Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The state continues to maintain a high - pressure stance on implicit debt supervision and emphasizes preventing "risks from risk disposal". The National Development and Reform Commission promotes the safe and healthy development of the low - altitude economy, and Jilin emphasizes preventing the "re - occurrence of arrears while clearing" of enterprise accounts [2] - The development of the low - altitude economy offers a direction for the transformation of relevant urban investment enterprises, but they need to proceed from local resource endowments and their own actual situations, avoid blind following, and prevent inefficient and repeated construction [5][10] - Jilin and Shaanxi's Xianyang have made positive progress in debt risk resolution and state - owned enterprise reform [5][11] Summary by Directory 1. News Review - **National Development and Reform Commission promotes low - altitude economy**: The NDRC held a special meeting on promoting the safe and healthy development of the low - altitude economy. Urban investment enterprises can rationally layout related businesses, but the low - altitude economy has no mature profit model yet, and enterprises should avoid blind investment [5][6][10] - **Jilin and Shaanxi's progress**: Jilin emphasized preventing "re - occurrence of arrears while clearing" of enterprise accounts and resolving local government debt risks. Shaanxi's Xianyang made positive progress in debt resolution and state - owned enterprise reform, with the enterprise debt - to - asset ratio decreasing by 2.72 percentage points compared to the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan" [5][11] - **Early redemption of bonds**: 19 urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance, involving 20 bonds with a total scale of 47.16 billion yuan, an increase of 20.12 billion yuan compared to the previous period [14] - **Cancellation or postponement of bond issuance**: 4 urban investment bonds were cancelled or postponed for issuance, with a planned total issuance scale of 9.50 billion yuan [15] 2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Local government bonds**: The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased this week. The issuance scale reached 251.183 billion yuan, a 8.37% increase from the previous period, and the net financing increased by 40.27 billion yuan to 150.499 billion yuan. The issuance of new special bonds exceeded half of the annual quota. The weighted average issuance interest rate rose by 3.40BP to 1.84%, and the weighted average issuance spread narrowed by 0.41BP to 9.95BP [16][17] - **Urban investment bonds**: The issuance scale and net financing of urban investment bonds increased. A total of 155 bonds were issued, with a scale of 98.495 billion yuan, a 10.74% increase from the previous period, and the net financing turned positive to 44.64 billion yuan. The average issuance interest rate was 2.20%, a 7.35BP increase from the previous period, and the issuance spread widened by 5.53BP to 72.00BP. Six overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 9.91 billion yuan, and the weighted average issuance interest rate was 5.15% [22] 3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Funding situation**: The central bank conducted 1726.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market this week, with 425.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 1201.1 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates mostly rose [28] - **Credit rating adjustment**: No urban investment enterprises had their credit ratings adjusted this week [28] - **Credit events and regulatory penalties**: No urban investment credit risk events occurred this week [28] - **Local government bond trading**: The trading volume of local government bond cash bonds was 404.193 billion yuan, a 3.48% increase from the previous period. Most of the maturity yields declined, with an average decline of 1.75BP [28] - **Urban investment bond trading**: The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 257.481 billion yuan, a 9.63% decrease from the previous period. Most of the maturity yields declined, with an average decline of 1.96BP. The spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA + urban investment bonds narrowed by 0.23BP, 1.65BP, and 0.15BP respectively [28] - **Abnormal trading of urban investment bonds**: Under the broad - based standard, 14 urban investment entities had 16 abnormal bond trades, with the number of entities, bonds, and abnormal trades all decreasing [29] 4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - A total of 53 urban investment enterprises announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., as well as changes in controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, and name changes [34]

