1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Iron Ore - Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract showed a volatile upward trend. In the short - term, iron ore is expected to run with a slightly bullish bias. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread trade [1]. Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, while the spot prices were stable with a slight upward bias. The spot is in the bottom - rebound stage. It is recommended to conduct hedging on the coke 2601 contract on rallies, go long on the coke 2509 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread trade [2]. Coking Coal - Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, and the spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The spot fundamentals have improved. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread trade [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% - 0.6%. The 09 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changed, with the 09 - contract basis of Carajás fines rising by 234.0%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.0%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.3% [1]. - The spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port and price indices all increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% - 0.5% [1]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 7.2% to 2662.1 million tons, while the global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 0.3% to 2987.1 million tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% to 9813.1 million tons [1]. Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 million tons. The 45 - port average daily desulfurization volume (weekly) increased by 0.1% to 319.5 million tons. The national monthly pig - iron output decreased by 3.0% to 7191.0 million tons, and the national monthly crude - steel output decreased by 3.9% to 8318.0 million tons [1]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3% to 13723.11 million tons compared to Monday (weekly). The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 0.7% to 8979.6 million tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) increased by 5.3% to 20.0 days [1]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 09 contract decreased by 0.74%, and the 09 basis increased by 11. The coke 01 contract decreased by 0.54%, and the 01 basis increased by 9. The J09 - J01 spread decreased by 3 [2]. Supply - The average daily output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 64.1 million tons, and the average daily output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6% to 47.2 million tons [2]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 million tons. The average daily output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 64.1 million tons, and the average daily output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6% to 47.2 million tons [2]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 0.0% to 931.0 million tons. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 8.84% to 93.1 million tons, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.0% to 637.8 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 4.7% to 200.1 million tons [2]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap remained unchanged at - 4.8 million tons [2]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 0.6%. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 0.9%, and the 09 basis increased by 14. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 0.2%, and the 01 basis increased by 7. The JM09 - JM01 spread decreased by 7 [2]. Supply - The raw coal output increased by 0.34% to 868 million tons, and the clean - coal output increased by 0.3% to 443.5 million tons [2]. Demand - The average daily output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 64.1 million tons, and the average daily output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6% to 47.2 million tons [2]. Inventory - The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 7.5% to 176.4 million tons. The coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 5.2% to 892.4 million tons, the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.8% to 782.9 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 5.74% to 321.6 million tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: EC2508 (Container Shipping Index - European Line), T2509, TF2509, TS2509 (Treasury Bonds), AU2510, AG2510 (Precious Metals), RB2510, I2509, JM2509, J2509 (Black Metals), SH2509 (Caustic Soda), M2509, RM509 (Meals), P2509, Y25 (Fats and Oils), CF2509 (Cotton) [2] - **Bearish**: FH2509 (Hogs), SR2509 (Sugar), JD2509 (Eggs), SA2509 (Soda Ash), FG2509 (Glass), RU2509 (Rubber) [2] - **Neutral**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2507, IM2509 (Stock Index Futures), EC2508 (Container Shipping Index - European Line) (for unilateral operation), RB2510 (for unilateral operation), CU2508, AO2509, AL2508, AD2511, ZN2508, SN2508, NI2508, SS2508 (Non - ferrous Metals), UR2509, PX2509, TA2509, PF2508, PR2509, EG2509, V2509, BZ2603, EB2508, BR2508, LLDPE2509, PP2509, MA2509 (Energy and Chemicals), C2509 (Corn), AP2510 (Apples), CJ2601 (Jujubes), PK2510 (Peanuts), Si2509 (Industrial Silicon), PS2507 (Polysilicon), LC2509 (Lithium Carbonate) [2] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Entering a new window for US trade policy negotiations, the index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, with the central position continuing to rise. However, caution is needed when testing key positions. The market shows a structural pattern with sector rotation and shocks [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank's increased purchase of new - style reverse repurchase shows a caring attitude, driving the bond market sentiment to improve. The performance of the capital market during the tax period needs further observation [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The gold price remains in a high - level shock above $3300 per ounce, with certain support at the 60 - day moving average. Silver may have phased impulse - type rises, but chasing high prices should be cautious [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and the 12 - contract is bullish [2]. - **Black Metals**: The sentiment in the black metal market has improved. Steel