重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 2025 年 6 月 27 日星期五 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 日 水 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | | 4 | | 股指: | | 4 | | 贵金属: | | ת > | | 螺纹、热卷: | | 6 | | 铁矿石: | | 6 | | 焦煤 焦炭 : . | | 7 | | 铁合金: | | 7 | | 原油: | | 8 | | 燃料油: | | C | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | .. | | | PVC: | .. | | | 尿素: | | 11 | | 对二甲苯 PX: | .. 11 | | | PTA: . | | | | 乙二醇: 12 | | | | 短纤: | . | | | 瓶片: | .. | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 纸浆: | .. | | | 碳酸锂: | .. | ...

2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 日 水 | | --- | | 国债: 4 | | C 股指: . | | 贵金属: רז ז | | 螺纹、热卷: 6 | | 铁矿石: 6 | | 焦煤 焦炭： . 1 | | 铁合金: 1 | | 原油: 8 | | 燃料油: C | | 合成橡胶: C | | 天然橡胶: C | | PVC: : : : : : : : : : : : : : | | 尿素: . 11 | | .. 11 对二甲苯 PX: | | PTA: . | | 乙二醇: . | | 短纤: .. | | 瓶片: .. | | 纯碱: .. | | 玻璃: 14 | | 烧碱: .. | | 纸浆: .. | | 碳酸锂: .. | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | ...

2025 年 6 月 25 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | 日 水 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | | 4 | | 股指: | | 4 | | 贵金属: | . | C ST | | 螺纹、热卷: | | C ST | | 铁矿石: | | ( | | | 焦煤焦炭: | | | 铁合金: | | ا ے | | 原油: | | 8 | | 燃料油: | .. | | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | | C | | PVC: | .. | | | 尿素: | .. | 10 | | 对二甲苯 PX: | ... 11 | | | PTA: | .. | | | 乙二醇: | .. | | | 短纤: | .. | | | 瓶片: | .. | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 纸浆: | .. | | | 碳酸锂· ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It provides short - and long - term outlooks and trading strategies for each market, considering factors such as economic data, geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and cost - price relationships [5][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.04%, 0.01%, and 0.01% respectively, while the 5 - year main contract remained flat [5]. - **Economic Data**: The central bank conducted 220.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 23, with an operating rate of 1.40%. Meanwhile, 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits matured on the same day [5]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: With stable macro - data but weak economic recovery momentum, it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Given the relatively low Treasury bond yields, the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, and the uncertainty of the Sino - US trade agreement, it is advisable to be cautious as there is unlikely to be a trending market [5][6]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) rose by 0.68%, 0.74%, 0.64%, and 1.01% respectively [7]. - **Economic Data**: As of the end of May, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, solar and wind power generation capacity increased by 56.9% and 23.1% respectively. From January to May, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 132 hours compared to the previous year, while power grid investment increased by 19.8% year - on - year [7][8]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, and there is a lack of confidence in corporate profits. However, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 781.3, up 0.35%, and the night - session closing price was 786.1. The silver main contract closed at 8,770, up 1.22%, with a night - session closing price of 8809 [10]. - **Economic Data**: The preliminary values of the Eurozone's manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs in June were 49.4, 50.0, and 50.2 respectively [10]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the uncertainty of tariffs, and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Commodities Steel - related - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak fluctuations. The supply - demand relationship in the real estate industry and the entry into the off - season are suppressing prices. However, due to the low valuation, the downside space may be limited. Investors can consider shorting on rebounds and participate with a light position [12][13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures showed weak fluctuations. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and its valuation is relatively high among black - series varieties. Investors can consider buying at low levels and exit on rebounds, with a stop - loss if the previous low is broken. A light - position participation is recommended [15][16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures showed mixed performance. The market is in a state of oversupply. In the short term, the decline may stop, but the medium - term weakness remains. Investors can consider shorting on rebounds and participate with a light position [17][18][19]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon declined. The supply is still high while the demand is weak. In the short term, the oversupply situation may continue, and the price is under pressure. Investors can consider low - value call options if the spot losses increase significantly [20][21]. Energy - related - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. The market sentiment has eased after the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. The US has increased its net long positions in crude oil futures and options. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see [22][23][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, rising and then falling, with a relatively strong trend. The reduction of Singapore's fuel oil inventory and the uncertainty of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are positive factors. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see [25][26][27]. Rubber - related - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber declined. The supply pressure has slightly eased, and the cost is expected to rebound, which may drive the market to stabilize and rebound. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [28][29]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber remained flat, while the 20 - grade rubber main contract declined. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is relatively stable. The market may continue to fluctuate widely. It is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to go long after the market stabilizes [30][32]. Chemical - related - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC declined. The production is expected to decrease, the demand shows no sign of improvement, and the cost support is strengthening. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The market is in a bottom - oscillating state [33][35]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea declined. The large - scale agricultural seasonal demand is basically over, and the industrial demand is weak. However, considering the inventory reduction, it is advisable to take a bullish view [36][37]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX fluctuated and adjusted. The supply - demand may weaken, but the cost is expected to drive the price. It is advisable to operate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to the changes in crude oil prices and the Middle - East situation [38]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. The supply - demand situation has improved, and the cost is strong. It is advisable to participate at low levels and pay attention to the Middle - East situation [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol declined. The supply - demand has weakened, and the inventory has slightly increased. The geopolitical situation may reduce supply, but the upside space is limited. It is advisable to take a cautiously bullish view and pay attention to inventory and import changes [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost is supportive, and the supply has decreased. It is advisable to go long at low levels and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. The raw material cost is strong, and the supply will decrease due to equipment maintenance. The demand is improving. It is advisable to participate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin [42]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash declined. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is rising. The long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is not advisable to chase the short - term rebound blindly [43][44]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass rose slightly. The actual supply - demand has no obvious driver, and the market lacks positive support. It is not advisable to chase the short - term rebound blindly, and short - position holders should control their positions [45]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda rose. The production is expected to increase slightly, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. There are regional differences, and long - position holders should control their positions [46][47]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp rose. The downstream demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak, although the domestic mechanical pulp market has a slight upward trend [48]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate declined. The supply remains high, and the demand has slowed down. The oversupply situation has not changed significantly, and the price is difficult to reverse [49]. Agricultural - related - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper showed a weak downward trend. The overseas macro - environment suppresses the price, but the raw material supply and low global inventory provide support. It is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to go long [50][51]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the consumption data is good. The price is expected to fluctuate [52]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The cost support has weakened, and the demand is in the off - season. The market is in an oversupply state, and the price is expected to fluctuate [53]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil declined. The good weather in the US Midwest is beneficial to soybean growth. The inventory of both is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see for soybean meal and consider exiting long positions on rallies for soybean oil [54][56]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil closed up. The domestic inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to consider opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [57][58]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed futures declined. The domestic inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a high level. It is advisable to consider opportunities to go long on the ratio of oil to meal [59][60]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the domestic industry is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see [61][62][63]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production is increasing, and the domestic inventory is low. It is advisable to go long in batches [64][66][67]. - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures declined. The new - year production is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [68][69]. - **Pig**: On the previous trading day, the national average price of pigs rose. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to pay attention to the weight - reduction of large - scale farms and consider positive arbitrage opportunities in peak - season contracts [70][72]. - **Egg**: On the previous trading day, the average price of eggs remained flat. The supply is increasing, and it is in the consumption off - season. It is advisable to try shorting on rebounds [73][75][76]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of corn rose slightly, while the main contract of corn starch declined. The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, and the policy is favorable. It is advisable to wait and see for corn starch, which follows the corn market [76][77][78]. - **Log**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of log rose. The market has no obvious driver, and the spot price is weak. The housing transaction has slightly improved, and it is necessary to be vigilant against bullish sentiment disturbances in the 07 contract [79][80][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For most products, the report analyzes the market conditions from aspects such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors, and then gives corresponding investment suggestions, including bullish, bearish, and neutral views [5][7][10] - Overall, the market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic conditions, geopolitical conflicts, and seasonal factors, and different products show different trends and investment opportunities [5][7][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income Products 3.1.1 Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 161.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 20, with a net withdrawal of 4.13 billion yuan on that day. The June LPR quote remained stable [5] - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to remain cautious as there is uncertainty in the Sino - US trade agreement. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market [5][6] 3.1.2 Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 4.2% year - on - year. The stamp duty revenue increased by 18.8% year - on - year, and the securities trading stamp duty revenue increased by 52.4% year - on - year. In May, the total social power consumption increased by 4.4% year - on - year [7] - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong, and the market lacks confidence in corporate profits. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and considers going long on stock index futures [8][9] 3.2 Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold and silver futures prices fell. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold [10] - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is considered to go long on gold futures [10][11] 3.3 Base Metals and Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper showed a weak trend. Geopolitical risks and the rebound of the US dollar index put pressure on copper prices. However, the increase in US refined copper inventory and the uncertainty of copper tariffs provide a basis for copper price increases [51] - It is recommended to focus on going long opportunities for the Shanghai copper main contract [52] 3.3.2 Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the domestic processing fee is low, and the smelter's raw material inventory is further tightened. The export of refined tin from Indonesia has returned to normal, and the downstream production schedule data is good, and both domestic and overseas inventories are showing a de - stocking trend [53] - It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate [53] 3.3.3 Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The cost support has weakened, and the downstream nickel - iron plants are suffering greater losses. The stainless - steel consumption is pessimistic, which may drag down the ore price. On the other hand, the MHP price has strengthened, and the cost of nickel sulfate has certain support, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is not high [54] - It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate [54] 3.3.4 Iron Ore - The previous trading day, the iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The iron - water daily output has declined, and the support for the iron ore price from strong demand has weakened. The supply has increased, and the port inventory is relatively stable. The iron ore price valuation is the highest among black - series products [15] - Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities, stop profit in time when the price rebounds, and stop loss if it falls below the previous low [15] 3.3.5 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed a weak and volatile trend. The real - estate industry is in a downward trend, and the demand for rebar is declining, and there is over - capacity, which suppresses the price. The market has entered the off - season, and the price support from peak - season demand has weakened [12] - The steel price valuation is at a low level, and the downward space may not be large. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [12][13] 3.3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose slightly. The coking coal and coke market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The supply of coking coal has decreased, and the market trading atmosphere is sluggish. The steel - mill's iron - water output has declined, and the coking enterprises' production has decreased [17] - The short - term decline of coking coal and coke futures is expected to stop, but the medium - term weakness has not reversed. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17][18] 3.3.7 Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose. The manganese - ore shipment volume from Gabon has increased significantly, and the port manganese - ore inventory has increased slightly. The iron - alloy production has increased at a low level, and the demand is weak, and the supply is still high [20] - After entering the off - season, the short - term demand for iron alloys has peaked, and the price is under pressure. If the spot loss intensifies significantly, investors can consider low - level out - of - the - money call options [20][21] 3.4 Energy Products 3.4.1 Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose first and then fell. Geopolitical risks continue to ferment. The fund manager increased the net long position of US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs has decreased for eight consecutive weeks. The US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities has intensified the Middle East conflict [22][23] - Oil prices are expected to rise in the short term. It is recommended to focus on going long opportunities for the crude oil main contract [23][24] 3.4.2 Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and rose first and then fell, showing a strong trend. The conflict between Israel and Iran has increased geopolitical risks, which has pushed up crude oil prices and driven up fuel - oil prices. If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it will be slightly negative for fuel - oil prices [25][26] - It is recommended to focus on going long opportunities for the fuel - oil main contract [27] 3.5 Chemical Products 3.5.1 Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic - rubber main contract fell. The supply pressure has been slightly relieved, and the demand improvement is limited. The cost is expected to rebound, which will drive the market to stabilize and rebound. The raw - material price is volatile, the production capacity utilization rate has declined, the tire - enterprise inventory is high, and the export order is restricted by tariffs [28] - Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29] 3.5.2 Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural - rubber main contract fell. The market is worried about the future, and the domestic inventory has increased against the season, which has led to a sharp decline in the market. The supply is affected by rain, and the demand is expected to decline slightly. The social inventory is at a relatively high level [30] - Wait for the market to stabilize and then focus on going long opportunities [32] 3.5.3 PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose slightly. The supply - demand drive of PVC itself is not strong, and it is in the traditional off - season from June to July. The production is expected to return after the maintenance weakens, and the rebound space is limited. The supply capacity utilization rate has increased, the demand is weak, and the cost has decreased [33] - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [35] 3.5.4 Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. Affected by the phased release of agricultural demand and the tightening of overseas supply, urea has stabilized and rebounded. The domestic urea daily output is expected to remain at around 200,000 tons. The agricultural demand is in a short - term gap, and the industrial demand is weakening [36] - Be bullish on urea in the short term [37] 3.5.5 PX - The previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The PXN spread has been adjusted, and the PX - MX spread has increased. The PX load has decreased slightly, and there have been many changes in overseas devices. The import volume has increased. The cost is affected by the conflict between Israel and Iran, and the international crude - oil price has continued to rise [38] - In the short term, the PX price is dominated by the cost, but the supply - demand expectation may weaken, and the upward increase may be limited. Consider cautious operation on dips [38] 3.5.6 PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. The PTA load has decreased, the polyester load has increased, and the downstream is digesting inventory. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil and PX [39] - In the short term, the PTA supply - demand situation has improved, and the cost is bullish. Consider going long on dips [39] 3.5.7 Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene - glycol main contract rose slightly. The overall ethylene - glycol operating load has increased, and some Iranian devices have stopped. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream polyester operating rate has increased. The terminal loom operating rate has declined [40] - In the short term, the ethylene - glycol supply - demand situation has weakened, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The supply may be further reduced due to geopolitical factors. Be cautiously bullish, and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [40] 3.5.8 Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. The short - fiber device load has decreased, the downstream sales are average, and the raw - material price has strengthened, providing support [41] - The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost is supportive, and the supply has decreased. Consider short - term long positions on dips and pay attention to opportunities to widen the processing fee [41] 3.5.9 Bottle - Chip - The previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. The raw - material price has strengthened, and the device maintenance has increased, which has boosted the market. The downstream soft - drink consumption has continued to recover, and the bottle - chip export has maintained high - speed growth [42] - The bottle - chip supply - demand situation has improved. It is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate. Consider cautious participation on dips