Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, after a significant increase in lead prices, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Meanwhile, refinery profits are good, the import window is open, and the tight supply situation has improved. There is significant pressure on the upside of lead prices, and there is a risk of a sharp decline in lead prices. For zinc, the macro - sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply pattern has tightened. The domestic TC is likely to fall rather than rise, and LME zinc is in a deep backwardation structure, providing some support for zinc prices. However, considering the weak domestic end - market, there may be a lack of continuous upward momentum for zinc prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.14% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract fell by 0.94% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 30.04%, the open interest decreased by 8.01%, and the trading - to - open - interest ratio decreased by 23.95%. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.21%. The closing price of LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) increased by 0.07%, and the Shanghai - to - London lead price ratio decreased by 1.02% [1]. - **Industry News**: A large recycled lead refinery in North China has shut down its blast furnace for maintenance, with the resumption date undetermined, affecting refined lead production by 300 - 400 tons per day. A large lead - acid battery enterprise in Central China plans to reduce or halt production from October 28 to November 2, 2025, for 7 days due to rising raw material prices, sufficient product inventory, and high risks at high lead prices [1]. - **Fundamentals and Strategy**: The import of lead concentrates is not expected to increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the supply of recycled lead has increased. The terminal market has improved, and the demand for lead - acid battery enterprises has increased. The trading strategy is to hold existing short positions [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.27% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract decreased by 0.25% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 7.23%, the open interest decreased by 0.41%, and the trading - to - open - interest ratio increased by 7.66%. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 3.88%. The closing price of LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) decreased by 0.07%, and the Shanghai - to - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.18% [1]. - **Industry News**: In September 2025, Chile exported 0.13 million tons of zinc concentrates, and the cumulative export volume from January to September was 4.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.5%. In August 2025, Peru exported 189,600 physical tons of zinc concentrates, a month - on - month decrease of 15%, and the cumulative export volume from January to August was 1.4328 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17%. In August 2025, Bolivia produced 37,400 metal tons of zinc concentrates, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, and the cumulative production from January to August was 333,200 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. On October 27, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $212.89 per ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,274 lots to 222,244 lots [1]. - **Fundamentals and Strategy**: Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees have continued to rise. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees are likely to decline in October. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, with an expected monthly output of around 600,000 tons. The demand has not improved significantly, and the zinc ingot export window may open. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply of industrial silicon still shows a certain increase, while the improvement in demand is limited. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the futures price. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, recent supply - side news has pushed up the futures price, but considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it is difficult to have a concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to rise further [1]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) also remained flat at 9,650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.11% to 8,955 yuan/ton. The N - type polysilicon material price remained flat at 51.50 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.27% to 54,355 yuan/ton [1]. Market Fundamentals - Supply side: In October, the southwest production area of industrial silicon is entering the high - cost dry season, with some silicon enterprises planning to reduce or stop production at the end of this month or next month, while the start - up rate of northern silicon enterprises has increased, resulting in an overall increase in the total start - up rate. For polysilicon, although enterprises are maintaining a production reduction trend, the output is expected to increase in October [1]. - Demand side: For industrial silicon, polysilicon enterprises are maintaining production reduction, organic silicon enterprises are at the pre - holiday start - up level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, with limited willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices. For polysilicon, the market transaction was light during the National Day, with few new transactions, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced resources [1]. Investment Strategies - Industrial silicon: The market is in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the futures price. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is range - bound operation [1]. - Polysilicon: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, one can try to go long on dips. Existing long positions should pay attention to profit protection [1]. Industry News - The Guangzhou Development and Reform Commission announced the public notice of the application situation of the stock projects of the new energy sustainable development price settlement mechanism, with 265 distributed photovoltaic projects and a total approved (filed) capacity of 1545.47MW, among which 1502.01MW was put into operation before June 1, 2025. The Mexican Energy Ministry released the National Power System Development Plan, prioritizing renewable energy and energy storage, with expected new power generation capacity between 6.4GW and 9.55GW, 96% of which comes from solar and wind energy, and clean energy generation is expected to account for 38% of the total power generation by 2030 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report expects PX, PTA, and PR to experience narrow - range fluctuations [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - On October 28, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and various upstream products such as naphtha and xylene decreased. The WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $60.15 per barrel, down 1.89% from the previous value; the Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $64.40 per barrel, down 1.86% [1]. - The prices of PTA and PX futures and spot showed mixed trends. For example, the CZCE TA main - contract settlement price was 4,614 yuan per ton, up 0.79%, and the CZCE PX main - contract settlement price was 6,612 yuan per ton, up 0.36% [1]. - The prices of PR futures and spot also changed. The CZCE PR main - contract settlement price was 5,720 yuan per ton, up 0.67%, and the prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East China and South China markets increased [1]. - The CCFEI price indices of various polyester products such as polyester staple fiber, polyester chips, and bottle - grade chips increased on October 28, 2025 [2]. Industry Information - Dushan Energy's 4 2.7 - million - ton PTA device started trial operation on October 25, 2025, and will shut down the old device after the new one runs stably [2]. - The market has initially priced in the impact of sanctions on Russia, and the upward momentum of oil prices is insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, due to Saudi Arabia's push to regain market share, oil prices may face oversupply pressure [2]. - The domestic PX operating load is at a high level, and a device in the Northeast may complete capacity expansion at the end of the month. The demand from the PTA side is okay, and the market game atmosphere has intensified [2]. - The sentiment in the PTA market was boosted by the industry meeting. Although the new PTA capacity in East China started trial production, the expectation of anti - involution offset its impact. However, it may be difficult to coordinate a new production - cut plan [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region had a mainstream negotiation price range of 5,730 - 5,830 yuan per ton on October 28, 2025, up 15 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The supply - side offer intention increased, but the downstream buying was weak [2]. Production and Sales - On October 28, 2025, the operating rates of the PX, PTA, polyester, bottle - chip, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom industries in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged [1]. - The production - sales rates of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips decreased. The polyester filament production - sales rate was 62.50%, down 7.50 percentage points; the polyester staple fiber production - sales rate was 43.50%, down 39.93 percentage points; and the polyester chip production - sales rate was 57.61%, down 164.56 percentage points [1]. Trading Volume - On October 28, 2025, the trading volume of the PX2601 contract was 162,800 lots, the trading volume of the TA2601 contract was 755,500 lots, and the trading volume of the PR2601 contract was 31,200 lots [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Electrolytic nickel: Hold [4][91] - Stainless steel: Sell on rallies [5][117] 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic nickel, the supply - side shows rising nickel ore prices, decreased port arrivals and inventory, reduced domestic ferronickel production and increased Indonesian production, and rising domestic refined nickel production and export profits. The demand - side has increasing production of ternary materials and precursors, rising stainless - steel mill production, and stable alloy plating demand. With increasing social inventory and decreasing bonded - area inventory, the fundamentals are loose, inventory pressure is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][91]. - For stainless steel, the production of stainless - steel mills is rising while the 300 - series production is falling, and the terminal demand is weak. The cost support is weakening with falling nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices. With inventory reduction, the upward driving force is expected to be insufficient [5][117]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated at a low level with a weekly increase of 0.67%. The trading volume decreased to 442,200 lots (- 44,100), and the open interest increased to 121,400 lots (+ 60,900). LME nickel rose 1.32% weekly, and the trading volume decreased to 27,100 lots (- 7,500). The basis premium was 750 yuan/ton [10][12] 1.2 Supply - side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores rose by 1 dollar/wet ton each, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China remained flat. In September, Philippine nickel ore exports decreased, and China's imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase. Last week, the arrival volume decreased by 818,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 290,000 wet tons [16][23][25] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 