Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the given text about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The zinc market's surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the continuous recovery of TC and good returns from by - products such as sulfuric acid, smelters' production enthusiasm is high. However, high zinc prices and the consumption off - season suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and inventory continues to accumulate, with strong upward pressure. It is expected that zinc prices may weaken and consolidate in the short term, operating in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to macro - economic conditions and downstream consumption [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots rose 2.02% to 22,700 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract rose 2.65% to 22,885 yuan/ton; the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 0.18% to 2,829 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Industry Conditions**: Refining zinc enterprises' production profits continued to improve; galvanizing start - up increased slightly but the terminal remained weak; die - casting zinc alloy start - up was cautious due to the off - season; zinc oxide start - up declined due to weak demand; zinc ingot social inventory continued to accumulate [4][15][45]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Raw Material End - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: As of July 25, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 80,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the total inventory of 7 ports was 354,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons from the previous week [19]. - **Zinc Concentrate Profit**: As of July 24, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,448 yuan/metal ton. In June, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.42%; from January to June, the cumulative import volume was 2.5339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.74% [25]. - **TC Changes**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained at 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import index rose to 76.25 US dollars/dry ton [28]. 2.2 Smelting End - **Smelter Production**: Refining zinc enterprises' production profits continued to improve. As of July 24, the production profit of refining zinc enterprises was - 138 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc output was 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and the output in July is expected to remain high [37]. - **Import Situation**: The import profit window was closed. As of July 25, the import profit of refined zinc was - 1,586.89 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 192,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,000 tons [42]. 3. Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 Galvanizing - **Start - up Rate**: The galvanizing enterprise start - up rate increased by 0.30 percentage points to 59.42%. The good trend of black metal prices and traders' continuous replenishment drove the recovery of galvanizing start - up. However, orders for guardrails, lamp posts, and photovoltaic brackets remained weak [49]. - **Inventory Changes**: Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory decreased as high zinc prices suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Finished product inventory decreased as enterprises were pessimistic about the future and consumed inventory for profit realization [52]. 3.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - **Price Changes**: The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy rose 1.96% to 23,395 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy rose 1.92% to 23,945 yuan/ton [58]. - **Start - up Rate**: The die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased by 0.92 percentage points to 51.03%. Due to the consumption off - season, enterprise production declined, and the start - up rate was expected to continue to decline [61]. - **Inventory Changes**: Die - casting zinc alloy enterprises' raw material inventory decreased due to weak purchasing enthusiasm at high zinc prices, and finished product inventory increased as the shipment rhythm slowed down [64]. 3.3 Zinc Oxide - **Price Changes**: The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% rose 1.40% to 21,700 yuan/ton [68]. - **Start - up Rate**: The zinc oxide enterprise start - up rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 55.99%. Weak terminal demand and the off - season led to a general performance of orders [71]. - **Inventory Changes**: Zinc oxide enterprises' raw material inventory decreased as they mainly made rigid purchases at high zinc prices, and finished product inventory increased due to weak terminal demand [74]. 4. Inventory Analysis - **Social Inventory**: As of July 24, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 90,200 tons, showing an increase. The high zinc price at the beginning of the week suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 6,000 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week [79]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of July 25, the SHFE inventory was 59,400 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 115,800 tons, showing a decrease [82]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: In June 2025, the production was 585,000 tons, the import volume was 25,000 tons, the export volume was 200 tons, the apparent consumption was 610,000 tons, the actual consumption was 586,000 tons, and the monthly supply - demand balance was 24,000 tons [88].

| 购金和地缘政治风险难解，或使贵金属价格下跌空间有限，建议投资者逢回调布局多单为主；伦敦金关注3150-3250附近支撑位及3600-3700 | | --- | | 附近压力位，沪金730-760附近支撑位及800-850附近压力位，伦敦锅35-37附近支撑位及40-48附近压力位，沪银8600-9000附近支撑位及 | | 9500-10000附近压力位。(观点评分:1) | | 史表声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构、已具备期货交易咨询业务资格，本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开谈科，本公司对这些信息的推 | | 南佳和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何支化。我们已为求报告内容的客观、公正、但文中的观点、培论和建议及失参考，不构成任何投资建议。敌 | | 资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货设资所造成的一切后果、本公司搬不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有、未经书面许可、任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如 | | 引用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货、且不得对本报告进行有停原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和VIND。风险提示：期市有风险， ...