房地产行业 作者: 中诚信国际 企业评级部 侯一甲 027-87339288 yjhou@ccxi.com.cn 杜志英 027-87339288 zhydu@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 贺文俊 027-87339288 wjhe @ccxi.com.cn 市场跟踪 专项债土地收储加速，行业延续止跌回稳 态势——2025年 6月房地产市场跟踪 "降准降息、公积金贷款利率下调"三箭 齐发，金融政策协调巩固行业企稳态势— —2025年 5月房地产市场跟踪 楼市"小阳春"如期而至，"好房子"时 代来临——2025年4月房地产市场跟踪 政府工作报告首提"稳住楼市"，坚持在发展 中逐步化解风险——2025年3月房地产市场 跟踪 法拍房成交率有望提升，助力新房市场企 稳——2025年1月房地产市场跟踪 市场交易明显升温，政策薪火持续加力 ——2024年12月房地产市场跟踪 房价现企稳迹象，政策加速落地继续保驾 护航——2024年11月房地产市场跟踪 重启货币化安置和土储专项债：止跌回稳 转向信号下的老路新履——2024 年 10 月房 地产市场跟踪 美联储降息与房地产新政：市场活力的新 希望——2024年 9月房 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the first half of 2025, China's bond market continued to strengthen its direct financing function, focusing on "improving quality and efficiency, serving the real economy." It launched the "Technology Board" of the bond market, increased targeted support for key areas such as technological innovation and private enterprises, strengthened requirements for issuance, trading, and valuation, promoted market standardization, and further advanced opening - up to promote the interconnection of domestic and foreign bond markets [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Key Areas: The "Technology Board" of the Bond Market Sets Sail, and Policy "Combinations" Inject New Development Momentum - **Policy for Technological Innovation**: Policies in the technological innovation field were intensively introduced. The "Technology Board" of the bond market was officially launched, supporting three types of entities to issue technological innovation bonds. The issuance scale of technological innovation bonds reached about 1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 86%. The risk - sharing tools and ETFs for technological innovation bonds made positive progress [4][6][11]. - **Support for Consumption and Sports Industries**: The bond market increased support for the consumption and sports industries. In the sports industry, relevant departments issued a guiding opinion to support sports enterprises in issuing bonds. In the consumption field, policies were introduced to support enterprises in service consumption areas to issue bonds [12][14]. 2. Weak Links: Policies Intensify to Release Positive Signals, and the Financing Situation of Private Enterprises Remains to Be Continuously Observed - **Policy Attention**: The central government deployed efforts to solve the financing problems of private enterprises. The "Private Economy Promotion Law" was officially implemented, emphasizing support for private enterprises to obtain direct financing through bonds [15][16][18]. - **Financing Situation**: Although the bond financing of private enterprises improved marginally, overall, it still faced constraints such as insufficient demand and high costs. The improvement of private enterprise bond financing requires time [21][22]. 3. Basic Systems: Adhere to the Main Line of Standardized System Construction and Promote the High - Quality Development of the Bond Market - **System Rule Optimization**: The bond market optimized rules for issuance, trading, and valuation. For example, it reduced bond trading and settlement fees, revised company bond review guidelines, and optimized bond valuation guidelines [25][26][27]. - **Risk Management**: It standardized debt - restructuring bond replacement business and improved the institutional framework of credit risk mitigation tools to enhance the flexibility of product creation [28][29]. 4. Opening - up: The Bond Connect Has Made Positive Progress, and Upgraded Measures May Accelerate the Opening - up Process - **Free - Trade Offshore Bonds**: There are expectations for the restart of free - trade offshore bonds, emphasizing the "two - ends - abroad" principle to support domestic enterprises' overseas financing and attract foreign investment [33]. - **Bond Connect Optimization**: The Bond Connect reached its eighth anniversary. The scope of "South - bound Connect" investors was expanded to non - banking institutions, and relevant mechanisms were optimized to promote the interconnection of domestic and foreign markets [34][37]. - **Bond Allocation Value**: China's bonds have good allocation value. Against the backdrop of Sino - US tariff frictions, they may attract more long - term allocation funds, and the bond market's opening - up level is expected to continue to deepen [38][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the credit bond issuance is expected to continue expanding, with the issuance scale possibly reaching its peak in the third quarter. The issuance and net financing scale of urban investment bonds may further shrink, while the expansion of industrial bonds and science - and technology innovation bonds will dominate the supply. The yield of the bond market may continue the downward trend, and the credit spread may still have room for compression. Investors are advised to dig into the investment value of high - grade credit bonds, pay attention to market fluctuations, and focus on investment opportunities in the consumption field, stable industries, and science - and technology innovation bond field [5][6][48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First - half Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.1.1 