Report Summary 1. Report Date and Data Sources - The report is a full - variety spread daily report dated January 28, 2026. Data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and GF Futures Research Institute [2] 2. Commodity Information Ferrous Metals - For silicon iron (SF603), the spot price is 5604, the futures price is 5628. The basis of the converted price of 72 - grade silicon iron qualified blocks from Inner Mongolia to Tianjin warehouse receipts is 24 with a basis rate of 0.43% and a historical quantile of 57.90% [1] - For silicon manganese (SM603), the spot price is 5818. The basis of the converted price of 6517 - grade silicon manganese from Inner Mongolia to Hubei warehouse receipts is 134 with a basis rate of 4.29% and a historical quantile of 51.20% [1] - For rebar (RB2605), the spot price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3280, the futures price is 3260, with a basis of - 9 and a basis rate of - 0.27% and a historical quantile of 15.00% [1] - For hot - rolled coil (HC2605), the spot price of Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai is 3289, the futures price is 3289, with a basis of 0, a basis rate of 0%, and a historical quantile of 47.00% [1] - For iron ore (I2605), the spot price (converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port) is 788, with a basis rate of 3.32% and a historical quantile of 86.75% [1] - For coke (J2605), the spot price (converted price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke A13, S0.7, CSR60, MT7 at Rizhao Port) is 1723, the futures price is 1668, with a basis of 55, a basis rate of 3.54%, and a historical quantile of 40 [1] - For coking coal (JM2605), the spot price (converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Mongolian No.5) at Shaheyi) is 1156, the futures price is 1117, with a basis of 39, a basis rate of 3.50%, and a historical quantile of 38.20% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2603), the spot price (SMM electrolytic copper average) is 101370, the futures price is 102600, with a basis of - 1230, a basis rate of - 1.20%, and a historical quantile of 1.87% [1] - For aluminum (AL2603), the spot price (SMM A00 aluminum average) is 23870, the futures price is 24305, with a basis of - 435, a basis rate of - 1.79%, and a historical quantile of 0.83% [1] - For alumina (AO2605), the spot price (SMM alumina index average) is 2628, the futures price is 2734, with a basis of - 106, a basis rate of - 3.88%, and a historical quantile of 12.99% [1] - For zinc (ZN2603), the spot price (SMM 1 zinc ingot average) is 24690, the futures price is 24950, with a basis of - 260, a basis rate of - 1.04%, and a historical quantile of 7.29% [1] - For tin (SN2603), the spot price (SMM 1 tin average) is 451160, the futures price is 428400, with a basis of 22760, a basis rate of 5.31%, and a historical quantile of 0.20% [1] - For nickel (NI2603), the spot price (SMM 1 imported nickel average) is 146110, the futures price is 144950, with a basis of 1160, a basis rate of 0.79%, and a historical quantile of 13.75% [1] - For stainless steel (SS2603), the spot price (304/2B:2 * 1240 * C: Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee)) is 14670, the futures price is 14540, with a basis of 130, a basis rate of 0.89%, and a historical quantile of 24.67% [1] - For lithium carbonate (LC2605), the spot price (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average) is 179600, the futures price is 172500, with a basis of 7100, a basis rate of 3.95% [1] - For industrial silicon (SI2605), the spot price (SMM future oxygen - passing 215530 average) is 9250, the futures price is 8860, with a basis of 390, a basis rate of 4.40%, and a historical quantile of 22.10% [1] Precious Metals - For gold (AU2604), the spot price (Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D)) is 1142.9, the futures price is 1148.4, with a basis of - 5.5, a basis rate of - 0.50%, and a historical quantile of 1.90% [1] - For silver (AG2604), the spot price (Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D)) is 28300.0, the futures price is 28732.0, with a basis of - 432.0, a basis rate of - 1.50%, and a historical quantile of 99.20% [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2605), the spot price (factory price of common - protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu) is 3060, the futures price is 2766.0, with a basis of 294.0, a basis rate of 10.63%, and a historical quantile of 69.70% [1] - For soybean oil (Y2605), the spot price (factory price of grade - four soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu) is 8620, the futures price is 8258.0, with a basis of 362.0, a basis rate of 4.38%, and a historical quantile of 65.20% [1] - For palm oil (P2605), the spot price (delivery price of 24 - degree palm oil at Huangpu Port) is 9238.0, the futures price is 9190, with a basis of 48.0, a basis rate of 0.52%, and a historical quantile of 11.90% [1] - For rapeseed meal (RM605), the spot price (factory price of rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong) is 2271.0, the futures price is 2199.0, with a basis of 72.0, a basis rate of 3.27%, and a historical quantile of 83.20% [1] - For rapeseed oil (Oleos), the spot price (factory price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu) is 10130, the futures price is 9326.0, with a basis of 804.0, a basis rate of 8.62%, and a historical quantile of 96.50% [1] - For corn (C2603), the spot price (free - on - board price of corn at Xuzhou Port) is 2360, the futures price is 2283.0, with a basis of 77.0, a basis rate of 3.37%, and a historical quantile of 74.00% [1] - For corn starch (CS2603), the spot price (factory price of corn starch in Changchun, Jilin) is 2630, the futures price is 2540.0, with a basis of 90.0, a basis rate of 3.54%, and a historical quantile of 41.30% [1] - For live pigs (LH2603), the spot price (factory price of live pigs (ex - ternary) in Henan) is 13150, the futures price is 11285.0, with a basis of 1865.0, a basis rate of 16.53%, and a historical quantile of 90.50% [1] - For eggs (JD2603), the spot price (factory price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei) is 3840, the futures price is 3047.0, with a basis of 793.0, a basis rate of 26.03%, and a historical quantile of 84.20% [1] - For cotton (CF605), the spot price (market price of cotton in Xinjiang) is 15700, the futures price is 14565.0, with a basis of 1135.0, a basis rate of 7.79%, and a historical quantile of 77.00% [1] - For sugar (SR605), the spot price (spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station, Guangxi) is 5330, the futures price is 5168.0, with a basis of 162.0, a basis rate of 3.13%, and a historical quantile of 26.60% [1] - For apples (AP605), the spot price (delivery theoretical price of apples (daily/Steel Union)) is 8820.0, the futures price is 8000, with a basis of 820.0, a basis rate of 10.25%, and a historical quantile of 24.10% [1] - For red dates (CJ605), the spot price (wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei (Steel Union)) is 9400, the futures price is 9504.0, with a basis of - 104.0, a basis rate of - 1.09%, and a historical quantile of 39.50% [1] Energy and Chemicals - For paraxylene (PX603), the spot price (CFR spot price at Chinese main ports, converted to RMB) is 7241.0, the futures price is 7286.0, with a basis of - 45.0, a basis rate of - 0.62%, and a historical quantile of 19.80% [1] - For PTA (TA605), the spot price (market price (middle price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in East China) is 5258.0, the futures price is 5170.0, with a basis of 88.0, a basis rate of 1.67%, and a historical quantile of 20.70% [1] - For ethylene glycol (EG2605), the spot price (market price (middle price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China) is 3938.0, the futures price is 3810.0, with a basis of 128.0, a basis rate of 3.25%, and a historical quantile of 12.60% [1] - For polyester staple fiber (PF603), the spot price (market price (mainstream price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm (direct - spinning)) in East China market) is 6662.0, the futures price is 6660.0, with a basis of 2.0, a basis rate of 0.03%, and a historical quantile of 42.20% [1] - For styrene (EB2603), the spot price (market price in East China, China (spot benchmark price)) is 7905.0, the futures price is 7649.0, with a basis of 256.0, a basis rate of 3.35%, and a historical quantile of 72.90% [1] - For methanol (MA605), the spot price (market price in Jiangsu Taicang, China (spot benchmark price)) is 2304.0, the futures price is 2267.0, with a basis of 37.0, a basis