1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On September 18, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,905 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.22%, and the position decreased by 621 lots to 285,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,483 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 180 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 53,205 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.49%, and the position decreased by 3,400 lots to 123,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 705 yuan/ton. There are intertwined positive factors for industrial silicon, and the market has staged a phased recovery. The conference proposed to set limits on the comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon and eliminate backward production capacity through capacity replacement, and establish a red-yellow-green light warning system for subsequent supply-demand regulation. The overall regulatory intensity is more moderate than expected. New capacity expansion is restricted, but existing capacity indicators are not directly cancelled. In September, production continued to rise, and the inventory pressure of polysilicon remained, putting pressure on prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - Industrial silicon and polysilicon both fluctuated weakly on September 18. There are positive factors for industrial silicon, and the market has staged a phased recovery. The regulatory measures for polysilicon are more moderate, but the inventory pressure remains, suppressing prices [1]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures Settlement Price**: Industrial silicon's main contract increased by 55 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 30 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's main contract decreased by 285 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 245 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Price**: Most of the spot prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon remained unchanged, with the spot discount of industrial silicon widening and that of polysilicon narrowing [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 1,400 tons. Polysilicon's warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the total social inventory remained unchanged, but the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 29,000 tons [2]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - End Price**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][13][15][16][17][18][19]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [21][22][23][24][25]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [27][28][29][31][32][33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock Index: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bonds: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints - The market fluctuated throughout the day, with all three major indices declining in the afternoon. Over 4,400 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closed lower, and the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan. The economic data for August showed a slight decline in demand - side indicators such as consumption and investment, indicating that the economy is still on the path to bottom - out and stabilize. The current market mainly reflects long - term policy expectations, and the impact of current fundamental factors is limited [1]. - In the long run, the Federal Reserve is likely to start an interest - rate cut cycle in September, and the market expects three interest - rate cuts within the year. The interest - rate cut channel for A - shares may also open, which is beneficial for the medium - and long - term stock index of equity assets [1]. - The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to directly increase the income level of residents. In the future, the central bank's purchase of national debt to raise funds for the central government and the introduction of more inclusive fiscal support programs will be an important way to stabilize and boost China's inflation [1]. - The liquidity - driven market is expected to continue, but it shows obvious structural characteristics, and the rotation of market sectors may accelerate [1]. - Recently, the bond market has been affected by a large - scale redemption of bond funds. In August, the CPI turned negative year - on - year, while the PPI bottomed out and rebounded. The growth of social financing declined as expected, the real - economy financing demand was weak, and the phenomenon of residents moving their deposits continued. In the short term, with the complex fundamental situation, there is no clear turning - point signal in the bond market, and it is still expected to move in a wide range [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH: From 2,956.2 on September 17, 2025, to 2,912.4 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 43.8 points or 1.48% [3]. - IF: From 4,553.2 on September 17, 2025, to 4,448.2 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 105.0 points or 2.31% [3]. - IC: From 7,252.4 on September 17, 2025, to 6,985.4 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 267.0 points or 3.68% [3]. - IM: From 7,547.0 on September 17, 2025, to 7,454.8 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 92.2 points or 1.22% [3]. Stock Indices - Shanghai Composite 50: From 2,952.8 on September 17, 2025, to 2,912.8 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 40.0 points or 1.35% [3]. - CSI 300: From 4,551.0 on September 17, 2025, to 4,498.1 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 52.9 points or 1.16% [3]. - CSI 500: From 7,260.0 on September 17, 2025, to 7,199.9 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 60.2 points or 0.83% [3]. - CSI 1000: From 7,554.8 on September 17, 2025, to 7,476.4 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 78.4 points or 1.04% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - TS: From 102.46 on September 17, 2025, to 102.41 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.046 points or 0.04% [3]. - TF: From 105.89 on September 17, 2025, to 105.82 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.07 points or 0.07% [3]. - T: From 108.16 on September 17, 2025, to 108.08 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.075 points or 0.07% [3]. - TL: From 115.88 on September 17, 2025, to 115.62 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.26 points or 0.22% [3]. 