Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different commodities and financial products affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][3] Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia tightens price limits, but impact on supply is uncertain. In July, trade - war risks are greater than geopolitical benefits, and oil prices may turn to a volatile and pressured trend [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - low sulfur spread continues to decline. The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia boosts FU, while LU follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than SC since mid - July [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas markets are weak, but domestic PDH demand is strong. With weak supply and demand, domestic gas may stabilize, and the market is expected to be in low - level oscillation [23] - **Urea**: Affected by policy news, the market is bullish. Production enterprises are de - stocking, and supply is sufficient. With expected growth in industrial demand and export progress, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24] - **Methanol**: Boosted by policy, it is bullish at night. Import arrivals increase, and ports are rapidly stocking. Some enterprises may postpone maintenance, and attention should be paid to macro - level impacts [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the upward drive for gold is limited. With high uncertainty before the US tariff policy deadline and a weakening dollar outlook, precious metals are in wide - range oscillation, and the gold - silver ratio has room to decline [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices continued to rise. Social inventories decreased rapidly over the weekend. Resistance at the upper integer level is strong, and the 2508 option portfolio should be held until expiration this week [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed non - ferrous metals in a strong and oscillating trend. Aluminum ingot inventories increased, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with resistance around 21,000 yuan [4] - **Alumina**: Overnight, it remained strong. With low warehouse receipts and high industry operating rates, after a sharp increase driven by policy expectations, there is a risk of correction [5] - **Zinc**: Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, zinc prices broke through the bottom consolidation. However, with increasing supply pressure, attention should be paid to downstream acceptance and the entry of hedging positions [7] - **Lead**: Primary lead smelters are reducing production, and the cost support is strong. In the context of weak supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded significantly. With weakening upstream price support and high overall inventory, it is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices oscillated at a high level. With a decrease in imports from Congo and an increase from Myanmar, it is recommended to hold or increase short positions in far - month contracts [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillated and rose. With increasing total inventory and a rebound in Australian ore prices, the upward space is limited, and short - sellers should manage their positions [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by an accident in the organic silicon supply, prices rose significantly. With increasing demand and limited supply, it is expected to oscillate and strengthen [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price strengthened. With cost transfer and limited terminal demand acceptance, short - term observation is recommended [13] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - trading steel prices oscillated narrowly. Rebar demand declined, and hot - rolled coil demand was resilient. With low inventory and positive market sentiment, the market is expected to remain strong [14] - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures price oscillated. With increasing global shipments and high iron - making production, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices continued to rise. With sufficient carbon supply and high iron - making production, they are expected to follow steel prices and remain strong in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon prices adjusted slightly after a high opening. With decreasing inventory and increasing demand expectations, it follows rebar prices. Ferrosilicon prices opened high, with overall good demand and a slight increase in supply, also following rebar prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Pure Benzene**: Night - trading prices oscillated. With a slight increase in domestic production and a decrease in port inventory, it is recommended to operate in monthly spreads, with a positive spread strategy in the short - to - medium term and a negative spread in the fourth quarter [26] - **Styrene**: Driven by macro - news, the trading sentiment improved. With expected increases in both supply and demand and continued inventory accumulation, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Driven by the macro - environment, the market sentiment improved slightly, but the fundamentals are weak. In the consumption off - season, downstream procurement is cautious, and there is pressure to destock [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by the policy of eliminating backward production capacity, PVC showed a strong trend. Caustic soda was also strong under macro - influence. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity - elimination policies [28] - **PX & PTA**: Night - trading prices oscillated. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and demand dragged down PX. The processing margin of PTA has room for repair [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: With limited policy impact and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the short term, paying attention to the previous high - point pressure [30] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: They followed PTA and closed with a doji. Short - fiber is expected to be long - positioned in the medium term, while bottle - grade chip has limited profit - repair drivers due to over - capacity [31] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybean优良率decreased slightly, and with uncertainties in trade and weather, soybean meal is expected to oscillate before the situation becomes clear [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Affected by weather, policy, and supply - demand factors, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended, with short - term attention to weather and policy guidance [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: With potential changes in import trade and seasonal demand, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - **Corn**: US corn auction results were poor, and Dalian corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom [39] - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Hogs**: Affected by policies, the futures price rose significantly. However, with sufficient future supply, industrial players can participate in short - hedging at high prices [40] - **Eggs**: Small - egg prices decreased, while large - egg prices increased. The spot price is in a seasonal rebound, and the futures market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [41] - **Others** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Chinese cotton prices corrected. With tight supply and potential short - squeeze, it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices oscillated, and domestic sugar sales are fast with low inventory. Considering weather and production uncertainties, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [43] - **Apples**: Futures prices oscillated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and attention should be paid to price changes and new - season yield estimates [44] - **Wood**: Futures prices rebounded. With low - level spot prices, low port arrivals, and inventory, but weak domestic demand, it is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Pulp**: Prices continued to rise. With high port inventory and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [46] Financial Products Summaries Stock Index - The stock market opened higher and continued to rise. The futures index contracts all closed up, with IC leading the gain. The market risk preference is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term, and technology - growth stocks are recommended for additional allocation [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed with oscillation. The central bank's policy may inject implicit liquidity, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

