1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rebounded steadily. The market's dovish bets on the interest - rate cut path increased, the US dollar was weak, and non - ferrous metals such as copper and tin strengthened, driving up the lead price. The supply - demand tension of lead ore is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the cost side supports the lead price. Although the production of some refineries recovered in November, there were more refinery overhauls in December, and the production of primary and recycled lead is expected to decline month - on - month. The terminal consumption is divided, with the consumption of electric bicycle batteries weakening, but the consumption of automobile starting batteries improving, and large - and medium - sized battery enterprises starting year - end stockpiling. Overall, the macro - environment is warm, the fundamentals are marginally improved, and social inventories have dropped to a new low for the year, supporting the lead price. It is expected that the lead price will remain oscillating strongly in the short term, but the rebound space is restricted by the import expectation of lead ingots, and attention should be paid to the resistance around 17,500 yuan/ton [3][6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 11/28 | 12/5 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 17,090 | 17,290 | 200 | yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 1,981 | 2,009 | 28 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.63 | 8.61 | - 0.02 | | | SHFE Inventory | 37,799 | 34,735 | - 3,064 | tons | | LME Inventory | 263,175 | 243,550 | - 19,625 | tons | | Social Inventory | 3.07 | 2.36 | - 0.71 | 10,000 tons | | Spot Premium | - 65 | - 65 | 0 | yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main Shanghai lead PB2601 contract rebounded steadily, breaking through the moving - average pressure and finally closing at 17,290 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.17%. The LME lead price also rebounded slightly, closing at 2,009 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.41%. In the spot market, the supply of lead in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai markets was limited, and most of the lead ingots were from refineries. The supply of lead in the East China region was tight, and the mainstream origin quoted a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price. The recycled lead refineries were more willing to sell, and the downstream enterprises mainly purchased through long - term contracts [5]. - As of December 5, the LME weekly inventory was 243,550 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,625 tons. The SHFE inventory was 34,735 tons, a decrease of 3,064 tons from the previous week. As of December 4, the SMM five - region social inventory was 23,600 tons, a decrease of 7,100 tons from Monday and 11,400 tons from Thursday of the previous week. As the delivery of the current - month contract approaches, some goods holders may transfer their inventory for delivery, and the social inventory is expected to stabilize [6]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week of December 5, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, with the average values remaining flat month - on - month [8]. - In November, the electrolytic lead production was 327,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. It is expected to slightly decrease to 323,400 tons in December. The recycled refined lead production in November was 296,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.5% and a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. It is expected to slightly decrease to 290,300 tons in December [8]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, the price difference between primary and recycled lead, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [9][11][13][15].

锌周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 宏观推波，供应助力 锌价强劲反弹 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价反弹。宏观面，近期公布的美国就业及通 胀数据均支持美联储降息，且特朗普发表下任美联储主席人 选的言论，也利好未来降息路径，美元弱势运行，利好风险 资产价格走势。国内临近中央政治局会议，政策预期回升， 市场情绪偏好，铜锡价格不断刷新高点，锌价跟随反弹。基 本面看，供应端供应端收缩态势突出，12 月国内外锌矿加 工费加速下行，其中国产矿加工费均值回落至 2000 元/金属 吨，基本回归年初水平，炼厂利润空间持续压缩，行业减停 产现象增多。SMM 数据显示，11 月国内精炼锌产量不及预期， 回落至 60 万吨下方，预计 12 月产量环比减少 2.4 万吨， 前期高供应压力得到明显缓解。同时，国内外现货升水均走 强，也助力期价偏强运行。不过，消费端仍处于传统淡季， 需求侧未能形成有效配合，初端企业开工率维持不 ...

李婷 2025 年 12 月 8 日 关注马棕油累库情况 棕榈油区间震荡 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 棕榈油周报 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨38收于4152林吉特/吨，涨幅 0.92%；棕榈油01合约涨144收于8770元/吨，涨幅 1.67%；豆油01合约涨22收于8266元/吨，涨幅0.27%； 菜油01合约跌139收于9618元/吨，跌幅1.42%；CBOT豆 油主连跌0.38收于51.7美分/磅，跌幅0.73%；ICE油菜 籽活跃合约跌33.5收于618.2加元/吨，跌幅5.14%。 ⚫ 随着东南亚洪灾题材降温，盘面上涨动能减弱；但 ...

