Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints On September 3, the overall liquidity was balanced and slightly loose; the stock market decline boosted the bond market; the convertible bond market stopped falling and closed higher, with most convertible bond issues rising; yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally declined, and yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally decreased [1]. Section Summaries 1. Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held its second meeting to discuss issues related to the bond market. Since May, over 1.02 trillion yuan of science - innovation bonds have been issued. The 2nd private enterprise bond financing training class was held in Wuxi. As of June 30, 2025, the total management scale of 460 mother funds was 3484.5 billion yuan, a 23.7% decrease from the end of 2024 [3][4]. - **International News**: In July, U.S. JOLTS job openings dropped to a 10 - month low, with significant decreases in healthcare, retail, and leisure & hospitality sectors. The ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed fell to 1, hovering at the lowest level since 2021. Recruitment increased by 41,000 to 5.308 million, and layoffs reached the highest level since September last year [6]. - **Commodities**: On September 3, WTI October crude oil futures fell 2.47% to $63.97 per barrel, Brent November crude oil futures fell 2.23% to $67.60 per barrel, COMEX gold futures rose 0.82% to $3621.80 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 2.71% to $3.071 per ounce [7]. 2. Liquidity - **Open - Market Operations**: On September 3, the central bank conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 379.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds was 150.8 billion yuan [9]. - **Funding Rates**: On September 3, the overall liquidity was balanced and slightly loose. DR001 decreased by 0.01bp to 1.314%, and DR007 increased by 0.40bp to 1.442% [10]. 3. Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: - **Spot Bond Yields**: On September 3, the bond market strengthened. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250011 decreased by 2.00bp to 1.7475%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 decreased by 2.15bp to 1.8460% [13]. - **Bond Tenders**: Details of the issuance scale, winning yields, and other information of multiple bonds such as 25贴现国债54 were provided [14]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On September 3, 5 industrial bonds had a price deviation of over 10%, including "15 宏图 MTN001" down over 97% and "H9 龙控 01" up over 100% [14]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies had events such as bank loan defaults, subsidiary bankruptcies, and cancellation of bond issuances [15]. - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: - **Equity Market**: On September 3, the A - share market showed divergence. The ChiNext Index rose 0.95%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16% and 0.65% respectively. The full - day trading volume was 2.4 trillion yuan [16]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: On September 3, the convertible bond market stopped falling and closed higher. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.26%, 0.23%, and 0.28% respectively. The trading volume was 85.809 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.905 billion yuan from the previous trading day [16]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On September 3, "伟 22 转债" announced no downward revision of the conversion price, and "宏辉转债" announced early redemption, among other announcements [20]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **U.S. Bond Market**: On September 3, yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally declined. The 2 - year yield decreased by 5bp to 3.61%, and the 10 - year yield decreased by 6bp to 4.22%. The 2/10 - year yield spread narrowed by 1bp to 61bp, and the 5/30 - year yield spread narrowed by 2bp to 121bp. The 10 - year TIPS break - even inflation rate decreased by 1bp to 2.40% [21]. - **European Bond Market**: On September 3, yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally declined. For example, the German 10 - year yield decreased by 5bp to 2.74% [24]. - **Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds**: Price changes of Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds as of the close on September 3 were presented, including the daily changes, credit entities, and other information of multiple bonds [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On September 2, the overall liquidity remained balanced and loose; the bond market oscillated within a narrow range; the main indices of the convertible bond market declined collectively, and most convertible bond issues fell; yields on US Treasuries of various maturities generally rose, and yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies generally increased [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Bond Market News (1) Domestic News - The "Declaration of the Council of Heads of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on Further Strengthening Scientific and Technological Innovation