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东北玉米上量增加,盘面反弹有限
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 15:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The US corn is expected to have a high yield, but the yield per unit may be further reduced later. The 12 - contract of US corn has strong support at 400 cents per bushel and will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The focus of the market is on the grain - selling rhythm in Northeast China, with expected selling pressure in November. Northeast corn is weak in the short term, while the supply in North China is increasing. The spot price of corn is oscillating at the bottom. The 01 corn futures will oscillate at the bottom with limited short - term rebound, and the 05 is expected to oscillate strongly [4][5]. - Starch: The operating rate of starch factories is rising, but downstream demand is weak, resulting in an increase in inventory. The spot price of starch is relatively weak, and there is still room for the spot price to fall with the large - scale listing of new corn. The 01 corn starch will follow the corn to oscillate at the bottom [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn Situation**: The US corn is expected to see a yield per unit reduction, but the yield is high. The 12 - contract of US corn has strong support at 420 cents per bushel. There is no profit in importing US corn. The market focus is on the Northeast selling rhythm, with expected selling pressure in November. Northeast corn is weak, North China's supply is increasing, and the spot price is at the bottom. The North Port purchase price may fall to around 2070 yuan/ton. The 01 corn futures will oscillate at the bottom with limited rebound, and the 05 is expected to oscillate strongly [4]. - **Starch Situation**: The operating rate of starch factories is rising, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is at a historical high. The spot price of starch is relatively weak, and there is still room for it to fall. The 01 corn starch will follow the corn to oscillate at the bottom [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try to buy the 12 - contract of US corn below 420 cents per bushel. Long - term buy the 05 corn below 2220. Try to buy 01 corn and sell 01 starch, and shrink the spread when it is high. Adopt the strategy of accumulating purchases for the 05 corn at low prices [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International Market - **Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA's September report, although the yield per unit of US corn may be further reduced, the overall supply is still loose. The ending stocks of global and US corn have slightly decreased. The import tariffs of US corn and sorghum in China have been adjusted, but there is still no profit in importing US corn [8][11]. - **Market Position and Ethanol Production**: As of September 23, the non - commercial net short position of US corn increased, and ethanol production increased. The 12 - contract of US corn oscillates around 430 cents per bushel [17]. 3.2.2 Domestic Market - **Inventory and Consumption**: Feed enterprise corn inventory increased but is lower than the same period last year. Deep - processing consumption increased, and inventory decreased slightly but is expected to increase next week. North Port corn inventory increased, and South Port grain inventory decreased [21][22][25]. - **Grain - Selling Progress**: The grain - selling progress is faster than last year. The overall progress of 13 provinces is 22%, 3% higher than the same period last year; the progress of 7 provinces is 18%, 2% higher than the same period last year [28]. - **Starch Market**: The operating rate of starch factories increased, downstream demand was weak, inventory increased significantly year - on - year, and enterprise profits decreased [32]. - **Substitute Market**: The wheat price is basically stable, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened [39]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: From October 30 to November 6, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was - 35 yuan per head, a decrease of 10 yuan per head from last week; the profit of purchasing piglets was - 117 yuan per head, an increase of 13 yuan per head from last week. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was - 0.31 yuan per bird, and the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.52 yuan per catty [48][54]. - **Starch Downstream Consumption**: The operating rate of starch sugar and paper mills increased. The operating rate of F55 high - fructose syrup was 40.67%, an increase of 2.62% from last week; the operating rate of maltose syrup was 43.09%, an increase of 1.48% from last week. The operating rate of corrugated paper was 69.9%, an increase of 0.73% from last week; the operating rate of boxboard paper was 71.47%, an increase of 0.63% from last week [57]. - **Prices of Corn and Substitutes**: The price of wheat in North China is around 2490 yuan/ton, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened [39].
