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供应压力增加,价格整体下行
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 14:30
研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2026 年 1 月 28 日 【生猪日报】供应压力增加 价格整体下行 今 日 昨 日 变 化 今 日 昨 日 变 化 河南(0) 12.94 13.18 -0.24 山西(-100) 12.91 12.97 -0.06 湖北(0) 12.59 12.80 -0.21 辽宁(-300) 12.84 12.84 0 安徽(200) 13.06 13.23 -0.17 吉林(-300) 12.70 12.72 -0.02 湖南(100) 12.49 12.68 -0.19 黑龙江 12.66 12.63 0.03 四川(-100) 12.47 12.67 -0.20 福建(500) 12.74 12.90 -0.16 江西(100) 12.34 12.43 -0.09 广东(500) 12.40 12.87 -0.47 山东(200) 13.07 13.22 -0.15 广西(-200) 12.19 12.38 -0.19 江苏(500) 13.05 13.25 -0.20 云南(-600) 11.87 11.97 -0.1 河北(100) 13.01 13.22 -0.21 贵 ...
粕类日报:天气扰动增加,粕类继续偏强-20260128
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 14:30
Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Meal Daily Report" [1] - Date: January 28, 2026 [1][3] Group 2: Researcher Information - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Futures practice certificate number: F3045719 [2] - Investment consulting certificate number: Z0015458 [2] - Contact information: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 3: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal: Futures prices in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao showed increases; spot basis decreased by 10 in different regions [3] - For rapeseed meal: Futures prices in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi showed increases; spot basis in Guangdong and Guangxi increased by 4, while in Nantong it decreased by 26 [3] Monthly Spread - For soybean meal: 15 - spread decreased by 3, 59 - spread decreased by 8, 91 - spread increased by 11 [3] - For rapeseed meal: 15 - spread decreased by 15, 59 - spread increased by 10, 91 - spread increased by 5 [3] Cross - Variety Futures Spread - Bean - rapeseed 01 spread increased slightly, bean - rapeseed 09 spread increased, and oil - meal ratio 01 also increased slightly [3] Spot Spread - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased by 6, the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal increased by 30, and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal increased by 6 [3] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean market was strong due to dry weather after a short - term decline; South American market quotes rose slightly; the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets were also strong; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed; the near - month spread of soybean meal decreased, while that of rapeseed meal was strong [3] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - US soybean: Carry - over stocks were raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market estimate of 292 million bushels; quarterly grain stocks were also bearish, reaching 3.29 billion bushels, higher than the market estimate of 3.25 billion bushels; exports improved, but the supply - demand was still relatively loose [4] - South American market: Brazil's new crop was in good condition; exports were expected to increase, but it was subject to actual yield changes; Argentina's soybean exports and crushing increased [4] Domestic Market - Soybean meal: The domestic spot supply tightened; the oil mill operating rate increased but the overall quantity decreased; the inventory decreased; the market transaction increased; the demand was good; as of January 23, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.1021 million tons, the operating rate was 57.83%, the soybean inventory was 6.5899 million tons, a decrease of 4.12% from last week and an increase of 45.8% year - on - year; the soybean meal inventory was 898,600 tons, a decrease of 5.13% from last week and an increase of 104.55% year - on - year [7] - Rapeseed meal: The demand weakened; the oil mill operation basically stopped; the rapeseed supply was low; the granular rapeseed meal inventory was still high; as of January 23, the rapeseed inventory in coastal areas was 60,000 tons, unchanged from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from last week [7] Group 6: Logic Analysis - US soybean: High inventory pressure and high South American production, but the downward speed may slow down due to improved demand [8] - Brazil: Good weather, increased production forecast, and price pressure [8] - Argentina: Strong due to dry weather, but the driving effect may be limited [8] - Domestic market: Uncertainty in soybean supply, support in the spot market, limited upside space; in the long - term, the supply is loose and there is price pressure [8] - Rapeseed meal: High import price, expected pressure after increased supply, the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen, but the South American weather may support the price [8] - Spread: The near - month spread of soybean meal decreased, and that of rapeseed meal was strong [8] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Limited upside space, suggest short - term observation and short - selling at high points [9] - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread [9] - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [9] Group 8: Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profit from Brazil showed different changes in different shipping months, with some decreases and some increases [10]
银河期货航运日报-20260128
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 11:53
研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2026 年 1 月 28 日 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数(欧线) 期货从业证号: F3084078 投资咨询证号: Z0018656 联系方式: :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数(欧线)日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2602 | 1,719.0 | 1.5 | 0.09% | 370.0 | -62.40% | 3,186.0 | -8.84% | | EC2604 | 1,229.0 | 35.1 | 2.94% | 38,983.0 | 55.66% | 40,146.0 | 3.88% | | EC2606 | 1,493.2 | 51.0 | 3.54% | 4,954.0 | 93.06% | 9,602.0 | 21.36% | ...