Cooperation" was released, with member states planning to strengthen cooperation in areas such as policy communication, AI research, and resource integration [3]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Tax Administration issued a notice on tax policies for the operation and management of state-owned equity and cash proceeds transferred to enrich the social security fund, exempting VAT on certain income [4]. - The central bank announced liquidity injection data for August, with net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan, net PSL withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan, and net open - market repurchase injection of 300 billion yuan [4]. - The National Inter - bank Funding Center and the Shanghai Clearing House optimized the general repurchase trading and clearing mechanism in the inter - bank bond market, expanding the scope of eligible collateral [5]. (2) International News - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, contracting for the sixth consecutive month. New orders expanded, while output declined, and employment remained weak [6]. (3) Commodities - International crude oil and natural gas prices rose. WTI October crude futures rose 2.47% to $65.59/barrel, Brent November crude futures rose 1.45% to $69.14/barrel, COMEX December gold futures rose 2.42% to $3601/ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 0.27% to $2.990/ounce [7]. 2. Liquidity (1) Open Market Operations On September 2, the central bank conducted 255.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate. With 405.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal of funds was 150.1 billion yuan [9]. (2) Funding Rates Despite two consecutive days of net withdrawal by the central bank, the overall liquidity remained balanced and loose. DR001 rose 0.19bp to 1.314%, and DR007 fell 0.79bp to 1.438% [10]. 3. Bond Market Dynamics (1) Interest - Rate Bonds - Yields on 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 fell 0.10bp to 1.7675%, and yields on 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250215 fell 0.25bp to 1.8675% [13]. - There were no Treasury or CDB bond issuances on that day [14]. (2) Credit Bonds - Three industrial bonds and one urban investment bond had trading price deviations of over 10%. "H1 碧地 02" fell over 80%, "H1 碧地 01" fell over 75%, "H1 龙控 01" fell over 34%, and "20 永兴债 01" fell over 19% [15][16]. - Multiple credit events occurred, including debt restructuring of Kaisa Group, legal disputes of Rongqiao Group, cancellation of bond issuances by some companies, rating adjustments of some companies, and bankruptcy reorganization of some subsidiaries [18]. 4. Equity and Convertible Bond Market (1) Equity and Convertible Bond Indices - The three major A - share indices fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index down 0.45%, 2.14%, and 2.85% respectively, and the total trading volume was 2.91 trillion yuan. Most Shenwan primary industries declined [19]. - The main convertible bond indices fell collectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index fell 0.88%, 0.71%, and 1.14% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 105.714 billion yuan, an increase of 14.611 billion yuan from the previous trading day [19]. (2) Convertible Bond Tracking - Some convertible bonds announced changes in conversion prices, including Huayang Convertible Bond's downward adjustment, Baichang Convertible Bond's decision not to adjust, and Zhekuang Convertible Bond's expected trigger of downward adjustment conditions. Some convertible bonds were expected to trigger early redemption conditions [23]. 5. Overseas Bond Market (1) US Bond Market - Yields on US Treasuries of various maturities generally rose, with the 2 - year yield up 7bp to 3.69% and the 10 - year yield up 5bp to 4.28%. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries narrowed by 2bp to 62bp, and the spread between 5 - year and 30 - year US Treasuries narrowed by 2bp to 123bp. The 10 - year TIPS break - even inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.41% [24][25][26]. (2) European Bond Market - Yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally rose, with Germany's up 4bp to 2.79%, France's up 5bp, Italy's up 7bp, Spain's up 5bp, and the UK's up 4bp [27]. (3) Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - Some Chinese - issued US dollar bonds had price increases, such as those of the Chinese government, Sunac China, and Country Garden. Some had price decreases, such as those of Agile Group, Lenovo Group, and Pinduoduo [29].

避险情绪和降息预期双双升温，助推金价大幅上涨 黄金周报（2025.8.25-2025.8.31） 作者 核心观点 时间 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 分析师 白雪 2024 年 9 月 2 日 避险情绪和降息预期双双升温，上周金价大幅上涨。上周五 （8 月 29 日），沪金主力期货价格较前周五回升 1.52%至 785.12 元/克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前周五上涨 2.89% 至 3516.10 美元/盎司；现货方面，黄金 T+D 现货价格上涨 1.31%至 781.70 元/克，伦敦金现货价格上涨 2.24%至 3446.81 美元/盎司。具体来看，上周中东、俄乌以及泰柬地缘政治冲 突加剧，引发市场避险情绪升温，推动金价上行。此外，特朗 普试图罢免美联储理事库克，引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧， 加之上周公布的美国 7 月 PCE 数据符合预期以及多位美联储官 员释放降息信号，再度强化市场对美联储 9 月降息的预期，进 一步助推金价上行。总体来看，受避险情绪和降息预期提振， 上周金价大幅上涨。 本周（9 月 1 日当周）金价料将高位运行。本周五即将公布美 国 8 月非农就业报告，考虑到美国移民 ...

受短期影响因素减弱等推动，8 月宏观经济景气度回升 ———— 2025 年 8 月 PMI 数据点评 王青 闫骏 冯琳 1 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025 年 8 月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.4%，比 7 月上升 0.1 个百分点；8 月非制造业商务活动指数为 50.3%，比 7 月上升 0.2 个百分点，其中，建筑 业商务活动指数为 49.1%，比 7 月下降 1.5 个百分点，服务业 PMI 指数为 50.5%，比 7 月上升 0.5 个百 分点；8 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.5%，比 7 月上升 0.3 个百分点。 8 月 PMI 数据要点解读如下： 8 月制造业 PMI 指数比上月上升 0.1 个百分点，符合预期。主要是当月制造业供需两端同步改善， 其中，反映市场需求的新订单指数环比上升 0.1 个百分点至 49.5%，制造业生产指数则环比回升 0.3 个 百分点至 50.8%。我们分析，背后可能有以下几个原因：一是今年 7 月高温多雨天气对生产经营等经济 活动影响较大，8 月这一短期因素减弱，推动制造业 PMI 指数回升。这尤其体现在当月生产指数回升幅 度较大等方 ...

Economic Indicators - In August, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, while the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index and Composite PMI Output Index increased to 50.3% and 50.5%, respectively, indicating overall economic expansion[3] - The central bank reported that 77,536.2 billion yuan in various bonds were issued in July, including 12,226.5 billion yuan in government bonds and 13,496.8 billion yuan in corporate credit bonds[3] Market Trends - The bond market showed a strong overall performance, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 1.00 basis points to 1.7800%[12] - The convertible bond market experienced adjustments, with major indices declining by 0.36% to 0.51% on August 29, and trading volume decreasing by 237.44 billion yuan to 987.68 billion yuan[17] International Developments - The U.S. core PCE price index rose to 2.9% year-on-year in July, marking the highest level since February, driven by increased service costs[6] - In the U.S. Treasury market, the 10-year yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.23%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 3 basis points to 3.59%[22] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil futures fell by 0.91% to $64.01 per barrel, with an approximate decline of 6.1% for August, while natural gas prices rose by 0.94% to $3.016 per MMBtu[7] Monetary Policy - On August 29, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 7,829 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net cash injection of 4,217 billion yuan for the day[8][9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On August 28, the overall capital market showed a complex trend with the stock market strongly rebounding, the bond market under pressure and weakening, the convertible bond market's main indexes rising collectively but most individual convertible bonds falling, and the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds at different maturities diverging while the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies generally declining [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High - quality Development of Cities" was released, aiming to establish a sustainable urban construction and operation investment and financing system by 2030 and basically build a modern people - centered city by 2035 [3]. - In July 2025, the total issuance of local government bonds was 1.2135 trillion yuan, and the balance of local government debt at the end of July was 52.7627 trillion yuan [4]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation promoted the return of market competition to a benign and orderly track [5]. - From January to July 2025, the total social logistics volume exceeded 200 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% [6]. - **International News** - The annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the U.S. real GDP in the second quarter was revised up to 3.3%, mainly driven by business investment [7]. - **Commodities** - On August 28, international crude oil futures prices turned up, and international natural gas prices continued to rise [8]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On August 28, the central bank conducted 416.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net capital injection of 163.1 billion yuan [9]. - **Funding Rates** - On August 28, the capital market was generally balanced and loose. DR001 decreased by 0.11bp to 1.313%, and DR007 increased by 2.72bp to 1.540% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds** - On August 28, the bond market was under pressure and weakened. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 rose by 2.50bp to 1.7900%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250215 rose by 3.35bp to 1.8875% [13]. - Information on bond tenders is provided, including the issuance scale, winning bid yield, and other data of multiple bonds [15]. - **Credit Bonds** - One industrial bond's trading price deviated by more than 10%, with "H1 Bidi 03" rising by more than 104% [15]. - Multiple companies, including Qingdao Beer Group, Weihai Thermal Power Group, and HeSteel Group, cancelled bond issuances due to market fluctuations [16]. - Huaxia Bank's operating income in the first half of the year was 45.522 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.86%, and its net profit was 11.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95% [16]. - **Convertible Bonds** - On August 28, the three major A - share stock indexes rose collectively, and the main indexes of the convertible bond market also rose. The convertible bond market's trading volume was 122.512 billion yuan, an increase of 3.217 billion yuan from the previous trading day [17]. - Jinchengxin's convertible bond issuance obtained the CSRC's registration approval [18]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - On August 28, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds at different maturities diverged, with the 2 - year yield rising by 2bp to 3.62% and the 10 - year yield falling by 2bp to 4.22% [20]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies generally declined, except for Germany's which rose by 1bp to 2.70% [23]. - Information on the daily price changes of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds is provided, including the price changes of bonds of multiple companies [25].