and pay attention to opportunities to widen the processing fee [42] 3.5.10 Soda Ash - The previous trading day, the soda - ash main contract fell slightly. The soda - ash device has been slightly adjusted, the downstream demand is average, and the inventory has increased. The supply has increased, and the new orders are general [43] - The long - term supply - surplus situation of soda ash is difficult to relieve, and the downstream demand is weak. The short - term rebound is not recommended to be over - chased [43][45] 3.5.11 Glass - The previous trading day, the glass main contract rose. The actual supply - demand situation has no obvious driver, and the market sentiment is weak. The market is at a historical low, and the short - term rebound may not be sustainable [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in June, and is expected to cut interest rates twice by a total of 50 basis points in 2025. The U.S. economy may face a "stagflation-like" environment with lower growth but resilience and rising inflation. The Fed will likely remain on hold until the economic fundamentals are clear, but the possibility of a rate cut increases if the labor market cools further [3][4][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 6 - Month Fed Meeting Main Highlights - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, the fourth consecutive hold, in line with market expectations. It raised inflation expectations and lowered GDP growth expectations for 2025 - 2027. The 2025, 2026, 2027 year - end core PCE inflation expectations were raised to 3.1%, 2.4%, 2.1% respectively, and GDP growth expectations were lowered to 1.4%, 1.6%, 1.8% respectively [3]. - The Fed's dot - plot shows 2025 is expected to have two rate cuts of 50 basis points, consistent with March expectations, but 2026 is expected to have only a 25 - basis - point cut. Among 19 officials, 7 think there will be no cut in 2025, 2 expect one cut, 8 expect two cuts, and 2 expect three cuts [4]. - Fed Chair Powell said the U.S. economy is stable, but trade and fiscal policy adjustments are uncertain. Tariffs may push up prices and cause inflation pressure, and the labor market does not call for a rate cut. Due to tariff uncertainties, the Fed is on the sidelines [8]. 3.2 Price Trends of Major Asset Classes - After the Fed's decision, major asset prices fluctuated little. U.S. stocks had mixed performance: the S&P 500 fell 0.03%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.10%, the Nasdaq rose 0.13%, the Nasdaq 100 was flat, and the Russell 2000 rose 0.52%. The VIX fell 6.71% [10]. - In the bond market, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield was flat, and the two - year yield fell 1.04 basis points. The U.S. dollar index had a U - shaped reversal and rose slightly over 0.1%. The yen fell 0.1%, and the Australian dollar rose over 0.5%. The offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar fell 29 points [10][11]. - Crude oil prices were affected by geopolitical risks. WTI July crude futures closed at $75.14/barrel, and Brent August crude futures closed at $76.70/barrel. European natural gas prices rose for six consecutive days. Gold futures fell about 0.7%, copper futures rose about 0.9%, platinum reached an 11 - year high, and silver fell [11][12][13]. 3.3 Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Fed Monetary Policy - Overseas macro - environment remained stable despite global trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks. The U.S. May unemployment rate was 4.2%, and non - farm payrolls increased by 139,000, slightly lower than the previous value but higher than expected. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month - on - month and 3.9% year - on - year [14]. - U.S. May inflation was lower than expected. The unadjusted CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.8% year - on - year. Overseas macro - data stability helps ease recession concerns and repair stock market valuations [16][17]. - The U.S. economy may face a "stagflation - like" environment. The Fed will likely remain on hold, but the probability of a rate cut increases if the labor market cools. Market expectations are in line with the dot - plot, with a 66% probability of a September rate cut and a 68% chance of a 50 - basis - point or more cut by December [19]. 3.4 Views on Subsequent Asset Trends - U.S. stocks have recovered most of the losses since "Liberation Day" but may face resistance to further upside due to tariff uncertainties [21]. - U.S. Treasury yields remain around 4.4%. Although the Fed may cut rates, long - term inflation recovery may limit the decline of long - end yields [21]. - For precious metals, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends enhance their value. Gold has upward potential, and silver may have more room for growth given the high gold - silver ratio [21]. - For commodities, Fed rate cuts and lower recession risks are positive, but they are mainly determined by geopolitical risks and China's supply - demand contradictions. Global - priced commodities are expected to outperform domestic - priced ones [21]. - The U.S. dollar may be in a long - term downward cycle, and the RMB may enter an appreciation channel with China's economic recovery [22]. - For A - shares, weak price indices, negative PPI, and low nominal GDP growth restrict corporate profit rebounds. The current stock index may face resistance to rising and has room to fall, waiting for macro - economic recovery [22][23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For bonds, expect no trend - driven market and maintain caution [5]. - For stocks, be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and consider going long