1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The polyethylene market is under significant supply pressure and should be approached with a bearish outlook. The upstream supply is ample, and the downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, with expected weakening. The upstream profit is expected to remain weak, and the market is likely to experience weak and volatile trends [1][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - Supply pressure is relatively large. Upstream has sufficient supply, and downstream demand is gradually decreasing as the peak season is ending [1][7]. 3.2 Polyethylene Industry Situation 3.2.1 Polyethylene Market Situation - **Production**: This week's production slightly decreased to 64.81 million tons. Next week, due to the restart of many maintenance devices, production may slightly increase to 65.72 million tons [5]. - **Imports and Exports**: The import volume is stable at 23.23 million tons, and the export volume is 2.50 million tons. In September, imports were 102 million tons, and exports were 9.9 million tons, slightly higher than expected [5]. - **Apparent Demand**: This week's calculated apparent demand increased slightly to 86.04 million tons [5]. - **Inventory**: There was a slight de - stocking this week, with the total inventory dropping from 106.40 million tons to 105.91 million tons. Next week, a slight inventory build - up is expected, reaching 109.06 million tons [5]. 3.2.2 Valuation - **Raw Material Cost and Upstream Profit**: Crude oil prices rebounded slightly, and coal prices strengthened slightly. PE costs have been oscillating upwards recently. With raw materials strengthening and finished product prices weakening, upstream profits are expected to remain weak next week [6]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit improved from - 343 to - 155, while HD import profit decreased from 388 to 31. PE export profit weakened, and import profit deteriorated [6]. 3.2.3 Views on Upstream, Mid - stream, and Downstream - **Upstream**: There are many maintenance devices, but production is still high, and the upstream is mainly focused on active sales [7]. - **Mid - stream**: The mid - stream's sales situation is average. After the futures market weakened, futures - cash arbitrageurs actively sold [7]. - **Downstream**: This week's downstream transactions were average. The downstream mainly purchases as needed, and as the peak demand season is ending, demand is expected to decline slightly [7]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis has been oscillating and weakening recently. For example, the North China basis decreased from - 10 to - 40 [6]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The inter - monthly spread has been oscillating. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread decreased from - 33 to - 52 [6]. - **Variety Spread**: HD - LL has been oscillating. The far - month LL - PP spread is recommended to be temporarily exited for observation [6]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Strategy**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. The recommended option strategy is to sell call options [7].

黑色供应周报-铁合金 数据来源:Mysteel;中泰期货整理 | | | 罐 | 万吨 | | | 雄鉄 | 万吨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地区 | 周产 | 环比(吨) | 累计同比 | 地区 | 周产 | 环比(吨) | 累计同比 | | 全国 | 20.74 | (1400) | (17.55) | 全国 | 11.41 | 1260 | 7.41 | | 内蒙古 | 9.90 | (1260) | 2.00 | 内蒙古 | 3.61 | 700 | 4.44 | | 宁夏 | 4.63 | 1225 | 13.07 | 宁夏 | 2.98 | 0 | 10.87 | | 广西 | 0.98 | (665) | (2.94) | 陕西 | 1.73 | 560 | 0.28 | | 贵州 | 1.47 | (210) | (18.61) | 青海 | 1.62 | 0 | (10.32) | | 云南 | 1.60 | 0 | 12.94 | 甘肃 | 1.36 | 0 | 11.31 | | 其他 | 2.16 | ( ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro - economic and Policy**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee proposed major goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. Macroeconomic policies are expected to continue to exert force, and there is a need to actively and steadily resolve local government debt risks. Fiscal policy may enter a bottleneck, while monetary policy is likely to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [6][9]. - **Stock and Bond Markets**: For stock index futures, a strategy of buying on dips can be considered, paying attention to index rotation. For treasury bond futures, an upward - trending and volatile strategy is recommended, focusing on the odds of short - term bonds [9][10]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, in the black metal market, steel and ore are expected to be volatile in the medium - term; in the energy and chemical market, crude oil may rebound in the short - term but will be based on fundamentals in the long - term [13][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - financial - **Stock Index Futures**: A strategy of buying on dips can be continued, paying attention to index rotation. The A - share market was affected by the Fourth Plenary Session and the Sino - US talks in Malaysia. The market is expected to see continuous efforts from macro - policies [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: An upward - trending and volatile strategy is recommended, focusing on the odds of short - term bonds. The market was also affected by the Fourth Plenary Session and the Sino - US talks. Fiscal policy may face a bottleneck, and monetary policy is likely to be loosened [10]. Black Metals - **Steel and Ore**: Steel and ore are expected to be volatile in the medium - term. Iron ore short positions can be reduced on dips. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for rolled plates is mixed. Raw material costs are volatile, and there is a risk of negative feedback if demand is poor [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to be volatile and strong in the short - term. Supply is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of "anti - involution", environmental protection, and safety inspections. The demand for finished products during the "Golden September and Silver October" needs to be observed [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The medium - term outlook for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is bearish. The 23rd saw the ferrosilicon 01 contract rise to 5570 yuan/ton and the silicomanganese 01 contract rise to 5820 yuan/ton, affected by coking coal sentiment [16]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, a bearish strategy can be short - term profitable. For glass, a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the inventory of glass has increased [17][18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile at a high level, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. Alumina prices are expected to continue to decline, and shorting on rallies when the price is at a premium is advisable [20]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc inventories have decreased. The price of zinc can be temporarily observed. Overseas LME zinc inventories continue to decline, and the spot premium has risen rapidly [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term supply disruptions and strong demand support the price, and it is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term [22]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile and weak in a range. Polysilicon will continue to be volatile in a narrow range, with the lower limit supported by spot prices and the upper limit depending on the implementation of capacity merger policies [23]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The international cotton market has uncertainties, and domestic cotton supply is increasing while demand is still weak [27]. - **Sugar**: A bearish rolling operation or a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus, and domestic sugar supply is gradually increasing [28]. - **Eggs**: A strategy of shorting near - month contracts on rallies is recommended. The supply of eggs is still abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The 01 contract is affected by the expectation of capacity reduction and the peak season before the Spring Festival [29]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be volatile. The price of apples in the western region is firm, and attention should be paid to price changes, storage progress, and merchants' purchasing sentiment [32]. - **Corn**: A strategy of shorting the 01 contract or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract is recommended. Corn prices are affected by supply and demand in different regions, and there is a risk of substitution from policy - released wheat [33]. - **Red Dates**: A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. The market price is stable, and the opening price is expected to decline [34]. - **Pigs**: A strategy of shorting the LH2601 contract on rallies is recommended. The supply of pigs is abundant, and although there is some support at the bottom, there is no strong driving force for a significant price increase [35]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil may rebound in the short - term due to geopolitical factors, but will be based on fundamentals in the long - term. Supply is increasing steadily, and demand is expected to weaken [37]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices will follow the trend of crude oil. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The short - term focus is on the impact of sanctions on Russia [38]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins are expected to be volatile and weak from a supply - demand perspective. The current price is relatively low, and there may be a small - scale rebound. Short positions can be reduced appropriately [39]. - **Rubber**: Rubber is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term. A strategy of buying on dips can be considered, but chasing the rise should be cautious [40]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term. There are uncertainties in supply, and a small - scale long - position can be considered after a rebound driving force appears [42]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices are trending strongly, affected by geopolitical factors and seasonal demand. The production has decreased, and the inventory reduction speed is normal [43]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: A short - term strategy of going long with cost can be considered, but the overall fundamentals are still weak. An arbitrage opportunity of PTA 1 - 5 reverse spread can be observed [44]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: LPG may rise in the short - term due to geopolitical factors, but is expected to be weak relative to crude oil in the long - term. The supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to weaken [44]. Others - **Offset Printing Paper**: The market is expected to be volatile and weak. A strategy of selling put options near the factory production cost or selling call options on rebounds can be considered [46]. - **Pulp**: A strategy of going long on the 01 contract on dips can be considered if the spot price is stable. The inventory of pulp has decreased slightly, and the price of white cardboard is expected to increase [47]. - **Logs**: A strategy of going long on the 01 contract on dips can be considered. The cost provides some support, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and freight [47]. - **Urea**: A volatile strategy is recommended. The spot price has increased, and the futures price is volatile and strong. The demand from the compound fertilizer industry in Henan has increased [48]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: A strategy of short - term long - position on dips can be considered, but the upward pressure is large. The price of butadiene is weak, and the profit of butadiene rubber is improving [49].