银河期货甲醇日报-20251107
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 14:48
截至 2025 年 11 月 5 日,中国甲醇港口库存总量在 151.71 万吨,较上一期数据增加 1.06 万吨。其中,华东地区累库,库存增加 2.42 万吨;华南地区去库,库存减少 1.36 万 吨。 【逻辑分析】 供应端,煤制甲醇利润在 400 元/吨附近,甲醇开工率高位稳定,国内供应持续宽 松。进口端,美金价格稳定,进口顺挂扩大,伊朗尚未限气,除 kimiya 外全部正常,非 伊开工提升,外盘开工高位,欧美市场小幅下跌,中欧价差继续缩小,东南亚转口窗口 关闭,伊朗 10 月已装 68 万吨.需求端,传统下游进入淡季,开工率回落,MTO 装置开 工率回升,兴兴 69 万吨/年 MTO 装置稳定;南京诚志 1 期 29.5 万吨/年 MTO 装置负荷 不满,其配套 60 万吨/年甲醇装置正常运行;2 期 60 万吨/年 MTO 装置负荷不满,江 苏斯尔邦 80 万吨/年 MTO 装置运行稳定;天津渤化 60 万吨/年(MTO)装置负荷 7 成; 宁波富德 60 万吨/年 DMTO 装置正常负荷不满。库存方面,进口到港略有减少,港口 累库周期结束,基差偏强;内地企业库存窄幅波动。综合来看,国际装置开工率提升 ...
银河期货煤炭日报-20251107
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 14:48
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a coal daily report dated November 7, 2025, focusing on the coal market [1] Group 2: Market Review - On November 7, port market quotes rose. The 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 840 - 850 yuan/ton, 5000 - kcal at 740 - 750 yuan/ton, and 4500 - kcal at 640 - 650 yuan/ton. Different regions had different price ranges for various coal types [2] Group 3: Important Information - In October 2025, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal, a 9.75% year - on - year decrease and a 9.27% decrease from September. From January to October 2025, China imported 38762.30 million tons of coal, a 11% year - on - year decrease [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply: Restrictions on production still affected the market. Coal mine opening rates in major production areas like Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were generally stable. As of November 7, the opening rate in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily coal output of Ordos and Yulin was over 3.8 million tons, and the domestic supply tightened [4] - Import: Affected by the improvement of domestic coal prices, the sentiment in the import market continued to warm up this week. Due to the good price advantage of imported coal, the inquiry enthusiasm of coastal power plants increased significantly, and the market trading atmosphere improved [4] - Demand: Some regions entered the coal - consuming peak season, and the power load showed an obvious upward trend. Most power plants operated at about 70% load, and the available days of power plant inventory remained at a high level. Power plants mainly fulfilled long - term contracts and made only a small amount of necessary purchases in the market [4] - Inventory: Railway transportation returned to normal. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line was 1 million tons, and the number of approved trains by the Hohhot Railway Bureau was around 20. Port inventory was generally stable. As of November 7, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 22.37 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. Coastal power plants had low daily consumption but continuous inventory reduction, while inland power plants had neutral inventory [4] - Forecast: It is expected that coal prices will rise in the short term as the production in major coal - producing areas is low, power plant inventory is decreasing, import profits are available, and both port inflow and outflow are low [4]
银河期货尿素日报-20251107
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 14:48
Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical research report focusing on urea, dated November 7, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, the domestic urea market may experience a rebound due to the news of the fourth batch of export quotas, but in the medium - to - long - term, the urea fundamentals remain loose and the market is expected to run weakly [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures rose, closing at 1667 (+27/+1.65%) [3] - **Spot Market**: Factory prices increased with fair trading volume. The factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1530 - 1550 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1550 - 1570 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1530 - 1540 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1410 - 1490 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On November 7, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.79 tons, an increase of 0.20 tons from the previous working day and 1.44 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.61%, a 3.44% increase from 81.17% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - **Supply Side**: Maintenance devices are gradually resuming operation, and the average daily production has increased to around 19.6 tons. Urea production enterprise inventories have slightly increased by 20,000 tons to around 1.58 million tons, remaining at a high level [5] - **Demand Side**: The market rumor of the fourth batch of export quotas (about 600,000 tons) has increased the influence of the international market on the domestic one. However, the compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grass - roots stocking is winding up, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. The overall domestic demand is showing a downward trend [5] - **Price Trend**: The domestic spot price is oscillating between 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the news of export quotas will boost market sentiment, but in the medium - to - long - term, the market will still be weak due to the approaching end of autumn fertilizers and the upcoming "vacuum period" of domestic demand [5] Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: Short - term rebound [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]
