表现低迷，若后续央行降息，对于地产需求将有所支撑，否则恐继续拖累玻璃需求，下游深加工订单小幅 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-10-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1223 129 | 13 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 6 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1094 1390463 | 7 -924 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1659798 | -1382 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -242017 | 17359 | | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -206377 | 6247 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 10202 | -566 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 455 | 0 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -55 | 14 | | ...

甲醇产业日报 2025-10-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2261 | -7 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -39 | -19 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 1097780 | 38761 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -163783 | -25094 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 14092 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2250 | -5 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2015 | -10 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 235 | 5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -18 | -7 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 261 | 0 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 325 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 272 | 2 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -15 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High production capacity remains a pressure, combined with the decline in spot prices. In the short - term, the near - month contracts should be treated with the idea of selling short on rallies. The far - month contracts are supported by the logic of production capacity reduction and may perform stronger than the near - month contracts [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 2925 yuan/500 kilograms, down 21 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 33379 lots, down 7158 lots; the monthly spread between contracts 1 - 5 is - 181 yuan/500 kilograms, down 11 yuan; the futures open interest of the active contract is 258830 lots, up 9937 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots, down 15 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The egg spot price is 2.84 yuan/jin, unchanged; the basis (spot - futures) is - 90 yuan/500 kilograms, up 21 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 115.26 (2015 = 100), up 0.86; the national culled laying hen index is 124.63 (2015 = 100), up 31.02; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.6 yuan/chick, unchanged; the national new chick index is 76.65 (2015 = 100), up 3.3; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.75 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan; the laying hen breeding profit is - 0.46 yuan/hen, down 0.06 yuan; the average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 8.64 yuan/kg, down 0.28 yuan; the national culling age of hens is 507 days, down 3 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.72 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.17 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.77 yuan/kg, up 0.27 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.1 days, down 0.24 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.05 days, down 0.45 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13121.03 tons, up 264.92 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7179 tons, down 442 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The average egg price in Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong, and Beijing in the main production areas remains unchanged. The laying hen inventory is still high, old hens are not over - culled, high production capacity is the main concern, post - festival consumption seasonally weakens, terminal digestion is poor, and traders are cautious in purchasing [2] 3.7 Key Points to Watch - No news today [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term L2601 is expected to strengthen with oil prices, with a daily operating range projected to be around 6870 - 7030. The PE production and capacity utilization are expected to rise slightly. The overall inventory pressure is not significant. The cost of oil - made LLDPE decreases with international oil prices, and the oil - made profit recovers; the coal - made cost drops slightly, and the loss deepens. The downstream shed film is in the peak season, while the new orders for the packaging film are limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of polyethylene futures contracts increased, with the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contract closing prices at 6936 yuan/ton, 6978 yuan/ton, and 7009 yuan/ton respectively, up 53 yuan/ton, 61 yuan/ton, and 57 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 234079 lots, down 52219 lots, and the open interest was 549864 lots, down 12101 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 42, down 8. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 77933 lots, up 2926 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6983.48 yuan/ton, down 8.26 yuan/ton, and in East China was 7131.43 yuan/ton, down 13.57 yuan/ton. The basis was 100.48, down 12.26 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 58.33 US dollars/barrel, down 0.99 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 537 US dollars/ton, down 8.5 US dollars. The mid - price of ethylene CFR in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia remained unchanged at 771 US dollars/ton and 781 US dollars/ton respectively [2]. Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate was 81.76%, down 2.19%. From October 10th to 16th, the PE output decreased by 2.05% to 65.06 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.19% to 81.76% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of polyethylene packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film were 52.19% (down 0.7%), 32% (up 0.33%), and 42.89% (up 7.28%) respectively. From October 10th to 16th, the average operating rate of Chinese polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.55%, and the overall operating rate of agricultural film increased by 7.3% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of polyethylene were 8.29% (up 0.78%) and 7.68% (up 0.34%) respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options were 11.27%, down 0.91% [2]. Industry News - As of October 22nd, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene manufacturers was 51.46 tons, down 2.81% from the previous period; as of October 17th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 54.54 tons, down 0.05% from the previous period. From October 11th to 17th, the cost of oil - made LLDPE decreased by 3.34% to 7166 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 140.29 yuan/ton to - 80.71 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - made LLDPE decreased by 0.86% to 6507 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 76.15 yuan/ton to 494.14 yuan/ton [2]. Outlook - Tianjin Petrochemical, Guoneng Ningxia Coal Industry, and Daqing Petrochemical are scheduled for maintenance this week, and the previously short - stopped units will gradually restart. The PE output and capacity utilization are expected to rise slightly. In October, there are few new shutdown units, and new production capacity is about to come on stream, resulting in high supply pressure. The downstream shed film is in the peak season, and the orders and operating rate are rising to the annual high; the new orders for the packaging film are limited, and the units are expected to operate stably. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the possible deterioration of the Venezuelan situation, international oil prices have risen significantly. In the short term, L2601 is expected to strengthen with oil prices, with a daily operating range of around 6870 - 7030 [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the caustic soda industry daily report on October 22, 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2380 yuan/ton, with a 5-yuan increase; the contract closing price of caustic soda for January was 2380 yuan/ton, and for May was 2475 yuan/ton with a 2-yuan increase [2] - The position of the main caustic soda contract was 120124 lots, a decrease of 1434 lots; the trading volume was 252513 lots, an increase of 28850 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 futures traders for caustic soda was -787 lots, a decrease of 1801 lots [2] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 950 yuan/ton, both unchanged [2] - The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2562.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 188 yuan/ton, a 5-yuan increase [2] Upstream - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest China was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 647 yuan/ton, a 3-yuan increase [2] Industry - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 150 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 100 yuan/ton, both unchanged [2] Downstream - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2830 yuan/ton, a 5-yuan decrease [2] Group 3: Industry News - From October 10th to 16th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.4%, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of alumina decreased by 0.10% to 86.22%, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased by 1.02% to 88.61%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.63% to 67.26% [2] - As of October 16th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises was 403,300 tons (wet tons), a 4.25% decrease from the previous week and a 13.83% increase year-on-year [2] - From October 10th to 16th, the average weekly profit of the Shandong chlor-alkali industry was 394 yuan/ton [2] Group 4: Core Views - The SH2601 contract showed a "cross" oscillation and closed at 2380 yuan/ton. Last week, the impact of maintenance devices increased, and the operating rates of caustic soda in North, East, and Northwest China decreased to varying degrees, with the national average operating rate decreasing [2] - The high operating state of downstream alumina continued, and the operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing changed slightly. After the National Day, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories resumed the destocking trend, but the inventory pressure was still high [2] - Affected by the subsidy from liquid chlorine and the relatively strong market price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong, the profit of the Shandong chlor-alkali industry recovered last week. This week, there are both shutdown and restart devices for caustic soda, and the supply is expected to increase [2] - The number of loss-making alumina enterprises increased, but there are currently no large-scale production reduction plans, and the short-term caustic soda demand is not expected to shrink significantly. In the fourth quarter, there are both expectations of new alumina capacity being put into production and cost-driven production reduction of existing devices [2] - If the alumina production reduction is implemented in the future, the impact will be greater than the replenishment demand of new devices. The caustic soda warehouse receipts have declined from a high level, and the pressure has eased. In the short term, SH2601 is expected to oscillate, with a daily range of around 2300 - 2420 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of a continued decrease in urea production is high, with the short - term forecast for the UR2601 contract to fluctuate between 1590 - 1650 yuan/ton. Agricultural urea sales have increased slightly, while compound fertilizer companies are reducing inventory and maintaining low开工率. Domestic urea enterprise inventory has only increased slightly [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1621 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 70 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the main contract position is 312,046 hands, down 121 hands; the net position of the top 20 is - 41,450, down 526; the exchange warehouse receipt is 5,556 sheets, down 501 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Urea prices in Hebei are 1580 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1540 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Jiangsu 1550 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Shandong 1540 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), and Anhui 1560 yuan/ton (unchanged). The main contract basis is - 69 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan. FOB Baltic is 370 dollars/ton (unchanged), and FOB China Main Port is 385 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 44.6 million tons, up 3.1 million tons; enterprise inventory is 161.54 million tons, up 17.15 million tons. The urea enterprise开工率 is 80.64%, down 5.02%; daily production is 188,600 tons, down 11,800 tons. Urea exports are 137 million tons, up 57 million tons; monthly production is 5,738,670 tons, down 190,010 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer开工率 is 24.18%, down 1.32%; the melamine开工率 is 55.18%, down 10.29%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 167 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine (external urea procurement) is 228 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. Monthly compound fertilizer production is 466.18 million tons, down 65.15 million tons; weekly melamine production is 27,400 tons, down 2,600 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 22, enterprise inventory increased by 0.92% week - on - week; as of October 16, port inventory increased by 7.47% week - on - week. As of October 