大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 7 月 10 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/7/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK504 | 7972 | 26 | 0.33% | 6 | 200.00% | 142 | 1.43% | | PK510 | 8188 | 12 | 0.15% | 26,187 | -46.04% | 100,033 | -3.44% | | PK601 | 7970 | 10 | 0.13% | 1,051 | -46.54% | 8,040 | 3.88% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core View - The report presents the daily data of stock index futures including IM, IF, IC, and IH on July 10, 2025, covering their market quotes, trading volume, open interest, basis, and positions of major seats [4][21][39][53] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 IM Index Futures - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the CSI 1000 index was 6406.57, up 0.25%. The main contract IM2509 rose 0.19% to 6231.6 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 168,165 lots, an increase of 5,777 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 333,057 lots, an increase of 11,313 lots [4][5] - **Basis**: The main contract was at a discount of 174.97 points, up 1.5 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -14.23% [5] - **Positions of Major Seats**: In IM2507, the top five trading volume seats were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 29,040 lots. For long positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) held 21,994 lots, and for short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 34,821 lots [17] 3.2 IF Index Futures - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the SSE 300 index was 4010.02, up 0.47%. The main contract IF2509 rose 0.38% to 3972 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 97,027 lots, an increase of 14,938 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 258,020 lots, an increase of 11,835 lots [21][22] - **Basis**: The main contract was at a discount of 38.02 points, up 0.58 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -4.85% [22] - **Positions of Major Seats**: In IF2507, the top five trading volume seats were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 11,334 lots. For long positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) held 9,457 lots, and for short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 13,611 lots [35] 3.3 IC Index Futures - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the CSI 500 index was 5983.05, up 0.50%. The main contract IC2509 rose 0.42% to 5854.2 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 73,407 lots, an increase of 2,623 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 227,469 lots, an increase of 5,291 lots [39][40] - **Basis**: The main contract was at a discount of 128.85 points, up 1.24 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -11.16% [40] - **Positions of Major Seats**: In IC2507, the top five trading volume seats were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 9,878 lots. For long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 15,111 lots, and for short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 16,422 lots [48] 3.4 IH Index Futures - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the SSE 50 index was 2756.93, up 0.62%. The main contract IH2509 rose 0.49% to 2740.4 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 56,248 lots, an increase of 13,869 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 95,486 lots, an increase of 9,632 lots [53] - **Basis**: The main contract was at a discount of 16.53 points, down 0.61 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -3.06% [54] - **Positions of Major Seats**: In IH2507, the top five trading volume seats were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 6,558 lots. For long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) held 4,506 lots, and for short positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) held 5,852 lots [64]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Internationally, with Brazil approaching its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. The selling pressure after the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season has started will drag down the raw sugar price center. The expected increase in Brazilian production and the expected increase in sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere's new season will suppress the raw sugar price. Domestically, the fast sales - to - production ratio may support the sugar price, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar into the domestic market may drag down the sugar price. Considering the recent weak trend of raw sugar, the sugar price will maintain a weak operation in the short term [4]. - Raw sugar is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend in the short term due to the expected global supply - demand surplus, but there may be buying support at lower levels. In China, the faster - than - expected sales - to - production ratio supports the spot price, but due to the short - term weakness of raw sugar, the rising profit of out - of - quota imports, and the upcoming pressure of processed sugar supply, Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: For SR2509, the closing price was 5,805, up 26 (0.46%), with a trading volume