mills' restocking is supported, and the prices of coking coal, coke, and iron ore are expected to rise [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US restocking has ended, and non - US regions have returned to fundamental pricing. The medium - term oversupply pattern in the copper market remains unchanged [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The performance of different varieties varies. For example, the demand for industrial materials is weak, and the inventory situation is poor. The supply and demand of some chemical products are also facing different challenges [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: The prices of different agricultural products are affected by factors such as import costs, supply and demand, and inventory. For example, the potential supply pressure of hogs is accumulating, and the price of sugar is expected to decline on rebounds [2]. - **Special Commodities**: The prices of glass and rubber are affected by factors such as spot price changes and raw material supply [2]. - **New Energy**: The futures prices of polysilicon are rising in a shock, and the lithium carbonate market has support but also faces fundamental pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index Futures**: The index has broken through the short - term shock range, but caution is needed at key positions. Suggested to wait and see for now, and consider interval operations and appropriate long - positions on dips for the unilateral strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank's actions have improved market sentiment. Pay attention to the capital market and central bank's open - market operations. Consider appropriate curve - steepening strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a high - level shock, and silver may have phased rises. Consider buying on dips if the gold price breaks through the support level, but be cautious when chasing high prices [2]. **Commodity Futures** - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Expected to be strongly volatile, bullish on the 12 - contract. Suggested to wait and see for unilateral operations and consider long - materials and short - raw - materials arbitrage [2]. - **Black Metals**: The sentiment has improved, and steel mills' restocking is supported. Suggested to go long on dips for iron ore, coking coal, and coke [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US restocking has ended, and the copper market has a medium - term oversupply pattern. Pay attention to the support levels of different varieties [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different varieties have different supply - demand situations. For example, the demand for industrial materials is weak, and the supply of some chemical products is affected by factors such as device restarts and inventory [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: The prices are affected by factors such as import costs, supply and demand, and inventory. Different trading strategies are suggested for different varieties [2]. - **Special Commodities**: The prices of glass and rubber are affected by spot price changes and raw material supply. Suggested trading strategies include waiting and seeing and short - selling on highs [2]. - **New Energy**: The futures prices of polysilicon are rising in a shock, and the lithium carbonate market has support but also faces fundamental pressure. Suggested to wait and see [2].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and changes of various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, on July 16, 2025 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Stock Index Futures Spreads**: Provides the latest values, historical 1 - year and full - historical quantiles, and changes compared to the previous day for IF, IH, IC, and IM futures' term - spot spreads, inter - term spreads, and cross - variety ratios [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report shows the latest values, changes, and historical quantiles of various treasury bond futures spreads, including basis, inter - term spreads, and cross - variety spreads, on July 16, 2025 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Treasury Bond Futures Spreads**: Presents the IRR, basis, inter - term spreads, and cross - variety spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL treasury bond futures, along with their changes and historical quantiles [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report details the domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals on July 16, 2025 [9]. Summary by Directory - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2510 contract closed at 780.40 yuan/gram, down 0.13%, and the AG2510 contract closed at 9225 yuan/kg, up 0.20% [9]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold closed at 3330.50 dollars/ounce, down 0.64%, and COMEX silver closed at 37.99 dollars/ounce, down 1.11% [9]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 3323.14 dollars/ounce, down 0.59%, and London silver was at 37.69 dollars/ounce, down 1.12% [9]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.27, down 0.33, and silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 41, down 6 [9]. - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver was 87.68, up 0.47%, and SHFE gold/silver was 84.60, down 0.32% [9]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.50%, up 1.6%, and the US dollar index was 98.63, up 0.53% [9]. - **Inventory and Positions**: SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.05%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.08% [9]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report provides information on spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on July 16, 2025 [11]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Quotes**: MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe 6 - week future freight rate increased by 1.39%, while CMA CGM increased by 4.02%, and some remained unchanged [11]. - **Container Shipping Indices**: The SCFIS (European route) increased by 7.26%, and the SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 18.69% [11]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. all had varying degrees of increase, and the basis of the main contract increased by 10.20% [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged, Shanghai port on - time rate decreased by 18.66%, and monthly export amount increased by 2.87% [11]. Group 5: Trading Calendar Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report lists overseas and domestic economic data and financial events to be released on July 16, 2025 [12]. Summary by Directory - **Overseas Data/Information**: Includes the eurozone's May seasonally - adjusted trade balance, US June PPI, industrial output, and API and EIA crude oil inventories [12]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Covers steel - related surveys, Chinese port commercial crude oil inventories, glass production - sales ratio, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory [12].