| 碳酸锂日评20250728:情绪扩大扰动 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-25 | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-18 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 79400.00 | 76500.00 | 69880.00 | 2.900.00 | | | | | 连一合约 | 80520.00 | 76680.00 | 69960.00 | 3.840.00 | 收盘价 | 79160.00 | 75000.00 | 69000.00 | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 4,160.00 | | | | | 79160.00 | 75000.00 | 68620.00 | 收盘价 | 4,160.00 | 连三合约 | Al | ~ | 收盘价 | 80520.00 | 76680.00 | 69960.00 | 3,840.00 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250728: 焦煤回落, 尿素或有补跌 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 变化值 | 单位 | 7月25日 | 7月24日 | | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1807.00 1790.00 1690.00 | 1796.00 1810.00 1670.00 | 11.00 -20.00 20.00 | 0.61% -1.10% 1.20% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1822.00 | 1804.00 | 18.00 | 1.00% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1803.00 | 1785.00 | 18.00 | 1.01% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1810.00 | 1830.00 | -20.00 | -1.09% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 178 ...

美国梦议院通过稳定币相关法案目将准许养老基金等投资黄金、数字货币等资产；进口关税推升商品价格数美国6月消费端通胀6PI年率有所升高 | 初清失业金人数为21.7万低于预期和前值，但因特朗普政府持续施压绳威尔实施降息，使美联储9月降息极率有所升高但12月降息概率有所下降。 | | | --- | --- | | Mewnoort旗下加拿大Red Chris 铜矿(25年预期生产量为2万金属吨)的非生产性项目地下作业区通道发生明锡事故而暂停运营，盎格鲁亚洲矿业 | | | (Anglo Asian Minine) 旗下Denirli)阿萨持成生产使2年铜精矿生产量为4000吨而26年及以后铜精矿生产量将增至1.5万吨，俄罗斯Mornickel | | | 将25年铜生产量由35. 3-37. 3万吨下调至34. 3-35. 5万吨，山西运城垣曲县五龙突业旗下洛家河铜矿发生炮烟中毒事故致三人死亡，五矿资源IIIo旗 | | | 下Laa Banbas（2025年预计生产量38万金属吨）和Budbard旗下Constancia（2025年预计生产量6-9.7万金属吨）因非正规矿工暂停封路坑议至7月 | | | 18日 ...

| 贵金属日评20250728:美欧达成关税贸易协议,美日达成关税协议提高日本央行加息预期 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 较上周变化 | 2025-07-21 | 2025-07-25 | 2025-07-24 | 收盘价 | 777.32 | 778.74 | 781.70 | -4. 38 | -1. 42 | | | | | | | 成交量 | 331217.00 | 190255.00 | -25, 933.00 | 216188.00 | -140, 962. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包量 | 213456.00 | 211239.00 | 211851.00 | -1, 605. 00 | 612. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 29358. 00 | 28857.00 | 1, 401. 00 | 30258.00 | 900. 00 | 上海 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere of bulk chemical products is strong, and the PTA market has risen. However, the spot market basis has weakened due to the PTA main supplier's shipments and the weakening of the quoted basis. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, and new device production expectations on the supply side and the off - season on the demand side make it difficult for unplanned device overhauls to boost prices. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to a full - line price decline. PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor [2]. - In the short term, after the release of emotions, the market will generally follow cost fluctuations. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 25, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $65.16 per barrel, down 1.32% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.44 per barrel, down 1.07%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $580.50 per ton, up 0.76%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $720.50 per ton, up 0.70% [1]. - **PTA**: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,936 yuan per ton, up 1.77% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,902 yuan per ton, up 1.83%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,894 yuan per ton, up 1.66% [1]. - **PX**: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 7,062 yuan per ton, up 1.52% from the previous value; the settlement price was 7,022 yuan per ton, up 1.74%. The spot price of p - xylene in the domestic market was 6,840 yuan per ton, up 1.76% [1]. - **PR**: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 6,130 yuan per ton, up 1.46% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,088 yuan per ton, up 1.16%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6,080 yuan per ton, up 1.25% [1]. - **Downstream**: On July 25, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,600 yuan per ton, up 0.23% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,950 yuan per ton, up 1.02% [2]. Supply - related Information - **Device Information**: The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, and the domestic PX is in a destocking cycle. PTA will have new device production in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time [2]. Demand - related Information - **Industry Operating Rate**: On July 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 77.29%, unchanged from the previous value; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.59%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester factories was 87.01%, unchanged [1]. - **Sales Rate**: On July 25, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 29%, down 15 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 78%, up 10 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 130%, up 44 percentage points [1]. Market Analysis and Strategy - **PX**: This week, the PX price rose after a stalemate, with the absolute price on Friday up 4.2% to $874 per ton CFR compared to the previous period. The weekly average price rebounded slightly, up 1.2% to $851 per ton CFR. Whether the PX profit can continue to rise depends on more unexpected factors. Currently, due to the off - season of polyester consumption and the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - **PTA**: In the third quarter, PTA will have new device production, and the current PTA processing fee is in a low - range. The polyester factories actually carried out maintenance in July, and the operating rate decreased significantly compared to June. Attention should be paid to whether the rumors of several PTA device overhauls in early August will be realized [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by the anti - involution trend, bulk commodities are strong. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,936 yuan per ton (up 2.53%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.2 million lots; the PX2509 contract closed at 7,062 yuan per ton (up 2.32%), with an intraday trading volume of 190,000 lots; the PR2509 contract closed at 6,130 yuan per ton (up 1.86%), with an intraday trading volume of 62,600 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2].