of 163,903 (up 15.64%) and an open interest of 298,087 (up 3.77%); for SR2601, the closing price was 5,632, up 26 (0.46%), with a trading volume of 21,265 (up 20.44%) and an open interest of 107,409 (up 2.23%); for SR2511, the closing price was 5,690, up 21 (0.37%), with a trading volume of 23,328 (down 0.21%) and an open interest of 55,383 (up 2.26%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions were as follows: 6120 in Liuzhou, 5895 in Kunming, 6040 in Nanning, 6150 in Bayuquan, 6135 in Rizhao, and 6410 in Xi'an. The price in Kunming increased by 30, and the price in Xi'an increased by 20. The basis in Liuzhou was 430, in Kunming was 205, in Nanning was 350, in Bayuquan was 460, in Rizhao was 445, and in Xi'an was 720 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The SR11 - SR01 spread was 58, down 5; the SR09 - SR11 spread was 115, up 225; the SR09 - SR01 spread was 173, unchanged [3]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price was 4445, the out - of - quota price was 5682, with a spread of 438 compared to Liuzhou, 453 compared to Rizhao, and - 50 compared to the futures market. For Thai imports, the in - quota price was 4494, the out - of - quota price was 5694, with a spread of 426 compared to Liuzhou, 441 compared to Rizhao, and - 62 compared to the futures market [3]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **International**: Brazil's approaching supply peak will lead to global inventory accumulation. The new Brazilian crushing season's selling pressure and production increase expectations, along with the expected increase in the Northern Hemisphere's new - season production, will suppress the raw sugar price. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual production increase [4]. - **Domestic**: The fast sales - to - production ratio supports the sugar price, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar and the weak raw sugar trend will drag down the domestic sugar price in the short term [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Zhengzhou sugar futures will mainly follow the raw sugar price and maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. - **Options**: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market has a relatively loose supply - demand balance. Domestic soybeans face inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the domestic market is influenced by the weak international market. In the oil sector, palm oil is in a production - inventory increase phase, and domestic oils have different supply - demand characteristics. Corn has a complex domestic supply - demand situation, and its futures are expected to bottom - oscillate. The hog market is expected to be volatile under a loose supply - demand situation. Peanuts may be short - term strong but face long - term downward pressure. The egg market has different trends for different contracts. Apples are expected to be volatile in the short term. Cotton is expected to have limited upward space [5][9][16][25][30][35][42][47][52] Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.12% to 1013.75 cents/bushel, and CBOT meal index fell 0.21% to 280.4 dollars/short ton [2] - **Information**: USDA export sales and monthly supply - demand report have certain forecasts. Brazilian farmers sold less soybeans in 2025, and domestic oil mill data shows supply - demand status [2][3] - **Logic**: International and domestic soybean markets have a loose supply - demand balance [5] - **Strategy**: Low - point long positions, MRM09 spread expansion, and option watching [6] Sugar - **External Market**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract up 0.41 (2.54%) to 16.54 cents/pound [7] - **Information**: Forecasts for Brazilian sugar production are down year - on - year. Import costs and profits are provided, and domestic sugar prices are adjusted [8] - **Logic**: International sugar is weak, and domestic sugar follows the international trend [9] - **Strategy**: Zheng sugar oscillates, spread watching, and using out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11] Oils - **External Market**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly [13] - **Information**: Forecasts for global soybean and EU rapeseed production. Domestic oil trading volume increased [14][15] - **Logic**: Palm oil is in production - inventory increase, and domestic oils have different supply - demand situations [16] - **Strategy**: Short - term oscillation, spread and option watching [17][18][19] Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market**: CBOT corn futures stabilized [21] - **Information**: Corn inventory and trading volume data in domestic ports, and processing data [23] - **Logic**: US corn has limited downside, and domestic corn has a complex supply - demand situation [25] - **Strategy**: Long on 09 corn, spread operation, and using call - writing strategy for those with spot [26][27] Hogs - **Information**: Hog, piglet, and sow prices are provided, and relevant agricultural product price indices are given [30] - **Logic**: Hog prices are supported but expected to be volatile [30] - **Strategy**: Short - side thinking, LH91 positive spread, and option watching [31] Peanuts - **Information**: Peanut and peanut product