Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC contract V2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly; for iron ore 12605, short - selling is recommended; corn C2603 is expected to fluctuate strongly and buying on dips is advised; silver AG2604 has a complex situation with price fluctuations and corresponding operation suggestions [3]. - In the stock index sector, after the index breaks through the previous high, there are signs of concentrated main lines and narrowing heat. It is recommended to take partial profit on single - side long futures, hold bull spread combinations, and consider building covered call combinations on dips. Among them, IC components are more in line with the main - line structure and perform stronger [3]. - In the bond market, after continuous decline, there is a slight rebound due to the shock of the equity market and loose capital. However, the bond market sentiment is still suppressed by factors such as the spring rally of equities, inflation recovery expectations, and supply disturbances. It is still difficult to say that it has stabilized. For single - side strategies, it is recommended to wait and see, and for curve strategies, it is still inclined to steepen in the medium term [3]. - For precious metals, gold long positions should be held above $4300, and attention should be paid to the rise of the gold - silver ratio. For silver, it is recommended to keep a light - position long strategy above $70. For platinum and palladium, it is recommended to buy on dips near the 20 - day moving average, and short the platinum - palladium ratio can be tried [3]. - The shipping index EC2602 is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term; steel prices will maintain a fluctuating trend, with specific price ranges for rebar and hot - rolled coils [3]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different price trends and operation suggestions, such as copper prices adjusting in a fluctuating manner, and corresponding operation suggestions for aluminum, zinc, etc. [3]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon futures have limit - down, and lithium carbonate has wide - range fluctuations. Different products have different operation suggestions [3]. - In the chemical industry, different chemical products have different price trends and operation suggestions, such as PX and PTA fluctuating in specific ranges and having low - buying strategies in the medium term [3]. - In the agricultural products sector, different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar are expected to have range - bound fluctuations, and different operation suggestions are given for each [3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Index breakthrough leads to concentrated main lines and narrowing heat. It is recommended to take partial profit on single - side long futures, hold bull spread combinations, and consider building covered call combinations on dips. IC components perform stronger [3]. Bond Market - After continuous decline, there is a slight rebound due to equity market shock and loose capital. But sentiment is suppressed, and it is difficult to say it has stabilized. Single - side strategies: wait and see; Curve strategies: inclined to steepen in the medium term [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: hold long positions above $4300, pay attention to the rise of the gold - silver ratio; Silver: keep a light - position long strategy above $70; Platinum and palladium: buy on dips near the 20 - day moving average, short the platinum - palladium ratio can be tried [3]. Shipping - The shipping index EC2602 is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term [3]. Steel - Steel prices maintain a fluctuating trend, with rebar fluctuating in the range of 3000 - 3200 and hot - rolled coils in the range of 3150 - 3350 [3]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Different non - ferrous metals have different price trends and operation suggestions, such as copper price adjustment, and corresponding operations for aluminum, zinc, etc. [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures have limit - down, lithium carbonate has wide - range fluctuations, and different products have different operation suggestions [3]. Chemical Industry - Different chemical products have different price trends and operation suggestions, such as PX and PTA fluctuating in specific ranges and having low - buying strategies in the medium term [3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar are expected to have range - bound fluctuations, and different operation suggestions are given for each [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - For gold, as funds quickly exit the market before the Spring Festival and the price correction is in place, the market may focus on the impact of US economic data such as non - farm payrolls on the Fed's policy and geopolitical disturbances. Gold long positions above $4300 should be held, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For silver, long - position funds have significantly increased holdings through ETFs and physical delivery, driving the price to run strongly. The global inventory shortage may not be truly alleviated, but high prices may suppress industrial demand. After exchanges like CME raise margins, the irrational upward movement driven by short - term capital sentiment is expected to end, leading to volatility reduction. Attention should be paid to the potential回调 risk caused by the rebalancing of the global commodity index, and in high - volatility markets, a light - position, low - buying strategy above $70 is recommended [1]. - For platinum and palladium, due to strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and relatively undervalued prices compared to gold, funds are driving value re - evaluation. They are expected to continue to rise in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, as market speculative sentiment weakens and volatility narrows, and with a strong external market, platinum and palladium can be bought lightly at around the 20 - day moving average. Palladium is relatively stronger, and shorting the platinum - palladium ratio can be attempted [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 997.94 yuan/g on January 8, down 0.96 yuan or 0.10% from January 7 [1]. - AG2604 contract closed at 18,450 yuan/kg on January 8, down 840 yuan or 4.35% from January 7 [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 575.00 yuan/g on January 8, down 23.50 yuan or 3.93% from January 7 [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 460.70 yuan/g on January 8, down 15.25 yuan or 3.20% from January 7 [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at $4487.90 on January 8, up $20.80 or 0.47% from January 7 [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at $76.69 on January 8, down $1.29 or - 1.65% from January 7 [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at $2282.60 on January 8, down $7.80 or - 0.34% from January 7 [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at $1833.50 on January 8, up $16.50 or 0.91% from January 7 [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at $4477.56 on January 8, up $21.49 or 0.48% from January 7 [1]. - London silver was at $76.97 on January 8, down $1.30 or - 1.66% from January 7 [1]. - Platinum spot was at $2267.45 on January 8, down $30.55 or - 1.33% from January 7 [1]. - Palladium spot was at $1780.26 on January 8, up $24.53 or 1.40% from January 7 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 995.86 yuan/g on January 8, down 3.34 yuan or - 0.33% from January 7 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 18,338 yuan/10g on January 8, down 1027 yuan or - 5.30% from January 7 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold 9995 was at 580 yuan/g on January 8, down 26 yuan or - 4.26% from January 7 [1]. Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 2.08, down 2.38 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 69.00% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 112, down 187 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 0.00% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 10.34, up 0.69 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 73.40% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.28, down 0.01 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 90.70% [1]. Price Ratios - The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 58.52, up 1.23 or 2.16% from the previous value [1]. - The SHFE gold/silver ratio was 54.09, up 2.31 or 4.45% from the previous value [1]. - The NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.24, down 0.02 or - 1.24% from the previous value [1]. - The GZFE platinum/palladium ratio was 1.25, down 0.01 or - 0.75% from the previous value [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.19%, up 0.04 percentage points or 1.0% from the previous value [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.49%, up 0.02 percentage points or 0.6% from the previous value [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.92%, up 0.04 percentage points or 2.1% from the previous value [1]. - The US dollar index was 98.86, up 0.12 or 0.12% from the previous value [1]. - The on - shore RMB exchange rate was 6.9823, down 0.0112 or - 0.16% from the previous value [1]. Inventory and Positions - The SHFE gold inventory was 97,653, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The SHFE silver inventory was 637,647 kg on January 8, up 84,218 kg or 15.22% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 36,387,376, down 16,076 or - 0.04% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 442,479,414, down 3,257,982 or - 0.73% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19,345,676, up 16,280 or 0.08% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 127,180,871, down 5,093 or 0.00% from the previous value [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1,067, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 16,215, up 115.60 or 0.72% from the previous value [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From January 5th to January 11th, 2026, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 1 ship from last week, a week-on-week increase of 8%. The total arrival volume is about 479,000 cubic meters, an increase of 70,500 cubic meters from last week, a week-on-week increase of 17% [3] - The 01 contract continues to have a deep discount for delivery, and the buyer's willingness to take delivery remains poor. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expectation of a decrease in later shipments. However, demand remains weak and the upside is limited. Overall, there is a lack of contradictions, with limited upward and downward drivers, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - On January 8th, the price of log 2601 was 742.0, unchanged from the previous day; log 2603 was 778.5, down 3.5 from the previous day, a decline of 0.45%; log 2605 was 789.0, down 1.5 from the previous day, a decline of 0.19%; log 2607 was 800.5, down 1.5 from the previous day, a decline of 0.19% [1] - The basis of the main contract was -38.5 on January 8th, up 3.5 from the previous day [1] - Spot prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on January 8th [1] - The latest round of foreign market quotes for 4-meter medium A radiata pine was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2 US dollars; the CFR price of 11.8-meter spruce remained unchanged at 124 euros per JAS cubic meter [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 9th, the RMB to US dollar exchange rate was 6.981, down 0.002 from the previous day, a decline of 0%; the import theoretical cost was 756.29 yuan, down 13.52 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 2% [1] Supply: Monthly - As of November 30th, the shipping volume from the port was 1.914 million cubic meters, an increase of 22,000 cubic meters from October 31st, an increase of 1.16% [1] - The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 52 on November 30th, an increase of 3 from the previous month, an increase of 6.12% [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory - As of January 2nd, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week, an increase of 5.12%. Among them, the inventory in Shandong was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters from the previous week, an increase of 5.29% [1][3] Demand - As of January 2nd, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 18,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a decrease of 3%. In Shandong, it was 28,900 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week, an increase of 4%; in Jiangsu, it was 21,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 27,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a decrease of 11% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports Group 2: Report Core Views Pure Benzene - Styrene - Short - term supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is weak, with limited price drivers, and BZ2603 may oscillate between 5300 - 5600 [1] - Short - term styrene price is supported by exports, but there is an inventory build - up expectation around the Spring Festival, and the rebound space is limited [1] Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is high in January, and the supply - demand situation is expected to weaken. It is expected to oscillate between 7000 - 7500 in the short term and be considered for low - buying in the medium term [2] - PTA may be affected by inventory build - up in the first quarter, with limited self - driven factors, and will follow raw material fluctuations. It is expected to oscillate between 5000 - 5200 in the short term [2] - MEG has a large inventory build - up expectation in the near term, and its price is under pressure. Strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options and conducting high - selling and low - buying spreads [2] - Short - fiber supply - demand pattern is weak, and its absolute price has limited drivers, following raw material fluctuations in the short term [2] - Bottle - chip supply is expected to decline, and it will follow cost fluctuations in January, with limited processing fee upside [2] Urea - Urea supply is high in the short term, and demand is weak. Without new stimuli, the price may be in a weak oscillation [3] PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda supply exceeds demand, and the price is expected to be stable and weak. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement volume and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [4] - PVC supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and the market may face a decline after reaching a high [4] Polyolefins - LLDPE supply is expected to decrease marginally, and demand is in a seasonal off - season. PP supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to turn to inventory reduction in January, with short - term strength [6] Crude Oil - International oil prices rebounded significantly, but the increase is limited due to the weak supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash supply increases, demand is stable, and the overall supply - demand pattern is in surplus. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [9] - Glass supply decreases, demand weakens seasonally, and the upward space of the market is limited [9] Natural Rubber - Supply in Southeast Asia increases, but overseas raw material prices may remain high. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The rubber price has fallen from a high, and attention should be paid to Thai raw material conditions [11] Methanol - Methanol futures fell due to certain news, and the MTO industry faces losses. The inland market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand [13] LPG - LPG prices are in a downward trend. The upstream and downstream operating rates show different trends, and inventory changes vary [17] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - Upstream prices: Brent crude oil (March) rose 3.4% to 61.99 dollars/barrel; CFR China pure benzene rose 0.3% to 674 dollars/ton [1] - Styrene - related prices: Styrene East China spot price fell 0.1% to 6890 yuan/ton; EB cash flow (non - integrated) fell 7.0% to 348 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream cash flows: Phenol cash flow fell 7.8% to - 1036 yuan/ton; EPS cash flow increased 220.0% to 60 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased 6.0% to 31.80 tons; Styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased 4.7% to 13.23 tons [1] - Operating rates: Asian pure benzene operating rate increased 2.3% to 78.7%; Styrene operating rate decreased 0.7% to 70.2% [1] Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream prices: Brent crude oil (March) rose 3.4% to 61.99 dollars/barrel; CFR China PX fell 1.6% to 886 dollars/ton [2] - Downstream product prices: POY150/48 price remained unchanged at 7911 yuan/ton; Polyester bottle - chip price fell 0.3% to 6032 yuan/ton [2] - PX - related spreads: PX - crude oil spread fell 6.2% to 433 dollars/ton; PX - naphtha spread fell 6.0% to 345 dollars/ton [2] - MEG: MEG port inventory decreased 0.7% to 73.0 tons; MEG to - port expectation increased 66.4% to 17.8 tons [2] - Operating rates: Asian PX operating rate increased 1.8% to 80.9%; PTA operating rate increased 10.3% to 78.1% [2] Urea - Futures prices: Urea 01 contract fell 0.77% to 1682 yuan/ton; 05 contract fell 0.78% to 1776 yuan/ton [3] - Spreads: 01 contract - 05 contract spread rose 1.09% to - 91 yuan/ton; UR - MA main contract spread rose 4.62% to - 475 yuan/ton [3] - Upstream raw materials: Anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) fell 1.11% to 890 yuan/ton; Steam coal port (Qinhuangdao) rose 0.43% to 700 yuan/ton [3] - Spot prices: Shandong (small - particle) urea rose 0.57% to 1760 yuan/ton; Shanxi (small - particle) urea fell 0.62% to 1610 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand: Domestic urea daily output increased 