Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoint - The current supply and demand are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent, and the weekly production of lithium carbonate has reached a new high. The downstream market remains hesitant, but the spot market trading has picked up. The power demand is weakening, and the exchange is taking measures to cool down the market. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - On November 25, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upwards. The trading volume was 511,279 lots (+56,667), and the open interest was 343,199 lots (-21,879) [1] - The prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts all increased compared to the previous day. The price increases were 5,140 yuan/ton, 4,920 yuan/ton, 4,860 yuan/ton, and 4,860 yuan/ton respectively [1] Spot Market - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,050 yuan/ton (-100), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 89,650 yuan/ton (-100) [1] - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,067 US dollars/ton (-4), and the mica prices remained flat [1] Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, including the production from all raw materials. In November, the production of lithium carbonate increased, while the production of lithium hydroxide decreased [1] - Downstream demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In November, the production of energy - storage batteries increased. The production of power batteries decreased last week [1] - Terminal demand: In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, and the 3C product shipments weakened [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 26,615 tons (+105), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and downstream decreased, while other inventories increased [1] Industry News - Pioneer Lithium on the Australian Securities Exchange announced that as the global economy shows initial signs of stabilizing after a long - term slump, the company has initiated internal planning to restart the on - site operations of its Root Lake lithium mine project in Ontario, Canada [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On November 25th, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upwards, with trading volume at 511,279 lots (+56,667) and open interest at 343,199 lots (-21,879). The spot market trading picked up, and the basis changed from positive to negative. The price of spodumene concentrate decreased, while the mica price remained flat. On the supply side, the lithium carbonate output increased last week, with both types of production rising. In terms of downstream demand, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. In November, the production of lithium carbonate increased, while the production of lithium hydroxide decreased. The output of power batteries decreased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October; the 3C shipments weakened; the production of energy - storage batteries increased in November. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 26,615 tons (+105), and the social inventory declined. Both smelters and downstream industries reduced inventory, while others remained stable. Currently, both supply and demand are strong. There are repeated reports of the resumption of production in Jiangxi lithium mines, and the weekly output of lithium carbonate reached a new high. Downstream market sentiment remains cautious, but the spot market trading has picked up. The power demand is weakening, and the exchange has taken measures to cool down the market. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to short on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Contract Closing Prices**: The closing prices of the near - month contract, consecutive - one contract, consecutive - two contract, and consecutive - three contract on November 25, 2025, were 95,340.00, 95,400.00, 95,640.00, and 95,640.00 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 511,279 lots (+56,667), and the open interest was 343,199 lots (-21,879) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 26,615 tons (+105) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed. For example, the spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 60.00 (+220.00) [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Price Data - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,067.00 dollars/ton (-4.00), and the prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained stable [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) decreased by 100.00 yuan/ton to 92,050.00 and 89,650.00 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of different types of lithium hydroxide also decreased by 100.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Other Materials**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%/domestic) increased by 2,500.00 yuan/ton to 160,500.00 yuan/ton. The prices of various ternary precursors and materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other materials also had different degrees of changes [1]. 3.3 Industry News - Pioneer Lithium, listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, announced that as the global economy shows initial signs of stabilization after a long - term slump, the company has initiated internal planning to restart the on - site operations of its Root Lake lithium mine project in Ontario, Canada. The company said it saved capital during the low - price cycle while retaining the option to advance its highest - quality assets when market conditions improve. With the recovery of market sentiment, Pioneer is now evaluating the plan to re - start the Root Lake geophysical exploration program [1]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The lithium carbonate output increased last week, with both types of production rising. The production of lithium carbonate increased in November, while the production of lithium hydroxide decreased [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. The output of power batteries decreased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October; the 3C shipments weakened; the production of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - The registered warehouse receipts were 26,615 tons (+105), and the social inventory declined. Both smelters and downstream industries reduced inventory, while others remained stable [1]. 