9 yuan/nickel point, and that of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron fell by 200 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and the premium to scrap stainless steel remained flat. In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month and 47.2% year - on - year increase, and the imports in October are expected to decline. In October, domestic production and operation rates decreased, while those in Indonesia increased, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased [30][33][41] Electrolytic Nickel - In October, the production and operation rates of refined nickel increased. The export profit of electrolytic nickel expanded. In September, imports increased and exports decreased [47][51][55] 1.3 Demand - side Stainless Steel - In October, stainless - steel production increased while 300 - series production decreased. In September, exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, and imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year, and the imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [60][64] New Energy - The premium between nickel sulfate and pure nickel shrank, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was very small. In October, the production schedules of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and nickel sulfate increased, with month - on - month increases of 16.2%, 4.3%, and 5.1% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 2.8%, 33.7%, and 24.3% respectively. In September, new - energy vehicle production was 1.617 million units, a 16.3% month - on - month and 23.7% year - on - year increase, and sales were 1.604 million units, a 15.0% month - on - month and 24.6% year - on - year increase [70][73][81] 1.4 Inventory - Last week, SHFE and LME nickel inventories increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory decreased by 300 tons, and the six - region social inventory increased by 1,094 tons [82][87] 1.5 Electrolytic Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate remained unchanged, while the costs from high - grade nickel matte and MHP increased. MHP integrated production has a significant cost advantage over high - grade nickel matte integrated production [90] 2.2 Cost and Profit - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices fell, weakening cost support. The 200 - series turned profitable, and the losses of the 300 - series and 400 - series narrowed [97][102] 2.3 Fundamental - In October, stainless - steel production increased while 300 - series production decreased. In September, exports decreased and imports increased, and the imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [106][109] 2.4 Inventory - The domestic stainless - steel social inventory decreased. The 200 - series inventory remained flat, while the 300 - series and 400 - series inventories decreased [115]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the silicon market have not significantly improved. The supply side shows a situation of both increases and decreases, remaining generally stable. The demand side is mainly driven by rigid - demand purchases, and the silicon market maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The poor demand remains the main factor restricting the upward movement of silicon prices. It is expected that silicon prices will maintain range - bound trading in the short term, with an operating range of 8,300 - 9,300 yuan/ton. [3] - The polysilicon market has weak terminal demand, resulting in light trading. Overall, there is a wait - and - see attitude. The price center maintains high - level range fluctuations in the game between policy - driven positive expectations and weak fundamentals. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Industrial Silicon 3.1.1. Cost and Profit - In the context of anti - involution sentiment and increasing demand, the prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded. The south - west production area is gradually shifting from the wet season to the dry season, and power costs will gradually rise. [3] - In September, the average profit of industrial silicon 553 nationwide was - 1,029 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 252 yuan/ton; the average profit of industrial silicon 421 was - 665 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 267 yuan/ton. [35] 3.1.2. Supply - As the dry season approaches and production costs rise, most silicon enterprises in the south - west production area are expected to stop production at the end of the month, while a small number are temporarily waiting and watching. At the same time, some silicon enterprises in the north - west regions such as Xinjiang, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia have the intention to increase production, and the current operation is relatively stable. [3] - In the week of October 24, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises decreased by 1 compared with the previous week, mainly in Inner Mongolia. [36] 3.1.3. Demand - The polysilicon production in October may still increase slightly, which will increase the demand for industrial silicon. Organic silicon enterprises are mostly in a state of production reduction or maintenance, and it is difficult to increase the demand for industrial silicon. The demand for silicon - aluminum alloy remains stable, and the overall demand for industrial silicon is still weak. [3] 3.1.4. Inventory - Currently, most manufacturers are in normal production, but due to the relatively low price, the willingness to sell is low, and the factory inventory in the south - west region continues to accumulate. [3] 3.1.5. Market Outlook - The silicon market is expected to maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term, and silicon prices will maintain range - bound trading, with an operating range of 8,300 - 9,300 yuan/ton. [3] 3.2. Polysilicon 3.2.1. Supply - Last week, the polysilicon output was 