苹果周报:新果陆续入库,果价稳定为主-20251107
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 14:47
Report Title - Apple Weekly Report: New Apples are Gradually Being Stored in Warehouses, and Apple Prices Remain Stable [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This year, apple production has declined, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, and preservation is more difficult. Market expectations suggest that the cold - storage inventory data is likely to be lower. As of November 6, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.68%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.62 percentage points; the inventory was 6.8274 million tons, 17.04% lower than the same period last year. Considering that it's not the peak of storage yet, it's highly likely that this year's inventory will be lower than last year, and the apple quality is relatively poor, so the effective inventory is likely to be low. However, the current futures price is at a high level, with a significant increase in positions and greater market divergence. Short - term risks are relatively high, so it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Summary by Directory 1. Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 1.1 Apple Spot Analysis - This week, the ground trading of new - season late Fuji apples is gradually ending, concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. The storage work is in the later stage. In Shandong, some areas haven't completed the harvest, with many merchants, and striped apples are on the market. In terms of storage progress, Gansu has basically finished, Shaanxi is nearing completion, and in Shandong, some areas are still actively storing. The trading atmosphere in the sales areas is weak, with fewer trucks arriving during the week, and the demand side is under pressure. The prices in major producing areas are generally stable with a slight upward trend in Shandong and a slight decline in Shaanxi due to quality [7]. 1.2 Supply Analysis - As of November 6, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.68%, with an inventory of 6.8274 million tons, 17.04% lower than the same period last year. Shandong's cold - storage capacity utilization rate is 48.95% and is still in the storage process. Shaanxi's is 52.56%, with most areas having completed storage, and some areas still receiving external supplies. The overall storage in Shaanxi is lower than last year due to smaller fruit sizes and higher defect rates. There is a small amount of出库 from cold - storage recently, and there are reports of water - rotting apples in some cold - storages [12]. 1.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of trucks arriving in the morning has significantly decreased compared to last week, with an average of about 24 trucks per day. The new - season late Fuji apples are moving slowly, and there is pressure on daily digestion and some backlog in transit warehouses. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on November 7 was 6.94 yuan per kilogram, slightly lower than last Friday, at a medium - high level in recent years. The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2025 - 2026 production season is temporarily not counted [15]. 1.4 Trading Strategies - Trading Logic: Apple fundamentals are strong, but the current price is high, and there is a large divergence between bulls and bears in the market. It is recommended to wait and see. - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [17]. 2. Weekly Data Tracking 2.1 Apple Supply and Demand Situation - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content, only some historical data charts of apple production, consumption, and export are presented [21]. 2.2 Inventory and Shipment - Similar to the supply analysis, it shows the cold - storage inventory trends of apples in the whole country, Shandong, and Shaanxi over the years, and also the national cold - storage apple shipment trends [24]. 2.3 Spread and Basis - The report presents the historical data charts of 5 - month basis, 10 - month basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, and 1 - month basis, which can be used for analyzing the price differences between different contract months and the relationship between spot and futures prices [28].