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tuesday's sharp rise in the main European line futures was mainly influenced by spot quotes. The high opening of quotes in late August indicates that the peak season may last until late August or later, breaking the previous market expectation that July would be the peak for airline quotes. The market has adjusted the price difference between the 10 and 08 contracts, and the 12 - contract has also risen significantly due to the traditional peak - season factor [3]. - The current futures price trend is mainly affected by spot quotes. If other airlines follow the high - opening quotes, the main contract will continue to rise; if the quotes in August are conservative, the market may turn into a volatile trend. It is recommended that investors considering long positions prioritize the 12 - contract [11]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - On Tuesday, the EC2510 main contract opened higher at 1454 points, showed a volatile upward trend. Although the intraday gain narrowed, it further rose in the late session, with a nearly 18% intraday increase and a closing price of 1655.6 points, up 15.38% [2]. Trading Logic - The significant rise in the main European line futures on Tuesday, with the 10 - contract rising by over 15%, was mainly due to spot quotes. The CMA's online quotes for large containers in late August increased by nearly $1000 compared to the first half of August, indicating a potential delay in the peak - season rhythm this year compared to last year. The price difference between the 10 and 08 contracts was adjusted, and the 12 - contract also rose significantly [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Quotes**: As of July 16, Maersk's quotes were $1780 - 1982/TEU and $2960 - 3262/TEU, slightly up from before; CMA's quotes were $2035 - 3135/TEU and $3645 - 5345/TEU. The quotes of other airlines were relatively stable [5][7]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of July 15, the global container total capacity was 32.7 million TEU, an 8.2% increase year - on - year. In June, the eurozone's composite PMI was 50.2, manufacturing PMI was 49.4, and service PMI was 50.0; the US manufacturing PMI was 49, and the new order index was 46.4. The OECD leading index for the G7 group in June was 100.40 [7]. Outlook - The current futures price is mainly affected by spot quotes. Since the 10 - contract has become the main contract and the quotes are still in the July - August peak - season range, the futures will be affected by the upward sentiment of quotes. If other airlines follow the high - opening quotes, the main contract will continue to rise; if the quotes in August are conservative, the market may turn volatile. Due to the 12 - contract being a peak - season contract, investors considering long positions can prioritize it [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - For iron ore, the 09 contract showed a volatile upward trend yesterday. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased last week, but the arrival volume at 47 ports increased. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to decline. The iron - water production decreased due to steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions. Although the terminal demand may weaken in the off - season, the strong steel export provides some support. In July, the iron - water production will continue to decline, and the steel mill profit will improve. The short - term iron ore is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [1] - For coke, the futures showed a volatile downward trend yesterday, while the spot price was stable with a slight upward bias. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, the market bottomed out, and mainstream coking enterprises plan to initiate the first - round price increase. The supply is expected to increase as some coal mines resume production, but the production is difficult to boost due to losses. The demand may decline as Tangshan conducts environmental protection production restrictions, and the iron - water production is expected to be around 238 tons per day in July. The inventory is at a medium level, and it is recommended to conduct hedging on the coke 2601 contract on rallies, go long on the coke 2509 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [2] - For coking coal, the futures showed a volatile downward trend yesterday, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The domestic coking coal auction market recovered, and the overall spot market is in a bottom - rebound trend. The supply is expected to increase but the overall production recovery is slow, and the supply is still in short supply. The demand decreased as the coking and blast furnace operations declined slightly. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% to 0.6%. The 09 - contract basis of most powders increased, with the 09 - contract basis of Carajás fines rising by 234.0%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.0%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.3% [1] - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% to 0.5%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index also increased slightly [1] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 7.2% to 2662.1 million tons, while the global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 0.3% to 2987.1 million tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% to 9813.1 million tons [1] Demand - The average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 million tons, the 45 - port average daily dredging volume (weekly) increased by 0.1% to 319.5 million tons. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 3.0% and 3.9% respectively [1] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3% to 13723.11 million tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 0.7% to 8979.6 million tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.3% to 20.0 days [1] Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 09 and 01 contracts decreased by 0.74% and 0.54% respectively. The 09 and 01 basis increased, and the J09 - J01 spread decreased. The steel - union coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 [2] Supply - The average daily production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively [2] Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% [2] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased slightly by 0.0%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 8.84%, while the inventory of 247 steel mills and port inventory increased [2] Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap remained unchanged at - 4.8 million tons [2] Coking Coal Price and Spread - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 0.6%. The coking coal 09 and 01 contracts decreased by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively. The 09 and 01 basis increased, and the JM09 - JM01 spread decreased. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 2 [2] Supply - The raw coal and clean coal production of sample coal mines increased by 0.34% and 0.3% respectively [2] Demand - The average daily production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively [2] Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 7.5%, while the inventory of all - sample coking plants, port inventory increased, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased slightly [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - Urea: The recent decline in the futures market is due to weak domestic demand, with summer agricultural demand weakening and industrial demand affected by high temperatures. Although export quotas are being implemented, the second - batch quota has not circulated, so the domestic supply - demand imbalance persists, and the futures market may face pressure in the short term [6]. - Methanol: The inland market's maintenance has peaked, and production is expected to increase in late July. The port market faces dual pressures, with expected arrivals of 125 million tons in July and planned maintenance of coastal MTO, which will reduce ethylene demand. It is expected that the port will experience a slight inventory build - up in July, but the absolute inventory is low, with limited upside and downside, suggesting interval operations [9]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: In July, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene is improving, but high import expectations and high port inventories limit its upward momentum. Downstream price transmission is poor, restricting its rebound. It may fluctuate weakly in the short term. For styrene, high industry profits have led to high - level operations, but some downstream losses and high finished - product inventories have led to production cuts. Supply - demand is expected to weaken, and short - term basis may face pressure [11]. - PVC and Caustic Soda: The caustic soda spot market is generally stable, with some downstream demand support. There is an upward price expectation in the peak season. The PVC market has shown signs of a pull - back after a rise. The supply - demand pattern is in a off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with weak procurement enthusiasm. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. - Crude Oil: Overnight oil prices fluctuated within a range. The macro - risk has eased, and the short - term supply concern has dissipated. Although China's refinery operating rate has reached a 10 - month high, it is overshadowed by macro - negatives. Short - term band strategies are recommended, and options can capture opportunities from increased volatility [24]. - Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP): Both PP and PE show a supply contraction, with compressed weighted profits and marginal profit repair. Static supply and demand are both decreasing, with inventory accumulation and weak apparent demand. In July, the supply pressure is not significant, and inventory reduction has improved. Unilateral strategies suggest interval operations, and LP250 can be taken as a profit - taking point for arbitrage [43]. - Polyester Industry Chain: For PX, the supply - demand is expected to remain tight, but the upward rebound is under pressure. For PTA, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the absolute price rebound is limited. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand is turning to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate. For short - fiber, the supply - demand is weak, and the processing fee repair space is limited. For bottle - chips, the supply - demand has an improvement expectation, but the absolute price follows the cost [47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On July 15, the 01, 05, 09 contracts and the methanol main contract all declined compared to July 14, with the 09 contract having the largest decline of 1.87% [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed significantly. For example, the spread of 01 - 05 contract decreased by 128.57% [2]. - **Main Positions**: The number of long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3.47%, while the number of short positions increased by 4.39% [3]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and steam coal remained unchanged [4]. - **Spot Market Prices**: Spot prices in most regions declined, with the largest decline of 3.72% in Northeast China [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: Daily production remained stable, while weekly production increased by 1.12%. Factory and port inventories changed, with factory inventory decreasing by 4.99% and port inventory increasing by 10.98% [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The MA2601 and MA2509 contract prices declined on July 15 compared to July 14. The inventory of methanol enterprises, ports, and society all increased [9]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.11%, while some downstream operating