2. Market News - Market Trend: The market rose in the morning and then declined in the afternoon. All three major indices closed lower. Over 4,400 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closed lower, and the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.64% [5]. - Industry Sectors: The automobile service, high - bandwidth memory, tourism, and CPO sectors led the gains, while the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, diversified finance, and securities sectors led the losses [5]. - Popular Concepts: Tourism stocks strengthened against the trend, with Yunnan Tourism and Qujiang Cultural Tourism hitting the daily limit. CPO and other computing - hardware stocks were active, with Decentel and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable hitting the daily limit. Semiconductor chip stocks rose first and then fell, with Microport and Saiwei Micro - Electronics rising more than 10%. On the downside, gold stocks declined collectively, with Xiaocheng Technology falling more than 8%; securities and fintech stocks adjusted, with DZH falling more than 8% [5]. 3. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures contracts, as well as the corresponding stock - index trends [7][8][9][10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - It shows the historical price trends of treasury - bond futures contracts, the yields of treasury bonds, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [14][17][19]. Exchange Rates - The report includes the historical trends of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as the trends of forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and cross - currency exchange rates [23][24][25][27][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - All energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, are expected to show a volatile trend [1][3][4][6][8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On Thursday, WTI October contract closed down $0.48 to $63.57 per barrel, a 0.75% decline; Brent November contract closed down $0.51 to $67.44 per barrel, a 0.75% decline; SC2511 closed at 488.8 yuan per barrel, down 7.5 yuan per barrel, a 1.51% decline [1]. - Ukraine increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, with two Russian refineries attacked and a petrochemical plant on fire. The EU plans to phase out Russian gas and oil imports by the end of 2027, opposed by Hungary and Slovakia [1]. - In August, Russia's seaborne oil product exports increased 8.9% from July to 9.44 million tons due to refinery maintenance completion and increased fuel production. After the Fed's interest - rate hike, oil prices will remain volatile [1]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the SHFE closed down 1.24% at 2798 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2511 closed down 1.07% at 3410 yuan per ton [3]. - As of September 17, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased by 111.8 million barrels (14.21%) week - on - week; Fujeirah's fuel oil inventory decreased by 170.5 million barrels (24.03%) week - on - week [3]. - Although the autumn refinery maintenance season may tighten the low - sulfur fuel oil supply in Asia, the market will remain well - supplied before October. The high - sulfur market is supported by stable demand and weak refining margins, but supply is still abundant. The prices of FU and LU will follow the cost - end crude oil fluctuations [3]. 3.1.3 Asphalt - On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 on the SHFE closed down 0.35% at 3427 yuan per ton [3]. - This week, the shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 14.6% week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises reached 20.2%, a 1.7% week - on - week and 3.6% year - on - year increase, hitting a three - year high [3]. - Supply is expected to decline slightly in the remaining weeks of September. Demand in the north is supported by good weather, while the south faces increased rainfall. Considering the continuous losses of non - quota refineries, supply pressure is limited. With the arrival of the peak demand season, asphalt prices may rise, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and demand fulfillment [3]. 3.1.4 Polyester - TA601 closed at 4666 yuan per ton, down 0.98%; EG2601 closed at 4268 yuan per ton, down 0.67%. PX futures closed at 6684 yuan per ton, down 1.3% [4]. - Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak, with an average sales rate of 40% - 50%. A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Inner Mongolia plans to shut down for maintenance from October 10 for 20 - 30 days; a 600,000 - ton/year plant in Xinjiang is restarting; two US MEG plants with a total capacity of 380,000 tons/year have shut down for about a month [4]. - As of September 18, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China was 74.93%, up 0.02% from the previous period. PX supply has recovered, and downstream TA has new maintenance, so PX prices are expected to fluctuate with oil prices. With the increase in TA maintenance in the fourth quarter and the rebound in the peak demand season, TA fundamentals are expected to improve. For ethylene glycol, effective supply recovery in October depends on the restart of Satellite Petrochemical. The port inventory is expected to remain low, but the far - month supply is abundant, and the downstream demand improvement is less than expected, with a strong expectation of basis correction [4]. 3.1.5 Rubber - On Thursday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2601 fell 310 yuan per ton to 15,570 yuan per ton; the NR main contract fell 290 yuan per ton to 12,300 yuan per ton; the butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 175 yuan per ton to 11,415 yuan per ton [6]. - This week, the operating load of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week and down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of Shandong tire enterprises' full - steel tires was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and up 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year [6]. - After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the macro - environment weakened, and rubber products led the decline. Typhoons brought limited rainfall to domestic rubber - producing areas, and production is expected to recover. Tire operating rates were flat week - on - week, and automobile sales in the fourth quarter are estimated to reach 8.38 million, a 3% increase for the year, with less sales pressure. Rubber supply and demand are both increasing, and rubber prices will fluctuate with the macro - environment [6]. 