粕类周报:粕类周报贸易关系影响增加,粕类盘面大幅震荡-20251107
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 14:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market has fully reflected the positive factors, and the subsequent upward momentum may be limited. However, there are also many uncertainties, and the downward space is expected to be limited if the overall market demand does not decline significantly [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows a volatile trend. The near - term contracts are relatively strong due to the loss of soybean crushing profit, the lack of competitiveness of US soybeans compared with Brazilian soybeans, and the tight supply in the long - term domestic market. The current domestic spot market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, with high inventory and general trading volume [3]. - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market shows a relatively strong trend, mainly affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed supply. However, the high inventory of granular rapeseed meal limits the price increase space [4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the long - term contracts for unilateral trading, expand the MRM spread for arbitrage, and adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles for options [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - The US soybean market shows a high - level volatile trend. The improvement of export prospects has been fully reflected in the price. Further upward movement requires more positive changes in supply. The South American market is under pressure. Brazilian soybean export volume is expected to increase, and the price increase space is limited. Argentina also faces price pressure due to large production [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market has a near - term strong and long - term weak pattern. The near - term strength is due to factors such as crushing profit loss and tight long - term supply. The domestic spot market has a loose supply - demand relationship and high inventory [3]. - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market is affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed import, but the high inventory of granular rapeseed meal restricts the price increase [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish view on the long - term contracts. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread. - Options: Sell wide straddles [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 US Soybeans: Export Prospects Improve, and the Market Remains at a High Level - The US soybean futures market continues to show a high - level volatile trend. The export prospects have improved, but the price increase space is limited without a significant decline in supply. The US soybean harvest progress is expected to be fast, and the single - yield estimate has been slightly adjusted. The soybean crushing profit has declined, and the export is still slow with high uncertainty [8]. 3.2.2 South America: Sowing Slows Down, and Prices Decline - The South American soybean price shows a downward trend. The Brazilian soybean price has declined, and the new - crop price is relatively firm due to the slow sowing progress. The Brazilian soybean sowing is affected by weather, the demand is general, the crushing profit is low, and the export volume is expected to remain high. The Argentine new - crop sowing has started, and the supply is expected to decrease with limited market impact [11]. 3.2.3 Trade Relations: Changes Increase, and Soybean Meal Fluctuates at a High Level - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows a high - level volatile trend. The oil mill operating rate is expected to decline, the inventory pressure is large, and the crushing profit is average. The demand is good due to high livestock and poultry inventory, but the further inventory accumulation space is limited. The reduction of tariffs on US soybeans does not make them competitive, and the long - term soybean import is expected to decrease [14]. 3.2.4 Market Supply: Loose, and Demand Remains at a Low Level - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market shows a relatively strong trend. The market is affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed import. The supply of rapeseed for crushing is low, the inventory is low, and the demand is general. The high inventory of granular rapeseed meal makes the market supply - demand relationship relatively loose, and the price increase space is limited [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes 3.3.1 International Market - The data includes US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit; Brazilian and Argentine soybean monthly export and crushing volume [20][23]. 3.3.2 Foreign Premium - It shows the FOB prices of US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina soybeans and the CNF price of rapeseed [25]. 3.3.3 Macro: Exchange Rate & International Shipping - It involves the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso, and the shipping freight rates of Panamax vessels on different routes [32][38]. 3.3.4 Supply - The data includes soybean and rapeseed import volume and weekly crushing volume [40]. 3.3.5 Demand - It shows the weekly提货量 of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [42]. 3.3.6 Inventory - The data includes the inventory of soybeans, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal [45].