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Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Paper Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Apple: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market operability is poor, with a focus on waiting and seeing [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various soft commodities show different trends, and the influencing factors include supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and macro - economic factors. The investment strategies for different commodities mainly include waiting and seeing, intraday trading, or taking appropriate positions at low prices [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices pulled back today. The basis of domestic cotton spot sales was firm, and spot trading was average. The rise in Zhengzhou cotton was due to tight commercial cotton inventories and the possibility of a soft squeeze. Cotton yarn prices rose, but market trading did not improve significantly. As of the end of June, cotton commercial inventory was 2829800 tons, a decrease of 628900 tons from the end of May. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday trading [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, rainfall in the main producing areas in the second half of June affected the sugarcane harvest, and the sugarcane crushing volume decreased year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392300 tons; imported syrup and premixed powder was 115500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103500 tons. Although Guangxi had an increase in production this year, due to the fast sales pace, inventory decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure was relatively light. It is expected that sugar prices will remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. Early - maturing apples were on the market, and cold - storage apple prices weakened. The demand for apples was low due to the large supply of seasonal fruits and hot weather. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&MR rose slightly, and BR rose significantly. The domestic prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber continued to rise. The global natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded last week. The downstream demand improved, the rubber supply increased, the natural rubber inventory increased, and the synthetic rubber inventory decreased. The market sentiment improved, and there were potential policy benefits. The strategy is to go long on rebounds [5] Paper Pulp - Today, pulp prices continued to rise. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2181000 tons, a 0.2 - million - ton increase from the previous period. China's pulp imports in June were still relatively high. Currently, the import inventory is high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [6] Timber - The futures price continued to rebound, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of 13 ports in China was 62400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 6.12%. The total port inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 70000 cubic meters. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand timber will remain low, but domestic demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月21日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | 女女女 | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 綜欄油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | なな女 | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 莱油 | な☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆表现震荡偏强。预计未来10天，东北地区、华北北部等地多阵性降雨，累计降水量较常年同期偏多4～8 成，利于土壤水分增加,但部分地区伴有短时强降水,要防范短时清涝风险。政策方面本周国产大豆仍然举行竞价 采购交易,关注实际的成交表现。进口大豆方面天气方面美国大豆产区未来6-10天面临高温风险,不过 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain strong, with the iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon markets likely to follow the trend of steel in the short term, and all are affected by the "anti - involution" policy and market sentiment [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures continued to strengthen. Thread apparent demand decreased month - on - month, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly accumulated. Hot - rolled coil demand remained resilient, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly decreased [2] - Pig iron production increased and remained at a high level. Under the low - inventory pattern, the negative feedback pressure in the off - season was not significant. In June, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down. Domestic demand remained weak overall, while exports remained relatively high [2] - Multiple departments called for "anti - involution", and the Yajiang project improved demand expectations. Market sentiment was optimistic, and industrial products at low levels all rose. The futures market is expected to remain strong [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures continued to rebound, and the basis narrowed at a low level recently. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments increased month - on - month this period, stronger than the same period last year. Shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions increased significantly, while shipments from Australia decreased [3] - China's port arrivals declined from a high level this period, and there was no obvious pressure on port inventory accumulation in the short term. On the demand side, steel mills had no motivation to cut production in the short term, and pig iron production rebounded more than expected last week [3] - At the macro level, the "anti - involution" and the upcoming important meeting boosted market sentiment, and the Yajiang project strengthened market expectations for future major projects. It is expected that iron ore will be strong in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices rose significantly during the day. The second round of price increases for coking has been proposed, and coking profits are meager. Coking daily production slightly increased after continuous decline. Coke inventory decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness increased [4] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and downstream pig iron production remains at a high level in the off - season. The "anti - involution" currently has limited impact on the coke industry. The coke futures price is at a premium and is expected to continue to rise in the short term [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The output of coking coal mines slightly decreased, the spot auction market improved, transaction prices continued to rise, and terminal inventory increased [6] - Total coking coal inventory decreased month - on - month, and production - end inventory continued to decline significantly. It is likely to continue to destock in the short term. The "anti - involution" currently has limited impact on the coking coal industry. The coking coal futures price is at a premium and is expected to continue to rise in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices opened higher and then slightly adjusted. Due to continuous production cuts in the early stage, the inventory level decreased, the weekly production recovery rate was slow, and both futures and spot demand improved. It is judged that inventory will mainly continue to decline [7] - In the long - term, manganese ore inventory is gradually increasing, which exerts great pressure on prices. In the short - term, the current inventory level is low, and manganese mines' willingness to support prices has increased. Spot manganese ore prices have risen following the futures market. Affected by the "anti - involution", market expectations for demand - side policies have increased. Silicon manganese mainly follows the trend of thread, with a relatively small increase [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices opened higher. Pig iron production increased to over 242. Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand declined marginally. Overall demand was acceptable [8] - Ferrosilicon supply increased slightly, market trading volume was average, and on - balance inventory decreased fluctuantly. Affected by the "anti - involution", market expectations for demand - side policies have increased. Ferrosilicon mainly follows the trend of thread, with a relatively weak increase [8]

| | 国投期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月21日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | なな女 | 苯乙烯 | な女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | | | PVC | ☆☆☆ | 烧碱 | な女女 | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | РХ | 女女女 | PTA | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | 短纤 | な女女 | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 文文文 纯碱 | | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | な女女 | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇) 受政策端利好消息提振，日内甲醇盘面偏强运行。进口到港量大幅回升,港口快速累库 ...

| 能源 日报 | /// > 国経期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年07月21日 | 操作评级 | | | | 高明宇 首席分析师 | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | | F0302201 Z0012038 | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | 李祖智 中级分析师 | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | | F3063857 Z0016599 | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价反弹,SC09合约日内涨2.57%。伊拉克能源官员声明称近期无人机袭击已导致库尔德斯坦无油产 量减少14-15万桶/天，欧盟通过第18轮对俄罗斯能源制裁方案,供应担忧有所升温。但考虑到近期原油现货升 贴水及月差均未进一步走强,或显示强现实因素对油价的上行驱动减弱,7月贸易战的利空风险依然存在，油价 短期或难以突破震荡格局。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油 ...

两缔期货和期权将于7月22日在郑州商品交易所上市，我国基础化工品期货再添新成员。 一、丙烯行业背景: 景气下行、结构行过剩 安如泰山 信守承诺 丙烯期货上市策略前瞻 化工新品种 过去五年我国丙烯产能快速扩张，2020年到2024年，五年间我国丙烯产能增加2912万吨，年复合增速 14.3%。2020-2024年中国丙烯消费年均复合增长率为8.5%，远低于丙烯产能年均增达，供需增速差的存在，导致 两烯市场供需矛盾呈现明显的加剧之势，丙烯行业景气下行，行业呈结构性过剩的格局。 二、上半年运行情况:供需失衡、价格下跌 图 1: 中国丙烷、混烷脱氢装置开工率及毛利对比 资料来源：卓创资讯，国投期货 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 上半年丙烯面临供应、需求、成本三方面压力,导致价格持续下行。原料端原油和丙烷价格下跌,成本支 撑下滑。供应端，多套新装置投产，带动产量快速增长。据统计，上半年国内丙烯新增产能548.5万吨，国内丙 烯行业总产能达到7574.8万吨。1-6月份国内丙烯总产量3057.9万吨，同比增长13.16%。PDH装置上半年阶段性的 开工率持续下滑，5月中旬以后开工有所提升，但同比仍然明显较低,尽管如此， ...

| | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 1.65% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | 0.47% | | 全球债券指数 | -0.20% | | 全球国债指数 | -0.31% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | -0.02% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | 0.60% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 0.86% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 0.35% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 Tabl e_Title 2025 年 7 月 21 日 大类资产运行周报（20250714-20250718） 美联储独立性受关注 风险资产周度收 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（202504 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月21日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | ななな | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 能 | な☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 文☆☆ | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ★☆☆ | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周一沪铜增仓拉涨至7.97万,国内工业品交投气氛感染沪铜,同时周末国内社库去库快,SMM社库周一大减2.47 万吨至11.86万吨；钢联社库口径则减少1.89万吨在12.55 ...