1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is currently in the physiological fruit - dropping period of Xinjiang red dates. The temperature in the production area is suitable for fruit setting, and there is no concentrated fruit - dropping. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation and weather changes. In the sales area, the arrival volume has increased, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved, and spot market transactions have improved. [4] - Bullish factors include partial production reduction in some surveyed production areas and potentially poor quality of new - season red dates. Bearish factors are high inventory, sufficient market supply, the consumption off - season from July to August, and a likely normal to slightly small - yield year according to the survey results. [4] - Recommended trading strategies are to short at high prices for single - side trading, go long on the 09 contract and short on the 01 contract for inter - month trading, with no recommendations for volatility and options trading. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price (Main Production Areas) - The average purchase price of grey dates in Xinjiang's main production area is 5.33 yuan/kg. The mainstream transaction prices in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar are 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6.0 yuan/kg respectively. [6] Spot Price (Main Sales Areas) - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, the arrival volume has increased compared to last week, prices have fluctuated slightly, and high - quality goods have stronger prices. The reference prices for different grades are: super - special grade 10.50 - 11.50 yuan/kg, special grade 9.50 - 10.50 yuan/kg, first - grade 8.60 - 9.00 yuan/kg, second - grade 7.50 - 7.80 yuan/kg, and third - grade 6.10 - 6.30 yuan/kg. [10] Spot Price (Hebei Cangzhou) - The spot grade price difference in the Hebei Cangzhou market is stable compared to the previous week. The price difference between special grade and first - grade is 1.11 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from last week; the price difference between first - grade and second - grade is 1.0 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg from last week. [13] Sample Point Weekly Inventory - As of July 25, the physical inventory of 36 sample points is 10,090 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week, a 2.23% decrease from the previous week and a 73.07% increase from the same period last year. [16] Sales Profit (Xinjiang Main Production Area) - The average purchase price of grey dates in Xinjiang's main production area is 5.33 yuan/kg, the first - grade finished product price in the Hebei sales area is 8.60 - 8.90 yuan/kg, the freight from Aksu to Cangzhou is 380 - 400 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 1.92 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from last week. [19] Futures - Spot Basis (Special Grade, First Grade) - The futures price of red dates has weakened, the spot price has been stable, and the futures - spot basis has strengthened slightly. The first - grade spot in Cangzhou has a discount of 545 yuan/ton compared to the standard delivery product. [22] Contract Spread - The spread between the 1 - 5 contracts has narrowed, with a discount of 225 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 contracts have a premium of 1235 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 contracts are oscillating, with a discount of 1010 yuan/ton. There is a potential positive - spread arbitrage opportunity for the 9 - 1 contracts. [25] Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of July 25, the number of registered warehouse receipts for red dates is 8813, the number of valid forecasts is 1455, totaling 10268, equivalent to 51340 tons of spot goods. [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (from July 18 - 24, 2025), the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a 1.4% increase from last week. It is expected that next week's capacity utilization rate will remain around 84%, with a weekly output of about 822,900 tons [5]. - The alumina production in China this week was 1.831 million tons, showing an increase compared to last week's 1.792 million tons. The procurement price of liquid caustic soda by large - scale alumina factories in Shandong remained stable at 770 yuan/ton, with the equivalent 100% caustic soda price at 2,406 yuan/ton [5]. - The production of viscose staple fiber in the current cycle (from July 18 - 24, 2025) was 85,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons from last week. The physical inventory of viscose staple fiber factories decreased by 3,200 tons compared to the previous period but increased by 79,900 tons year - on - year [5]. - As of July 24, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 58.9%, remaining the same as the previous period. The operating rate in the printing and dyeing industry was weak and volatile, and it is expected to remain at a low level in the next period [5]. - In May, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 255,900 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 75,000 tons [5]. - As of July 24, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 408,400 tons (wet tons), a 6.38% increase from the previous period and a 4.29% increase year - on - year [5]. - Last Friday, the average price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2,594 yuan/ton, the average price of liquid chlorine was - 350 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit was 170 