银河期货花生日报-20260128
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 10:10
研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 1 月 28 日 | 期货从业证号: | | 第一部分 | 数据 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | F03107370 | | 花生数据日报 | | | 投资咨询证号: | | 期货盘面 | | | Z0018389 | 期货 | | | | | PK604 | | | 研究员:刘大勇 联系方式: :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/1/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 7984 | 18 | 0.23% | 15,379 | -44.44% | 41,548 | 5.70% | | PK610 | | 8246 | 18 | 0.22% | 68 | -59.28% | 2,740 | - ...
银河期货铁矿石日报-20260128
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 10:03
研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2026 年 01 月 28 日 1/ 5 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 752.5 | 757.0 | -4.5 | I01-I05 | -30.5 | -31.0 | 0.5 | | DCE05 | 783.0 | 788.0 | -5.0 | I05-I09 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 0.0 | | DCE09 | 764.5 | 769.5 | -5.0 | I09-I01 | 12.0 | 12.5 | -0.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 792 | 789 | 3 | 860 | 95 | 64 | 83 | | 纽曼粉 | 792 | 789 | 3 | 866 | 101 | 70 | 89 | | 麦克粉 | 789 | 789 | 0 | 871 | 106 | 75 | ...
螺纹热卷日报-20260128
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 10:03
研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 01 月 28 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员:戚纯怡 期货从业证号: F03113636 投资咨询证号: Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面延续低位震荡,现货成交整体一般偏弱,价格较昨日持稳或微跌, 刚需低价拿货为主。本周布谷网公布,建材增产而热卷减产;螺纹库存持续累积,而 热轧总体仍然去库,总体厂库压力小于社库;本周下游工地资金到位情况有所改善, 导致建材表需回升;近期钢材出口出现下滑,但年前制造业补库需求仍存,叠加产量 下滑,热卷需求同样上升。1 月煤矿有所增产,蒙煤进口快速增加,但钢厂补库仍然持 续,预计 2 月煤矿或陆续减产;而 pb 粉结构性短缺问题尚未解决,1 季度同样为铁矿 传统发运淡季,钢厂存在补库刚需,成本存在支撑;但海外需求出现季节性回落,钢 材出口下滑,而近期铁水持续复产,也影响了钢材进一步上涨的空间。预计节前钢材 仍然跟随市场情绪维持震荡走势,波动率偏低。继续关注宏观消息对盘面的影响。后 续继续关注煤矿安 ...
铁合金日报-20260128
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 10:03
研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 1 月 28 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员:周涛 期货从业证号: F03134259 投资咨询证号: Z0021009 联系方式: :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5632 | 28 | 76 | 122823 | 10420 | 185904 | -13253 | | SM主力合约 | 5832 | 14 | 46 | 139854 | 35909 | 374987 | 3539 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5350 | 0 | 0 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5670 | -10 | -10 | | ...