rates changed, with the water - coal slurry operating rate increasing by 1.69% [9]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of related products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha declined on July 15 compared to July 14. The pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some links in the pure benzene and styrene industry chains changed slightly, with the Asian pure benzene operating rate decreasing by 0.1% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products were mostly stable on July 15, with some minor declines in futures prices [15]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB East China port price of caustic soda decreased by 3.8%, and the export profit decreased significantly. The export profit of PVC increased slightly [16][17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates changed slightly, and the demand - side operating rates of downstream industries also changed [18][19][20]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, Brent crude oil declined by 0.72%, WTI increased by 0.54%, and SC decreased by 1.26%. The spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [24]. - **Refining Spreads**: The refining spreads of various refined products changed, with the European diesel refining spread increasing by 4.89% [24]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all declined on July 15 compared to July 14. Spot prices also decreased slightly [43]. - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: The operating rates of PE and PP production and downstream industries changed slightly, and inventories increased [43]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha declined on July 15 compared to July 14. Downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also changed [47]. - **Supply - Demand and Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain changed, with the PTA operating rate increasing by 2.6% and the polyester bottle - chip operating rate decreasing by 4.7% [47].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Presents the latest values, historical 1 - year and all - time quantiles, and changes from the previous day of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios on July 16, 2025 [1] Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: IF futures - spot spread is - 38.46, with a change of - 6.60 from the previous day; H futures - spot spread is - 13.03, with a change of - 2.62; IC futures - spot spread is - 10.56, with a change of 1.90; IM futures - spot spread is - 165.43, with a change of - 5.33 [1] - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Different inter - delivery spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, such as IF's next - month minus current - month spread is - 2.80, and its quarterly - month minus current - month spread is - 29.00 [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 1000/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are presented, for example, IC/IF ratio is 1.5094, with a change of 0.0019 [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Displays the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of various treasury bond futures spreads and basis on July 16, 2025 [2] Summary by Category - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.6011, TF basis is 1.6394, T basis is 1.5701, and TL basis is 1.5663 on July 15, 2025 [2] - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: For TS, TF, T, and TL, different inter - delivery spreads are given, such as TS's current - quarter minus next - quarter spread is - 0.0820, with a change of 0.0060 [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are provided, for example, TS - TF spread is - 3.6070, with a change of - 0.0670 [2] Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals on July 16, 2025 [8] Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Prices**: AU2510 contract closed at 780.40 yuan/gram on July 15, down 1.00 yuan from the previous day; AG2510 contract closed at 9225 yuan/kg, up 18 yuan [8] - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 3323.14 dollars/ounce, down 19.67 dollars; London silver was at 37.69 dollars/ounce, down 0.43 dollars [8] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 4.27, with a change of - 0.33; silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis is - 41, with a change of - 6 [8] - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver ratio is 87.68, with a change of 0.41; SHFE gold/silver ratio is 84.60, with a change of - 0.27 [8] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.50%, up 0.07%; US dollar index is 98.63, up 0.52 [8] - **Inventory and Positions**: SHFE gold inventory is 28872, up 15; SHFE silver inventory is 1222959, down 1023 [8] Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Shows spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on July 16, 2025 [10] Summary by Category - **Spot Quotes**: MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe 6 - week future freight rate is 3069 dollars/FEU, up 42 dollars; CMA CGM's is 4398 dollars/FEU, up 170 dollars [10] - **Container Shipping Indices**: SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 2421.94, up 163.9; SCFIS (US West route) is 1266.59, down 291.2 [10] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 futures price is 1516.4, up 130.3; the basis of the main contract is 965.1, up 89.3 [10] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3270.26 ATEU, unchanged; Shanghai port on - time rate is 34.57, down 7.93 [10] Group 5: Trading Calendar Core View - Lists overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events scheduled for July 16, 2025 [11] Summary by Category - **Overseas Data/Information**: Eurozone's 5 - month seasonally adjusted trade balance at 17:00; US June PPI annual and daily rates at 20:30, etc. [11] - **Domestic Data/Information**: Steel Union's weekly production and sales survey of 523 mines for coking coal at night; China's port commercial crude oil inventory at 14:30 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors. The expected 50% tariff on US copper in late July, along with weakening demand and existing supply - side contradictions, may lead to price fluctuations. The主力 contract price is expected to be affected by the 78000 support level [1]. - **Aluminum**: For alumina, the market is in a state of small - scale surplus, with prices expected to oscillate between 2950 - 3250. For aluminum, high - level prices face pressure due to inventory accumulation, weakening demand, and macro uncertainties, with the主力 contract price expected to range from 20000 - 20800 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The regenerative aluminum market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with demand being the more prominent issue. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract running between 19400 - 20200 [4]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market has a loose supply expectation in the long - term. Although the inventory level provides some price support, the domestic social inventory may enter a stockpiling cycle. The main contract price is expected to range from 21500 - 23000 [7]. - **Nickel**: In the nickel market, the cost support for refined nickel is weakening, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference of 118000 - 126000 [10]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period. It is recommended to hold short positions from the previous high [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market has weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract running between 12500 - 13000 [14][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market has short - term price support due to news and capital sentiment, but the medium - term pressure remains, and there may be a downward trend. The short - term main contract is expected to run between 63000 - 68000 [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped by 0.59% to 77995 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 155 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 35.97% to 545 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, and the import volume in May increased by 1.23% to 25.31 million tons. The domestic social inventory increased by 3.29% to 14.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.20% to 20510 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 110 yuan/ton. The alumina price in Shandong increased by 0.32% to 3150 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 360.90 million tons. The aluminum profile production rate remained unchanged at 49.50% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20000 yuan/ton. The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 40 yuan/ton to 90 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 1.49% to 61.50 million tons, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.30% to 25.50 million tons [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped by 0.14% to 22150 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 63.52 yuan/ton to - 1260 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 58.51 million tons, and the import volume in May decreased by 5.36% to 2.67 million tons. The galvanizing production rate increased by 1.81% to 58.29% [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped by 1.11% to 120400 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss decreased by 447 yuan/ton to - 2442 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31800 tons, and the import volume increased by 116.90% to 19157 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.83% to 24922 tons [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price dropped by 0.71% to 264600 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2508 - 2509 decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the tin ore import volume increased by 36.39% to 13449 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14840 tons [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped by 0.39% to 12750 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2509 - 2510 decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 companies) in April decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons, and the 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 3.39% to 52.48 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.39% to 64900 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 110 yuan/ton to - 1960 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% to 78090 tons, and the demand decreased by 0.15% to 93876 tons. The total inventory increased by 2.27% to 99858 tons [17].

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating No rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash is in an obvious oversupply situation with continuous inventory accumulation. After the end of maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1]. - Glass spot market sentiment is still strong, but the glass industry is in the summer rainy season off - season, and the rigid demand side has certain pressure. The industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply dilemma, and the market is expected to be volatile in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass prices in the central China region increased by 2.80%, and glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.35% and 2.81% respectively. Soda ash prices were generally stable, and futures contracts 2505 and 2509 decreased by 0.53% and 2.06% respectively [1]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production rate remained unchanged at 81.32%, and its weekly output was stable at 709,000 tons. Float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38% to 158,400 tons, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory decreased by 2.87% to 6.7102 million heavy boxes. Soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.98% to 1.8634 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 4.39% to 238,000 tons [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 2.99% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 7.56% year - on - year, completion area increased by 15.67% year - on - year, and sales area increased by 12.13% year - on - year [1]. Group 2: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating No rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - The log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is gradually returning to fundamental control and is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and subsequent policy expectations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: Log futures contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 increased by 0.25%, 0.13%, and 