周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 地缘风险变数再起，美元维持强势 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好维持高位，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数回 升，美债收益率升至 4.22%。美元指数涨 0.26%至 99.4，非美货 币多数贬值，离岸人民币涨 0.12%，欧元跌 0.34%，英镑跌 0.19%，日元跌 0.15%，瑞郎跌 0.22%，韩元、卢比贬值，新西兰 元、兰特、林吉特升值，比索涨近 2%。金价涨 1.9%至 4597 美 元/盎司，VIX 指数回升至 158，现货商品指数收跌，布油涨 3.5%至 67.6 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 地缘政治风险扰动仍在，特朗普对伊朗态度边际软化。周末特 朗普表示要对欧洲 8 国在 2 月 1 日加征 10%关税，6 月 1 日后提 升至 25%，直到达成完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛达成协议，引发 欧盟与美国冲突增加，预计会对股市情绪构成压制。美国经济 数据表现尚可，12 月 CPI 同比维持在 2.7%，符合市场预期，但 核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 2.7%，食品 和服务价格上涨是 核心推动因素，住房 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The majority of December's financial data exceeded market expectations, with various policies having mixed impacts on different sectors [1][4][25] - Gold prices fluctuated and closed lower, with short - term precious metal rallies slowing down. The US dollar is expected to continue its short - term recovery. US stock index futures are expected to be volatile during the earnings season but remain bullish overall. A - share index futures still have upward momentum, while treasury bond futures are generally bearish [2][13][17][21][23] - Different commodities have different trends. For example, coal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, iron ore has support at the bottom, steel prices should be treated with a volatile mindset, and the prices of various agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals also show different characteristics [30][32][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Paulson tends to keep interest rates unchanged in the next meeting, may cut rates slightly later this year, and expects inflation to fall to 2% by December. The US initial jobless claims last week were 198,000, lower than expected. Gold prices fluctuated and closed lower due to reduced risk - aversion sentiment and hawkish remarks from Fed officials. Short - term precious metal rallies slow down, and it is advisable to beware of correction risks and consider going long on the gold - silver ratio [12][13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US initial jobless claims last week dropped to 198,000, lower than all expectations. Fed officials have different views on inflation and interest rates. The labor market remains resilient, and the US dollar is expected to continue its short - term recovery [14][16][17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed's Schmid believes there is no reason to cut rates currently. Goldman Sachs' Q4 net profit increased by 12% year - on - year, and TSMC's Q4 earnings exceeded expectations, indicating strong demand in the AI chip industry. During the earnings season, US stocks are expected to be more volatile but remain bullish overall [18][19][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In December 2025, China's social financing scale increased by 8.3% year - on - year. The central bank cut the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools by 25BP, providing liquidity support to the market. The A - share market is expected to have upward momentum, and it is recommended to continue holding long positions [22][23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - December's financial data exceeded market expectations. The central bank cut the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools and conducted reverse repurchase operations. The impact on the bond market is mixed but generally bearish. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing up or betting on rebounds and consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [25][27][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On January 15, the price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable. The downstream daily consumption has been weak, and the supply adjustment has accelerated. The coal price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether coal mines will have an early holiday before the Spring Festival and the implementation of Indonesia's 2026 tariffs [30] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto and BHP will jointly develop 200 million tons of iron ore in the Pilbara region. The iron ore inventory at ports continues to accumulate, and the steel mills' restocking is weak. However, the molten iron is expected to recover moderately, providing support for iron ore prices [31][32] 3.2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - As of January 15, the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 69,100 tons week - on - week. The overall inventory pattern is acceptable, but the inventory inflection point is approaching, and the supply pressure is increasing. It is recommended to treat steel prices with a volatile mindset and hedge inventory at high prices if the price rebounds [33][34][35] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB estimates Brazil's soybean production in the 25/26 season to be 176.12 million tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous year but a 1 - million - ton decrease from the December estimate. NOPA members' soybean crushing volume in December reached the second - highest level in history. It is recommended to maintain the view of weak and volatile soybean meal prices and pay attention to South American weather, domestic auctions, and customs policies [36][37] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The basis quotes in the cotton market have increased significantly. In December 2025, China's textile and clothing exports increased seasonally month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, with textiles showing stronger resilience and clothing facing greater pressure. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival [38][41][43] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From January 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 18.64% month - on - month. The oil market was weak due to Indonesia's biodiesel policy and Sino - Canadian talks. It is recommended to wait for new drivers in the palm oil market and pay attention to the official results of Sino - Canadian talks for rapeseed oil. Short - term long positions can be considered at low prices if sentiment stabilizes and the production cut is significant [44] 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On January 14, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $43.33 per ton, and the social inventory of lead ingots increased. Starting from April 14, 2026, the LME will no longer accept the warehousing of some metal brands from two South Korean companies. The lead price is driven by strong macro factors, but the demand feedback is negative. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities at high prices in the medium term [45][46][48] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Starting from April 14, 2026, the LME will no longer accept the warehousing of some zinc brands from two South Korean companies. The zinc price rose significantly. The direct impact on the zinc fundamentals is limited. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions at high prices, wait and see for spreads, and consider positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets, but the driving force is not obvious [49][52][53] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Three departments held a symposium on the new energy vehicle industry to regulate the market order. Tesla's lithium refinery has been put into operation. The lithium carbonate futures price has a short - term correction. It is recommended to control positions and operate cautiously due to high market sentiment and exchange intervention [54][55][56] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - State Grid's "15th Five - Year Plan" investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the "14th Five - Year Plan." Codelco's Ministro Hales copper mine expansion project has obtained environmental approval. Trump has postponed the imposition of tariffs on key minerals. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [57][58][60] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - On January 14, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $105.98 per ton. The supply of tin mines is uncertain, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, and it is necessary to pay attention to December's import and export data and the recovery of consumption [60][61][62] 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of January 9, the US propane inventory decreased by 2.39 million barrels. The geopolitical conflict in Iran has eased, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [63][65][66] 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On January 15, the closing price of CEA was 78.50 yuan per ton, up 8.28% from the previous day. The carbon market is expected to be dull and the price to fluctuate widely in the current policy window period [66][67] 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The downstream start - up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted locally. The demand is stable, and there may be a seasonal restocking demand before the Spring Festival. The supply load may not be maintained above 80%. It is recommended to adjust with the cost end in the short term and try long positions at low prices in the medium term [68][69][70] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - This week, China's styrene production decreased slightly. The styrene price has risen due to unexpected maintenance and export increases. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical risks and US pure benzene tariff policies, and generally take a long - at - low approach, with the risk of excessive pure benzene imports [71][72][73] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of January 15, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers continued to accumulate. The supply has increased, and the demand has been hit by the cold repair of glass production lines. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium term and short far - month contracts at high prices [74][75] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - As of January 15, the inventory of float glass manufacturers decreased month - on - month. The glass price has been weak recently. It is recommended to short at high prices within the range of 900 - 1250 yuan per ton in 2026 and pay attention to potential supply - side changes [76]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and policy adjustments. Different sectors show different trends and risks, and investors need to pay attention to short - term fluctuations and long - term trends [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - **News**: The US imposes a 25% tariff on imported semiconductors; the inflation level is far from the target; US retail sales in November 2025 increased by 0.6% month - on - month [11][12][13] - **Comment**: Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, silver rose sharply. The Fed's willingness to cut interest rates decreased, and there was a lack of incremental funds in the short - term. Market volatility is expected to increase [13] - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to the callback risk of precious metals in the short - term, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to rise [14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - **News**: Trump said there would be a way to solve the Greenland issue; Fed officials signaled to keep the policy unchanged; the US Supreme Court did not rule on the Trump tariff case [15][16][17] - **Comment**: The US dollar index will maintain a volatile trend as the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short - term [18] - **Investment Advice**: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short - term [20] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - **News**: The US Supreme Court did not rule on the Trump tariff policy lawsuit; the Fed's Beige Book showed an improvement in the overall economy; the US imposed a 25% tariff on specific semiconductors [21][22][23] - **Comment**: Geopolitical events and tariffs affect market risk appetite. The US stock market rotates, but the upward trend is still supported by interest - rate cut expectations and earnings resilience [23] - **Investment Advice**: The US stock market will have greater volatility during the earnings season, but maintain a bullish view overall [24] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Hunan plans to use special bonds to purchase existing commercial housing; China's exports in December 2025 increased by 6.6%, and imports increased by 5.7%; the margin ratio for margin trading in the stock market was raised [25][26][27] - **Comment**: The stock market had a volume - based correction, but the long - term bullish trend remains, and the spring rally is yet to continue [28] - **Investment Advice**: Continue to hold long positions in stock index futures [29] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: The central bank conducted 900 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations; China's December import and export data exceeded expectations [30][31] - **Comment**: The bond market is generally bearish. Be cautious when chasing the rise and pay attention to short - hedging strategies [33] - **Investment Advice**: Be cautious when chasing the rise or betting on a rebound; consider shorting opportunities during rebounds [34] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - **News**: The price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable on January 14 [35] - **Comment**: Coal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate as downstream demand is weak, and the supply adjustment is accelerating. The implementation of Indonesia's 2026 tariff is yet to be confirmed [35] - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to whether coal mines will have an early holiday before the Spring Festival. Coal prices will continue to fluctuate in the short - term [35] 2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - **News**: Ukraine's Ferrexpo produced 6 million tons of iron ore in 2025 [36] - **Comment**: Iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate. Spot trading is okay, but steel mills are cautious about post - holiday demand [36] - **Investment Advice**: Iron ore prices will continue to be in a volatile range and difficult to break through [36] 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - **News**: From January 1 - 11, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 32% year - on - year; China exported 119.019 million tons of steel in 2025 [37][40] - **Comment**: Steel prices will continue to fluctuate. There was a rush to export in December 2025, but the export license system may suppress exports in 2026. The fundamental pressure is still large [40] - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a volatile trading approach in the near - term and pay attention to spot hedging opportunities during rebounds [41] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - **News**: China imported 8.044 million tons of soybeans in December 2025 [42] - **Comment**: Brazil's soybean harvest has begun with an optimistic production outlook. Domestic soybean imports increased in 2025. The spot price of soybean meal was stable with a slight decline, and downstream trading was active [42] - **Investment Advice**: Futures prices of both domestic and foreign markets will remain weak under the condition of a bumper harvest in South America. Pay attention to domestic reserve and customs policies [43] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - **News**: China's sugar imports in December 2025 are expected to be higher than last year; Brazil exported 740,000 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of January; the sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 33% in the first half of December [44][45][46] - **Comment**: The sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil decreased significantly in December due to the fast harvest progress and a decline in the sugar - making ratio. The market focuses on rainfall in the first quarter of Brazil [47] - **Investment Advice**: Zhengzhou sugar futures will fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the actual start of terminal stocking [48] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - **News**: Huatong Co., Ltd.'s hog sales revenue in December 2025 was 342 million yuan [49] - **Comment**: Near - month hog futures contracts strengthened in the short - term, but there is still pressure on farmers to sell hogs before the Spring Festival. Wait for high - volume stagnation or spot price weakness to short [49] - **Investment Advice**: Short near - month contracts at high prices or arrange reverse - spread strategies [50] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - **News**: Indonesia will increase the export tariff of crude palm oil to 12.5% from March [51] - **Comment**: The palm oil market fluctuated, with prices rising and then falling. The increase in the export tariff will add