1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily market analysis and trading suggestions for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, etc. Each product has its own market situation, trend, and influencing factors. For example, some products are in a high - level or low - level shock state, some are affected by supply - demand relationships, and others are influenced by macro - events [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Conditions**: PX is in a high - level shock market; PTA's valuation declines as oil prices fall; MEG is in a short - term shock market [2][4]. - **Data**: PX's main contract closed at 6618 yesterday, down 8; PTA's main contract closed at 4614, down 2; MEG's main contract closed at 4069, down 40 [5]. - **Market Dynamics**: PX prices fell today due to concerns about weak demand, while some PTA and PET producers' planned meetings may affect the market. A 700,000 - ton PTA device in Taiwan, China, has restarted. The planned arrival volume at the main ports for MEG from October 27 to November 2 is about 198,000 tons [6][7]. - **Suggestions**: For PX, go short on PXN at high levels. For PTA, pay attention to the results of the anti - involution meeting, and its processing fee is expected to expand in the short term. For MEG, there may be a short - term rebound, but the height is expected to be limited [8][9]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Conditions**: Due to the weakness of butadiene, the price of cis - butadiene rubber is under pressure [2][10]. - **Data**: The main contract of cis - butadiene rubber closed at 10,805 yesterday, down 190. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu's mainstream market is 7,900, down 200 [10]. - **Analysis**: The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, and the short - term weakness of butadiene drives down the dynamic valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber. It is expected to have a wide - range shock pattern of capital game in the short term, and the medium - term price center will gradually move down [11][12]. 3.3 LLDPE - **Market Conditions**: Mainly in a shock state [2][13]. - **Data**: The L2601 contract closed at 6985 yesterday, down 0.20% [13]. - **Analysis**: The decline in crude oil prices affects PE. The rigid demand of downstream industries supports the market, and the inventory is decreasing. However, the supply pressure will gradually increase in the future, and the market is in a shock situation [13][14]. 3.4 PP - **Market Conditions**: Stop falling in the short term and fluctuate in the medium term [2][17]. - **Data**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6657 yesterday, down 0.37% [17]. - **Analysis**: Multiple factors cause downward pressure on PP, but recent oil price rebounds and supply - side production cuts lead to a short - term rebound. In the long term, it may be in a weak - shock pattern [18]. 3.5 Caustic Soda - **Market Conditions**: The far - month valuation is suppressed [2][23]. - **Data**: The 01 - contract futures price is 2341, and the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 [23]. - **Analysis**: The procurement price of alumina manufacturers has been reduced, and the high - inventory and low - profit situation of the alumina industry suppresses the valuation of caustic soda. The cost of caustic soda has also decreased recently [21][22]. 3.6 Glass - **Market Conditions**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][25]. - **Data**: The FG601 contract closed at 1113 yesterday, up 1.83% [26]. - **Analysis**: The domestic float - glass market price is mainly stable, with slight adjustments in some regions, and the overall sales are average [26]. 3.7 Methanol - **Market Conditions**: Under shock pressure [2][28]. - **Data**: The main contract of methanol closed at 2,241 yesterday, down 27 [29]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental pressure of methanol is large, but the valuation is moderately low. Affected by macro - events, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the medium - term price center will move down [31][32]. 3.8 Urea - **Market Conditions**: Spot trading weakens, and pressure gradually increases [2][33]. - **Data**: The main contract of urea closed at 1,635 yesterday, down 5 [33]. - **Analysis**: As the price of urea rises, downstream follow - up slows down. In November, the daily output increases while demand weakens, and the price is under pressure. The futures 01 contract may face pressure above 1660 yuan/ton [34][35]. 3.9 Styrene - **Market Conditions**: Mainly in a short - term shock state [2][36]. - **Data**: The styrene 2512 contract closed at 6,848 yesterday, down 95 [36]. - **Analysis**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the market mainly trades cost contradictions. The downstream is in a negative feedback stage, and the terminal demand has not improved. Pay attention to the marginal demand increase after the Sino - US negotiation [37]. 3.10 Soda Ash - **Market Conditions**: Little change in the spot market [2][39]. - **Data**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1,239 yesterday, with no change [40]. - **Analysis**: The domestic soda - ash market is weakly stable, the supply increases slightly, and the downstream demand is average. It is expected to be in a weak - shock pattern in the short term [40]. 