3.1.6 Methanol - On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2247 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2090 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $264 - 268 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $324 - 329 per ton [6]. - Downstream, the formaldehyde price in Shandong was 1075 yuan per ton, the acetic acid price in Jiangsu was 2500 - 2560 yuan per ton, and the MTBE price in Shandong was 5160 yuan per ton [6][8]. - Recently, many domestic methanol plants have been under maintenance, resulting in a temporary low supply. Overseas, Iranian plants have high operating loads, and although there are short - term shutdowns, shipping volumes are stable, and arrivals are expected to remain high. The Xingxing plant has restarted, and the supply - demand gap in East China is narrowing, with port inventory expected to peak. Methanol prices are expected to reach a phased bottom [8]. 3.1.7 Polyolefins - On Thursday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 6780 - 6950 yuan per ton. Oil - based PP had a loss of 481.35 yuan per ton, coal - based PP had a profit of 399.87 yuan per ton, methanol - based PP had a loss of 980.67 yuan per ton, propane - dehydrogenated PP had a loss of 839.47 yuan per ton, and externally - sourced propylene - based PP had a loss of 411.47 yuan per ton [8]. - For PE, HDPE film prices were 8023 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan per ton from last week; LDPE film prices were 9639 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan per ton; LLDPE film prices were 7447 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton [8]. - Supply will remain high and volatile. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season, orders are picking up, and the industry's operating rate is rising. Polyolefin demand is marginally improving, supply changes are limited, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, but the cost side is under pressure, and polyolefin prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [8]. 3.1.8 PVC - On Thursday, the East China PVC market partially declined, with calcium - carbide - type 5 material at 4720 - 4850 yuan per ton and ethylene - type material at 4900 - 5050 yuan per ton; the North China PVC market was stable, with calcium - carbide - type 5 material at 4660 - 4820 yuan per ton and ethylene - type material at 4840 - 4980 yuan per ton; the South China PVC market was range - bound, with calcium - carbide - type 5 material at 4850 - 4900 yuan per ton and ethylene - type material at 4920 - 5020 yuan per ton [8][9]. - Domestic real - estate construction has stabilized and rebounded, but is still weak year - on - year. The operating rates of pipes and profiles are expected to increase slightly. Supply remains high and volatile, domestic demand recovers slowly, and exports will weaken due to India's anti - dumping policy. Although the basis and inter - month spread are high, inventory has been transferred from refineries to the market, and the total inventory pressure is large. However, this has been priced in. The market is now trading on the "anti - involution" concept, and short - term PVC prices may rebound but with limited upside [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, spot price, and futures price of various energy - chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and soda ash, as well as their changes and historical quantiles [10]. 3.3 Market News - In August, Russia's seaborne oil product exports increased by 8.9% month - on - month to 9.44 million tons due to the completion of refinery maintenance and increased fuel production. Exports from Baltic ports increased by 12.3% to 5.326 million tons, those from Black Sea and Azov Sea ports increased by 3.6% to 3.392 million tons, and those from Arctic ports decreased by 22.6% to 30,700 tons [12]. - Kuwait's oil minister, Tariq Al - Roumi, expects an increase in oil demand after the US interest - rate cut, especially in the Asian market. He also believes that new sanctions on Russia will have a positive impact on oil prices [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents charts of the closing prices of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [14][15][18][20][22][26][28]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - Charts show the basis of main contracts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][35][38][41][42]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides charts of inter - period contract spreads for fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [44][46][49][52][53][57][59]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - Charts display inter - variety spreads, including crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [61][63][68][69]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report includes charts of production profits for ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [71][73]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team consists of several analysts: - Zhong Meiyan, the assistant director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research, has over ten years of experience in futures and derivatives research [77]. - Du Bingqin, an analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, has in - depth research on the energy industry [78]. - Di Yilin, a rubber and polyester analyst, is good at data analysis [79]. - Peng Haibo, an analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, has experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint The report presents a daily data tracking of stock index futures on September 18, 2025, including the performance of major stock indices, the impact of sector movements on these indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and the points difference and annualized costs during futures contract roll - overs. 3. Summary by Directory Index Trends - On September 18, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.15% to close at 3831.66 points, with a trading volume of 1365.962 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06% to 13075.66 points, with a trading volume of 1769.195 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index declined 1.04%, with a trading volume of 654.023 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index fell 0.83%, with a trading volume of 604.239 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index dropped 1.35%, with a trading volume of 225.774 billion yuan; the SSE 300 Index decreased 1.16%, with a trading volume of 839.987 billion yuan [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 78.41 points from the previous close, with the computer and non - ferrous metals sectors having a significant downward pull [2]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 60.16 points, with the communication sector having an upward pull and the computer, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals sectors having a downward pull [2]. - The SSE 300 Index declined 52.91 points, with the electronics