白糖周报:巴西制糖比下降,印度糖出口预期增-20251107
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 14:46
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Internationally, the sugar production in major global producing areas is increasing. Brazil's sugar production is at a historically high level, and India may export more sugar than expected, leading to a weak fundamental situation for raw sugar with a downward long - term trend [3]. - In the domestic market, short - term sugar production is expected to increase, and international sugar prices have dropped significantly. Although the supply and sales pressure is increasing, the tightening of syrup and premix imports and high previous pricing costs support the domestic sugar price. So, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, it will be affected by the international market and is expected to be weak, but the downward space is relatively limited due to policy support [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Core Logic - International sugar prices are weak due to high production in Brazil and potential high - volume exports from India. Domestic sugar prices are affected by both international factors and domestic policies, with short - term fluctuations and long - term weakness [3][4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices have ended the rebound and resumed the downward trend. Domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate, so it is recommended to operate within the range, selling high and covering low [5]. - Arbitrage: Short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar [5]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - In the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar supply - demand gap is significantly narrowing. ISO predicts a 23.1 - million - ton supply gap, while Czarnikow predicts a 740 - million - ton supply surplus [11]. Brazil - Sugar production is expected to remain high at 4502 million tons in the 2025/26 season, slightly higher than the previous estimate [12]. - In the first half of October 2025, the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region decreased by 3 percentage points to 48.24%, and ethanol production showed a mixed trend [14]. - As of October 16, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region increased by 0.89% year - on - year, and the ethanol price center of gravity is expected to decline due to the gasoline price cut [23]. - As of the first half of October, the sugar inventory in the central - southern region increased by 18.2% year - on - year, and the export volume in October increased by 12.8% year - on - year [28]. Thailand - The new sugar season is expected to see a slight increase in production, and the export volume is expected to increase by 100 million tons [32]. India - The ISMA estimates the 2025/26 sugar season's total production at 3435 million tons, and the net production (excluding ethanol use) at 3095 million tons. India is capable of exporting nearly 200 million tons of sugar [41]. - As of July 2025, the 24/25 cumulative net export volume was 75.08 million tons. The November 2025 domestic sales quota decreased by 20 million tons year - on - year [41]. Domestic Market - Sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have mostly started production. Rainfall may increase beet yield but reduce sugar content. Yunnan's sugar mills may start production in mid - November [42]. - Import profits are relatively high. For example, the in - quota profit from Brazil is 1750 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota profit is over 600 yuan/ton [47]. - In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 14.63 million tons. The import of syrup and premix decreased significantly. The predicted out - of - quota raw sugar arrival in October is 11.9 million tons [53]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Data on Brazil's central - southern region includes cumulative cane crushing volume, sugar production, bi - weekly sugar - making ratio, etc. [23][55]. - Data on India includes double - week cumulative sugar production, domestic sales quota, and export volume [41]. - Domestic data includes sugar production progress, import volume of sugar, syrup, and premix [42][53].
生猪周报:生猪周报供应压力继续体现,价格震荡运行-20251107
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 14:45