0.25% respectively, while 2507 decreased by 0.13%. Spot prices of some logs in ports were stable, and the outer - disk quotation increased by 4 US dollars per JAS cubic meter [2]. - **Supply**: Monthly port shipping volume increased by 2.12% to 1.76 million cubic meters, and the number of ships in New Zealand decreased by 8.62% [2]. - **Inventory**: As of July 11, the national total inventory of coniferous logs was 3.22 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.31% from the previous period [2]. - **Demand**: As of July 11, the daily average log delivery volume was 58,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 0.81 million cubic meters from the previous period [2]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating No rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon spot and futures prices are rising. In the short term, prices will continue to fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline due to increasing warehouse receipts [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: Industrial silicon spot prices increased by 150 - 200 yuan per ton, and the futures main contract increased by 90 yuan per ton to 8,785 yuan per ton. Some inter - month spreads changed significantly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 12.10% to 300,800 tons, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37% to 51.23%. In May, the output of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy increased [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 17.46% to 123,900 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.18% to 551,000 tons. Warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.34% to 251,300 tons [3]. Group 4: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating No rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and the futures market has room for basis repair. There is a divergence in the market. Although prices are rising under policy expectations, attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: The average price of N - type granular silicon decreased by 1.15%. The futures main contract PS2506 increased by 1.69% to 42,470 yuan per ton. Some inter - month spreads changed significantly [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer output decreased by 3.36% to 11.50 GW, and polysilicon output decreased by 5.00% to 22,800 tons. In May, polysilicon output increased by 5.10% to 101,000 tons [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.47% to 276,000 tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.67% to 18.13 GW [4]. Group 5: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating No rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, rubber prices rebound due to macro - sentiment, but the fundamental weakness remains unchanged. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and short positions can be arranged in the range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan per ton [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of domestic natural rubber increased slightly, with the price of Sanjiaoguo standard rubber increasing by 0.70%. Some inter - month spreads changed [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the output of Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China increased. The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, and the domestic tire output decreased slightly. The export volume of tires increased by 7.72% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.05% to 632,377 units, and the futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE increased by 24.41% [5].

Group 1: Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The current breeding profit has returned to a low level, and the market is cautious about expanding production capacity. There is no basis for a significant decline in the market. The market expects a potential market wave in July and August due to the impact of piglet diarrhea at the beginning of the year, but the actual subsequent slaughter is expected to continue to recover, and the live inventory continues to be postponed. The pressure on the upper side of the 09 contract is accumulating. Pay attention to the pressure above 14,500 yuan/ton and operate with a short - bias when the price is high [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract price increased by 8.43% to 450 yuan/ton, the "pig 2511" contract rose 0.11% to 13,620 yuan/ton, and the "pig 2509" contract fell 0.25% to 14,250 yuan/ton. The 9 - 11 spread decreased by 7.35%. The main contract positions decreased by 2.17%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in Henan remained unchanged, while those in Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Hunan, and Hebei decreased slightly. The sample point slaughter volume increased by 0.84%, the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged, the weekly piglet price decreased by 3.20%, the weekly sow price remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.30%, the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 11.82%, and the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit increased by 220.34%. The monthly fertile sow inventory increased by 0.10% [2]. Group 2: Oil and Fat Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures have pulled back from high levels, with limited rebound space and the risk of further decline after the rebound. Domestic palm oil still has the pressure to weaken and adjust, and it is expected to seek support at 8,500 yuan/ton. For soybean oil, the market's digestion of the US sanctions on Russia has put pressure on crude oil, dragging down the vegetable oil market. CBOT soybean oil has maintained a narrow - range shock adjustment. Domestic soybean imports are expected to be high in July - August, but the market's attention has shifted to the limited imports in the fourth quarter, and there will be positive factors in August [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: For soybean oil, the current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.36%, the futures price of Y2509 increased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 5.08%. For palm oil, the current price in Guangdong decreased by 0.34%, the futures price of P2509 decreased by 0.46%, and the basis changed significantly. For rapeseed oil, the