on stock index futures [7]. - For precious metals, the long - term bullish trend is expected to continue, and consider going long on gold futures [8]. - For steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coils, prices may continue to decline, and consider short - selling on rebounds [10]. - For iron ore, look for buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - loss [12]. - For coking coal and coke, consider short - selling on rebounds [14]. - For ferroalloys, the supply may exceed demand in the short term, and bulls should be cautious [16]. - For crude oil, prices are expected to rise in the short term [19]. - For fuel oil, consider going long on the main contract [22]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [23]. - For natural rubber, look for long - buying opportunities after the market stabilizes [26]. - For PVC, the mid - term low - level oscillation pattern remains unchanged [27]. - For urea, take a bullish view in the short term [30]. - For PX, consider cautious operations at low levels and pay attention to crude oil and the Middle - East situation [31]. - For PTA, consider going long at low levels and focus on the Middle - East situation [33]. - For ethylene glycol, take a cautiously bullish view and monitor port inventory and imports [34]. - For staple fiber, consider short - term long - buying at low levels and expanding processing margins [36]. - For bottle chips, consider cautious participation at low levels and expanding processing margins [37]. - For soda ash, the long - term oversupply situation persists, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [39]. - For glass, the market sentiment is weak, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [40]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand is loose, and long - position holders should control their positions [42]. - For pulp, the market is under pressure, and the domestic chemical pulp market shows a weak upward trend [43]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus persists, and prices are hard to reverse [46]. - For copper, consider going long on the main contract [48]. - For tin, prices are expected to oscillate [48]. - For nickel, prices are expected to oscillate [49]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, be cautious about soybean meal and consider exiting long positions on rallies for soybean oil [51]. - For palm oil, consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [53]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider going long on the oil - meal ratio [55]. - For cotton, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [58]. - For sugar, consider batch - buying [61]. - For apples, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [63]. - For live pigs, consider positive spreads for peak - season contracts [65]. - For eggs, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [66]. - For corn and starch, the corn market has support but faces pressure, and starch follows the corn market; adopt a wait - and - see strategy [68]. - For logs, beware of long - position sentiment disturbances [71]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Bonds - The previous trading day saw most bond futures close down. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to be cautious [5]. Stocks - Stock index futures showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Stock Exchange introduced an ESG action plan. Despite weak recovery momentum and tariff uncertainties, Chinese equity assets are still favored in the long run, and going long on stock index futures is considered [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver futures declined. Most central banks are expected to increase gold reserves, and the long - term bullish trend is expected to continue. Going long on gold futures is considered [8]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Futures prices showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn and over - capacity are suppressing prices. The market is in the off - season, and prices may continue to fall. Hot - rolled coils may follow the same trend [10]. Iron Ore - Futures prices showed weak oscillations. The decline in iron - water production and the increase in imports have weakened the supply - demand pattern. The price is at a relatively high valuation. Buying at low levels and setting stop - loss are recommended [12]. Coking Coal and Coke - Futures prices showed mixed performance. The market is in an oversupply situation. Coke production is decreasing, and prices may continue to decline. Short - selling on rebounds is considered [14]. Ferroalloys - Manganese and silicon ferroalloys rose slightly. Manganese ore shipments increased, and port inventory rebounded. Steel production declined, and ferroalloy supply may exceed demand in the short term [16]. Crude Oil - INE crude oil rose. Fund managers increased net long positions, and the number of oil and gas rigs decreased. Due to geopolitical risks, prices are expected to rise in the short term [18][19]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose strongly following crude oil. Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the market is uncertain. Going long on the main contract is considered [20][22]. Synthetic Rubber - The main contract rose. Supply pressure eased slightly, and the cost is expected to rebound, driving the market to stabilize and rebound. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate [23]. Natural Rubber - Futures prices rose slightly. Supply was affected by rain, and demand was weak. After the market stabilizes, look for long - buying opportunities [24][26]. PVC - The main contract rose. Supply increased, demand was weak, and it is in the off - season. The mid - term low - level oscillation pattern remains unchanged [27]. Urea - The main contract declined slightly. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by agricultural needs and overseas supply tightening. A short - term bullish view is taken [28][30]. PX - The main contract rose. Supply decreased slightly, and the cost was supported by rising crude oil prices. Prices may rise but with limited upside. Cautious operations at low levels are recommended [31]. PTA - The main contract rose. Supply decreased, demand increased, and the cost was supported by crude oil. Consider going long at low levels [32][33]. Ethylene Glycol - The main contract rose. Supply was affected by the Middle - East conflict, and inventory decreased slightly. Take a cautiously bullish view and monitor imports [34]. Staple Fiber - The main contract rose. Supply decreased, demand weakened, and the cost was supported. Consider short - term long - buying at low levels and expanding processing margins [35][36]. Bottle Chips - The main contract rose. The cost was supported, supply decreased due to maintenance, and demand improved. Consider cautious participation at low levels and expanding processing margins [37]. Soda Ash - The main contract rose. Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and inventory increased. The long - term oversupply situation persists, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [38][39]. Glass - The main contract rose. There is no obvious supply - demand driver. The market sentiment is weak, and avoid over - chasing short - term rebounds [40]. Caustic Soda - The main contract declined slightly. Supply may increase, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand is loose. Long - position holders should control their positions [41][42]. Pulp - The main contract rose. Downstream product production declined, and demand was weak. The domestic chemical pulp market showed a weak upward trend [43]. Lithium Carbonate - The main contract declined slightly. Supply remains high, demand slows down, and the supply - demand surplus persists. Prices are hard to reverse [46]. Copper - Shanghai copper declined. Affected by the Middle - East situation and the Fed's decision, prices oscillated. Although there are some positive factors, the market is cautious. Consider going long on the main contract [47]. Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply from mines is tight, and consumption is good. The price is expected to oscillate between the tight supply and the loose expectation [48]. Nickel - Shanghai nickel declined slightly. The cost support weakened, demand was weak, and the market was in an oversupply situation. Prices are expected to oscillate [49]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Futures prices rose. Soybean crushing increased, and inventory accumulated. Brazilian soybeans had a bumper harvest, and the cost increased. Be cautious about soybean meal and consider exiting long positions on rallies for soybean oil [50][51]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil was nearly flat. Exports increased, but demand from major markets was weak. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [52][53]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed planting may decrease. Domestic imports increased, and inventory accumulated. Consider going long on the oil - meal ratio [54][55]. Cotton - Domestic cotton oscillated. Global supply - demand is expected to be loose, but oil prices may support cotton. The domestic industry is in the off - season. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [56][58]. Sugar - Domestic sugar oscillated at a low level. Brazilian production is expected to increase, and the conflict in the Middle - East may affect supply. Domestic inventory is low. Consider batch - buying [58][61]. Apples - Apple futures oscillated. The final output will be clear after bagging. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [62][63]. Live Pigs - The price declined slightly. Group - farm sales are increasing, and demand is weak after the holiday. Consider positive spreads for peak - season contracts [63][65]. Eggs - The price rose. Egg production is expected to increase, and it is the off - season. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [66]. Corn and Starch - Corn and starch futures rose slightly. Supply and demand are approaching balance, but there is pressure on the upside. Starch follows the corn market. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [67][68]. Logs - The main contract was flat. The number of incoming ships increased, and inventory changed. The market has no obvious driver. Beware of long - position sentiment disturbances [69][71].

2025 年 6 月 19 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铜： | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | | 棕榈油： | | 19 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 20 | | 棉花： | | 20 | | 白糖： | | 21 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 23 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 24 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 26 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘表现分化，30 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 120.900 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.01%报 109.140 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.01%报 106.280 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.01%报 102.544 元。 