Primary Market - **Overall issuance situation**: The total issuance of credit bonds increased moderately, with a net financing scale of 971.083 billion yuan, showing a mild recovery. The issuance interest rate first rose and then fell, remaining at a low level. The term structure continued to optimize, with the proportion of medium - and long - term varieties increasing. The issuance scale of medium - term notes continued to expand, and the issuance scale of corporate bonds exceeded that of ultra - short - term financing for the first time [5][7][12]. - **Industry differences**: The issuance of industrial bonds expanded significantly, with a scale of 4.26 trillion yuan and a net financing scale of 1.11 trillion yuan. Urban investment bonds had a net outflow of 120.004 billion yuan, and the net outflow situation was obvious from March to June [17]. - **Innovative varieties**: The issuance scale of innovative varieties of credit bonds expanded significantly, reaching 1.090689 trillion yuan. The issuance scale of science - and technology innovation bonds increased explosively, reaching 879.619 billion yuan, and the scale of green - labeled bonds also continued to expand [24]. - **Issuer structure**: The credit bond financing still showed obvious subject stratification. Central and state - owned enterprises dominated, while the private enterprise bond financing achieved marginal improvement. The issuance scale of private enterprise credit bonds was 346.661 billion yuan, with a net financing of 337.27 billion yuan [27][28]. 3.1.2 Secondary Market - **Trading activity**: The trading activity of credit bonds declined, and the trading scale of short - term financing bonds decreased significantly. The total trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market decreased by 8.89% compared with last year to 27.64 trillion yuan [36]. - **Yield trend**: The bond market yield first fluctuated and then stabilized. The "asset shortage" pattern generally continued. The yield of treasury bonds and medium - and short - term notes mostly increased slightly compared with the beginning of the year [38][40]. - **Credit spread**: The credit spread mostly narrowed. The credit spread of medium - and short - term notes generally narrowed by 2 - 68bp, and most of the inter - grade spreads also narrowed [43]. - **Industry spread**: The spreads of all industries narrowed comprehensively. The real estate industry still had the highest spread, but it narrowed compared with the first quarter. The spreads of industries such as construction and automobiles narrowed significantly [45][46]. 3.2 Outlook and Strategy Suggestions for the Second Half of 2025 3.2.1 Financing Outlook - The credit bond issuance is expected to continue expanding, and the issuance scale may reach its peak in the third quarter. The issuance scale for the whole year is predicted to be about 16.3 - 16.7 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of about 3% - 6%. The credit spread may reach its lowest point in the third quarter, but there is a possibility of an "up - after - down" reversal in interest rates in the fourth quarter [48][49]. 3.2.2 Interest Rate Trend - The bond market yield may continue the downward trend. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may operate in the range of 1.4% - 1.7%. The credit spread of credit bonds may still have room for compression [51][53]. 3.2.3 Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to further explore the investment value of high - grade credit bonds, screen individual bonds with good credit quality and room for spread compression, and pay attention to market fluctuations for trading gains. Specific investment fields include the consumption field, stable industries, and science - and technology innovation bond fields [54][55].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Central Urban Work Conference points out a new direction for urban development. Special bond support areas may be further tilted towards urban renewal, green - low - carbon, safety - resilience, and smart governance. Urban investment enterprises can participate in urban renewal and smart city operations to accelerate market - oriented transformation [7][9]. - Jilin plans to issue 26 billion yuan of special bonds for small and medium - sized banks to support the establishment of a provincial rural commercial bank. In the future, more provinces may issue relevant bonds to support small and medium - sized banks and explore the feasibility of supporting other local small and medium - sized financial institutions [11]. - This week, the issuance and net financing of local government bonds and urban investment bonds both increased, with different trends in issuance costs and structures [16][20]. Summary by Directory 1. News Review - **Central Urban Work Conference**: Held from July 14th to 15th, it emphasizes "five transformations" and "seven key tasks". Special bond support areas may be tilted towards urban renewal, etc., and urban investment enterprises can accelerate transformation [7][8][9]. - **Jilin's Special Bond Issuance**: Jilin plans to issue 26 billion yuan of special bonds for small and medium - sized banks on July 22nd. More provinces may follow suit to support small and medium - sized banks and explore supporting other local small and medium - sized financial institutions [11][12]. - **Early Redemption of Urban Investment Bonds**: 18 urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance this week, involving 20 bonds with a total scale of 2.704 billion yuan [14][15]. - **Cancellation or Postponement of Urban Investment Bond Issuance**: No urban investment bonds were cancelled or postponed this week [16]. 