rate of 1.61%, and a historical quantile of 15.50% [1] - For urea (UR605), the spot price (market price (mainstream price) of small - particle urea in Shandong) is 1790.0, the futures price is 1760.0, with a basis of 30.0, a basis rate of 1.68%, and a historical quantile of 8.80% [1] - For LLDPE (L2605), the spot price (duty - paid self - pick - up price (middle price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film grade) in Shandong) is 6899.0, the futures price is 6825.0, with a basis of 74.0, a basis rate of 1.07%, and a historical quantile of 6.70% [1] - For PP (PP2605), the spot price (duty - paid self - pick - up price (middle price) of polypropylene PP (wire - drawing grade, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang) is 6715.0, the futures price is 6709.0, with a basis of 6.0, a basis rate of 0.09%, and a historical quantile of 26.80% [1] - For PVC (V2605), the spot price (market price (mainstream price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in Changzhou Market, China) is 4911.0, the futures price is 4710.0, with a basis of 201.0, a basis rate of 4.27%, and a historical quantile of 27.80% [1] - For caustic soda (SH603), the spot price (market price (mainstream price) of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong market, converted to 100%) is 1951.0, the futures price is 1884.0, with a basis of 67.0, a basis rate of 3.41%, and a historical quantile of 32.90% [1] - For LPG (PG2603), the spot price (market price of liquefied petroleum gas in Guangzhou) is 4848.0, the futures price is 4248.0, with a basis of 600.0, a basis rate of 14.12%, and a historical quantile of 76.90% [1] - For asphalt (BU2603), the spot price (market price (mainstream price) of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong) is 3279.0, the futures price is 3140.0, with a basis of 139.0, a basis rate of 4.24%, and a historical quantile of 22.50% [1] - For butadiene rubber (BR2603), the spot price (distribution price in China: cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) of PetroChina East China) is 13045.0, the futures price is 13000.0, with a basis of 45.0, a basis rate of 0.34%, and a historical quantile of 26.40% [1] - For glass (FG605), the spot price (market price of 5mm float glass, large board in Shahe: Shahe Great Wall Glass (daily)) is 1066.0, the futures price is 932.0, with a basis of 134.0, a basis rate of 14

Group 1: General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, cotton, sugar, jujube, apple, corn, hog, meal, and egg, dated January 28, 2026 [1][2][4][6][8][10][13][17][19] Group 2: Oils and Fats Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Palm oil may face resistance and fall due to concerns about limited inventory decline; soybean oil is affected by South American soybean harvest and geopolitical risks; rapeseed oil is influenced by US threats to Canada and inventory status [1] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean oil was 8,660 yuan/ton, up 0.12% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,258 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The basis of Y2605 was 412 yuan/ton, down 5.07%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9,253 yuan/ton, up 1.46%; the futures price of P2605 was 9,238 yuan/ton, up 1.61%. The basis of P2605 was 28 yuan/ton, down 46.43%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed oil was 10,306 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the futures price of OI605 was 9,326 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [1] - **Inventory and Other Factors**: Palm oil inventory changes will be a focus at the end of the month; soybean oil is affected by South American soybean harvest and geopolitical risks; rapeseed oil is influenced by US - Canada relations and inventory [1] Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE US cotton maintains a low - level shock, and domestic Zheng cotton is supported by downstream demand and planting area adjustment expectations [2] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of cotton 2605 was 14,565 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the futures price of cotton 2609 was 14,710 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The spot price of Xinjiang 3128B was 15,633 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [2] - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 100%, industrial inventory increased by 1.5%, import volume increased by 49.5%, and other indicators showed different changes [2] Group 4: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE raw sugar maintains a low - level shock, and domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a low - level shock with support from cost and market atmosphere [4] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of sugar 2605 was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the futures price of sugar 2609 was 2,182 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot price of Nanning was 5,300 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [4] - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production decreased by 16.43%, sales decreased by 37.18%, and other indicators changed accordingly [4] Group 5: Jujube Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The jujube spot market has weak transactions, and the futures is in a low - valuation range. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival transactions and inventory [6] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of jujube 2605 was 8,820 yuan/ton, up 0.68% [6] - **Market Situation**: The spot market has weak transactions, and some traders exchange price for volume, with some small factories shutting down [6] Group 6: Apple Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The apple market is affected by pre - holiday demand, but high prices may suppress consumption, and inventory removal is slow [8] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of apple 2605 was 9,504 yuan/ton, up 0.40% [8] - **Market Situation**: The market sentiment is warming up, but the inventory removal of ordinary apples is slow due to high prices and competition from other fruits [8] Group 7: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Short - term corn price is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and pre - holiday inventory building, but is pressured by policy release and high - price transmission difficulties, maintaining a high - level shock [10] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of corn 2603 was 2,283 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the futures price of corn starch 2603 was 2,540 yuan/ton, down 0.70% [10] - **Market Situation**: Northeast corn price is stable and strong, North China has a small inventory - replenishing intention, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory in a rolling manner [10] Group 8: Hog Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The hog market is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock, with increasing supply pressure and limited fundamental benefits [13] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of hog 2605 was 11,695 yuan/ton, down 0.55%; the futures price of hog 2603 was 11,285 yuan/ton, down 1.57% [13] - **Market Situation**: Spot price is weakening, supply pressure is increasing, and the base difference is strong, but the fundamental situation is not optimistic [13] Group 9: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The meal market is expected to maintain a shock, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [17] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2605 was 2,766 yuan/ton, down 0.11% [17] - **Market Situation**: The domestic spot market is loose, the开机率 is high, and the inventory is still relatively high, but the first - quarter arrival expectation is low and there is uncertainty [17] Group 10: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The egg market is expected to maintain a range shock, with sufficient supply and attention to the digestion ability of high - price goods [19] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of egg 03 contract was 3,047 yuan/500KG, down 0.72%; the futures price of egg 04 contract was 3,322 yuan/500KG, down 1.25% [19] - **Market Situation**: Egg price increase boosts farmers' confidence, supply is sufficient, and attention should be paid to the terminal digestion ability of high - price eggs [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including the total positions and the changes in the positions of the top 20 seats of IF, IH, IC, and IM [1] Summary by Related Catalogs IF - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On January 27, the total position of the IF variety decreased by 18,138 lots, and the position of the main contract 2603 decreased by 13,695 lots [4] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IF variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 50,206 lots. Huatai Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 194 lots, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 4,046 lots [5] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IF variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 43,908 lots. GF Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 781 lots, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 5,042 lots [7] IH - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On January 27, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 4,127 lots, and the position of the main contract 2603 decreased by 4,194 lots [10] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 13,542 lots. Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 335 lots, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,651 lots [11] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IH variety on that day, GF Futures ranked first with a total position of 17,748 lots. GF Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 1,272 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,287 lots [12] IC - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On January 27, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 704 lots, and the position of the main contract 2603 decreased by 1,199 lots [16] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IC variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 52,212 lots. Galaxy Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 925 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 921 lots [17] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 56,906 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 877 lots, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,522 lots [19] IM - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On January 27, the total position of the IM variety increased by 3,901 lots, and the position of the main contract 2603 increased by 244 lots [22] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IM variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 58,101 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 2,209 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 923 lots [22] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IM variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 79,026 lots. Haitong Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 2,348 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 499 lots [23]

证监许可 【2011】1292号 原木期货日报 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息8)准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表 达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或海价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归 广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 2026年1月28日 期货和现货价格 | MJ2KTH MANITH | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 1月27日 | 1月26日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 772.5 | 772.5 | 0.0 | 0.00% | | | 原木2603 | 775.5 | 776.0 | -0.5 | -0.06% | | | 原 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Future market is more affected by geopolitical situation, and attention should be paid to the Fed's decision early on Thursday. In general, the short - term market is affected by news and capital sentiment, and the market maintains a relatively strong volatile trend. Gold long positions should take the opportunity to take profits at high prices, and one - sided trading can buy out - of - the - money call options instead of long positions [1]. - For silver, rising raw material costs may accelerate enterprises to replace silver with other metals, suppressing industrial demand, while new demand in fields such as AI is expected to support the silver price. Regulatory restrictions have cooled speculative sentiment, and ETF holdings have continued to decline. Short - term silver prices may still experience large - scale fluctuations, and it is recommended to pay attention to risk control measures of exchanges and maintain the idea of buying on dips with light positions [1]. - Platinum and palladium are supported by their macro - financial attributes and tight supply patterns, and their prices are linked to the rise of gold, with the price center continuously rising. However, the easing of supply tightness in the London spot market may limit the upside space, and it is recommended to buy on dips and sell on rallies within a day [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic Futures Closing Prices - On January 27, the AU2604 contract closed at 1148.38 yuan/gram, up 0.44% from the previous day; the AG2604 contract closed at 28300 yuan/kilogram, up 4.02%; the PT2606 contract closed at 705.70 yuan/gram, down 5.24%; the PD2606 contract closed at 523.00 yuan, down 2.21% [1]. 2. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - On January 27, the COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 5179.60, up 3.49%; the COMEX白银主力 contract closed at 112.35, up 8.14%; the NYMEX铂金主力 contract closed at 2645.10, up 2.70%; the NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1950.50, down 2.11% [1]. 3. Spot Prices - The current price of London gold is 5180.23, up 3.40%; London silver is 111.91, up 7.73%; spot platinum is 2642.50, down 5.99%; spot palladium is 1932.00, down 7.65%. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D is 1142.89 yuan/gram, down 0.12%; silver T + D is 28732 yuan/kilogram, up 4.43%; platinum 9995 is 751 yuan/gram, down 6.48% [1]. 4. Basis - The current value of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 is - 5.49, down 6.43% from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10%; silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 is 432, up 126, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60%; London gold - COMEX gold is 5.08, up 6.87, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.60%; London silver - COMEX silver is - 0.02, down 0.10, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 69.00% [1]. 5. Price Ratios - The current value of COMEX gold/silver is 46.10, down 4.30%; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver is 40.58, down 3.44%; NYMEX platinum/palladium is 1.36, up 4.91%; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium is 1.35, down 3.10% [1]. 6. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.24, up 0.5%; the 2 - year US Treasury yield is 3.53, down 0.8%; the 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield is 1.90, unchanged; the US dollar index is 95.77, down 1.32%; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9336, down 0.22% [1]. 7. Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory is 103029, unchanged; silver inventory is 544244 (in ten - grams), down 5.15%; COMEX gold inventory is 35941502, unchanged; COMEX silver inventory is 415146297, down 0.02%; COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts are 18847080 ounces, up 0.01%; COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts are 113269767, down 0.87%; SPRD gold ETF holdings are 1087, up 0.08%; SLV silver ETF holdings are 15848, down 0.79% [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices are weakly stable. The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil closed at 3123 yuan and 3287 yuan respectively. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar remains at 200 yuan. Due to raw material prices being weaker than steel prices, the profitability of steel mills has increased. Production is stable at a low level, inventory is accumulating, and apparent demand is decreasing. The supply - demand of the industry is weak. The seasonal decline in rebar demand is obvious, the supply - demand gap of rebar is widening, and inventory is accumulating significantly. The demand for hot - rolled coil has not declined much, and the inventory is still being depleted. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate within a range. The 5 - month contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3100 - 3200 yuan, and hot - rolled coil is expected to fluctuate between 3250 - 3350 yuan. The long - position on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar can be continued to hold [1] Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated weakly yesterday. The ore price is still under pressure. Although Vale's production suspension event has limited impact on supply, the supply side has a slightly increasing global shipment volume, with a marginal decline in the shipment center but still at a relatively high level compared to historical periods. The demand side is expected to keep the molten iron production stable, and the seasonal decline in the port clearance volume indicates that the resumption of molten iron production before the festival is restricted. Steel exports have weakened significantly. Port inventory continues to accumulate but at a slower pace, and steel mill inventory growth has also slowed down. Iron ore is facing a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is under pressure. It can be short - sold around 800 yuan. Be vigilant against macro - level fluctuations [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a weakly declining trend yesterday. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has landed and stabilized. The supply side has slightly reduced production due to pressure on coking profits. The demand side has seen a slight recovery in molten iron production after the New Year's Day. The inventory in ports and steel mills has increased, while that in coking plants has decreased. The overall inventory has increased slightly. The mainstream coking enterprises have initiated a price increase, but it has not been implemented, and the post - festival market is expected to be loose. It should be regarded as oscillating and bearish, with the range of 1600 - 1750 yuan. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. Coking coal futures also showed a weakly declining trend. The supply side has seen an increase in daily production and better shipments but insufficient inventory reduction. The demand side has limited downstream replenishment demand before the Spring Festival. The inventory in mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills has increased, while that in coal - washing plants, ports, and border ports has decreased. The overall inventory has increased slightly. It should be regarded as oscillating and bearish, with the range of 1000 - 1150 yuan. The arbitrage strategy is also to go long on coking coal and short on coke [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The main ferrosilicon contract oscillated weakly yesterday, with a continuous decline in open interest. The supply is stable at a low level, and most regions' production is flat compared to last week. The steel - making demand is expected to keep molten iron production stable before the festival, and the non - steel demand has weakened. The cost in Inner Mongolia may increase due to the expected electricity price adjustment. The overall situation is relatively healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 5500 - 5900 yuan. The main ferromanganese contract also oscillated weakly, with a gradual increase in open interest. The supply has decreased, and the production is at a historically low level. The demand is also weak, and the high inventory still suppresses the price. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 5800 - 6000 yuan [6] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices have generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3280 yuan to 3260 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil decreased by 16 yuan [1] Cost and Profit - The price of steel billet decreased by 20 yuan to 2930 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 10 yuan to 27 yuan [1] Production - The daily average molten iron production was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The production of rebar increased by 9.3 tons to 199.6 tons, with a 4.9% increase, and the production of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.9 tons to 305.4 tons, with a 1.0% decrease [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 10.1 tons to 1257.1 tons, with a 0.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 14.0 tons to 452.1 tons, with a 3.2% increase, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.6 tons to 357.8 tons, with a 1.3% decrease [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume decreased by 1.0 tons to 6.6 tons, with a 12.8% decrease. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 16.6 tons to 809.5 tons, with a 2.0% decrease [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 05 - contract for some varieties decreased. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.5 yuan to - 31.0 yuan, with a 5.1% decrease [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 129.7 tons to 2530.0 tons, with a 4.9% decrease, and the global shipment volume increased by 48.4 tons to 2978.3 tons, with a 1.7% increase [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The 45 - port daily average clearance volume decreased by 9.2 tons to 310.7 tons, with a 2.9% decrease [3] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 211.4 tons to 16766.53 tons, with a 1.3% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.6 tons to 9388.8 tons, with a 1.4% increase [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures and spot prices generally decreased. For example, the 05 - contract price of coke decreased by 51 yuan to 1668 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 43 yuan to 1117 yuan [5] Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons to 63.3 tons, with a 0.2% decrease, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 tons to 46.9 tons, with a 0.4% increase. The raw coal production of sample mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, with a 0.3% decrease [5] Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The demand for coke mainly comes from the molten iron production [5] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 18.9 tons to 939.2 tons, with a 2.1% increase. The coking coal inventory in mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills increased, while that in coal - washing plants, ports, and border ports decreased [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Price and Spread - The main contract prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly. The SF - SM main spread decreased by 14 yuan to - 214 yuan [6] Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly, and the production profit decreased. The manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port were relatively stable [6] Supply - The production of ferrosilicon was stable at a low level, and the production of ferromanganese decreased slightly. The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 5.2 tons to 77.7 tons, with a 7.2% increase [6] Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steel - making is expected to keep molten iron production stable before the festival. The non - steel demand for ferrosilicon has weakened [6] Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises increased by 0.3 tons to 6.7 tons, with a 5.4% increase, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises was stable [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and northern - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and tapping cessation, with overseas raw material prices likely to rise and cost support strengthening. - Demand remains weak. Some semi - steel tire enterprises with a high proportion of European exports are operating at a relatively high level, but domestic sales are slow. - Inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton in the short term [1]. Polyolefins - Affected by capital rotation and geopolitical tensions, prices are relatively strong. - From a static perspective, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. Upstream inventory is low and there is a strong willingness to hold prices, but there are issues such as proxy reselling at a loss. - Dynamically, PP's supply pressure is relieved due to more overhauls, while PE's standard product pressure increases and downstream demand enters the off - season [2]. LPG No clear view on price trends is provided in the report. Only price, inventory, and upstream - downstream开工率 data are presented [3]. Urea - Supply is sufficient as the daily output has reached a high level after the resumption of previous maintenance devices. - Demand is weak. Industrial procurement is sporadic, and agricultural demand has limited pulling effect. - The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1,760 - 1,800 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: The futures market is expected to be weak and volatile due to supply - demand imbalance, high inventory, and weak demand. - **PVC**: The supply - demand situation has not improved, and the price is expected to oscillate and correct, with the main contract focusing on the range of 4,820 - 5,000 yuan/ton [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals are generally weak, and the futures price is expected to be in a weak - oscillation trend. - **Glass**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures price is expected to be in a weak - oscillation trend. Attention should be paid to changes in production lines and inventory [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the port inventory is high. The price is expected to face pressure at high levels. - **Styrene**: The short - term price is relatively strong, but the supply - demand expectation is weakening, and the price is expected to face pressure at high levels [8]. Crude Oil The recent oil price trend is dominated by news such as the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US cold snap. Short - term geopolitical premiums and supply losses support the oil price increase. Attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [10]. Methanol The methanol market has a weak supply - demand situation. The inventory in inland factories is being depleted, but high production suppresses the rebound space. Port inventory is slightly accumulating, and the demand for MTO is weak. The price rebound is limited [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival and is still bullish in the medium term. - **PTA**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate within the range of 5,100 - 5,400 yuan/ton and is bullish in the medium term. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term and strong in the long term. - **Short - fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows raw material fluctuations. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price and processing fee follow the cost side [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of most varieties decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26, except for the prices of cup rubber and glue, which increased slightly. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of most contracts decreased, with the exception of the 1 - 5 spread, which increased [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November 2025, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India showed different trends. The production of China increased. The tire production, export volume, and natural rubber import volume in December 2025 all increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, while the general - trade inbound rate increased [1]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of most contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads of some contracts also changed. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The PE device开工率 increased, while the PE downstream加权开工率 decreased. The PP device开工率 increased slightly, while the PP powder开工率 decreased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased [2]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of most LPG contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased, while the port inventory and storage - capacity ratio decreased. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The upstream - main refinery开工率 increased, the sample - enterprise weekly sales - production ratio decreased, and the downstream - PDH开工率 decreased significantly [3]. Urea - **Futures Price and Spread**: The prices of most contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials remained stable, with only slight changes in a few. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of most downstream products remained stable. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea increased, the inventory decreased, and the order days of production enterprises decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of most PVC and caustic - soda contracts and spot products decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC changed to different extents. - **Supply**: The caustic - soda industry开工率 increased slightly, while the PVC total开工率 decreased slightly. - **Demand**: The开工率 of caustic - soda downstream industries decreased, while the开工率 of some PVC downstream products increased. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC changed to different extents [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass and soda - ash contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The basis increased. - **Supply**: The soda - ash开工率 and weekly production decreased slightly, while the float - glass daily melting volume increased slightly. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased slightly, while the soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly. - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new - construction area, completion area, and sales area improved, while the construction area decreased [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and pure benzene changed on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene contracts and spot decreased slightly. The spreads and cash - flows changed. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash - flow**: The cash - flows of downstream products such as phenol and styrene changed. - **Inventory**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased. - **Industrial Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most industries in the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains changed to different extents [8]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26, while the SC crude - oil price decreased. The spreads also changed. - **Refined - Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of most refined - oil products increased, and the spreads changed. - **Refined - Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of most refined - oil products changed [10]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads and basis changed significantly. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory decreased, while the port and social inventories increased slightly. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The upstream - domestic enterprise开工率 decreased slightly, while the downstream - some device开工率 changed to different extents [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash - flow**: The prices and cash - flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of PX contracts and spot changed. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of PTA contracts and spot decreased. - **MEG - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of MEG contracts and spot decreased. - **Inventory and Arrival Expectation**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival expectation decreased. - **Industrial Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most industries in the polyester industrial chain decreased [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given reports. 2. Core Views 2.1. Precious Metals - The short - term market for precious metals is affected by geopolitical situations and the upcoming Fed decision. Gold prices are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to take profits on gold long positions at high prices and buy out - of - the - money call options instead of taking long positions. [3] - For silver, rising raw material costs may reduce industrial demand, but new demand from AI and other fields may support prices. ETF holdings are falling due to regulatory restrictions, and short - term prices may experience sharp fluctuations. It is advisable to pay attention to risk - control measures and adopt a strategy of buying on dips with light positions. [3] - Platinum and palladium prices are supported by their macro - financial attributes and tight supply, and their price centers are rising in tandem with gold. However, the easing supply in the London spot market may limit the upside. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell at high prices within a day. [3] 2.2. Container Shipping - The container shipping market shows a downward trend in freight rates. The SCFIS and SCFI indices for major routes have declined, and most futures contracts have also decreased. Although there are some positive signs in fundamentals such as an increase in port punctuality and export volume, the overall market remains under pressure. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Spot - Futures Spread**: F has a spot - futures spread of 12.51, H has 11.61, IC has - 1.33, and IM has - 24.95. Their historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles vary, and there are also changes compared to the previous day. [1] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: There are significant differences in inter - delivery spreads (such as next - month minus current - month, quarterly - month minus current - month, etc.) among different varieties, and their percentiles also show different levels. [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 300/Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 1000/CSI 300, and others have their own values, changes, and percentiles. [1] 3.2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **IRR and Basis**: Different varieties (TS, TF, T, TL) have their own implied repo rates (IRR) and basis values, along with changes compared to the previous day and their percentiles since listing. [2] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Each variety has inter - delivery spreads (such as current - quarter minus next - quarter, next - quarter minus the quarter after next), with corresponding changes and percentiles. [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads between different varieties (TS - T, TF - T, etc.) are provided, along with their changes and percentiles. [2] 3.3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: For AU2604, AG2604, PT2606, and PD2606 contracts, their closing prices on January 27 and 26, price changes, and percentage changes are given. [3] - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: Closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of COMEX gold, silver, NYMEX platinum, and palladium futures on January 27 and 26 are presented. [3] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of London gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, as well as Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + D products, are provided, along with their changes and percentage changes. [3] - **Basis**: The basis values of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, etc., their changes, and historical 1 - year percentiles are shown. [3] - **Price Ratios**: Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver, etc., their changes, and percentage changes are given. [3] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Values, changes, and percentage changes of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate are presented. [3] - **Inventory and Holdings**: Inventory and holding data of Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX for gold and silver, as well as ETF holdings, are provided, along with their changes and percentage changes. [3] 3.4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Shipping Indices**: SCFIS (European and US - West routes) and SCFI (composite, European, US - West, and US - East routes) indices show their values, changes, and percentage changes on different dates. [5] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their changes and percentage changes. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply, port punctuality, port calls, monthly export volume, and overseas economic indicators (such as Eurozone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, US manufacturing PMI, etc.) are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market has complex trends with different varieties showing various performances such as oscillation, strength, or weakness, and is affected by multiple factors including geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Metals - **Zinc (ZN2603)**: Oscillation with a bullish bias, overseas smelting cost increase drives the price up, hold cross - market reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Methanol (MA2605)**: Oscillation with a bullish bias, pay attention to geopolitical changes and take profit on long positions when the situation eases [3]. - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Weak adjustment, Vale's accident but the price is still under pressure, short positions can be set up around 800 [3]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Short - term bullish, may try to break through 9300 [3]. - **Gold (AU2604)**: Bullish oscillation, take profit on long positions at high prices, buy out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Copper (CU2603)**: CL premium narrows and spot discount widens, take profit on long positions at high prices, and focus on the 99000 - 100000 support level [3]. - **Aluminum (AL2603)**: The dollar drops to a four - year low, driving the price up strongly. Wait for a pullback to set up long positions in the 23500 - 25000 range [3]. - **Tin (SN2603)**: The price rises at the end of the session but spot trading is cold. Be cautious in the short - term, consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [3]. - **Nickel (NI2602)**: The driving force is limited after the news is digested, conduct range - bound trading in the 140000 - 150000 range [3]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2603)**: Oscillation adjustment, the main contract ranges from 14200 to 15000 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon (Si2605)**: Spot price stabilizes, futures price rises and then falls, the main contract ranges from 8200 to 9200 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX (PX2603)**: High - level oscillation before the holiday, short - term range is 7100 - 7500, bullish in the medium - term [3]. - **PTA (TA2605)**: High - level oscillation before the holiday, short - term range is 5100 - 5400, bullish in the medium - term [3]. - **Short - fiber (PF2603)**: Follow raw materials, do positive arbitrage in TA5 - 9, shrink processing fees at high levels [3]. - **Bottle Chips (PR2603)**: Multiple devices are under maintenance and factories are destocking, processing fees are supported, ranging from 400 - 550 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol (EG2605)**: Positive arbitrage opportunity, sell out - of - the - money put options EG2605 - P - 3800 at high prices [3]. - **Pure Benzene (BZ2603)**: Supply - demand improves but high inventory suppresses, wait and see, shrink the EB - BZ spread at high prices [3]. - **Styrene (EB2603)**: Supply - demand weakens and high valuation pressures the price, wait and see, shrink the EB - BZ spread at high prices [3]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Trading volume decreases, wait and see [3]. - **PP (PP2605)**: Supply - demand is weak, price oscillates, wait and see [3]. - **Caustic Soda (SH2603)**: Supply pressure is high, price center moves down, short on rebounds [3]. - **PVC (V2605)**: May enter wide - range oscillation, short - term low - buying, wait and see on short positions [3]. - **Urea (UR2605)**: Take profit on long positions, short at high prices [3]. - **Soda Ash (SA2605)**: Oscillation is weak, wait and see [3]. - **Glass (FG2605)**: Supply - demand is weak, pay attention to production lines and inventory changes, wait and see [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Strong bottom support, range oscillation [3]. - **Live Pigs (FH2603)**: Supply - demand game intensifies, range oscillation [3]. - **Corn (C2603)**: Oscillation [3]. - **Sugar (SR2605)**: Spot trading slows down, range - bound with a bearish bias [3]. - **Cotton (CF2605)**: Spot is stable, pay attention to the support at 14400 - 14500 [3]. - **Eggs (JD2603)**: Spot is stable with a bullish bias, range oscillation [3]. - **Apples (AP2605)**: Demand increases, participate in the rebound with a light position [3]. - **Red Dates (CJ2605)**: Stocking is nearing the end, range - bound with a bearish bias [3]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures (IF2603, IC2603, IH2603, IM2603)**: Broad - based indexes oscillate in a range, theme industries rise structurally, control portfolio risks and reduce long positions [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures (T2603, TF2603, TS2603, TL2603)**: The bond market is in an oscillatory pattern, conduct range - bound operations, and pay attention to positive arbitrage in TL and T contracts [3]. - **Precious Metals Futures (AU2604, AG2604, PT2606, PD2606)**: The price trends of precious metals diverge, take profit on gold long positions at high prices, and be careful with silver and platinum [3]. Building Materials - **Steel (RB2605)**: Steel price is stable, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widens, hold long positions on the spread [3]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Coal prices in Shanxi loosen, Mongolian coal price falls from a high, take a bearish view on single - side trading, do long coking coal and short coke [3]. - **Coke (J2605)**: Coke price increase is hard to implement, take a bearish view on single - side trading, do long coking coal and short coke [3]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon (SF603)**: No major supply - demand contradiction, cost may rise, wide - range oscillation [3]. - **Manganese Silicon (SM605)**: Ore replenishment