Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Coke: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market continued its narrow - range oscillation. Production decreased, inventory slightly accumulated, and apparent demand declined. With the expectation of crude steel production cuts, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price rose slightly. After the end - of - quarter rush, global shipments decreased, and iron - making water production is expected to decline further. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [1] - Coking Coal: The futures price rose. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand remains stable. With some market participants having policy expectations, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Coke: The futures price rose. Coking enterprises' production is at a loss, and inventory has decreased. With steel prices oscillating upward and market sentiment optimistic, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price oscillated upward. The market sentiment was boosted, and steel tenders started. The supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3] - Ferrosilicon: The futures price oscillated upward. The market sentiment was boosted, and steel tenders started. Supply - demand has slightly improved, but the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - Steel: The closing price of rebar 2510 contract was 3063 yuan/ton, with an increase in positions. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume declined. National building materials production decreased by 14.27 tons to 416.01 tons, social inventory increased by 9.05 tons to 530 tons, factory inventory decreased by 2.51 tons to 316.13 tons, and apparent demand decreased by 24.46 tons to 409.47 tons. Shanxi steel mills received a notice of 10% - 30% crude steel production cuts [1] - Iron Ore: The closing price of the i2509 contract was 736.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.3%. Port spot prices rose. After the end - of - quarter rush, global shipments decreased, and iron - making water production is expected to decline further [1] - Coking Coal: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 871.5 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 3.32%. Spot prices in some areas rose. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand remains stable [1] - Coke: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 1456 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan/ton or 2.21%. Port spot prices rose. Coking enterprises' production is at a loss, and inventory has decreased [1] - Manganese Silicon: The closing price of the main contract was 5718 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The main contract positions decreased by 7292 to 37.06 million. Spot prices in some areas rose. Steel tenders started, with an increase in quantity and a decrease in the initial inquiry price [3] - Ferrosilicon: The closing price of the main contract was 5392 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The main contract positions increased by 621 to 19.13 million. Spot prices in some areas changed. Steel tenders started, with an increase in quantity. Supply - demand has slightly improved [3] Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 24.0, down 4.0; the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 26.5, up 0.5 [4] - Basis: For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 97.0, up 10.0; the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore was 31.0, down 1.3 [4] - Spot: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3160.0, up 10.0; the spot price of PB powder was 725.0, up 2.0 [4] - Profit and Spread: For example, the rebar futures profit was 76.8, down 21.5; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 127.0, down 1.0 [4] Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][11][12][15] - Main Contract Basis: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23] - Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of inter - period contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][29][32][34][35][38] - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of inter - variety contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [40][41][42][43] - Rebar Profit: There are charts showing the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar [45][46][48][49] Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52] - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the futures industry [52] - Liu Xi: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis [52] - Zhang Chunjie: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53]

有色商品日报 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏弱，下跌 0.05%至 9660 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.74%至 78330 | | | 元/吨；国内现货铜进口亏损收窄。宏观方面，美联储公布的最新 6 月会议纪要显 | | | 示，官员们对利率前景的分歧日益显现，主要源于他们对关税可能如何影响通胀的预 | | | 期不同，与会者认为在贸易政策及其他政府政策和地缘政治风险不断演变背景下，经 | | | 济前景的不确定性依然较高，但相较前次会议整体不确定性已有所减弱。市场对美联 | | | 储年内首次降息依然在 9 月，6 月和 7 月是重要的通胀和经济关注窗口。昨晚特朗普 | | | 发出第二波关税函，征收 20%~50%的不等关税，其中对巴西征收 50%关税，市场仍在 | | | 关注美国对主要经济体征收关税程度。国内方面，中国 6 月 CPI 同比涨 0.1%，核心 | | 铜 | CPI 涨幅创 14 个月新高，PPI 同比降幅扩大至 3.6%。库存方面来看，LME 库存增加 | | | 4625 吨至 107125 吨；Comex 库存增加 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 震荡 | | | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.5%，报收 67.72 美分/磅，CF509 环比上涨 0.51%，报收 13830 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 3515 手至 54.68 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15163 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下降 12 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15184 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日下降 9 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期整体驱动有限。宏观层面多为日内扰动， | | | | 美元指数在 97-98 区间震荡。