2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Local Government Bonds**: 45 local bonds were issued this week, with a scale of 231.79 billion yuan, a net financing of 110.229 billion yuan. The issuance of new special bonds exceeded half of the annual quota. The weighted average issuance interest rate rose to 1.80%, and the spread widened to 10.35BP [16]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: 135 urban investment bonds were issued this week, with a scale of 88.943 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 3.301 billion yuan. The overall issuance interest rate was 2.13%, and the spread was 66.47BP. Four overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 4.467 billion yuan [20]. 3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Funds and Credit Rating Adjustment**: The central bank net - withdrew 22.65 billion yuan this week. On July 9th, 2025, Zhongzheng Pengyuan downgraded the rating of "22 Shenshan Investment MTN001" of Guangdong Shenshan Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. from AAA to AA+ [23][24]. - **Trading Volume and Yield**: The trading volume of local government bonds was 390.614 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.89%. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 284.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.16%. The yields of both mostly increased [24]. - **Abnormal Trading of Urban Investment Bonds**: 18 urban investment entities had 22 abnormal bond trades, with an increase in the number of entities, bonds, and trades [25]. 4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises 86 urban investment enterprises issued announcements on changes in senior management, legal representatives, etc., including changes in executives, legal representatives, directors, and supervisors; changes in controlling shareholders and actual controllers; equity/asset transfers; changes in fund use; cumulative new borrowings; and external guarantees [29].

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a rise in credit bond issuance, with a total issuance of 13,687.12 billion yuan in June, an increase of 5,283.58 billion yuan from the previous month, and a net financing amount of 2,559.96 billion yuan, up by 2,055.38 billion yuan [39][40][51] - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7, indicating a slight recovery, with the new orders index returning to the expansion zone at 50.2, suggesting improvements in consumer demand due to policy support [27][51] - The first batch of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs is set to launch on July 7, which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of high-rated innovation bonds and provide investment opportunities [8][10] Group 2 - The overall bond yield is expected to remain low due to a weak economic recovery, with the central bank maintaining a loose monetary policy and potential increases in fiscal spending [7][8][51] - The credit risk in the bond market remains manageable, with a rolling default rate of 0.28% in June, and only one new default subject reported [15][19] - The average issuance rates for various credit bonds show mixed trends, with short-term and medium-term bonds experiencing rate fluctuations, while the overall market remains favorable for issuers due to low financing costs [10][39][40]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In H1 2025, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds hit a three - year low, with negative net financing for four consecutive months from March to June. The credit risk of urban investment bonds slightly converged, and credit ratings were mainly upgraded. It is expected that the issuance scale from July to December will be about 2.4 trillion yuan, and the net outflow may exceed 100 billion yuan [2][12]. - The current urban investment financing policy is strict, and it is necessary to optimize the policy to support new investment space. Although the "package debt resolution" has achieved results, urban investment enterprises still face heavy debt pressure. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period will bring new opportunities and challenges to the urban investment industry, but enterprises face problems such as weak asset liquidity. The "platform exit" of urban investment may lead to new problems, and it is necessary to guide and regulate the transformation [7][8][9]. - The credit spread of urban investment bonds still has room for compression. It is recommended to allocate high - quality enterprise targets in strong regions and pay attention to new issuers of bonds during the transformation [11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Five Characteristics of the Urban Investment Bond Market Operation in H1 2025 - **Issuance scale at a three - year low, negative net financing at home and abroad**: The issuance scale was 2.77 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.15%. The net financing was - 120.004 billion yuan, with four consecutive months of net outflows from March to June. The overseas issuance scale decreased by 12.29% year - on - year, and the net outflow was 34.484 billion yuan. Only provincial and AAA - rated urban investment entities had positive net financing [2][17][18]. - **Overall decline in issuance interest rates, small decline for weak - quality bonds**: The weighted average issuance interest rate was 2.40%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.41 percentage points. The decline of weak - quality and low - level entities was less than that of stronger ones, and the AA - level entities' interest rates increased [30]. - **Long - term issuance trend, high proportion of debt replacement**: The weighted average term was 3.89 years, a year - on - year increase of 0.24 years. The proportion of private placement bonds rose to the first place. The broad and narrow debt replacement ratios reached 97.57% and 94.13% respectively [37]. - **Decline in trading volume, compression of trading spreads**: The trading volume decreased by 14.86% year - on - year, and the trading spreads compressed compared with the end of 2024 [42]. - **Deeper net outflows in non - key regions**: 13 provinces had a 100% debt replacement ratio, with 10 being key provinces. Jilin and Chongqing issued project - construction urban investment bonds. Key provinces had a total net outflow of 36.308 billion yuan, and non - key provinces had a total net outflow of 83.696 billion yuan [45]. II. Slight Convergence of Urban Investment Credit Risks, Upward - Adjusted Credit Ratings - **Convergence of non - standard default risks, decline in commercial bill overdue times**: There were 3 non - standard default events in H1, all trust product over - dues in Henan, Shandong, and Shaanxi. By May, 52 urban investment enterprises were on the commercial bill overdue list, with 100 times on the list, a year - on - year decrease of 10 enterprises and 17 times [56]. - **Upward - adjusted credit ratings, mainly in Shanghai, Hunan, and Guangdong**: 25 urban investment platforms had 44 rating adjustments. 14 entities had upward - adjusted main body ratings, and 2 had downward - adjusted ones. 27 bond items were upgraded, and 2 were downgraded [58]. - **Significant decline in abnormal trading volume and scale, frequent in Shandong and Guizhou**: 157 urban investment entities had 576 abnormal trades, with a scale of 23.332 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 76.34%. Shandong and Guizhou had relatively large abnormal trading scales [60]. III. High Maturity and Put - Option Pressures, Difficult to Reverse the Net Outflow Trend, Expected Issuance Scale of about 2.4 Trillion from July to December - **Maturity and put - option scale of about 2.58 trillion from July to December**: By the end of June, the maturity scale was about 1.85 trillion yuan, and the put - option scale was 72.7022 billion yuan (assuming a 70% put - option ratio). Heilongjiang, Gansu, and Yunnan had relatively high maturity pressures [64]. - **Slight decline in the proportion of early redemption, more than half of bonds in Liaoning were redeemed early**: In H1, 700 bonds were redeemed early, with a total scale of 126.284 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11%. The proportion of early redemption to the total maturity scale was 4.36%, a slight year - on - year decrease. Liaoning had a high early - redemption proportion of 54.39% [68]. - **Expected issuance scale of about 2.4 trillion from July to December, net outflow may exceed 100 billion**: It is expected that there may still be months with negative net financing from July to December, with a total net outflow of about 100 - 150 billion yuan. The issuance scale is expected to be between 2.34 trillion and 2.50 trillion yuan. The debt replacement ratio will remain high, and the financing entity level may continue to move up [5][70][72]. IV. Follow - up Concerns and Investment Strategies (1) Follow - up Concerns - **Optimize financing policies**: The current policies are too strict. It is necessary to optimize policies from the perspective of ensuring financing cycles and economic development, such as refining "list - based management" and relaxing "government letter" requirements [7]. - **Accelerate debt replacement and relieve pressure**: Although the "package debt resolution" has achieved results, urban investment enterprises still face heavy debt pressure. It is recommended to accelerate debt replacement