知识产权均归东方金诚所有，东方金诚保留 一切与此相关的权利，任何机构及个人未经东方金诚书面授权不得修改、复制、逆向工程、销售、分发、储存、引用或以任何方式传 播。 本研究报告中引用的标明出处的公开资料，其合法性、真实性、准确性、完整性均由资料提供方/ 发布方负责，东方金诚对该等资料进 行了合理审慎的核查，但不应视为东方金诚对其合法性、真实性、准确性及完整性提供了任何形式的保证。 由于评级预测具有主观性和局限性，东方金诚对于评级预测以及基于评级预测的结论并不保证与实际情况一致，并保留随时予以修正或 更新的权利。 本研究报告仅用于为投资人、发行人等授权使用 ...

关方在业务开展过程中存在违反自律规则的情况，将依据有关规定予以自律处理。 国有险企长周期考核机制落地；资金面略有收敛，债市整体偏弱震荡 【内容摘要】7 月 11 日，资金面均衡中略有收敛；债市整体偏弱震荡；转债市场主要指数涨 跌不一，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益 率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【财政部：国有险企今年起全面落地三年以上长周期考核，增加五年周期指标】财政部 7 月 11 日印发《关于引导保险资金长期稳健投资 进一步加强国有商业保险公司长周期考核的通 知》。《通知》明确要求，进一步加强国有险企长周期考核。一方面，将净资产收益率由"当 年度指标+三年周期指标"调整为"当年度指标+三年周期指标+五年周期指标"，权重分别为 30%、50%、20%；另一方面将资本保值增值率由"当年度指标"调整为"当年度指标+三年周期 指标+五年周期指标"，权重分别为 30%、50%、20%。以降低市场波动对国有商业保险公司当年 绩效评价结果的影响，引导其长期投资、价值投资、稳健投资，更好发挥其长期机构投资者作 用。上述要求自 2025 年度绩效评价起开始实施。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On July 10, the liquidity tightened marginally, with major repo rates rising slightly. Under the influence of multiple negative factors, the bond market weakened significantly. The convertible bond market followed the equity market and rose, with most individual convertible bonds increasing. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally increased, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies also mostly rose [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a policy briefing on the "1 + 6" reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board. The National Development and Reform Commission plans to increase investment in key areas of new - type urbanization using "two important and two new" funds [3]. - **International News**: On July 10, Fed Governor Waller suggested considering a rate cut in July, stating that the current federal funds rate is overly restrictive [4]. - **Commodities**: On July 10, international crude oil futures prices declined (WTI August crude futures fell 2.19% to $66.88/barrel, Brent September crude futures fell 2.2% to $68.64/barrel), while international natural gas prices rose (NYMEX natural gas prices rose 4.96% to $3.365/ounce), and COMEX gold futures rose 0.38% to $3333.67/ounce [6]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open - Market Operations**: On July 10, the central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 57.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 32.8 billion yuan [8]. - **Funding Rates**: On July 10, the liquidity tightened marginally, with DR001 rising 0.56bp to 1.323% and DR007 rising 1.78bp to 1.495% [9]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 10, affected by factors such as the continuous improvement of the stock market, marginal tightening of liquidity, and rumors that Hebei Province guided rural commercial banks to reduce the proportion of bond investments, the bond market weakened significantly. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 1.45bp to 1.6595%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250210 rose 1.40bp to 1.7380% [11]. - **Bond Tendering**: Details of bond issuances including various bonds such as 25贴现国开清发02, 25国开清发02(增发19), etc., are provided, including their tenors, issuance scales, winning yields, over - subscription ratios, and marginal ratios [13]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 10, 2 industrial bonds ("H1碧地02" down over 34% and "23亦庄06" up over 11%) and 1 urban investment bond ("20泗阳佳鼎债" down over 18%) had transaction price deviations exceeding 10% [14][15]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Events include bond restructuring of Longfor Group, regulatory warnings for Lan创建设, debt - related issues of Xi'an Quwen Investment, Jiangsu Nantong Sanjian, etc., as well as bond repayment and interest - rate adjustment plans of some companies [16]. 3.4 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On July 10, the three major A - share indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 0.48%, 0.47%, and 0.22% respectively, and the full - day trading volume reaching 1.52 trillion yuan. The main convertible bond indexes also rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index up 0.40%, 0.40%, and 0.45% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 68.377 billion yuan, a decrease of 994 million yuan from the previous trading day. Among 469 convertible bonds, 338 rose, 123 fell, and 8 remained flat [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On July 10, Zhite Convertible Bond announced an early redemption, and Hongcheng Convertible Bond announced that it was about to meet the early redemption conditions [19]. 3.5 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On July 10, the yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury remained unchanged at 3.86%, while yields of other tenors generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury rose 1bp to 4.35%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread widened by 1bp to 49bp, and the 5/30 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed by 2bp to 93bp. The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) rose 1bp to 2.34% [20][21][22]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 10, the yield of the 10 - year UK government bond remained unchanged, while yields of 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond rose 3bp to 2.66%, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in France, Italy, and Spain rose 4bp, 4bp, and 1bp respectively [23]. - **Chinese - Issued Dollar Bonds**: Price changes of Chinese - issued dollar bonds as of the close on July 10 are provided, including daily and monthly changes of bonds issued by companies such as Oceanwide, Country Garden, NIO, etc. [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 8, the liquidity remained loose; affected by the stock-bond seesaw effect, the bond market oscillated weakly; the main indices of the convertible bond market rose collectively, and most convertible bond issues increased; the yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies generally increased [1] Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market News (1) Domestic News - The National Development and Reform Commission and other three departments will support eligible zero-carbon park projects through local government special bond funds, etc., and encourage policy banks to provide medium - and long - term credit support [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission newly allocated 10 billion yuan in central budgetary investment for the work - relief program, supporting 1,975 projects in 26 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, expected to pay 4.59 billion yuan in labor remuneration and help 310,000 key groups stabilize employment and increase income [3] - On July 8, the central bank and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced three opening - up optimization measures for Bond Connect, including improving the south - bound mechanism, optimizing the offshore repo business mechanism, and optimizing the Swap Connect operation mechanism [4] - The central bank is actively researching other measures to promote the opening - up of the bond market, such as deepening the connectivity between domestic and foreign financial markets, improving cross - border investment and financing facilitation, and enriching the offshore RMB financial product system [6] (2) International News - Trump said that equal - tariff measures would be implemented starting August 1, 2025, and warned that the EU would receive a tariff letter, with potential tariff rates of 60% - 70% and a 10% tariff increase on India [7] (3) Commodities - On July 8, WTI August crude oil futures rose 0.59% to $68.33 per barrel, Brent September crude oil futures rose 0.82% to $70.15 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.96% to $3,310.80 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.88% to $3.349 per ounce [8] 2. Liquidity (1) Open Market Operations - On July 8, the central bank conducted 69 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 131 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds was 62 billion yuan [10] (2) Funding Rates - On July 8, the liquidity remained loose. DR001 rose 0.01bp to 1.315%, and DR007 fell 0.25bp to 1.464%. Other funding rates also showed corresponding changes [11][12] 3. Bond Market Dynamics (1) Interest - rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 8, affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market oscillated weakly. The yields of 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 and 10 - year China Development Bank bond active issue 250210 rose 0.30bp and 0.55bp respectively [14][15] - **Bond Tendering Situation**: The tendering information of several bonds such as 25Guokai02 (Zeng4), 25Guokai08 (Zeng6) was provided, including maturity, issuance scale, winning yield, etc. [16] (2) Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 8, 7 urban investment bonds had transaction price deviations of over 10%, with some falling and some rising [17] - **Credit Bond Events**: Events such as overdue debts of Shimao Construction, overseas debt restructuring of Times China Holdings were reported [19] (3) Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On July 8, the three major A - share indices rose collectively, and the main indices of the convertible bond market also rose. The convertible bond market turnover was 76.882 billion yuan [19][20] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On July 9, Guanghe Convertible Bond started online subscription. On July 8, Lanfan Convertible Bond announced a downward revision of the conversion price, and several convertible bonds announced early redemption or were about to meet early redemption conditions [26] (4) Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On July 8, the yield of 2 - year U.S. Treasuries remained unchanged at 3.90%, while the yields of other maturities generally increased. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread widened by 2bp, and the 5/30 - year spread narrowed by 1bp [23][25] - **European Bond Market**: On July 8, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally increased, with Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK seeing corresponding increases [28] - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - issued Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - issued dollar bonds as of the close on July 8 were provided, including information on credit entities, bond codes, and price changes [30]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of 0.1% in May, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.1% for the first half of the year[1][2] - The main drivers for the CPI increase were a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in vegetable prices and a rise in domestic energy prices due to international crude oil price increases[2][3] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.4%, indicating a weak overall price level[3][6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In June 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, widening from a decline of 3.3% in May, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.8% for the first half of the year[1][2][8] - The PPI decline was primarily influenced by weak domestic demand and oversupply, leading to accelerated price declines in coal, steel, and cement[2][9] - The PPI's month-on-month decline remained at 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, marking four consecutive months of such a decline[8][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the CPI may return to negative territory in July, likely around -0.2%, due to external economic pressures and high base effects from the previous year[7][12] - The PPI is expected to continue its month-on-month decline in July, but the rate of decline may slightly narrow, with a year-on-year decline projected to remain around -3.6%[12]