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农产品日报-20260112
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 12:50
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy Rating**: Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn, and Live Hogs are rated as "★★★" [1] - **Neutral Rating**: Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil are rated as "★☆☆" [1] - **Sell Rating**: Eggs are rated as "★☆☆" [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live hogs, and eggs. It offers insights into their current market conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and price trends, and provides corresponding investment strategies and suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean - The spot price of domestic soybeans showed an upward trend last week. Policy - based auction sales had high premiums and high transaction rates. The futures contract saw profit - taking at high positions. Supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, and the market features high - quality products commanding high prices. However, price increases have dampened demand. Policy is increasing supply. Short - term focus should be on policies and the spot market [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Attention should be paid to the USDA's January supply - demand report. The upside space for US soybeans is limited, and South American weather is favorable, with a 68% probability of ENSO neutrality in Q1. If South American weather remains stable, soybean meal prices will follow US soybeans and fluctuate weakly [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Malaysia's January MPOB report showed a slight decline in production and improved demand, but inventory increased to the second - highest level since 2007. After the report, palm oil prices rose due to the game between Malaysia's weak supply - demand situation and Indonesia's policy of raising export taxes and confiscating illegal plantations [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The focus this week is on the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. The market expects Sino - Canadian relations to ease, which may put pressure on rapeseed products. If relations do not improve, prices may rebound due to low domestic inventories. As of January 9, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory increased to 60,000 tons [6] Corn - Corn futures continued to rise, with the main contract C20603 up 1.19%. Northeast spot prices were stable with an upward bias, and some Shandong deep - processing enterprises raised purchase prices. Overall inventory is low, and the selling progress is fast. The short - term Dalian corn futures will fluctuate widely [7] Live Hogs - The live hog market remained volatile. Prices of live hogs and piglets rebounded, and industry profits approached the break - even point. The reduction of sows slowed down. Second - fattening is still taking place, supporting short - term prices. However, the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is high, and the upside space is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a high probability of a second bottom in H1 next year [8] Eggs - The egg futures market declined slightly on Monday with an increase of 25,000 lots in open interest. Spot prices strengthened after New Year's Day. Low chick replenishment from August to December will lead to a decline in laying hens in H1 2026. With pre - Spring Festival demand, egg prices are expected to rise [9]
软商品日报-20260112
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 11:18
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various soft commodities are different, with some facing supply - demand imbalances and others affected by seasonal factors. Overall, most commodities are currently recommended for a wait - and - see approach, with only 20 - rubber and natural rubber having a bullish strategy [2][3][6] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline with reduced positions in the main contract. Spot sales were average, and the mainstream basis range of cotton spot remained stable. As of December, the national commercial cotton inventory increased. It's in the off - season, but demand is stable. The processing volume of lint cotton increased. The reduction in Xinjiang's planting area was less than expected. Spinning enterprises' raw material demand is resilient, but downstream orders are average. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to adjust, and it's recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Internationally, the focus is on the production expectation gap in the Northern Hemisphere. India's production in the 25/26 season is progressing fast with a significant increase, while Thailand's is slow and below expectations. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In December, Guangxi's production and sales both decreased. The production data is relatively bullish. The slow production in Guangxi may lead to a upward repair of futures prices if production doesn't increase later. It's recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated at a high level. In Gansu, procurement was active, and in Shaanxi, the price was stable. During the Spring Festival stocking, merchants mainly packaged their own goods, and the procurement of farmers' goods was less. The market's trading logic shifted to demand. Apple quality is poor this year, but the purchase price is high, and the hoarding sentiment may affect the de - stocking speed. It's recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - Rubber & Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber first declined and then rose. The spot prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber were stable. Global natural rubber supply entered the production - reduction period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased. The domestic tire operating rate declined, and rubber