交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-29燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 6、预期：基本面上燃油价格走弱，缺乏刺激因素，同时上游原油涨势停滞，燃油同步走低，后续关注俄罗斯制 裁落地程度及中美贸易谈判进程。FU2601：2770-2810区间运行，LU2601：3200-3250区间运行 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构维持在近期水平，因含硫0.5%船用燃料油的现货价差走强至两周多来的最 小贴水。然而，市场消息人士称，近期充足的供应预计将压制低硫燃料油市场基本面，并在未来几周限制任何 大幅上涨空间；近期高硫燃料油炼油利润率的走强抑制了炼厂的原料需求；偏空 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油 ...

每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：煤矿产能区域性释放困难，加之内蒙地区整体产能受限，供应仍趋紧张。焦炭第二轮提涨 全面落地，炼焦煤市场情绪继续提振，焦企及贸易商进场拿货积极性提高，整体交投氛围良好，煤矿成 交继续改善，加之产地煤矿供应量有不同程度收紧，短期煤价支撑较强；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1330，基差88；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净多，多减增；偏多 6、预期：焦炭第二轮提涨落地，对原料价格有一定支撑作用，且焦钢企业仍在积极补库，对炼焦煤刚 性需求不减，但受限于下游利润有限，部分高价资源下游抵触情绪较强，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-29） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 豆粕早报 2025-10-28 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：2960至3020区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，美国释放贸易谈判进展信号和技术性买盘支撑，美豆千点关口上 方震荡等待中美贸易谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升， 美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，但十月进口大豆到港维持偏高位和现货价格贴水压制 盘面，短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2900（华东），基差-32，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存118.92万吨，上周125万吨，环比减少4.86%，去年同期122.65万吨， 同比减少3.04%。偏多 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of lithium carbonate is strong while demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - The fundamentals are neutral, the inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bearish [8]. - There are bullish factors such as manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Bearish factors include high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline and insufficient willingness of power battery ends to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.14%, higher than the historical average level. It is predicted that the production in October 2025 will be 89,890 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.99% [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,347 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.49%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,592 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.50%. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month and inventory may be depleted [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 78,206 yuan/ton, a daily - on - day increase of 2.03%. The production from it was at a loss. The cost of purchased lepidolite was 81,293 yuan/ton, a daily - on - day increase of 1.44%, and the production was also at a loss. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 130,366 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%, higher than the historical average level. The inventory of smelters was 33,681 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.75%, lower than the historical average level. The downstream inventory was 55,275 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.26%, higher than the historical average level. Other inventories were 41,410 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.89% [8]. - **Disk and Position**: The MA20 of the disk was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish trend. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [8]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Market Quotes Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of 6% spodumene increased by 2.84% to 906 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.53% to 76,550 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply - Demand Data Overview**: In terms of supply, the monthly production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc. showed an increasing trend in general. In terms of demand, the monthly demand for lithium - related products also showed certain changes. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in September 2025 was 87,260 tons, and the monthly demand was - 116,801 tons [17][34]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time. The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has shown different trends in different years [23]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed [23]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, recycling materials) have shown different trends [28]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) and the export volume have changed [28]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and capacity of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) have shown different trends [37]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide from China has changed over the years [37]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [39]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The production cost and profit of lithium compounds from different raw materials (spodumene, lepidolite, recycled materials) have shown different trends [42][44]. - **Profit of Different Processes**: The profit of processes such as lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonization, and lithium carbonate causticizing to lithium hydroxide has changed [44][47]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects have changed [49]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters has changed [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price and monthly production of lithium battery cells have changed, and the monthly power battery loading volume has increased [53]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [53]. - **Cost**: The cost of lithium battery cells has changed [53]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary precursors have changed, and the processing fee has also changed [59]. - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The capacity utilization rate and monthly production of ternary precursors have changed [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [62]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials have changed, and the processing fee has also changed [65]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production, export volume, import volume, and weekly inventory of ternary materials have changed [65][67]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price, production cost, and profit of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [70]. - **Production and Inventory**: The monthly production and weekly inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [73][75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed [78][79]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the dealer inventory warning index and inventory index have changed [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4718 - 4774. The cost is generally weakening, and the supply pressure has decreased this week, with a slight increase in production schedule expected next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. The report suggests continuous attention to macro - policies and export dynamics [6]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [9]. 3. Summary According to Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% MoM decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.57%, with no MoM change. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 316,280 tons, a 0.45% MoM decrease, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 150,360 tons, a 0.47% MoM increase. Supply pressure decreased this week, and production schedule is expected to increase slightly next week with fewer planned maintenance [6]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.86%, a 0.27 - percentage - point MoM increase, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 35.87%, a 0.61 - percentage - point MoM increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 41.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point MoM increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 72.5%, unchanged MoM, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 58.76%, a 2.47 - percentage - point MoM increase, lower than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [6]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 722.72 yuan/ton, a 1.30% MoM increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 560.46 yuan/ton, a 1.30% MoM increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2303.25 yuan/ton, a 1.00% MoM decrease in profit, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure [6]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4670 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 76 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 333,800 tons, a 7.35% MoM decrease. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 252,100 tons, a 9.02% MoM decrease. Ethylene - based factory inventory was 81,700 tons, a 1.80% MoM decrease. Social inventory was 554,700 tons, a 0.26% MoM decrease. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.6 days, a 6.66% MoM decrease, showing a neutral signal [6]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below MA20, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish signal [6]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's PVC market data, including prices, price changes, and inventory data of different varieties and regions, such as the price of the 01 contract, inter - month spreads, and various inventory levels [13]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The data shows the historical basis trend of PVC futures, including the relationship between the spot price in East China and the futures price [16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the historical spread trends of different contract months of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [22]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Materials - **Blue Coke**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production of blue coke in Shenmu over multiple years [25]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It shows the mainstream price in Shaanxi, cost - profit in Wuhai, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide over multiple years [28]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It presents the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price, monthly production of raw salt over multiple years [30]. - **Caustic Soda**: It includes the price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory of caustic soda over multiple years [32][35]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC's calcium carbide method and ethylene method over multiple years [36][40]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) of PVC. It also presents the cost - profit, production, and apparent consumption of paste resin, as well as real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, and some macro - economic data such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [42][44][50]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It shows the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC over multiple years [54]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method (Tianjin - Taiwan), and import spread of vinyl chloride (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) [56]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly supply - demand trend of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data from August 2024 to September 2025 [59].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 2025-10-28甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：内地方面，上游工厂库存不高，以及煤炭价格坚挺，成本端支撑加强，且当前产区甲醇价格已处于偏低水 平，对内地行情均有一定支撑。但同时当前内地整体开工仍处于偏高水平，局部地区如关中有一定供应压力。而烯烃利 润大幅挤压，当前成本压力明显据悉港口部分烯烃装置降负，对甲醇的负反馈逐步显现。另外港口库存居高不下，新一 轮合约周期即将开启，场内货源供应并不紧缺。业者对后市信心一般，预计内地涨跌空间有限。港口方面，受制裁事件 影响，伊朗进口船货卸货被无限期推延，在炒作支撑下，港口市场下行动力减弱，但基本面偏弱事实下，预计本周港 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年10月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 ， | 2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241 3万吨 环比降 ， . ， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 幅5 1% 同比增幅17 1% . , . | 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33 0777% 环比减少 。 . ， | | | | | 4 31个百分点 ， . | 全国样本企业出货29 066万吨 环比增加14 73% 样本企业产量为 ， . . , | | | | | 55 2万吨 环比减少11 . ， | 53% 样本企业装置检修量预估为67 6万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production schedule is increasing, and it is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8855 - 9075 [3][6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production schedule will increase in the short term and is expected to回调 in the medium term. The demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components will decrease in the short term and is expected to recover in the medium term. Overall, the demand shows a continuous recovery trend, and the cost support is stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 53655 - 55345 [7][8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week. The demand was 98,000 tons, with the polysilicon inventory at 254,000 tons, silicon wafers and battery cells in a loss state, and components profitable. The organic silicon inventory was 55,100 tons, with a production profit of -454 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 70.05%, which was flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 75,300 tons, and the import loss was 276 yuan/ton. The cost support in the dry season has increased [6]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 335 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 559,000 tons, a 0.53% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 167,700 tons, a 0.17% decrease. The main port inventory was 123,000 tons, a 2.50% increase [6][15]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The expected production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month. The silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, a 2.64% increase from the previous week, but currently in a loss state. The battery cell production was in a loss state, and the component production was profitable. The average cost of N-type polysilicon was 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 15,450 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the price of N-type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -1520 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a historical high [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is decreasing [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 0.34% to 0.84%. Spot prices of different types of silicon remained unchanged. The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.53%, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.18%. The main port inventory increased by 2.50%. The weekly sample enterprise production increased by 3.36%, and the production and operating rates in different regions showed different changes [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of various contracts increased, with increases ranging from 3.09% to 5.54%. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends. The monthly supply of polysilicon in China decreased by 1.29%, the export volume decreased by 30.00%, the consumption volume increased by 6.62%, and the import volume increased by 30.00%. The component production was profitable, and the domestic and European inventories decreased [17]. 3.3 Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon showed different trends over time [19][20]. - The price and basis of polysilicon also showed different trends over time [22][23]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of industrial silicon in different regions and at ports showed different trends over time [25][26]. - The polysilicon inventory also showed different trends over time [17]. 3.5 Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production of industrial silicon sample enterprises in different regions and the overall production showed different trends over time [29][30]. - The monthly production of industrial silicon by specification also showed different trends over time [31]. 3.6 Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang's oxygenated 553 silicon showed different trends over time [36][37]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets 3.7.1 Industrial Silicon - The weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon showed different trends over time [38][39]. - The monthly supply - demand balance also showed different trends over time, with different values for actual consumption, export, import, and other items [41][42]. 3.7.2 Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different trends over time, with different values for consumption, export, import, and supply [67][68]. 3.8 Downstream Market Trends 3.8.1 Organic Silicon - The production capacity utilization rate, profit, cost, and production of DMC in organic silicon showed different trends over time [44][45]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 also showed different trends over time [46][47]. - The import, export, and inventory of DMC also showed different trends over time [51][52]. 3.8.2 Aluminum Alloy - The waste aluminum recycling volume, social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, and import - export situation of Chinese unforged aluminum alloy showed different trends over time [54][55]. - The production, inventory, and operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloy ingots also showed different trends over time [57][58]. - The production and sales of automobiles and the export of aluminum alloy wheels also showed different trends over time [59][60]. 3.8.3 Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and demand of polysilicon showed different trends over time [64][65]. - The price, production, inventory, and demand of silicon wafers also showed different trends over time [70][71]. - The price, production, inventory, and export of battery cells showed different trends over time [73][74]. - The price, production, inventory, and export of photovoltaic components also showed different trends over time [76][77]. - The prices and import - export volumes of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coatings, photovoltaic glass, high - purity quartz sand, and soldering tapes showed different trends over time [79][80].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2025-10-28 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2320至2380区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求旺季过去，但库存维持低位支撑盘面，加上 中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期缺乏指引影响维持震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2480，基差145，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力空翻 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The stock market showed a widespread increase with higher trading volume the previous day. The Shanghai Composite Index approached the 4000 mark, and both the SSE 50 and micro - cap indices reached new highs for the year. There was a rotation of hot sectors, which is a positive sign. - The IC2512 contract had a discount of 124.99 points, and the IM2512 contract had a discount of 172.78 points, which is a negative sign. - The margin trading balance was 2.4398 trillion yuan, an increase of 59 billion yuan, indicating positive market sentiment. - The IH2512 contract had a discount of 2.73 points, and the IF2512 contract had a discount of 31.62 points, which is neutral. - In terms of the market trend, IH > IC > IF > IM, and all of them were above the 20 - day moving average, which is positive. - Regarding the positions of major players, the long positions in the IF contract decreased, while those in the IH contract increased, and the long positions in the IC contract decreased, generally showing a positive trend. - Due to the preliminary consensus reached in the Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the rebound in the technology sector after the Fourth Plenary Session, the short - term index is expected to rebound. It is recommended to reduce positions appropriately on days of significant intraday increases. The index is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend. Attention should be paid to the meeting between Chinese and US leaders on Thursday [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Index Futures Data**: The report provides detailed data on various index futures contracts, including contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividend yields, spreads, discount ratios, annualized discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining terms for the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [3]. - **Base and Spread Charts**: There are charts showing the base and spread trends of the SSE 50 and CSI 500 index futures over a long period, with data sourced from Wind Information and organized by Dayue Futures [4][7]. Spot Market - **Important Index Daily Returns**: Charts display the daily returns of important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300, Wind All - A, CSI 500, Shenzhen Component Index, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index, with data from Wind Information [10][11]. - **Style Index Daily Returns**: There are multiple charts presenting the daily returns of different style indices, including cyclical and non - cyclical indices, low - P/E, high - P/E, and medium - P/E indices, large - cap, small - cap, value, and growth indices, with data from Wind Information [13][14][16]. Market Structure - **AH - Share Premium**: A chart shows the trend of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index over time, with data from Wind Information [19][20]. - **Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE)**: A chart depicts the historical PE (TTM) trends of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index, with data from Wind Information [22][23]. - **Price - to - Book Ratio (PB)**: A chart shows the historical PB trends of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index, with data from Wind Information [24][25]. Market Fundamentals - **Stock Market Fund Inflows**: A chart presents the net inflows of funds into the A - share market and the CSI 300 index over time, with data from Wind Information [26][27]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: A chart shows the margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index over time, with data from Wind Information [28][29]. - **Northbound Capital Flows**: A chart displays the net inflows of northbound capital (Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect) over time, with data from Wind Information [30][31]. - **Stock Unlockings**: Although mentioned, no specific data or chart details are provided in the summary scope. - **Funding Costs**: A chart shows the trends of SHIBOR overnight, one - week, and two - week rates over time, with data from Wind Information [36][37]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: Charts show the turnover rates (based on free - floating market capitalization) of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index over time, with data from Wind Information [39][40][42]. - **Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: Although mentioned, no specific data or chart details are provided in the summary scope. Other Indicators - **Dividend Yield and Treasury Yield**: A chart shows the dividend yields of index futures and the 10 - year Treasury yield over time, with data from Wind Information [48][49]. - **Exchange Rate**: A chart presents the trend of the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate over time, with data from Wind Information [50][51]. - **New Account Openings and Index Tracking**: Although mentioned, no specific data or chart details are provided in the summary scope. - **Newly Established Fund Sizes**: Charts for the newly established sizes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds are mentioned, but no specific data details are provided in the summary scope.