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [5]. - Last week, the spot price of caustic soda in Shandong fluctuated weakly. The price of 50% liquid caustic soda was relatively weaker than that of 32% liquid caustic soda. The price of liquid chlorine fluctuated sharply. The futures price of caustic soda first rose significantly and then fell back on Friday night [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda enterprises increased in most regions this week, with some regions having new maintenance or production reduction. Next week, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will remain stable around 84%, with a weekly output of about 822,900 tons [5]. - **Demand**: Alumina production increased, viscose staple fiber production increased slightly, the printing and dyeing industry was weak, and the export volume in May was reported. The demand from downstream industries was generally weak [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises increased both compared to the previous period and year - on - year, and the capacity - to - inventory ratio also increased in most regions [5]. - **Profit**: The chlor - alkali profit in Shandong last week was at a historically low level [5]. - **Price**: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong fluctuated weakly last week, and the futures price first rose significantly and then fell back [5]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the historical price trends of Shandong's 32% and 50% caustic soda, flake caustic soda, export caustic soda, caustic soda futures, as well as the prices of raw salt and coal, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [7][10][13][16]. 3.3 Supply - **Production and Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical data of China's weekly caustic soda production, operating rate, and device loss volume, as well as the cumulative production and its year - on - year changes [21]. - **Inventory and Profit**: It presents the historical data of the liquid caustic soda inventory of sample enterprises, caustic soda futures warehouse receipts, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong [24]. - **Maintenance Plan**: Lists the current and future maintenance plans of chlor - alkali devices in various regions [26]. 3.4 Demand - **Alumina Industry**: Displays the production, cash profit, liquid caustic soda procurement price, and inventory data of the alumina industry [29][32]. - **Textile Industry**: Presents the capacity utilization rate, market price, factory inventory, and inventory - available days of viscose staple fiber, as well as the operating rate, order days, and finished - product inventory - available days of textile enterprises, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing factories in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [35][38]. - **Paper Pulp and Paper Industry**: Shows the production of paper pulp and paper products, the inventory - available days of upstream factories' paper products, and the cumulative production and its year - on - year changes of Chinese machine - made paper and cardboard [41]. - **Export**: Displays the monthly and cumulative export volume data of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda in China [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, urea spot prices are weakly operating. In the futures market, last week, urea futures showed an N - shaped trend. Looking ahead to next week, in an environment where commodity futures decline significantly, urea futures are expected to open and move lower. There is a possibility of a large outflow of cash - and - carry arbitrage goods, leading to a negative feedback loop, and the weak situation is expected to be maintained in the short term. However, domestic urea production has decreased month - on - month, external demand has increased month - on - month, and domestic demand has strengthened month - on - month. It is recommended to actively close short positions after a significant decline in futures and wait for opportunities to enter long positions [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: From July 17 - 24, 2025, the weekly average daily output was 19.35 million tons. It is expected to be 19.00 million tons from July 25 - 31, 19.00 million tons from August 1 - 7, and 19.43 million tons from August 8 - 14. Last week, 4 new enterprises stopped production and 4 resumed, and this week, 2 enterprises are expected to conduct maintenance and 2 stopped enterprises are expected to resume production [5]. - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand is gradually ending and will basically disappear later [5]. - **Demand**: The compound fertilizer start - up rate was 32.55% from July 17 - 24, 2025, and is expected to increase slowly. In the 30th week of 2025 (July 18 - 24), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 33.58%, a month - on - month increase of 1.03 percentage points. From January to June, the cumulative domestic thermal power generation was 2940.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Later, as the temperature rises, the consumption of urea for thermal power denitrification will increase [5]. - **Inventory**: On July 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 858,800 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this cycle, but the decline narrowed [5]. - **Cost**: The production cost of the fixed - bed process in urea factories in Shanxi was 1300 yuan, and the anthracite price fluctuated [5]. - **Profit**: The production profit of the fixed - bed process in urea factories in Shanxi was 390 yuan and is expected to increase. The current profit is at a reasonable level, and with potential exports, the profit is expected to strengthen [5]. - **Strategy**: After a significant decline, maintain a long - position thinking for UR2509 and UR2509 - UR2601. For options, use a cumulative purchase option for UR2509 [5]. 3.2 Price - **Domestic Urea Spot Price**: Data on domestic urea spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, and different particle sizes in Shanxi from 2021 - 2025 are presented [7][8]. - **International Urea Price and Spread**: Data on international urea prices, spreads such as small - particle urea (Shandong factory port - collection profit), small - particle urea (Middle East - Shandong factory port - collection cost), and FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East from 2021 - 2025 are presented [9][10]. - **Phosphate and Potassium Fertilizer Prices**: Data on the prices of phosphate and potassium fertilizers such as Hubei monoammonium phosphate, Hubei diammonium phosphate, and Shandong potassium chloride from 2021 - 2025 are presented [11][12]. - **Urea Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - month Spread**: Data on urea futures prices, basis, and inter - month spreads from 2021 - 2025 are presented [14][15]. 3.3 Supply - **Urea Production**: Data on the weekly average daily production of urea, natural - gas - made urea, and coal - made urea from 2021 - 2025 are presented [17][18]. - **Urea Cost and Profit**: Data on the cost of anthracite and bituminous coal, and the marginal profit of the fixed - bed process in Shanxi and the new process in Henan from 2021 - 2025 are presented [20][21]. - **Urea Inventory and Apparent Consumption**: Data on urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, domestic average daily apparent consumption, and enterprise - perspective average daily apparent consumption from 2021 - 2025 are presented [23][24]. 3.4 Demand - **Compound Fertilizer Industry**: Data on the start - up rate and inventory of compound fertilizer enterprises from 2021 - 2025 are presented [27][28]. - **Melamine Industry**: Data on the weekly output, price, and melamine/urea price ratio of melamine from 2021 - 2025 are presented [29][30]. - **Export**: Data on China's monthly and cumulative monthly urea export volume and year - on - year changes from 2021 - 2025 are presented [31][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices weakened at the end of the week. With the approaching deadline of the trade - war, the market remains worried. After the OPEC+ production increase in August, the market also anticipates a continued increase in September, with relatively high certainty on the supply side. The peak - season on the demand side is approaching, and major mainstream institutions have significant differences in their expectations for the peak - season, but the peak - season demand cannot be disproven at present. It is necessary to continue closely monitoring the market inventory. If inventory accumulates continuously, the market's peak - season demand expectation will be disappointed, and oil prices are expected to return to the trading logic of supply surplus. Overall, at present, crude oil lacks driving forces and is likely to show weak fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, it is advisable to try short - selling at high prices [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Indicators and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Key Event Review - **Fundamentals**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending July 18 was - 577,000 barrels, compared with an expected - 646,000 barrels and a previous value of 839,000 barrels. As of the week ending July 21, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 971,000 barrels to 20.525 million barrels. The EIA report showed that US crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day in the week ending July 18, while domestic crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day. Singapore's fuel oil inventory reached a two - week high and imports hit a three - month high, with a sharp decrease in the proportion of Asian sources and a sharp drop in Chinese demand. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is unlikely to change the existing production - increase plan at the Monday meeting. The total number of US oil rigs for the week ending July 25 was 415, down from the previous value of 422 [11][12]. - **Macroeconomics**: The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively. In June, China's total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 were 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000. The US S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value in July was 55.2, and the Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5. The annualized total number of new home sales in the US in June was 627,000. The UK's seasonally adjusted retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.9% [15][17]. - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Iran will hold a tripartite meeting with China and Russia on the Iranian nuclear program. Russian President Putin will visit China in September to attend the 80th anniversary commemorative activities of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War. The next round of China - US talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil. The US will withdraw from the Doha cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas [19][22]. - **Institutional Forecasts**: Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the second half of 2025 by $5 to $66 per