基本面来看，美国棉花实播面积超此前预期，美棉 | | | 棉花 | 生长状况良好，产量或环比调增，同比持平，关注 7 月 USDA 报告，本周六公布。 | | | | 国内市场方面，昨日郑棉 V 字走势，环比小幅收涨。近期郑棉上下方均有驱动， | | | | 但力度有限。一方面，棉花低进口、低库存，以及近期天气扰动对棉价有一定支 | | | | 撑。另一方面，新棉丰产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the performance of major stock indices on July 9th, including their price movements, trading volumes, and the impact of different sectors on these indices. It also provides data on the basis of stock index futures, the cost of opening positions, and the points difference in contract roll - over and its annualized cost. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Index Trends - On July 9th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.13% to close at 3493.05 points with a trading volume of 595.963 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to close at 10581.8 points with a trading volume of 909.214 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.27% with a trading volume of 303.196 billion yuan, opening at 6412.14, closing at 6390.47, with a high of 6431.09 and a low of 6375.08 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 0.41% with a trading volume of 207.864 billion yuan, opening at 5980.65, closing at 5953.49, with a high of 5992.13 and a low of 5940.18 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell 0.26% with a trading volume of 83.536 billion yuan, opening at 2746.14, closing at 2739.92, with a high of 2759.06 and a low of 2739.21 [1]. - The CSI 300 Index fell 0.18% with a trading volume of 305.399 billion yuan, opening at 3997.5, closing at 3991.4, with a high of 4016.74 and a low of 3987.43 [1]. 3.2 Impact of Sector Movements on Index - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 17.23 points compared to the previous close. Sectors such as environmental protection, media, and banking had a positive impact, while power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and electronics had a negative impact [2]. - The CSI 500 Index dropped 24.25 points compared to the previous close. Power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and electronics had a negative impact [2]. - The CSI 300 Index dropped 7.05 points compared to the previous close. Power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and banking had a positive impact, while electronics, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals had a negative impact [2]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped 7.27 points compared to the previous close. Pharmaceutical biology, food and beverage, and communication had a positive impact, while electronics, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals had a negative impact [2]. 3.3 Basis of Stock Index Futures and Annualized Cost of Opening Positions - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 32.46, IM01 of - 106.22, IM02 of - 179.85, and IM03 of - 367.73 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 22.0, IC01 of - 78.52, IC02 of - 128.99, and IC03 of - 252.77 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 16.7, IF01 of - 33.74, IF02 of - 41.77, and IF03 of - 75.91 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 14.68, IH01 of - 19.67, IH02 of - 19.96, and IH03 of - 19.67 [13]. 3.4 Points Difference in Contract Roll - over and Its Annualized Cost - The report provides data on the points difference in contract roll - over and its annualized cost for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time points throughout the trading day [21][23][25].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Cautiously bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Sideways [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea: On Wednesday, the spot price of urea strengthened slightly, with prices in Shandong and Henan rising to 1,840 yuan/ton. The daily output was 19.91 tons, a daily decrease of 0.03 tons. The Indian tender provides support, but the final impact needs further observation. The market remains firm, and subsequent focus should be on the final tender price and export policy [1]. - Soda Ash: On Wednesday, the spot price of soda ash was still being adjusted downward in some areas. The trading sentiment was subdued, but the futures market rose for several days. The industry's operating rate reached 82.58%. The supply and demand of the spot market are weak, and the price is in a downward range. Attention should be paid to inventory data, market sentiment, and downstream production changes [1]. - Glass: On Wednesday, the spot price of glass remained stable at 1,173 yuan/ton. The supply was stable, with a daily melting volume of 15.84 tons. The demand continued to follow up, but the trading atmosphere declined slightly. The market drive is limited, and the price needs more positive factors to rise [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On July 9, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 2,245, a decrease of 362 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4]. - On July 9, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.91 tons, a decrease of 0.03 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2.02 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 85.98%, a 3.36 - percentage - point increase from 82.62% in the same period last year [4]. - On July 9, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions increased, with Shandong and Henan at 1,840 yuan/ton, up 20 and 30 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - As of July 9, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 96.77 tons, a decrease of 5.08 tons (-4.99%) from the previous week [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On July 9, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3,736, a decrease of 297 from the previous