| 镍与不锈钢日评20250728:"反内卷"情绪回落,波动加大 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-18 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-25 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 124210.00 | 124160.00 | 120500.00 | 50.00 | | | | | | | | | | 期货连一合约 | 124360.00 | 124360.00 | 120580.00 | 0.00 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 124520.00 | 120670.00 | -30.00 | 124490.00 | | | | | 期货连三合约 | 124660.00 | 124710.00 | 120790.00 | -50.00 | 收盘价 | 收盘价 | 124360.00 | 124360.00 | 120500. ...

| | | 甲醇日评20250728: 焦煤回落,甲醇补跌 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | | 单位 | 2025/7/25 | 2025/7/24 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | (絕对圓) | (相对值) | | MA01 | | 元/吨 | 2587.00 | 2550.00 | 37.00 | 1.45% | | MA05 甲醇期货价格 | | 元/吨 | 2504.00 | 2473.00 | 31.00 | 1.25% | | (收盘价) MA09 | | 元/吨 | 2519.00 | 2480.00 | 39.00 | 1.57% | | 太仓 | | 元/吨 | 2487.50 | 2460.00 | 27.50 | 1.12% | | 山东 | | 元/吨 | 2340.00 | 2300.00 | 40.00 | 1.74% | | 广东 期现价格 | | 元/吨 | 2460.00 | 2440.00 | 20.00 | 0.82% | | 甲醇规赏价格 及基差 陕西 (日度均 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The lead market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. Due to the warm domestic market sentiment, lead prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [1]. - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with continuous inventory accumulation, resulting in a weak fundamental situation. However, strong market bullish sentiment may lead to zinc prices trading in a range in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: On July 28, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 16,955 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,020.50 dollars/ton, down 0.12%. The ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.39, up 0.51% [1]. - **Industry Operation Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 63.37%, a 2.5 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of recycled lead enterprises was 40.7%, a 2.8 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.86%, a 0.9 - percentage - point increase. The electric bicycle trade - in program has boosted the industry, with a 113.5% average monthly - on - month increase in sales from January to June 2025, and a 27.6% year - on - year increase in the production of the top ten brands [1]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment - related maintenance last week, leading to a slight decline in production. For recycled lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and some smelters have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. As the inventory of electrolytic lead in factories decreases, the market's acceptance of high - priced recycled lead has improved. The market still anticipates peak - season consumption, but most enterprises suspended purchases at the end of the month for inventory checks [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: On July 28, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,700 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 22,885 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,829.00 dollars/ton, down 0.40%. The ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 8.09, down 0.16% [1]. - **Industry Operation Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 59.42%, a 0.30 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 51.03%, a 0.92 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 55.99%, a 0.33 - percentage - point decrease. The total inventory of zinc concentrates at major Chinese ports was 35.4 million tons, a decrease of 8.6 million tons from the previous week [1]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic smelters are negotiating next - month's zinc processing fees, and it is expected that processing fees will continue to rise in August. With the continuous strength of zinc prices during the week, downstream off - season purchases have significantly decreased [1].