prices, and inventory data are provided [33][34] - **Logic**: Peanuts may be short - term strong but face long - term downward pressure [35] - **Strategy**: Short on 10 peanuts at high points, spread watching, and selling pk510 - C - 8800 options [36][38] Eggs - **Information**: Egg prices, production, and sales data are provided [40] - **Logic**: Different egg contracts have different trends [42] - **Strategy**: Long on the 9 - month contract, spread watching, and selling put options [43] Apples - **Information**: Apple inventory, import - export, and price data are provided [45] - **Logic**: Apples are expected to be short - term oscillatory [47] - **Strategy**: Low - buying and high - selling on AP10, spread watching, and selling put options [48] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market**: ICE US cotton rose [49] - **Information**: China's cotton inventory data and spot trading information are provided [50] - **Logic**: US cotton may be short - term weak but has potential positives, and Zheng cotton has limited upward space [51][52] - **Strategy**: Oscillation for US cotton, short - term slightly strong but limited upward space for Zheng cotton, spread watching, and selling put options [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The price of pulp has declined, resulting in insufficient cost support and weak paper prices. The expected trend of offset printing paper next week is generally stable with a slight downward bias [1][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Price**: The average tax - inclusive price of 70g offset paper enterprises is 5,028.6 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The average tax - inclusive price of 157g coated paper enterprises is 5,675.0 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [5][32]. - **Supply**: Offset paper production is 195,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons or 3.0% from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 54.6%, a decrease of 1.8% from the previous period. Coated paper production is 77,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons or 1.3% from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 56.6%, an increase of 0.4% from the previous period [5][13][19]. - **Demand**: The release of publishing tender orders is limited, and sporadic low prices suppress market expectations. The release of autumn publishing orders for offset paper is slow, and social orders are still sluggish. The overall terminal consumption fails to meet expectations, and the downstream printing factory's operating level is not high [5][6]. - **Cost**: The average tax - inclusive spot price of broad - leaf pulp is 4,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous period. The average tax - inclusive spot price of coniferous pulp is 6,079 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous period. The average tax - inclusive spot price of natural pulp is 5,043 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.8% from the previous period. The average tax - inclusive spot price of chemimechanical pulp is 3,900 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period [5][37]. - **Strategy**: The expected trend of offset printing paper next week is generally stable with a slight downward bias [7]. Core Logic Analysis - **Supply**: The profitability of the offset paper industry is still low, with factory conversion occurring, and the market supply tends to be stable. The profitability of the coated paper industry is relatively stable, and other factories mostly schedule production as planned, with little change in capacity utilization, which remains at a low level [6][19]. - **Demand**: The release of autumn publishing orders for offset paper is slow, social orders are still sluggish, overall terminal consumption fails to meet expectations, the downstream printing factory's operating level is not high, and users' consumption of base paper inventory is slow, with no obvious intention to stock up in large quantities. Under the impact of electronic media, social demand for coated paper is still weak, and users mostly make rigid purchases [6][23]. - **Cost**: Rumors of low foreign prices for broad - leaf pulp are spreading again, intensifying the bearish sentiment among industry players and putting pressure on the pulp market trend. The decline in pulp prices has led to a stable and slightly stronger gross profit margin for coated paper [6][19]. Weekly Data Tracking - **Offset Paper Supply**: The production volume has decreased, and the capacity utilization rate has declined. The profitability of offset paper has improved due to the decline in pulp raw material prices [13]. - **Offset Paper Inventory**: The overall on - site inventory has continued to decline slightly but remains at a high level in recent years. The inventory of offset paper production enterprises has decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous period [14][16]. - **Coated Paper Supply**: The production volume has increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate has increased slightly. The gross profit margin of coated paper is stable and slightly stronger due to the decline in pulp prices [19]. - **Coated Paper Inventory**: The on - site inventory of coated paper has decreased slightly. The inventory of coated paper production enterprises has decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous period [20][23]. - **Paper Prices**: The average prices of offset paper and coated paper enterprises have remained stable [32]. - **Imported Pulp Prices**: The prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, and natural pulp have declined, while the price of chemimechanical pulp has remained unchanged [37].