and include some operating debts and government arrears in the replacement scope [8]. - **Seize development opportunities during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period**: Urban investment enterprises face problems such as weak asset liquidity. They need to seize opportunities during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, integrate resources, and control investment impulses [9]. - **Guide and standardize urban investment transformation**: The "platform exit" of urban investment may lead to new problems. Local governments need to guide the transformation direction and strengthen policy connection [10]. (2) Investment Strategies - The macro - environment is favorable for the bond market. The yield center may decline in H2 2025. The credit spread of urban investment bonds has room for compression. It is recommended to allocate high - quality targets in strong regions and pay attention to new issuers during the transformation [11][80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2024, the panda bond market continued to be hot, with the annual issuance volume reaching a new high, and the market is expected to remain active in 2025 [1][17] - The development of the panda bond market is driven by factors such as the low - cost financing advantage of RMB, the improvement of relevant systems, and the increase in foreign investment participation [1][2] Summary According to Related Content 2024 Review - **Issuance Scale and Structure**: In 2024, 44 entities issued 109 panda bonds, with a total issuance scale of 194.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 26.1%. The proportion of pure foreign issuers rose from about 20% in 2023 to nearly 40%. The proportion of bonds with a term of 5 years and above exceeded 20%, and the proportion of bonds with a single - issue scale of over 25 billion yuan rose from 25% to 50% [1] - **Regional and Industry Diversity**: Since 2023, panda bond issuers have covered five continents globally, with new issuers from South America in 2024. The issuer industries include finance, consumption, industry, etc., with new sub - industries such as pulp and original research drugs [1] - **Investment - side Changes**: The proportion of foreign investors and foreign banks in panda bond investment increased from 20% in 2023 to nearly 50% in 2024, due to RMB internationalization, good issuer qualifications, and yield advantages [2] 2024 Highlights - **BASF's First Panda Bond**: In June 2024, BASF issued a 2 - billion - yuan panda bond with a final coupon rate of 2.39%, using an optimized pricing and allocation mechanism [10][11] - **Suzano's First Panda Bond in Latin America**: In November 2024, Suzano issued a 1.2 - billion - yuan green panda bond, highlighting the deepening of China - Brazil bilateral financial cooperation [12] - **UOB's Return and Listing on SGX**: In October 2024, UOB issued a 5 - billion - yuan panda bond, and it was listed on the Singapore Exchange in November, the first panda bond to be listed outside the Greater China region [13] - **Beijing Enterprises' 10 - year Panda Bond**: In April 2024, Beijing Enterprises issued a 2 - billion - yuan 10 - year panda bond, setting multiple market records and forming a relatively complete bond valuation system [14] - **CapitaLand's Sustainable - linked Panda Bonds**: In 2024, CapitaLand issued two phases of panda bonds totaling 2 billion yuan, the first being a sustainable - linked panda bond from a Singaporean enterprise, which helps achieve sustainability goals [16] 2025 Outlook - **Issuance Scale**: The panda bond issuance scale is expected to remain high in 2025, with regular issuers likely to increase issuance frequency, issue long - term bonds, and diversify issuance varieties [17] - **Issuer Structure**: The proportion of pure foreign issuers may further increase, and more issuers from regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America are expected to enter the market [18] - **Investment - side Trends**: Foreign investors are expected to maintain high enthusiasm for investing in panda bonds due to the optimization of investment mechanisms, and the investment value of panda bonds is expected to be further demonstrated [20] Rating Market - In 2024, China Chengxin International maintained a leading position in the panda bond rating market, with a comprehensive market share of 54% and 70% in the pure foreign issuer rating market [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The China - Latin America and the Caribbean Community (CELAC) cooperation has entered a new stage, with deepening political mutual trust and expanding economic and trade cooperation. The issuance of panda bonds is an important direction for financial cooperation between the two sides, but attention should be paid to the sovereign credit risks in Latin America and the construction of a new sovereign credit rating system [1][2][6][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China - Latin America Cooperation Enters a New Stage - On May 13, 2025, the Fourth