豆粕周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 等待 USDA 报告指引 连粕延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 豆粕周报 一、市场数据 | 合约 | 12 月 5 日 | 11 月 28 日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT 大豆 | 1105.25 | 1137.25 | -32.00 | -2.81% | 美分/蒲式耳 | | CNF 进口价：巴西 | 481.00 | 500.00 | -19.00 | -3.80% | 美元/吨 | | ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, industrial silicon prices fluctuated downward. The main reasons were that the polysilicon production in November fell short of expectations, and the slowdown in photovoltaic installation at the end of the year led to a significant decline in silicon wafer production scheduling, dragging down the demand for upstream silicon materials. The overall sentiment in the industrial products market cooled. From the supply side, the operating rate in Xinjiang remained around 85%, the output in the southwest region decreased significantly during the dry season, and there was little expectation of increased production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia, resulting in a slight contraction in supply. From the demand side, the market - supporting effect of leading polysilicon enterprises was poor, the futures price dropped significantly last week, and the production scheduling in December was expected to continue to decline. The price of silicon wafers fell continuously last week, and battery enterprises effectively managed their safety inventory, forcing silicon enterprises to cut prices and dump products. The production scheduling of silicon wafers in December decreased by more than 15%. The decline of battery cells slowed down last week, and leading integrated enterprises increased production cuts in December, with market decisions being divided and the demand side tightening faster. The finished - product inventory of component enterprises was relatively stable, but the actual demand for concentrated installation decreased at the end of the year, and the number of provincial and municipal photovoltaic projects won by domestic enterprises decreased. The total procurement capacity won last week was 1232.8MW, a week - on - week decrease of 345.7MW. The social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 558,000 tons last week, and the spot market of industrial silicon shifted downward due to the decline in futures prices [2][5][9]. - Overall, the official manufacturing PMI in November was still in the contraction range, the polysilicon production fell short of expectations, and the production scheduling of the photovoltaic mid - and downstream in December decreased significantly. The overall sentiment in the industrial products market cooled. Technically, the main contract fell below the 9000 level and continued to decline weakly. It is expected that the futures price of industrial silicon will enter a weak and volatile state [2][9]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The price of the industrial silicon main contract on December 5 was 8805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 325 yuan/ton or 3.56% from November 28. The price of oxygen - passing 553 spot was 9450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 1.05%. The price of non - oxygen - passing 553 spot remained unchanged at 9350 yuan/ton. The price of 421 spot remained unchanged at 9800 yuan/ton. The price of 3303 spot remained unchanged at 10450 yuan/ton. The price of organic silicon DMC spot was 13600 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton or 3.03%. The price of polysilicon dense material spot remained unchanged at 52 yuan/ton. The social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 558,000 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons or 1.45% [3]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: China's official manufacturing PMI in November rose to 49.2, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The production index was 50, indicating that manufacturing production was generally stable. The new order index was 49.2, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%, indicating that the market demand in the manufacturing industry was generally stable. The raw material inventory index was 47.3, remaining unchanged month - on - month, indicating a continuous decrease in the inventory of major raw materials. The employment index was 48.4, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%, indicating a slight improvement in the employment sentiment of manufacturing enterprises. The supplier delivery index was 50.1, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%, indicating a slight acceleration in the supplier delivery time [6]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: As of December 28, the weekly output of industrial silicon decreased to 81,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.7% and a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The number of open furnaces in the three major industrial silicon production areas dropped significantly to 238, and the overall furnace - opening rate dropped to 29.9%. Among them, the number of open furnaces in Xinjiang decreased to 140, remaining unchanged week - on - week; in Yunnan, it decreased by 5 to 14; in Sichuan and Chongqing, it decreased by 13 to 8; in Inner Mongolia, it decreased by 1 to 32. The demand side showed that the market - supporting effect of leading polysilicon enterprises was poor, the futures price dropped significantly last week, and the production scheduling in December was expected to continue to decline. The price of silicon wafers fell continuously last week, and the production scheduling of silicon wafers in December decreased by more than 15%. The decline of battery cells slowed down last week, and leading integrated enterprises increased production cuts in December. The finished - product inventory of component enterprises was relatively stable, but the actual demand for concentrated installation decreased at the end of the year, and the number of provincial and municipal photovoltaic projects won by domestic enterprises decreased [5][7][9]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of December 5, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 558,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8000 tons. The terminal consumption slowed down, and the registered warehouse receipt volume of the exchange continued to increase. As of December 5, the warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose to 7288 lots, totaling 36,400 tons. It is expected that the warehouse receipt inventory will continue to increase under the background of weakening marginal demand at the end of the year [8]. Industry News - On December 5, Daquan Energy held a performance briefing for the third quarter. The company's directors, board secretary Sun Yicheng, and CFO and deputy general manager Shi Wei attended the meeting and responded to core issues such as the trend of silicon material prices, the impact of industry policies, the company's operating performance, and technological layout. The company's N - type dense material in polysilicon products accounted for more than 70%, and there was no specific construction plan for granular silicon technology at present [10]. - The EU is considering setting a "Made in Europe" target of up to 70% for specific goods including automobiles. The policy may force EU enterprises to purchase more expensive European components, bringing them an additional cost of more than 10 billion euros per year. The proposal is expected to be submitted on December 10. Germany and other countries have indicated that they will support the "Buy European" rule, which may affect the automotive industry and clean - technology fields such as solar panels [11]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including industrial silicon production, export volume, social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, main production area weekly output, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and various spot prices [13][14][16][17][18].