inventories increased. Demand is slowly recovering, and the cost support is strengthening. The strategy for RU&NR is bullish, and for BR, it's to wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp slightly declined today. Limited by weak downstream demand, its short - term upward space may be restricted. The inventory at major Chinese pulp ports increased. The price difference between coniferous and broad - leaved pulp is narrowing. Paper mills mainly purchase pulp for rigid demand, and the increase in base paper prices is weak. It's recommended to wait for a significant correction [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price in Taicang increased. The external price decreased, and the domestic spot price was weak, with a short - term decrease in arrivals. The daily average outbound volume at 13 national ports increased, and the total inventory at national ports increased slightly but remained low with relatively small pressure. Low inventory supports the price. It's recommended to wait and see [8]
能源日报-20260112
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 11:12
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks in the short - term drive up oil prices, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited due to significant inventory pressure and supply surplus in the global crude oil market in Q1 2026 [3] - The unilateral trend of fuel oil mainly follows the cost side of crude oil, and geopolitical situations affect both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil markets [4] - The recent rebound in crude oil has little impact on asphalt futures prices, and the reduction of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China may impact domestic asphalt raw material supply [5] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - The geopolitical situation in Iran is tense but controllable, and the US continues to seize Venezuelan oil tankers, which drives up oil prices in the short - term [3] - In Q1 2026, the global crude oil supply - demand structure shows significant inventory pressure, and supply surplus restricts the upward space of oil prices [3] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The unilateral trend of fuel oil follows the cost side of crude oil, and geopolitical tensions are the key driving factors [4] - For high - sulfur fuel oil, US military actions against Venezuela may affect heavy - crude oil supply, and domestic refineries may increase fuel oil use as an alternative raw material for asphalt production. Inventory consumption may appear in late March, and raw material procurement demand may support the high - sulfur market after the Spring Festival in mid - February [4] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the Azur refinery's CDU device has fully resumed operation, and the supply scale is expected to gradually increase. The overseas supply rebound brings loose pressure, keeping the fundamentals weak [4] Asphalt - The recent crude oil rebound has not affected asphalt futures prices significantly [5] - Since December 2025, the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers may impact domestic asphalt raw material supply in February and later, and the current market has priced in the expected tightening of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China [5] - Attention should be paid to the arrival situation of Venezuelan crude oil [5]
化工日报-20260112
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 11:09
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, polypropylene, plastic, short - fiber: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pure benzene, styrene, PX, PTA, glass: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, PVC: ★☆☆, showing a bullish trend but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Caustic soda: ★☆★, with unclear short - term trend and limited operability [1] - Soda ash: ★☆☆, with a bullish trend but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various chemical futures are affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, cost, and geopolitical risks. Different products have different trends and investment opportunities in the short, medium, and long - term [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with supply support due to planned maintenance of local PDH plants and reduced inventory [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures rose. Polyethylene had cost support and tight spot supply, while polypropylene had reduced supply due to more maintenance and stable demand from downstream [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rose due to cost and downstream factors, but faced difficulties in de - stocking in the long - term [3] - Styrene futures rose, with a tight supply - demand balance, falling port inventory, and a good export market [3] Polyester - PX and PTA demand will decline due to pre - and post - Spring Festival maintenance, but oil price recovery provides a rebound drive [4] - Ethylene glycol has an expected increase in domestic supply and a decrease in overseas supply, with short - term pressure and potential improvement in the second quarter [4] - Short - fiber demand is weak, and its price fluctuates with raw materials [4] - Bottle - grade polyester demand is weakening, with a supply - demand double - decline before the Spring Festival and long - term over - capacity pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol faced adjustment after a rise, with expected port de - stocking but weakening demand [5] - Urea prices were stable with a slight decline, with increased production and demand, and limited downward space [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices fluctuated due to export tax - rebate news, with a possible long - term increase in price center [6] - Caustic soda prices were weak, with limited upward space [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash faced supply pressure and limited demand, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds [7] - Glass had reduced supply and demand pressure, with opportunities for long - position entry after a long - term decline [7]
