1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Amid ongoing Fed turmoil, precious metals are in high - level oscillations. The short - term market sentiment fluctuates, but the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies will lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown. The Fed's independence is also uncertain. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level oscillations, and there's no need to be overly pessimistic. It's recommended to focus on tariff negotiation progress and the Fed's July interest - rate meeting at the end of the month [5][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield first declined and then rose. Precious metals showed an inverse relationship, rising first and then falling. Silver was more resilient than gold. London gold traded between $3338 - $3439 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 0.02%. London silver reached a new high of $39.523 since September 2011, trading between $38 - $39.5, with a weekly gain of 1.88%. Affected by exchange rates, domestic precious metals underperformed overseas markets. Shanghai gold traded between 774 - 794 yuan, with a weekly decline of 2.46%. Shanghai silver traded between 9213 - 9526 yuan, with a weekly gain of 1.28%. The US dollar index hovered between 97 - 98, with a weekly decline of 0.85%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield ranged from 4.33% - 4.44%, remaining at a relatively high level [5] - Market trading was affected by Fed turmoil, trade negotiation progress, and US macro "hard" data. The Trump administration pressured the Fed, but the Treasury Secretary soothed market sentiment. Tariff negotiations accelerated, with a preliminary agreement reached between the US and Japan, while the game between the US and the EU continued. US macro data was generally strong, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year slightly adjusted downwards. Overall, there were more negative factors this week, limiting the upward trend of precious metals [5] - US macro data: The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 was 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in July was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9 [5] - US tariff progress: The EU passed a 93 - billion - euro counter - tariff plan against the US, to take effect on August 7 if no agreement is reached. India is confident of reaching a trade agreement with the US. Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, with a 15% tariff rate on Japan and $550 billion in Japanese investment in the US. Trump also said he would impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most countries, but is willing to abandon the tariff clause if major countries open their markets to the US [5] 3.1.2 Trading Logic - As reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect, tariff negotiations between the US and other major economies have accelerated, easing market risk - aversion sentiment. The latest US employment and services PMI data show resilience, reducing market concerns about the deterioration of the US economic fundamentals. In the future, despite short - term market sentiment fluctuations, the benchmark scenario is inflation rebound and economic slowdown due to US tariff and policy uncertainties. The Fed's independence is also uncertain. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level oscillations [9] 3.1.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait for low - buying opportunities after a pullback [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Adopt the strategy of buying out - of - the - money call options [11] 3.2 Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.2.1 US Economy - GDP and Consumption - In 2024, the annual GDP growth rate reached 2.8%, better than expected. The consumption sector, accounting for two - thirds of the economy, continuously drove US GDP growth, with the service industry making a significant positive contribution. The investment sector also supported the economy [22] - In Q1 2025, affected by tariffs, the economy slowed down, recording - 0.3%, worse than the expected - 0.2%. This mainly reflected increased imports and reduced government spending (an 8% decline in defense spending) [23] - The latest data shows that US residents' pessimistic expectations have eased. The US retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.1% and the previous value of - 0.9%. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July was 61.8, higher than the expected 61.5 and the previous value of 60.7. The preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation in July was 4.4%, lower than the expected 5% and the previous value of 5% [24][25] 3.2.2 US Economy - PMI Indicators - The two major PMI indicators in the US showed a divergence. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in July was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9. The US ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.8, higher than the expected 50.5 and the previous value of 49.9. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in June was 49 [27] 3.2.3 US Economy - Employment - Employment data shows that the US job market is temporarily stable. The seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in June were 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The average hourly wage annual rate in June was 3.7%, lower than the expected 3.9%. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 was 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000 [32] 3.2.4 Macroeconomic Factors - Inflation - In June, the overall US CPI annual rate rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, also in line with expectations. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, slightly lower than the expected 3% but up from the previous month's 2.8%. The monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%. The overall US CPI data showed a moderate rebound. After the data release, market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year slightly adjusted downwards [36] 3.3 Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking 3.3.1 ETF and CFTC Positions - The data shows the trends of gold and silver ETF positions and CFTC speculative net positions, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [39] 3.3.2 Gold - Supply and Demand - In 2024, according to the World Gold Council, the total gold supply increased slightly by 1% year - on - year to 4974 tons. Mine production reached 3661 tons, basically unchanged year - on - year. Recycled gold totaled 1370 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. Total gold demand was 4554 tons, a 1% year - on - year increase. Investment demand increased by 25% to 1180 tons, reaching a four - year high. Gold used in technology increased by 21 tons (+7%). Jewelry consumption hit a record low, only 1877 tons, a - 9% year - on - year decrease. Global central banks bought 1044.6 tons of gold in 2024, exceeding 1000 tons for the third consecutive year [42] - For 2025, the World Gold Council predicts that gold supply will increase again due to factors such as slowing global economic growth, high gold prices, and a slight decline in geopolitical risk premiums. Low interest rates, high - valued stocks, a weak US dollar, and geopolitical risks are favorable for gold ETF, over - the - counter, and futures investments. Central banks may again purchase over 1000 tons of gold. However, economic slowdown and high prices may pressure jewelry demand. Technology - related gold demand is expected to remain stable due to continued investment in artificial intelligence [42] 3.3.3 Central Bank Gold Purchases - Since 2022, global central banks have been on a gold - buying spree. In 2022, the purchase volume reached a record high of 1082 tons, 1037 tons in 2023, and 1045 tons in 2024. Developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India have been active buyers [52] - In Q3 2024, central bank gold - buying activities slowed down to 186 tons. In Q4, in an environment of falling gold prices and Trump's inauguration, global central banks bought 333 tons of gold, a 54% year - on - year and 79% quarter - on - quarter increase [52] - Reasons for central bank gold purchases: China aims to optimize foreign exchange reserve structure, hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties, and promote RMB internationalization. Poland wants to prevent geopolitical risks and enhance financial security. Turkey uses gold to combat currency depreciation and inflation, reduce the risk of US dollar system sanctions, and as a hedging tool under low - interest - rate policies. India aims to optimize foreign exchange reserve structure and enhance international financial influence [52] 3.3.4 Silver - Supply and Demand - In 2024, according to the World Silver Association, the global silver supply was 31573 tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. Global silver demand was 36208 tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease. The demand mainly included 21166 tons for industrial use (6146 tons for photovoltaic use), 6491 tons for silver jewelry, 1686 tons for silverware, and 5938 tons for investment. The supply - demand gap was 4634 tons [54] - For 2025, the World Silver Association predicts that the supply will continue to grow by 2% to 32055 tons. Industrial silver demand is expected to change little, with photovoltaic silver use remaining at around 6000 tons. The supply - demand gap is expected to narrow to 3658 tons. The growth of the photovoltaic industry may be limited in 2025, and the trend of using less or no silver is emerging due to high silver prices [54] 3.3.5 Silver Inventory - Recently, the total visible silver inventory in major global exchanges, including LBMA, Comex, SHFE, and SGE, has rebounded from the historical low [61]

第一章 综合分析与交易策略 大宗商品强势反弹，尿素震荡为主 第二章 基本面数据 大宗商品研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年7月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、概述 上周观点：大宗商品强势反弹，尿素震荡 GALAXY FUTURES 2 本周观点：需求低迷，尿素回落 周末至今，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价大幅领跌，成交乏力。山东地区主流出厂报价大幅下跌，市场情绪表现一般，工 业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单成交乏力，低 价成交尚可，待发消耗，预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价暂稳，贸易商观望，收单量下滑，成交乏力，待发充裕， 预计出厂报价暂稳为主。交割区周边区域出厂价跟跌，区内市场氛围表现降温，东北地区追肥结束，交投情绪一般，农业刚需采购，期现商 和贸易商出货，外发订单量下滑，新单成交平平，待发充裕，预计出厂价下跌为主。 综合来看：部分装置检修，日均产量降至19万吨附近，仍位于同期最高水平。需求端， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Crude Oil - Near - term supply - demand is in a tight - balance with marginal relief. Brent's main contract is expected to trade between $67 - 70 per barrel. The market should focus on Middle - East exports and feedstock demand from major consumers in Q3, as well as the progress of China - US trade negotiations [2]. Asphalt - Supply is at a low level year - on - year, and demand improved significantly in Q2. Q3 demand will determine the de - stocking strength during the peak season. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, and the crack spread will be stronger [4][5]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure in Q3 is slightly less than expected, and demand for high - sulfur feedstock is expected to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is rising with no specific demand drivers [6][7]. PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR, Pure Benzene and Styrene - Due to factors such as new device production, maintenance, and market demand, short - term prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening [8][11][13][15][18][20]. Plastic PP - There is still significant production capacity pressure in Q3, and the terminal demand is weak year - on - year. Currently, it is mainly macro - led, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC supply - demand has weakened, but short - term prices are expected to be strong due to macro - policies. Caustic soda fundamentals are marginally weaker, but the short - term price is also expected to be strong due to policy and sentiment [29]. Glass and Soda Ash - Macro and industry factors are in resonance, with both futures and spot prices rising. Short - term prices are expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to inventory and demand digestion [32][34]. Methanol - International device start - up rates are rising, and domestic supply is abundant. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [36]. Urea - Domestic supply is abundant, but demand is expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to buy on dips [38]. Double - coated Paper - The market is partially declining, and the supply - demand is weak. Industry players are cautiously waiting and watching [40]. Logs - The price of radiata pine logs in Taicang has increased. Near - term contracts are in the delivery verification stage, and it is recommended to wait and watch [43][44]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - RU and NR contracts are recommended to hold long positions, and the spread between RU2509 and NR2509 should be reduced for observation [48]. Butadiene Rubber - BR contracts are recommended to short - sell a small amount, with a stop - loss set at the night - session high [52]. Pulp - The market is in a stalemate, and the short - term recommendation is to wait and watch [53]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Crude Oil**: WTI2509 rose $0.78 to $66.03 per barrel, Brent2509 rose $0.67 to $69.18 per barrel, and SC2509 rose to 507.1 yuan per barrel [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2509 closed at 3598 points (+0.31%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3458 points (+0.32%) at night [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU09 closed at 2893 (+1.08%) at night, and LU10 closed at 3567 (+0.31%) at night [5]. - **PX**: PX2509 closed at 7010 (+0.78%) at night, and the spot price rose to $856 per ton [7]. - **PTA**: TA509 closed at 4888 (+0.78%) at night, and the spot price was negotiated between 4775 - 4870 yuan [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: EG2509 closed at 4565 (+1.78%) at night, and the spot price was negotiated around 4542 - 4545 yuan [12]. - **Short - fiber**: PF2509 closed at 6566 (+0.71%) at night, and the spot price was stable [15]. - **PR**: PR2509 closed at 6096 (+0.89%) at night, and the spot market trading was average [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: BZ2503 closed at 6320 (+1.51%) at night, EB2509 closed at 7439 (+1.71%) at night, and the spot prices were in different ranges [18]. - **Plastic PP**: LLDPE market prices had partial fluctuations, and PP spot prices in different regions had different changes [22]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC prices mostly rose, and caustic soda prices were stable [25][26]. - **Glass**: The glass futures 09 contract closed at 1346 yuan per ton (+2.98%) at night, and spot prices in different regions had changes [30]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1430 yuan (+1.6%) at night, and spot prices in different regions had changes [33]. - **Methanol**: The methanol futures closed at 2494 (+1.18%) at night, and spot prices in different regions varied [35]. - **Urea**: The urea futures closed at 1785 (-0.17%), and the spot prices were stable [38]. - **Double - coated Paper**: The market had partial declines, and prices in Shandong region decreased [40]. - **Logs**: The price of radiata pine logs in Taicang increased, and the 9 - month contract fluctuated [43]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: RU09 rose 1.05%, NR09 rose 1.26%, and BR09 remained unchanged [46][47][50]. - **Pulp**: The SP09 contract closed at 5454 (-0.04%), and spot prices of different pulp types were in different ranges [53]. Related Information - **Crude Oil**: Tensions in the Middle - East, US - Venezuela relations, and potential EU - US trade agreements [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Price changes in different regions, production status of refineries, and inventory data [3][4]. - **Fuel Oil**: Inventory changes in ARA and Singapore, and trading in the Singapore spot window [5][6]. - **PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR**: Downstream product sales, device start - up rates, and new device production plans [8][10][12][15][17]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Device start - up rates, new device production plans, and import data [19][20]. - **Plastic PP**: Device maintenance, start - up rates, and downstream industry start - up rates [24]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Inventory changes, device start - up rates, and new device production plans [26][27][29]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Policy consultations, price changes in different regions, and inventory changes [31][33]. - **Methanol**: Production volume, device start - up rates, and international device status [36]. - **Urea**: Production volume, start - up rates, and export policies [38]. - **Double - coated Paper**: Production status of paper mills, inventory changes, and raw material prices [40][41]. - **Logs**: Price changes, pre - arrival ships, and freight rates [43][44]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: Border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia, and tire production line start - up rates [48][51][52]. - **Pulp**: Industry standard formulation and downstream paper mill demand [54]. Logic Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Supply - demand balance is affected by Middle - East exports and macro - factors, and long - term supply may be in excess [2]. - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is affected by production and demand seasons, and prices are affected by oil prices [4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: Supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are affected by different factors such as device start - up and demand seasons [6][7]. - **PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR**: Supply is affected by new device production and maintenance, and demand is affected by the off - season [8][11][13][15][18]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Supply and demand are expected to increase in Q3, and prices are affected by cost and policy [20]. - **Plastic PP**: There is production capacity pressure, and demand is weak, but macro - factors play a leading role [24]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Supply - demand has weakened, but macro - policies support prices [29]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Macro and industry policies drive price increases, but attention should be paid to inventory and demand digestion [32][34]. - **Methanol**: Abundant supply and stable demand lead to short - term oscillation [36]. - **Urea**: Supply is abundant, but demand is expected to improve, and prices are affected by exports [38]. - **Double - coated Paper**: Supply - demand is weak, and factories try to maintain prices [41]. - **Logs**: Downstream demand is weak, and price support and valuation are affected by multiple factors [44]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: Tire production line start - up rates and macro - factors affect prices [48][52]. - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is in a stalemate, and prices are affected by downstream demand [53]. Trading Strategies - **Crude Oil**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and gasoline crack spreads are weak while diesel crack spreads are stable [2]. - **Asphalt**: Unilateral trading is oscillating narrowly, the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong, and options are on hold [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: Unilateral trading is on hold, and attention should be paid to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot [7]. - **PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR, Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Unilateral trading is oscillating and strengthening, and arbitrage and options are on hold [8][11][13][15][18][20]. - **Plastic PP**: Unilateral trading is oscillating and strengthening in the short - term, and arbitrage and options are on hold [25]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Unilateral trading is strong, and arbitrage and options are on hold [30]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Unilateral trading is strong, arbitrage is to go long on glass and short on soda ash, and options are on hold [32][35]. - **Methanol**: Unilateral trading is oscillating and strengthening, arbitrage is on hold, and sell call options [38]. - **Urea**: Unilateral trading is to buy on dips, arbitrage is on hold, and sell put options on dips [39]. - **Double - coated Paper**: No specific trading strategies are provided. - **Logs**: Unilateral trading is to wait and watch, and arbitrage and options are on hold [45]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: Hold long positions in RU and NR, reduce the spread between RU2509 and NR2509 for observation, and options are on hold [48]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Short - sell a small amount of BR, and arbitrage and options are on hold [52]. - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is to wait and watch, and arbitrage is on hold [55].