交割逻辑支撑盘面，关注仓单注册情况 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 价格：现货价格：日照港3.9米中A辐射松原木750元/方，较上周上涨10元/方，周环比上涨1.35%，太仓港4米中A辐射松原木760元 /方，周环比持平。供应：原木周到港：本周新西兰原木预计到港总量约41.6万方，较上周增加5.7976万方；本期针叶原木总库存，345 万方，较上周增加6万方，周环比增加1.77%；需求：2022年1-5月，全国房屋新开工面积5.2亿平方米，同比下降30.6%。本期13港原木 日均出库量5.98万方，周环比下跌5.23%，月环比下跌2.61%。进口成本：本月辐射松CFR最低价108.5美金/JAS立方米，月环比+0.46%。 目前下游加工厂库存刚需买货，随着近期原木现货连续掉价，下游出库有好转，但终端市场依旧低迷，目前挺价的和持续性和成交量 都有待考量。中长期，在房地产需求减弱和港口库存增加的双重压力下，原木现货 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term expected to maintain a volatile pattern, Brent to be watched in the range of $68.5 - 71/barrel, medium - term bearish [2]. - Asphalt: High - level volatility, cost - end remains strong, short - term supply - demand is weak, price expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation [3][4][5]. - LPG: Expected to be weak, with a decline in total supply, weak combustion demand and weakening chemical demand [6][7][8]. - Natural gas: US natural gas prices are expected to rise, while European natural gas prices are affected by temperature and storage regulations [7][8]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has seasonal demand support but is affected by supply and spot price, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing and demand lacks drive [10][11]. - PX: Expected to fluctuate with the cost - end in the short term, with tight supply and increasing downstream demand [13]. - PTA: Expected to fluctuate, with an increase in inventory accumulation expectation and price under pressure [15]. - Ethylene glycol: Expected to fluctuate, with supply recovery and inventory accumulation expectation in August - September, but cost support from coal prices [16][17]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, with production cuts planned by major manufacturers and weak terminal demand [18]. - PR (bottle chips): Expected to fluctuate with the raw material end in the short term, with processing fees strengthening and production cuts gradually implemented [21]. - Styrene: Expected to fluctuate, with the supply - demand pattern weakening in the third quarter and price under pressure [25]. - Plastic PP: Medium - term prices are bearish, short - term prices are volatile due to cost push [26][27]. - PVC: In the second half of the year, it is in a supply - demand surplus pattern and price is under pressure, but short - term watch due to strong black market [31]. - Caustic soda: Short - term expected to fluctuate strongly, pay attention to liquid chlorine price and spot [31]. - Glass: Expected to fluctuate, with the price having no continuous driving force due to cost and demand factors [33]. - Soda ash: Expected to fluctuate, with supply and demand factors affecting the price and overall sentiment being positive [35][36]. - Methanol: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, pay attention to the evolution of the Middle East situation [38][39]. - Urea: Short - term strong, but be cautious when chasing high due to weak domestic demand and export restrictions [41][42]. - Log: Near - month contracts are in the delivery verification stage, recommend watching, pay attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads [43]. - Double - offset paper: In a supply - demand weak situation, paper mills have a strong willingness to hold prices, and wood pulp prices help relieve cost pressure [45]. - Corrugated paper: In a weak pattern, with sufficient supply, weak demand, and poor cost support [46]. - Pulp: SP main 09 contract can try to go long, pay attention to the 2*SP2509 - NR2509 spread [47][48]. - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: RU main 09 contract to watch, NR main 09 contract can try to go long, pay attention to the RU2509 - NR2509 spread [50][51]. - Butadiene rubber: BR main 09 contract can try to go long, pay attention to the BR2509 - NR2509 spread [54]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 contract settled at $68.38, up $0.05/barrel, + 0.07%; Brent2509 contract settled at $70.19, up $0.04/barrel, + 0.06%; SC main contract 2508 rose 5.8 to 515.7 yuan/barrel, night - session rose 4.4 to 520.1 yuan/barrel; Brent main - second - line spread was $1.19/barrel [1]. - Related News: Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and there may be a cease - fire in Gaza; Trump announced tariffs on products from multiple countries [1]. - Logic Analysis: Near - month spreads are strong, overseas diesel cracking spreads are high, refinery profits are recovering, short - term balance is maintained, and long - term supply surplus pressure is not fully priced [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term range - trading for single - side, watch the Brent range of $68.5 - 71/barrel; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable for arbitrage; watch for options [2][3]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 night - session closed at 3627 points (+ 0.11%), BU2512 night - session closed at 3436 points (- 0.12%); spot prices in different regions were reported [3]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, with supply being sufficient and demand being weak [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: Oil prices are volatile at a high level, cost - end is strong, short - term supply - demand is weak, inventory is stable, single - side price is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation, and cracking spreads are expected to remain high [4][5]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side high - level volatility; asphalt - crude oil spread is stable for arbitrage; watch for options [5][7]. LPG - Market Review: PG2508 night - session closed at 4192 (+ 0.34%), PG2509 night - session closed at 4091 (+ 0.34%); spot prices in different regions were reported [5]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, with overall supply - demand being weak [5][6]. - Logic Analysis: Supply decreased last week, demand is weak in both combustion and chemical fields, and inventory decreased. The overall fundamentals are loose [6][7][8]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side weak operation [8]. Natural Gas - Market Review: TTF closed at 34.304 (+ 0.25%), HH closed at 3.211 (- 3.77%), JKM closed at 12.5 (+ 0.32%) [8]. - Logic Analysis: US natural gas production decreased, demand is strong, LNG export increased, prices are expected to rise; European natural gas prices are affected by temperature and storage regulations [7][8]. - Trading Strategy: HH single - side buy on dips, TTF single - side volatility [9]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 contract night - session closed at 2964 (- 0.60%), LU09 night - session closed at 3686 (- 0.30%); Singapore paper - cargo market spreads changed [10]. - Related News: South Sudan issued a tender, Ukraine attacked Russian refineries, and Singapore spot - window transactions were reported [10]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur spot discounts declined, supply is expected to increase, and demand has seasonal support; low - sulfur supply is increasing and demand lacks drive [10][11]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side watch; watch the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot for arbitrage [12]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6724 (+ 28/+ 0.42%), night - session closed at 6752 (+ 28/+ 0.42%); spot prices and PXN changed [13]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately [13]. - Logic Analysis: Social inventory is low, supply is tight, Asian PX operating rate declined, and downstream demand is increasing [13]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [14]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4718 (+ 8/+ 0.17%), night - session closed at 4732 (+ 14/+ 0.30%); spot basis changed [14]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately [15]. - Logic Analysis: Futures fluctuated, spot basis weakened, domestic TA load increased slightly, downstream polyester load decreased, and inventory accumulation expectation increased [15]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4283 (+ 16/+ 0.37%), night - session closed at 4308 (+ 25/+ 0.58%); spot basis and prices were reported [15][16]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately; some overseas and domestic plants restarted [16]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is expected to recover, inventory accumulation is expected in August - September, downstream demand is weak, but coal prices provide cost support [16][17]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [17]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract day - session closed at 6528 (+ 10/+ 0.15%), night - session closed at 6552 (+ 24/+ 0.37%); spot prices in different regions decreased [17][18]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately [18]. - Logic Analysis: Some plants cut production, processing margins expanded, terminal demand is weak, and major manufacturers still have production - cut plans in July [18]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [19]. PR (bottle chips) - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5880 (+ 14/+ 0.24%), night - session closed at 5892 (+ 12/+ 0.20%); spot market trading was okay [20]. - Related News: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes were mostly stable [21]. - Logic Analysis: Processing fees strengthened, production cuts were gradually implemented, and it is expected to fluctuate with the raw material end in the short term [21]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [22]. Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 main contract day - session closed at 6070 (+ 139/+ 2.34%), night - session closed at 6140 (+ 70/+ 1.15%); EB2508 main contract day - session closed at 7350 (+ 74/+ 1.02%), night - session closed at 7437 (+ 87/+ 1.18%); spot prices and basis changed [22][24]. - Related News: East China pure - benzene port inventory decreased, and styrene East China main - port inventory increased [24]. - Logic Analysis: Pure - benzene supply is abundant, demand is expected to increase; styrene supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates [25]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; long pure - benzene and short styrene for arbitrage; watch for options [26]. Plastic PP - Market Review: LLDPE market prices in some regions declined, and PP spot prices in different regions changed [26][27]. - Related News: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed [27]. - Logic Analysis: There is large production - capacity release pressure in the third quarter, terminal demand is weak, and prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and bearish in the medium term [27]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side medium - term bearish, short - term volatile; watch for arbitrage and options [28]. PVC Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC spot prices increased, and caustic soda spot prices in different regions changed [28][29][30]. - Related News: Product prices in different regions changed, and some chlorine - alkali enterprises adjusted their loads [30]. - Logic Analysis: PVC has production - capacity release pressure, domestic demand is weak, and exports face risks; caustic soda has a peak - season expectation, but new production capacity will be released in July - August [31]. - Trading Strategy: Caustic soda single - side short - term volatile and strong; PVC single - side short - term watch, medium - term bearish; watch for arbitrage and options [32]. Glass - Market Review: Glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1035 yuan/ton (10/0.98%), night - session closed at 1048 yuan/ton (13/1.26%); 9 - 1 spread was - 97 yuan/ton; spot prices in different regions were stable [32]. - Related News: The domestic float - glass market was stable, and some regions planned to increase prices [32]. - Logic Analysis: Glass prices were strong, but there is no continuous driving force due to cost and demand factors; overall sentiment is positive, and prices are expected to fluctuate [33]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side overall sentiment positive, glass volatile; watch for arbitrage and options [33][34]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1194 yuan/ton (16/1.4%), night - session closed at 1206 yuan (12/1.0%); SA9 - 1 spread was - 43 yuan/ton; spot prices in different regions changed [34]. - Related News: The domestic soda - ash market was weak, and some enterprises adjusted prices; photovoltaic "anti - involution" and other news were reported [34][35]. - Logic Analysis: Soda ash prices were strong, supply may decline, demand is weak, inventory accumulates, and profits are shrinking; overall sentiment is positive, and prices are expected to fluctuate [35][36]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side overall sentiment positive, soda ash volatile; watch for arbitrage and options [37]. Methanol - Market Review: Futures prices rose, and spot prices in different regions were reported [37]. - Related News: China's methanol port inventory increased [37]. - Logic Analysis: International plant operating rates increased, imports are expected to recover, supply is loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [38][39]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and weakness; watch for arbitrage; sell call options [40]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures were strong, and spot prices increased [40]. - Related News: China's urea enterprise inventory decreased [41]. - Logic Analysis: Some plants were under maintenance, demand is affected by domestic and international factors, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term but be cautious when chasing high [41][42]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side short - term strong; watch for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [42]. Log - Market Review: 9 - month contract prices declined; some radiation - pine log prices changed [42][43]. - Related News: New Zealand port log departures and sea - freight rates changed; there were delivery intentions and pairings [42][43]. - Logic Analysis: Downstream demand is weak, and the scale difference supports the disk; pay attention to delivery details [43]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side watch for near - month contracts; watch the 9 - 11 reverse spread for arbitrage; watch for options [43][44][45]. Double - offset Paper - Market Review: The double - offset paper market was stable, and prices in different regions were reported [45]. - Related News: Some production lines in East China were shut down, and paper - enterprise inventory pressure was relieved [45]. - Logic Analysis: Supply and demand are weak, paper mills have a strong willingness to hold prices, and wood pulp prices help relieve cost pressure [45]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Corrugated Paper - Market Review: Corrugated and box - board paper market prices were stable, and some regions adjusted prices; raw - material prices were stable [46]. - Related News: Market sentiment was divided, and some paper mills adjusted prices [46]. - Logic Analysis: The market is in a weak pattern, with sufficient supply, weak demand, and poor cost