1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market Outlook**: The current macro - economic data remains stable, but the recovery momentum needs strengthening. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Market risk preferences have increased, and different asset classes show various trends [6][9]. - **Asset - Specific Views**: - **Bonds**: Treasury futures are expected to face some pressure, and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. - **Equities**: Stock index futures are expected to have a gradually rising volatility center, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are expected to continue the upward trend. Investors can wait and see for now and look for long - entry opportunities [12][13]. - **Base Metals and Steel**: Most base metals and steel products show weak or volatile trends. Investors can take appropriate short - term trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as shorting at high levels or going long at low levels [14][15][17]. - **Energy**: Crude oil and fuel oil have different market situations. Crude oil may have long - entry opportunities near key price points, while fuel oil may have room for rebound. Both are currently in a wait - and - see situation [26][27][29]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. Some may be in a weak or strong position, and investors need to pay attention to supply - demand changes and policy impacts [62][70][73]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.89%, 0.26%, 0.17%, and 0.07% respectively. The central bank conducted 59.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan [5]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: With stable macro - data but weak recovery momentum, and low treasury yields, treasury futures are expected to face pressure, and investors should be cautious [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: Stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures changed by 0.12%, 0.22%, 0.04%, and - 0.15% respectively [8]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Despite weak corporate profit growth, low domestic asset valuations, sufficient economic resilience, and increased market sentiment suggest that the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to rise, and investors can go long at the right time [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver main contracts rose by 1.34% and 1.43% respectively. The initial annualized quarterly rate of the US real GDP in Q3 was 4.3%, and the US durable goods orders in October decreased by 2.2% [11][12]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for precious metals, which are expected to continue rising. Investors can wait for long - entry opportunities [12][13]. Base Metals and Steel Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. Tangshan billet was priced at 2960 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar at 3180 - 3320 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3250 - 3270 yuan/ton [14]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Due to the long - term decline in real estate demand, approaching demand off - season, and supply - side factors, rebar prices may continue to oscillate weakly. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can short at high levels during rebounds [14][15]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: Iron ore futures oscillated. PB powder was priced at 788 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder at 670 yuan/ton [17]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: With falling iron - water output, increasing imports, and rising port inventories, the supply - demand pattern is weak. Futures may face resistance at previous highs. Investors can short at high levels [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: Coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. Since December, domestic coking coal production has decreased, and the third - round price cut for coke procurement has started [19]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: In the short term, the futures may continue to rebound. Investors can go long at low levels [19][20]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts changed by - 0.21% and 0.18% respectively. Manganese ore shipments decreased, and port inventories increased slightly. Ferroalloy production continued to decline [22]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Although the overall oversupply pressure persists, there may be long - entry opportunities at low levels after the expansion of spot losses [22][23]. Energy Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: INE crude oil opened high and closed low, blocked by the 20 - day moving average. Fund managers reduced net short positions, and the number of active oil and gas rigs decreased [24][25]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: There may be long - entry opportunities near the $60 mark for Brent crude. Currently, investors are advised to wait and see [26][27]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: Fuel oil rose significantly, closing above the 20 - day moving average. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, but it is still much higher than the average [28]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Tight Asian spot supply and stable crude oil prices support fuel oil prices. It has large rebound potential, but investors are advised to wait and see [29][30]. Chemicals Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: PP and LLDPE markets showed weak trends. PP prices were 6050 - 6200 yuan/ton, and LLDPE prices dropped by 50 - 120 yuan/ton [31]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The polyolefin market is in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction in standard product supply may boost market sentiment. Investors are advised to wait and see [31][32]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: Synthetic rubber main contract rose by 0.90%. Raw material prices increased, supply was abundant, and demand was weak [33][34]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate [35]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: Natural rubber main contracts rose. Domestic supply decreased, and demand was weak. Inventory continued to accumulate [36]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate [37]. PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC main contract rose by 3.02%. Supply decreased slightly, demand weakened, and inventory decreased slightly [38][39]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Pay attention to supply - side changes [39]. Urea - **Market Performance**: Urea main contract rose by 1.24%. Daily output fluctuated slightly, demand may increase slightly, and inventory was lower than expected [40]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The downward space is limited [41]. PX - **Market Performance**: PX2603 main contract rose by 1.84%. PXN spread adjusted, and supply - demand improved [42]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may oscillate strongly in the short term. Investors can participate at low levels and be vigilant about crude oil and macro - policy changes [43]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PTA2605 main contract rose by 2.38%. Supply decreased, demand was stable, and processing fees declined [44]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may have upward momentum. Investors can participate at low levels following cost changes [44]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: Ethylene glycol main contract fell by 3.02%. Supply increased, inventory accumulated, and demand support weakened [45][46]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may oscillate at the bottom. Investors can trade within the range and pay attention to inventory and supply changes [46]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: Short - fiber 2602 main contract rose by 1.32%. Supply decreased slightly, demand weakened, and cost drive increased [47]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may oscillate following raw material prices. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost and policy changes [47]. Bottle - Grade PET - **Market Performance**: Bottle - grade PET 2603 main contract rose by 1.75%. Processing fees declined, supply decreased slightly, and export growth improved [48]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate following cost changes. Investors should control risks [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose by 5.67%. Supply was high, demand improved, and inventory decreased [49]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper main contract rose by 1.04%. Supply was tight, and demand had short - term pressure [50]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will remain at a high level, but investors should be cautious about chasing the rise [50][51]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Shanghai aluminum main contract rose by 0.16%, and alumina main contract rose by 0.83%. Alumina supply was in surplus, and aluminum demand was average [52][53]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level [53][54]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.39%. Supply decreased, demand was weak, and inventory increased [55]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will oscillate and adjust [55][56]. Lead - **Market Performance**: Lead market situation is similar to zinc, with weak supply - demand and limited upward and downward space [57]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will oscillate and adjust [57][58]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin main contract fell by 1.63%. Supply was tight, and demand had certain resilience [59]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly [59]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel main contract rose by 2.52%. Policy risks increased, supply was in surplus, and demand was weak [60]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Pay attention to Indonesian policies [60]. Agricultural Products Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts rose. Brazilian soybean planting was almost completed, and domestic oil - mill crushing was at a high level [61][62]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Soybean meal may have long - entry opportunities at low levels, and soybean oil may have upward potential after breaking through. Investors can consider long - entry opportunities in low - level call options [62]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose. Indonesian biodiesel policy and export data changed, and domestic inventory was at a medium level [63]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see [65]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed futures fell slightly. Domestic rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal imports changed, and inventory levels were different [66]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see [67]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic cotton futures were strong, and overseas cotton rose. Xinjiang's cotton policy and supply - demand reports affected the market [68][70]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to be strong [70][71]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly, and overseas raw sugar rose. Domestic and overseas sugar production and import data changed [72][73]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will oscillate weakly [74]. Apples - **Market Performance**: Apple futures oscillated, and inventory decreased slightly. New - season production and quality declined [75][77]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Apple prices are expected to be strong [77][78]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average pig price rose slightly. Supply and demand factors such as sow inventory, planned slaughter, and consumption affected the market [79][80]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see and follow the slaughter rhythm and consumption changes [80]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg prices were stable. Egg production was high, and demand was weak [81][82]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see [83]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. North - port inventory increased, and demand was slightly improved [84][85]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Wait for the release of supply pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market [86].