3.11 LPG and Propylene - **Market Conditions**: The upward driving force of LPG is limited, and propylene is in a short - term weak - shock state due to loose supply - demand [2][42]. - **Data**: PG2512 of LPG closed at 4,266 yesterday, up 0.33%; PL2601 of propylene closed at 6,112, down 0.65% [42]. - **Analysis**: Pay attention to the cost changes of LPG. The supply - demand of propylene is loose, and the short - term trend is weak [42]. 3.12 PVC - **Market Conditions**: In a low - level shock state [2][51]. - **Data**: The 01 - contract futures price is 4716, and the spot price in East China is 4600 [49]. - **Analysis**: The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure. The reduction - production drive is insufficient, and the export growth may slow down, so the trend is still under pressure [49]. 3.13 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Conditions**: Fuel oil has a short - term retracement, and the fluctuation continues to expand. Low - sulfur fuel oil is temporarily stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [2][52]. - **Data**: FU2511 of fuel oil closed at 2,970 yesterday, down 1.39%; LU2511 of low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,231, down 0.89% [52]. - **Analysis**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil show different trends, and relevant data such as inventory and price difference are provided [52]. 3.14 Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Market Conditions**: In a shock - consolidation state [2][54]. - **Data**: The EC2512 contract closed at 1,788.3 yesterday, down 0.66%; the EC2602 contract closed at 1,548.7, down 2.44% [54]. - **Analysis**: The spot freight rate has an upward trend, and the supply - demand situation shows that the weekly average capacity in November increases. For the 2512 contract, consider a low - buying strategy; the 2602 contract has a stronger game nature [63][64][65]. 3.15 Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Market Conditions**: Both have a short - term rebound due to positive demand feedback [2][67]. - **Data**: The staple - fiber 2512 contract closed at 6,250 yesterday, up 8; the bottle - chip 2512 contract closed at 5,740, down 10 [67]. - **Analysis**: The staple - fiber futures follow the raw materials to be strong, and the factory price of bottle chips is raised. However, the trading atmosphere of bottle chips has declined [67][68]. 3.16 Offset Printing Paper - **Market Conditions**: In a low - level shock state [2][70]. - **Data**: The OP2601.SHF contract closed at 4226 yesterday, down 6 [70]. - **Analysis**: The price of offset printing paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable. Some paper mills issue price - increase letters, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [71][73]. 3.17 Pure Benzene - **Market Conditions**: Mainly in a short - term shock state [2][74]. - **Data**: The BZ2603 contract closed at 5495 yesterday, down 74 [74]. - **Analysis**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the market mainly trades cost contradictions. Pay attention to the changes in port inventory [74].

Report Overview - Date: October 29, 2025 - Report Name: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Slow destocking in producing areas, focus on downside support [2] - Soybean oil: Rebound in US soybeans, decline in the oil - meal ratio [2] - Soybean meal: Strong US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal rebounds and fluctuates [2] - Soybean: Strong and fluctuating [2] - Corn: Fluctuating weakly [2] - Sugar: Weak overseas, strong domestic [2] - Cotton: Higher cost of new cotton supports cotton futures prices [2] - Eggs: Maintaining adjustment [2] - Live pigs: Spot sentiment declines, waiting for confirmation [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil futures prices (day session: 8,958 yuan/ton, -1.56%; night session: 8,824 yuan/ton, -1.50%); soybean oil futures prices (day session: 8,182 yuan/ton, -0.63%; night session: 8,080 yuan/ton, -1.25%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads of related products are also provided [5]. - **News**: Indonesia's 2025 palm oil production is expected to increase by 10% to about 5,600 million tons, and exports are expected to be 3,000 - 3,100 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to increase by another 5%. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons [6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both -1 [10]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean 2601 futures price (day session: 4,115 yuan/ton, +0.66%; night session: 4,129 yuan/ton, +0.90%); DCE soybean meal 2601 futures price (day session: 2,975 yuan/ton, +1.40%; night session: 2,991 yuan/ton, +0.84%). Spot prices and industry data such as trading volume and inventory are also provided [11]. - **News**: On October 28, CBOT soybean futures hit a 15 - month high due to expectations of a Sino - US trade agreement [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is 0; soybean trend intensity is +1 [13]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: Corn futures prices (C2511: day session 2,109 yuan/ton, +0.38%; night session 2,105 yuan/ton, -0.19%; C2601: day session 2,123 yuan/ton, +0.28%; night session 2,123 yuan/ton, 