support [46]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Pulp - Market Review: Pulp futures were strong, and spot prices in different regions changed [47]. - Related News: Shandong Sun Paper will build a pulp mill [48]. - Logic Analysis: Some economic data are favorable for SP single - side [48]. - Trading Strategy: SP main 09 contract try to go long; reduce and watch the 2*SP2509 - NR2509 spread [48]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Market Review: RU main 09 contract rose, NR main 09 contract rose, and BR main 09 contract rose; spot prices in different regions were reported [48][49][50]. - Related News: June national passenger - car retail sales increased [50]. - Logic Analysis: Some economic data are favorable for the spread and single - side [50]. - Trading

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Container Shipping - The EC futures market showed mixed trends on July 9, with EC2508 rising 0.31% to 2012.5 points. The latest SCFIS European Line index increased by 6.3% week - on - week to 2258.04 points, and the SCFI European Line rose 3.5% to $2101/TEU [2][4]. - Spot freight rates vary among major shipping companies. The OA Alliance maintains high - level quotes due to good cargo collection. The demand side is in the traditional peak season from July to August, but tariff policies may affect the shipping rhythm. The supply side shows that the weekly average capacity in July, August, and September 2025 is increasing, and July is in a stage of increasing supply and demand [5]. - The short - term market is expected to be supported by Maersk's unchanged rates, driving the EC2508 contract to be relatively strong. The far - month contracts need to focus on the cease - fire negotiations [5]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by about 0.4% to 1431 points on July 8, the lowest since June 3. The Capesize vessel freight index declined for the 16th consecutive day, while the Panamax vessel index reached its highest point since August last year [12]. - Spot freight rates for Capesize vessels' iron ore routes decreased, while some coal and grain routes of Panamax vessels showed different trends. The iron ore and grain shipping volumes decreased in the recent period [13][15]. - The Capesize vessel market is under pressure due to limited cargo volume, while the Panamax vessel market is expected to be relatively strong due to coal and grain transportation demand [17]. Oil Tanker Shipping - On July 8, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) remained unchanged at 935 points, and the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) decreased by 0.19% to 534 points. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to geopolitical conflict premiums, and the demand side is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period [21][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Futures Market - Different EC contracts showed different price changes on July 9. For example, EC2508 rose 0.31%, while EC2510 fell 0.34%. The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased [2]. - The monthly spread structure also changed, with some spreads rising and some falling [2]. Freight Rates - The SCFIS European Line index increased by 6.35% week - on - week, while the SCFIS US West Line index decreased by 3.79%. The SCFI comprehensive index decreased by 5.27% [2]. Market Analysis and Strategy - The market is affected by shipping company quotes, demand - supply dynamics, and tariff policies. The short - term strategy is to wait and see for single - side trading and conduct rolling operations for the 10 - 12 spread arbitrage [4][5][6]. Dry Bulk Shipping Freight Index - The BDI decreased by 0.35% on July 8, the BCI decreased by 4.05%, the BPI increased by 2.48%, and the BSI increased by 2.27% [12]. Spot Freight Rates - Spot freight rates for different routes of Capesize and Panamax vessels showed various trends on July 8 and in the week of July 4 [12][13]. Shipping Volume - From June 30 to July 6, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 362.7 million tons. In June 2025, the soybean shipping volume from Brazil was lower than that in July last year [14][15]. Market Analysis - The Capesize vessel market is weak due to limited cargo volume, while the Panamax vessel market is expected to be strong due to coal and grain demand [17]. Oil Tanker Shipping Freight Index - On July 8, the BDTI remained unchanged, and the BCTI decreased by 0.19%. The average earnings of different types of oil tankers showed different trends [21][22]. Market Analysis - The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to geopolitical conflict premiums, and the demand side is weak during the refinery maintenance period [23]. Industry News - There are various news related to tariffs, shipping volume, and geopolitical situations, such as Trump's tariff announcements, shipping volume data from different regions, and the cease - fire negotiation progress in the Gaza Strip [8][10][15]. Related Attachments - There are multiple figures showing different shipping indices and freight rates over time, including SCFIS, SCFI, BDI, BDTI, etc. [27][36][42]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 7 月 9 日 【生猪日报】供应端整体稳定 价格震荡运行 | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/7/9 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 15.07 | 15.15 | -0.08 | 山 西 | 14.88 | 14.95 | -0.07 | | 湖北（0） | 14.64 | 14.64 | 0.00 | 辽 宁 | 14.74 | 14.78 | -0.04 | | 安徽（300） | 15.16 | 15.18 | -0.02 | 吉 林 | 14.71 | 14.74 | -0.03 | | 湖南（100） | 14.49 | 14.44 | 0.05 | 黑龙江 | 14.69 | 14.72 | -0.03 | | 四川 （-200） | 14.44 | 14.41 | 0.03 | 福 建 | 15.74 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on meal products dated July 9, 2025, focusing on the market conditions of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [2][4] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2997, 2704, and 2947 respectively, with changes of +8, -1, and +12. The spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao shows a downward trend [4] - For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2313, 2306, and 2586 respectively, with changes of +3, -6, and +10. The spot basis in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi shows a stable or slightly downward trend [4] Monthly Spread - The 59, 91, and 15 spreads of soybean meal are -243, -50, and 293 respectively, with changes of -13, +4, and +9. The 59, 91, and 15 spreads of rapeseed meal are -280, 273, and 7 respectively, with changes of -16, +7, and +9 [4] Cross - Variety Futures Spread - The soybean - rapeseed 01 spread is 684, and the soybean - rapeseed 09 spread is 361. The oil - meal ratio 01 is 2.641 [4] Spot Spread - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 640, with an increase of 9. The spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal is 7, with an increase of 3. The spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal is 587, with an increase of 2 [4] Market Performance - The US soybean market continued to decline slightly. The domestic soybean meal market rebounded, and the rapeseed meal market also followed a slight rebound. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Soybean - The new US soybean balance sheet has improved, mainly due to the boost of biodiesel policies on crushing. As of the week ending July 6, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 66%. As of the week ending July 3, the export inspection volume of old US soybeans was 389,400 tons. The soybean crushing data in May was good, with a NOPA - caliber crushing volume of 192.829 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 1.37%, and the crushing profit rebounded [5] South American Soybean - Brazilian farmers' selling progress has been slow, and the recent selling progress has further slowed down, resulting in price pressure. Brazilian soybean crushing volume has decreased, and the crushing profit is relatively low. Argentina's domestic crushing volume may improve, but soybean exports may increase [5] Domestic Market - The domestic spot market is relatively loose. As of July 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 2.3322 million tons, the operating rate is 65.56%, the soybean inventory is 6.364 million tons, a decrease of 4.43% from the previous week, and an increase of 11.28% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory is 822,400 tons, an increase of 18.91% from the previous week, and a decrease of 24.04% year - on - year [7] - The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has weakened. As of the week ending July 4, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills is 47,000 tons, the operating rate this week is 12.53%, the rapeseed inventory is 162,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 4,600 tons, a decrease of 6,400 tons from the previous week [7] Group 4: Macroeconomic Analysis - The China - US negotiations in London have been completed, but there is no clear information. The market is still worried about supply uncertainties. Although the overall international trade situation has many uncertainties, the macro - level disturbances are decreasing. China's long - term demand for US soybeans is still high, so the price is not likely to drop significantly in the short term [8] Group 5: Logic Analysis Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal market shows some support and is slightly stronger than the international market. The US soybean market is expected to be weak, but the decline in the domestic market is expected to be limited. The monthly spread of the domestic soybean meal market may be under some pressure, but the space for a sharp decline is limited [9] Rapeseed Meal - The change in the rapeseed meal market is relatively limited, mainly affected by the soybean meal market. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. The monthly spread of the rapeseed meal market is at a high level and may face some pressure [9] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, a low - position long - order strategy is recommended - For arbitrage, an expansion strategy for the MRM09 spread is recommended - For options, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [10] Group 7: Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit from different origins and shipping dates varies. For example, the crushing profit from Argentina in October is - 33.39 for the futures market and - 109.79 for the spot market, showing an improvement compared to the previous day [11]