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The overall outlook for various futures markets is diverse. Some markets are expected to have upward trends, some to be in a weak or strong oscillation, and some are recommended for specific trading strategies such as waiting for opportunities or light - position participation [6] [7] [9]. Summary by Categories Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 67.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 22, with a net withdrawal of 63.6 billion yuan. LPR remained unchanged for 7 consecutive months. Given the current situation, treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Remain cautious [6]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The CSRC will halve the delivery fees of stock index futures and treasury bond futures and the exercise (performance) fees of stock index options from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026. - **Investment Strategy**: The volatility center of the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold and silver main contracts rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and the possible continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are all beneficial to precious metals. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for now and wait for opportunities to go long [9]. Steel and Iron - related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. In the medium term, the price is mainly determined by industry supply and demand. The demand for rebar is in a downward trend year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. Although the supply pressure has eased, the inventory is higher than last year. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds and manage positions carefully [11]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures may face resistance near the previous high. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to shorting opportunities at high levels and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The supply of coking coal decreased in December, and the procurement of downstream coking enterprises increased. The third - round price cut of coke spot procurement has started, and the demand from steel mills has weakened. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels and manage positions carefully [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose. The supply of manganese ore decreased, and the cost of ferroalloys increased. The demand for ferroalloys was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low levels after the expansion of spot losses [18]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened high and went high. The CFTC data showed that US funds reduced their net short positions, and the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased. Barclays maintained its 2026 Brent crude price forecast. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [19] [20]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly. The Asian spot fuel oil market was weak, but the on - shore inventory was relieved. The sudden tightness of Asian fuel oil supply and the stable trend of crude oil supported the fuel oil price. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [22] [23]. Chemical Products - **Polyolefin**: On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou and the LLDPE market in Yuyao showed a downward trend. The supply pressure of standard products is expected to slow down slightly, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The price was supported by cost and demand in the short term, and attention should be paid to the changes in supply - side equipment and demand - side recovery. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillate [27] [29]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell. The market is expected to have a long - short game, and the rubber price may oscillate. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillate [30] [31]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The supply - demand imbalance continues, but the downward space may be limited. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to the changes on the supply side [32] [33]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The daily output of urea is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the demand is expected to increase slightly. - **Market Outlook**: The downward space is limited [34] [35]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose. The PXN spread is at a neutral - to - high level, and the short - term profit is improving. The supply - demand pattern has improved, and the cost of crude oil has a short - term driving force. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities at low levels, be vigilant about crude oil changes, and pay attention to macro - policy changes [36] [37]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose. The supply load decreased, and the demand load remained stable. The processing fee decreased, and the inventory was low. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities following the cost side, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [38]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. The supply pressure increased, the port inventory continued to rise, and the demand support weakened slightly. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider trading within the range and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [39] [40]. - **Short Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the short fiber 2602 main contract rose. The supply decreased but remained at a high level, the demand support weakened, and the cost - driving force increased. - **Investment Strategy**: Follow the cost - side logic, pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments, and control risks [41]. - **Bottle Chip**: On the previous trading day, the bottle chip 2603 main contract rose. The processing fee decreased, the supply load decreased slightly, and the export growth rate increased. - **Investment Strategy**: Follow the cost - side logic and control risks [42]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract was flat. The macro - situation is complex, with concerns about economic recession and speculation about Fed rate cuts. The fundamentals remain in a tight balance, and the copper price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. - **Market Outlook**: High - level oscillation [44] [45]. - **Aluminum**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract fell, and the alumina main contract rose. The alumina supply is in surplus, and the aluminum price may maintain a high - level oscillation. - **Market Outlook**: High - level oscillation [46] [47]. - **Zinc**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell. The zinc price lacks strong driving force, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillate and adjust [48] [49]. - **Lead**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose slightly. The consumption is in the off - season, and the lead price is expected to oscillate weakly within a range. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillate within a range [50] [51]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, the tin main contract fell. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillate strongly [53]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, the nickel main contract rose. The Indonesian policy risk increases, and the nickel market is in a surplus pattern. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to relevant Indonesian policies [54]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts rose. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal grows moderately, and the demand for soybean oil improves slightly. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal at the low - cost support interval and long - position opportunities for soybean oil call options at the low interval [55] [56]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price rose. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium - to - low level in the past 7 years. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for now [57] [59]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed price rebounded. The domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are in the process of destocking. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for now [60] [61]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price oscillated strongly, and the international cotton price oscillated weakly. The domestic cotton output increased, but the inventory accumulation was less than expected, and the cotton price is expected to run strongly. - **Market Outlook**: Run strongly [62] [64]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price rebounded slightly, and the international sugar price rose. The domestic sugar supply pressure is increasing, but the 01 contract is lower than the spot price, and the current warehouse receipt volume is low. - **Market Outlook**: Run weakly and oscillate [66] [69]. - **Apple**: The domestic apple futures oscillated. The apple inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the output and quality have declined. The apple price is expected to run strongly. - **Market Outlook**: Run strongly [70] [71]. - **Pig**: The national average pig price rose slightly. The northern market may turn stronger, and the southern market may slow down its decline. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see [73] [74]. - **Egg**: The egg price remained flat. The egg supply in December may remain at a high level, but the demand is weak. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for now [75] [77]. - **Corn and Starch**: The corn and corn starch main contracts rose slightly. The northern port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the demand for corn maintains a slight growth trend. Corn starch may follow the corn market. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the release of supply pressure [78] [80].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macroeconomic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. There is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, so stay cautious [6]. - The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the valuation repair of domestic assets still has room, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently. It is expected that the central fluctuation range of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. It is expected that precious metals will continue to rise. Investors can wait and see for now and wait for opportunities to go long [10]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the prices may continue the weak and volatile pattern. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [11]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and the futures may face resistance near the previous high. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [13]. - Coke and coking coal futures may continue to rebound in the short term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [15]. - The overall surplus pressure of ferroalloys continues, but the downward space of costs is limited. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot losses expand [17]. - The trend of crude oil is uncertain. The price of Brent crude oil is near the $60 integer mark. Investors need to wait for the market to become clear and temporarily stay on the sidelines [20]. - The spot supply of fuel oil in Asia is suddenly tight, and the cost - end crude oil stabilizes. The fuel oil price has fallen to a new low this year and has a large rebound space. Investors can temporarily stay on the sidelines [23]. - The polyolefin market is still in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction of standard product supply may boost market sentiment to some extent. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [27]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate [30]. - Natural rubber is expected to show a volatile trend [33]. - The PVC market continues to have a supply - surplus situation, and investors should pay attention to changes in the supply side [34]. - The downward space of urea prices is limited [37]. - PX may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to participate at low levels and be vigilant about changes in crude oil and macro - policies [38]. - PTA may have an upward driving force in the short term. Investors can consider participating at low levels, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. - Ethylene glycol may maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. Investors can consider trading within the range and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40]. - Short - fiber may follow the raw material price to oscillate. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [41]. - Bottle chips are expected to follow the cost side to oscillate. Investors should control risks [42]. - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the social inventory is gradually being depleted. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [46]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [48]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain an oscillating adjustment [51]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly within a range [53]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [54]. - Nickel is still in a surplus pattern, and investors should pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [56]. - For soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, the short - term downward space may be limited, and investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in call options [59]. - Palm oil investors should temporarily stay on the sidelines [61]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil investors should temporarily stay on the sidelines [64]. - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly [68]. - Sugar prices are expected to run weakly and oscillate [71]. - Apple prices are expected to run strongly [73]. - For live pigs, investors should continue to follow the marginal changes in consumption brought by subsequent cooling and consider waiting and seeing [76]. - For eggs, investors should consider temporarily staying on the sidelines [78]. - Corn and corn starch may follow the market trend. Investors should wait patiently for the further release of supply pressure [80]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, with a net investment of 357 billion yuan on the day. It is expected that there is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, so stay cautious [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the valuation repair of domestic assets has room, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected that the central fluctuation range will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates, and the US consumer confidence index was lower than expected. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. It is expected that precious metals will continue to rise. Investors can wait and see for now and wait for opportunities to go long [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the market will enter the off - season. The production capacity is in surplus, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The prices may continue the weak and volatile pattern. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [11]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The national hot - metal daily output has been declining since October, the supply has increased, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures may face resistance near the previous high. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - On the previous trading day, coke and coking coal futures oscillated. The production of domestic coking coal has decreased, and the demand from downstream coking enterprises has increased. The third - round price cut of coke spot procurement has started, and the demand from steel mills has weakened. The futures may continue to rebound in the short term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [15]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures closed up. The supply of manganese ore has decreased, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The production of ferroalloys has continued to decline, and the demand is weak. The overall surplus pressure continues, but the downward space of costs is limited. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot losses expand [17]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rebounded after reaching a low. The US imposed sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers. The CFTC data showed that fund managers reduced their net short positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased. Barclays maintained its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in 2026. The trend of crude oil is uncertain, and investors need to wait for the market to become clear and temporarily stay on the sidelines [19][20]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fell sharply. The supply of marine fuel oil in Asia is suddenly tight, and the cost - end crude oil stabilizes. The fuel oil price has fallen to a new low this year and has a large rebound space. Investors can temporarily stay on the sidelines [22][23]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market fell. The production of polyolefins is expected to be stable with slight fluctuations. The supply pressure of standard products may be slightly relieved, but the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The market is still in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction of standard product supply may boost market sentiment to some extent. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [25][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. The price has been rising slightly recently, supported by costs and demand. The follow - up needs to focus on changes in supply - side devices and the recovery of demand [29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures closed down. It is expected that the market will continue the long - short game, and the rubber price may show a volatile trend. The supply is affected by overseas conflicts, the demand from the tire industry is slow, and the inventory continues to accumulate [31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures closed down. The supply - surplus situation continues, but the downward space may be limited. The upward trend needs to wait for the improvement of the fundamentals. After the festival, focus on exports and supply reduction [34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures closed down. It is expected that the urea market will rise slightly this week. The daily production is expected to fluctuate slightly, the industrial demand is strong, and the agricultural demand is weak. The downward space of prices is limited [35]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread has been repaired to a moderately high level, and there may be pressure above. The short - term profit has improved, the start - up rate is stable, and the cost - end crude oil has a short - term rebound drive. The supply - demand pattern has improved month - on - month. In the short term, PX may fluctuate strongly. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to participate at low levels and be vigilant about changes in crude oil and macro - policies [38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply of PTA has decreased, and the demand from the polyester industry is stable, but the terminal loom load has declined. The processing fee has rebounded slightly, and the inventory is still at a low level. In the short term, PTA may have an upward driving force. Investors can consider participating at low levels, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures closed down. The new investment and restart of ethylene glycol devices have increased, the supply pressure still exists, the port inventory continues to accumulate, and the pre - arrival at the port has increased. In the short term, it may maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. Investors can consider trading within the range and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply of short - fiber has declined but remains at a relatively high level, the demand support has weakened, but the cost drive has increased, and the inventory is at a low level. In the short term, it may follow the raw material price to oscillate. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [41]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The processing fee has been adjusted to around 500 yuan/ton. The load of bottle - chip factories has decreased, the export growth rate has increased, and the supply - demand structure has improved slightly month - on - month. It is expected to follow the cost side to oscillate. Investors should control risks [42]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply is still at a high level, and the consumption in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The social inventory is gradually being depleted. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The US employment data and inflation data have affected market expectations. The fundamentals are in a tight balance, the supply shortage risk remains, and the demand has short - term pressure. The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [44][45]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The alumina market is in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is stable. The demand is average, and the inventory has changed. The aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [47]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The zinc concentrate processing fee is under pressure, the refined zinc production has decreased, the downstream demand has declined, and the LME zinc inventory has increased. The zinc price is expected to maintain an oscillating adjustment [49][50]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures rose. Some primary lead enterprises are under maintenance, and some secondary lead enterprises have resumed production. The consumption has entered the off - season, and the inventory has decreased. The lead price is expected to oscillate weakly within a range [52]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, the production in Wa State is progressing slowly, and the import from Indonesia may be affected. The demand shows certain resilience. The refined tin inventory has decreased. The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly [54]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. Indonesia plans to reduce the nickel - ore quota in 2026 and may tax associated resources. The nickel - ore price is stable, but the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. Nickel is still in a surplus pattern, and investors should pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [55][56]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures closed down. Brazilian soybean planting is nearly completed, and the US soybean price has declined. The domestic soybean arrival volume is at a high level, the oil - mill crushing is in a loss, and the inventory pressure is still large. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. For soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, the short - term downward space may be limited, and investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in call options [57][59]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil has fallen for two consecutive weeks. The inventory in Indonesia has decreased, and the export in Malaysia has increased. The domestic palm - oil inventory is at a medium - low level in the past seven years. Investors should temporarily stay on the sidelines [60][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures have fallen for six consecutive days. The domestic import of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has changed, and the inventory has decreased. Investors should temporarily stay on the sidelines [62][64]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated strongly, and overseas cotton futures rebounded slightly. The 2026 Xinjiang cotton industry policy will reduce the sown area by more than 10%. The global and US cotton inventories have increased. The domestic cotton harvest is nearly completed, and the demand is average. The cotton price is expected to run strongly [65][67]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fell, and overseas raw - sugar futures rose. The domestic sugar import in November decreased year - on - year, and the Brazilian sugar export decreased slightly. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly. The domestic new - sugar supply pressure is increasing, and the import volume in December is expected to be high. The sugar price is expected to run weakly and oscillate [69][71]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated and rose. The inventory in the main producing areas has decreased, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. The apple price is expected to run strongly [72][73]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs has fallen. The northern market may turn strong, and the southern market's decline expectation may converge. The supply and demand situation and inventory have changed. Investors should continue to follow the marginal changes in consumption brought by subsequent cooling and consider waiting and seeing [74][76]. Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas has remained flat. The egg - chicken inventory is at a high level, and the consumption may weaken after the winter solstice. The supply improvement is offset by weak demand. Investors should consider temporarily staying on the sidelines [77][78]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures closed down. The northern - port corn inventory is accumulating, the import may increase in the future, the new - season corn in the main producing areas is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the cost may be revised down. The demand for corn is growing slightly, and the corn - starch demand has recovered slightly, but the inventory is at a high level. They may follow the market trend. Investors should wait patiently for the further release of supply pressure [79][80].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening. The bond market is under pressure, and caution is advised; the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and it's advisable to go long at an appropriate time; precious metals are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait for opportunities to go long; steel products are likely to remain weak, and investors can short at high levels; iron ore may experience a correction, and short - selling at high levels is recommended; coking coal and coke may stop falling and stabilize, and investors can consider buying at low levels; ferroalloys may be considered for low - level long positions after losses in the spot market widen; crude oil and fuel oil are recommended for temporary observation; polyolefins can be considered for long positions; synthetic and natural rubber are expected to fluctuate; PVC requires attention to supply - side changes; urea has limited downside space; PX and PTA may fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to oil price changes; ethylene glycol may maintain bottom - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes; short - fiber may fluctuate with costs; bottle chips are expected to follow cost - side fluctuations; lithium carbonate is in a situation of both supply and demand boom; copper may have a technical correction risk; aluminum may continue to fluctuate at a high level; zinc should be chased with caution; lead may continue to fluctuate; tin may fluctuate strongly; nickel may fluctuate; soybean oil and meal can be considered for long positions in the low - cost support range; palm oil and rapeseed meal and oil are recommended for temporary observation; cotton is expected to run strongly; sugar is expected to run weakly and fluctuate; apples are expected to run strongly; pigs can be considered for observation; eggs are recommended for temporary observation; corn and starch may follow the corn market trend [6][10][12][15][17][20][23][25][28][30][32][34][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][45][46][48][50][51][53][55][58][62][66][67][71][73][77] Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.63%, 0.10%, 0.06%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank conducted 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan on the day. From January to November, national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year; expenditure increased by 1.4% year - on - year [5] - **Outlook**: The bond market is under pressure, and caution is advised [6][7] Stock Index - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 1.86%, 1.43%, 2.02%, and 1.54% respectively [8] - **Outlook**: The stock index is expected to gradually move up, and it's advisable to go long at an appropriate time [10][11] Precious Metals - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose 0.85%, and the silver main contract rose 5.77%. The Fed may cut interest rates, and the global trade and financial environment is complex [12] - **Outlook**: Precious metals are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait for opportunities to go long [12][13] Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly. The spot price of Tangshan billet is 2,950 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar is 3,150 - 3,280 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3,250 - 3,270 yuan/ton [14] - **Outlook**: The price of rebar may remain weak in the medium term, and hot - rolled coil may follow a similar trend. Investors can short at high levels [15] Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The spot price of PB powder is 784 yuan/ton, and super - special powder is 675 yuan/ton. Since October, national hot - metal daily output has declined, and port inventory has increased [17] - **Outlook**: The iron ore market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may experience a correction. Investors can short at high levels [17] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly. Since December, domestic coking coal production has decreased, and downstream demand is weak. The second - round price cut of coke spot purchases has landed [19] - **Outlook**: Coking coal and coke futures may stop falling and stabilize, but the medium - term weakness has not reversed. Investors can consider buying at low levels [20] Ferroalloys - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose 0.16%, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 1.06%. Manganese ore supply is tight, and the cost is rising. The production of ferroalloys is declining, and the demand is weak [22] - **Outlook**: Ferroalloys are in an overall oversupply situation. After losses in the spot market widen, low - level long positions can be considered [23] Crude Oil - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil rebounded after hitting the bottom. The US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers and CFTC data show that funds are bearish on the future of crude oil [24][25] - **Outlook**: The trend of crude oil is uncertain, and the main contract is recommended for temporary observation [25][26] Fuel Oil - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. Singapore's fuel oil inventory has reached a 13 - week high due to increased imports and weak consumption [27] - **Outlook**: The fuel oil price is under pressure, and the main contract is recommended for temporary observation [28] Polyolefins - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market declined, and the Yuyao LLDPE price fell. The market supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak [29] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin fundamentals are weak, and investors can consider long positions [29][30] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 2.81%. The cost is supported, and the supply has slightly increased. The tire demand is slow [31] - **Outlook**: Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate [31][32] Natural Rubber - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 1.42%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract rose 1.53%. The supply is affected by overseas conflicts, and the demand is slow. The inventory is increasing [32] - **Outlook**: Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate [32][33] PVC - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 1.17%. The supply exceeds demand, the device utilization rate has decreased, and the demand has declined [34] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the supply - side changes of PVC [34] Urea - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 1.29%. The daily output is expected to fluctuate slightly, the industrial demand is strong, and the agricultural demand is weak [35] - **Outlook**: The downside space of urea is limited [35][36] PX - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose 0.47%. The PX load has declined slightly, and the short - process profit has improved [37] - **Outlook**: PX may fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [37] PTA - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 0.3%. The PTA load is 73.7%, the polyester load is 91.2%, and the processing fee has recovered [38] - **Outlook**: PTA may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [38] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 0.67%. The overall start - up load has decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the demand has weakened [39] - **Outlook**: Ethylene glycol may maintain bottom - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes [39] Short - Fiber - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602 main contract rose 0.43%. The device load has decreased, the demand has changed little, and the inventory is stable [40] - **Outlook**: Short - fiber may fluctuate with costs, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40] Bottle Chips - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the bottle chips 2603 main contract rose 0.28%. The processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, the load has slightly decreased, and the export growth has slowed down [41] - **Outlook**: Bottle chips are expected to follow cost - side fluctuations [41] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the main contract rose 7.6%. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is strong. The inventory is gradually decreasing [42] - **Outlook**: Lithium carbonate is in a situation of both supply and demand boom [42] Copper - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.51%. The global copper concentrate supply - demand imbalance is intensified, the production has recovered, but the terminal procurement has weakened [43] - **Outlook**: Copper may have a technical correction risk [43][44] Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract rose 0.75%, and the alumina main contract rose 0.9%. Alumina supply exceeds demand, and electrolytic aluminum supply is constrained. The inventory has decreased [45] - **Outlook**: Aluminum may continue to fluctuate at a high level [45][46] Zinc - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.59%. The refined zinc production has decreased, the consumption has entered the off - season, and the inventory has decreased [46] - **Outlook**: Chase zinc with caution [46][47] Lead - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.33%. The supply has shrunk, the demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased [48] - **Outlook**: Lead may continue to fluctuate [48] Tin - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the main contract rose 2.84%. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory has decreased [49][50] - **Outlook**: Tin may fluctuate strongly [50] Nickel - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.51%. The nickel ore price is stable, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [51] - **Outlook**: Nickel may fluctuate [51] Soybean Oil and Meal - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 0.45%, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.89%. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower, the oil - mill crushing is at a high level, and the inventory pressure is still large [52] - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and meal can be considered for long positions in the low - cost support range [53] Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the palm oil night session strengthened. The US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, the Indian inventory has decreased, and the Malaysian exports have declined [54] - **Outlook**: Palm oil is recommended for temporary observation [55] Rapeseed Meal and Oil - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the rapeseed price fell. The US biofuel blending decision is postponed, the domestic import volume has changed, and the inventory is in the middle or high level of the past seven years [56][57] - **Outlook**: Rapeseed meal and oil are recommended for temporary observation [58] Cotton - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell slightly, and overseas cotton rebounded slightly. The 2026 Xinjiang cotton planting area will be reduced by more than 10%. The global cotton inventory has increased, and the textile and clothing exports are relatively stable [59][60][61] - **Outlook**: Cotton is expected to run strongly [62] Sugar - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly, and overseas raw sugar fell. Brazilian sugar production has decreased, Indian sugar production has increased, and the domestic new sugar supply pressure is increasing [63][64][65] - **Outlook**: Sugar is expected to run weakly and fluctuate [66] Apples - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded slightly. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined [67] - **Outlook**: Apples are expected to run strongly [68] Pigs - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the national average pig price rose. The consumption is improving, the supply is expected to increase, and the cost is fluctuating at a low level [69][70][71] - **Outlook**: Observe the follow - up consumption changes and consider waiting and seeing [71] Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the main - producing area egg price was flat, and the main - selling area egg price was flat. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, the cost is rising, and the profit is low [72] - **Outlook**: Eggs are recommended for temporary observation [73] Corn and Starch - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the corn main contract fell 0.14%, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.12%. The northern port inventory may accumulate, the demand is growing slightly, and the corn starch inventory is at a high level [74][75][76] - **Outlook**: Corn and starch may follow the corn market trend [77]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, industrial metals, agricultural products, and energy products. It assesses the current market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of each commodity, and offers corresponding investment suggestions [5][8][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a mixed performance in treasury bond futures. The 30 - year contract declined by 0.19%, while the 10 - year and 5 - year contracts rose by 0.05% and 0.03% respectively, and the 2 - year contract fell by 0.02%. The central bank conducted 135.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 18 billion yuan. Given the current macro - economic situation, treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [5][6]. Stocks - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day witnessed mixed results in stock index futures, with all major contracts showing declines. Although the domestic economic situation is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, due to low asset valuations, sufficient economic resilience, improved market sentiment, and reduced Sino - US economic and trade uncertainties, the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually rise, and investors can consider taking long positions [8]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined in the previous trading day. Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", central bank gold purchases, and the expected continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend. Investors can wait and watch for long - position opportunities [10]. Industrial Metals - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations in the previous trading day. In the medium term, the supply - demand situation remains unfavorable, with weak demand due to the real - estate downturn and approaching off - season, and high inventory levels. The prices are expected to remain weak, and investors can consider short - selling at high prices during rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures rebounded slightly in the previous trading day. The supply - demand pattern is weak, with a decline in iron - water production, an increase in imports, and rising port inventories. Technically, there may be a correction, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly in the previous trading day. The supply of coking coal decreased, and the demand for coke weakened. Technically, there are signs of stabilization, but the medium - term weakness remains. Investors can consider long - positions at low prices [16][17]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices declined in the previous trading day. The supply of ferroalloys is in excess, with high production levels and weak demand. However, the cost is rising, and the downward space is limited. Investors can consider long - positions at low prices when the spot losses expand [19][20]. - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper futures contract declined in the previous trading day. The global copper concentrate supply - demand imbalance is intensified, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to tighten. However, high copper prices have weakened terminal purchases. The price may face a technical correction after a strong rise [46]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum futures contract rose slightly in the previous trading day. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained, and the demand shows some resilience. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [48]. - **Zinc**: The zinc futures contract declined in the previous trading day. The production of refined zinc is decreasing, and the consumption is in the off - season. Although the inventory is decreasing, the consumption drag and the expected oversupply next year remain. Caution is advised when chasing the price up [50]. - **Lead**: The lead futures contract declined in the previous trading day. The supply is shrinking, and the inventory is at a low level, limiting the downward space. However, weak demand and potential import pressure restrict the upward space. The price is expected to oscillate [52]. - **Tin**: The tin futures contract rose slightly in the previous trading day. The supply is tight, and the demand shows some resilience. The refined tin inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [54][56]. - **Nickel**: The nickel futures contract declined in the previous trading day. The nickel ore price is stable, but the downstream consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to oscillate [57]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal prices rose, while soybean oil prices fell in the previous trading day. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, while the demand for soybean oil is slightly improving but still facing supply pressure. Investors can consider long - positions at low - cost support levels [58][59]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices continued to decline. The international oil price also fell. The export of palm oil decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. It is recommended to wait and watch [60][61]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canola prices continued to decline, affected by the falling crude oil price. The import of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in China increased. It is recommended to wait and watch [62][63]. - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices declined slightly, and international cotton prices were also under pressure. The US and global cotton inventories increased. Although the domestic cotton harvest is good, the inventory accumulation is lower than expected. The price is expected to be strong [65][67]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices declined. The sugar production in Brazil decreased, while India's production increased significantly. The domestic sugar supply pressure is increasing, but the 01 contract price is lower than the spot price, and the warehouse receipt volume is low. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [69][70]. - **Apples**: Apple futures prices declined significantly. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. The price is expected to be strong [72]. - **Pigs**: The national average price of live pigs declined slightly. The supply of large - weight pigs is gradually increasing, and the consumption may increase. It is recommended to wait and watch [74][75]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices remained stable. The egg production is at a high level, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and watch [76][78]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn and corn starch futures prices declined. The new - season corn harvest is good, but the transportation and farmers' reluctance to sell have affected the supply. The demand for corn is growing slightly, while the supply of corn starch is increasing rapidly, and the inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to wait for the release of supply pressure [79][80]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil prices declined. The CFTC data shows that US funds increased their net short positions. The price of Brent crude oil fell below $60, and the price trend is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and watch [21][22]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices declined and closed below the 5 - day moving average. The inventory in Singapore increased significantly, and the cost of crude oil is weak. The price has a large rebound space. It is recommended to wait and watch [24][25]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices declined. The supply is expected to decrease due to plant maintenance, and the demand is weak. The market is mainly focused on inventory reduction. Investors can look for long - position opportunities [27]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber prices rose. The price is supported by cost and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in supply - side equipment and demand recovery [29][30]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber prices showed a mixed performance. The supply is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [32]. - **PVC**: PVC prices rose. The supply is in excess, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the changes in the supply side [34][35]. - **Urea**: Urea prices remained stable. The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand from the industrial sector is strong. The price is expected to rise slightly [36]. - **PX**: PX prices rose slightly. The short - term PXN spread has been repaired, and the profit has improved. The price may oscillate, and attention should be paid to the changes in crude oil prices and macro - policies [38][39]. - **PTA**: PTA prices declined. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and the processing fee is stable. The price may oscillate, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply pressure is relieved, but the port inventory is increasing. The price may oscillate, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes [41][42]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber prices rose slightly. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. The price may follow the cost and oscillate, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: Bottle chip prices declined. The raw material price support is limited, and the export growth has slowed down. The price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices rose. The supply is at a high level, and the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving. The inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of consumption and the resumption of mining production [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, the macro - economic data continued to decline, and the recovery momentum remained weak. The manufacturing PMI rebounded but was still below the boom - bust line. Industrial production, consumption, and fixed - asset investment growth rates all continued to weaken, and the real estate market was still in a downward trend. Domestic effective demand was insufficient, and the economy faced many challenges [3]. - The implementation of more proactive macro - policies is required to expand domestic demand and optimize supply, promoting both qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy. "Expanding domestic demand and anti - involution" will be long - term and important policy measures [3]. - The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and market sentiment is continuously improving. Despite the twists and turns, the macro - economy and asset prices in 2025 are expected to continue the upward - repair trend [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Manufacturing PMI - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the boom - bust line. Large - scale enterprise PMI decreased, while medium and small - scale enterprise PMIs increased [4]. - Among the 5 classification indexes of manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index was above the critical point, the production index was at the critical point, and the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below the critical point [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5% in November, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry business activity index increased, while the service industry business activity index decreased [7]. 2. CPI and PPI - In November 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. The PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The core inflation continued to improve [8][10]. - The anti - involution policy has achieved continuous results, and the PPI is in an upward - repair trend. The PPI year - on - year growth rate is expected to turn positive in 2026 [12]. 3. Import and Export - In November, China's total import and export value was 549.03 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth of 4.3%. Exports were 330.35 billion US dollars, up 5.9% year - on - year, and imports were 218.67 billion US dollars, up 1.9% year - on - year, with a trade surplus of 111.68 billion US dollars [13]. - Exports to the EU rebounded significantly, while exports to the US were gradually replaced by those to ASEAN. China's exports have shown strong resilience, and the real risk for foreign trade lies in the potential decline in global demand [16]. 4. Credit and Money Supply - At the end of November 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.5%. The growth rates of both M1 and M2 declined, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed [18][23]. - Resident and enterprise credit demand was weak. Resident short - term and long - term loans decreased significantly, and enterprise short - and long - term loans were at a low level, with a significant increase in bill financing [19][21]. 5. Industrial Production, Consumption, and Investment - In November, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, but the growth rate continued to decline, especially in sectors such as home appliances, furniture, and automobiles [24][26]. - From January to November, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, with declines in private fixed - asset investment, real estate development investment, and infrastructure investment [28]. 6. Real Estate Market - From January to November, the sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased by 7.8% and 11.1% year - on - year respectively, and the decline accelerated in November. Real estate new construction, construction, and completion also decreased [31][33]. - The real estate market is in the process of bottoming out and transforming. Although there are fluctuations, the year - on - year decline in sales and prices is narrowing, and the de - stocking effect is emerging. The first half of 2026 is expected to be a critical period for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different futures products have different trends and investment suggestions [6][9][13] - For treasury bonds, there is still some pressure, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [6][7][8] - For stock index futures, the volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10] - For precious metals, they are expected to continue the upward trend, and investors can wait and see for long - position opportunities [13][14] - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, they are expected to be weak in the medium - term, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [15] - For iron ore, it may experience a correction, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [17][18] - For coking coal and coke, there are signs of stabilizing after falling, and investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities at low levels [20] - For ferroalloys, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels after the spot loss expands [23] - For crude oil, the market is uncertain, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [25][26] - For fuel oil, it has a large rebound space, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [27][28] - For polyolefins, the polyethylene fundamentals are still weak, but investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [29][30][31] - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to oscillate [32][33] - For natural rubber, the market may show an oscillating trend [34][35] - For PVC, pay attention to changes in the supply side [36] - For urea, the downward space is limited [37][38] - For PX, it may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors should be vigilant about crude oil changes [39] - For PTA, it may oscillate, and investors should pay attention to oil price changes [40] - For ethylene glycol, it may oscillate, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41][42] - For short - fiber, it may oscillate following the cost, and investors should control risks [43] - For bottle chips, it is expected to oscillate following the cost, and investors should control risks [44] - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to consumption sustainability and mine restart progress [45] - For copper, be vigilant about the risk of a technical correction [46][47] - For aluminum, it may continue to oscillate at a high level [48][49][50] - For zinc, be cautious about chasing up [51][52] - For lead, it may continue the oscillating market [53][54] - For tin, it is expected to oscillate and be stronger [55] - For nickel, it is expected to oscillate [56] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [57][58][59] - For palm oil, it should be temporarily observed [60][61] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, they should be temporarily observed [61][62] - For cotton, it is expected to run strongly [63][64][66] - For sugar, it is expected to run weakly and oscillate [67][68][69] - For apples, the price is expected to run strongly [70][71] - For live pigs, continue to follow the marginal changes in consumption caused by subsequent cooling and consider waiting and seeing [71][72] - For eggs, consider waiting and seeing [73][74][75] - For corn and starch, the selling pressure in the harvest season is expected to continue, and the demand maintains a slight growth trend [76][77] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank carried out 130.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 8.6 billion yuan on the day [5] - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond futures are expected to have some pressure [6][7][8] Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the domestic asset valuation is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10] Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose 1.29%, and the silver main contract fell 0.66%. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the central bank's gold - buying behavior and the expected Fed rate - cut are beneficial to precious metals. They are expected to continue the upward trend, and investors can wait and see for long - position opportunities [11][13][14] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed a weak oscillation. The medium - term price is dominated by industry supply - demand logic. The demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is obvious. They are expected to be weak in the medium - term, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may experience a correction. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [17][18] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded. The supply and demand are weak, but there are signs of stabilizing after falling. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities at low levels [20] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts rose. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. The overall surplus continues. Investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels after the spot loss expands [22][23] Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated at a low level. The CFTC data shows that US funds increased net short positions, and the situation of the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers and the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation make the crude oil trend uncertain. The main contract should be temporarily observed [24][25][26] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil rebounded significantly. The Asian spot supply is sufficient, and the cost - end crude oil is weak. It has a large rebound space, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [27][28] Polyolefins - The previous trading day, the market sentiment was boosted. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. The polyethylene fundamentals are still weak, but investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [29][30][31] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. It is currently supported by cost and demand, and the subsequent supply and demand changes need to be concerned. It is expected to oscillate [32][33] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract showed a mixed trend. The supply and demand are both affected by multiple factors, and the market is expected to oscillate [34][35] PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. The supply exceeds demand, and the downward space is limited. Pay attention to the supply - side changes [36] Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell slightly. The supply is stable, and the demand is mixed. The price is expected to rise slightly in a narrow range, and the downward space is limited [37][38] PX - The previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The PXN spread has been repaired, the short - process profit has improved, and the start - up rate has declined slightly. It may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors should be vigilant about crude oil changes [39] PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA main contract fell. The supply is stable, the demand is slightly weak, and the processing fee is stable. It may oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to oil price changes [40] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply pressure has been alleviated, but the port inventory has increased. It may oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41][42] Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand changes little, and it may follow the cost to oscillate. Investors should control risks [43] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract fell. The raw material price support is limited, the load is stable, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected to follow the cost to oscillate, and investors should control risks [44] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is gradually being depleted. Pay attention to consumption sustainability and mine restart progress [45] Copper - The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The macro - economic data is not as expected, the supply is expected to tighten, and the demand has weakened. Be vigilant about the risk of a technical correction [46][47] Aluminum - The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts fell. The alumina supply is in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is restricted. It may continue to oscillate at a high level [48][49][50] Zinc - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell. The supply is decreasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is decreasing. Be cautious about chasing up [51][52] Lead - The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract fell. The supply is shrinking, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a low level. It may continue the oscillating market [53][54] Tin - The previous trading day, the tin main contract fell. The supply is tight, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate and be stronger [55] Nickel - The previous trading day, the nickel main contract fell. The supply is in surplus, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is expected to oscillate [56] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower, the domestic soybean supply is loose, and the demand maintains a slight growth. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [57][58][59] Palm Oil - The previous trading day, the palm oil market was affected by multiple factors such as the US bio - fuel policy and Indian imports. It should be temporarily observed [60][61] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil were affected by the US bio - fuel policy and domestic imports. They should be temporarily observed [61][62] Cotton - The previous trading day, the cotton futures showed mixed trends. The global and US cotton inventories are expected to increase, the domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is flat. It is expected to run strongly [63][64][66] Sugar - The previous trading day, the sugar futures fell. India has a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic new sugar supply pressure is increasing. It is expected to run weakly and oscillate [67][68][69] Apples - The previous trading day, the apple futures fell sharply. The current inventory is low, and the new - season output and quality have declined. The price is expected to run strongly [70][71] Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the live - pig price showed regional differences. The consumption is improving, but the large - weight pigs are slowly released. Continue to follow the marginal changes in consumption caused by subsequent cooling and consider waiting and seeing [71][72] Eggs - The previous trading day, the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. Consider waiting and seeing [73][74][75] Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn and starch futures fell. The new - season corn in the northern main producing areas has a bumper harvest, the short - term collection volume is low, and the demand maintains a slight growth. The selling pressure in the harvest season is expected to continue [76][77]

Report Overview - Title: "Fed Continues to Ease, but Future Rate Cut Pace May Slow - Interpretation of the Fed's December Meeting" [1] - Researcher: Wan Liang - Report Date: December 12, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Fed continued to cut interest rates in December, but there are internal differences regarding inflation and the labor market, and the willingness to continue cutting rates is low. In the long - term, the Fed is expected to continue the rate - cut path, but the pace may slow down without further support from labor market and inflation data. The US economy is not in recession but shows signs of weakening, and its future depends on the sustainability of the AI narrative. Different asset classes are expected to have diverse price trends [9][10][16]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 December Fed Meeting Highlights - **Interest Rate Decision**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75% on December 11, the third rate cut this year. The vote was 9 - 3, with different views between hawks and doves [3]. - **Economic Projections**: The economic growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were revised upward by 0.1pct, 0.5pct, and 0.1pct respectively. The unemployment rate forecast for 2027 was revised down by 0.1pct, and the core PCE forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were revised down by 0.1pct [4]. - **Rate Dot Plot**: The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026 is 3.4%, and 3.1% in 2027, suggesting one 25 - basis - point rate cut each year [5]. - **Powell's Remarks**: Powell said that "the next move will be a rate hike" is not a basic assumption. The labor market is cooling gradually, inflation in non - tariff areas has made progress, and the end of the government shutdown in October - November led to an upward revision of the 2026 growth forecast [7][8]. 3.2 Price Trends of Major Asset Classes - **Positive Market Reaction**: After the Fed's dovish statement, US bond yields fell, US stocks rose, the dollar declined, precious metals and some commodities like oil and copper increased, while Bitcoin and Ethereum had mixed performances [11][12]. 3.3 Outlook for the US Economy and Fed's Monetary Policy - **Economic Situation**: The US economy is weakening but not in recession. The labor market is slowing, inflation has some resilience, and the economy depends on the AI narrative [14][16]. - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The Fed is expected to continue cutting rates, and the number of rate cuts in 2026 is expected to exceed 50 basis points [16]. 3.4 Views on Future Asset Trends - **US Stocks**: The Fed's rate - cut expectations and the high - growth of emerging industries boost optimism, but risks are accumulating, and future volatility may increase [17]. - **US Treasury Bonds**: Short - term yields have declined, while long - term yields are constrained. If the economy slows further, both short - and long - term yields may fall [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold has long - term value but may face short - term correction risks. Silver is more affected by speculation and liquidity [17]. - **Commodities**: Global - priced commodities are rising, while domestic - priced commodities are weak and need "anti - involution" policies [18]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The dollar may be in a long - term downward cycle, and the RMB is expected to enter an appreciation channel [18]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Although the macro - economy has limited recovery momentum, Chinese equity assets are promising in the long - term, and the volatility center of index futures is expected to rise [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased, and different futures varieties have different trends and investment strategies [7] - For bonds, it is expected that Treasury bond futures will still face some pressure, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [7][8] - For stocks, it is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [10][11] - For precious metals, they are expected to continue the upward trend, and investors can wait and see for now to look for long - entry opportunities [12][13] - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, the medium - term price weakness may be difficult to change, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13] - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [15] - For coking coal and coke, the weakness has not been reversed, and investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low levels [17] - For ferroalloys, after a decline, investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [20] - For crude oil, the trend is uncertain, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [22][23] - For fuel oil, the cost - end crude oil price dominates, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [25][26] - For polyolefins, they should be temporarily observed [28] - For synthetic rubber, it will run in a volatile manner [30] - For natural rubber, investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [32] - For PVC, investors should pay attention to changes in the supply side [34] - For urea, the downward space is limited [36] - For PX, it may be adjusted in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and macro - policy changes [38] - For PTA, it may run in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [39] - For ethylene glycol, it may be under pressure in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41] - For staple fiber, it may follow the cost to run in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost to run in a volatile manner, and investors should pay attention to controlling risks [43] - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption and the resumption progress of the mine end [45] - For copper, it will run strongly [47] - For aluminum, it will be adjusted in a volatile manner [50] - For zinc, investors should be cautious about chasing up [52] - For lead, it will run within a range [54] - For tin, it is expected to run strongly in a volatile manner [56] - For nickel, it will run in a volatile manner [57] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities in the low - cost support range [59] - For palm oil, investors can consider going long on pullbacks [61] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors can consider short - term long positions in the near - term contracts and pay attention to setting stop - losses [64] - For cotton, it is recommended to wait and see [68] - For sugar, it will run in a volatile manner [72] - For apples, the price is expected to run strongly [74] - For live pigs, it is recommended to wait and see [75] - For eggs, it is recommended to wait and see for now [79] - For corn and starch, corn starch may follow the corn market, and investors should wait for the release of supply pressure after transportation recovers [82] Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 118.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and the net withdrawal was 62.2 billion yuan on that day [5] - Due to the relatively low Treasury bond yield, the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, the continuous rise of core inflation, and the increase in market risk preference, it is expected that Treasury bond futures will still face some pressure, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [7][8] Stock Indexes - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The domestic sales of new energy vehicles in November increased year - on - year and month - on - month [10] - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong and corporate profit growth is at a low level, the domestic asset valuation is low, and there is room for valuation repair. The market sentiment has heated up, and it is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [10][11] Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver closed up. The complex global trade and financial environment, central banks' gold - buying behavior, and the expected continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are all beneficial to precious metals, which are expected to continue the upward trend. Investors can wait and see for now to look for long - entry opportunities [12][13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply side has over - capacity, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The price weakness may be difficult to change. The trend of hot - rolled coil is similar to that of rebar, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13] Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. Since October, the daily output of molten iron has declined, the import volume of iron ore has increased year - on - year, the port inventory has continued to rise, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. Technically, the rebound may encounter