29,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons. As of October 23, the polysilicon inventory was 25.8 million tons, an increase of 0.5 million tons. The output in September was 13 million tons, slightly lower than that in August, and it is expected to increase slightly in October. [68] 3.2.2. Demand - The terminal installation rush in the first half of the year overdrafted part of the demand in the second half of the year. The domestic bidding projects have decreased, the component side is under great pressure, and it is difficult to have obvious restocking actions. The support from the battery - chip side is insufficient as orders are delivered and overseas demand declines. [3] 3.2.3. Inventory - As of October 16, the total polysilicon inventory was 253,000 tons, and the silicon - wafer inventory was 17.31GW. As of October 17, the registered polysilicon warehouse receipts were 8,610 lots. [3] 3.2.4. Market Outlook - The polysilicon market has light trading, and the overall sentiment is one of waiting and watching. The price center maintains high - level range fluctuations in the game between policy - driven positive expectations and weak fundamentals. [3] 3.3. Organic Silicon 3.3.1. Supply - In September, the operating rate of China's DMC was 71.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38 percentage points. The DMC output was 210,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,900 tons. Recently, many enterprises are in a state of production reduction or maintenance. [98] 3.3.2. Demand - The previous orders have been basically delivered, new orders are scarce, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large. [105] 3.3.3. Market Outlook - The organic silicon price has declined. As of October 24, the average DMC price was 11,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.77%; the average 107 - rubber price was 11,500 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month; the average silicone oil price was 12,850 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%. [105] 3.4. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy 3.4.1. Supply - In the week of October 23, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 59%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.6%, remaining flat month - on - month. [113] 3.4.2. Market Outlook - The price of silicon - aluminum alloy has rebounded. As of October 24, the average ADC12 price was 21,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%; the average A356 price was 21,650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. [116] 3.5. Inventory - As of October 23, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 559,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons; the total factory inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 167,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons. As of October 24, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 48,327 lots, equivalent to 241,600 tons of physical goods. [128]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel Market**: The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The fundamentals are loose, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected that the upside space for stainless steel is limited. The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Price and Volume**: On October 27, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 129,533 lots (-15,670), and the open interest was 108,989 lots (-12,453). The LME nickel price fell 0.17%. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel iron smelters' losses deepened. In October, domestic production increased, and Indonesian production increased. Nickel iron inventories decreased. In October, domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Ternary battery production increased. Stainless steel mills' production increased. The demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - **Inventory**: Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, LME inventories increased, social inventories increased, and bonded area inventories decreased [1]. Stainless Steel Market - **Price and Volume**: On October 27, the main stainless steel contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 158,384 lots (+20,953), and the open interest was 115,124 lots (-29,055). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - **Supply**: In October, stainless steel production increased, and the production of the 300 - series decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost**: The price of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. Last week, the social inventory of the 300 - series was 612,700 tons (-9,000) [1]. Industry News - Indonesia's nickel processing industry has shown significant expansion. By 2025, Indonesia's nickel production is expected to account for 67% of the global total, and this proportion is expected to rise to 75% from 2027 - 2028. There are 173 nickel processing projects in progress, including 134 using pyrometallurgical technology (RKEF) and 39 using hydrometallurgical technology (HPAL). 65 RKEF plants and 12 HPAL plants are in commercial operation [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply and demand are both strong, with little inventory pressure upstream. The improvement in the macro - environment and the cancellation of warehouse receipts have driven up prices. However, production continues to grow while downstream stockpiling slows down, and the peak of power demand may be approaching. Therefore, beware of price spikes followed by declines. It is recommended to short on rallies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Prices**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month contract, consecutive - one contract, consecutive - two contract, and consecutive - three contract were 81,120 yuan/ton, 81,740 yuan/ton, 81,500 yuan/ton, and 79,100 yuan/ton respectively, showing an upward trend compared to previous dates. The active contract's closing price was 81,900 yuan/ton, up 2,380 yuan from the previous date [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the lithium carbonate futures was 514,455 lots (- 99,021), and the open interest was 483,478 lots (+ 52,304) [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 27,739 tons, a decrease of 960 tons from the previous date [3]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 620 yuan/ton, and the spreads between consecutive - one and consecutive - two, and consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts also showed certain changes [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price minus the closing price of the active lithium carbonate contract was - 1,230 yuan/ton, with an increase compared to the previous date [3]. 