大宗商品研究 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡走高，最终报收 2480（+50/+2.06%）。 【重要资讯】 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 7 月 24 日 本周(20250718-0724)中国甲醇产量为 1898825 吨，较上周增加 29100 吨，装置产能利 用率为 83.98%，环比涨 1.56%。 甲醇日报 【逻辑分析】 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 2050 元/吨，北线报价 2020 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2080 元/吨，榆林地区报价 2040 元/吨，山西地区报价 2120 元/吨，河南地区报价 2200 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2280 元/吨，鲁北报价 2280 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2220 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2150 元/吨，云贵报价 2200 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2460 元/吨，宁波报价 2450 元/吨，广州报价 2430 元/吨。 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿开工率回升，需求尚可，原料煤价格反弹，西北 主流甲醇企业竞拍价格坚挺，煤制甲醇利润在 650 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定， 国内供应持续宽松 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 煤炭日报 2025 年 7 月 24 日 煤炭日报 【市场回顾】 现货市场：7 月 24 日，港口市场交投氛围一般，贸易商报价维持坚挺，现 5500 大 卡市场报价 650-660 元/吨，5000 大卡市场报价 590-600 元/吨，4500 大卡市场报价 520 元/吨；内蒙地区非电企业用煤 5500 大卡煤种价格在 420 - 460 元/吨之间，5000 大卡煤 种价格在 350 - 390 元/吨之间，4500 大卡煤种价格在 280 - 320 元/吨之间；榆林地区非 电企业用煤6000大卡煤的价格区间为500 - 530元/吨，5800大卡煤的价格区间为475 - 505 元/吨；山西非电企业用煤 5500 大卡煤种价格在 475-525 元/吨之间，5000 大卡煤种价格 在 415-465 元/吨之间，4500 大卡煤种价格在 355-405 元/吨之间。江内港口 5500 大卡动 力煤报价区间为 685 - 700 元/吨，仍有个别贸易商报价高达 710 元/吨；5000 大卡动力煤 报价在 630 - 640 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 截至 6 月底，全国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for oils and fats is that prices may correct from high levels, and investors can consider buying on dips after the correction. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see. For options, after the correction, selling put options or buying call options can be considered [10][11][12] Summary by Section 1. Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On July 24, 2025, the closing price of soybean oil 2509 was 8166, up 92; palm oil 2509 was 9104, up 110; and rapeseed oil 2509 was 9492, up 36. The basis for different regions and varieties showed various trends, with some remaining stable and some having small changes [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spread for soybean oil was 52, up 8; for palm oil it was 44, up 24; and for rapeseed oil it was 53, unchanged [3] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was - 938, down 18; the OI - Y spread was 1326; the OI - P spread was 388, down 74; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.70, up 0.09 [3] - **Import Profit**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia & Indonesia had a盘面 profit of - 114, and CNF price was 1065. The FOB price of Rotterdam's rapeseed oil was 1043, with a盘面 profit of - 895 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 29th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 59.1 million tons (compared to 56.3 million tons last week and 109.2 million tons last year); palm oil inventory was 50.7 million tons; rapeseed oil inventory was 69.5 million tons (compared to 70.6 million tons last week and 42.9 million tons last year) [3] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: South American crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre. The USDA predicted the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 52.5 bushels per acre, the same as last month's forecast and higher than last year's 50.7 bushels per acre. The USDA also predicted the 2025/26 US soybean production at 4.335 billion bushels, lower than last month's forecast and last year's production [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: On July 24, 2025, palm oil futures prices rose more than 1%. As of July 18, 2025 (the 29th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 59.14 million tons, a 5.04% increase from last week. The origin's quotes were stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed. There was a rumor of one ship purchase. The spot market was stable, and investors can consider buying on dips due to the potential for inventory build - up and the positive macro - environment [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: On July 24, 2025, soybean oil futures prices rose more than 1%. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2305500 tons, and the operating rate was 64.81%. As of July 18, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1091800 tons, a 4.04% increase from last week and a 2.40% increase year - on - year. The basis was stable. With a large arrival of soybeans and high crushing volume, soybean oil is in a phase of inventory build - up, but it is still showing a strong upward trend driven by the overall oil and fat market. Investors can consider buying on dips without over - chasing the high [6][8] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: On July 24, 2025, rapeseed oil futures prices rose slightly. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 59000 tons, and the operating rate was 15.72%. As of July 18, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 69.