sector having an upward pull and the power equipment, bank, and non - bank finance sectors having a downward pull [2]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped 39.95 points, with the electronics sector having an upward pull and the food and beverage, non - bank finance, and bank sectors having a downward pull [2]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 10.97, IM01 of - 77.58, IM02 of - 228.34, and IM03 of - 431.8 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 12.09, IC01 of - 71.04, IC02 of - 190.65, and IC03 of - 354.99 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 4.86, IF01 of - 15.27, IF02 of - 41.07, and IF03 of - 67.9 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.7, IH01 of - 1.84, IH02 of - 2.08, and IH03 of 0.78 [12]. Stock Index Futures Contract Roll - over Points Difference and Annualized Costs - Detailed data on the points difference and annualized costs during the roll - over of IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time intervals (15 - minute averages) are provided, including values such as IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, etc., and their corresponding annualized costs [19][20][23][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On September 17, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main 2511 contract closing at 8,965 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.06%, and the position decreasing by 1,511 lots to 286,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,461 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 125 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main 2511 contract closing at 53,490 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.09%, and the position decreasing by 1,545 lots to 126,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material and the lowest deliverable silicon material both rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 990 yuan/ton. There are mixed positive factors for industrial silicon, and the market has staged a phased recovery. The conference proposed setting limits on the comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon and eliminating backward production capacity through capacity replacement, and establishing a red-yellow-green light warning system for subsequent supply-demand regulation. The overall regulatory intensity is more moderate than expected. New capacity expansion is restricted, but existing capacity indicators are not directly cancelled. In September, production continued to rise, and the inventory pressure of polysilicon remained, suppressing prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures Settlement Prices**: For industrial silicon, the main contract decreased from 8,970 yuan/ton on September 16 to 8,925 yuan/ton on September 17, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the near-month contract decreased from 8,950 yuan/ton to 8,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the main contract decreased from 53,670 yuan/ton to 53,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton; the near-month contract decreased from 53,700 yuan/ton to 53,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Among industrial silicon spot prices, the prices of some grades in certain regions increased. For example, the price of non-oxygenated 553 silicon in Tianjin Port and Kunming increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Kunming increased by 100 yuan/ton. The prices of most polysilicon spot grades remained unchanged. Among organic silicon spot prices, the DMC price in the East China market increased by 100 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 24 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 130 tons. The inventory in Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, and Kunming Port remained unchanged, while the factory warehouse inventory increased by 1,400 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 1,400 tons. Polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 29,000 tons, the factory warehouse inventory increased by 300 tons, and the total social inventory remained unchanged [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][25]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [28][30][34].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Contract Information - I05 closed at 782.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 763.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; I01 closed at 804.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan [3] - The spread between I05 - I09 was 19.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan; I09 - I01 was -41.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; I01 - I05 was 22.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan [3] Group 3: Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties, prices and basis values changed. For example, the price of Carajás fines (Carajás) was 919 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan, and the basis was 76 yuan, up 2 yuan [5] - Some varieties saw price decreases, like PB fines, whose price dropped by 2.0 yuan to 795 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 3 yuan to 40 yuan [5] Group 4: Exchange Rule Adjustments - Four new deliverable varieties were added: Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, and Ukrainian concentrate, with brand premiums of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [10] - Brand premiums of existing varieties were adjusted, with only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines having a premium of 15 yuan/ton, and others at 0 yuan/ton [10] - Quality difference and premium rules for substitutes were modified, including adjusting the allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators and introducing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium [10] Group 5: Variety Spread Data - The spread between PB lump and PB fines was 131.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan; the spread between PB fines and FMG mixed fines was 42.