3.2 Spot Market of Lithium - Related Products - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 906 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars from the previous date; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) also increased [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 75,400 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 73,150 yuan/ton, with a stable price difference of 2,250 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The average prices of different types of lithium hydroxide also showed an upward trend, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate changed [3]. - **Other Products**: The prices of products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, negative electrode materials, and electrolytes also had corresponding changes [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica prices rose [3]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In October, the production scheduling of cobalt acid lithium and lithium carbonate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production scheduling of energy - storage batteries increased in October [3]. 3.4 Industry News Argentina's rich lithium, copper, and shale oil and gas resources in Vaca Muerta have attracted large - scale investments. However, the backward infrastructure is the main bottleneck for industry development. The government is promoting the tender of the Belerzano Cargas state - owned freight railway project to improve logistics [3].

研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 娱与不锈钢日评20251028:成本支撑走弱,不锈钢连高法空 数据采源:SMM W | 交易日期(日) | 2025-10-24 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-10-27 | 2025-10-20 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 122060.00 | 121860.00 | 120710.00 | 200.00 | 2 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货连一合约 | 7 | 122400.00 | 122150.00 | 250.00 | 收盘价 | 120860.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 122560.00 | 122310.00 | 121100.00 | 250.00 | 2 | | | | | | | 122730.00 ...

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Gold and Silver [1] Report Date and Author - Date: October 28, 2025 - Author: Wang Wenhu from the Research Institute [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Sino-US economic and trade relations' easing may put pressure on precious metal prices; Fed's possible rate cut and stop of balance sheet reduction in the long term support precious metal prices; some central banks' gold - related actions have mixed impacts on prices. It is expected that precious metal prices may adjust, and investors are advised to wait and see [3] Summary by Sections Part 1: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - **Fiscal Situation**: US unpaid public debt scale increased by $30.8 billion to $3.80 trillion; 2025 Q3 Treasury net issuance was $964.5 billion, and Q4 may decline. Permanent expansion of additional tax credits may increase fiscal deficits by $23.4 - $43.9 billion from 2026 - 2035; abolition of health insurance - related provisions may increase deficits by $1.4 - $37.5 billion [10] - **Monetary Policy Tools**: Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was $2.435 billion; bank reserve balance decreased, overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale increased, and Treasury cash account increased. The temporary appropriation bill passed by the House failed in the Senate. Fed's lending to commercial banks showed different trends, and the regular financing plan BTFP expired. The Fed used the standing repurchase facility SRF, with a cumulative use of $30.6 billion [11][13][16][17] - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: US September CPI was 3% year - on - year, core CPI was 3% year - on - year. October consumer inflation expectations were 4.6% (1 - year) and 3.9% (5 - year). Mid - long - term Treasury yields decreased due to Fed's expected rate cuts and stop of balance sheet reduction. The spread between long - and mid - term Treasuries was positive and widened [19][21][26] - **Financial Stress Index**: The US OFR financial stress index decreased to - 2.0930, with some sub - indicators rising. The Fed's use of SRF eased inter - bank liquidity [29] Part 2: US Economic and Employment Performance - **Commercial Bank Loans**: US commercial bank loan and lease volume increased week - on - week, with different trends in various loan types [33][35] - **Retail Sales**: US Redbook commercial retail sales annual rate decreased to 5.0% week - on - week, but consumer spending remained relatively stable [38] - **Mortgage Applications**: US 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates decreased, MBA mortgage application activity index decreased, and August new and existing home sales increased [41] - **Employment**: US initial jobless claims were 218,000, lower than expected and previous values; continued claims were 1.926 million, lower than expected but higher than previous values. September ADP private employment decreased by 32,000, indicating concerns about a weakening job market [44] - **International Bond Yield Spreads**: The spreads between US and German (Japanese) mid - long - term Treasury