Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Review 20251208: Tightening Supply - Demand Expectations of Electrolytic Copper in Non - US Regions Support Copper Prices" [2] Group 2: Market Data Shanghai Copper Futures - On December 5, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 92,780, up 1,800 from the previous day; trading volume was 188,062 lots, down 37,269; open interest was 236,494 lots, up 1,924; inventory was 30,936 tons, down 1,203; the basis was - 1,195, down 1,460 [3] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 91,585, up 340; the average opening discount of SMM flat - water copper was 110, down 10; the average opening premium of SMM premium copper was 240, unchanged [3] London Copper - On December 5, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 11,665, up 231 from the previous day; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 23.05, down 27.39; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 279, up 44.49; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9537, down 0.00 [3] COMEX Copper - On December 5, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.454, up 0.06 from the previous day; the total inventory was 436,853 tons, up 2,570 [3] Group 3: Core View - Due to production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, the China copper concentrate import index remains negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. Although the supply of scrap copper has increased and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased compared to the previous month, on the demand side, downstream buyers make rigid - need purchases due to high copper prices. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has decreased compared to last week, while the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange and COMEX has increased. Considering the expected future interest - rate cuts by the Fed, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish [3] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Hold long positions cautiously, pay attention to the support levels of 83,000 - 85,000 and the resistance levels of 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level of 10,100 - 10,500 and the resistance level of 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; and the support level of 4.8 - 5.0 and the resistance level of 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [3]

黑色金属周报-双焦 成本下移 焦化利润修复 2025年12月5日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 TEL：82292661 目录 第一部分 焦煤 第二部分 焦炭 1 焦煤 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2020年 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 焦煤库销比 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 数据来源：煤炭资源网、钢联、宏源期货研究所 价格方面，本周焦煤现货价格延续弱势。截至12月4日，蒙5原煤仓单1128元/吨 (+6)，山西单一 煤仓单1178元/吨（-40）；进口煤方面，加拿大鹿景仓单价格1256元/吨（+5）；期货方面，焦煤主 力合约价格下跌，环比上一交易周下跌1.03%，JM1-5价差-84(+1）元/吨。 基本面方面，从供应端来看，本周产 ...

[原ta油ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 12 月 5 日 震荡偏弱，注意波动率上升风险 风险提示：地缘局势的不确定性。 [table_main] 宏源公司类模板 分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@swhysc.com 相关研究 《原油 2025 年展望：增产预期压制上方 空间》 《宏源原油周报 20250110：低库存下油 价对于供给的潜在减量较为敏感》 《宏源原油二季度报告：等待利空因素 消化，不必过度悲观》 《原油月报：转机与阴霾同在》 《原油周报 20250509：短期以反弹修复 看待》 《原油 6 月展望：6 月仍有下行压力》 《原油 2025 年 H2 展望：利空因素逐步 消化，下半年谨慎看涨》 《原油周报20250711：短期矛盾不凸显， 油价波动率回归》 《原油 8 月展望：宏观与需求支撑转弱， 8 月注意下行压力》 《原油周报 20250822：短期或延续降波 震荡行情》 《原油 9 月展望：等待利空因素释放》 《原油周报 20251010：中东局 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The upward space of methanol 01 contract is quite limited. The reasons are that the overall profit of downstream MTO is poor, and further increase in methanol price may lead to downstream shutdown and negative demand feedback; downstream restocking willingness is weak due to profit levels and relatively high inventory of MTO enterprises and ports. It is recommended to hold the short put option of 01 contract until expiration and not to chase the rise of 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices (closing prices): MA01 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.70%) to 2113 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.23%) to 2209 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 4 yuan/ton (-0.18%) to 2211 yuan/ton [1]. - Methanol spot prices (daily average prices): Prices in most regions decreased, such as -5 yuan/ton in Taicang (-0.24%), -7.5 yuan/ton in Shaanxi (-0.38%), -10 yuan/ton in Sichuan and Chongqing (-0.46%), while Shandong increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.22%) [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: Prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.43%), 5 yuan/ton (-0.76%), and 5 yuan/ton (-0.76%) respectively [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit increased by 6.3 yuan/ton (2.54%) to 254.4 yuan/ton, while natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at -1160 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream profit: Profits of MTO in the northwest and east increased by 1.4 yuan/ton (0.58%) and 0.5 yuan/ton (0.06%) respectively; acetic acid profit increased by 24.64 yuan/ton (4.17%), MTBE profit decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-10.94%), and formaldehyde and other products' profits remained unchanged [1]. 3.4 Important Information - Domestic futures price: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak shock, opening at 2128 yuan/ton, closing at 2113 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1.053 million lots and an open interest of 934,600 lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1]. - Foreign information: Six methanol plants with a total capacity of 9.9 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are still under maintenance, and the daily methanol output has dropped to 14,400 tons. Attention should be paid to the number of loading ports in December [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy Hold the short put option of 01 contract until expiration [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View of the Report - Short - term attention should be paid to the risk of price correction, and the strategy should still focus on buying on dips. Urea's valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. However, the new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price. The low price may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market. The bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear, and medium - and long - term investors should focus on buying opportunities on dips [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: On December 4, it was 1688.