3.6 Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is to short on rallies [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The current bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear. Urea's rebound from the bottom is not significant, and its valuation remains relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. However, the new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, so low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market. In the long - term, it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On November 25, UR01 closed at 1630 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or 0.49% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1701 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.58%; UR09 closed at 1716 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan or 0.35% [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In Shandong, it was 1630 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.61%; in Shanxi, 1500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.66%; in Henan, 1640 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.61%. The price in Northeast China increased by 20 yuan or 1.18% to 1720 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased by 30 yuan or 1.00% to 3030 yuan/ton, and in Henan, it increased by 30 yuan or 1.18% to 2580 yuan/ton. The melamine price in Shandong increased by 23 yuan or 0.45% to 5190 yuan/ton [1]. b. Important Information The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1639 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1642 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1627 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1630 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1633 yuan/ton [1]. c. Trading Strategy In the long - term, pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips [1].

镍与不锈钢日评20251126:考验支撑有效性 数据来源:SMM W | 交易日期(日) | 2025-11-25 | 2025-11-24 | 2025-11-18 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 115940.00 | 115320.00 | 620.00 | 114840.00 | 3 | 2 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 115000.00 | 116160.00 | 115530.00 | 630.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 3 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 116330.00 | 115710.00 | 115220.00 | 620.00 | | | | | | | | | 3 | 115980.00 | 580.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 116560.00 | 115460.00 | 7 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the lead price oscillated and declined. Although the processing fee of lead concentrate is likely to rise and difficult to fall, it has not had a substantial impact on refinery operations. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the production of primary lead has fluctuated slightly. The production of recycled lead has increased, and the demand from lead - battery enterprises has also increased. Overall, the supply shortage has improved, and the lead price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [1]. - For zinc, the zinc market fundamentals remain weak, and the short - term zinc price may be under pressure. In the medium term, the ore supply will tighten in the fourth quarter, which may affect the supply side and provide some support for the zinc price. It is recommended to trade within a range and hold previous short positions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data** - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.44% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract decreased by 0.53% compared to the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) remained unchanged. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased by 0.53% [1]. - The futures active contract trading volume increased by 5.40%, and the position decreased by 0.80%. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 3.05% [1]. - **Industry News** - Some waste lead - acid battery recycling enterprises in Beijing reduced the purchase price of waste automotive batteries by about 50 yuan/ton due to the continuous decline of lead price. They expect the purchase price to remain low in the short term [1]. - On November 24th, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 28.49 dollars/ton, and the position increased by 162 hands to 160,841 hands [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data** - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.09% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract decreased by 0.13% compared to the previous day. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) remained unchanged. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.13% [1]. - The futures active contract trading volume decreased by 18.76%, and the position increased by 3.41%. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.10% [1]. - **Industry News** - Kazakhstan's refined zinc production in October was 20,475 tons, a 1.5% increase from September. The total refined zinc production in the first 10 months of this year was 214,334 tons, a 3.7% year - on - year decrease [1]. - On November 24th, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 140.2 dollars/ton, and the position decreased by 1,637 hands to 216,552 hands [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current silicon market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and there is still pressure on the upside of silicon prices. The downstream replenishment willingness for polysilicon is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which restricts the upside space of the futures market [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) decreased by 0.51% to 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 0.22% to 8,960 yuan/ton, and the basis (East China 553 - futures main) was 390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [1]. Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, the southwest production area has gradually returned to the high-cost period of the dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped furnaces and production at the end of October, and the silicon enterprise start-up rate significantly declined. In Yunnan, only integrated enterprises or those with long-term order demand are in production, while the furnace start-up in the north is relatively stable. After offsetting increases and decreases, it is expected that the industrial silicon output in November will drop below 400,000 tons. In terms of demand, polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, silicone enterprises have reached a joint production reduction mechanism, which may weaken the demand for industrial silicon, and silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low levels is limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is range operation, and attention should be paid to the subsequent new warehouse receipt registration and the actual start-up of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N-type polysilicon material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg, the price of N-type re-feeding material decreased by 0.10% to 52.25 yuan/kg, the price of N-type mixed material and N-type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 2.65% to 54,730 yuan/ton, and the basis was -3,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,415 yuan [1]. Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, and some polysilicon factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting increases and decreases, it is expected that the output in October will still increase slightly, and the output in November is expected to decrease to about 120,000 tons month-on-month. In terms of demand, the polysilicon market trading is relatively light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises have strong resistance to high-priced resources, and the market is waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is to wait and see for the time being. Attention should be paid to the subsequent implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro sentiment, and those with previous long positions should pay attention to profit protection [1]. Other Information - On November 21, the Beijing Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the electricity price bidding for new energy incremental projects in the city in 2026. The electricity volume scale newly included in the mechanism in 2026 is 1.2 billion kWh, and the upper limit of the bidding price for wind power and photovoltaic power is 0.3598 yuan/kWh [1]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an Australian photovoltaic application report, showing that the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in Australia in 2024 was 5.2GW, and the total national installed capacity reached 40GW, including 26.1GW in distributed systems and 13.4GW in centralized systems. The newly installed capacity in 2024 has exceeded the historical cumulative installed capacity of 5.1GW in Australia as of the end of 2015 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are weak, with prices facing upward pressure. For industrial silicon, supply is contracting and costs are rising, providing some support for prices, but weak demand restricts upward movement. For polysilicon, there is a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and prices are under pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Price Review - **Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract on November 21, 2025, was 8,960 yuan/ton, down 0.67% from November 14. Spot prices of different grades in various regions showed minor fluctuations, with some prices rising slightly [10]. - **Polysilicon and Related Product Prices**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract on November 21, 2025, was 53,360 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from November 14. The prices of N - type polysilicon materials remained stable, while the prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components decreased [10]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Silica prices remained stable due to downstream rigid - demand procurement. Electricity prices in the southwest region increased during the flat - dry season. Electrode prices remained stable due to weak supply and demand. Silicon coal prices increased due to cost drivers, while petroleum coke prices remained stable [16][22][27][33]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: In November, industrial silicon supply is expected to fall below 400,000 tons, a decrease of about 12%, in line with the same period in previous years. The opening of furnaces in the southwest region decreased, while the output in the northwest region was stable with a slight increase [4]. - **Demand**: In the polysilicon industry, production is expected to decline. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to support prices, with a consensus on stepped production cuts, resulting in a decrease in demand for industrial silicon. The silicon - aluminum alloy industry has no production increase or decrease plans, and its operation is stable [4]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase. In November, due to maintenance and production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan and some increases in Inner Mongolia, the total production is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons [4]. - **Demand**: The front - end installation rush in the first half of the year overdrafted some demand in the second half. Domestic bidding projects decreased, and overseas demand declined, putting pressure on the component side. If domestic demand remains weak, component production cuts may increase. Battery cell inventories are accumulating, and prices are generally falling. Silicon wafer inventories are also increasing, and production in November is expected to decline [4]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Industrial Silicon**: Except for some silicon enterprises in the southwest that have reduced production, most manufacturers are in normal production. Due to relatively low prices, silicon enterprises are less willing to sell, and inventories are accumulating. As of November 20, the total industrial silicon social inventory (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 548,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 tons [4][131]. - **Polysilicon**: As of November 20, the total polysilicon inventory was 271,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.72 GW. As of November 21, the registered polysilicon warehouse receipts were 7,500 lots [4]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Industrial Silicon**: Driven by the sentiment of the organic silicon industry, industrial silicon prices briefly rose last week. Fundamentally, supply contraction and cost increases provide some support for silicon prices, but weak demand restricts upward movement. It is expected that silicon prices will remain range - bound in the short term, with an operating range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: There is a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". Downstream prices are being lowered due to poor demand and inventory pressure. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, and polysilicon prices are under pressure. Attention should be paid to protecting the profits of previous long positions [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For electrolytic nickel, the strategy is to wait and see, with an expected operating range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [4][5][94] - For stainless steel, the strategy is to sell short on rallies, with an expected operating range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][120][121] 2. Core Views - The nickel market has a loose fundamental situation, high inventory, but low valuation. With fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations, nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [5][94] - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, a persistently loose fundamental situation, and weakening cost support. It is expected to remain weak [6][121] 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel oscillated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 3.21%. Trading volume reached 566,800 lots (+116,200), and open interest reached 160,700 lots (+48,500). LME nickel fell 1.82% weekly, with trading volume of 43,100 lots (+2,000) [10] - The basis premium was 2,220 yuan/ton [12] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores each dropped by 1 dollar/wet ton, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton [16] - In October, the Philippines' nickel - ore exports rebounded. China's nickel - ore imports reached 4.68 million tons, a 23.4% month - on - month decrease and an 11.0% year - on - year increase [22] - Last week, the nickel - ore arrival volume decreased by 378,000 tons, and port inventory decreased by 250,000 wet tons [24] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped by 13 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel and the premium to scrap stainless steel both narrowed [29] - In October, China's nickel - iron imports were 905,000 tons, a 16.6% month - on - month decrease and a 31.0% year - on - year increase. November imports are expected to remain stable [32] - BF profit contracted, and the operating rate declined. RKEF losses widened, but the operating rate rose [36] - In November, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those of Indonesian nickel pig iron increased [40] - Nickel - iron inventory accumulated [42] 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel decreased [46] - The import loss of electrolytic nickel narrowed [50] - In October, both the import and export volumes of electrolytic nickel decreased [54] 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In November, stainless - steel production schedules decreased, and the production schedule of 300 - series stainless steel was basically flat [59] - In October, stainless - steel exports decreased by 14.4% month - on - month and 14.2% year - on - year, while imports increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 21.6% year - on - year. November's import and export volumes are expected to decline [63] 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The decline in pure - nickel prices was greater than that of nickel sulfate, and the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely small [68] - In November, the production schedule of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and increased by 20.4% year - on - year, while the production schedule of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month - on - month and 39.8% year - on - year [73] - In November, the production schedule of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 23.4% year - on - year [75] - In October, new - energy vehicle production was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [81] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE and LME nickel inventories decreased [82] - Last week, the pure - nickel inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged, and the total social inventory in six regions decreased by 855 tons [87] 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowinning nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, high - grade nickel matte, and MHP decreased. MHP integrated production of electrowinning nickel had a significant cost advantage over high - grade nickel matte [93] 2.1 Stainless - Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless - steel futures oscillated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 0.97%. The basis shrank to 1,040 yuan/ton. Trading volume reached 616,600 lots (+126,300), and open interest reached 171,200 lots (+3,500) [97] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased, weakening cost - side support [100] - The profit of 200 - series stainless steel decreased, the loss of 300 - series stainless steel narrowed, and the profit of 400 - series stainless steel decreased [105] 2.3 Fundamentals - In November, stainless - steel production schedules decreased, and the production schedule of 300 - series stainless steel was basically flat [109] - In October, stainless - steel exports decreased, while imports increased. November's import and export volumes are expected to decline [112] 2.4 Inventory Side - The domestic social inventory of stainless steel decreased. 200 - series and 300 - series inventories decreased, while 400 - series inventory increased [118] 2.5 Market Outlook - The strategy for stainless steel is to sell short on rallies, with an expected operating range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Due to weak demand, a loose fundamental situation, and weakening costs, stainless steel is expected to remain weak [6][120][121]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the delivery of the SHFE lead 2511 contract ended, some delivered lead returned to the spot market, causing lead prices to fluctuate and decline. With no obvious improvement in consumption and a slight weakening of cost - side support, it is expected that lead prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downside space is limited. Previous short positions should pay attention to profit protection. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on smelter operations [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1.1 Market Review - The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots decreased by 2.01% month - on - month to 17,075 yuan/ton. The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract decreased by 1.89% to 17,165 yuan/ton. The LME lead closing price (electronic trading) dropped by 3.73% to 1,989 US dollars/ton [15]. 2.1 Tight Ore Supply Pattern Persists, TC Declining - The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat month - on - month at 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore supply remains unchanged, and due to the high - level volatility of precious metal prices, the TC quotation is stable but trending downwards. Smelter profits are good, and as of November 14, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 308.2 yuan/ton [38]. 2.2 Primary Lead Operating Rate Slightly Increased to 67.7% - The primary lead operating rate increased slightly month - on - month to 67.7%. The production of major deliverable brands of primary lead in China showed certain changes, with the total weekly production of major deliverable primary lead smelters being 49,850 tons in the week of November 14, 49,550 tons in the week of November 21, and an expected 49,650 tons this week [39][44]. 3.1 Scrap Battery Prices Weakened - As of November 21, the average price of scrap batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. During the week, lead prices fluctuated and declined, and some smelters lowered their scrap battery quotes, weakening the cost support. Considering that battery scrapping is gradually entering the off - season and the number of recyclers is decreasing, it is expected that scrap battery prices may have an upward adjustment expectation [53]. 3.1 Recycled Lead Smelter Profits Declined - As of November 21, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 169 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 43 yuan/ton. The decline in lead prices from a high level and the limited decline in scrap battery prices squeezed the profits of recycled lead smelters [59]. 3.2 Recycled Lead Raw Material Inventory Increased, Finished Product Inventory Decreased - As of November 20, the recycled lead raw material inventory was 158,900 tons, showing a month - on - month increase, and the recycled lead finished product inventory was 2,380 tons. Currently, the restarted recycled lead enterprises are still in the production ramping - up stage, and due to long - term order deliveries, the volume of spot goods is limited. Downstream enterprises maintain just - in - time replenishment, making it difficult to accumulate recycled lead finished product inventory [62]. 3.3 Recycled Lead Operating Rate Increased - The recycled lead enterprise operating rate increased by 2.3 percentage points month - on - month to 50.5%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of recycled lead was 60,100 tons, showing an increase. The environmental control in Henan was lifted, and raw material arrivals improved, leading to an increase in the local operating rate. This week, considering that a smelter in Anhui needs to temporarily stop production for the replacement of its hazardous waste business license, the smelter operating rate will decline [65]. 4 Lead Battery Operating Rate Remained Stable - The lead battery operating rate remained flat month - on - month at 70.56%. There was no obvious change in the terminal market, and the battery operating rate was stable. By segment, the electric bicycle battery market weakened, the electric tricycle battery market was okay, and the automotive battery market was stable. Before the recovery of new orders, it is expected that battery enterprises will maintain a production - to - order model [73]. 5 Import Profit Window May Open - As of November 14, the refined lead export loss was about 2,900 yuan/ton. As of November 21, the import profit was 10.51 yuan/ton, and the import profit window may open [84]. 6.1 Lead Ingot Inventory Declined - As of November 20, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 37,700 tons, showing a decline. The inventory of major deliverable brands of primary lead at the factory was 6,380 tons, showing a month - on - month decline. After the delivery, lead ingots returned to the spot market, and downstream enterprises made just - in - time purchases after the decline in lead prices, leading to inventory depletion [97]. 6.2 SHFE Inventory Decreased, LME Inventory Increased - As of November 21, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 38,900 tons, showing a month - on - month decrease. As of November 20, the LME inventory was 262,850 tons, showing an increase [100]. 6.3 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet for lead from July 2024 to August 2025, including data on primary lead production, recycled lead production, exports, imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory [101].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. However, from a driving perspective, the new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market. In the long - term, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shanxi decreased by 16 yuan/ton (-0.97%), UR05 decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.98%), UR09 decreased by 12 yuan/ton (-0.69%); in Shandong, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.61%) [1] - Domestic small - particle urea spot prices: remained unchanged in Henan, Hebei, and Northeast China; decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.61%) in Shandong and Jiangsu [1] - Upstream cost: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged [1] - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong remained unchanged; the price of melamine in Shandong increased by 33 yuan/ton (0.64%), and remained unchanged in Jiangsu [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 7 yuan/ton; the spread of 01 - 05 increased by 1 yuan/ton [1] 3. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1647 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1652 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1626 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1638 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1637 yuan/ton, and the position was 232305 lots [1] 4. Trading Strategy - In the long - term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1]