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan [12] - Some spreads increased, such as the spread between Carajás fines and PB fines, which rose by 5.0 yuan to 124.0 yuan/ton [12] Group 6: Research Team Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and relevant qualifications [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to experience narrow - range consolidation. The output of building materials has slightly declined, inventory accumulation has slowed down, and apparent demand has slightly increased. However, the significant year - on - year increase in rebar output in August has a certain negative impact on market sentiment [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation. Supply is increasing, demand is rising after production resumption, and inventories at ports and steel mills are increasing. The market is in a state of long - short interweaving [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to have wide - range oscillations. For coking coal, supply is gradually recovering but still slightly tight, and downstream procurement has increased. For coke, production at coke enterprises is stable, and demand from steel mills is maintained, but steel mill inventories are at a medium - high level [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are expected to be oscillating with a slightly upward trend. Their supply is at a high level, demand is limited, and inventories are accumulating. They mainly follow the fluctuations of the black sector [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Price Change | Supply and Demand Situation | Market Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel | The closing price of rebar 2601 contract was 3168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 0.71 million lots in positions. Spot prices were basically stable, and trading volume declined. National building material output decreased by 3.18 million tons to 405.92 million tons, social inventory increased by 10.06 million tons to 662.27 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 2.89 million tons to 314.15 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 5.7 million tons to 243.78 million tons [1]. | Building material output slightly declined, inventory accumulation slowed down, and apparent demand slightly increased. In August, China's rebar output was 15.412 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%; the cumulative output from January to August was 128.678 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [1]. | Narrow - range consolidation [1]. | | Iron Ore | The closing price of the main iron ore futures contract i2601 was 804.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.12%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 250,000 lots and an increase of 2,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices of mainstream varieties declined [1]. | Australian shipments increased, Brazilian shipments rebounded from the bottom, and shipments from other countries increased. After production resumption following restrictions, pig iron output increased to 2.4055 million tons. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 304,000 tons, and steel mill inventories increased by 530,000 tons [1]. | Narrow - range oscillation [1]. | | Coking Coal | The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1233 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan/ton (0.6%), with a decrease of 3070 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas increased [1]. | Supply at production areas was gradually recovering but still slightly tight. Recently, the prices of finished products slightly increased, and market sentiment improved slightly. Some downstream coke enterprises replenished inventory due to low inventory levels [1]. | Wide - range oscillation [1]. | | Coke | The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1734.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (0.03%), with a decrease of 365 lots in positions. Port spot prices were stable [1]. | Coke enterprises' production was stable, and shipments were smooth. Some coke enterprises' in - factory inventories continued to increase, but overall coke inventory was still at a low level. Downstream steel mills continued to resume production, and pig iron output continued to rise, maintaining rigid demand for coke. Currently, most steel mill coke inventories were at medium - high levels, and the procurement strategy was mainly on - demand [1]. | Wide - range oscillation [1]. | | Manganese Silicon | The manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5990 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.47%, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 8872 lots to 326,800 lots. Market prices in various regions were 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton [1]. | In the short term, supply remained at a high level and was difficult to significantly decrease. The final price of the mainstream steel tender had not been determined, indicating some differences between upstream and downstream. The demand of sample steel mills for manganese silicon decreased for two consecutive weeks on a week - on - week basis, and demand - side support was limited. The inventory level of sample enterprises was gradually accumulating, increasing for two consecutive weeks on a week - on - week basis [1]. | Oscillation with a slightly upward trend [1]. | | Silicon Iron | The silicon iron futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5766 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.24%, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 4542 lots to 207,900 lots. Aggregate prices in various regions were about 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton, and prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3]. | Silicon iron weekly output remained at a relatively high level and was difficult to significantly decrease in the short term. The quantity of the mainstream steel tender increased while the price decreased, and other steel tenders were ongoing. In terms of data, the actual consumption of downstream steel mills was limited, and demand - side driving force was not strong. The inventory of 60 silicon iron sample enterprises reached a new high in the same period in recent years [3]. | Oscillation with a slightly upward trend [3]. | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various varieties, as well as profit data such as the profit of the rebar futures market, long - process profit, and short - process profit, along with data on cross - variety spreads [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the historical basis data of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [17][20][23][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron contracts [28][32][33][35][37][39][41]. - **Cross - variety Contract Spreads**: It presents the historical spreads of the main contract hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [43][45][47]. - **Rebar Profit**: It shows the historical profit data of the rebar futures market, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit [48][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction The black research team of Everbright Futures includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [54][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with mixed signals causing increased market