银河期货股指期货数据日报-20260128
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 09:35
Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: January 28, 2026 [2] IM Futures Market Summary - The underlying index, CSI 1000, closed at 8399.79, up 0.21%. The IM main contract rose 0.16% to close at 8377.8 points [4]. - The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 194,080 lots, down 68,320 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 382,766 lots, down 15,637 lots from the previous day [5]. - The main contract was at a discount of 21.99 points to the spot, up 2.96 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -1.84% [5]. Contract - Specific Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 1000 | 8399.79 | 0.21% | 34,966 | -4% | 627.4 billion | 0% | - | - | - | | IM2602 | 8407.40 | 0.22% | 33,363 | -24% | 5.59 billion | -23% | 56,743 | -4,390 | 1.14 billion | | IM2603 | 8377.80 | 0.16% | 114,744 | -28% | 19.16 billion | -27% | 180,338 | -11,585 | 3.63 billion | | IM2606 | 8242.60 | 0.31% | 31,617 | -26% | 5.19 billion | -25% | 107,190 | -2,172 | 2.12 billion | | IM2609 | 8075.00 | 0.30% | 14,356 | -17% | 2.31 billion | -16% | 38,495 | 2,510 | 750 million | [4] Main Seats Data - For different contracts (IM2602, IM2603, etc.), detailed data on the top - ranking members in terms of trading volume, long positions, and short positions, as well as their changes from the previous day, are provided [16][18][20] IF Futures Market Summary - The underlying index, CSI 300, closed at 4717.99, up 0.26%. The IF main contract rose 0.07% to close at 4732.8 points [21]. - The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 142,902 lots, down 62 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 325,948 lots, up 15,622 lots from the previous day [22]. - The main contract was at a premium of 14.81 points to the spot, up 2.3 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of 2.2% [22]. Contract - Specific Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4717.99 | 0.26% | 38,226 | - | 82.94 billion | - | - | - | - | | IF2602 | 4727.80 | 0.08% | 32,633 | -23% | - | - | 43,478 | - | 700 million | | IF2603 | 4732.80 | 0.07% | 84,387 | -4% | 11.98 billion | -3% | 185,840 | 7,628 | 3.17 billion | | IF2606 | 4716.80 | 0.12% | 18,810 | -8% | 2.66 billion | -8% | 75,464 | 1,638 | 1.28 billion | | IF2609 | 4670.20 | 0.08% | 7,072 | -16% | 900 million | - | 21,166 | 2 | 360 million | [21] Main Seats Data - For different contracts (IF2602, IF2603, etc.), detailed data on the top - ranking members in terms of trading volume, long positions, and short positions, as well as their changes from the previous day, are provided [33][35][36] IC Futures Market Summary - The underlying index, CSI 500, closed at 8601.16, up 0.61%. The IC main contract rose 0.68% to close at 8622 points [38]. - The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 170,659 lots, down 40,713 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 342,398 lots, down 904 lots from the previous day [39]. - The main contract was at a premium of 20.84 points to the spot, up 22.17 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of 1.7% [39]. Contract - Specific Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 500 | 8601.16 | 0.61% | 31,177 | 3% | 61.27 billion | 0% | - | - | - | | IC2602 | 8623.20 | 0.66% | 28,560 | -15% | 4.9 billion | -14% | 45,306 | -2,648 | 940 million | | IC2603 | 8622.00 | 0.68% | 94,115 | -23% | 16.15 billion | -22% | 167,295 | -5,924 | 3.46 billion | | IC2606 | 8574.80 | 1.04% | 37,044 | -11% | 6.31 billion | -9% | 98,677 | 5,130 | 2.03 billion | | IC2609 | 8469.00 | 1.08% | 10,940 | -23% | 1.84 billion | -21% | 31,120 | 2,538 | 630 million | [38] Main Seats Data - For different contracts (IC2602, IC2603, etc.), detailed data on the top - ranking members in terms of trading volume, long positions, and short positions, as well as their changes from the previous day, are provided [51][53][55] IH Futures Market Summary - The underlying index, SSE 50, closed at 3060.56, up 0.27%. The IH main contract fell 0.01% to close at 3069.8 points [57]. - The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 63,381 lots, down 4,488 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 118,402 lots, up 3,905 lots from the previous day [57]. - The main contract was at a premium of 9.24 points to the spot, down 2.37 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of 2.11% [58]. Contract - Specific Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3060.56 | 0.27% | 9,637 | 28% | 25.26 billion | 25% | - | - | - | | IH2602 | 3065.60 | -0.03% | 14,236 | 5% | 1.31 billion | 5% | 17,477 | 942 | 190 million | | IH2603 | 3069.80 | -0.01% | 38,337 | -7% | 3.53 billion | -7% | 67,766 | 1,717 | 750 million | | IH2606 | 3070.00 | -0.13% | 7,689 | -12% | 710 million | -12% | 25,544 | 1,019 | 280 million | | IH2609 | 3046.00 | -0.09% | 3,119 | -28% | 290 million | -28% | 7,615 | 227 | 80 million | [57] Main Seats Data - For different contracts (IH2602, IH2603, etc.), detailed data on the top - ranking members in terms of trading volume, long positions, and short positions, as well as their changes from the previous day, are provided [69][71][73]
玉米淀粉日报-20260128