complexity to the market, and the B50 policy's suspension will limit the price increase [51] - **Investment Advice**: Palm oil prices will have short - term support, but the increase may be limited. Pay attention to high - frequency production and demand data from January 1 - 15 and consider going long if the de - stocking trend continues [52] 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: The trading restrictions and fee increase for the LC2701 lithium carbonate futures contract continued; Brazil's Sigma Lithium plans to resume partial production at the end of January; the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers expects new energy vehicle sales to reach 19 million in 2026 [53][54][55] - **Comment**: The exchange took measures to cool the market. The mine will resume production as expected, the demand is off - season but not weak. The key issue is the downward price transmission [56] - **Investment Advice**: The market is bullish, but beware of the risk of long - position stampede. Control positions and operate carefully [57] 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The LME 0 - 3 zinc spread was at a discount of $19.35 per ton on January 13 [58] - **Comment**: Zinc prices continued to rise. Geopolitical conflicts may affect zinc concentrate imports from Iran. The market is expected to remain high and fluctuate with a bullish bias [58] - **Investment Advice**: Consider buying on dips in the short - term for single - side trading; wait and see for spread trading; the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets has a good risk - return ratio but lacks a clear driving force [59] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: The LME 0 - 3 lead spread was at a discount of $43.81 per ton on January 13 [60] - **Comment**: Lead prices fluctuated and rose. The low - inventory risk has been alleviated, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting at high prices in the medium - term [61] - **Investment Advice**: Wait and see in general, and consider shorting at high prices in the medium - term for single - side trading; also wait and see for spread trading [61] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased year - on - year; Canada's Taseko Mines completed the construction of the Florence copper mine [62][63] - **Comment**: The Fed's January interest - rate cut expectation decreased, and geopolitical risks need to be observed. High copper prices suppress downstream replenishment. Copper prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level [64] - **Investment Advice**: Buy on dips for single - side trading; wait and see for spread trading [64] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - **News**: The US relaxed the export control of NVIDIA's H200 chips to China; the LME 0 - 3 tin spread was at a discount of $65.28 per ton on January 13 [65][67] - **Comment**: The supply of tin ore is uncertain, and the demand is weak. The high price suppresses consumption. Tin prices are expected to continue to be strong and fluctuate [68][69] - **Investment Advice**: Tin prices are expected to continue to be strong and fluctuate. Pay attention to December customs data and consumption recovery [69] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - **News**: The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased in the week ending January 9 [70] - **Comment**: The uncertainty of the Iran situation is high. If the situation cools down, the risk premium may decline rapidly. If the geopolitical risk eases, the oil price may return to the supply - surplus fundamentals [70][71] - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to the impact of the Iran situation on oil prices in the short - term [72] 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - **News**: Qingdao Jinneng's PDH Phase II shut down for maintenance on January 13 [73] - **Comment**: The Iran geopolitical event drove up prices, but high prices suppressed domestic buying interest [73] - **Investment Advice**: The prices of domestic and foreign markets are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term. Pay attention to the development of the Iran geopolitical situation [74] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - **News**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt increased [74] - **Comment**: The supply of low - price asphalt resources is decreasing. The demand is weak in the north, and the supply exceeds demand in the south. However, the rising international oil prices support the market [74] - **Investment Advice**: The asphalt futures market will fluctuate with a bullish bias in the short - term. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation [75] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - **News**: China's methanol port inventory decreased by 1.019 million tons as of January 14 [76] - **Comment**: The inventory decline was slightly faster than expected, but the unloading volume will increase next week. The geopolitical risk may increase, and the market is in a stalemate [76][77] - **Investment Advice**: Maintain a volatile view in the short - term, with the volatility range adjusted to 2,250 - 2,350 yuan per ton [77]

[T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-14 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国 12 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%符合预期 美国 12 月 CPI 符合预期，缓解市场通胀担忧，周期板块相对跑 赢，指数高位震荡。 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储穆萨勒姆：通胀水平更接近 3%而非 2% 综 金价震荡收跌，鲍威尔被刑事诉讼以及地缘政治风险推动的上 涨势头缓解，美国 12 月核心 CPI 略低于预期，但美联储萨勒姆 的讲话表明短期降息意愿不高，金价回吐涨幅。 日度报告——综合晨报 美国 12 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%符合预期 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 A 股放量回调，止步 17 连阳 报 A 股市场放量调整，前期热门的商业航天概念普跌，但创新药概 念涨幅较大。近期股市热度较高，监管层面出手稳定市场，A 股 或有震荡，但中期上涨趋势仍在。 农产品（棉花） USDA1 月报告:美国及全球棉花期末库存下调 USDA1 月报告下调 25/26 美及全球期末库存，但报告调整幅度 不大，未改变美棉偏宽松、全球松平衡的供需格局，且市场更 关注需求及新作种植意向，报告利多影响有限。 有色金属（锌） 1 月 12 日【 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum: Bullish; Palladium: Bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the price centers of platinum and palladium will move upward year-on-year. The reference price range for platinum is (380, 810) yuan/ton, (1500, 3100) US dollars/ounce, and for palladium is (340, 600) yuan/ton, (1350, 2280) US dollars/ounce [4]. - It is believed that the possibility of the US imposing additional tariffs on platinum is low, while the possibility of imposing additional tariffs on palladium is high. Before the tariff policy is implemented, the siphon effect of the US on global platinum and palladium will continue. With the support of tight spot supplies for futures prices, a bullish approach is recommended for platinum and palladium under the resonance of spot and futures. If the tariff risk eases, the strategy of buying on dips should be switched to selling on rallies [4]. - In terms of strategies, from a unilateral perspective, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to buy platinum on dips in the medium - term; from an arbitrage perspective, it is recommended to focus on the positive spread arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets. From a cross - varietal perspective, it is recommended to focus on the medium - term strategy of going long on platinum and short on palladium, but this strategy is more suitable for investors with high risk tolerance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Period - Spot Resonance as the Core Trading Logic in 2025 - The trading of platinum and palladium in 2025 revolved around the main logic of the market's concern about US tariff risks, supplemented by factors such as tight supply, improved macro - environment, and inflow of liquidity. Eventually, platinum and palladium experienced three rounds of price increases [14]. - The siphon effect of the US on global platinum and palladium spot led to a significant increase in Nymex platinum and palladium inventories. The long - term lease rates in Europe began to rise, and the spot market became tight. The resonance between spot and futures became the main trading logic in 2025 [20][29]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Primary Supply: Profit Repair of Mining Enterprises and Potential Inflection Point in Platinum and Palladium Mine Output - Historically, global platinum and palladium mine production has had a weak cycle. In the past five years, platinum and palladium mine production has shown a downward trend, with the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of platinum mine production at - 1.8% and that of palladium mine production at - 3.5% [33]. - In 2025, the top four platinum and palladium mining enterprises (CR4 reached 80%) all significantly reduced production. However, in the third quarter of 2025, the platinum and palladium production of some South African projects rebounded month - on - month, possibly due to factors such as price increases, high sensitivity to prices, and improved power supply [37]. - Different enterprises have different production outlooks in 2026. For example, Unipal Platinum is expected to increase annual platinum and palladium production by about 10%; Impala Platinum plans to produce 340 - 360 thousand ounces in the 2026 fiscal year, a year - on - year increase of about 3.7%; Norilsk Nickel's total platinum and palladium production is expected to increase slightly by 1% year - on - year; Sibanye - Stillwater's total platinum and palladium production is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year. New projects such as Ivanplats' Platreef mine and Jinchuan Group's Bokoni project are expected to contribute new production [40][41]. 