公开市场方面，央行公开市场开展 ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In May 2025, the macro - economic data continued the overall stability of 2025, but the recovery momentum still needed to be strengthened. The real GDP growth rate was stronger than the nominal GDP. The domestic economy showed strong resilience with robust industrial production and high - speed consumption, but also faced challenges such as weak price index, falling real estate sales growth, and declining export growth. The macro - economy presented a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum, and the pressure on the price index was higher than that on real GDP. Macro - policies were needed to enhance market confidence. Despite the setbacks, the macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward repair trend in 2025 [2][34][35] Summary by Directory 1. Manufacturing PMI Rebounded Month - on - Month, but the Strength was Weak - In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points. The production index was 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating accelerated production activities. The new order index was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, showing a recovery in market demand. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points. The rebound of manufacturing PMI was weak, indicating that the domestic economic recovery momentum still needed to be enhanced [3][6] 2. In April, CPI Declined 0.1% Year - on - Year, and PPI Fell 2.7% Year - on - Year, with Prices Remaining Depressed - In May 2025, the national CPI declined 0.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The core CPI excluding food and energy increased 0.6% year - on - year, with a slight rebound. The PPI declined 3.3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month; the industrial producer purchase price declined 3.6% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. The fall in global commodity prices such as crude oil dragged down the PPI, reflecting weak domestic demand and relative over - capacity in corresponding industries [7][8][10] 3. In April, Exports Increased 8.1% Year - on - Year, and Imports Declined 0.2% Year - on - Year - In May 2025, the total import and export volume was 528.98 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth of 1.3%. Exports were 316.1 billion US dollars, up 4.8% year - on - year; imports were 212.88 billion US dollars, down 3.4% year - on - year; the trade surplus was 103.22 billion US dollars. Exports to the US declined 34.5% year - on - year, to the EU increased 12.0% year - on - year, to ASEAN countries increased 14.8% year - on - year, and to Japan increased 6.2% year - on - year. The high export growth in April might be related to "re - export trade" and "rush to export" by enterprises, while the decline in May might be due to the end of "rush to export and replenish inventory" by overseas enterprises. The export growth was expected to further decline in the second half of 2025 [12][14] 4. M1 Significantly Rebounded in May - In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 18.63 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of May, the stock of social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.7%. In May, residents' short - term loans decreased by 208 million yuan, and medium - and long - term loans increased by 746 million yuan. Enterprises' short - term loans increased by 1.1 billion yuan, medium - and long - term loans increased by 3.3 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 746 million yuan. The M1 balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 2.3%, and the M2 balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 7.9%. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to 5.6%. The credit in May continued to be weak, but the M1 growth rate significantly rebounded [16][20][21] 5. Industrial Production was Stable, and Consumption Growth was High - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The total retail sales of consumer goods in May was 4.1326 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 6.4%. The high - speed growth of consumption was due to consumption subsidies and trade - in policies. The consumption of home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment maintained high growth rates, but the sales of automobiles and petroleum products dragged down the growth. The investment in fixed assets continued to slow down, and the real estate development investment was still in a downward trend, but the decline was narrowing [22][23][25] 6. The Growth Rate of Real Estate Sales Declined, but it had Conditions for Stabilization - From January to May, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 2.9% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased 3.8% year - on - year. The construction area, new construction area, and completion area of real estate development enterprises all declined. The unsold area of commercial housing decreased slightly. Although the real estate market cooled in the second quarter, it was still in an improving trend. The year - on - year decline in sales area and volume was expected to further narrow. There was room for further strengthening of real estate policies, and the "market bottom" of this round of real estate downward cycle was emerging [28][30][33] 7. Summary and Outlook - The domestic economy showed strong resilience with stable industrial production and high - speed consumption growth, but the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened. The macro - economy presented a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. The main factors affecting the macro - economy and asset price repair were insufficient market demand and structural over - capacity in multiple industries. Macro - policies were needed to boost market confidence and expand effective demand, and the supply - side needed to be cleared. The macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward repair trend in 2025 [34][35]