黑色金属日报-20260112
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 11:08
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron Ore: ★★☆, representing a clear long trend and the行情 is fermenting on the market [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, meaning a long bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a long bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: ★★☆, representing a clear long trend and the行情 is fermenting on the market [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, indicating a clear long trend and the行情 is fermenting on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is still optimistic, but the weak demand restricts the upside space. The steel market is likely to continue the range - bound pattern, and the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Coke and coking coal prices are likely to be strongly volatile, while silicon manganese and silicon iron are recommended to buy on dips [1][2][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market rebounded today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread continued to decline, production slightly increased, and inventory began to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils declined, production continued to increase slightly, and inventory was slowly depleted. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, blast furnaces were gradually restarted, and hot metal production increased in the short term, but its sustainability remains to be seen. Domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports remain high. The overall market sentiment is optimistic, and the market is likely to continue the range - bound pattern [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market rose slightly today. On the supply side, global shipments decreased seasonally and were still strong year - on - year. Brazilian shipments decreased significantly, Australian shipments were basically flat, and the volume sent to China increased. The supply from non - mainstream regions improved. Domestic port inventory increased significantly last week and is expected to continue to accumulate. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season, blast furnaces that had regular maintenance have restarted, and hot metal production increased last week. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has been increasing continuously, and there is still an expectation of winter storage replenishment. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] Coke - Coke prices fluctuated upward during the day. Coke transaction prices rose sporadically, coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory hardly changed. The carbon element supply is abundant, downstream hot metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and currently, the demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level. The steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong. Coke prices on the market are at a premium, and prices are likely to be strongly volatile [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fluctuated upward during the day. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,252 vehicles yesterday. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the resumption of production after the New Year's Day was good. Spot auction transactions continued to improve, and transaction prices increased slightly. Terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased significantly. The carbon element supply is abundant, downstream hot metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and currently, the demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level. The steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong. Coking coal prices on the market are at a premium to Mongolian coal, and prices are likely to be strongly volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices dropped significantly during the day. Driven by the market rebound, manganese ore spot prices increased. There is a structural problem with manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon - manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The manganese ore spot transaction prices increased last week. On the demand side, hot metal production decreased seasonally. Silicon - manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips [6] Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices dropped significantly during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, prices are relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expectation of a certain decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. On the demand side, hot metal production rebounded to a high level. Export demand decreased to above 20,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand is still resilient. Silicon - iron supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips [7]
PVC出口退税取消的点评:【国投期货|化工速评】
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 11:04
研究院 周小燕 Z0016691 2026.01.12 【国投期货|化工速评】 PVC 出口退税取消的点评 本报告是基于本公司认为可靠的已公开信息,但本公司不保证该等信息的准确性或完整性。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测只提 供给客户作参考之用。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测仅反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断,本报告所指的期货或期权的价格、 价值可能会波动。在不同时期,本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告。客户不应视本报告为其做出投资决策 的唯一因素。在任何情况下,本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。在任何情况下,本公司不对任何人因 使用本报告中的任何内容所导致的任何损失负任何责任。 本报告可能附带其它网站的地址或超级链接,本公司不对其内容的真实性、合法性、完整性和准确性负责。本报告提供这些地址或 超级链接的目的纯粹是为了客户使用方便,链接网站的内容不构成本报告的任何部分,客户需自行承担浏览这些网站的费用或风 险。 经本公司事先书面授权,本报告的任何部分均不得以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品,或再次分发给任何其他人, 或以任何侵犯本公司版权的其他方式使用。 | 序号 ...