0.00%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [15]. - **News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Shekou prices also decreased by 10 yuan/ton [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [17]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: Raw sugar price is 14.37 cents/pound, -0.09; mainstream spot price is 5,730 yuan/ton, 0; futures main contract price is 5,483 yuan/ton, +38. Spreads and basis are also provided [18]. - **News**: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, and exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons). The CAOC expects China's 25/26 sugar production to be 11.2 million tons, consumption to be 15.9 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601 futures price (day session: 13,565 yuan/ton, 0.00%; night session: 13,575 yuan/ton, 0.07%); CY2601 futures price (day session: 19,765 yuan/ton, -0.03%; night session: 19,785 yuan/ton, 0.10%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [21]. - **News**: Cotton spot trading is mostly sluggish, with some low - basis transactions being better. ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to optimistic expectations of international economic and trade relations [22][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [26]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg futures prices (egg 2511: 2,866 yuan/500 kg, -1.85%; egg 2601: 3,304 yuan/500 kg, -0.12%). Spreads, spot prices, and related industry data are also provided [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28]. Live Pigs - **Fundamentals**: Live pig spot prices (Henan: 12,630 yuan/ton; Sichuan: 12,300 yuan/ton; Guangdong: 12,360 yuan/ton). Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [30]. - **Market Information**: Yuexiu and Yangxiang added delivery warehouses. The national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Live pig trend intensity is 0 [31]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: Peanut spot prices (Liaoning 308 general: 8,200 yuan/ton; Henan Baisha general: 6,900 yuan/ton, -100; Xingcheng Xiaoriben: 7,900 yuan/ton, +40; Sudan refined rice: 8,650 yuan/ton, 0). Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [33]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, peanut prices are chaotic, and supply is not fully released. In Liaoning, farmers are reluctant to sell, and trading is stalemate. In Xingcheng, the market is active [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [37].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Nickel: The accumulation of smelting inventory and concerns about nickel ore are in a game, leading to a narrow - range oscillation of nickel prices [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is limited downward potential, but there is a lack of upward driving force [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The spot bidding price is at a high level, showing a strong - running trend [2][7]. - Industrial silicon: With the reduction of warehouse receipts, there is an obvious bottom support [2][11]. - Polysilicon: Market sentiment has cooled down, and there is a risk of a price decline [2][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,560 yuan, down 1,840 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 156,296 lots, an increase of 26,763 lots compared to T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,750 yuan, down 65 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume was 131,733 lots, a decrease of 80,991 lots compared to T - 1 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's forestry working group took over a nickel - mining area of PT WedaBav Nickel due to violations. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies and issued a ministerial order regarding the approval process of the RKAB. Trump claimed to impose a 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" [4][5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 80,800 yuan, down 320 yuan compared to T - 1, with a trading volume of 64,993 lots, a decrease of 4,495 lots compared to T - 1. The closing price of the 2601 contract was 81,640 yuan, down 260 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume was 729,307 lots, an increase of 214,852 lots compared to T - 1 [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. Some car brands announced New - Year - crossing purchase - tax subsidy plans. A subsidiary of Dazhong Mining obtained a mining license for a lithium mine in Hunan, which is expected to produce 80,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2601 contract for industrial silicon was 8,965 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan compared to T - 1, with a trading volume of 198,198 lots, an increase of 10,934 lots compared to T - 1. The closing price of the PS2601 contract for polysilicon was 54,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,195 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume was 238,898 lots, an increase of 69,856 lots compared to T - 1 [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In September, the total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. From January to September, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend; the trend intensity of polysilicon is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [14].