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 09:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the recent drought in Argentina, the supply pressure has weakened, and it is expected that U.S. corn will oscillate strongly at the bottom. The supply of corn in North China has increased, and the spot price of corn is stable, while that in Northeast China is relatively stable. Farmers' reluctance to sell has begun to ease, and the spot price will remain relatively stable in the short term. The purchase price at northern ports is weak today. The price of wheat in North China is strong, and the price difference between corn in Northeast and North China is widening. Recently, the market has been trading on the increased grain sales in North China before the Spring Festival, and there is still selling pressure on corn in Northeast China later. The rebound space for corn spot is limited, and there is room for a decline in the March corn contract. The short - term outlook for the March starch contract is a weak oscillation [4][6][8]. Summary by Directory Part I: Data - **Futures Market Data**: For corn futures contracts C2601, C2605, and C2509, the closing prices are 2255, 2279, and 2297 respectively, with price changes of 4, - 3, and - 1, and price change rates of 0.18%, - 0.13%, and - 0.04%. For corn starch futures contracts CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509, the closing prices are 2588, 2610, and 2623 respectively, with price changes of 3, 2, and 6, and price change rates of 0.12%, 0.08%, and 0.23% [2]. - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot prices of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, and Zhucheng Xingmao are 2160, 2220, and 2328 respectively, with price changes of 0. The basis values range from - 137 to 153. The spot prices of corn starch in different regions such as Longfeng, COFCO, and Yihai (Heilongjiang) are 2730, 2700, and 2700 respectively, with price changes of 0. The basis values range from 90 to 290 [2]. - **Spread Data**: For corn inter - delivery spreads like C01 - C05, C05 - C09, and C09 - C01, the spreads are - 24, - 18, and 42 respectively, with price changes of 7, - 2, and - 5. For corn starch inter - delivery spreads like CS01 - CS05, CS05 - CS09, and CS09 - CS01, the spreads are - 22, - 13, and 35 respectively, with price changes of 1, - 4, and 3. For cross - variety spreads like CS09 - C09, CS01 - C01, and CS05 - C05, the spreads are 326, 333, and 331 respectively, with price changes of 7, - 1, and 5 [2]. Part II: Market Analysis - **Corn**: The drought in Argentina has led to a bottom - rebound of U.S. corn, but it is still oscillating at the bottom due to global supply pressure. The import profit of foreign corn is rising. The northern port's flat - hatch price has declined, while the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply of corn in North China has decreased, and the spot price is strong. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has narrowed. Wheat and corn are still being auctioned. The price of wheat in North China is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn is large, which makes corn more cost - effective. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The supply of corn in the Northeast is still low, and the price is strong. Farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, and the port inventory is low. The purchase price at northern ports is weak today. The price of the March contract has continued to decline, and the basis of the spot price has strengthened [4][6]. - **Corn Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong is stable. The spot price of corn starch in Shandong is around 2770 yuan, and that in the Northeast is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 102.8 million tons, a decrease of 4.1 million tons from last week, a monthly decline of 6.7%, and a year - on - year decline of 8.0%. The price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. The by - product prices are still strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. Corn prices in North China and the Northeast are stable in the short term. Due to the end of pre - Spring Festival stocking, the spot price of starch is weak, and enterprises are still in the red. The March starch contract has followed the decline of corn, but the short - term decline space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Part III: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: The March U.S. corn contract has support at 420 cents per bushel. Consider establishing long positions in the July and May corn contracts [9]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: Hold off on trading for now [10]. Part IV: Corn Options - **Option Strategy**: Adopt a short - term cumulative put option strategy and conduct rolling operations [11]. Part V: Related Attachments - The attachments include six figures: the northern port's corn flat - hatch price, the basis of the May corn contract, the May - September spread of corn, the May - September spread of corn starch, the basis of the May corn starch contract, and the spread of the May corn starch contract [14][15][19].
铁矿石专题报告:2025年四季度全球四大矿山产销梳理-20260128
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 07:34
黑色板块研发报告 铁矿石专题报告 2026 年 1 月 28 日 2025 年四季度全球四大矿山产销梳理 第一部分 前言概要 银河期货 第 1 页 共 10 页 铁矿石专题报告 2026 年 1 月 28 日 黑色板块研发报告 第二部分 四季度全球铁矿石产销梳理 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2020/06 2020/10 2021/02 2021/06 2021/10 2022/02 2022/06 2022/10 2023/02 2023/06 2023/10 2024/02 2024/06 2024/10 2025/02 2025/06 2025/10 VALE产量 万吨 VALE销量 万吨 产量同比 % 销量同比 % 图 1:VALE 产销统计 图 2:VALE 分品种销量 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2020/06 2020/10 2021/02 2021/06 2021/10 2022/02 2022/06 ...