Ministerial Meeting of the China - CELAC Forum was held in Beijing. On May 14, a seminar on China - Latin America panda bonds was held, with representatives from China and Brazil participating [1]. - Latin America is rich in resources and strategically important. In 2024, the bilateral trade volume between China and Latin America reached $500 billion. By the end of 2023, China's direct investment stock in Latin America was $600.8 billion. China has 5 free - trade partners in Latin America, and the free - trade dividends are constantly emerging [2]. - China's political relations with Latin American countries have been upgraded. China has proposed initiatives that are increasingly recognized by Latin American countries, and more than 20 countries have signed Belt and Road cooperation memorandums with China [4]. 3.2 Promising Prospect of China - Latin America Panda Bond Cooperation - In 2024, 44 entities issued 109 panda bonds with a total issuance scale of 194.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 26.1%. The proportion of overseas investors increased significantly to nearly 50% [6]. - In November 2024, the first panda bond issued by a Latin American entity was successfully issued, setting a benchmark for more Latin American issuers [6][7]. - Chinese rating agencies play an important role in bridging information asymmetry between overseas issuers and domestic investors. However, they need to innovate rating methods due to the limitations of local ratings and geopolitical changes [9]. 3.3 Attention to Sovereign Credit Risks in Latin America - Sovereign credit risk is an important factor affecting Latin American entities' issuance of panda bonds. The deepening of China - Latin America political mutual trust and cooperation helps improve the sovereign credit strength of Latin American economies in RMB terms [10]. - In 2025, Latin American economic growth is expected to slow from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.0%. Different countries face various challenges: Brazil has fiscal problems; Mexico is affected by the US economy; Argentina has high inflation and debt; Chile is at risk of relying on single - resource exports; and Colombia has fiscal and political uncertainties [11].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoints - The successful issuance of the first panda bond in Latin America and Brazil by Suzano Group is a milestone in China - Brazil economic and trade exchanges, which is expected to attract more Brazilian entities to participate in the panda bond market [1][4]. - Zhongchengxin International rated Suzano Group's entities and the panda bond as AAA with a stable outlook, considering its strong business strength, profitability, and solvency, while also paying attention to some influencing factors [2]. - Zhongchengxin International upgraded Brazil's sovereign credit rating from BBg to BB+g in April 2024, and the Brazilian economy shows certain resilience and development potential in the medium - long term [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content A. Panda Bond Issuance - On November 15, 2024, "24 Suzano GN001BC" was successfully issued, raising RMB 1.2 billion with a coupon rate of 2.8%. It is the first panda bond issued in Latin America and Brazil [1]. B. Credit Rating of Suzano Group - Zhongchengxin International rated the issuer Suzano International Financial Co., Ltd. and the guarantor Suzano S.A. with a AAA credit rating and a stable outlook, and also rated the panda bond "24 Suzano GN001BC" as AAA [2]. - Suzano Group has a complete R & D system, integrated industry chain, high raw material self - sufficiency rate, low production cost, strong profitability, and good solvency [2]. C. Brazil's Economic Situation and Sovereign Credit Rating - In April 2024, Zhongchengxin International upgraded Brazil's sovereign credit rating from BBg to BB+g with a stable outlook [3]. - Brazil's economy showed strong resilience in 2023 and 2024, but may slow down in 2025. In the medium - long term, relevant plans and tax reforms are expected to promote economic transformation and upgrading [3]. D. China - Brazil Economic and Trade Relations - China is Brazil's largest trading partner, and bilateral trade exceeded $180 billion in 2023. China's cumulative investment in Brazil has exceeded $70 billion [4]. - The successful issuance of Suzano Group's panda bond deepens China - Brazil cooperation in the financial field and promotes the participation of Brazilian entities in the panda bond market [4]. E. Zhongchengxin International's Market Position and International Cooperation - Zhongchengxin International has an absolute advantage in the public - issuance market of panda bond ratings, with a long - term market share of over 50% and has underwritten multiple first - of - its - kind panda bonds [5]. - Zhongchengxin International actively participates in BRICS rating cooperation, serving as the Chinese contact chair of the credit rating group of the BRICS Business Council Financial Services Working Group since 2024 [6].