yields decreased due to different central bank policies [47] - **Exchange Rates**: Euro - US dollar exchange rate may bottom out, and US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate may weaken [48] - **Market Volatility**: US S&P 500 and gold ETF index volatilities decreased [50] Part 3: Gold - Silver Spread and Inventory Situation - **Gold**: COMEX gold non - commercial long - short position ratio decreased; COMEX and SHFE total gold inventory decreased. Gold futures and spot spreads, basis, and near - far contract spreads were at different levels, with corresponding investment suggestions [56][58][60][67][69][72] - **Silver**: London silver 1 - month lease rate decreased significantly; COMEX silver non - commercial long - short position ratio increased; COMEX, SHFE, and SGE total silver inventory decreased. Silver futures and spot spreads, basis, and near - far contract spreads were at different levels, with corresponding investment suggestions [73][76][79][83][84][85] - **Ratio Analysis**: "Gold - silver ratio" was between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years; "Gold - oil ratio" and "Gold - copper ratio" were much higher than the 90% quantiles of the past five years, with corresponding investment suggestions [87][89]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the lead price surges, the profits of smelters, especially secondary lead enterprises, have been significantly restored, and the supply shortage problem may be improved. Meanwhile, the high lead price suppresses the downstream purchasing enthusiasm, so the risk of the lead price rising and then falling is relatively large. Attention should be paid to the support level of 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 2.37% month - on - month to 17,300 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract increased by 3.05% to 17,595 yuan/ton; the LME lead closing price (electronic disk) rose by 2.28% to 2,016.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat month - on - month at 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased month - on - month to - 125 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore supply remained unchanged, and the TC quotation was stable with a weakening trend. The smelter's profit rebounded, and as of October 17, the smelter's profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was - 133.7 yuan/ton [31]. 2. Primary Lead - The primary lead operating rate increased month - on - month to 67.57%. The production of some refineries that resumed production was lower than expected, resulting in a phased supply shortage [2][32]. - The weekly production and maintenance arrangements of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises showed that the total weekly production was expected to be 50,300 tons. Some enterprises in Inner Mongolia had local maintenance, and some enterprises' production fluctuations recovered [37]. 3. Secondary Lead - As of October 24, the average price of waste batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The demand for waste batteries increased, but the stock in the hands of holders was limited, and they were reluctant to sell, so the price was prone to rise and difficult to fall [45]. - As of October 24, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was 260 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was 45 yuan/ton. The lead price strengthened, and the waste battery price did not follow the increase for the time being, so the smelter's profit increased significantly [51]. - As of October 23, the raw material inventory of secondary lead was 134,700 tons, and the finished product inventory was 3,920 tons. The refinery's operating rate increased, and the raw material inventory decreased. Due to the improvement of downstream purchasing enthusiasm and the tight supply of primary lead, the accumulation of secondary lead finished product inventory was not obvious, but it might gradually increase in the future [54]. - The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises increased by 7.1 percentage points month - on - month to 42.2%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 52,000 tons, showing an upward trend. The production increase of some refineries in Anhui and the resumption of production of a large - scale refinery in Inner Mongolia drove the overall increase in the operating rate of secondary lead [57]. 4. Lead Batteries - The operating rate of lead batteries increased by 0.39 percentage points month - on - month to 75.36%. The energy storage battery market performed well, and the orders of medium - and large - scale enterprises were relatively full. The electric bicycle and automobile battery markets had some differences, with the original equipment supporting orders being better than the replacement orders. However, the soaring lead price might affect the enterprise's operating rate and raw material purchasing enthusiasm [64]. 5. Import and Export - As of October 17, the export loss of refined lead was about 3,100 yuan/ton. As of October 24, the import profit was 329.16 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was opened [74]. 6. Inventory - As of October 27, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 30,300 tons, and the inventory decreased. The warehouse of the main deliverable brands of primary lead was 1,520 tons, showing a month - on - month decline. The resumption of production of refineries was lower than expected, while the downstream operating rate steadily increased and the purchasing was active, leading to a decrease in lead ingot inventory [84]. - As of October 24, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 36,300 tons, showing a month - on - month decrease. As of October 23, the LME inventory was 235,400 tons, also showing a decrease [87]. - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet showed the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from October 2024 to August 2025 [88].