0.55% to 20.06 tons; urea plant - in inventory increased 0.29% to 102.22 tons [3] PVC and Caustic Soda - Spot and futures prices: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price remained unchanged at 2150 yuan/ton; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price fell 1.1% to 4650 yuan/ton [4] - Overseas quotes and export profits: FOB Middle - East port caustic soda price fell 1.4% to 365 dollars/ton; PVC export profit fell 118.7% to - 45.3 yuan/ton [4] - Supply: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased 0.2% to 88.7%; PVC total operating rate decreased 0.9% to 75.4% [4] - Demand: Alumina industry operating rate remained unchanged at 79.9%; Longzhong sample pipe material operating rate decreased 3.7% to 36.2% [4] - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda East China plant - in inventory decreased 2.6% to 22.1 tons; PVC total social inventory increased 0.6% to 51.4 tons [4] Polyolefins - Futures prices: L2601 closed at 6410 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; PP2605 closed at 6484 yuan/ton, down 0.03% [6] - Spreads: L15 spread fell 2.83% to - 218 yuan/ton; PP15 spread fell 12.64% to - 196 yuan/ton [6] - Spot prices: East China PP drawstring spot price remained unchanged at 6280 yuan/ton; North China LLDPE spot price rose 0.31% to 6480 yuan/ton [6] - Operating rates: PE device operating rate increased 0.52% to 83.7%; PP device operating rate decreased 1.65% to 75.5% [6] - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory increased 6.66% to 39.5 tons; PP trade - merchant inventory increased 15.52% to 20.5 tons [6] Crude Oil - Oil prices: Brent rose 3.39% to 61.99 dollars/barrel; WTI rose 3.16% to 57.76 dollars/barrel; SC fell 1.60% to 418.00 yuan/barrel [7] - Spreads: Brent M1 - M3 spread rose 37.50% to 0.77 dollars/barrel; WTI - Brent spread rose 6.55% to 4.23 dollars/barrel [7] - Refined oil prices: NYM RBOB rose 3.88% to 176.03 cents/gallon; ICE Gasoil rose 1.46% to 609.25 dollars/ton [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices: North China glass quote rose 0.99% to 1020 yuan/ton; Glass 2601 fell 0.30% to 1013 yuan/ton [9] - Soda ash prices: Northwest soda ash quote rose 2.33% to 880 yuan/ton; Soda ash 2605 fell 2.70% to 1239 yuan/ton [9] - Supply: Soda ash operating rate increased 5.93% to 84.70%; Float - glass daily melting volume decreased 0.92% to 15.01 tons [9] - Inventory: Glass factory inventory decreased 5.69% to 5551.80 tons; Soda ash factory inventory increased 4.25% to 157.25 tons [9] Natural Rubber - Spot prices: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF): Shanghai rose 0.63% to 15850 yuan/ton; Cup rubber: international market: FOB mid - price rose 1.16% to 52.30 Thai baht/kg [11] - Spreads: 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged at - 70 yuan/ton; 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at 60 yuan/ton [11] - Production: November Thailand rubber production fell 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons; November China rubber production increased 20.88% to 137.20 thousand tons [11] - Operating rates: Automobile tire: semi - steel tire operating rate decreased 3.46% to 65.89%; Automobile tire: full - steel tire operating rate decreased 0.22% to 58.02% [11] - Inventory: Bonded - area inventory increased 4.48% to 548344 tons; Natural rubber: factory - warehouse futures inventory: SHFE remained unchanged at 57959 tons [11] Methanol - Futures prices: MA2605 closed at 2231 yuan/ton, down 1.59%; MA59 spread fell 120.00% to - 4 yuan/ton [12] - Spreads: Taicang basis fell 600.00% to - 15 yuan/ton; MTO05 on - the - plate fell 13.33% to - 221 yuan/ton [12] - Spot prices: Inner Mongolia north - line spot price remained unchanged at 1848 yuan/ton; Henan Luoyang spot price fell 1.32% to 2058 yuan/ton [12] - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory increased 5.94% to 44.768 tons; Methanol port inventory increased 4.05% to 153.7 tons [13] - Operating rates: Upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate increased 0.54% to 78.09%; Downstream - external - procurement MTO device operating rate decreased 0.59% to 78.88% [13] LPG - Futures prices: Main PG2602 fell 0.62% to 4199 yuan/ton; PG2603 fell 0.87% to 4103 yuan/ton [17] - Spreads: South China spot - PG02 spread rose 0.77% to 781 yuan/ton [17] - External prices: FEI forward M1 contract fell 1.85% to 503.00 dollars/ton; CP swap M1 contract fell 1.15% to 517.00 dollars/ton [17] - Inventory: LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio rose 0.91% to 24.3%; LPG port inventory decreased 8.41% to 214 tons [17] - Operating rates: Upstream - major refinery operating rate remained unchanged at 75.11%; Downstream - PDH operating rate decreased 1.65% to 75.1% [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to macro - sentiment, and it is recommended to be cautious in operations. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2]. Aluminum Industry - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line. The aluminum price will maintain a high - level wide - range shock, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum operating in the range of 23,000 - 24,200 yuan/ton [5]. Nickel Industry - The nickel price has fallen significantly. The market is affected by Indonesia's unclear nickel - mine quota and geopolitical risks. The short - term price will be in a wide - range shock adjustment, with the main contract referring to the range of 130,000 - 135,000 [6]. Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless - steel market is affected by nickel - mine raw - material expectations. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term price is expected to be in a shock adjustment, with the main contract referring to the range of 13,200 - 14,000 [9]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The ADC12 price of aluminum alloy is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 22,000 - 23,200 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The lithium - carbonate market's fundamentals are weak in the off - season, but the post - holiday news boosts the sentiment. The price is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, and attention should be paid to the liquidity risk and regulatory possibility [13]. Copper Industry - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but the short - term price is over - valued irrationally. The short - term price will still maintain a relatively strong trend, and the volatility may increase [15]. Zinc Industry - The zinc price will fluctuate in the short term. The support comes from the tight domestic zinc - mine supply and low zinc - ingot inventory, and the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The industrial - silicon market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand in January. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [20]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon market has weak supply - demand fundamentals and high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see, pay attention to the increase in production cuts and the re - distribution of industrial - chain profits [22]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.25% to 355,050 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 128.57% to 800 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 72% to - 350 [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, tin - ore imports increased by 29.81%. In December, SMM refined - tin production decreased slightly by 0.06%. SHEF and social inventories decreased [2]. Aluminum Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.58% to 24,000 yuan/ton. The AL 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 70 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic - aluminum production increased by 3.97%. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 8.18% [5]. Nickel Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.73% to 149,050 yuan/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 310 yuan/ton to - 530 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined - nickel product output decreased by 9.38%, and imports increased by 30.08%. SHFE and social inventories increased [6]. Stainless Steel Industry - **Price and Spread**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price decreased by 1.08% to 13,800 yuan/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 2.5%. The net export volume increased by 25.31% [9]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.43% to 23,600 yuan/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16%. The recycled - aluminum alloy inventory decreased slightly [12]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.75% to 138,500 yuan/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 100 yuan/ton to - 540 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, lithium - carbonate production increased by 4.04%, and demand decreased by 2.5%. Total inventory decreased by 12.23% [13]. Copper Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 1.28% to 102,085 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 250 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic - copper production increased by 6.8%. The domestic mainstream port copper - concentrate inventory decreased by 16.65% [15]. Zinc Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.53% to 24,170 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, refined - zinc production decreased by 7.24%. The social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 11.69% [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry - **Price and Spread**: East - China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 445 yuan/ton to 440 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial - silicon production decreased by 1.15%. Xinjiang's production increased by 6.46%. Social inventory decreased by 0.9% [20]. Polysilicon Industry - **Price and Spread**: The main - contract price of polysilicon decreased by 8.04% to 53,610 yuan/ton. The current - month - to - first - continuous spread increased by 1,215 yuan/ton to 1,415 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: Polysilicon production decreased slightly by 0.83% on a weekly basis. The silicon - wafer inventory increased by 13.11% [22].

Group 1: Apple Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The apple market shows that the number of inquiries in production areas increases, the arrival volume at wholesale markets decreases, and prices are stable. As of January 7, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas is 720.90 million tons, with a slightly faster destocking speed compared to the previous week, but still lower than the same period last year. Affected by last year's weather and the price advantage of citrus, the pressure to clear apple inventory remains high. The futures market has a slight reduction in positions and is in a volatile adjustment phase. Attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking situation [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The price of the Apple 2605 (main contract) is 9531 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the previous value; the price of the Apple 2610 contract is 8451 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The futures position decreases by 7.82% [1]. - **Wholesale Market**: The arrival volume at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market, Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market, and Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market decreases by 58.33%, 55.56%, and 52.00% respectively [1]. - **Inventory and Profit**: The national cold - storage inventory is 720.90 million tons, down 1.73% from the previous value; the factory - warehouse delivery profit is 336 yuan/ton, down 12.50% [1]. Group 2: Red Dates Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Currently, downstream buyers purchase as needed, the number of buyers inspecting goods increases, and the transaction situation improves. The spot market price stabilizes, and the generation progress of new - season warehouse receipts accelerates. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking situation and the actual destocking progress. In the short term, there is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals, and the futures price fluctuates and consolidates due to the cooling market sentiment [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The price of the Red Dates 2605 (main contract) is 9075 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous value; the position increases by 2.55% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Cangzhou's super - grade red dates is 9470 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous value; the price of first - grade red dates remains unchanged [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The sum of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 3110, up 3.39% [3]. Group 3: Oilseeds and Oils Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Palm Oil**: With the release of the MPOB report next week, if there is a positive impact of improved exports in January after the release of negative factors, the Malaysian crude palm oil futures may rise to 4200 - 4250 ringgit. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures market is in a range - bound shock, and its future trend depends on the Malaysian palm oil trend and the pre - holiday stocking demand. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 8500 - 8600 yuan [9]. - **Soybean Oil**: The recent rise of CBOT soybeans supports CBOT soybean oil. However, due to the uncertainty of the industrial consumption of US soybean oil and the continuous decline of international crude oil, CBOT soybean oil is in a short - term narrow - range shock adjustment. After the adjustment, it may decline due to the upcoming South American soybean harvest. The domestic soybean oil fundamentals are good, but the overall stocking volume this year is lower than last year, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues to put pressure on the soybean market. Domestic soybean oil may decline after a short - term shock [9]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: If the trade relationship between China and Canada is repaired, it will help replenish the domestic rapeseed oil inventory. Affected by this negative sentiment, the Zhengzhou rapeseed oil leads the decline in the vegetable oil market. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of next week's consultations, and the market is generally regarded as weak [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Soybean Oil**: The price of the Y2605 contract is 7944 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous value; the basis is 502 yuan/ton, up 8.76% [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of the P2605 contract is 8612 yuan/ton, up 0.58% from the previous value; the basis remains unchanged [9]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of the OI605 contract is 8956 yuan/ton, down 1.53% from the previous value; the basis is 744 yuan/ton, down 7.58% [9]. Group 4: Corn and Corn Starch Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the corn market, the trading activity in the Northeast is average with stable prices, and in the North China region, there is a sentiment of hoarding, but enterprises are reluctant to raise prices due to losses. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises need to replenish inventory, but they are restricted by high prices, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. In terms of policies, the targeted auction of imported corn continues, and the corn bidding sales have started, which will suppress the upward space of corn prices. In the short term, the corn price is firm, but attention should be paid to policy changes [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Corn**: The price of the Corn 2603 contract is 2266 yuan/ton, up 0.80% from the previous value; the position increases by 2.41% [11]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the Corn Starch 2603 contract is 2546 yuan/ton, up 0.32% from the previous value; the basis is 167 yuan/ton, down 4.02% [11]. Group 5: Meal Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The US soybeans are strongly affected by funds and sentiment, and the market is looking forward to the USDA supply - demand report next Monday. With the continuous appreciation of the RMB, the Brazilian crushing margin is improving, and domestic purchasing is accelerating. The visit of Canada to China brings positive signals, and the price of domestic rapeseed meal drops, which drags down the soybean meal market. The domestic spot market remains loose, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories are still at a high level. Although the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low, the soybean meal price is in a short - term range - bound shock, with the upper limit affected by policies [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Soybean Meal**: The price of the M2605 contract is 2782 yuan/ton, down 1.03% from the previous value; the basis is 368 yuan/ton, up 19.09% [14]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of the RM2605 contract is 2358 yuan/ton, down 2.52% from the previous value; the basis is 82 yuan/ton, up 15.49% [14]. Group 6: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The Brazilian sugarcane crushing is coming to an end, and the market focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season has increased significantly. Thailand's sugar production is still lower than the same period last year. It is expected that the price will fluctuate horizontally in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents/pound in the short term. In the domestic market, the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand is coming, and the group transactions are good. However, considering that it is the peak season of the sugar - making season, the market is cautious, and the sugar price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The