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 10 月 23 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | 偏空 | 農荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 郑棉 | 聚丙烯 | 护铅 | | 王米 | 焦煤 | 甲醇 | | | PVC | 鸡蛋 | | 棕櫚油 | 菜粕 | 直掲 | | 沪金 | 트 | 热轧卷板 | | 沪铝 | 豆粕 | 塑料 | | 护银 | 锰硅 | 橡胶 | | | 菜油 | | | | 铁矿石 | | | | 玻璃 | | | | 螺纹钢 | | | | PTA | | | | 玉米淀粉 | | | | 沥青 | | | ...

晨会纪要 2025 年 10 月 22 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号： [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 液化石油气 | 沥青 | 乙二醇 | | | | 原油 | 合成橡胶 | 短纤 | | | | 铝 | 中证500股指期货 | PTA | | | | 氧化铝 | 中证1000指数期货 | 瓶片 | | | | 白糖 | 沪深300股指期货 | 对二甲苯 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 燃油 | 橡胶 | | | | 纸浆 | 烧碱 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 纯碱 | 棉纱 | 甲醇 | | | | | 棉花 | 塑料 | | | | | 三十债 | | | | | | 十债 | | | | | | 五债 ...

2025.10. 21 原木周报 中泰期货股份有限公司 高萍 从业资格号：F3002581 交易咨询证号：Z0012806 目录 CONTENTS 1 原木综述 2 原木平衡表解析 3 原木供需解析 4 原木成本利润 | | | 项目 | 单位 | 2025年9月 | 2025年8月 | 环比 | 累计 | 预估下周/月 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/10 | | 同比 | 根据三方数据线性预估 | | | | 国外 | 到船量 | 条 | 12 | 7 | 5 | —— | 12条 | | | | | 到港量 | 万方 | 41.8 | 25 | 16.8 | | 43万方 | | | | | 针叶原木进口量 | | 200.13 | 172.50 | 27.63 | -7% | | 本周预计到港回升，整体10月属进口旺季，预计后 | | | | 辐射松进口量 | | 145.12 | 129.70 | 15.42 | -6% | | 续到 ...

2 0 2 5 . 1 0 . 2 1 胶版印刷纸周报 中泰期货股份有限公司 高萍 从业资格号：F3002581 交易咨询证号：Z0012806 目录 CONTENTS 1 胶版印刷纸综述 2 胶版印刷纸平衡表解析 3 胶版印刷纸供需解析 4 胶版印刷纸成本利润 5 胶版印刷纸价格与价差 Part 1 胶版印刷纸综述 1.1 胶版印刷纸综述——供需库 | | 项目 | 单位 | 2025年9月 | 2025年8月 | 2024年7月 | 环比 | 同比 | 累计同比 | 预估下周/月 (根据三方数据线性预估) | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/10 | 2024/10/17 | | | | | | | | 产量 国产 （周） 产能利用率 | 万吨 % | 20.30 53.00 | 19.00 49.40 | 19.30 58.30 | 1.30 3.60 | 1.00 -5.30 | -7.21% —— | 略增 略增 | | | 供给 ...

中美谈判前，铜价宽幅震荡运行 沪铜周度报告·2025年10月21日 姓名：安冉 从业资格号：F3049294 交易咨询证书号：Z0017020 姓名：王海聪 从业资格号：F03101206 交易咨询证书号：Z0022465 联系人：陈天敏 从业资格号：F03134700 目 录 01 周度综述：宏观/周度数据/多空逻辑/风险提示 02 铜产业链解析：价格/价差/成本/利润/供给/需求/库存 CONTENTS 资金持仓：外盘持仓CFTC/LME 03 数据来源：wind SMM 中泰期货整理 Part 01 周度综述 ➢ 周度综述（10.13-10.17） ➢ 本页数据为2025.10.13-2025.10.17日期内周度数据对比 | | 项目 | | | | | 周度数据 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上期 | 当期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | | 铜精矿现货TC（美元/ | -40.36 | -40.97 | -0.61 | -1.51% | 周内铜精矿市场成交较为冷清 ，TC小幅回落 后续重点关注11月长单谈判的结果 。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides a rating table for different commodities, categorizing them as bearish, neutral, or bullish. For example, palm oil, soybeans, and gold are rated bearish; rubber, hot-rolled coils, and rapeseed oil are rated neutral; and rapeseed meal, aluminum, and soybean meal are rated bullish [6]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as macroeconomic data, trade tensions, and policy changes. The report suggests different trading strategies for various commodities based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [13][15][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee started on October 20. China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8%, and industrial production exceeded expectations. The 70 - city housing prices showed a mixed trend, with most cities having a decline in the secondary - housing market and a narrowing year - on - year decline in new - housing prices. The 10 - month LPR remained unchanged. The US and Australia signed a rare - earth and key - mineral agreement, and there are developments in the US government shutdown and international trade tensions [8][9][10]. 3.2 Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Consider a strategy of buying on dips and focus on index rotation. Although the market rebounded due to improved risk appetite, trading volume was weak. The macro - economic situation showed a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and it is expected that monetary policy may be further loosened in the fourth quarter [13]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Adopt a strategy of expecting a slow rise and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds. The market was affected by risk - appetite changes and interest - rate cut expectations. The overall economic situation is similar to that of stock index futures, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [15]. 3.3 Black Commodities - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel may experience a shock adjustment, and iron - ore short positions can be reduced on dips. The market is affected by factors such as trade frictions, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is relatively good. Steel mills' profits are low, and iron - ore prices are volatile [17][18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Supply is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of production restrictions and safety inspections. The demand from downstream steel mills is relatively strong, but the weak profit of steel mills restricts the upward space [19][20]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron is stronger than manganese silicon from the perspective of supply - demand and cost. The reasonable valuation range of the spread between the two is between - 450 and - 250 yuan/ton. There is no recommended unilateral strategy for now [21]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, hold a bearish view or take short - term profits. For glass, adopt a wait - and - see approach. Soda - ash supply is at a high level, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Glass is affected by the market confidence and the demand in the peak season [22]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Alumina is expected to continue to decline, and it is advisable to short on rallies when the futures price is at a premium [24]. - **Zinc**: Hold short positions. Domestic zinc inventories have increased, and the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and inventory changes [24]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It will mainly fluctuate in the short term. Supply is increasing, and demand is relatively strong in the short term. The impact of export controls on short - term demand is limited [26]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It will fluctuate weakly in a range. Although coal prices provide cost support, the supply - demand situation is weak due to the resumption of production by large enterprises and the expected reduction of production by polysilicon enterprises in the dry season [27]. - **Polysilicon**: It will continue to fluctuate narrowly in a range. The spot price provides support, and the upper limit depends on the implementation of capacity - merger policies [28]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The market is affected by trade tensions and the US government shutdown [30]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply is abundant, but the cost provides support. Consider a short - rolling strategy or a wait - and - see approach. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus [32][33]. - **Eggs**: Short near - month contracts on rallies. The supply of eggs is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The process of reducing production capacity is slow [35]. - **Apples**: The price will fluctuate. The price in the western region is firm, and the market is affected by factors such as the listing volume [37]. - **Corn**: Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. The new - season corn supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure, but low inventory and some purchasing support the price [38]. - **Red Dates**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The market price is stable, and the consumption is weak, but the opening - price expectation is high [39]. - **Pigs**: Short the LH2601 contract on rallies. The supply pressure continues, but there are some factors supporting the price at the bottom [39][40]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Hold existing short positions. The supply - demand situation is bearish, with increasing supply and weakening demand. The price may have a small - scale repair before the Sino - US summit [42]. - **Fuel Oil**: Its price will follow the trend of crude oil. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is affected by geopolitical risks and macro - economic expectations [44]. - **Plastics**: It will fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure is large, but the current price is relatively low, so it is advisable to reduce short positions and wait for a rebound to short again [45]. - **Rubber**: It will mainly fluctuate. Consider a double - selling strategy in the short term. The inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by factors such as raw - material supply and international macro - situation [46]. - **Methanol**: Adopt a weakly - fluctuating strategy and wait for a rebound to go long in small amounts. The market is affected by factors such as the arrival of Iranian goods [47]. - **Caustic Soda**: Adopt a fluctuating strategy. The price is affected by factors such as the price of caustic soda and liquid chlorine, and the demand from the alumina industry [48]. - **Asphalt**: Its price will follow the trend of crude oil. The current demand is in the peak season, and the production and inventory situation is normal [49]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The products in the polyester industry chain will continue to fluctuate weakly. The supply - demand situation of each product is different, but they are all affected by factors such as oil prices and new - device commissioning [50]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: It will be bearish in the long term. Although it is strong in the short term, the supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to weaken [51]. 3.7 Paper and Wood Products - **Offset Printing Paper**: It will fluctuate weakly. The supply may be excessive due to the resumption of production by Chenming during the off - season [52]. - **Paper Pulp**: Observe the de - stocking situation at ports and spot transactions. If the spot price is stable, consider going long on the far - month 01 contract [54]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly fluctuating. Consider going long on the 01 contract on dips, and focus on downstream demand and freight - related factors [55]. 3.8 Others - **Urea**: Adopt a fluctuating strategy. Pay attention to the impact of cost factors on futures prices, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [56]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It will fluctuate, and be cautious about chasing the rise. The downstream procurement is weak, and the price is under pressure [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic situation shows a stable and slightly upward trend, but there are still uncertainties. Fiscal policy may enter a bottleneck period, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be further loosened in the fourth quarter. - Different industries have different market trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the black industry, steel may experience shock adjustments, while coal and coke may continue to be shock - strong in the short term; in the agricultural product industry, cotton and sugar face supply - side pressure, while eggs have a high - inventory and weak - demand situation. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - On October 18, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [8]. - The State Council executive meeting deployed measures to expand green trade and studied agricultural production work, and proposed to promote cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement in logistics [8]. - The opening ceremony of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference is scheduled for October 27, with central bank and regulatory leaders attending and relevant policies to be released [8]. - In the first three quarters, national fiscal revenue was 16.39 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, and fiscal expenditure was 20.81 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [8]. - The Ministry of Finance will arrange 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit for local use and will advance the release of the new local government debt limit for 2026 [9]. - NVIDIA has completely left the Chinese market due to US export controls [9]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the price limit and margin ratio of gold and silver futures contracts from October 21 [9]. - US President Trump admitted that the strategy of threatening China with high tariffs is unsustainable and may impact the US economy [9]. - Trump signed an executive order to impose new tariffs on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks and parts from November 1 [10]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market declined on Friday, with popular sectors such as new energy and AI performing weakly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.95% to 3839.76 points, and the daily trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 300, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index also declined [12]. - Inflation data was basically in line with expectations. Food prices dragged down CPI, with pork prices dropping 17.0%. Core CPI rose to 1.0%. PPI improvement was unbalanced, and domestic oil - related industries' prices declined due to falling international oil prices [12]. - Financial data showed that social financing continued to decline, M2 decreased significantly, while M1 increased substantially, and credit was weak. Fiscal policy may face a bottleneck, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be loosened in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [12][13]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market was moderately loose, and the bond market was optimistic due to concerns about the US credit market. Inflation and financial data were similar to those of stock index futures. It is recommended to adopt a shock - rising strategy and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds [14][15]. Black Industry Steel and Iron Ore - The improvement in steel apparent demand led to a small rebound in black commodities, but market transactions were weak, and prices remained weak. Considering macro factors, trade frictions may cool down, and the impact of policies before the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is limited. The market should focus on supply - demand fundamentals [15]. - In terms of supply - demand, real - estate sales and new construction were weak, infrastructure projects had capital pressure, and overall building material demand was weak. However, the demand for rolled plates was acceptable, but high inventories of galvanized and cold - rolled products affected steel valuations. Steel may experience shock adjustments, and iron ore short positions can be reduced on dips [15][16]. Coal and Coke - Short - term coal and coke supply gradually recovered, but "anti - involution" and environmental protection restrictions still existed, and futures prices continued to fluctuate at high levels. Under policy constraints, coal supply contraction expectations were strengthened, but weak steel mill profits and less - than - ideal peak - season demand restricted the upward space. Double - coke prices may continue to be shock - strong in the short term [17]. Ferroalloys - On the 17th, ferrosilicon fluctuated widely at high levels, and ferromanganese silicon's center moved further down. From the perspective of supply - demand and cost support, ferrosilicon was stronger than ferromanganese silicon. The reasonable valuation range of the 01 spread between the two was between - 450 and - 250 yuan/ton. There is no clear unilateral strategy [18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, market risk aversion increased. Aluminum demand was resilient, and inventory was good. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate at high levels, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. Alumina had some production cuts due to losses, but the total output and inventory were still high. It is expected to continue to bottom out, and it is recommended to sell on rallies when the futures price is at a premium [21]. Shanghai Zinc - On the night of the 17th, Shanghai zinc prices weakened. The main reasons were repeated domestic inventories and lack of market guidance, and spot transactions were poor. Overseas prices were strong due to the continuous decline of LME inventories. It is recommended to hold short positions [22]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate supply showed an increasing trend, and short - term destocking supported prices. However, the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, and it will mainly oscillate in the short term [23]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon's supply - demand contradiction was not prominent. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range due to the expected increase in production by leading manufacturers and the expected reduction in production by polysilicon manufacturers during the dry season. Polysilicon's spot price was firm, and it is expected to continue to oscillate within a narrow range, with the upper limit depending on the implementation of capacity - merger policies [24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - ICE cotton prices rebounded slightly due to signs of easing trade tensions, but demand concerns still existed due to the US government shutdown. Domestic cotton prices rebounded due to rising raw cotton prices, but supply pressure limited the rebound space. It is recommended to sell on rallies [26][27]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar prices fell under pressure, and domestic sugar prices were under pressure due to global sugar supply surplus and increased domestic imports. However, the cost provided some support. It is recommended to use a short - selling rolling strategy [27][28]. Eggs - Egg spot prices were stable and weak, and futures prices continued to decline slightly. The high inventory of laying hens and slow capacity reduction made it difficult to change the supply - demand pattern in the short term. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts [29][30]. Apples - The prices of late - maturing Fuji apples in the eastern and western regions were stable, and the futures market oscillated strongly. It is expected to continue to oscillate [30][31]. Corn - The decline in domestic corn spot prices slowed down, and futures prices rose and then fell. New - season corn supply increased, putting pressure on prices. However, purchases by some state - owned grain depots may support prices. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 07 contract or sell out - of - the - money call options for the 01 contract [31][32]. Red Dates - The market price of red dates was stable, and the futures market showed a strong trend. It is recommended to wait and see [33]. Pigs - Pig prices fluctuated at the bottom. Supply pressure continued, but factors stabilizing prices increased. It is recommended to hold short positions in near - month contracts and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [34]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - Although the Russia - Ukraine situation may ease, geopolitical uncertainties still exist, and international oil prices rose. However, due to increasing supply and weakening demand, oil prices are expected to decline steadily. It is recommended to hold existing short positions [34][35]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices fluctuated with crude oil prices. The supply was loose, and the demand was weak. It is expected to continue to fluctuate with oil prices [36][37]. Plastics - Polyolefins had high supply pressure and weak demand. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to reduce short positions at the current low - valuation level and wait for a rebound to re - enter short positions [38]. Rubber - The international economic outlook was uncertain, and the commodity sector was weak. NR was relatively stronger than RU due to warehouse - receipt issues. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up and consider selling call options on RU after a rebound [39]. Methanol - Methanol prices fluctuated greatly due to the game around the arrival of Iranian goods. Although the current situation is weak, there are positive factors such as winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to adopt a weak - shock strategy and wait for a rebound to enter long positions [40][42]. Caustic Soda - In the spot market, the prices of different concentrations of caustic soda in Shandong changed differently, and the futures market declined due to rumors of alumina production cuts. It is recommended to maintain a shock - strong strategy [40][41]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices fluctuated with crude oil prices. The market was cautious due to uncertainties before the Sino - US summit. Asphalt's fundamentals were stable, and it is expected to follow oil prices [43]. Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester product prices declined due to rising Sino - US trade tensions and falling oil prices. Although trade tensions may ease, the supply - demand situation has not improved. It is expected to rebound in the short term but remain pessimistic in the long term [44]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG prices declined. The supply was abundant, and the demand was expected to weaken. It is recommended to maintain a short - term weak strategy relative to crude oil and a long - term short strategy [45]. Paper - related Industries Offset Printing Paper - In the off - season, factory ex - factory prices were lowered, and market transactions were based on rigid demand. With the resumption of production by Chenming, supply may be excessive, but the low - valuation futures market may support prices. It is recommended to try long positions near the production cost or sell put options [46]. Pulp - Pulp spot prices were stable. European inventory increased, and consumption also changed. The futures market was under pressure but had some support. It is recommended to observe port destocking and spot transactions and consider buying long - term 01 contracts on dips [47]. Logs - Log spot prices were stable, but demand from sawmills was weak. Supply pressure increased due to expected concentrated arrivals. It is recommended to observe the market and be cautious when trading [48]. Other Industries Urea - Urea spot prices were stable, and the market was weak. Futures prices were relatively strong due to expectations of increased export quotas. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [49]. Synthetic Rubber - The inventory of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber increased, and prices were under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [50].