3.2.2 Challenges in Eskom's Reorganization and External Risks Limiting the Resumption of Platinum and Palladium Mining Enterprises - South Africa still mainly relies on coal - fired power generation, and the electricity price is much higher than that in other regions. The high electricity cost has a significant impact on platinum and palladium mining enterprises [44]. - Eskom, the South African state - owned power company, has long - term financial problems and unstable power generation. Its planned reorganization may face conflicts of interest, which will hinder power grid reform, energy structure transformation, and reduction of electricity costs [49][52]. - In the 2026 fiscal year, Eskom's electricity tariff may continue to rise by more than 10% year - on - year, and South Africa may continue to face the risk of stepped power rationing. Considering various factors such as safety accidents and weather, it is expected that platinum and palladium mines will have marginal resumption of production in 2026, with an estimated increase of 8 tons in platinum production and 9 tons in palladium production year - on - year [54]. 3.2.3 Secondary Supply: Rising Automobile Scrappage Cycle and Price Increase May Stimulate Scrap Recycling - The main source of recycled platinum and palladium is the automotive sector, accounting for 70 - 80% of the total recycled volume. In 2025, the price increase of platinum and palladium stimulated the growth of recycling volume, but there was also a certain degree of hoarding behavior among recyclers [59]. - Domestic leading enterprises are actively building new recycling projects. Based on the automobile scrappage cycle, it is estimated that in 2026, the recycled platinum and palladium production in Europe and the US will increase by about 0.8 tons and 1.8 tons respectively, and the recycled production in China is also expected to increase significantly [60]. - However, if the recycling volume fails to meet expectations, such as low hidden inventory of platinum jewelry or hoarding behavior of recyclers, the expected surplus may not be realized [61]. 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Electric Vehicles Crowding out, Hybrid Vehicles Supporting, and Continued Substitution of Platinum and Palladium in the Automotive Field - The consumption of platinum and palladium in the automotive field is highly correlated with total automobile sales, but the correlation has weakened with the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. It is estimated that in 2026, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will exceed that of fuel - powered vehicles, and pure electric vehicles will crowd out about 15 tons of platinum - group metal consumption [69]. - Hybrid vehicles require higher platinum - group metal loads in their catalysts. In 2025, the sales of hybrid vehicles in China and the US increased significantly, which may support the demand for platinum and palladium [70]. - Policy factors such as the withdrawal of subsidies and the upgrading of emission standards will also affect the demand for platinum and palladium. Overall, the decline in platinum and palladium demand in the automotive field will slow down in 2026, with an estimated consumption growth rate of - 1.5% for platinum and - 3.5% for palladium. The demand for platinum - group metals in the domestic automotive field is expected to increase by 1% year - on - year [76][78]. 3.3.2 Jewelry and Investment Demand Expected to Increase under Bullish Expectations - In 2026, the downward trend of platinum jewelry demand may be reversed. Platinum may partially replace gold in the jewelry field, especially in China and India. It is expected that the jewelry demand for platinum will increase by 5% year - on - year, while the jewelry demand for palladium is expected to remain flat [82][87]. - In 2025, the investment demand for platinum and palladium increased significantly, especially in the exchange inventory. The investment demand for platinum and palladium is related to supply - demand expectations. If the liquidity in the precious metal market overflows to platinum and palladium in 2026, it may significantly boost the investment demand. However, if the US tariff risk eases, some allocation funds may take profits, and the investment demand for palladium may grow at a lower rate than that for platinum [87][90]. 3.3.3 Relatively Stable Industrial Demand and Difficulty in Exceeding Expectations in the Hydrogen Energy Field - Platinum's industrial demand is mainly in glass, chemical, and other fields. In the glass field, although limited by the real - estate cycle, it is supported by the wind power industry, and the demand is expected to increase by 3% year - on - year in 2026. In the chemical field, the demand is expected to maintain moderate growth [100][105]. - In the hydrogen energy field, the development of platinum and palladium is still limited by infrastructure, and large - scale application is still a long - term prospect. In other fields such as electronics, semiconductors, and military, there may be potential reserve demand for platinum and palladium [111]. 3.4 Fundamental Summary - Supply - demand balance: In 2026, the supply of primary platinum and palladium mines is expected to have marginal resumption, but the space is limited. The secondary supply is expected to increase significantly. The demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive field will decline, but there will be support from other fields. The supply - demand gap for platinum will narrow, while palladium will shift from a small shortage to a large surplus [112][118]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - Macro - environment: In 2026, the global interest - rate environment and corporate financing levels will continue to improve, which may be beneficial to platinum and palladium in the medium - to - long term. However, there are also complex macro - risks, such as US fiscal deficits, political elections, and geopolitical conflicts [119]. - Tariff expectations: The US is less likely to impose additional tariffs on platinum but more likely to impose additional tariffs on palladium. If tariffs are imposed on palladium, it will have a significant impact on the market [120]. - Trading logic and strategies: Before the tariff policy is implemented, a bullish approach is recommended for platinum and palladium. If the tariff risk eases, the strategy should be switched to selling on rallies. From a unilateral perspective, it is recommended to buy platinum on dips in the medium - term; from an arbitrage perspective, it is recommended to focus on positive spread arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets and the strategy of going long on platinum and short on palladium, but the latter is more suitable for high - risk - tolerance investors [122][134].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share trading volume reached a record high of 3.64 trillion yuan, but there are potential regulatory risks and market self - adjustment risks [2][22]. - The investigation of the Fed Chairman by the US Department of Justice has increased market concerns about the Fed's independence, affecting the prices of precious metals, the US dollar index, US stock index futures, and US Treasury bond futures [3][11][16]. - The supply and demand situation of various commodities is different. For example, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased, and the price trends of different metals and energy chemicals are affected by factors such as policies, production, and geopolitical situations [4][37][69]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The investigation of Fed Chairman Powell by the US Department of Justice is considered an excuse by Trump to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, which has increased market concerns about the Fed's independence [10]. - CME will change the margin setting method for precious metals, which may increase market volatility. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back before making long - term allocations [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - The investigation of Powell has led to criticism from key Republican members, and the market's concern about the Fed's independence has increased, causing the US dollar to weaken. It is expected that the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and Trump's tariff policy on Iran has affected the market. Although the market is worried about the Fed's independence, the risk appetite of the US stock market has moderately recovered. It is expected that the US stock market will continue to fluctuate strongly [18][20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share trading volume reached a record high, but some listed companies' statements cooled the market. It is believed that the probability of regulatory intervention is high, and the market self - adjustment is a risk point. It is recommended to continue holding long - term strategies for stock index futures [22][23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 86.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 36.1 billion yuan. Although the bond market has signs of a rebound, the long - term suppression factors still exist. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up and betting on rebounds and pay attention to short - selling opportunities [24][25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of Indonesian low - calorie steam coal remained stable, and the coal price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in January, with limited room for continuous rebound [26][27]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Tata Steel plans to acquire 50.01% of the equity of Thriveni Pellets. The iron ore market is in an oscillation, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate without a clear trend [29]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/HRC) - The steel price is oscillating strongly, but the contradiction in the steel market is gradually accumulating. It is recommended to treat the steel price with an oscillating mindset in the short term [32][33]. 3.2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen market remained stable. There is a certain demand for replenishment before the Spring Festival, but the increase in iron water production needs to be monitored [35][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased, and the USDA reports were bearish. It is expected that the price of soybean meal futures will continue to be weak [37][39][40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased in early January, and the production decreased. The inventory in December exceeded expectations, but the market has already priced it in. It is expected that the palm oil price will start a rebound [41][44][45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - The cooperation between Codelco and SQM is expected to achieve a production of 250,000 tons in 2026. The adjustment of the battery export tax - rebate policy is beneficial to the demand for lithium carbonate. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and be cautious for new long positions [47][48][49]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metal (Copper) - The copper premium in Japan reached a record high, and some companies have investment and cooperation plans. The short - term copper price fluctuation is expected to intensify. It is recommended to buy on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [50][53][54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metal (Nickel) - The domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in Indonesia increased slightly. The market is expected to be bullish, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [55][56][57]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metal (Lead) - The LME lead price was in a narrow - range oscillation, and the domestic social inventory increased. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [59][60]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metal (Zinc) - Heavy pollution emergency responses were launched in some northern regions. The zinc price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to buy on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [61][63][64]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metal (Tin) - The supply of tin ore is uncertain, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the tin price will continue to oscillate strongly [66][67]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - Trump's tariff policy on Iran has increased the risk premium of oil prices. Short - term geopolitical conflicts may support oil prices [68][69][70]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemical (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventories increased. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [70][71]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemical (Urea) - The price of urea is oscillating strongly. The supply is recovering, and the demand is in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended to wait for a reasonable valuation before going long on the 05 contract [73][74]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemical (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports decreased. The price of styrene is strong, but the profit margin is high. Attention should be paid to factors such as tax policies and oil price fluctuations [75][76][77].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current market shows significant structural characteristics, with various futures varieties having different trends. It is recommended to manage positions based on specific signals [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - In the precious metals sector, gold and palladium show bullish signals, while other varieties are mainly oscillating. In the non-ferrous sector, lithium carbonate shows a bullish signal, and other varieties are mainly oscillating [1][8] - The medium- to long-term upward trend of Shanghai copper has not ended. Key indicators support the continuation of the trend, and short-term sharp corrections are less likely [12] 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Rebar and ferrosilicon show bearish signals, and other varieties are mainly oscillating. European container shipping shows a bearish signal [17][18] - Rebar prices are mainly in consolidation. Technical momentum is insufficient, and it is expected to continue to consolidate above the support range in the short term [21] 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sector, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, crude oil, and LPG show bullish signals, and asphalt is mainly oscillating. In the chemical sector, pure benzene shows a bullish signal, synthetic rubber shows a bearish signal, and other varieties are mainly oscillating [26] - PTA is mainly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction. The upper resistance is in the range of 5,300 - 5,500 yuan/ton [1][29] 4. Agricultural Products Sector - Soybean oil, palm oil, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, eggs, live pigs, and red dates show bullish signals. Rapeseed meal, cotton, logs, and peanuts show bearish signals, and other varieties are mainly oscillating [35][36] - Sugar prices should be noted for the risk of decline. In the long-term downward trend, short-term rebounds are difficult to fundamentally reverse the decline [1][40] 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 300 futures, and CSI 500 futures all show bullish signals, while CSI 1000 futures are mainly oscillating [45] - CSI 500 futures maintain a short-term oscillating upward repair pattern, but attention should be paid to short-term shock/correction risks and position management [47] 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - 5-year and 30-year treasury bond futures are mainly oscillating, while 2-year and 10-year treasury bond futures mainly show bearish signals [52] - 10-year treasury bond futures are mainly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline. The short-term support range is around 107.06 - 107.39, and the upper resistance range is between 108.5 - 108.7 [54]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US non - farm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations, but the labor market maintained resilience. The market's risk appetite remained high, and there is a high probability of a pause in interest rate cuts in January [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,100 points, hitting a 10 - year high. Despite regulatory intentions to cool the market, the stock market showed strong momentum, and there is still upward momentum in the short term [2]. - Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher on Friday. The US non - farm payroll data in December was mixed, and the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts changed little. Geopolitical risks are favorable for precious metals, but the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index is not yet over [3]. - Indian sugar mills have signed contracts to export about 180,000 tons of sugar this season. Due to domestic price adjustments and the weakening of the rupee, the actual total export volume is expected to be difficult to reach the official quota [4]. - After the potential merger of Rio Tinto and Glencore, they will dominate the global copper supply. The macro - optimistic sentiment has returned, pushing up copper prices, but the short - term fundamentals are relatively weak, which may limit the increase [5]. - The number of US oil rigs has decreased, and oil prices have maintained a rebound trend. Concerns about Iranian supply have led to an increase in risk premiums [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US is discussing response plans for Iran. Trump will hear a report on Iran - related response plans on Tuesday [11]. - The US added 50,000 non - farm jobs in December 2025, lower than the expected 65,000. The unemployment rate was 4.4%, and hourly wages rose. The gold price was strong on Friday. The non - farm data was mixed, and the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts changed little. Geopolitical risks made precious metals stronger, and short - term market volatility increased [12]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the callback risk of precious metals in the short term [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump threatened Cuba to reach an agreement with the US quickly [14]. - Trump is considering multiple options to interfere in Iran, including sending a carrier strike group and launching cyber and information warfare [15]. - The non - farm data in December 2025 was below expectations. The market risk appetite rebounded, and the US dollar continued to fluctuate. The labor market situation is conducive to the rise of market risk appetite, and the US dollar will maintain a short - term oscillatory trend [17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will oscillate in the short term [19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump is considering multiple options to interfere in Iran [20]. - The US consumer confidence index in January reached a four - month high, and inflation expectations were relatively stable [21]. - The US added only 50,000 non - farm jobs in December, lower than expected. Although geopolitical risks are rising, they have not affected the risk appetite of the US stock market. The economic data is mixed, and the expectation of interest rate cuts remains restrained. It is expected that the US stock market will still operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner, but market volatility will increase [22]. - Investment advice: Expect the US stock market to experience increased volatility but maintain a bullish view [23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,100 points, hitting a 10 - year high. The A - share market had heavy trading volume on Friday [24]. - The State Council deployed fiscal and financial policies to promote domestic demand. Although there are regulatory intentions to cool the market, the stock market is strong, and there is still upward momentum in the short term. Whether the regulatory authorities will introduce more powerful cooling measures is an important indicator [25]. - Investment advice: The long - holding strategy for stock indices is still dominant, and each index should be evenly allocated [26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 9, with a net investment of 34 billion yuan [27]. - The inflation data in December slightly exceeded market expectations. Domestic policies are actively addressing the supply - demand gap, and inflation is expected to rise. In an environment of rising inflation, the bond market is generally weak. It is not advisable to chase the high price, and short - selling hedging strategies can be considered [29]. - Investment advice: Be cautious when chasing the high price; consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [30]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable on January 9. The Indonesian government plans to cut coal production by about 17.2% in 2026. The supply tightening expectation makes miners reluctant to lower prices. However, the daily consumption is not good, and it is expected that the coal price will remain in a low - level oscillatory state in January [31]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory state in January, and a continuous rebound is unlikely [32]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto and Glencore are in preliminary discussions about a potential merger [33]. - In January, the downstream steel mills' demand for raw material replenishment has increased. It is expected that the molten iron output will increase by 10,000 - 20,000 tons per week in the next two weeks [33]. - Investment advice: The raw materials are expected to remain in a relatively strong oscillatory state before the Spring Festival. Pay attention to policy changes. The inventory of finished products is at a moderate level, which restricts the upward space [34]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills has rebounded to 2.295 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate have increased, while the profit rate has decreased [35]. - In 2025, China's new ship orders were 1,421, and the sales volume of excavators was 235,300. After the New Year's Day, the five major varieties of steel products began to accumulate inventory. The demand for rebar has decreased seasonally, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has remained resilient, but the inventory pressure is relatively high. The steel price trend is not clear in the short term [38]. - Investment advice: Adopt an oscillatory approach to steel prices in the short term [39]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 10.3 million tons and may decrease to 10 million tons next year. As of January 7, Thailand's sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a year - on - year decrease [40]. - Indian sugar mills have signed contracts to export about 180,000 tons of sugar this season. Due to price and exchange - rate factors, some sugar mills are exporting at a loss. It is expected that India's actual sugar export volume will be difficult to reach the official quota. The upside of the external market is limited [42]. - Investment advice: In Guangxi, the sugar - pressing season is in full swing, and the new sugar supply is increasing. The upside of the futures market is limited. Pay attention to the actual stocking demand before the Spring Festival [43]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Vietnam's textile and clothing exports increased by 5.6% in 2025, but slightly missed the target [44]. - As of January 8, the national cotton processing rate was 94.5%, and the sales rate was 55.6%. The US cotton export signing rate is still lagging. It is expected that the external market will remain in a low - level oscillatory state in the short term [45]. - Investment advice: Xinjiang's cotton - ginning factories are reluctant to sell at low prices. The downstream textile enterprises' demand for raw materials provides support for cotton prices, but the subsequent restocking demand is not strong. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate before the Spring Festival, with limited downside. The long - term outlook remains bullish [47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the second week of 2026, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.7658 million tons, and the estimated crushing volume in the third week is 2.082 million tons [48]. - The oil market continued to oscillate, and palm oil rebounded slightly. The market is waiting for the MPOB report. The situation of the China - Canada talks is uncertain [48]. - Investment advice: The palm oil price is expected to continue an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. Pay attention to the January high - frequency data and Indonesia's palm oil export tax increase news [49]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In the second week of 2026, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.7658 million tons, and the estimated crushing volume in the third week is 2.082 million tons. An auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans will be held on January 13 [50]. - The soybean meal futures price rose first and then fell. Pay attention to the USDA monthly supply - demand report and quarterly inventory report on January 12 [51]. - Investment advice: Continue to pay attention to the state reserve and customs policies. The supply - demand situation does not support a significant increase in the May contract of soybean meal unless there is a major abnormal reduction in South American production [51]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Rio Tinto and Glencore are in preliminary discussions about a potential merger, which may create a diversified mining giant and dominate the global copper supply. Recent copper prices have soared due to supply shortages [53]. - Chile's national copper production in November decreased by 3%. The production of some major mines also changed. The macro - optimistic sentiment is pushing up copper prices, but the short - term fundamentals are relatively weak, which may limit the increase [54]. - Investment advice: From a unilateral perspective, continue to recommend buying on dips. From an arbitrage perspective, it is advisable to wait and see [56]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products will be adjusted. It is expected that there will be a wave of rush - to - export in Q1 2026, but it is negative for demand in the whole year. The price of polysilicon may oscillate between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton in the short term [57]. - Investment advice: During the rush - to - export period, the polysilicon price may remain stable if the alliance exists. After the rush - to - export, the price may face pressure again [58]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The national photovoltaic power generation utilization rate in November 2025 was 93.7%. The supply and demand of industrial silicon need to pay attention to the demand side. The supply and demand are in a tight balance in January - February, and there may be significant inventory accumulation after March [59]. - Investment advice: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon is not significant. It is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The export tax rebate policy for battery products will be adjusted. It is expected to lead to a short - term rush - to - export, which is beneficial to lithium carbonate. The lithium salt price is expected to continue to rise. The inventory is accumulating in the off - season, but the demand is not weak [61]. - Investment advice: Hold the previous long positions, and be cautious when opening new long positions [62]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Lunnon Metals has obtained the final approval for the Lady Herial gold - nickel open - pit mine. The futures market shows increased competition between industrial and speculative funds. The export tax rebate policy adjustment is beneficial to short - term nickel consumption. The overall price is likely to rise, and there may be a structural shortage of intermediates [63]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips. Continue to hold the positions of selling out - of - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options. Be cautious when chasing the high price, and closely monitor the quota release [64]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On January 8, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $43.39/ton. The primary lead smelting operation was oscillating, and the secondary lead refinery's inventory reached a high level. The demand is weak, and the social inventory is expected to rise. There is a risk of short - term price increase due to low inventory [66]. - Investment advice: Wait for opportunities to short on rallies. It is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage [67]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On January 8, the LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $42.57/ton. The Venezuela event may expand, and the zinc concentrate TC is expected to remain weak. The zinc demand is weak, and the social inventory is expected to rise. The zinc price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [68]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips in the short term. Wait and see for the month - spread arbitrage. The internal - external positive arbitrage has a good risk - return ratio, but it depends on the inflow of bonded - area inventory [69]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - In 2025, Shanghai's sales volume of trade - in goods exceeded 121.2 billion yuan. The market supervision department will accelerate the formulation of relevant national standards. The global tin inventory decreased last week, and the supply is uncertain. The demand is weak, and the high price suppresses consumption [70]. - Investment advice: It is expected that the tin price will continue to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the December customs data and the recovery of the consumption side [74]. 2.16 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - On January 9, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 89.56 euros/ton, up 1.55% from the previous day. The EU carbon price continued to oscillate last week. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the short - term sentiment is still cautious [75]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will oscillate strongly in the short term [76]. 2.17 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreased to 409 as of January 9. Oil prices rose in the second half of last week. The market is not overly worried about Venezuela's supply disruption, but concerns about Iran's supply have increased. Geopolitical risks may lead to a short - term increase in risk premiums, but the high export volume and potential inventory accumulation may suppress oil prices [77]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the risk premium of oil prices in the short term [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading activity in the commodity options market continued to increase this week, with daily average trading volume reaching 9.41 million lots and daily average open interest at 8.63 million lots, showing week - on - week changes of +15.16% and +20.23% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][7]. - Most commodity option underlying assets rose this week. High - gain varieties included lithium carbonate (+17.96%), silver (+9.70%), tin (+9.17%); high - loss varieties included polysilicon (-11.43%) and industrial silicon (-1.64%) [2][14]. - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. Varieties with high implied volatility are at historical highs, suggesting caution against unilateral risks and attention to short - volatility opportunities; urea, with low implied volatility, has high cost - effectiveness for buying options [2][14]. - Different varieties show different market sentiment. Some have high PCR values, indicating a concentrated short - term or long - term bearish sentiment, while others have low PCR values, indicating a concentrated bullish sentiment [3][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - This week (2026.01.05 - 2026.01.09), the daily average trading volume was 9.41 million lots, and the daily average open interest was 8.63 million lots, with week - on - week changes of +15.16% and +20.23% respectively [1][7]. - Actively traded varieties included lithium carbonate (930,000 lots), glass (820,000 lots), and PTA (690,000 lots). Varieties with significant trading volume growth were aluminum alloy (+198%), industrial silicon (+171%), and crude oil (+161%); those with significant decline were p - xylene (-93%) and silver (-52%) [1][7]. - High - open - interest varieties were glass (680,000 lots), soda ash (570,000 lots), and PTA (460,000 lots). Asphalt had a rapid week - on - week increase in open interest (+142%) [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Key Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Asset Price Movements - Most underlying assets of commodity options rose this week. High - gain varieties were lithium carbonate (+17.96%), silver (+9.70%), tin (+9.17%); high - loss varieties were polysilicon (-11.43%) and industrial silicon (-1.64%) [2][14]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. 