volatility. LME, Comex, SHFE, and BC copper inventories all decreased. Downstream demand was weak due to high prices and macro uncertainties. Overall, copper prices can still be viewed as relatively strong, as a decline may lead to downstream restocking opportunities [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended strongly with a 0.88% increase in AO2601, while沪铝 and aluminum alloy trended weakly. Alumina's short - term decline space is limited as it approaches the cost line, and aluminum ingots showed narrow de - stocking. After the cancellation of tax rebates, scrap aluminum prices are further supported, and aluminum alloy is expected to continue to run strongly [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel was flat, and沪镍 fell 0.14%. LME inventory increased, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel prices rose rapidly before and now face correction pressure, but overseas macro situations need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The Fed's interest - rate cut, inventory changes, and weak downstream demand were the main factors affecting copper prices. Despite short - term caution, long - term prospects are relatively positive [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina's cost support, aluminum ingot de - stocking, and scrap aluminum price support are the key factors for the aluminum market [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Supply disruptions, price increases, and changes in inventory and demand in different sectors are the main factors influencing nickel prices [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Market prices generally declined, with some inventory changes. For example, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 525 yuan/ton, and the social inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: Most prices remained stable, with some minor declines in lead ore prices and inventory [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined slightly, and alumina inventory decreased by 1.0 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices decreased, and nickel inventory increased in some areas [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 decreased slightly, and social inventory increased by 0.55 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 increased slightly, and LmeS3 decreased by 2.1% [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][22][23][24][25][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [47][48][49].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 9 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，ICE 美棉下跌 0.74%，报收 67.18 美分/磅，CF601 环比下降 0.07%，报收 13890 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 1339 手至 49.13 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15226 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 12 元/吨，全国棉花市场均价 15310 元/吨，较前一日上涨 | | | | 10 元/吨。国际市场方面，美联储 9 月议息会议如期降息 25BP，年内或仍有两次 | | | | 降息，基本符合市场预期。美元指数振幅剧烈，先跌后涨。黄金及美棉价格震荡 | | | 棉花 | 走弱。国内市场方面，新棉即将大量上市，本年度新棉丰产预期较强，当前机采 | | | | 棉开秤价格预计在 6.2-6.3 元/公斤左右，粗略计算新棉加工成本 14000 元/吨上下， | | | | 成本端有一定支撑。需求端，8 月社零数据同比增速放缓，服装鞋帽、针、纺织品 | | | | 类 8 月零售额同 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The long - term logic has been weakened due to the expected resumption of projects. However, from the current fundamental perspective, inventory depletion is accelerating. Before the actual resumption of projects, with strong demand and pre - holiday stockpiling for the National Day, downstream procurement demand will support prices. The price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate in the short term, and the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi needs further attention [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoint - **Price Changes**: On September 17, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.03% to 73,640 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 300 yuan/ton to 73,150 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also rose by 300 yuan/ton to 70,900 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 74,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 410 tons to 39,234 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Weekly production increased by 544 tons to 19,963 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 300 tons to 12,709 tons, from lepidolite by 130 tons to 2,730 tons, from salt lakes by 62 tons to 2,655 tons, and from recycling by 52 tons to 1,869 tons. Weekly production of ternary materials decreased by 22 tons to 16,491 tons, and the inventory decreased by 115 tons to 17,529 tons. Weekly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 980 tons to 77,513 tons, and the inventory increased by 686 tons to 95,442 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory decreased by 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons. Downstream inventory increased by 3,072 tons to 58,279 tons, intermediate - link inventory decreased by 1,390 tons to 44,020 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 3,262 tons to 36,213 tons [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures was 73,640 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of the continuous contract was 73,500 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 857 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars. The prices of some lithium ores and lithium salts also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,250 yuan/ton. The price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 350 yuan to 850 yuan [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [7][8][9]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: The price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate are presented from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads are shown from 2024 to 2025 [18][19]. - **Precursor and Cathode Materials**: The price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium are presented from 2024 to 2025 [25][28][31]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: The price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries are shown from 2024 to 2025 [34][36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from January to September 2025 are presented [39][41]. - **Production Costs**: The production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate are shown from 2024 to 2025 [44]. 3.4 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of the non - ferrous research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [47]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [48]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [48]. 3.5 Contact Information - Company address: 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [51][52]