resistance, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [15] Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. For coking coal, the impact of safety inspections on production is weakening, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. For coke, the first round of price cuts for spot purchases has been implemented, the supply is stable, and the demand is expected to weaken. Technically, the weakness has not been reversed, and investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low levels [17] Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon closed down. The supply of manganese ore has increased slightly, the cost of ferroalloys has risen, the output of ferroalloys has continued to decline from high levels, the demand is weak, and the overall over - supply situation has eased. After a decline, investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [19][20] Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. The CFTC data shows that the short - selling sentiment of funds has weakened. The situation of the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers and the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations has made the crude oil trend highly uncertain. The main contract should be temporarily observed [21][22][23] Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and hit a new low for the year. The Asian fuel oil spot delivery period is unstable, which is beneficial to the fuel oil price. The cost - end crude oil price dominates, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [24][25][26] Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the quotes in the Hangzhou PP market showed mixed results. The price of LLDPE in the Yuyao market fell. The demand for polypropylene products has shown a stable and slightly rising trend under the drive of policies and seasonal demand. Polyolefins should be temporarily observed [27][28] Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber closed up. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the supply - demand pattern is in a weak balance. The cost of butadiene rubber is low, and the profit has improved significantly. The supply is expected to increase in December, and the demand from tire enterprises has recovered. It will run in a volatile manner [29][30] Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber showed mixed results. It is expected that the short - term natural rubber market will show a range - bound consolidation. The overseas supply has recovered, the domestic supply is tight, the demand from tire enterprises has recovered, and the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation trend. Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [31][32] PVC - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC closed down. The current oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited, and it is necessary to wait for the improvement of the fundamentals. Pay attention to the export and supply reduction after the festival. Investors should pay attention to changes in the supply side [33][34] Urea - On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea closed down. It is expected that the urea market will rise slightly in a narrow range this week. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from downstream products has changed differently, and the profit has improved. The downward space is limited [35][36] PX - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX closed up. The PXN spread is relatively strong in the short term, the start - up rate is stable, the import has decreased, the spot liquidity is tight, and the cost - end crude oil has corrected. It may be adjusted in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and macro - policy changes [37][38] PTA - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA closed up. The supply is basically stable, the demand has decreased slightly, the processing fee has continued to decline, and the inventory is at a low level. The cost - end crude oil oscillates, and the support from the raw material PX price is limited. It may run in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [39] Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol closed down. The overall start - up rate has decreased, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, the pre - arrival volume at the port has increased, and the demand support has weakened. It may be under pressure in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40][41] Staple Fiber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of staple fiber closed down. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand has not changed much, and the cost - driving force is limited. It may follow the cost to run in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips closed down. The processing fee has been adjusted. The supply load has decreased, the downstream consumption is in the off - season, and the export has rebounded slightly. The main logic lies in the cost end, and it is expected to follow the cost to run in a volatile manner, and investors should pay attention to controlling risks [43] Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed up. The production of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, the consumption in the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved, the inventory has gradually decreased, and investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption and the resumption progress of the mine end [44][45] Copper - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed up. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates, and the dollar index fell. The growth of copper concentrate is weak, the supply of electrolytic copper is expected to tighten, and the consumption is weak. The inventory has decreased. Driven by the dovish interest - rate policy and tight inventory in non - US regions, the copper price will run strongly [46][47] Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed up, and the main contract of alumina closed down. The supply of alumina is in excess, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has limited room for growth, the consumption has entered the off - season, and the inventory has remained flat. The alumina price is suppressed by the oversupply, and the aluminum price will be adjusted in a volatile manner [48][49][50] Zinc - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed up. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has fallen rapidly, the production of refined zinc has decreased, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the inventory has decreased. Driven by the liquidity released by the Federal Reserve, the zinc price has risen, and investors should be cautious about chasing up [51][52] Lead - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed down. The processing fee of lead concentrate has continued to fall, the production enthusiasm of smelting enterprises may be affected, the production of recycled lead may decrease slightly, the downstream procurement rhythm has slowed down, and the inventory has decreased. The lead price has poor rebound momentum and will run within a range [53][54] Tin - On the previous trading day, the main contract of tin closed up. The supply of tin ore is tight, the production resumption progress in Wa State is slow, the smelting cost is high, the supply of imports is uncertain, and the overall supply is tight. The demand has certain resilience. The inventory of refined tin has decreased, and it is expected to run strongly in a volatile manner [55][56] Nickel - On the previous trading day, the main contract of nickel closed down. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates, and the macro - sentiment may continue to improve. The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of nickel ore may be affected, the downstream nickel - iron plants are in losses, and the consumption is not optimistic. The refined nickel inventory is at a relatively high level, and it will run in a volatile manner [57] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the main contract of soybean meal remained flat, and the main contract of soybean oil closed up. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower than last year, the soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains at a high level, the inventory of soybean meal and soybean oil has decreased, the consumption of soybean oil has improved slightly, and the consumption of soybean meal is expected to grow moderately. The cost support for soybean products is good, and investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities in the low - cost support range [58][59] Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil closed slightly up, supported by the rise of Dalian soybean oil futures. The Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased to a six - and - a - half - year high, the export has decreased, the domestic palm oil import has increased, and the inventory is at the middle level in the past seven years. Palm oil may consider going long on pullbacks [60][61] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The price of Canadian rapeseed closed up, affected by the rise of related varieties and the decline of US soybean oil and crude oil. The global and Canadian rapeseed production and inventory are expected to change. The domestic import of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has changed, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. In the near - term contracts, investors can consider short - term long positions and pay attention to setting stop - losses [62][63][64] Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton oscillated up, and overnight overseas cotton fell slightly. The US cotton export sales and production and inventory estimates have changed. The global cotton production and inventory estimates have also changed. The domestic textile and clothing export has shown a stable performance, the cotton planting area and output have increased, and the new cotton picking is almost over. It is recommended to wait and see [65][66][68] Sugar - On the previous trading day, Zheng sugar rebounded with a reduction in positions, and overnight overseas raw sugar fell. The number of sugar mills in Guangxi that have started crushing has decreased, the sugar production in India has increased, the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region has increased, and the sugar export in Brazil has decreased slightly but is still large. The domestic market will face the dual pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar, and the 01 contract has certain support. It will run in a volatile manner [69][70][72] Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The inventory in apple cold storage has decreased, the new - season apple production has decreased, and the quality has declined. The price is expected to run strongly [73][74] Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs remained flat. The pig price in the northern region was stable with a slight increase, and that in the southern region showed mixed results. The supply of pigs has increased slightly, the consumption in the southwest region has improved slightly, and the inventory of frozen products has increased slightly. In the short term, pay attention to the slaughter volume of farms and the consumption change after the temperature drops. It is recommended to wait and see [74][75] Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas remained flat. The cost of eggs has increased, and the breeding profit is low. The inventory of laying hens

2025 年 12 月 11 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.30%报 112.790 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 108.030 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 105.825 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.04%报 102.456 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 10 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1898 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40%，投标量 1898 亿元，中标量 1898 亿元。Wind 数据显示，当日 793 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 1105 亿元。 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 18 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | ...