Yin He Qi Huo
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银河期货花生日报-20260209
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 12:08
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The spot price of peanuts is expected to be relatively stable in the short term, with the price of Henan peanuts stable and that of Northeast peanuts slightly stronger [3][6] - The spot price of peanut oil is stable, and the peanut meal has been stable recently. Oil mills have good theoretical profitability [3][4][6] - The peanut futures are oscillating at a high level, with the market trading on the ample supply of oil peanuts and the low import price. However, the cost of warehouse receipts is still expected to be relatively high [6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures盘面**: PK604 closed at 7942, up 18 (0.23%), with a trading volume of 14,856 (up 23.21%) and an open interest of 55,776 (down 2.89%); PK610 closed at 8244, up 2 (0.02%), with a trading volume of 95 (down 62.30%) and an open interest of 2,726 (up 0.89%); PK601 had no valid data [1] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7400, 8000, and 8000 respectively, with no change. The prices of Rizhao peanut meal, Rizhao soybean meal, peanut oil, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil were 3250, 3040, 14300, and 8470 respectively, with the soybean meal price down 10 and the soybean oil price up 20. The basis for Henan Nanyang was - 542, and for Shandong Jining and Linyi was 58 [1] - **Import Price**: The price of Sudanese peanuts was 8600, with no change, and the price of Senegalese peanuts was also unchanged [1] - **Spread**: The spread of PK04 - PK10 was up 16 [1] Part 2: Market Analysis - The price of peanuts in Henan is stable, and that in the Northeast is slightly stronger. The pre - sale price of imported Senegalese peanuts is stable. The purchase price of some peanut oil mills is stable, with the mainstream transaction price between 6900 - 7900 yuan/ton and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 7800 yuan/ton. The price of soybean oil is up, and the price of peanut oil is stable. The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal is stable, and the short - term peanut meal is relatively strong [3][4] Part 3: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Go long on 05 peanuts at low prices with a light position [7] - **Monthly Spread**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Sell pk603 - P - 8200 at high prices [9] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the压榨 profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread of peanut 4 - 10 contracts, and the spread of peanut 1 - 4 contracts [11][14][16]
银河期货航运日报-20260209
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 12:08
研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数(欧线) 期货从业证号: F3084078 投资咨询证号: Z0018656 联系方式: :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | (欧线) 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2602 | 1,756.0 | 16.1 | 0.93% | 124.0 | -44.39% | 1,437.0 | 0.56% | | EC2604 | 1,238.0 | 6.8 | 0.55% | 14,384.0 | -51.16% | 31,132.0 | -0.94% | | EC2606 | 1,553.0 | 22.0 | 1.44% | 2,206.0 | -54.98% | 14,726.0 | -0.5 ...
粕类日报:供应压力增加,盘面整体下行-20260209
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 12:07
研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 【粕类日报】供应压力增加 盘面整体下行 研究员:陈界正 期货从业证号: F3045719 投资咨询证号: Z0015458 联系方式: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 交易策略 单边:偏空思路为主 | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2026/2/9 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 2926 | - 2 | 天津 | 400 | 430 | -30 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2729 | - 6 | | 280 | 260 | 2 0 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2857 | - 1 | | 290 | 290 | 0 | | 日照 | | | | | 300 | 290 | 1 0 | | 南通 | 0 1 | 2230 | - 3 | | ...
铁合金日报-20260209
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 12:07
期货从业证号: 铁合金日报 F03134259 第一部分 市场信息 投资咨询证号: 研究员:周涛 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 数据来源:银河期货、Mysteel 1/ 6 Z0021009 联系方式: :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5594 | -30 | -30 | 163653 | -71235 | 159348 | 7845 | | SM主力合约 | 5812 | -44 | -22 | 173864 | -32409 | 370051 | 11034 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5390 | -50 | -30 | 硅 ...
螺纹热卷日报-20260209
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 12:07
研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 02 月 09 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 1/ 10 研究员:戚纯怡 期货从业证号: F03113636 投资咨询证号: Z0018817 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货:网价上海中天螺纹 3190 元(-),北京敬业 3120 元(-),上海鞍钢热卷 3250 元(-),天津河钢热卷 3140 元(-)。 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面维持震荡偏弱走势,整体波动率偏低,钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱。上周钢联数据公布,五大材整体减产,但铁水仍然增产,钢厂陆续进入节日停产 检修的模式;钢材总库存加快累库进度,其中螺纹累库进度快于热卷,总体社库压力 大于厂库;近期天气转冷,下游工地陆陆续续停工,建材需求快速下滑;而钢材出口 受出口许可证下滑,海外制造业陆续结束补库,热卷需求同样下行。整体钢材基本面 边际转弱。近期铁水持续复产,叠加钢厂仍有补库需求,对原料成本产生支撑。预计 节前钢材仍然跟随宏观情绪维持震荡走势。但目前钢材库存偏高, ...
原油日报-20260209
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 11:50
原油现货市场日报 研究所 原油研发报告 原油日报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证书,本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度,独立、客观地 出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的研究观点。本人不曾因,不因,也将不会因本报告中的 具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。本报告也不涉及任何利益冲突问题。 研究员: 赵若晨 期货从业证号: F03151390 投资咨询从业证号: Z0023496 : zhaoruochen_qh | | 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普授权其政府可对与伊朗有贸易往来的国家 加征关税, 但暂未立即实施任何新关税措施。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普取消了因印度购买俄罗斯石油而加征的 | | --- | --- | | 贸易物流 | 25%额外关税, 此举为巩固双边贸易协议条款迈出第一步。 | | | 四名贸易消息人士向路透社透露, 由于巨型田吉兹油田正从1月电 | | | 力设施火灾中缓慢复产, 哈萨克斯坦本月通过俄罗斯主要管道的石 | | | 油出口量可能下降高达35%。 | | 国家战略 | 美国钢铁工人联合会周五通过了一项关于薪酬与福利的全国性协 议, | ...
浆纸继续累库,市场走势偏弱
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 08:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market continues to have a situation of oversupply. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp has increased, and port inventories have been accumulating for five consecutive weeks. The downstream paper mills' procurement is almost stagnant, and overall demand support is weak [5]. - The supply - demand of double - offset paper maintains a weak balance. Supply has increased, but downstream consumption is flat, and the contradiction between supply and demand has not been effectively alleviated. Its valuation is at a low level, and short - term trading is light due to the Spring Festival [5]. - Pulp valuation shows a weak shock trend. In the short term, there is a lack of positive support, and in the long term, it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream resumption of work and restocking rhythm after the festival and port destocking [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The pulp market has an oversupply pattern, and the double - offset paper market has a weak supply - demand balance. Pulp valuation is weak, and double - offset paper valuation is at a low level [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, the main idea is to short SP2505 and be bearish on OP2502; for arbitrage, mainly wait and see, and pay attention to 4SP - OP arbitrage; for options, wait and see for SP options and sell OP2602 - C - 4250 [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Pulp Market**: The supply of domestic broadleaf pulp is 24.9 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.9 tons), and chemical mechanical pulp slightly increases by 0.2 tons. Port inventories have accumulated to 218.2 tons, and downstream paper mills' procurement is almost stagnant [5]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: Production is 20.1 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7.5%), capacity utilization is 51.4%. Downstream consumption is flat, and enterprise inventories are 142.2 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.1%) [5]. - **Pulp Valuation**: It is in a weak shock state, with core pressure from pre - festival demand stagnation and continuous port inventory accumulation [5]. - **Double - Offset Paper Valuation**: It is at a low level, with supply abundance and weak demand as core constraints. Short - term trading is light, and long - term improvement depends on the optimization of the supply - demand pattern [5]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Supply - **Double - Offset Paper**: Production is 20.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4 tons (7.5%), and capacity utilization is 51.4%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. The weekly average profit is - 483.8 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin drops by 1.2 percentage points [9]. - **Coated Paper**: Production is 8.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 tons (1.2%), and capacity utilization is 62.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. The weekly average profit is - 5.5 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin rises by 1.1 percentage points [17]. - **Domestic Pulp**: The production of broadleaf pulp is 24.9 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons from last week. The production profit margin is relatively stable [25]. - **Wood Pulp**: The market price of chemical mechanical pulp is 2575 yuan/ton, remaining flat. As of February 5, 2026, the inventory of mainstream port samples is 218.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3 tons (0.6%) [29]. 3.3.2 Inventory - **Double - Offset Paper**: The production enterprise inventory is 142.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. It is expected to continue increasing in the next cycle [13]. - **Coated Paper**: The production enterprise inventory is 39.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%. It is expected to continue increasing in the next cycle [22]. - **Life - Use Paper**: The production is 29.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13%. The inventory is 63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.16%, and the inventory days are 20.52 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.15% [33]. - **White Cardboard**: The production is 35.0 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9 tons (5.74%). The production factory inventory is 104.0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 tons (0.19%) [36]. 3.3.3 Price - **Double - Offset Paper**: The enterprise average price of 70g double - offset paper is 4571.4 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% [44]. - **Coated Paper**: The enterprise average price of 157g coated paper is 4903.6 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% [44]. - **Imported Pulp**: The average spot price of coniferous pulp is 5331 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the average spot price of broadleaf pulp is 4600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%; the average spot price of chemical mechanical pulp is 3800 yuan/ton, remaining flat; the average spot price of natural color pulp is 4950 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58% [48].
年前工厂逐步停工,关注未来原木到港情况
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 08:03
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The valuation of logs is relatively strong this week with regional price differentiation. The support for the valuation comes from tight domestic arrivals, continuous inventory reduction, and a $3 increase in the February foreign market, which raises the procurement cost of traders. However, the approaching Spring Festival leads to a market shutdown and a temporary decline in demand, so the valuation lacks the momentum for continuous growth. Attention should be paid to the recovery of post - holiday resumption demand and the increase in arrivals from New Zealand [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - On the supply side, the shipment from New Zealand has returned to normal, but the arrival volume at 13 domestic ports has decreased by 15% month - on - month to 185,000 cubic meters, still at a relatively low level. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market is closed, and the national daily average outbound volume has slightly decreased by 0.16%. However, the capital availability of construction sites has continuously improved, with the growth rate of housing construction projects leading, driving some projects to rush for work and stock up. There is regional demand differentiation, with an increase in outbound volume in Shandong and Fujian and a decline in Jiangsu. On the inventory side, the total port inventory has decreased by 2.81% month - on - month to 2.42 million cubic meters. The main timber species such as radiata pine are all in a state of inventory reduction, and the inventory in major ports such as Shandong and Jiangsu has generally decreased, with overall tight supply [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. Aggressive investors can lay out long positions based on last month's low point. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage of log 03 - 05. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8][9] Core Logic Analysis - The log valuation is strong this week with regional price differentiation. The support for the valuation comes from tight domestic arrivals, continuous inventory reduction, and a $3 increase in the February foreign market, which raises the procurement cost of traders. The suppressing factor is the approaching Spring Festival, which leads to a market shutdown and a temporary decline in demand. In the short term, there is a game between cost support and the off - season of demand, and the valuation lacks the momentum for continuous growth. Attention should be paid to the recovery of post - holiday resumption demand and the increase in arrivals from New Zealand [7]. Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - The expected shipment volume of New Zealand logs to China in January 2026 is 933,000 cubic meters, a 39% decrease compared to December. The number of shipment vessels is 29, a decrease of 26 compared to December. From January 31 to February 6, 2026, New Zealand directly shipped 9 vessels with 340,000 cubic meters of logs to China, an increase of 2 vessels and 70,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. From February 2 to February 8, 2026, the pre - arrival vessels of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports are 5, 2 less than the previous week, a 29% week - on - week decrease; the total arrival volume is about 185,000 cubic meters, 33,000 cubic meters less than the previous week, a 15% week - on - week decrease [18][19]. Log Inventory - As of January 30, the total domestic log inventory of different materials is 2.42 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a 2.81% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory is 2.06 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a 2.83% week - on - week decrease. The North American timber inventory is 110,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, an 8.33% week - on - week decrease. The spruce/fir inventory is 110,000 cubic meters, the same as the previous week. In terms of different provinces, as of January 30, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong is 1,771,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 117,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu is 407,604 cubic meters, a decrease of 117,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian is 124,223 cubic meters, a decrease of 20,057 cubic meters compared to the previous period [22]. Log Demand - As of January 30, the daily average outbound volume of logs at 13 ports is 61,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 100 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a 0.16% week - on - week decrease. Among them, the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong is 38,900 cubic meters, an increase of 2,800 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a 7.76% week - on - week increase; the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu is 15,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 3,500 cubic meters compared to the previous period, an 18.04% week - on - week decrease; the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Fujian is 5,200 cubic meters, an increase of 1,200 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a 30% week - on - week increase. As of February 3, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites is 60.27%, a 0.59 - percentage - point increase week - on - week. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects is 61.18%, a 0.54 - percentage - point increase week - on - week; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects is 55.71%, a 0.72 - percentage - point increase week - on - week [26]. Log Prices - In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week is 750 yuan per cubic meter, a 10 - yuan increase compared to last week, a 1.35% week - on - week increase, and a 60 - yuan decrease compared to the same period last year, a 7.41% year - on - year decrease. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week is 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - quality spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week is 1150 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week, and a 100 - yuan increase compared to last year, a 9.52% year - on - year increase [33]. - For radiata pine wood squares, taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine wood squares as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1270 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1290 yuan per cubic meter. For spruce/white pine wood squares, taking 3000*40*90 white pine wood squares as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1730 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1680 yuan per cubic meter [38]. Import Log Costs - In February 2026, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs is $113 per JAS cubic meter, a $3 increase compared to last month. The FOB price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20+ spruce logs is 125 euros per JAS cubic meter, a 1 - euro increase compared to last month [45].
国债期货周报:风偏回落,债市偏暖-20260209
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 05:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the nomination of the new Fed Chair and the release of Q4 earnings of large US tech companies, overseas policy easing and AI industry expansion narratives have fluctuated, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, and the money market remained balanced and loose. The bond market strengthened this week, and futures bond prices generally rose [6]. - In the future, the decline in the profit - making effect of risk assets and the approach of the Spring Festival may bring incremental funds to the bond market. The probability of the 10Y Treasury yield breaking below 1.8% is increasing. However, the short - term yield decline may be limited due to weak policy rate cut expectations, and the bond market sentiment may turn cautious as the second - hand housing market in core cities shows signs of stabilization and important meetings are approaching after the Spring Festival [6]. - The short - term risk - off does not mean a fundamental reversal of the optimistic macro - narrative, and the de - leveraging of risk assets does not mean a complete reversal of their trends [6]. 3. Summary According to Different Sections 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Market risk appetite decline**: The nomination of the new Fed Chair and Q4 earnings of large US tech companies caused fluctuations in overseas policy easing and AI industry expansion narratives. This led to increased volatility in global risk asset prices, which spread to the domestic market. The decline in risk - asset profit - making effect and risk appetite was beneficial to the bond market, driving the bond market to strengthen this week [16]. - **Stable cross - festival funds**: Next week, government bond issuance and payment will increase to 6436.87 million yuan. With the approaching Spring Festival, cross - festival fund prices are expected to converge. However, the central bank's clear attitude to protect liquidity may limit the actual fluctuation of fund prices [18]. - **Partial recovery of the second - hand housing market**: Recently, the second - hand housing market in some core cities has shown signs of marginal stabilization, especially in first - tier cities where the second - hand housing listing price index has risen for three consecutive weeks since mid - January. This may be due to the introduction of local housing purchase policies and the market's need for stabilization after a rapid price decline in Q4 last year. However, the sustainability of the recovery needs further observation [29][31]. - **Low valuation of futures bond market**: As of Friday's close, the IRR of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were 1.3104%, 1.4461%, 1.3764%, and 1.3644% respectively. Compared with spot bonds, the futures bond market valuation was mostly at a slightly lower - than - neutral level [36]. - **Slow progress of main contract roll - over**: The roll - over of main contracts accelerated this week but was still slower than the historical average. As of Friday, the roll - over progress of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts was 22.0%, 34.7%, 24.6%, and 35.3% respectively [37]. - **Net short - position dominance in the top ten futures seats**: During the rise of futures prices this week, the net long - position ratio of the top ten seats decreased. As of Friday, the net position ratios of TS, TF, T, and TL top ten seats were - 21.38%, - 6.99%, - 4.58%, and - 3.30% respectively. With low contract valuation, slow roll - over, net short - position dominance, and no significant increase in interest - rate cut expectations, the inter - delivery spread may strengthen periodically [44]. - **High spread between new and old ultra - long bonds**: The spread between new and old 30Y bonds widened significantly this week and then narrowed. As of Friday, the spreads between the CTD bonds of TL current and next - season contracts and active bonds were 7.71bp and 7.10bp respectively. It is recommended to short the spread between new and old ultra - long bonds using futures bonds. However, significant spread narrowing may require the elimination of negative factors such as government bond supply, and the next - season TL contract may be a better choice for arbitrage positions [47]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Single - side strategy**: Partially take profits on long TL positions and hold the remaining lightly [7][8]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Pay appropriate attention to going long on the T - contract inter - delivery spread and shorting the spread between new and old ultra - long bonds using futures bonds [7][8]. 3.2 Second Part: Related Data Tracking - **Bond futures contract spreads**: Data on spreads between TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are provided, showing historical trends [52]. - **Trading volume and open interest**: Data on trading volume and open interest of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are presented [55]. - **Spot bond yields and spreads**: Information on Treasury bond yield curves, term spreads, spreads between Treasury and local bonds, and spreads between 10Y Treasury and CDB bonds are given [58]. - **US Treasury yields and exchange rates**: Data on US 10 - year Treasury yields, Sino - US 10 - year Treasury yield spreads, the US dollar index, and the offshore US dollar - RMB exchange rate are provided [61].
油脂周报:油脂仍受政策端扰动,关注下周两大月报-20260209
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 03:28
研究员:张盼盼 期货从业证号:F03119783 投资咨询证号:Z0022908 目录 油脂周报:油脂仍受政策端扰动,关注下周两大月报 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 n 近期核心事件&行情回顾: 1.三大预估机构预计马棕1月产量环比减少12-14%至160万吨左右,出口变现有所好转至142万吨,库存或将去库至290 万吨左右。 2.美国财政部本周发布了45Z税收抵免拟议规则,新规中将生物燃料的生产原料定为美国、加拿大、墨西哥地区,还取消 了间接土地利用变化惩罚等。此外,周三中美领导人通话传言中国将本季美豆采购承诺增至2000万吨。 3.近期油脂受贸易及政策预期等因素影响较多,经历了前期快速上涨,近日上涨乏力有所回落。马棕1月或将减产去库, 但高基数下马棕库存或持续维持偏高水平,不过马来和印尼库存有所分化,两国合计库存仍不算宽松。美国生柴预期向好 将利好美豆油消费需求等,对豆油存在潜在利多。不过豆油整体上没有一个比较突出的核心矛盾点,市场传中国将本季美 豆采购承诺增至2000万吨,且新一轮拍储或在节后进行,豆油供应压力可能后移,也将制约 ...