current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.31%, the futures price of Ol209 increased by 0.21%, and the basis increased by 43.10%. There were also changes in cross - period spreads and price differences between different oils [4]. Group 3: Corn Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View On July 15, the transaction volume of imported corn auctions reached a new low. With the depletion of remaining grain, traders are more likely to support prices, and the overall price is stable with partial rebounds. The downstream deep - processing industry is in the seasonal maintenance period, and the demand from the breeding end is mainly for rigid replenishment. In the medium term, the tight supply of corn and the increase in breeding consumption will support the corn price. In the short term, the weak market sentiment is gradually being released, and the corn price is stabilizing, with the futures market remaining volatile. Attention should be paid to the scale and transaction of subsequent auctions [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: The price of the "corn 2509" contract decreased by 0.30%, the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port remained unchanged, the basis increased by 14.58%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 7.81%, and the import profit decreased by 2.83%. For corn starch, the price of the "corn starch 2509" contract decreased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 11.32%. The positions of both increased, while the number of warehouse receipts decreased [5]. Group 4: Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on the price of raw sugar, which is expected to maintain a bottom - shock pattern. The domestic market demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. However, the entry of processed sugar into the market has put pressure on prices. Considering the increase in future imports, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease. It is recommended to maintain a short - bias strategy after the price rebounds, with the pressure reference range of 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Indicators**: The price of the "sugar 2601" contract decreased by 0.07%, the "sugar 2509" contract decreased by 0.26%, and the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 1.53%. The 1 - 9 spread increased by 6.18%. The main contract positions decreased by 3.20%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.12%, and the effective forecast decreased by 100% [8]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The spot price in Nanning remained unchanged, while that in Kunming increased by 0.43%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) decreased, and the price difference with Nanning also decreased [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03%, the cumulative sales increased by 23.07%, the cumulative national sales rate increased by 9.70%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [8]. Group 5: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The differentiation between the upstream and downstream of the cotton industry has intensified, with the downstream profits, cash flow deteriorating, and the开机 rate decreasing while the finished - product inventory increasing. However, the tight commercial inventory of cotton in the 2024/25 season before the new cotton is listed is difficult to resolve, which still strongly supports the cotton price. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate in a moderately strong range, while it will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market Prices**: The price of the "cotton 2509" contract decreased by 0.18%, the "cotton 2601" contract increased by 0.04%, and the ICE US cotton main contract increased by 0.68%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 50%. The main contract positions decreased by 1.98%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.93%, and the effective forecast increased by 3.24% [9]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The Xinjiang arrival price, CC Index, and FC Index all increased to varying degrees. Some price differences also changed [9]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 9.5%, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.9%, the import volume decreased by 33.3%, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 8.9%. The yarn inventory days increased by 14.1%, and the grey - cloth inventory days increased by 3.2%. The cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, and the clothing and textile retail sales increased by 4.0% [9]. Group 6: Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The excellent rate of US soybeans exceeds market expectations, and the market is worried about the impact of tariffs. The futures market remains at the bottom. The Brazilian soybean premium is continuously rising, and the Brazilian soybeans are relatively strong. Currently, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories continue to rise, the开机 rate remains high, and the basis fluctuates at a low level. Although the subsequent supply is expected to maintain a high arrival volume, the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, and the basis decline space is limited. The soybean meal main contract has returned above the 20 - day moving average, and with the stabilization of US soybeans and the increase in premiums, the domestic futures market may have further upward space. It is recommended to operate with a cautious long - bias [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: For soybean meal, the spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price of M2509 decreased by 0.47%, and the basis increased by 8.64%. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.39%, the futures price of RM2509 decreased by 0.15%, and the basis increased by 12.84%. For soybeans, the spot price in Harbin remained unchanged, the futures price of the soybean - one main contract increased by 0.44%, and the basis decreased by 10.53%. The basis of the soybean - two main contract increased by 39.13% [11]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The soybean meal cross - period spread decreased by 27.59%, the rapeseed meal cross - period spread decreased by 3.38%, the oil - meal ratio increased slightly, and the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased [11].