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week, still at a historical high but with a continuous marginal reduction. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil was around $1020, and the import profit inversion narrowed to around - 600. The spot market was quiet, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decline. Due to more policy disturbances, the single - side price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and investors should continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [8] 3. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: Short - term, expect oils and fats to correct from high levels. Consider buying on dips after the correction [10] - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11] - **Options**: After the correction, consider selling put options or buying call options [12] 4. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the basis of different oils in different regions, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads over different time periods from 2016 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [15]

能源化工研发报告 大宗商品研究 尿素日报 2025 年 7 月 24 日 尿素日报 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价明稳暗降，成交乏力。山东 地区主流出厂报价暂稳，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充 裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单 成交转弱，待发消耗，预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价暂稳， 贸易商观望，收单量下滑，成交乏力，待发充裕，预计出厂报价暂稳为主。交割区周边 区域出厂价明稳暗降，区内市场氛围表现降温，东北地区追肥结束，交投情绪一般，农 业刚需采购，期现商和贸易商出货，外发订单量下滑，新单成交平平，待发充裕，预计 出厂价下跌为主。部分装置检修，日均产量降至 19 万吨附近，仍位于同期最高水平。 需求端，新一轮印标价格公布，东海岸最低投标价 495 美元/吨，西海岸最低投标价 494 美元/吨，当前国内外价差较大，在出口放松背景下，对国内市场情绪有一定提振。华 中、华北地区复合肥积极性不高，基层暂无备货医院，复合肥厂开工率略有提升，但尿 素库存可用天数在一周后，对原料采购情绪不高。本周，尿素 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Peanut Daily Report [2] - Report Date: July 24, 2025 [2][3] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [2] - Relevant Departments: Commodity Research Institute, Agricultural Product R & D Report [1][7][18] Group 2: Investment Ratings - Not provided in the document Group 3: Core Views - Peanut spot prices are expected to be relatively weak in the short - term due to tight supply and weak downstream demand [5][9] - Peanut 10 futures will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with expectations of increased planting area and decreased planting cost [9] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Data - **Futures Market**: PK604 closed at 8030, up 4 (0.05%); PK510 closed at 8130, down 12 (-0.15%); PK601 closed at 8022, up 32 (0.40%). Trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed to varying degrees [3] - **Spot Market**: In Henan, peanut prices were weak; in the Northeast, they were stable. Imported Sudanese peanuts were stable at 8300 yuan/ton. Peanut oil prices were stable, with mainstream purchase prices at 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton and theoretical break - even price at 8110 yuan/ton [3][5] - **By - product Market**: Rizhao soybean meal was weak, down 60 yuan/ton to 2850 yuan/ton. Peanut meal was short - term weak, with 48 - protein peanut meal at 3250 yuan/ton [8] - **Price Difference**: PK01 - PK04 spread was - 8, up 28; PK04 - PK10 spread was - 100, up 16; PK10 - PK01 spread was 108, down 44 [3] 2. Market Analysis - Northeast peanut prices were stable, while Henan prices were weak. Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing, and the prices of peanut oil and soybean oil were stable [5] 3. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Wait and see for Peanut 10 futures which are oscillating at high levels [10] - **Spread**: Do reverse spreads for Peanut 10 - 1 contracts when the spread is low [11] - **Options**: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [12] 4. Relevant Attachments - There are six charts showing historical data of Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill profit, peanut oil prices, peanut spot - futures basis, Peanut 10 - 1 spread, and Peanut 1 - 4 spread [15][21][22]

投资咨询证号： Z0015458 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 7 月 24 日 【粕类日报】供应压力增加 粕类大幅回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/7/24 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 3059 | -57 | 天津 | -70 | -100 | 3 0 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2753 | -16 | | -180 | -200 | 2 0 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 3025 | -70 | | -170 | -190 | 2 0 | | | | | | 日照 | -170 | -190 | 2 0 | | 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2412 | -32 | 南通 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 7 月 24 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 2025/7/24 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 2238 -9 -0.40% 44,478 -27.38% 171,699 3.20% 2280 -11 -0.48% 6,777 -1.90% 30,179 4.34% 2318 -3 -0.13% 406,973 -41.56% 895,053 -3.03% 2612 -14 -0.54% 7,318 26.06% 16,017 4.56% 2653 -13 -0.49% 153 66.01% 331 -7.02% 2669 -6 -0.22% 85,663 -25.31% 200,873 -3.41% 青冈 嘉吉生化 诸城兴贸 寿光 锦州港 南通港 广东港口 2270 2240 2542 2488 2320 2470 2480 0 0 10 -6 0 0 0 -48 -78 224 170 2 152 162 龙凤 中粮 嘉吉 玉峰 金玉米 诸城兴贸 恒仁工贸 2850 2800 2850 3000 2950 2960 29 ...