Report Date - The report is dated October 29, 2025 [1][5][8] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including copper, zinc, lead, etc., with most commodities expected to show oscillatory trends [2] Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision, prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 1 [2][5][7] - **Zinc**: Continuing to oscillate. The trend strength is 0 [2][8][10] - **Lead**: Overseas inventories are continuously decreasing, supporting prices. The trend strength is 0 [2][11] - **Aluminum**: Continuing to oscillate. Alumina is in short - term sideways movement, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength for all is 0 [2][13][14] - **Nickel**: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and nickel prices are oscillating in a narrow range. Stainless steel has limited downward potential and lacks upward drivers. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][15][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot tender price is at a high level, showing a strong - side operation. The trend strength is 1 [2][18][21] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are being cleared, and there is obvious bottom support. The trend strength is 1 [2][22][25] - **Polysilicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and there is a risk of a decline. The trend strength is -1 [2][23][25] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][26][27] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro sentiment, steel prices are oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][28][31] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Oscillating in a wide range. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][33][35] - **Coke**: Oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength is 0 [2][36][38] - **Coking Coal**: Supported by fundamentals, oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength is 0 [2][37][38] Others - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][39][42] - **Para - Xylene**: In a high - level oscillatory market. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **PTA**: Oil prices have corrected, and valuations have declined. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **MEG**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Butadiene is weak, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber is under pressure. The trend strength is -1 [2][50][52] - **LLDPE**: Mainly oscillating. No trend strength provided [2] - **PP**: Stopping falling in the short term and oscillating in the medium term. No trend strength provided [2] - **Caustic Soda**: The far - month valuation is suppressed. No trend strength provided [2] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. No trend strength provided [2] - **Methanol**: Oscillating under pressure. No trend strength provided [2] - **Urea**: Spot trading has weakened, and pressure is gradually increasing. No trend strength provided [2] - **Styrene**: Mainly oscillating in the short term. No trend strength provided [2] - **Soda Ash**: There is little change in the spot market. No trend strength provided [2] - **LPG**: The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to cost changes. No trend strength provided [2] - **Propylene**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is oscillating weakly in the short term. No trend strength provided [2] - **PVC**: Oscillating at a low level. No trend strength provided [2] - **Fuel Oil**: Retreating in the short term, with continued increased volatility. No trend strength provided [2] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Temporarily stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. No trend strength provided [2] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Oscillating and consolidating. No trend strength provided [2] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Rebounding in the short term due to positive demand feedback. No trend strength provided [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level. No trend strength provided [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Mainly oscillating in the short term. No trend strength provided [4] - **Palm Oil**: The de - stocking in the producing areas is slow, and attention should be paid to the lower support. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean Oil**: US soybeans have rebounded, and the oil - meal ratio has declined. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are strong, and Dalian soybean meal is rebounding and oscillating. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean No.1**: Oscillating on the strong side. No trend strength provided [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating weakly. No trend strength provided [4] - **Sugar**: Weak overseas and strong domestic. No trend strength provided [4] - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton has increased, supporting the futures price of cotton. No trend strength provided [4] - **Egg**: Maintaining adjustment. No trend strength provided [4] - **Live Pig**: The sentiment in the spot market has declined, awaiting confirmation. No trend strength provided [4] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. No trend strength provided [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price is fluctuating as the market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision this week [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main - contract yesterday was 86,980, with a daily decline of 1.57%, and the night - session closing price was 87,910, with a night - session increase of 1.07%. The LME copper 3M electronic - disk closing price was 11,030, with an increase of 0.26% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index yesterday was 396,365, a decrease of 808 from the previous day, and the open interest was 595,121, a decrease of 18,012. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic - disk was 21,767, a decrease of 2,744, and the open interest was 323,000, an increase of 2,194 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper futures inventory was 35,846, an increase of 454. The LME copper inventory was 134,575, a decrease of 1,400, and the注销仓单比 was 8.30%, an increase of 0.97% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME copper spread increased by 2.13 to - 23.84 compared with the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price decreased by 100 to 78,900. The spot - to - near - month futures spread decreased by 10 to - 55 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision this week. The U.S. Treasury yield remained almost unchanged, and the U.S. dollar index fluctuated lower. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to take extraordinary measures to promote key core technology breakthroughs in key areas [1] - **Industry**: Antofagasta's copper production in Q3 2025 was 161,800 tons, a 1% quarter - on - quarter increase, and the annual production is expected to be at the lower end of the 660,000 - 700,000 - ton guidance range. Indonesia may allow Amman Mineral international to export copper concentrates. Trump overturned a pollution - prevention regulation on copper smelters. Anglo American's Q3 copper production was 184,000 tons, higher than the same period last year, but the production in the first three quarters decreased by 9% year - on - year to 526,000 tons [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a neutral trend [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggestions offer important policy signals, including promoting high - quality economic development, improving the investment and financing functions of the capital market, accelerating the construction of a financial power, consolidating the foundation of the real economy, promoting high - level scientific and technological self - reliance, building a strong domestic market, and enhancing fiscal sustainability [8]. - The copper market is expected to remain firm. Macro factors and production disruptions may change the supply - demand pattern, and new industries are expected to drive long - term demand. The trading strategy is to buy on dips or take long positions [10]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to have a wide - range shock pattern in the short - term and a downward - trending price center in the medium - term due to the weak performance of butadiene [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "15th Five - Year Plan" Suggestions - The "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions aim to promote high - quality economic development, enhance scientific and technological self - reliance, develop direct financing, build a financial power, and strengthen the real economy. They also focus on technological breakthroughs, consumption promotion, and government debt management [8]. 3.2 Copper - **Macro and Industry News**: Market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision. The "15th Five - Year Plan" will introduce economic stimulus measures. Antofagasta's Q3 copper production increased by 1% quarter - on - quarter. Indonesia may allow a copper exporter to resume exports, and Trump reversed a pollution control regulation. Anglo American's Q3 copper production rose year - on - year, but the first three quarters' output decreased [10][18][20]. - **Trend**: The copper price is expected to remain firm. The market risk appetite is boosted, and the supply - demand pattern may change. The demand from new industries is expected to drive long - term growth [10]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Situation**: Butadiene is weak, driving down the valuation of cis - butadiene rubber. The short - term fundamental drive of butadiene is downward, and the price center of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to decline in the medium - term [12]. 3.4 Other Commodities - **Zinc**: Continues to oscillate. The trend strength is neutral [21][23]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventory reduction supports the price. The trend strength is neutral [24]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum continues to oscillate, alumina has a short - term sideways movement, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength is neutral [26][27]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: Nickel price has a narrow - range oscillation due to the game between smelting inventory and nickel ore concerns. Stainless steel has limited downward space and lacks upward drive. The trend strength is neutral [28][30]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Runs strongly with high - level spot bidding. The trend strength is slightly positive [31][34]. - **Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has obvious bottom support with warehouse receipt reduction. Polysilicon market sentiment cools, and there is a risk of decline. The trend strengths are 1 and - 1 respectively [35][36][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is neutral [39][40]. - **Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro sentiment, the steel price has a strong - trending oscillation. The trend strength is neutral [40][41][45]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon, Manganese Silicate**: Have a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is neutral [46][48]. - **Coke, Coking Coal**: Coke has a strong - trending oscillation, and coking coal is supported by fundamentals with a strong - trending oscillation. The trend strength is neutral [49][50][51]. - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is neutral [52][55]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, MEG**: Para - xylene is in a high - level oscillation market, PTA's valuation drops with the oil price decline, and MEG has a short - term oscillation. The trend strength is neutral [56][61]. - **Rubber**: Oscillates. No specific trend strength is mentioned [63].

2025 年 10 月 29 日 生猪：现货情绪回落，等待印证 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | 同 比 | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 12630 | 150 | | 价 格 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 12300 | 400 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 12360 | 300 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | | 12095 | 30 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | | 12160 | -170 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate as the market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision [2][4]. - Zinc prices will continue to oscillate [2][7]. - Overseas inventory reduction supports lead prices [2][10]. - Aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate, alumina will trade sideways in the short - term, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][12]. - Nickel prices will experience narrow - range fluctuations due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and stainless steel has limited downside potential but lacks upward drivers [2][15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 86,980 with a daily decline of 1.57%, and the night - session closing price was 87,910 with a 1.07% increase. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 808 to 396,365, and the open interest decreased by 18,012 to 595,121. The LME copper 3M electronic trading volume decreased by 2,744 to 21,767, and the open interest increased by 2,194 to 323,000. The Shanghai copper inventory increased by 454 to 35,846, and the LME copper inventory decreased by 1,400 to 134,575 [4]. - **News**: The market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. Antofagasta's Q3 2025 copper production was 161,800 tons, a 1% quarter - on - quarter increase, and it expects annual production to be at the lower end of the 660,000 - 700,000 - ton range. Indonesia may allow Amman Mineral international to export copper concentrates. Trump overturned a pollution - prevention regulation on copper smelter emissions. Anglo American's Q3 copper production was 184,000 tons, up from 181,000 tons in the same period last year, but the cumulative production in the first three quarters decreased by 9% year - on - year to 526,000 tons [4][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 1 [6]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,310, a 0.25% decline, and the LME zinc 3M electronic closing price was 3,058.5, a 1.29% increase. The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract increased by 8,676 to 128,753, and the LME zinc trading volume decreased by 721 to 10,796. The Shanghai zinc inventory increased by 2,547 to 68,271 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,800 to 35,250 tons [7]. - **News**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes measures for technological breakthroughs and economic development [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [9]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,355, a 0.94% decline, and the LME lead 3M electronic closing price was 2,023.5, a 0.35% increase. The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 24,547 to 57,175, and the LME lead trading volume increased by 716 to 5,707. The LME lead inventory decreased by 2,700 to 229,675 tons [10]. - **News**: The market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" was proposed [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [10]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,140, a 220 - point decline. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,894, a 16 - point increase. The Shanghai alumina main contract closing price was 2,817, a 12 - point decline. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,575, a 140 - point decline [12]. - **News**: The "ADP National Employment Report" will launch weekly preliminary estimates, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" mentions "finance" 17 times [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [14]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,560, a 1,840 - point decline, and the stainless - steel main contract closing price was 12,750, a 65 - point decline. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract increased by 26,763 to 156,296, and the stainless - steel main contract trading volume decreased by 80,991 to 131,733 [15]. - **News**: Indonesia's forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel - mining area of PT WedaBav Nickel, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended a non - official subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China and export controls on "all key software" [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [17].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View - Zinc is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the zinc trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,310 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous day, while the closing price of the LME 3M electronic zinc contract was 3,058.5 dollars/ton, up 1.29% [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai zinc was 128,753 lots, an increase of 8,676 lots, and the trading volume of LME zinc was 10,796 lots, a decrease of 721 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai zinc was 120,693 lots, a decrease of 491 lots, and the open interest of LME zinc was 222,508 lots, an increase of 264 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -45 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME CASH - 3M premium was 212.89 dollars/ton, up 25.52 dollars [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 68,271 tons, an increase of 2,547 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 35,250 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons [1]. 2. News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to take extraordinary measures to achieve decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies in key areas, implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" action, and boost consumption. It also plans to layout future industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, etc. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon has obvious bottom support with the depletion of warehouse receipts, while the market sentiment of polysilicon has cooled down, and there is a risk of a decline [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For industrial silicon, the Si2601 closing price was 8,965 yuan/ton, with a change of 45 yuan compared to T - 1, 400 yuan compared to T - 5, and 0 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume was 198,198 lots, and the open interest was 201,518 lots [2]. - For polysilicon, the PS2601 closing price was 54,500 yuan/ton, with a change of 2,195 yuan compared to T - 1 and 4,160 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount varied depending on different benchmarks. For example, the spot premium or discount against East China Si5530 was +395 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon's spot premium or discount against N - type re - investment was - 1,855 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.3 Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8,700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 9,950 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock was 52,980 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.4 Profit - The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,314.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 3,253 yuan/ton [2]. - The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.5 yuan/kg [2]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.9 million tons, enterprise inventory was 16.8 million tons, and the industry inventory was 72.7 million tons. The futures warehouse receipt inventory was 24.0 million tons [2]. - Polysilicon's manufacturer inventory was 25.8 million tons [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 23, the National Energy Administration released data on the country's electricity consumption in September. The total electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. From January to September, the cumulative total electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 1, and that of polysilicon was - 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].