商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 纸浆：震荡运行 20260224 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | | 项目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.260 | 5, 238 | +22 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | - | 5, 254 | | | | | 成交量(手) | 164. 325 | 152. 334 | +11.991 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 269.664 | 280.912 | -11.248 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 154. 612 | 151, 415 | +3. 197 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -18.079 | -17.850 | -229 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | -10 | 12 | -22 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -680 | -658 | -22 | | | 月差 | SP03-SP ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, inventory, cost, and profit data, and also mentions a renewable energy cooperation project [2]. - The trend strength of both industrial silicon and polysilicon is rated as neutral, with a value of 0 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2605 closing price is 8,395 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 105 yuan compared to T - 5; the trading volume and open interest show different changes. For polysilicon, the PS2605 closing price is 49,305 yuan/ton, with a small increase compared to T - 1. The trading volume and open interest also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount shows different values when benchmarked against different grades, and polysilicon's spot premium or discount (benchmarked against N - type re - investment) is +3,945 yuan/ton, with a decrease compared to previous periods [2]. - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 is 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 53,250 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 350 yuan compared to T - 5. The prices of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also have different changes [2]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553 are - 2,736.5 yuan/ton and - 5,616 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to previous periods. Polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.9 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1 [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.7 tons, with a decrease of 0.5 tons compared to T - 5. The enterprise inventory and industry inventory also show corresponding changes. The polysilicon factory inventory is 34.9 tons, with an increase of 0.8 tons compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions have different stability or change trends [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On January 28, China Pingmei Shenma Group, LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd., and the Zambian government signed a renewable energy cooperation memorandum of understanding, planning to invest in a 1,000 - megawatt solar power project in the next three years [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2026 年 2 月 24 日 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，盘面具备底部支撑 | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 张 | 航 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 | zhanghang2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 152,640 | 3,220 | 19,720 | 4,440 | -9,300 | 65,700 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 300,191 | -4,607 | -286,515 | -252,477 | -288,828 | 170,287 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 342,226 | -11 ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 生猪：假期现货不及预期 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 12480 | | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11350 | | 500 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11860 | | 200 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 10740 | | -155 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11500 | | -40 | | | 货 | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12220 | | -10 | | | 期 ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 元/吨 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 CY2605 | 元/吨 | 14,740 20,530 | -0.34% -0.61% | - - | - - | | | ICE美棉5 | 美分/磅 | 65.22 | -0.50% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 308,077 | -9,834 | 1,007,658 | -27,068 | | | CY2605 | 手 | 0 | -1,999 | 0 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | 11,001 | 112 | 1,072 | -84 | | | 棉纱 | 张 | 0 | 0 | 38 | ...

【现货消息】 春节期间，烧碱现货无变化，液氯仍维持补贴。 期货研究 烧碱：成本支撑，震荡为主 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 05合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2243 640 2000 -243 2026 年 2 月 24 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【市场状况分析】 期货研究 春节期间，液氯维持弱势，山东液氯价格维持补贴，对烧碱价格产生支撑。春节后，烧碱高库存情况下， 短期大幅上涨空间或有限。考虑到节后仅 4 个交易日就进入 03 合约交割，目前烧碱仓单 895 手，交割压力 仍较大。市场或先交易交割压力，之后再考虑未来减产预期，下游需求环比改善等。 从基本面看，氧化铝随着产能减产，供需结构逐渐逆转，关注后期大规模产能投产带来的增量需求。非 铝下游季节性淡季，3 月份刚需将持续回升，出口保持坚挺，美国价格偏高，欧洲转向亚洲采购烧碱。供应 端看，山东现货价格已贴近现金流成本，3 月份之后减产和降负预期增强。 整体看，液氯持续补贴导 ...

2026 年 02 月 24 日 橡胶：震荡偏强 20260224 高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 gaolinlin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 橡胶趋势强度：1 注 ：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 【行业新闻】 从近 5 年来的数据来看，春节后天然橡胶价格普遍以上涨为主。2026 年来看，节前国内天然橡胶泰混 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 315 | 16. 450 | -135 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | l | 16. 485 | l | | | | 成交量(手) | 165, 470 | 180, 678 | -15, 208 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 140. 235 | 152, 702 | -12, ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 【趋势强度】 动力煤趋势强度（基于北港动力煤现货价格）：1 动力煤：市场预期转好，短期价格或偏强 樊园园 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023682 fanyuanyuan@gtht.com 1. 【基本面跟踪】 动力煤基本面数据 | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 本 期 | 环 比 | 同比去年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产地价格 | 山西大同5500 | 元/吨 | 572.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | | | 内蒙古鄂尔多斯5500 | 元/吨 | 522.0 | 0.0 | 54.0 | | | 陕西榆林5800 | 元/吨 | 598.0 | 0.0 | 79.0 | | 港口价格 | 秦港山西产Q5500 | 元/吨 | 718.0 | 7.0 | -7.0 | | | 秦港山西产Q5000 | 元/吨 | 638.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | | | 秦港山西产Q4500 | 元/吨 | 556.0 | 7.0 | -4.0 | | 海外价格 | 印尼FOB Q3800 | 美元/吨 | 57.0 | 0.0 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 24 日 PP：C3 原料表现偏强，PDH 检修仍高 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 趋势强度：0 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2605 | 6568 | -1.20% | 333362 | -25314 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -118 | | -148 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -25 | | -26 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6470 | | 6500 | | | | 华东 | 6450 | | 6500 | | | | 华南 | 6680 | | 6690 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 盘面节前回调，上游预售压力不 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Core Viewpoint - The report focuses on the current situation of the crude oil market, including price changes, arbitrage opportunities in different regions, and key market news. It indicates that geopolitical factors are heating up, and the short - term crude oil market is expected to be strong [1] Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI 3 - month crude oil futures closed down $0.04 per barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%, at $66.39 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 04 closed up $0.10 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%, at $71.76 per barrel; SC2604 crude oil futures closed down $20.30, a decline of 4.22%, at $460.70 per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - Different types of crude oils have different current states and spread changes. For example, Arab Extra Light's spread closed at -$4.66, with a month - on - month decline due to a significant expansion of the crude oil price disadvantage. Vasconia's spread turned positive, with a significant month - on - month increase driven by a deep discount in crude oil price [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties' spread closed at -$2.51, with a month - on - month decline due to disadvantages in refining value and crude oil price compared to Bonny Light. Saharan Blend's spread widened significantly, with a positive refining value, lower freight, and a significant price advantage [4] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH's spread opened at $1.74, with a month - on - month increase. The high trans - Atlantic freight was offset by a significant crude oil price advantage. Azeri Light's spread increased significantly, driven by a strong refining value and a significant price advantage [5] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend's spread closed at -$20.79, with a month - on - month increase (the negative value decreased) because the relative price advantage of the benchmark oil Urals weakened. Similar reasons led to the increase in the spreads of other crude oils in the region [6] Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri's spread closed at -$2.03, with a month - on - month decline due to a significantly negative refining value. Napo's spread opened at $8.57, narrowing month - on - month but still at a high level, driven by a large discount in crude oil price relative to Dubai [7] Key Market News - The Trump administration is considering new "national security tariffs" on six industries. The National Energy Administration will release and implement a new energy system and a series of sub - field energy plans. Regarding the Iran issue, Trump prefers to reach an agreement with Iran rather than going to war. In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the EU Foreign Affairs Council failed to reach an agreement on a new round of sanctions against Russia [10] Trend Intensity - The crude oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral state. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [10][11]