trading day, with 476 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 799, a decrease of 3 from the previous trading day [7]. - On July 9, the spot prices of soda ash in some regions decreased. For example, the light soda ash in North China dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and in East China, it dropped by 30 yuan/ton [7]. - On July 9, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.58%, up from 82.2% the previous working day [8]. - On July 9, the average price of the float glass market was 1,173 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output was 15.84 tons, also unchanged [8]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and price spreads of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, and the futures price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [10][11][15][19][20][22]. Group 5: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won many awards [25]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won multiple honors [25]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report is a daily monitoring report on iron ore basis and spreads, presenting data on futures contract prices, spreads, basis, and variety spreads, as well as relevant regulatory changes in iron ore futures contracts [1][4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - **Futures Contract Prices**: The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts increased by 2.5, 3.5, and 3.0 respectively compared to the previous day [4]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of I05 - I09, I09 - I01, and I01 - I05 changed by -1.0, 0.5, and 0.5 respectively compared to the previous day [4]. 3.2 Basis - **Basis Data**: The basis of various iron ore varieties showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. - **Basis Charts**: Multiple charts presented the basis trends of different iron ore varieties over time [9][10][11]. 3.3 Regulatory Changes in Iron Ore Futures Contracts - **Increased Deliverable Varieties**: Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukraine Concentrate) were added, and four more (Taigang Concentrate, Magang Concentrate, Wugang Standard Powder, SP10 Powder) were later added [12]. - **Adjusted Brand Premiums**: The brand premiums of most deliverable varieties were adjusted to 0 yuan/ton, except for PB powder, BRBF, and Carajas powder with a premium of 15 yuan/ton [12]. - **Adjusted Substitute Quality Differences and Premiums**: The allowable ranges of iron grade and other elements were adjusted, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium was introduced [12]. 3.4 Variety Spreads - **Variety Spread Data**: The spreads between different iron ore varieties showed various changes, such as the spread between PB block and PB powder increasing by 1.0 [14]. - **Variety Spread Charts**: Multiple charts presented the spread trends between different iron ore varieties over time [16][18][21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 9th, polysilicon showed a volatile and upward trend, with the main contract 2508 closing at 39,270 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 5.03%, and the position increasing by 13,360 lots to 97,187 lots. The SMM polysilicon N-type silicon material price rose to 40,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type silicon material also rose to 40,000 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract widened to 730 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a volatile and downward trend, with the main contract 2509 closing at 8,140 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.67%, and the position increasing by 11,907 lots to 399,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price remained stable at 8,777 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rose to 8,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 90 yuan/ton [2]. - The polysilicon market is expected to gradually clear its production capacity through measures such as cost investigation and pricing, cancellation of planned restarts, state reserve purchases, the industry association setting a benchmark cost price, and re - positioning photovoltaics as an energy product rather than a manufacturing product. Currently, the trading logic of polysilicon is in a period of policy regulation and the fermentation of various news, and the expectation of anti - involution production cuts in the industry is accelerating. The market volatility has increased, and there is strong overall support. It is not advisable to short against the trend, and one can choose to wait and see or try to go long with a light position. For industrial silicon, although the warehouse receipts have decreased, the accumulation of social inventory suppresses the rebound space, so a high - selling strategy should be adopted. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts for both types of silicon and the opportunity to go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon after the PS/SI price ratio rebounds [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon and industrial silicon showed different trends on July 9th. Polysilicon was volatile and upward, while industrial silicon was volatile and downward. The polysilicon market is in a period of policy - driven production capacity adjustment, and the industrial silicon market is affected by inventory [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 8,165 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 125 yuan/ton to 8,160 yuan/ton. Among the spot prices, the price of some grades such as the non - oxygenated 553 silicon in Sichuan and the oxygenated 553 silicon in Kunming increased by 50 yuan/ton, while the price of the 421 silicon for organic silicon use in Kunming decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price remained unchanged at 8,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 125 yuan to 90 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 285, and the social inventory decreased by 400 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 885 yuan/ton to 39,270 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 415 yuan/ton to 37,535 yuan/ton. The N - type polysilicon material price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 40,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 40,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 115 yuan to 730 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2,780, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 8.34 million tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 10,800 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers (single - crystal M10/G12) and battery cells (single - crystal M10/G12) remained unchanged [4]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19] 3.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, industrial silicon factory warehouses, industrial silicon weekly industry inventory, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][23][25] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost and profit of DMC, and cost and profit of polysilicon [28][30][32] 4. Non - Technical Content (Team Introduction) - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with their respective educational backgrounds, research directions, and professional qualifications introduced [34][35][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices oscillated. The EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. The market demand is strong as it digests OPEC+'s production increase without inventory accumulation. With OPEC+ increasing supply, the demand remains resilient, leading to an oscillating and slightly upward - trending oil price [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Wednesday. The domestic refinery operating rate decreased slightly. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to be tight, while the supply pressure will continue to suppress the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market. In the short term, it will mainly oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Wednesday. The inventory level was stable week - on - week, and the operating rate increased. The impact of the adjustment of the consumption tax deduction policy has not yet appeared. The supply in July is stable with a slight increase. The demand in the south is slowly recovering, while the rainfall in the north hinders demand. It will oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products such as TA, EG, and PX rose slightly on Wednesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. TA inventory may gradually accumulate, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol in the third quarter, with its price under pressure [2]. - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber products such as RU, NR, and BR rose slightly on Wednesday. The rubber - producing areas are in full - scale tapping, raw material prices are loose, downstream tire operating rates declined, and inventory slightly increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to rubber purchase and storage news and tariff negotiations between Vietnam and the US [3]. - **Methanol**: The production of Iranian devices is gradually recovering. Although the short - term arrival volume has not increased much, the long - term arrival volume will increase. The short - term supply shortage has eased, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream is still in the maintenance season, with little change in overall supply. As the off - season arrives, downstream operating rates have declined, and enterprises purchase on demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Recently, the profit of chlor - alkali has decreased, and enterprise operating rates have declined. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated. Before the market provides obvious opportunities, short - selling is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed up $0.05 to $68.38 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; Brent September contract closed up $0.04 to $70.19 per barrel, a 0.06% increase; SC2508 closed at 520.1 yuan per barrel, up 4.4 yuan per barrel, a 0.85% increase. US crude oil inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels to 426 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.51% to 2982 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2509 of low - sulfur fuel oil rose 0.82% to 3692 yuan per ton. As of July 9, the operating rate of domestic refineries was 63.61%, down 0.46 percentage points from last week [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.86% to 3623 yuan per ton. The total inventory level of domestic refineries was 27.91%, unchanged week - on - week; the social inventory rate was 35.81%, up 0.33% week - on - week; the operating rate of asphalt plants was 35.53%, up 2.72% week - on - week [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4718 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; EG2509 closed at 4283 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6724 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were about 40% [2]. - **Rubber**: The main contract RU2509 of natural rubber rose 60 yuan per ton to 14045 yuan per ton; NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12095 yuan per ton; BR main contract rose 5 yuan per ton to 11310 yuan per ton. As of July 6, the social inventory of natural rubber decreased by 0.02 million tons, a 0.02% decrease [3]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang was 2385 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1962.