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan (-0.24%) from December 3 [1] - UR05: On December 4, it was 1745.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan (-0.17%) from December 3 [1] - UR09: On December 4, it was 1763.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan (-0.28%) from December 3 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: On December 4, it was 1710.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan (1.79%) from December 3 [1] - Shanxi: On December 4, it was 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan (1.95%) from December 3 [1] - Henan: On December 4, it was 1710.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.18%) from December 3 [1] - Hebei: On December 4, it was 1730.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.17%) from December 3 [1] - Northeast: On December 4, it was 1740.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Jiangsu: On December 4, it was 1700.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.19%) from December 3 [1] Basis and Spreads - Basis (Shandong Spot - UR): On December 4, it was - 35.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan from December 3 [1] - Spread (01 - 05): On December 4, it was - 57.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan from December 3 [1] Upstream Costs - Henan Anthracite Coal Price: On December 4, it was 1030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Shanxi Anthracite Coal Price: On December 4, it was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price in Shandong: On December 4, it was 3100.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan (1.31%) from December 3 [1] - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price in Henan: On December 4, it was 2640.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (0.76%) from December 3 [1] - Melamine Price in Shandong: On December 4, it was 5217.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Melamine Price in Jiangsu: On December 4, it was 5250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1695 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1710 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1682 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1688 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1694 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume of 2601 was 209270 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Medium - and long - term investors should focus on buying opportunities on dips [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - On December 4, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. With a weak nickel fundamental and inventory pressure, along with the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, after the price recovered from a low level, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1][2]. - On December 4, the main stainless - steel contract also fluctuated within a range. Given the loose fundamentals and weakening cost support, stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Futures Market - On December 4, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts generally decreased. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 117,600 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 103,322 lots, a decrease of 9,126 lots, and the open interest of the active contract decreased by 577 lots [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai nickel futures increased, with the inventory on December 4 being 32,595 tons, an increase of 2,501 tons from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 400 yuan compared to the previous day. The basis (spot - to - futures) widened, with the basis of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price minus the closing price of the active nickel futures contract being 2,130 yuan on December 4 [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Nickel ore prices remained flat. The arrival volume of nickel ore at ports increased last week, and port inventories decreased. The loss of nickel - iron plants deepened, with domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production schedules decreasing in December. The domestic electrolytic nickel production schedule increased in December, and the loss of electrolytic nickel imports narrowed [2]. - Demand side: Ternary material production decreased; stainless - steel plant production schedules decreased; alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [2]. Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, LME, and social inventory increased, while the bonded - area inventory decreased [2]. Stainless - Steel Market Futures Market - On December 4, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 84,742 lots, an increase of 4,381 lots, and the open interest decreased by 871 lots [2]. - The inventory of stainless - steel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, with the inventory on December 4 being 62,157 tons, a decrease of 180 tons from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - Spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. For example, the basis of the average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) minus the active contract price was 775 yuan on December 4 [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Stainless - steel production decreased in December, and the production schedule of the 300 - series stainless - steel decreased [2]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was weak [2]. Cost - The price of high - grade nickel pig iron decreased, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [2]. Industry News - After the EU officially issued the new battery passport policy, the Indonesian nickel industry has once again become the focus. The full implementation of the policy is scheduled for February 2027. The preparation levels of Indonesian nickel producers vary, and the real challenge lies with producers in the early stage of development [2].