is nearly over, supply - demand improves, wide - range oscillation [3]. - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Local alumina plants have frequent overhauls, sell out - of - the - money put options at the price lower limit and short at high prices [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in the financial derivatives market, stock index futures are in a state of wide - based index range - bound and theme - industry structural upward movement, while bond futures are in a shock pattern; in the commodity futures market, different varieties such as metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [7][10]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Zinc**: Overseas smelting costs have increased due to the rise in natural gas prices in Europe and the United States. The shortage of zinc ore supports prices, and the supply pressure of refined zinc has been relieved. The demand side has improved, and the global zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with support at around 24,000 yuan, and a long - term long - at - low strategy is recommended [2][31]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price is in a strong shock, and the basis is weak. The market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. The inventory in inland factories has decreased, but high production restricts the rebound space. The inventory accumulation in ports is low, but the weak MTO demand suppresses the price rebound. It is recommended to take profit on long positions when geopolitical tensions ease [3][100]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in the off - season, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The iron ore price is under pressure due to factors such as the reversal of support factors, the lower - than - expected resumption of pig iron production, and the gradual fulfillment of steel mill restocking. It is recommended to short at around 800 yuan [3][52]. - **Palm Oil**: It may try to break through 9,300 yuan. The market should pay attention to the impact of inventory changes on the disk trend. Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are strongly influenced by the rise of Malaysian palm oil [4][79]. - **Gold**: The continuous weakening of the US dollar drives the gold price to a new high. The long - term upward space of the gold price is supported by factors such as the slowdown of employment and inflation in the United States, the long - term easing expectation, trade frictions, and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices and buy out - of - the - money call options [5][15]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the major indices showed a trend of decline in the morning and a slight recovery in the afternoon. The TMT sector was strong, while the dividend sector retreated. Among the four major stock index futures contracts, IC2603 and IM2603 rose slightly, and IF2603 and IH2603 remained stable. The basis of IF2603 and IH2603 showed an obvious premium trend, while the discount of IC2603 and IM2603 continued to be repaired [7][8]. - **News**: Domestically, the UK Prime Minister will visit China, and the two sides will strengthen economic and trade cooperation. Overseas, the US may raise tariffs on South Korean products. The A - share market trading volume decreased slightly, and the central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 78 billion yuan [8][9]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Although some theme industries are strong, there is a large outflow of funds from broad - based ETFs, and the market trading divergence is large. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions in a timely manner, and try to buy both calls and puts to bet on increased volatility [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures closed flat, with the 30 - year main contract falling 0.33%. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose [10]. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank carried out 402 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 78 billion yuan. The funding situation in the inter - bank market has improved, but there may be a phased convergence at the end of January to before the Spring Festival [11]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The bond market is still in a shock pattern. The short - term probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is low, and the bond market lacks a new driving force. It is recommended to operate within the range, pay attention to the positive arbitrage of TL and T contracts, and the strategy of widening the basis [11]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Geopolitical conflicts and other factors have led to the weakening of the US dollar index. Gold reached a new high, silver rose after a sharp rise and fall, and platinum and palladium fluctuated and weakened [14]. - **Outlook**: The long - term upward space of the gold price is supported by factors such as the slowdown of employment and inflation in the United States, the long - term easing expectation, trade frictions, and geopolitical risks. For silver, the demand in the industrial field may be affected by cost factors, but new demand in the AI field provides support. For platinum and palladium, the price center has been rising, but the supply tension in the London spot market has eased, which may limit the upward space [15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The CL premium has narrowed, and the spot discount has widened. The global visible inventory has accumulated to a high level in recent years. The short - term price is affected by the CL premium trend, and the long - term price is expected to rise due to supply - side constraints. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices and pay attention to the support at 99,000 - 100,000 yuan [16][19]. - **Alumina**: Local alumina plants have frequent overhauls, and the price fluctuates. The supply pattern is gradually becoming loose, and the high inventory pressure in the domestic spot market suppresses the price. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line, with a reference range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan [20][22]. - **Aluminum**: The weakening of the US dollar drives the aluminum price to run strongly. The supply side shows rigid growth, while the demand side is suppressed by high prices, and the inventory has entered an accumulation cycle. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock, with a reference range of 23,500 - 25,000 yuan [23][25]. - **Zinc**: Overseas smelting costs have increased, and the zinc price is strong. The shortage of zinc ore supports the price, and the supply pressure of refined zinc has been relieved. The demand side has improved, and the global zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 24,000 yuan and hold a long - at - low strategy [28][31]. - **Tin**: The price of tin rose at the end of the session, but the spot trading was cold. The supply has increased, while the demand of solder enterprises is under pressure. The short - term price is affected by market sentiment, and a long - at - low strategy is recommended for the long - term [31][34]. - **Nickel**: The impact of news has been digested, and the price is in a shock - falling pattern. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is generally stable. It is expected to be in a strong - range shock, with a reference range of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan [34][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is in a shock - adjustment pattern, with a game between cost and supply - demand. The cost is supported by the rise in raw material prices, but the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a shock adjustment, with a reference range of 14,000 - 15,000 yuan [37][39]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The regulatory environment has been strengthened, and the price rose at the end of the session. The supply is expected to decline due to pre - holiday overhauls, while the demand maintains a certain resilience. It is expected to be in a strong - range shock, with a reference range of 170,000 - 185,000 yuan [40][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price has fallen slightly, and the futures price has risen and then fallen. The supply is expected to decrease in February, and the demand is better than expected due to export rush, but the inventory is still accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the production reduction process and price changes [44][46]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price has