Group 1: Event Overview - Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on August 25, 2025, citing "sufficient reason" related to alleged fraudulent behavior[1] - Cook, a Democratic appointee, was the first Black woman to hold the position and was seen as a neutral dove in monetary policy[1] Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's action challenges the long-standing tradition of respecting the Federal Reserve's independence, potentially leading to a more politicized monetary policy[2] - The dismissal may allow Trump to appoint a more dovish member, shifting the balance of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) towards a majority favoring looser monetary policy[5] Group 3: Market Reactions - Short-term effects may include a depreciation of the dollar, increased volatility in risk assets, and a rise in demand for safe-haven assets[2] - Stock markets reacted negatively, with declines observed across major indices, reflecting concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and future policy uncertainty[8] Group 4: Long-term Considerations - If Trump's control over the Federal Reserve strengthens, it could lead to a prolonged low-interest-rate environment, impacting stock valuations and increasing market volatility[10] - The weakening of the dollar may enhance U.S. export competitiveness but could also trigger global currency tensions and competitive devaluations[10]

Group 1: Report Summary - The State Council Executive Meeting on August 22 emphasized comprehensive measures to release domestic demand potential, and the central bank increased the volume of MLF renewals, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan in August. The bond market continued to face pressure, but short - term bonds showed signs of recovery. The convertible bond market followed the stock market's upward trend [1]. Group 2: Bond Market News Domestic News - The State Council Executive Meeting on August 22 aimed to better promote domestic demand through large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policies, and emphasized cracking down on subsidy fraud [3]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released the "Regulations on the Classification Evaluation of Securities Companies" on August 22, aiming to promote the function of securities companies and strengthen investor protection [4]. - The central bank announced on August 22 that it would conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on August 25, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan in August, marking six consecutive months of increased volume renewals [4]. - The central bank and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange solicited opinions on the "Regulations on the Administration of the Inter - bank Foreign Exchange Market (Draft for Comment)" on August 22, allowing the provision of inter - bank foreign exchange market data services on a commercial basis [5]. - Personal consumer loan subsidy policies will be launched on September 1, which is expected to boost the consumer finance industry [6]. International News - On August 22, Fed Chairman Powell suggested at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium that the rising downside risks to employment may require interest rate cuts [7]. Commodities - On August 22, WTI October crude futures rose 0.22% to $63.66 per barrel, and Brent October crude futures rose 0.09% to $67.73 per barrel. COMEX gold futures rose 1.05% to $3417.00 per ounce, while NYMEX natural gas prices fell 4.10% to $2.692 per ounce [8]. Group 3: Capital Market Conditions Open - Market Operations - On August 22, the central bank conducted 361.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 123.2 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount [9]. Capital Interest Rates - On August 22, with continuous net injections from the central bank, the capital market returned to a loose state, and major repurchase interest rates declined. For example, DR001 dropped 5.17bp to 1.412%, and DR007 dropped 4.71bp to 1.467% [10]. Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics Interest - Rate Bonds - On August 22, the strong stock market and weak primary bond issuance pressured the bond market, but the announcement of 600 billion yuan of MLF operations at the end of the session led to a recovery in short - term bonds. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 2.40bp to 1.7850%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250210 rose 2.30bp to 1.8760% [13]. - Bond issuance information includes details such as the issuance scale, winning bid yield, and multiple of special funds for various bonds [15]. Credit Bonds - On August 22, most industrial bonds' trading prices were relatively stable, with 2 bonds having a trading price deviation of over 10%. "H9 Longkong 01" fell over 23%, and "15 Zhongchengjian MTN001" rose over 55900% [16]. - Multiple companies announced credit - related events, including bond payment issues, financial losses, regulatory penalties, and account freezes [19]. Convertible Bonds - On August 22, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising 1.45%, 2.07%, and 3.36% respectively. The convertible bond market also rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond, Shanghai Convertible Bond, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indexes rising 0.95%, 1.05%, and 0.81% respectively [20]. - Some convertible bonds announced events such as proposed downward revisions of conversion prices, non - downward revisions, and early redemptions [25]. Overseas Bond Markets - On August 22, yields of US Treasury bonds across various maturities generally declined. The 2 - year yield dropped 11bp to 3.68%, and the 10 - year yield dropped 7bp to 4.26%. The 2/10 - year yield spread widened by 4bp to 58bp, and the 5/30 - year yield spread widened by 6bp to 112bp [26][27]. - On August 22, yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally declined. For example, the German 10 - year yield dropped 3bp to 2.72% [29]. - The daily price changes of Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds as of the close on August 22 showed varying degrees of increase and decrease for different bonds [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report On August 21, the liquidity situation eased, the bond market rebounded, the main indices of the convertible bond market closed higher, most convertible bond issues rose, yields of US Treasuries across maturities generally declined, and yields of 10-year government bonds of major European economies generally increased [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange launched a pilot program for green foreign debt business in 16 provinces and municipalities, aiming to expand the cross - border financing scale of enterprises investing in green development or low - carbon transformation projects and improve the facilitation of green foreign debt business [3]. - The Ministry of Finance answered questions on regulating the construction and operation of government - social capital cooperation (PPP) stock projects, focusing on ensuring the completion of ongoing projects [3]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that the Ministry of Finance will issue RMB government bonds in Hong Kong, with a total value of RMB 125 billion [4]. - **International News** - The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a three - year high, while the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 55.4, a two - month low. The preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 55.4, a nine - month high. The price index reached a three - year high [5]. - The US labor market cooled significantly, with the number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly increasing by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June 20 [6]. - Two Fed officials suggested that there may be no interest rate cut in September [7]. - **Commodities** - On August 21, international crude oil futures prices rose, with WTI October crude futures up 1.29% to $63.52 per barrel and Brent October crude futures up 1.24% to $67.67 per barrel. COMEX December gold futures fell 0.2% to $3381.6 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 1.59% to $2.807 per ounce [8]. II. Liquidity Situation - **Open Market Operations** - On August 21, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 253 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 128.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 124.3 billion yuan [10]. - **Funding Rates** - On August 21, the liquidity situation eased, and major repurchase rates declined. DR001 fell 0.99bp to 1.464%, and DR007 fell 5.40bp to 1.514% [11]. III. Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On August 21, the bond market rebounded. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 fell 1.90bp to 1.7610%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active issue 250210 fell 3.45bp to 1.8530% [14]. - **Bond Tendering** - Various bonds were tendered on August 21, with different issuance scales, winning yields, and multiples [16]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On August 21, the transaction prices of 6 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H1 Bidi 03" fell more than 33%, while "21 Shanghai Shimao MTN002" rose more than 17% [17]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Multiple companies announced events such as being listed as被执行人, failing to repay loans, and delaying the disclosure of semi - annual reports [19]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On August 21, the A - share market fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.13%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index falling 0.06% and 0.46% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market closed higher, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rising 0.42%, 0.31%, and 0.58% respectively [19]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - Some convertible bonds announced events such as approaching the conditions for downward revision of conversion prices and early redemption [25]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **US Bond Market** - On August 21, yields of US Treasuries across maturities generally declined. The 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 1bp to 3.74%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1bp to 4.29% [23]. - **European Bond Market** - On August 21, yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond rose 3bp to 2.75%, and yields of 10 - year government bonds of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK rose 5bp, 6bp, 4bp, and 6bp respectively [27].

Revenue Insights - In July 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.7% year-on-year, improving from a decline of -0.3% in June[1] - Tax revenue grew by 5.0% in July, significantly higher than the previous month's growth of 1.0%, while non-tax revenue fell by 12.9%[5] - The cumulative general public budget revenue from January to July showed a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a decline of -0.3% previously[7] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in July rose by 3.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from May[8] - Cumulative expenditure from January to July grew by 3.4%, slightly below the average progress of 54.4% over the past five years, completing 54.1% of the annual budget[9] Government Fund Performance - In July, government fund revenue increased by 8.9% year-on-year, although this was a decrease of 11.9 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Government fund expenditure in July surged by 42.4% year-on-year, despite a slowdown of 36.8 percentage points from the previous month[11] - From January to July, government fund expenditure grew by 31.7%, significantly outpacing the revenue growth due to accelerated issuance of local government special bonds, totaling 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[11]