Report Summary - **Report Title**: "沪铜日评20251205:非美地区电解铜供需预期趋紧支撑铜价" [2] - **Report Date**: 2025-12-05 - **Reporting Company**: Hongyuan Futures Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The expected tightening of the supply and demand of electrolytic copper in non-US regions, along with the increasing expectation of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Data Comparison - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price was 86,060, up 1,770 from the previous day; the trading volume was 225,331 lots, an increase of 99,349 lots; the open interest was 234,570 lots, an increase of 10,586 lots; the inventory was 32,139 tons, an increase of 3,170 tons; the Shanghai copper basis was 265, up 495 [3]. - **London Copper**: On December 4, 2025, the LME 3-month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 11,434, down 14.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 50.44, down 37.94; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract spread was 234.51, up 17 [3]. - **COMEX Copper**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.362, up 0.12; the total inventory was 435,831 tons, an increase of 3,893 tons [3]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a continuous negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased compared to the previous month [3]. - **Demand Side**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cables, copper enameled tapes, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods has decreased compared to last week, and that of recycled copper rods has remained flat. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand procurement [3]. - **Inventory Side**: China's social inventory of electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, while the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange and COMEX has increased [3]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Hold existing long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support level of 83,000 - 85,000 and the resistance levels of 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level of 10,100 - 10,500 and the resistance level of 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; and the support level of 4.8 - 5.0 and the resistance level of 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of December 4, 2025, the spot main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated at a low level, with the trading volume increasing by 20,135 to 663,458 lots and the open interest decreasing by 2,207 to 560,629 lots. The spot market trading was sluggish, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - On the cost side, the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite decreased. On the supply side, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased, with the output from salt lakes decreasing and that from other raw materials increasing. In terms of downstream demand, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased last week. In December, the production and scheduled production of lithium carbonate decreased, while the output of power batteries rebounded last week. For terminal demand, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October, the 3C shipments weakened, and the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries stagnated in December [1]. - In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts increased by 770 to 10,422 tons, and the social inventory decreased, with smelters and others reducing inventory and downstream increasing inventory. Overall, both supply and demand are strong, and there are repeated reports of the resumption of mines in Jiangxi. The weekly output of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and downstream players still have a wait - and - see attitude. The spot market trading is sluggish, demand growth has stagnated, and the exchange has taken measures to cool down the market. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to hold short positions [1]. Summary by Related Content Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Prices - On December 4, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate were 90,680 yuan/ton, 92,260 yuan/ton, 92,480 yuan/ton, and 92,480 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 1,520 yuan/ton, + 200 yuan/ton, + 280 yuan/ton, and + 280 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) were 94,000 yuan/ton and 91,550 yuan/ton respectively, both decreasing by 350 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. Lithium Ore and Related Product Prices - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,162 US dollars/ton, decreasing by 18 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The average prices of different grades of lepidolite decreased, for example, the average price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,590 yuan/ton, decreasing by 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. Downstream Product Prices - The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%/domestic) was 172,000 yuan/ton, increasing by 1,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The average prices of various ternary precursors and materials decreased slightly, for example, the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 104,950 yuan/ton, decreasing by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. New Energy Vehicle Sales Data - From January to October 2025, the global new energy passenger vehicle sales reached 17.36 million units, a year - on - year increase of 30%. In October, the global new energy passenger vehicle sales reached 2.11 million units, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 