16, production decreased by 5.01% week - on - week, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreased by 4.25% week - on - week [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon industry faces significant supply - side pressure with large overall supply, partial enterprise production cuts falling short of expectations, and an increase in the number of operating enterprises leading to inventory accumulation. The demand side is relatively weak, with poor demand in the downstream photovoltaic industry, lower component tender prices, and postponed centralized projects, resulting in reduced demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers. Although N - type silicon materials maintain a certain premium, the price of ordinary materials is approaching the cost line, and the industry's overall gross profit margin is narrowing. International markets have mixed impacts, with high inventory in Europe suppressing import demand, and although the US tariff policy loosens to drive energy storage system exports, it can't fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, emerging markets like the Middle East and Latin America show a surge in demand, buffering the decline in the demand side. If the supply pressure continues to increase, high inventory will exert significant downward pressure on prices next week. After the monthly meeting, polysilicon remains in a platform shock and is expected to continue. The operation suggestion is to lay out long positions at low prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 50,310 yuan/ton, down 405 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,360 yuan, up 130 yuan; the main position volume of polysilicon is 49,016 lots, down 3,221 lots; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 41,825 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 53,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the basis of polysilicon is 2,285 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.53 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 36 yuan/kg; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,485 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 69,857,000 kilowatts, up 3,475,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,290 units, down 19,491,370 units; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,733,770 units, down 6,706,520 units; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/unit, up 0.06 US dollars; the weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged [3] 3.6 Industry News - GCL Technology announced a voluntary notice, disclosing that its photovoltaic materials business achieved a turnaround in the third quarter of 2025, recording a profit of about 960 million yuan, compared with a loss of 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year. The profit included a post - tax gain of about 640 million yuan from the sale of an associated company. Excluding this non - recurring gain, the photovoltaic materials business still achieved an operating profit [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a state of high production and weak demand, with an expected increase in inventory in the future. The fundamentals are difficult to improve, but the valuation is at a relatively low level, and there may be positive macro - level news, so it is expected to show a short - term oscillatory trend. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around the previous low of 4644 and the pressure around the 20 - day moving average of 4812 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of PVC is 4719 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the trading volume is 535,541 lots, down 14,834 lots; the open interest is 1,194,995 lots, up 3,089 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 131,012 lots, up 1,096 lots [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price of ethylene - based PVC in East China is 4850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4613.08 yuan/ton, down 6.15 yuan. The price of ethylene - based PVC in South China is 4820 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4708.75 yuan/ton, up 1.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 690 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 710 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 99 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2690 yuan/ton, up 16.67 yuan; in Northwest China is 2530 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 49.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 549 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 183 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars; in Southeast Asia is 192 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.69%, down 5.94 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 74.71%, down 8.23 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.26%, down 0.64 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 55.62 tons, down 0.08 tons; in East China is 50.48 tons, up 0.21 tons; in South China is 5.14 tons, down 0.29 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The national real estate climate index is 92.78, down 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 45,399 million square meters, up 5,597.99 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6,485,800,000 square meters, up 5,471.06 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 316.9394 billion yuan, up 35.8801 billion yuan [3]. - **Option Market**: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 9.74%, down 0.41 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.52%, down 0.15 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options is 15.05%, with the put option up 0.01 percentage points and the call option unchanged [3]. b. Industry News - From October 11th to 17th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 76.69%, a significant decline compared to the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 9.38% to 48.59%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 7.17% to 40% and the profile operating rate increasing by 17.39% to 33.26% [3]. - As of October 16th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.24% to 1.0338 million tons compared to the previous week. The average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to 5142 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5432 yuan/ton. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 731 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 552 yuan/ton [3]. c. Outlook - This week, many PVC plants are expected to restart, and the impact of newly shut - down plants is limited, so the capacity utilization rate of PVC is expected to return to a high level. In October, there are few maintenance plants and new production capacity is increasing, resulting in relatively high supply pressure [3]. - The real estate market remains weak, and downstream orders are poor. Downstream is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. Affected by India's anti - dumping tax, the export market may remain on the sidelines. Due to the high - production and weak - demand situation of PVC, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [3]. - The calcium carbide - based process is deeply in the red, and chlor - alkali enterprises use caustic soda profits to offset chlorine losses. However, the supply of calcium carbide is abundant and the price is weak, so the cost - side support is limited [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - On October 22, the lead price fluctuated at a high level, and the recycled lead price was mainly stable. The supply side has limited short - term increase in primary lead production due to refinery maintenance, and the recycled lead supply is expected to increase. The demand side has a strong wait - and - see attitude among downstream enterprises, and the overall demand is in a slow recovery stage. Considering the inventory situation and the upcoming super central bank week, the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to remain high next week [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 17,160 yuan/ton, with a flat change; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,993 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar. The 11 - 12 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 15 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest was 88,572 lots, an increase of 1,744 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 2,728 lots, an increase of 870 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 24,977 tons, a decrease of 3,156 tons. The SHFE inventory was 41,701 tons, an increase of 1,785 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 247,300 tons, unchanged [3]. 现货 Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 17,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the lead main contract was - 160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 39.69 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.09 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The average开工 rate of primary lead was 81.64%, down 1.92 percentage points, and the weekly output was 3.91 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,396 yuan, down 75 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points, and the monthly output was 22.42 tons, a decrease of 6.75 tons. The global lead mine production was 379.9 thousand tons, a decrease of 16 thousand tons, and the lead ore import volume was 13.48 tons, an increase of 1.27 tons [3]. 产业 Situation - The refined lead import volume was 1,820.55 tons, a decrease of 1,596.29 tons, and the export volume was 2,752.22 tons, an increase of 957.7 tons. The domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 380 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries was 9,991.07 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 49,680 thousand pieces, an increase of 1,925 thousand pieces. The average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries was 19,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells was 2,002.86 points, an increase of 22.32 points. The monthly automobile production was 322.7 tons, an increase of 47.46 tons, and the new energy vehicle production was 133.3 tons, an increase of 15.7 tons [3]. Industry News - On October 22, the lead price fluctuated at a high level, and the recycled lead price was mainly stable. The price of reduced lead was reported at 15,800 - 15,900 yuan/ton, and the price of recycled refined lead was reported at 15,800 - 15,850 yuan/ton ex - factory [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restrictions increase the cost of nickel resource supply, the growth of Indonesian ferronickel production slows down, and domestic production gradually declines. Recently, the price of ferronickel has rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs. On the supply side, although the production profit of steel mills has shrunk, with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season and the gradual increase in infrastructure and real - estate demand, the production schedule of stainless - steel mills still increases. On the demand side, infrastructure construction in October is expected to speed up, combined with the favorable fiscal investment policies in China, and anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. Market procurement demand is resilient, and domestic inventories continue to decline. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or hold previous long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,710 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45; the price difference between the October - November contracts is 495 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 110. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 10,699 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 630; the position volume of the main contract is 179,530 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 8,802. The warehouse receipt quantity is 74,376 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 121 [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of 304 scrap stainless steel in Wuxi is 9,250 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the SS main contract is 505 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 70 [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 21,700 metal tons, with a decrease of 300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, with an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, with an increase of 211,200 tons. The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,100 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 400 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 935 yuan/nickel point, with a decrease of 5 yuan/nickel point. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, with an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 583,600 tons, with an increase of 200 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, with an increase of 55.9799 million square meters. The monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 267,000 units; the monthly production of excavators is 6,900 units, with an increase of 2,900 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 9,000 units, with a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The US President Trump said he would visit China early next year, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded that there was no information to provide for the time being. The Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao had video talks with EU officials on issues such as export control and the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles, and also talked with the Dutch economic minister about issues such as Nexperia. A Reuters survey shows that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain [2].