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current pig market still has certain supply pressure, and subsequent pig prices are expected to fluctuate with relatively limited changes [3]. - The futures market is mainly affected by the near - end spot price, and the overall situation will be in a fluctuating state with a relatively limited increase in supply pressure [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Pig prices across the country continued to decline this week, with obvious supply pressure. Scale enterprises' slaughter volume remained stable, while ordinary farmers initially increased their slaughter volume and then resisted low prices. The number of second - fattening pigs increased, and the slaughter weight also rose, so the overall supply pressure still exists [3]. - In terms of demand, the weekly pig slaughter volume decreased month - on - month, and the frozen product inventory increased. Although the fresh - sale rate and price of pigs increased, the overall demand change was limited [3]. - In the futures market, pig prices continued to fall this week, and the futures market fluctuated. The main influencing factor was the near - end spot price. The subsequent supply pressure may increase slightly, and the market will mainly fluctuate [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [4]. 2. Data Chart & Logical Analysis Pig Prices - Pig prices across the country declined this week. In Northeast China, it was 12 - 12.1 yuan/kg, down 0.4 - 0.5 yuan/kg; in North China, 12.13 - 12.22 yuan/kg, down 0.35 yuan/kg; in Henan and Shandong, 11.93 - 12.02 yuan/kg, down 0.5 - 0.55 yuan/kg; in East China, 11.95 - 12.45 yuan/kg, down 0.45 - 0.6 yuan/kg; in Southwest China, 11.5 yuan/kg, down 0.75 yuan/kg; in Central China, 11.46 - 12.3 yuan/kg, down 0.55 - 0.8 yuan/kg; in South China, 11.07 - 12.36 yuan/kg, down 0.7 - 1 yuan/kg [8]. - The early - week market slaughter pressure increased, and the number of second - fattening pigs decreased. As prices fell, farmers' acceptance of low prices declined, and the supply pressure improved [8]. Slaughter and Consumption Changes - In terms of slaughter, the early - week pig slaughter volume increased significantly, especially among ordinary farmers. The enthusiasm for second - fattening decreased initially and then increased as prices fell. Scale enterprises maintained a normal slaughter rhythm, and their monthly slaughter plan was adjusted down [9]. - The pig slaughter weight increased this week, and the price difference between large and small pigs decreased, partly due to the decrease in second - fattening. The overall supply pressure is expected to continue [9]. - In terms of consumption, the demand change was limited. The pig slaughter volume decreased month - on - month, the frozen product inventory increased, and the apparent consumption declined. However, the pig price was firm, and the fresh - sale rate increased, so the actual demand change was limited [9]. Breeding Profits - Pig breeding profits increased slightly. As of the week of November 7, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 89.21 yuan/head, up 0.21 yuan/head from last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 175.54 yuan/head, up 4.18 yuan/head from last week [15]. - Although pig prices continued to fall, the overall change was limited, and the cost decreased slightly, leading to a slight increase in breeding profits [15]. Sow & Piglet Prices - Piglet prices rebounded slightly. The price of 7 - kg piglets was 198 yuan/head, up 23 yuan/head from last week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets was 284 yuan/kg, up 19 yuan/head from last week. Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing piglets was average [19]. - Sow prices also rebounded slightly. The sow price was 1546 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs increased, and the market's enthusiasm for culling decreased [19]. Reproductive Sow Inventory - According to Yongyi's data, the reproductive sow inventory in October decreased slightly month - on - month, with the comprehensive sample down 0.8% and scale enterprises down 0.77% [22]. - According to Ganglian's data, the reproductive sow inventory in October increased 0.11% month - on - month, with scale enterprises up 0.12% and small and medium - sized farmers down 0.14% [22]. - Considering the breeding profit loss, the number of culled sows may increase [22].
河南花生质量较差,盘面震荡下行
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 14:43
河南花生质量较差 盘面震荡下行 银河农产品 研究员:刘大勇 期货从业证号:F03107370 投资咨询证号:Z0018389 目录 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 10 | 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 花生策略推荐 ◼ 期权策略:可以尝试卖出pk601-P-7600期权策略。 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 10 3 GALAXY FUTURES 22 ...
油脂周报:中国下调美豆进口关税,关注下周一MPOB报告-20251107
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 14:41
油脂周报:中国下调美豆进口关税,关注下周一 MPOB报告 研究员:张盼盼 期货从业证号:F03119783 投资咨询证号:Z0022908 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 近期核心事件&行情回顾: 1.预估机构预计10月马棕增产6%至195万吨,出口增至148万吨,使得库存累库至244万吨。 2.中国官方发布了对于美国商品关税调整的方案,在一年内暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率,保留10%的对 美加征关税税率。 3.本周油脂有所企稳,预计10月马棕继续累库后,后期将开始逐渐小幅去库,但库存仍处中性较为偏高水平。 印棕上调产量预估,预计库存持续偏低,但相较于此前基本面边际转弱。国内棕榈油库存持续累库,供应或将 较为宽松。目前豆油没有一个比较突出的核心矛盾点,豆油价格更多跟随油脂整体走势波动,上涨较为乏力, 但也更为抗跌。短期国内菜籽供应不足,菜油进口量也较为有限,国内菜油预计仍是继续去库,不过市场传会 有澳籽到港,对菜籽供应紧张预期有所缓解。 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国际市场—马棕10月产量表现较好,关注下周一MPOB报告 ...