32% [1]. - From January to October 2025, the new energy vehicle sales in the US were 1.4 million units, with a growth rate of 10%. In October, the new energy vehicle sales in the US were 93,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 51% [1]. Company News - Yihu Co., Ltd. is expected to exceed its annual lithium carbonate production plan of 300 tons [1]. - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. stated that its 40,000 - ton lithium extraction project is running smoothly, with a daily output of 60 - 70 tons, a purity of over 99.9%, and stable equipment operation [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's future interest - rate cut expectations are rising, there are production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines, and the supply - demand outlook for electrolytic copper in non - US regions is tightening, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 86,060, with an increase of 1,770 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 225,331 lots, an increase of 99,349 lots. The open interest was 234,570 lots, an increase of 10,586 lots. The inventory was 32,139 tons, an increase of 3,170 tons [3]. - **London Copper**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 11,434, a decrease of 14.5 compared to the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 50.44, a decrease of 37.94 [3]. - **COMEX Copper**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.362, an increase of 0.12 compared to the previous day. The total inventory was 435,831, an increase of 3,893 [3]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: There are production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight supply - demand outlook for domestic copper concentrates. Scrap copper supply has increased, domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled tape, copper tube, and brass rod have increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod has decreased, and that of recycled copper rod has remained flat. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand purchases [3]. - **Inventory**: China's social inventory of electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, while the LME's electrolytic copper inventory and COMEX copper inventory have increased [3]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Hold previous long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 85,000 and the pressure levels around 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,100 - 10,500 and the pressure level around 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; the support level around 4.8 - 5.0 and the pressure level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [3].

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20251205: Range-bound after Recovery [1] Market Data Summary Shanghai Nickel Futures - On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 117,600 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 103,322 lots, a decrease of 9,126 lots, and the open interest decreased by 577 lots. The inventory was 32,595 tons, a decrease of 2,501 tons [2]. - The price differences between different contracts and the basis between spot and futures also showed certain changes, such as the basis of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price was 2,130 yuan/ton [2]. LME Nickel - The LME 3 - month nickel spot official price was 14,830 US dollars/ton on December 4, 2025. The trading volume was 5,302 lots, a decrease of 3,162 lots. The inventory was 253,116 tons, an increase of 126 tons [2]. Shanghai Stainless Steel Futures - On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 12,260 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 84,742 lots, an increase of 4,381 lots, and the open interest decreased by 871 lots. The inventory was 62,157 tons, a decrease of 180 tons [2]. Core Views Nickel - On December 4, the main nickel contract oscillated within a range. The supply side had stable nickel ore prices, increased nickel ore arrivals at ports last week with inventory depletion at ports. Nickel - iron mills' losses deepened, with domestic and Indonesian production schedules decreasing in December. Electrolytic nickel production schedules increased in December, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel narrowed. The demand side saw a decline in ternary precursor production, a decrease in stainless - steel mill production schedules, and stable alloy and electroplating demand. With inventory increasing in SHFE, LME, and the social sector, and decreasing in the bonded area, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure. Considering the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, after the price recovered from a low level, nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [2]. Stainless Steel - On December 4, the main stainless - steel contract oscillated within a range. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium widened. Inventory in SHFE decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 630,500 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons. In terms of supply, stainless - steel production decreased in December, and the 300 - series production schedule declined. The terminal demand was weak. The high - grade ferronickel price decreased, and the high - carbon ferrochrome price remained stable. With loose fundamentals and weakening cost support, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Investment Strategies Nickel - The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [2]. Stainless Steel - The trading strategy is to short on rallies, with a view score of 0 [2]