俯则未察,仰以殊观:2026年大宗商品年度展望
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 11:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global liquidity environment will maintain a loose tone, with marginal adjustments in the pace and amplitude. China's macro - policies will remain positive, with fiscal support for "two major" construction and "new - quality productivity" and moderately loose monetary policies [17]. - The industrial capacity cycle has bottomed out, and there are signs of a turning point. In 2026, the capacity utilization rate is expected to stabilize in the first half and rise marginally in the second half [23]. - The inventory cycle is approaching its end, with domestic and overseas "de - stocking" showing signs of bottoming out [29]. - In 2026, the commodity market is expected to stabilize at the bottom and gradually shift to a "slow - bull" market. The Minsky Clock is likely to transition from "weak recovery" to "early re - inflation," benefiting stocks and commodities [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Outlook - The global liquidity environment in 2026 will maintain a loose tone, and China's macro - policies will continue to be positive, with fiscal support for key areas and moderately loose monetary policies [17]. 3.2 Capacity Cycle - The industrial capacity utilization rate bottomed out in Q2 2025, and the PPI has been narrowing its year - on - year decline since June 2025. In 2026, it may form the initial stage of a positive cycle [23]. 3.3 Inventory Cycle - The year - on - year growth rate of finished - product inventory has shown signs of bottoming out, indicating the end of the current inventory cycle. The US wholesalers' inventory has been decreasing since Q2, and the inventory - to - sales ratio has become less sensitive [29]. 3.4 Commodity Market Outlook - In 2026, the commodity market will operate in a pattern of "liquidity support, cycle resonance and stabilization, and structural differentiation." It may show wide - range fluctuations in the first half and a mild recovery in the second half if policies are effective [30]. 3.5 Sector and Variety Allocation Outlook 3.5.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals are expected to continue their bull market but with increased volatility. The gold - silver ratio may decline periodically [35]. 3.5.2 From AI to New and Old Energy Transition - AI's computing power demand drives the entire new - energy industry chain, causing high resonance between the stock market and commodities. New - energy materials such as lithium carbonate and polysilicon may enter a new demand cycle, and there are investment opportunities in going long on copper and short on oil [42][57]. 3.5.3 Real Estate and Related Sectors - The real - estate industry is still in a downward cycle, putting pressure on the prices of black and building - material sectors. The divergence between copper and rebar reflects the economic transformation [62]. 3.5.4 Black and Energy - Chemical Sectors - In the black sector, shorting iron ore may be cost - effective. In the energy - chemical sector, most chemicals except crude oil face supply pressure and are suitable for short - allocation [68]. 3.5.5 Agricultural Products - Livestock Sector - If the "anti - involution" policy promotes the reduction of livestock production capacity in the first half, pork and eggs may be worth long - allocation in the second half, while the fundamentals of beans may weaken [74]. 3.6 Allocation Strategy - Industrial product hedging can focus on the theme of "AI and computing power driving the acceleration of new - and old - energy transformation." Agricultural products will continue to show differentiation, with grains and oils relatively resistant to decline and livestock products potentially having a low - then - high trend [80][81]. - New - energy varieties (e.g., lithium carbonate) have demand support and profit - repair potential. Non - ferrous metals (e.g., copper) have valuation - increasing potential. Energy - chemical products are under pressure, and black products are affected by real - estate demand [82].
光伏等产品出口退税取消,有望提振一季度欧线货量:【国投期货|航运论事】
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 10:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic and other products is expected to boost the cargo volume on European routes in the first quarter of 2026. The policy adjustment is likely to have a significant impact on near - month contracts, being beneficial to the 02 contract, while the impact on the 04 contract remains to be observed [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Background - On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued an announcement to cancel the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products starting from April 1, 2026. For battery products, the policy will be adjusted step - by - step and fully cancelled by 2027 [3] Market Reaction and Short - term Cargo Volume Impact - Europe and the Asia - Pacific are the top two export markets for Chinese photovoltaic modules. From 2024 to the present, exports to Europe account for 35% - 45% of the total photovoltaic exports. From January to October this year, the export volume of photovoltaic modules to five northwest European countries was about 96 million pieces, equivalent to about 385,000 TEU, accounting for 4% - 5% of the total cargo volume on European routes [4] - The policy implementation is expected to trigger a concentrated rush to export among photovoltaic enterprises. Some enterprises plan to maintain production during the Spring Festival and speed up overseas shipments. It is expected that in the first quarter of 2026, this will boost the cargo volume on European routes [4] - When there were rumors of tax rebate adjustments in August 2025, there was a rush to transport in August - September. With the formal implementation of the policy and the one - step cancellation of the tax rebate rate, the scale of the rush to transport is expected to exceed the previous round. Before the policy execution, the monthly export scale may reach 65,000 - 70,000 TEU, with a monthly increase of about 35,000 TEU and a 5% boost in cargo volume, especially supporting the cargo volume during the Spring Festival off - season [5] - The impact of the rush to transport on actual freight rates needs further observation. Before the Spring Festival, if the rush to export photovoltaic products coincides with the peak shipping season, it may push up freight rates in the short term. However, after the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season in the shipping market, and shipping companies can adjust the supply of shipping capacity. The monthly increase of about 35,000 TEU can be absorbed by about two 17,000 - TEU ships, so the upward push on freight rates may be limited. From the second quarter of 2026, the overdraft effect on demand may suppress subsequent cargo volume [5] - Overall, the policy adjustment is expected to have a significant impact on near - month contracts, being beneficial to the 02 contract. The impact on the 04 contract remains to be observed: the traditional post - Spring Festival freight rate decline trend may slow down due to cargo volume support, but the front - loading of demand is actually negative for the cargo volume in the second quarter of 2026 and later [6]
非农新增就业不及预期风险资产价格上涨:大类资产运行周报(20260105-20260109)-20260112
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 10:48
Tabl e_Title 2026 年 1 月 12 日 大类资产运行周报(20260105-20260109) 风险提示:美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 1.60% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | 1.48% | | 全球债券指数 | -0.03% | | 全球国债指数 | -0.16% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.01% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | 0.69% SAC 执业证书编号:S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 1.23% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 2.41% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号:F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报(20251013 -20251017)-多重风险事 ...
有色评论:光伏出口取消退税的政策点评
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 09:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products will stimulate the demand for polysilicon in the short term and promote the industry to eliminate backward production capacity and achieve supply - demand re - balance in the medium and long term, which is in line with the current policy orientation of "anti - involution" [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Content Policy Background - On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly announced that the VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic and other products would be fully cancelled from April 1, 2026. In November 2024, the export tax rebate rate for photovoltaic products was lowered from 13% to 9% [1] - The reason for the policy is the "volume increase and price decrease" situation in the export market caused by vicious price competition. In 2024, the export volume of photovoltaic cells increased by 41.5% year - on - year, but the export value decreased by 33.76%; the export volume of components increased by 9.9%, and the export value decreased by 27.89%. Some enterprises converted the tax rebate into a price reduction for overseas customers, leading to profit losses and increasing the risk of international trade frictions [1] Short - term Impact - There will be a "rush to export" market in the about 3 - month window period before the policy is officially implemented on April 1. Enterprises will increase production and shipments to avoid future cost increases, which will boost the demand for upstream polysilicon in the short term. Some photovoltaic enterprises have stated that they will maintain continuous production during the Spring Festival [1] Medium - and Long - term Impact - The full cancellation of export tax rebates will increase the export threshold of photovoltaic products from the cost side, help curb vicious competition relying on price subsidies, accelerate the clearance of excess production capacity in the industry's supply side, and promote the industry to shift from price - based competition to high - quality development based on technology and quality [2] - In January 2026, the regulatory level signaled that the industry's "anti - involution" would focus on market - based and legalized paths, and the market expected a change in the previous approach of industry self - regulation and negotiation [2] Photovoltaic Product List - The list includes "Photovoltaic cells not installed in components or assembled into blocks" with the commodity code 85414200 and "Photovoltaic cells installed in components or assembled into blocks" with the commodity code 85414300 [3]