risen and then fallen. The supply is expected to decrease in February, and the demand is expected to decline slightly. The inventory is accumulating. It is expected to be in a shock pattern, with a reference range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan [46][49]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price is stable, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar has widened. The cost has fallen, and the profit has expanded. The production is at a low level and stable, and the demand is seasonally weak. The inventory has entered a seasonal accumulation cycle. It is expected to be in a range - bound pattern, with a reference range of 3,100 - 3,200 yuan for rebar and 3,250 - 3,350 yuan for hot - rolled [49][50]. - **Iron Ore**: Vale's accident has limited impact on supply. The global iron ore shipment has decreased slightly, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The iron ore price is under pressure due to factors such as the lower - than - expected resumption of pig iron production and the gradual fulfillment of steel mill restocking. It is recommended to short at around 800 yuan [51][52]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal in Shanxi has loosened, and the price of Mongolian coal has fallen from a high level. The supply has increased, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased moderately. It is expected to be in a weak - shock pattern, with a reference range of 1,000 - 1,150 yuan [53][57]. - **Coke**: The price increase of coke by mainstream coke enterprises is difficult to implement, and the port trade price has fallen. The supply is affected by coking coal prices, and the demand is related to pig iron production. The inventory has increased moderately. It is expected to be in a weak - shock pattern, with a reference range of 1,600 - 1,750 yuan [58][59]. - **Silicon Iron**: There is no major contradiction between supply and demand, and the cost has an upward expectation. The production is at a low level and stable, and the demand is relatively stable. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock pattern, with a reference range of 5,500 - 5,900 yuan [60][61]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The replenishment of manganese ore is approaching the end, and the supply - demand situation has improved. The supply is at a low level and stable, and the demand is related to pig iron production. The inventory is at a relatively high level. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock pattern, with a reference range of 5,600 - 6,000 yuan [62][65]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The bottom of soybean meal is strongly supported, and the upper space is affected by cost and arrival. The domestic spot supply is loose, and the开机 rate is high. The arrival in the first quarter is expected to be low, and there is uncertainty in the arrival rhythm. It is expected to be in a shock pattern [66][67]. - **Live Pigs**: The slaughter pressure has increased, and the supply - demand game has intensified. The spot price is in a weak - shock pattern, and the supply pressure is increasing. It is expected to be in a bottom - range shock pattern [68][69]. - **Corn**: The long - short game has intensified, and the price is in a high - level shock pattern. The price in the Northeast is stable and strong, and the price in the North China is up and down. The demand side has different inventory levels, and the policy has a certain impact. It is expected to be in a high - level shock pattern [70][71]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar is in a shock - consolidation pattern, and the domestic price has limited fluctuations. The production in Brazil has decreased in the second half of December, and the production in Thailand is slow. The domestic terminal procurement is light, and the price is supported by cost. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [72][74]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton has recovered its decline, and the domestic price continues to adjust. The US cotton is in a low - level shock pattern, and the domestic cotton is supported by high consumption and planting area adjustment expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 14,500 yuan [74][75]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable and strong, and the sentiment towards high prices is cautious. The supply is sufficient and stable, and the demand is different in the north and south. It is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [76][77]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil is in a strong - consolidation pattern. The price of soybean oil is affected by the high price of related oils, and the price of rapeseed oil is affected by geopolitical factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory changes of palm oil and the impact of geopolitical factors on rapeseed oil [78][80]. - **Jujubes**: The stocking is approaching the end, and the price has rebounded slightly. The acquisition in Xinjiang has ended, and the sales in the distribution area are light. The futures price is at a low - valuation level, and it is recommended to pay attention to the post - festival weather and inventory [81][83]. - **Apples**: The demand has increased, and the futures price has increased with increased positions. The trading in the spot market has improved slightly, but the sales of farmers' goods are still limited. The inventory has decreased, but the inventory pressure of ordinary apples is large. It is recommended to pay attention to the post - festival inventory [84][85]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The supply - demand situation is weak in the near term and strong in the long term, and the price is in a high - level shock pattern before the Spring Festival. The supply and demand in the first quarter are weaker than expected, but the price has strong support in the second quarter. It is recommended to be bullish in the medium term and operate within the range of 7,100 - 7,500 yuan in the short term [86][87]. - **PTA**: Due to the expected seasonal inventory accumulation, the price is in a high - level shock pattern before the Spring Festival. The supply and demand are gradually weakening, but the price has limited downward space due to the expected improvement in the second quarter. It is recommended to be bullish in the medium term, operate within the range of 5,100 - 5,400 yuan in the short term, and conduct a positive arbitrage between TA5 and TA9 [88][89]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price follows the raw material fluctuations. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA and reduce the processing margin when it is high [90][91]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: Multiple bottle - grade PET plants are under maintenance, and the factory is continuously reducing inventory, which supports the processing margin. The supply is expected to decline, and the demand will be seasonally weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 6,200 yuan for PR2603 and expect the processing margin to fluctuate within the range of 400 - 550 yuan [92][93]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand expectation is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. It is recommended to conduct a positive arbitrage between EG5 and EG9 and sell out - of - the - money put options on EG2605 - P - 3800 at a high price [94]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has improved, but the high inventory suppresses the price. The supply has decreased slightly, and the downstream load has increased. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce the EB - BZ spread when it is high [95][96]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is gradually weakening, and the high - valuation price is under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce the EB - BZ spread when it is high [97][98]. - **LLDPE**: The order placement has worsened, and the trading has weakened. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. It is recommended to stop profit on previous long positions and wait and see [99]. - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is in a shock pattern. The unexpected maintenance has increased, and the inventory pressure has been relieved. It is recommended to wait and see [100]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price is in a strong shock, and the basis is weak. The market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. It is recommended to take profit on long positions when geopolitical tensions ease [100][101]. - **Caustic Soda**: