Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The uncertainty of copper has increased, and the price is fluctuating [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 100,380 with a daily decline of 1.91%, and the closing price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 12,901 with a daily increase of 0.35%. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 317,735, an increase of 74,706 from the previous day, and the position was 553,829, a decrease of 6,837. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 11,678, a decrease of 10,436, and the position was 318,000, a decrease of 4,000 [1] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai copper was 196,680, an increase of 9,501 from the previous day, and the inventory of LME copper was 235,150, an increase of 38,500. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME copper was 4.37%, a decrease of 6.64% [1] - **Spread Data**: The LME copper premium was -83.05, an increase of 11.66 from the previous day. The bonded warehouse receipt premium was 33, a decrease of 1, and the bonded bill of lading premium was 35, a decrease of 2. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 88,600, a decrease of 1,300. The spot - futures near - month spread was 0, an increase of 60; the near - month contract to the first - continuous contract spread was -510, a decrease of 150; the cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying the near - month and selling the first - continuous contract was 227. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash was -509, an increase of 466; the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - three contract and LME 3M was -107, an increase of 583; the spread between Shanghai copper spot and Shanghai 1 recycled copper was 3,037, a decrease of 61; the import profit and loss of recycled copper was 655, an increase of 23 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: Concerns about AI have intensified, and the risk of a tariff war has reignited. The three major US stock indexes closed down by at least about 1%. The US Customs will stop collecting tariffs ruled illegal by the Supreme Court from February 24. The US Democratic Party will prevent any attempt to extend tariffs and promote a mandatory refund plan. The European Parliament has suspended the approval of the EU - US trade agreement [1][3] - **Industry News**: Harmony Gold Company said that the newly acquired Australian copper mine needs two years for transformation. Chilean state - owned miner Codelco's copper production in December 2025 increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 181,400 tons. In December 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.2506 million tons, the consumption was 2.1526 million tons, and the supply surplus was 98,000 tons [1][3]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The speculation sentiment in Shanghai nickel still exists, and continuous attention should be paid to the contradictions in nickel ore [1] - The cost support center of stainless steel has moved up, but inventory accumulation in the off - season restricts its elasticity [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 135,190, down 4,420 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,860, down 110 from T - 1 [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 379,528, down 54,310 from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 223,883, up 3,871 from T - 1 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel was 135,500, down 5,250 from T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,052, unchanged from T - 1 [1] - The price of red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 65, unchanged from T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 31,950, unchanged from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1] - Indonesia will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026 and start levying royalties on cobalt as an independent commodity [2] - Some Indonesian mining companies face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiahs for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final amount may be lower [2] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port warehousing and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in consultation [3] - Indonesia has started approving the 2026 mining work plans and budgets (RKAB), and the approved nickel ore production quota is between 2.6 and 2.7 billion tons [3][4] - A Swiss investment group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [3] - Philippine miners say the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [4] - A landslide occurred in a tailings area of the IMIP park in Indonesia, causing one death and suspending operations in the affected area [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [6]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 铂：受白银走强提振 钯：关税扰动再起，震荡偏强 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 523. 80 | | -3.87% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 525. 05 | | -2.96% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2171. 40 | | 4. 10% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2151.50 | | 3.44% | | | | 锂金期货2606 | 416. 80 | | -3.08% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货铝金 | 395. 00 | | -1.50% | | | | 纽约锂主连(前日) | 1.736.10 | | 2. 36% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金(前日) | 1.765.00 | | 5.15% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | ...

2026 年 02 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：地缘扰动油价上涨，基本面逻辑延续 节前 豆油：美豆平稳运行，豆油区间反弹 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.96% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 8,698 | | / | / | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,054 | -0.35% | / | / | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,038 | -0.10% | / | / | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,084 | -0.15% | 4,114 | 0.76% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 59.85 | 0.93% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 297,379 | -31236 | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 纸浆：震荡运行 20260224 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | | 项目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.260 | 5, 238 | +22 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | - | 5, 254 | | | | | 成交量(手) | 164. 325 | 152. 334 | +11.991 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 269.664 | 280.912 | -11.248 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 154. 612 | 151, 415 | +3. 197 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -18.079 | -17.850 | -229 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | -10 | 12 | -22 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -680 | -658 | -22 | | | 月差 | SP03-SP ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, inventory, cost, and profit data, and also mentions a renewable energy cooperation project [2]. - The trend strength of both industrial silicon and polysilicon is rated as neutral, with a value of 0 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2605 closing price is 8,395 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 105 yuan compared to T - 5; the trading volume and open interest show different changes. For polysilicon, the PS2605 closing price is 49,305 yuan/ton, with a small increase compared to T - 1. The trading volume and open interest also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount shows different values when benchmarked against different grades, and polysilicon's spot premium or discount (benchmarked against N - type re - investment) is +3,945 yuan/ton, with a decrease compared to previous periods [2]. - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 is 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 53,250 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 350 yuan compared to T - 5. The prices of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also have different changes [2]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553 are - 2,736.5 yuan/ton and - 5,616 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to previous periods. Polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.9 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1 [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.7 tons, with a decrease of 0.5 tons compared to T - 5. The enterprise inventory and industry inventory also show corresponding changes. The polysilicon factory inventory is 34.9 tons, with an increase of 0.8 tons compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions have different stability or change trends [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On January 28, China Pingmei Shenma Group, LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd., and the Zambian government signed a renewable energy cooperation memorandum of understanding, planning to invest in a 1,000 - megawatt solar power project in the next three years [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2026 年 2 月 24 日 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，盘面具备底部支撑 | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 张 | 航 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 | zhanghang2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 152,640 | 3,220 | 19,720 | 4,440 | -9,300 | 65,700 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 300,191 | -4,607 | -286,515 | -252,477 | -288,828 | 170,287 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 342,226 | -11 ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 生猪：假期现货不及预期 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 12480 | | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11350 | | 500 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11860 | | 200 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 10740 | | -155 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11500 | | -40 | | | 货 | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12220 | | -10 | | | 期 ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 元/吨 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 CY2605 | 元/吨 | 14,740 20,530 | -0.34% -0.61% | - - | - - | | | ICE美棉5 | 美分/磅 | 65.22 | -0.50% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 308,077 | -9,834 | 1,007,658 | -27,068 | | | CY2605 | 手 | 0 | -1,999 | 0 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | 11,001 | 112 | 1,072 | -84 | | | 棉纱 | 张 | 0 | 0 | 38 | ...

【现货消息】 春节期间，烧碱现货无变化，液氯仍维持补贴。 期货研究 烧碱：成本支撑，震荡为主 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 05合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2243 640 2000 -243 2026 年 2 月 24 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【市场状况分析】 期货研究 春节期间，液氯维持弱势，山东液氯价格维持补贴，对烧碱价格产生支撑。春节后，烧碱高库存情况下， 短期大幅上涨空间或有限。考虑到节后仅 4 个交易日就进入 03 合约交割，目前烧碱仓单 895 手，交割压力 仍较大。市场或先交易交割压力，之后再考虑未来减产预期，下游需求环比改善等。 从基本面看，氧化铝随着产能减产，供需结构逐渐逆转，关注后期大规模产能投产带来的增量需求。非 铝下游季节性淡季，3 月份刚需将持续回升，出口保持坚挺，美国价格偏高，欧洲转向亚洲采购烧碱。供应 端看，山东现货价格已贴近现金流成本，3 月份之后减产和降负预期增强。 整体看，液氯持续补贴导 ...