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 275 - 279 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 339 - 344 US dollars per ton [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 7050 - 7180 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 341.35 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP was 911.73 yuan per ton [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC in East China was stable, with the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material at 4740 - 4840 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based material at 4800 - 5150 yuan per ton [4]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on July 10, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [5]. 3.3 Market News - The Red Sea, a global important shipping route, was attacked again last week after months of calm. The attacker is suspected to be the Yemeni Houthi rebels supported by Iran, and a cargo ship sank, causing at least 4 crew members to die [7]. - The EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [7]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [9][11][13][15][17][19] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [22][23][24][25] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [36][37][38][39][41][42][44][45][47][48][49][51][52] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil's internal and external markets, B - W spread of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [53][54][55] - **Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trends of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [58][59][60][61][62] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research [64]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain [65]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis and logical reasoning [66]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The A-share market is expected to continue to fluctuate. The index fundamentals depend on the domestic economic recovery process. Although the corporate profit situation in the first half of 2025 has improved significantly compared to 2024, and there is support from allocation funds, the index is difficult to break through the central level and rise significantly due to credit contraction and insufficient demand under the background of debt resolution. On the other hand, it will not experience a sharp decline in the short term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in an environment with loose funds, stable economy, and low short-term interest rate cut expectations. With insufficient upward and downward momentum, it is expected to continue the fluctuating trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On July 9, 2025, the A-share market fluctuated and closed down. The Wind All A index fell 0.18% with a trading volume of 1.53 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also declined. The media sector led the rise, while the non-ferrous metals sector corrected. The recent Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the construction of a unified national market, but the impact on related themes depends on the transfer mode and scale of central fiscal incremental policies. Overseas, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slowed down, and the boost to domestic small-cap indices has weakened. The fundamentals of the index depend on the domestic economic recovery process, and it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On July 9, 2025, treasury bond futures closed with gains. The central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. The net withdrawal of funds was 230 billion yuan. The overall capital situation was loose, and the price index remained stable. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 9, 2025, compared with the previous day, the IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts all declined, with declines of -0.14%, -0.15%, -0.47%, and -0.35% respectively [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices also declined, with declines of -0.26%, -0.18%, -0.41%, and -0.27% respectively [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS, TF, T, and TL contracts all rose, with increases of 0.00%, 0.02%, 0.03%, and 0.14% respectively [3]. 3.3 Market News - From 2021 to 2024, China's economy maintained an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. The average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth was 86.4%, and the average contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth reached 56.2%, 8.6 percentage points higher than that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trend charts of the main contracts and the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the trend charts of the main contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides the trend charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates of other currency pairs [20][21][22]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-07-09 图 3：中证 1000 各板块对指数贡献的涨跌点数 -5 0 5 10 15 20 电子 电力设备 计算机 机械设备 通信 有色金属 基础化工 汽车 医药生物 传媒 建筑材料 国防军工 非银金融 环保 商贸零售 房地产 建筑装饰 交通运输 钢铁 食品饮料 石油石化 美容护理 农林牧渔 家用电器 纺织服饰 轻工制造 社会服务 煤炭 综合 公用事业 银行 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 图 4：中证 500 各板块对指数贡献的涨跌点数 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 电子 电力设备 非银金融 计算机 基础化工 传媒 机械设备 有色金属 通信 国防军工 钢铁 社会服务 汽车 家用电器 医药生物 商贸零售 建筑材料 交通运输 房地产 食品饮料 石油石化 美容护理 环保 煤炭 轻工制造 建筑装饰 纺织服饰 农林牧渔 公用事业 银行 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 一、指数走势 07 月 08 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.7%，收于 3497.48 点，成交额 5675.07 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 1.47%，收于 10588.39 点，成交额 8864.32 亿元。 中证 ...