氧化铝周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 减产迟迟未能兑现 氧化铝空头氛围浓 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端，近期国内外矿端保持平静，国内矿石维持偏 紧价格持稳。进口矿近期成交活跃度不高，主要以 几内亚、澳大利亚长单执行为主，氧化铝利润不断 压缩对铝土矿采购态度谨慎。供应端上周有山西 地区氧化铝企业减产，预计持续20天，日度影响产 量2000吨。进口窗口保持开启，进口氧化铝后续仍 有流入预期。消费端上周氧化铝价再度加速下跌， 电解铝企业采购意愿稍有抬升，但大多压价成交， 周末现货价格出现较大跌幅。仓单库存25.3万吨 周内减 ...

焦煤焦炭周报 基本面供强需弱 双焦偏弱走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 投资咨询号：Z0011692 2025 年 12 月 8 日 ⚫ 下游：钢厂铁水产量下跌，终端需求继续放缓。钢厂的 焦炭生产维持，日均焦炭产量小幅增加，库存减少。 ⚫ 中游：焦化企业连续三周盈利，主因焦煤价格走弱，生 产加速，焦炭产量明显增加，但出货困难，库存增加。 全国平均吨焦盈利30（环比-17）元/吨。 ⚫ 上游：矿山生产平稳，供应压力增大，焦煤库存大幅增 加。523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为85.6%，环 比-0.4%。原煤日均产量190.4万吨，环比-0.9万吨，原 煤库存471.6 ...

铁矿周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 港库持续增加 铁矿震荡承压 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/11 ⚫ 需求端：多地启动五日应急响应，钢厂检修规模扩 大，铁水产量环比回落。上周247家钢厂高炉开工率 80.16%，环比上周减少0.93个百分点，同比去年减少 1.31个百分点，日均铁水产量 232.3万吨，环比上周 减少2.38万吨，同比去年减少0.31万吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外铁矿到港量减少，但发运增加，港 口库存处于高位，供应压力不减。上周全球铁矿石发 运总3323.2万吨，环比增加44.7万吨。库存方面，全 国47个港口进口铁矿库存1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas employment data is mixed, with the yen rising due to expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, and the market focusing on subsequent rate - hike magnitudes; in the domestic market, A - shares are in a weak shock, and the bond market is accelerating its decline [2][3]. - Silver prices are in a high - level correction and are expected to continue to adjust in the short term; copper prices remain strong; aluminum shows a bullish trend; alumina is still searching for a bottom; casting aluminum has a good fundamental outlook; zinc prices are oscillating strongly; lead prices are oscillating strongly; tin prices are consolidating at a high level; industrial silicon prices are oscillating narrowly; steel prices are oscillating; iron ore prices are under pressure; double - coke prices are oscillating weakly; bean and rapeseed meal prices are oscillating; palm oil prices are oscillating within a range [4][6][8][11][12][15][24] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: US November Challenger layoffs were 71,000, with the year - on - year growth rate slowing to 24%, but the scale was the highest for the same period since 2022. The latest initial jobless claims dropped to 191,000, the lowest since September 2022. The yen rose due to expectations that the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates in December, and long - term bond yields soared to multi - decade highs. The US dollar index rebounded to 99, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.10%, the US stock market was flat, oil prices rose by more than 1%, and gold and copper prices slightly declined [2]. - Domestic: A - shares on Thursday had a shrinking - volume shock and significant structural differentiation, with the ChiNext and STAR Market performing better, and the micro - cap and dividend styles falling significantly. More than 3,800 stocks in the two markets closed down, and the trading volume dropped to 1.56 trillion yuan, the lowest since August. The bond market accelerated its correction, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) hit a new low this year. The 10Y and 30Y yields rose to 1.85% and 2.25% respectively [3]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose slightly, while silver futures fell 1.86% to $57.53 per ounce, and platinum and palladium futures also declined. Silver prices corrected due to investors taking profits, but gold prices were still supported by safe - haven demand. The latest US employment data did not affect the expectation of an interest - rate cut this month. It is expected that silver prices will continue to adjust in the short term [4][5]. Copper - On Thursday, the main Shanghai copper contract oscillated around 91,000 yuan, and LME copper oscillated around $11,500. The domestic near - month C structure narrowed. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper was weak. LME inventory remained at 163,000 tons, while COMEX inventory increased to 436,000 tons. Glencore plans to restart its Alumbrera copper mine in Argentina by the end of next year and lowered its 2026 copper production guidance from 930,000 tons to 810,000 - 870,000 tons. It is expected that copper prices will remain strong in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, the main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 22,115 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. LME aluminum closed at $2,887.5/ton, down 0.33%. The end - of - year energy - storage consumption expectation is rising, and the aluminum ingot social inventory has not entered the accumulation cycle during the traditional consumption off - season. The long - position sentiment in the market continues, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a bullish trend [8][9]. Alumina - On Thursday, the main alumina futures contract closed at 2,615 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The national average spot price of alumina was 2,851 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. At the end of the year when long - term contracts are negotiated, the willingness to cut production is still weak. There have been extremely low spot transaction prices in recent days, and alumina is expected to continue to search for a bottom [10]. Casting Aluminum - On Thursday, the main casting aluminum alloy futures contract closed at 21,070 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The shortage pattern of scrap aluminum in the raw material end is difficult to change, and the cost support is rising. The end - of - year rush - volume demand still supports the industry's resilience. Overall, the fundamentals of casting aluminum are healthy, and the price outlook is positive [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, the main Shanghai zinc 2601 contract rose after an intraday high and then fell back, and oscillated strongly at night. LME zinc closed up. The market supply of zinc is still tight, and the premium is strengthening. The overall situation is that both macro and micro factors are favorable in the short term, supporting zinc prices to oscillate strongly, but the negative feedback of high prices is emerging in the consumption off - season, and it is expected that the contract price will fluctuate around the integer level [12]. Lead - On Thursday, the main Shanghai lead 2601 contract oscillated strongly during the day, and the center of gravity continued to rise at night. LME lead closed up. The social inventory decreased by 7,100 tons compared with Monday. It is expected that lead prices will oscillate strongly in the short term [13][14]. Tin - On Thursday, the main Shanghai tin 2601 contract rose after an intraday high and then fell back, and oscillated narrowly at night. LME tin moved sideways. It is expected that tin prices will mainly consolidate at a high level in the short term [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. From the supply side, the supply is converging; from the demand side, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent recently. It is expected that the contract price will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [16][17]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated. The supply and demand of steel are both weak, and the supply and demand of rebar have improved, while the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have not changed much. Overall, the supply - demand drive is not strong, and it is expected that steel prices will oscillate [18][19]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated. The supply of iron ore is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the contract price will oscillate under pressure [20]. Double - Coke (Coking Coal and Coke) - On Thursday, double - coke futures oscillated. The supply of coking coal and coke is strong, and the demand is weak. The expectation of a coke price cut is strong. It is expected that the contract price will oscillate weakly [21]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean meal 01 contract rose 0.03%, and the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose 0.62%. Brazil's precipitation conditions are good, while Argentina's precipitation is lower than normal. It is expected that the Dalian Commodity Exchange bean meal will oscillate in the short term [22][23]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil 01 contract fell 0.80%. Indian refineries cancelled 70,000 tons of soybean oil orders for the December - January shipment period. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate within a range in the short term [24].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251204 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美国 ADP 就业走弱，国内股债双弱 海外方面，美国服务业支撑的基本面韧性与就业边际疲软并存，11 月 ADP 就业减少 3.2 万，为 2023 年 3 月来最大降幅，压力集中于小企业，大企业则净增 9 万，就业分化显著。 11 月 ISM 服务业升至 52.6，创九个月新高，价格降至七个月低点、就业升至六个月高点， 显示服务需求韧性、通胀缓和、就业收缩放缓。美元指数回落至 98.9，10Y 美债利率回落至 4.07%，美股收涨，铜价再创历史新高，受美元走弱、供应扰动加剧及 LME 注册仓库库存持 续紧张共同推升，金、油小幅收涨。今日关注美国初申失业金人数。 国内方面，中国 11 月 RatingDog 服务业 PMI 降至 52.1，扩张小幅放缓，其中新出口订 单明显回升，受企业加大营销和中美贸易不确定性阶段性缓解带动，外需景气度改善。A 股 周三缩量调整，两市超 3800 只个股收跌、成交额回落至 1.68 万亿，双创板块领跌，目前经 济基 ...