price of the Sugar 2605 contract is 5279 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous value; the position decreases by 2.33% [16]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Nanning's sugar remains unchanged at 5350 yuan/ton; the price of Kunming's sugar is 5230 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous value [16]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production cumulative value is 105 million tons, down 23.24% year - on - year; the sales volume cumulative value is 35 million tons, down 42.53% year - on - year [16]. Group 7: Live Pigs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot pig price has returned to a volatile pattern. After the New Year's Day, the market demand has declined significantly. The northern pig supply has decreased, but the high price has affected the slaughtering enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm. The southern demand has declined significantly, putting pressure on the spot price. Although there is still some supplementary stocking in the second - fattening market, the overall enthusiasm is weak. The market is betting on the pre - Spring Festival consumption, but it is expected that there will be a large - scale supply in January, and the futures price has limited upward space and may face pressure later [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The price of the main live - pig contract is 12200 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the previous value; the position decreases by 0.08% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The price of live pigs in Henan is 12900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous value; the price in Shandong is 13250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous value [17]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses is 225557, down 0.77% from the previous value; the self - breeding profit per head is - 35 yuan, up 73.41% from the previous value [17]. Group 8: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The ICE cotton futures have declined due to the weekly export sales report and technical pressure. The US cotton export sales have decreased. It is expected that the US cotton will maintain a volatile trend. In the domestic market, processing enterprises are strongly supporting prices, and the basis of cotton enterprises' quotations is strong. The core driving forces are the strong expectation of reduced cotton planting in Xinjiang and downstream inventory replenishment. However, it is restricted by the low cost of foreign cotton and the off - season demand. In the short term, the cotton price is in a bullish pattern, but there may be a callback after continuous price increases [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The price of the Cotton 2605 contract is 14740 yuan/ton, down 1.96% from the previous value; the position decreases by 6.76% [19]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Xinjiang's 3128B cotton is 15738 yuan/ton, up 1.05% from the previous value; the price of FC Index:M: 1% is 12599 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous value [19]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory is 578.47 million tons, up 8.1% month - on - month; the cotton outbound shipment volume is 53.46 million tons, up 22.6% month - on - month [19]. Group 9: Eggs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Based on the previous chick sales volume, it is estimated that the laying hens entering the egg - laying period in January are those hatched in September 2025, with a 1.53% month - on - month decrease in chick sales. The number of old hens to be slaughtered in January is expected to be more than the number of new - laying hens, and the laying - hen inventory may continue to decrease, alleviating the supply pressure. After the continuous increase in egg prices, the downstream market is resistant to high - priced goods, and the spot price remains stable with a slight upward trend. The inventory at all levels is low, and with the approaching of the traditional consumption peak season, the downstream stocking demand is emerging. However, considering the relatively loose supply, the main contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The price of the Egg 03 contract is 3009 yuan/500KG, down 0.07% from the previous value; the price of the Egg 04 contract is 3277 yuan/500KG, up 0.40% from the previous value [21]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price is 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.78% from the previous value; the basis is 238 yuan/500KG, up 12.86% from the previous value [21]. - **Industry Indicators**: The egg - feed ratio is 2.34, down 0.43% from the previous value; the breeding profit is - 26.60 yuan/feather, down 2.82% from the previous value [21].

Group 1: Precious Metals Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. Core View - Gold: After the pre - holiday capital quickly left the market and the price corrected, the future market may focus on the impact of US economic data such as non - farm payrolls on the Fed's policy and geopolitical disturbances. Hold gold long positions above $4300 and pay attention to the recovery of the gold - silver ratio [1]. - Silver: Long - position funds increased holdings through ETFs and physical delivery, driving the price to run strongly. The global inventory shortage may not be truly resolved, but high prices may suppress industrial demand. After the "irrational" upward trend ends, pay attention to the possible callback caused by the global commodity index rebalancing. It is recommended to maintain a light - position and low - buying strategy above $70 [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by funds, their values are being reshaped due to strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and undervalued prices compared to gold. They are expected to continue to rise in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, as market speculative sentiment weakens, it is recommended to buy platinum and palladium on dips near the 20 - day moving average, and try to short the platinum - palladium ratio as palladium is relatively stronger [1]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: On January 8, 2026, the AU2602 contract closed at 997.94 yuan/gram, down 0.10% from the previous day; the AG2604 contract closed at 18,450 yuan/kg, down 4.35%; the PT2606 contract closed at 575.00 yuan/gram, down 3.93%; the PD2606 contract closed at 460.70 yuan/gram, down 3.20% [1]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at $4487.90 on January 8, up 0.47% from the previous day; the COMEX silver主力 contract closed at $76.69, down 1.65%; the NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at $2282.60, down 0.34%; the NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at $1833.50, up 0.91% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at $4477.56 on January 8, up 0.48% from the previous day; London silver was at $76.97, down 1.66%; spot platinum was at $2267.45, down 1.33%; spot palladium was at $1780.26, up 1.40%. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 995.86 yuan/gram, down 0.33%; silver T + D was at 18,338 yuan/kg, down 5.30%; platinum 9995 was at 580 yuan/gram, down 4.26% [1]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 basis was - 2.08, down 2.38 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 69.00%; the silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 basis was - 112, down 187 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 0.00% [1]. - **Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 58.52, up 2.16% from the previous day; the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 54.09, up 4.45%; the NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.24, down 1.24%; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.25, down 0.75% [1]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.19%, up 1.0% from the previous day; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.49%, up 0.6%; the 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.92%, up 2.1%. The US dollar index was 98.86, up 0.12%; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9823, down 0.16% [1]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 97,653, unchanged from the previous day; silver inventory was 637,647 kg, up 15.22%. The COMEX gold inventory was 36,387,376, down 0.04%; silver inventory was 442,479,414, down 0.73%. The SPDR Gold ETF position was 1067, unchanged; the SLV Silver ETF position was 16,215, up 0.72% [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. Core View No core view explicitly mentioned in the provided content. Summary by Related Catalog - **Basis**: On January 8, 2026, the TS basis was 1.3950, with a change of 0.0071 from the previous day; the TF basis was 1.4169, with a change of 0.0051; the T basis was 1.4579, with a change of 0.0267; the TL basis was 1.4116, with a change of 0.0279 [3]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: For TS, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts was - 0.0360, with a change of - 0.0060; for TF, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts was 0.0000, with a change of - 0.0100; for T, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts was 0.0950, with a change of 0.0400; for TL, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts was - 0.1500, with a change of 0.0200 [3]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spread between TS and TF was - 0.0740; between TS and T was - 5.4320; between TF and T was - 2.1900; between TS and TL was - 8.6420; between TF and TL was - 5.4000; between T and TL was - 3.2100 [3]. Group 3: Container Shipping Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. Core View No core view explicitly mentioned in the provided content. Summary by Related Catalog - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) was 1312.71 points on October 27, up 15.11% from October 20; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.32 points, up 28.24%. The SCFI composite index was 1656.32 points on October 24, up 6.66% from October 17; the SCFI (European) was $1246/TEU, up 8.82%; the SCFI (US West) was $2153/FEU, up 11.21%; the SCFI (US East) was $3032, up 6.27% [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: On January 8, 2026, the EC2602 (main contract) was 1706.0 points, down 4.11% from the previous day; the basis of the main contract was - 214.7, up 5.6 from the previous day, with a change of - 2.54% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply was 3369.52 million TEU on January 8, up 0.00% from the previous day. The port on - time rate in Shanghai in December was 40.00%, down 18.50% from November; the port call volume in Shanghai was 345.00, up 5.83%. The monthly export amount was $3303.51 billion, up 8.23%. The euro - zone composite PMI in December was 51.50, down 2.46% from November; the EU consumer confidence index was - 13.70, down 0.74%; the US manufacturing PMI was 47.90, down 0.62%. The G7 group's OECD composite leading indicator was 100.57 in December, up 0.06% from November [6]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. Core View No core view explicitly mentioned in the provided content. Summary by Related Catalog - **Spot - Futures Spread**: The IF spot - futures spread was - 19.25, up 4.41 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 51.20% and an all - time historical percentile of 24.70%; the IH spot - futures spread was 0.34, up 1.66, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 68.40% and an all - time historical percentile of 58.20%; the IC spot - futures spread was - 80.14, down 7.66, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 34.40% and an all - time historical percentile of 6.50%; the IM spot - futures spread was - 150.99, down 43.72, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 40.00% and an all - time historical percentile of 8.70% [9]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: For IF, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts was - 11.60, up 0.20; the spread between the quarterly - month and current - month contracts was - 19.40, up 0.40. For IH, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts was - 0.80, up 1.40; the spread between the quarterly - month and current - month contracts was 0.80, up 1.40. For IC, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts was - 40.20, down 2.00; the spread between the quarterly - month and current - month contracts was - 75.00, down 8.00. For IM, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts was - 73.60, down 5.40; the spread between the quarterly - month and current - month contracts was - 133.40, down 9.20 [9]. - **Inter - variety Ratio**: The ratio of CSI 500/CSI 300 was 1.6663, up 0.0177, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 99.50% and an all - time historical percentile of 75.30%; the ratio of CSI 500/SSE 50 was 2.5286, up 0.0247, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 99.50% and an all - time historical percentile of 79.60%; the ratio of CSI 300/SSE 50 was 1.5175, down 0.0013, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 69.60% and an all - time historical percentile of 87.70%; the ratio of CSI 1000/CSI 300 was 1.6826, up 0.0274, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 96.70% and an all - time historical percentile of 61.60% [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices fluctuated within a range, with this week's data showing increased production, accumulated inventory, and a significant decline in apparent demand. The current demand is in a seasonal off - peak, while steel mill production has rebounded from a low level, resulting in increased supply and decreased demand, and inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. Before the Spring Festival, steel usually accumulates inventory seasonally. The decline in the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is not significant, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory accumulation is lower than expected. The raw materials, coking coal and iron ore, support steel prices due to strong supply - side expectations. The fluctuation range of rebar is expected to be between 3000 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coils between 3150 - 3350 [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to transition from a situation of loose supply and demand to a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is suppressed by high inventory on the upside and supported by the expectation of steel mill restocking on the downside, and it is expected to maintain high - level volatility. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment, policy expectations, and the rhythm of steel mill restocking. In the long term, negotiation situations should be monitored. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the recommended strategy is range - bound trading, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - For coke, the futures market saw a peak - to - fall trend, while the spot market is weakly stable. After the fourth round of price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting further price cuts and implementing production restrictions to maintain prices. The supply is recovering, and the demand is increasing as steel mills resume production after the New Year. The overall inventory is slightly increasing in the middle position, and the supply - demand situation has improved. The recommended strategy is to go short on the spot at high prices on a light - position basis and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal. For coking coal, the futures market continued to rise, and the spot market also showed a mixed performance. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is increasing as steel mills reduce losses and increase production. The overall inventory is slightly increasing in the middle position. The recommended strategy is to go short on the spot at high prices on a light - position basis and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - For ferrosilicon, the futures price dropped significantly, mainly affected by market sentiment. The supply is at a historically neutral - low level, with some potential for short - term increase. The demand from the steel - making industry has some support, and the non - steel demand, such as from the metal magnesium industry, is also strong. The cost is relatively stable, and the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 5500 - 6200. For silicomanganese, the futures price also decreased. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand from the steel - making industry is increasing. The manganese ore price provides support for the silicomanganese price. The supply - demand situation is in a state of slight oversupply but with overall balance in manganese elements. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the recommended strategy is range - bound trading, with a reference range of 5800 - 6300 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices showed different trends. For example, rebar in North China increased by 30 yuan/ton, while hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets and slab remained unchanged, while the cost of Jiangsu's electric - arc furnace and converter rebar increased slightly. The profit of rebar in South China increased by 48, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in North China increased by 5 [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase. The rebar output increased by 2.8 to 191.0, a 1.5% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 16.1 to 438.1, a 3.8% increase, while the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8 to 368.1, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 4.2 to 8.4, a 33.1% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 44.2 to 796.8, a 5.3% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 25.5 to 175.0, a 12.7% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, and the basis of the 05 - contract for different iron ore powders increased. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2.5 to 21.0, a 10.6% decrease, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 34.0 to 45.0, a 309.1% increase [4]. Supply - The global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 463.4 to 3213.7, a 12.6% decrease, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 76.9 to 11054.0, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.8 to 227.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 10.2 to 325.2, a 3.2% increase [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 45 ports increased by 41.8 to 15970.89, a 0.3% increase, and the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased by 86.4 to 8946.5, a 1.0% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) increased by 11, a 0.7% increase [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi's medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increased by 33, a 2.8% increase [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.9 to 63.6, a 1.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.9, a 0.1% increase [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory remained basically unchanged, with the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreasing by 5.5 to 86.1, a 6.0% decrease, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increasing by 1.7 to 645.7, a 0.3% increase [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. For example, the ferrosilicon 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5750.0 to 5350.0, and the silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia increased from 5300.0 to 5650.0 [7]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some manganese ores increased slightly, and the production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased significantly [7]. Supply - The production of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the production of silicomanganese decreased by 0.3 to 19.1 [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from the steel - making industry increased slightly [7]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of ferrosilicon in 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.5 to 6.9, a 7.1% increase, and the inventory of silicomanganese in 63 sample enterprises decreased by 1.1 to 38.3, a 2.8% decrease [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products. It assesses the supply - demand, price trends, and market sentiment of different products, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses. For example, in the financial derivatives sector, it analyzes the performance of stock index futures and bond futures; in the commodity sector, it covers metals, energy, and chemical products; in the agricultural products sector, it includes grains, oils, and fruits. [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily精选 - **PVC**: After the fading of emotional influence, both futures and spot prices declined. With increasing supply expectations and weak demand, the market is in an oversupply situation and may face a downward adjustment. [2] - **Iron Ore**: The price first rose and then fell, maintaining a range - bound oscillation. It will gradually shift from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand double - weak situation, with high - inventory pressure on the upside and steel mill restocking expectations on the downside. [3] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. However, high prices and policy supply supplements suppress the upward space. [4] - **Silver**: Tight inventory boosts the price. After the end of the short - term "irrational" rise driven by funds, attention should be paid to the callback risk caused by the global commodity index rebalancing. [5] 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, A - share major indexes showed mixed performance. The technology sector was strong, and there was a divergence between large - and small - cap indexes. The four major stock index futures contracts also had mixed performances, with some in a premium or discount state. [6][7] - **News**: Domestically, the warehouse index in December 2025 showed an upward trend; overseas, the Bank of Japan was optimistic about the economic outlook. [7][8] - **Funding**: On January 8, the trading volume in the A - share market was stable, and the central bank conducted net capital injections. [8] - **Operation Suggestion**: After the index breaks through the previous high, it is recommended to take partial profits on single - side long positions in futures, hold bullish spread portfolios, and consider constructing covered call portfolios at low prices. [8] 3.2.2 Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined. [9] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the inter - bank market funds were stable and loose. However, attention should be paid to the possible impact of increasing leverage on liquidity. [9] - **Operation Suggestion**: After three consecutive days of decline, the bond market rebounded slightly. It is recommended to continue to wait and see for single - side strategies and tend to steepen the yield curve in the medium - term for curve strategies. [10][11] 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The inflation expectations in the US increased, and the unemployment situation showed some changes. The adjustment of the weights of major commodity indexes led to short - term selling of gold and silver, but the decline was limited due to geopolitical risks and other factors. [12][13][14] - **Outlook**: The US economy shows structural differentiation, and the market's expectation of monetary policy easing may increase. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold above $4300 and pay attention to the recovery of the gold - silver ratio. For silver, it is advisable to maintain a light - position long strategy above $70. Platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to long - term. [14][15][16] 3.4 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index Performance**: As of January 5, the SCFIS European line index rose, while the US West route index fell. As of December 26, the SCFI composite index rose. [17] - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The Eurozone's December composite PMI was 51.5, and the US December manufacturing PMI was 47.9. [17] - **Logic**: The futures price declined, and the spot price entered a downward trend. It is expected to decline in the short - term. [17] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Spot**: As of January 8, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the market supply was sufficient while high prices suppressed consumption. [17] - **Macro**: The rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index and geopolitical issues affected the market sentiment. [18] - **Supply**: The copper concentrate TC was at a low level. The electrolytic copper production in December increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. [19] - **Demand**: The copper rod production rate was significantly lower than the seasonal level, and the downstream demand was weak. [19] - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic and COMEX copper inventories increased. [21] - **Logic**: The short - term price may be overvalued, but the medium - to long - term fundamentals are good. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices. [22] 3.5.2 Alumina - **Spot**: On January 8, the spot prices in different regions were stable or slightly decreased. The supply was gradually becoming more abundant, and the price was under pressure. [22] - **Supply**: In December 2025, the production increased slightly. Considering the losses of some small and medium - sized plants, the production may decrease slightly in January. [23] - **Inventory**: The port, factory, and electrolytic aluminum plant inventories all increased. [23] - **Logic**: The futures price declined, and the supply - demand fundamentals remained weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term. [24] 3.5.3 Aluminum - **Spot**: On January 8, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the spot market was inactive. [24] - **Supply**: In December 2025, the production increased. In the coming year, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may decline. [25] - **Demand**: The processing product's weekly production rates were differentiated, and the overall demand was weak. [26] - **Inventory**: The domestic and LME aluminum inventories showed different trends, with an overall increase in domestic inventories. [26] - **Logic**: The short - term funds showed a retreat sign. The macro environment is positive, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. [27] 3.5.4 Other Non - ferrous Metals - **Zinc**: The price oscillated and adjusted. The domestic zinc concentrate supply was tight, but the import window might open. The demand was relatively stable, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [31][32][34] - **Tin**: The price fell from a high level. The supply from Myanmar may increase, and the demand in the South China region was relatively stable. It is recommended to wait and see. [35][36][38] - **Nickel**: The price dropped significantly. The supply and demand were both weak, and the market was affected by news from Indonesia. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high prices. [38][39][40] - **Stainless Steel**: The price adjusted. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, but the demand in the off - season was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [41][42][43] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price fluctuated widely. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand was resilient but faced a decline in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see. [45][46][47] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price limit - down. The supply was expected to decrease, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [48][49][50] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price decreased due to the influence of polysilicon. The supply and demand were both weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the supply reduction situation. [50][51][52] 3.6 Black Metals 3.6.1 Steel - **Spot**: The futures price rose and then fell, and the spot price was weak. The cost pushed up the steel price, but the profit margin decreased. [52] - **Supply**: The production increased slightly, but the increase was limited considering the off - season demand. [53] - **Demand**: The demand decreased seasonally, and the inventory entered the accumulation stage. [53][54] - **View**: The steel price is expected to oscillate within a certain range, with raw material prices providing support. [54] 3.6.2 Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price decreased, and the futures price also declined. The demand was stable, and the supply was expected to decrease slightly. It is expected to oscillate at a high level. [55][56] - **View**: The iron ore market will transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand double - weak situation, with price fluctuations within a certain range. [56] 3.6.3 Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The futures price continued to rise, and the spot price in Shanxi was weak, while the Mongolian coal price followed the futures. [57][60] - **Supply**: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly. [58][59] - **Demand**: The steel mill's iron - making production increased, and the coking plant's production also increased. [58][59] - **View**: It is recommended to short lightly at high prices for single - side strategies and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke spread. [60] 3.6.4 Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The futures price first rose and then fell, and the fourth - round price cut in the spot market was implemented. [61][64] - **Supply**: The coking plant's production increased. [62] - **Demand**: The steel mill's iron - making production increased. [62] - **View**: It is recommended to short lightly at high prices for single - side strategies and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke spread. [64] 3.6.5 Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: The price decreased significantly. The supply was stable, and the demand from the steel and non - steel sectors had certain support. It is expected to oscillate within a range. [65][66] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price decreased. The supply was at a relatively low level, and the demand was stable. The manganese ore price provided support. It is expected to oscillate widely. [67][68][69] 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - **Spot Market**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends. The trading volume of soybean meal increased. [70] - **Fundamentals**: The expected export volume of Brazilian soybeans to China may decrease, and the soybean harvest in Brazil is in the early stage with good yields. [71] - **View**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate within a range, affected by the USDA report and domestic supply - demand. [72] 3.7.2 Other Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The spot price was stable. After the New Year, the demand decreased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The futures price may face pressure. [73][74] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. High prices and policy supplements suppress the upward space. [75][76][77] - **Sugar**: The Brazilian sugar - making season is ending, and the focus is on the northern hemisphere. The domestic price is expected to oscillate at a low level. [78] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price may oscillate, and the domestic cotton price is expected to be bullish in the short - term but may face a callback. [80][81] - **Eggs**: The supply may decrease, and the demand is cautious. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. [82][83] - **Oils**: The prices of different oils showed different trends. Palm oil may break through after the MPOB report; soybean oil may decline; and rapeseed oil is affected by Sino - Canadian trade relations and is weak in the short - term. [84][86][87] - **Jujubes**: The market trading was light, and the futures price decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds. [89] - **Apples**: The price was under pressure. The market is in a game between the scarcity of high - quality fruits and the inventory pressure of ordinary fruits. It is recommended to use put options to protect long positions. [90] 3.8 Energy Chemicals 3.8.1 PX - **Spot and Profit**: The price decreased, and the profit margin was compressed. [91] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply was at a high level, and the demand was weak. [91][93] - **View**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and may be bullish in the medium - term. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [93] 3.8.2 Other Energy Chemical Products - **PTA**: The futures price decreased, and the supply - demand was expected to weaken in the first quarter. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate in the short - term, and go long at low prices in the medium - term. [94][95] - **Short - fiber**: The supply was high, and the demand was weak. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate. [96] - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply and demand are expected to decrease in January, and the processing fee has limited upward space. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy. [98][99] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is under pressure due to the expected inventory accumulation. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options and conduct reverse spreads. [100] - **Pure Benzene**: The price is under pressure due to high inventory, but the demand has slightly improved. It is expected to oscillate at a low level. [101][102] - **Styrene**: The price is supported in the short - term but may face inventory accumulation. It is recommended to wait and see and short the processing fee at high prices. [103][104] - **LLDPE**: The supply is expected to decrease marginally, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract in the short - term. [105] - **PP**: The price is strong due to increased maintenance. It is recommended to hold the profitable PDH positions. [106] - **Methanol**: The demand - side maintenance increased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. [106] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak and stable. [107][108] - **PVC**: The price decreased due to weak supply - demand and high inventory. It may face a downward adjustment. [109][110] - **Urea**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, affected by the Indian tender and cost factors. [111][112] - **Soda Ash**: The price oscillates, and the supply - demand is in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see. [113][115] - **Glass**: The price is strong, supported by cost and winter - storage policies. It is recommended to wait and see. [113][116] - **Natural Rubber**: The price declined due to weak market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. [116][118][119] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price continued to rise, although the fundamental support was limited. It is recommended not to short in the short - term. [119][120][121]

免责声明 | 贵金属期现日报 | | | | TE FEAR | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 2026年1月8日 | | | | | | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 1月7日 | 1月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2602合约 | 998.90 | 1004.98 | -6.08 | -0.60% | 元/克 | | AG2604合约 | 19290 | 19452 | -162 | -0.83% | 元/千克 | | PT2606合约 | 598.50 | 616.80 | -18.30 | -2.97% | 元/克 | | PD2606合约 | 475.95 | 471.90 | 4.05 | 0.86% | | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 1月7日 | 1月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 4467.10 | 4505.70 | ...