国际金价历史性突破 5100 美元关口；资金面延续紧平衡态势，债市震荡盘整 【内容摘要】1 月 26 日，税期结束，但资金面紧平衡态势未见明显缓和；债市震荡盘整；转 债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【央行：维护金融市场稳健运行和金融体系整体稳定】1 月 22 日，央行召开 2026 年宏观审慎 工作会议，总结 2025 年宏观审慎管理和跨境人民币业务工作，分析当前形势，部署 2026 年工 作。会议要求，2026 年宏观审慎工作要继续按照构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系部署，强 化中央银行宏观审慎管理功能，持续完善宏观审慎和金融稳定委员会工作机制，逐步拓展宏观 审慎政策覆盖范围，前瞻性研判系统性金融风险隐患，创新丰富政策工具箱，维护金融市场稳 健运行和金融体系整体稳定。以服务构建新发展格局为导向，进一步完善人民币跨境使用政策， 促进货物贸易便利化，优化人民币清算行布局，更好发挥货币互换作用，发展人民币离岸市场， 支持上海国际金融中心建设，更好满足各类主体人民币交易结算、投融资、风险管理等需求。 【国 ...

地缘政治风险加剧、美元走弱，金价突 破历史高位 ——黄金周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.25） ·· 时间 东方金诚 研究发展部 2026 年 1 月 27 日 地缘政治风险加剧、美元走弱，金价突破历史高位。上周五 （1 月 23 日），沪金主力期货价格较前周五上涨 8.07%至 1115.64 元/克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前周五上涨 8.30% 至 4983.10 美元/盎司；现货方面，黄金 T+D 现货价格上涨 7.69%至1110.35元/克，伦敦金现货价格上涨8.31%至4981.31 美元/盎司。具体来看，上周特朗普政府就格陵兰岛问题对欧 洲八国发起关税威胁，同时还多次威胁军事干涉伊朗局势，加 之此前对委内瑞拉的霸权措施，这意味着地缘政治风险持续扩 大、全球经贸环境不确定性加剧，显著推升市场避险情绪，金 价随之大幅上涨。此外，由于市场高度警惕日本政府可能出手 干预汇市，上周五日本央行会议后日元剧烈反弹，日元对美元 汇价大幅上涨，引发美元走弱，也是推动黄金价格大涨的原因 之一。整体上看，受地缘政治风险加剧、美元走弱提振，上周 金价突破历史高位。 本周（1 月 26 日当周）金价料将继 ...

中盘转债开始占优，关注市场风格切换 ——可转债周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.25） 核心观点 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 ·· 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 翟恬甜 副总经理 曹源源 上周，财政部等五部门发布《关于实施中小微企业贷款贴息 政策的通知》，对符合条件的中小微民营企业按照贷款本金 给予年化 1.5 个百分点、期限不超过 2 年的贴息支持；证监 会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引》，强调 了业绩比较基准的表征作用、运用的严肃性和稳定性，并表 示将强化基金管理人的内部控制和管理，严格监管。 时间 2026 年 1 月 26 日 二级市场方面：上周，权益市场量能维持高位，转债市场在 小盘风格强势拉动下，延续震荡上行，估值有所压降，中证 转债继续跑赢上证指数 4.36pcts。结构上看，万得可转债 AA 级指数以 4.46%涨幅领跑各万得细分指数，中、高价转债， 中、小盘转债也表现较强，中盘转债跑赢小盘转债 0.27pcts。 转债 ETF 继续净申购 42.89 亿元，博时可转债 ETF 大幅增持 41.48 亿元，海富通上证可转债 ETF 小幅增持 1.41 亿元。 ...

作者 2026 年 1 月 26 日 日本央行按兵不动，地缘风险扰动全球市场 ——海外宏观周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.25） | | | 名称 | 2026/1/25 | 一周涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 作者 | | 上证指数 | 4136 | 0.84% | 4.22% | | 东方金诚 研究发展部 | | 深证成指 | 14440 | 1.11% | 6.76% | | | | 标普 500 | 6916 | -0.35% | 1.02% | | 分析师 徐嘉琦 | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 49099 | -0.53% | 2.15% | | | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23501 | -0.06% | 1.12% | | 执行总监 冯琳 | 股市 | 英国富时 100 | 10143 | -0.90% | 2.14% | | | | 德国 DAX | 24901 | -1.57% | 1.68% | | | | 法国 CAC40 | 8143 | -1.40% | -0.08% | | | | 日经 225 | ...

Report Summary 1. Market Conditions on January 21 - The overall liquidity situation was stable and loose; the bond market showed a moderately strong oscillation; the main convertible bond market indices rose collectively, with most individual convertible bonds posting gains; yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally declined, while yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies generally increased [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market was influenced by better-than-expected liquidity during the tax payment period, showing a moderately strong oscillation. The convertible bond market followed the equity market's upward trend [16][22] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: - The central bank aims to accelerate the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and promote high - quality development of the modern payment system [4] - In 2025, the industrial and information technology sectors contributed over 40% to economic growth, with various industries showing positive growth trends [5] - The tax policies for innovative enterprise CDRs during the pilot phase are extended to December 31, 2027 [7] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development plans to stabilize the real estate market this year and implement relevant systems [7] - **International News**: - Trump announced an agreement framework on Greenland with NATO, suspending planned tariffs on Europe [8] - **Commodities**: - International crude oil futures prices rose, and the international natural gas price increased by nearly 30% [9][10] 3.2 Liquidity - **Open Market Operations**: - On January 21, the central bank conducted 363.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 122.7 billion yuan [12] - **Funding Rates**: - The overall liquidity was stable and loose. DR001 decreased by 5.00bp to 1.321%, and DR007 increased by 0.04bp to 1.495% [13] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: - **Yield Trends**: - Due to better - than - expected liquidity during the tax payment period, the bond market was moderately strong. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 decreased by 0.05bp to 1.8335%, and that of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 decreased by 0.45bp to 1.9455% [16] - **Bond Tendering**: - Multiple bonds were issued on January 21, with details such as issue scale, winning yield, and multiples provided [17] - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: - Four industrial bonds had a price deviation of over 10%, including significant drops and a sharp increase [18][19] - **Credit Bond Events**: - Various companies had bond - related events such as bond extensions, cancellations of bond issuance, and performance announcements [21] - **Convertible Bonds**: - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: - The A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index increasing by 0.08%, 0.70%, and 0.54% respectively. The convertible bond market also rebounded, with the CSI Convertible Bond, Shenzhen Convertible Bond, and Shanghai Convertible Bond indices rising by 0.90%, 0.89%, and 0.90% respectively [21][22] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: - Some convertible bonds announced online subscriptions, potential downward revisions of conversion prices, and early redemptions [24] - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **U.S. Bond Market**: - Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally declined, with the 10 - year yield decreasing by 4bp to 4.26%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year Treasuries narrowed [25] - **European Bond Market**: - Yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally increased, except for the UK where it remained unchanged [27] - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued Dollar Bonds**: - Details of daily price changes of Chinese - issued dollar bonds as of the close on January 21 were provided [29]

央行连续 11 个月加量操作 MLF；资金面边际收敛，债市震荡调整 【内容摘要】1 月 22 日，税期走款，资金面边际收敛；债市震荡调整；转债市场主要指数集 体跟涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益 率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【央行行长潘功胜：继续维护好金融市场平稳运行，支持资本市场稳定发展】1 月 22 日，央 行行长潘功胜在接受采访时表示，2026 年，央行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，把促进 经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应， 为经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造良好的货币金融环境，为实现"十五五" 良好开局提供有力的金融支撑。潘功胜谈到，总量政策方面，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货 币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预 期目标相匹配。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。央行还将做好利率政策执行和监督，促进社会 综合融资成本低位运行。结构性政策方面，央行已在今年年初先行出台一批货币金融政策，对 结构性货币政策工具的政策要素作了优化完善。 【央行 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the credit bond issuance interest rate center further declined. After the launch of the science - technology board in the bond market in May, the issuance of science - innovation bonds significantly increased. The continuous growth of industrial bond issuance drove the overall credit bond issuance to reach a new historical high. The net financing of credit bonds increased significantly year - on - year, with only a net financing gap in March [2]. - The financing differentiation pattern between urban investment bonds and industrial bonds intensified in 2025. Urban investment bond issuance continued to shrink, while industrial bond issuance increased significantly driven by the surge in central enterprise bonds. From the perspective of issuer qualifications, high - grade bonds expanded, while medium - and low - grade bonds contracted [2]. - In 2025, the industrial bond issuance scale grew steadily. Most industries saw an increase in industrial bond issuance, and the issuance was concentrated in a few industries. The issuance was also concentrated among leading enterprises, and large central enterprises contributed significantly to net financing [2][4]. - In 2025, urban investment bond issuance remained in a contraction trend, and the net financing gap widened year - on - year. Most regions saw a decline in issuance and an expansion of the net financing gap. The net financing gap of AA - rated urban investment bonds narrowed due to the decrease in maturity volume, but the net financing of medium - and high - grade urban investment bonds in some regions turned negative [4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Credit Bond Issuance in 2025 1.1 Overall Credit Bond Issuance - In 2025, the credit environment was loose, and the bond market yield was low. With policy dividends, industrial bond issuance increased significantly, driving the continuous expansion of credit bond issuance and a substantial increase in net financing. The total credit bond issuance was 13.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. The net financing was 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 4924 billion yuan year - on - year [7]. - The monthly issuance rhythm showed a "low - front, stable - back" characteristic. Most months had a year - on - year increase in issuance, and only March had a significant net financing gap due to interest rate hikes [12]. 1.2 Issuance Interest Rate - In 2025, the average credit bond issuance interest rate fluctuated at a low level, and the center moved down. The average issuance interest rate was 2.15%, a year - on - year decrease of 35.96bps. The main reasons were the loose monetary policy and the narrowing of credit spreads [15][16]. - Throughout the year, the issuance interest rates of major - term and all - grade credit bonds showed two rounds of rising and then falling. The interest rate was affected by factors such as the tightening of the capital market, policy adjustments, and the stock - bond seesaw effect [22]. 1.3 Issuance Term - In 2025, the weighted - average issuance term of credit bonds was 3.43 years, a year - on - year decrease of 0.17 years. It showed an upward trend in the first half of the year and a downward trend in the second half, mainly due to the increase in financing costs and the significant shortening of the issuance term of central enterprises [23]. 1.4 Cancellation of Issuance - In 2025, the scale of cancelled credit bond issuance was 276.16 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.34%. The cancellation was mainly due to market interest rate fluctuations and the adjustment of the financing strategies of central and local state - owned enterprises [28]. 2. Credit Bond Financing Structure in 2025 2.1 Financing Performance of Different - Grade Issuers - In 2025, the credit bond market showed a differentiation trend of high - grade expansion and medium - and low - grade contraction. The issuance of AAA - rated, AA + - rated, and AA - rated credit bonds was 9.80 trillion, 2.95 trillion, and 1.10 trillion yuan respectively [35]. 2.2 Financing Performance of Different - Nature Issuers - The credit bond market continued the differentiation trend of shrinking urban investment bond issuance and increasing industrial bond issuance. In 2025, the issuance of urban investment, industrial local state - owned enterprises, central enterprises, and private enterprises was 3.27 trillion, 5.44 trillion, 4.56 trillion, and 0.68 trillion yuan respectively [38]. 2.3 Financing Performance of Different Bond Types - In 2025, the bond types with large issuance scales were medium - term notes, ultra - short - term financing bills, private placement bonds, and general corporate bonds. The issuance of general corporate bonds and private placement bonds increased by more than 10% year - on - year [45]. - Low - grade issuers had a significantly higher proportion of private placement bond issuance. AAA - rated credit bonds were mainly issued in public - offering varieties, while AA + - rated and AA - rated credit bonds had a high proportion of private placement bonds [48][49]. 3. Industrial Bond Issuance in 2025 3.1 By Industry - In 2025, industrial bond issuance showed the characteristics of growth in most industries, contraction in some industries, and high industry concentration. Four industries had issuance exceeding one trillion yuan, and the public utility industry contributed the most to the increase in issuance [50]. 3.2 From the Issuer Dimension - Industrial bond issuance was concentrated among leading enterprises, and central enterprises became the core force of bond financing. The top 100 issuers contributed 43.6% of the issuance scale, and large central enterprises had a significant increase in issuance and net financing [55]. 4. Urban Investment Bond Issuance in 2025 4.1 Regional Financing Performance - In 2025, most regions saw a contraction in urban investment bond issuance and an expansion of the net financing gap. Only a few regions had an increase in issuance or positive net financing [61]. 4.2 Grade - Based Financing Performance - In 2025, the net financing of medium - and high - grade urban investment bonds in many places turned negative, while the net financing gap of AA - rated urban investment bonds narrowed due to the decrease in maturity volume [62].

Group 1: LPR Pricing and Economic Indicators - The LPR for 1-year and 5-year periods remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively as of January 2026, consistent with market expectations[1] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to unchanged policy rates and stable market interest rates, particularly in the interbank lending market[2] - Economic growth is projected to rebound to approximately 4.7% year-on-year in Q1 2026, despite challenges in the real estate market and weakened investment and consumption[3] Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - There is potential for a comprehensive policy rate cut in Q2 2026, which may lead to a decrease in LPR pricing to stimulate consumption and investment[3] - The 2026 inflation rate is expected to remain low, allowing for a moderately accommodative monetary policy, including potential interest rate cuts[4] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts in 2026 may reduce constraints on domestic monetary policy adjustments[5] - Regulatory measures may be implemented to significantly lower the 5-year LPR to address high residential mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand[5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market rebounded, and the yield curve continued to steepen. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield approached 1.90%, attracting more allocation buyers. The stock market cooled due to regulatory measures on margin trading, and the central bank announced a structural interest rate cut, leading to a generally strong bond market with declining long - term bond yields. Short - term bond yields also declined, with a larger decline than long - term yields, steepening the yield curve [2]. - This week (the week of January 19), the bond market is expected to oscillate weakly. Although the Q4 2025 economic growth rate continued to decline, factors such as stable employment, rising prices, policy optimizations, and expected export growth in Q1 2026 suggest a rebound in GDP growth. With no clear incremental drivers, the bond market will continue to oscillate. The stock market's "spring rally" expectation may divert funds from the bond market, and the tax - payment month in January will put pressure on the capital market, but the central bank is expected to maintain liquidity. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.80% and 1.90% [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Bond Market Review - **Secondary Market**: The bond market rebounded last week, with significantly declining long - term bond yields. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures' main contract rose 0.27% for the week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield fell 3.58bp, and the 1 - year yield dropped 4.63bp compared to the previous Friday, widening the term spread [3]. - **Primary Market**: 44 interest - rate bonds were issued last week, a decrease of 14 from the previous week. The issuance volume was 4516 billion yuan, a decrease of 3116 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 1925 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 5417 billion yuan. The issuance volumes of Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds all decreased. The net financing of Treasury bonds and local government bonds decreased, while that of policy - bank bonds increased. The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable, with an average subscription multiple of 3.53 for Treasury bonds, 3.92 for policy - bank bonds, and 19.54 for local government bonds [16][17]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - **December Import and Export Data**: In December 2025, exports in US dollars increased 6.6% year - on - year, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points from November. The full - year export growth was 5.5%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous year. Imports in December increased 5.7% year - on - year, accelerating by 3.8 percentage points from November, and the full - year import growth was 0.0%, 1.0 percentage point lower than the previous year. The strong export growth was due to external demand, trade transfer, and growth in chip and car exports. The import growth was driven by export growth and increased oil import demand [19]. - **December Financial Data**: In December 2025, new RMB loans were 9100 billion yuan, 800 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The new social financing scale was 22075 billion yuan, 6462 billion yuan less than the same period last year. At the end of December, M2 increased 8.5% year - on - year, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and M1 increased 3.8% year - on - year, decelerating by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. The decrease in new loans was "strong in enterprises, weak in residents," and the decrease in social financing was mainly due to government bond financing [19]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - **Production**: High - frequency production data showed mixed trends last week. The blast furnace operating rate and daily hot - metal output declined, while the asphalt plant operating rate and semi - steel tire operating rate increased [22]. - **Demand**: The BDI index continued to decline, while the CCFI index continued to rise. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased [22]. - **Prices**: Pork prices continued to rise slightly, and most commodity prices increased, including copper, oil, and rebar [22]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net open - market capital injection was 11128 billion yuan last week [31]. - R007 and DR007 both declined. The issuance rate of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit fluctuated upward. The 3M national - share direct - discount rate continued to rise. The volume of pledged repurchase decreased slightly. The inter - bank market leverage ratio first decreased then increased, with an overall decline [32][35][36].

央行打出结构性货币政策工具的"组合拳"；资金面明显改善，债市偏强震荡 【内容摘要】 1 月 15 日，资金面明显改善；债市整体偏强震荡；转债市场主要指数集体上涨， 转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率走势分 化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《在中央城市工作会议上的讲话》】1 月 16 日出 版的第 2 期《求是》杂志将发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平的重要文章 《在中央城市工作会议上的讲话》。文章提出了当前和今后一个时期城市工作的总体要求，强 调要以新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届二中、三中全会精 神，坚持和加强党的全面领导，认真践行人民城市理念，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，坚持因地 制宜、分类指导，以建设创新、宜居、美丽、韧性、文明、智慧的现代化人民城市为目标，以 推动城市高质量发展为主题，以坚持城市内涵式发展为主线，以推进城市更新为重要抓手，大 力推动城市结构优化、动能转换、品质提升、绿色转型、文脉赓续、治理增效，牢牢守住城市 安全底线，走出一条中国特色城市现代化新路子。 【牢牢守 ...