52 varieties' current implied volatility was above the 50th percentile of the past year. Varieties with significant increases in implied volatility included nickel (+13.51pct), aluminum (+12.05pct), silver (+10.64pct), lithium carbonate (+10.44pct), and tin (+10.36pct) [2][14]. - Varieties with high implied volatility at historical highs included non - ferrous metals, corn, plastics, PTA, etc.; those with low implied volatility at historical lows included urea [2][14]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - Varieties such as lithium carbonate, staple fiber, rapeseed meal, and tin had high trading volume PCR values, indicating a concentrated short - term bearish sentiment; varieties like live pigs, crude oil, iron ore, and rebar had low trading volume PCR values, indicating a concentrated bullish sentiment [3][15]. - Varieties such as lithium carbonate, silver, p - xylene, and rapeseed meal had high open - interest PCR values, indicating a high - level bearish sentiment; varieties like palm oil, ethylene glycol, live pigs, and crude oil had low open - interest PCR values, indicating a bullish sentiment [3][15]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Major Varieties - This chapter presents key data of major varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. 3.3.1 Energy - Data on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of energy varieties such as crude oil, LPG, asphalt, fuel oil, etc., are presented in the report [16]. 3.3.2 Chemicals - For PTA,烧碱, glass, soda ash and other chemical varieties, data on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [16][18]. 3.3.3 Precious Metals - Data on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of precious metals such as silver and gold are presented [16][18]. 3.3.4 Ferrous Metals - For iron ore, manganese silicon and other ferrous metal varieties, data on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [16][18]. 3.3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - For copper, aluminum and other non - ferrous metal varieties, data on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are presented [16][18]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - For soybean meal, palm oil, cotton and other agricultural products, data on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [16][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the Treasury bond futures market, last week all Treasury bond futures contracts closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts dropping by 0.04%, 0.08%, 0.12%, and 0.07% respectively. The basis of each variety was differentiated. The CTD bond basis of the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds showed different relationships with the seasonal level. The 12 - month inflation data exceeded market expectations, affecting the bond market trend. For different - term Treasury bonds, different factors had different Sharpe ratios in 2025 [6]. - In the domestic commodity market in the first week of 2026, it generally rose, with lithium carbonate leading the rise and polysilicon leading the decline. Tin and coking coal had a rise of over 6%. Different commodity factors had obvious performance differences. The term - structure and basis - type factors almost closed flat, the volume - price trend - type factors had a return of over 0.5%, the value - type and volatility - type factors rose slightly, and the warrant - type factors had a decline of over 0.5%. Due to external market disturbances, the volatility of commodity factor returns increased. It is recommended that investors focus on commodity factors with long - term expected return capabilities, adopt a balanced allocation approach, and prevent risks [25]. - For the commodity tracking strategies, different strategies had different performance indicators such as annualized return, Sharpe ratio, Calmar ratio, and maximum drawdown. Among them, the Long CWFT & Short CWFT strategy had the best performance last week and so far this year, with a return of 0.53%. The equal - weighted composite strategy of the cross - sectional strategies had an annualized return of 12.6%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.79, a Calmar of 1.71, a maximum drawdown of - 7.38%, a recent one - week return of 0.62%, and a return of 0.62% so far this year [26][47]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Market Performance Last Week**: All Treasury bond futures contracts closed down. The 30 - year main contract dropped by 0.04%, the 10 - year by 0.08%, the 5 - year by 0.12%, and the 2 - year by 0.07%. The basis of each variety was differentiated. The 10 - year CTD bond was 250018, with a basis of about 0.09 yuan on the 31st, in line with the seasonal level; the 30 - year CTD bond was 210005, with a basis of 0.23 yuan on the 31st, lower than the seasonal level [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: The 12 - month inflation data exceeded market expectations. The bond market weakened in the early session on Friday last week. It strengthened briefly around the primary market issuance but finally declined with the strong performance of the stock market [6]. - **Factor Performance in 2025**: For the 10 - year Treasury bond, the factors ranked by Sharpe ratio were the basis factor, risk asset, and member position, with Sharpe ratios of 1.68, 1.93, and 0.59 respectively; for the 5 - year Treasury bond, they were high - frequency capital flow, intraday volume - price, risk asset, member position, and basis factor, with Sharpe ratios of 2.51, 2.27, 1.71, 1.33, and 0.78 respectively; for the 2 - year Treasury bond, they were high - frequency capital flow, basis factor, intraday volume - price, and member position, with Sharpe ratios of 2.45, 1.82, 1.59, and 0.82 respectively [6][17][18][19]. 3.2 Commodity Market - **Commodity Factor Performance**: In the first week of 2026, the domestic commodity market generally rose. Lithium carbonate led the rise, and polysilicon led the decline. Tin and coking coal had a rise of over 6%. Different commodity factors had obvious performance differences. The term - structure and basis - type factors almost closed flat, the volume - price trend - type factors had a return of over 0.5%, the value - type and volatility - type factors rose slightly, and the warrant - type factors had a decline of over 0.5%. Due to external market disturbances, the volatility of commodity factor returns increased. It is recommended that investors focus on commodity factors with long - term expected return capabilities, adopt a balanced allocation approach, and prevent risks [25]. - **Tracking Strategy Performance** - **CWFT Strategy**: Annualized return of 9.2%, Sharpe ratio of 1.58, Calmar of 1.05, maximum drawdown of - 8.81%, recent one - week return of 0.03%, and return of 0.03% so far this year [26]. - **C_frontnext & Short Trend Strategy**: Annualized return of 11.4%, Sharpe ratio of 1.73, Calmar of 1.69, maximum drawdown of - 6.72%, recent one - week return of 0.47%, and return of 0.47% so far this year [26]. - **Long CWFT & Short CWFT Strategy**: Annualized return of 12.1%, Sharpe ratio of 1.36, Calmar of 0.93, maximum drawdown of - 13.07%, recent one - week return of 0.53%, and return of 0.53% so far this year [26]. - **CS XGBoost Strategy**: Annualized return of 5.7%, Sharpe ratio of 0.95, Calmar of 0.32, maximum drawdown of - 17.98%, recent one - week return of - 1.47%, and return of - 1.47% so far this year [26]. - **RuleBased TS Sharp - combine Strategy**: Annualized return of 11.7%, Sharpe ratio of 1.53, Calmar of 1.42, maximum drawdown of - 8.26%, recent one - week return of - 0.57%, and return of - 0.57% so far this year [26]. - **RuleBased TS XGB - combine Strategy**: Annualized return of 11.6%, Sharpe ratio of 2.02, Calmar of 2.58, maximum drawdown of - 4.49%, recent one - week return of - 1.38%, and return of - 1.38% so far this year [26]. - **CS strategies, EW combine Strategy**: Annualized return of 12.6%, Sharpe ratio of 1.79, Calmar of 1.71, maximum drawdown of - 7.38%, recent one - week return of 0.62%, and return of 0.62% so far this year [26]. - **Best - Performing Strategy**: The Long CWFT & Short CWFT strategy performed best last week and so far this year, with a return of 0.53% [47].