barrel and the WTI crude oil price forecast to $63 per barrel, previously $57 per barrel. It maintains the forecast based on supply surplus, expecting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to fall to an average of $56 and $52 per barrel respectively in 2026 [22]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar - From July 27 to July 30, He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice - Premier of the State Council, will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden. On July 30, data on the US API and EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 25 will be released. On July 30, data on the US ADP employment in July will be released. On July 31, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (upper limit), initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26, and the annual rate of the core PCE price index in June will be announced. On August 1, data on the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in July will be released. On August 2, data on the total number of US oil rigs for the week ending August 1 will be released [23]. 3.2 Price Basic Data - **Crude Oil Basic Prices**: The prices of Brent, WTI, SC main contract, and Middle - East main contract are presented for different dates from 2024 to 2025, along with their weekly, monthly, and annual changes and change rates [32]. - **Crude Oil Forward Prices**: The forward curves of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oils are shown for different dates in 2025 [55]. - **Crude Oil Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oils, including different contract combinations, are presented, along with the prices of SC contracts [58][60]. - **Crude Oil盘面 Spreads**: The spreads between Brent and WTI, Brent and Oman, Brent main contract and SC main contract, and the quality spread EFS (Brent - Dubai) are shown [66][69]. - **Main Oil Grade Premiums and Discounts**: The premiums and discounts of Iranian, Saudi, Iraqi, and Kuwaiti oil grades to Asia, as well as the premiums and discounts of some oil grades in Shandong refineries, are presented [72][86]. - **US Dollar Index**: The relationship between the US dollar index and WTI prices is shown [88]. 3.3 World Crude Oil Supply and Demand - **OPEC Crude Oil Supply - Demand Forecast**: OPEC's world supply - demand balance sheets from 2022 to 2026 are presented, including production, demand, supply - demand differences, and inventory data. The production forecasts of OPEC+ are also shown [96][97][99]. - **EIA Crude Oil Supply - Demand Forecast**: EIA's world supply - demand balance sheets from 2024 to 2026 are presented, including supply, demand, net inventory extraction, and end - of - period inventory data. The supply - demand differences for different quarters are also shown [108][110][111]. - **OPEC Main Oil - Producing Countries' Production and Exports**: The monthly production data of OPEC's total production, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Venezuela, Iran, and Russia are presented, as well as Iran's crude oil export data [115][117][119].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Supply-side disruptions continue to ferment, and the market rises rapidly by the daily limit - Weekly report on lithium carbonate by Zhongtai Futures' Non-ferrous Metals & New Materials Team (July 27, 2025) [1] - Research Team: An Ran, Wang Haicong [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 3: Core Views - In July, the overall incremental production from restarts exceeded the reduction from maintenance, but the suspension of Zangge Lithium Industry in the salt lake segment led to a decline in overall production. The downstream demand was mainly based on on-demand procurement, showing differentiation and overall performing better than expected. The price of lithium carbonate rose rapidly, but the high price suppressed downstream demand, and there was also speculative demand. If the production suspension is implemented, it will affect the supply-demand pattern, and the surplus volume will be significantly reduced. If the production suspension expectation is not fulfilled, the fundamental surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the price of lithium carbonate will face a significant decline. In the short term, the price is boosted by news and shows emotional upward movement, and it will mainly fluctuate strongly until the expectation is verified. It is necessary to beware of the price decline risk caused by the failure of the production suspension expectation, and the short-term volatility will continue to increase. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13] Group 4: Section Summaries Part 01: Lithium Carbonate Overview - Supply: The overall incremental production from restarts in July exceeded the reduction from maintenance, but the suspension of Zangge Lithium Industry in the salt lake segment led to a 13.25% decline in salt lake production. The production at the mica end increased by 0.29%, and the production at the recycling end decreased by 0.35%. The import volume remained unchanged [12] - Demand: The weekly apparent demand decreased by 3.64%, and the available days of downstream inventory increased by 0.10%. The overall demand performance was better than expected [12] - Inventory: The lithium ore inventory at ports and warehouses decreased, while the overall inventory increased slightly. The inventory shifted from lithium salt plants to traders, and the surplus pattern continued to accumulate inventory. After the price rose rapidly, the warehouse receipts increased, but the growth rate still needed to be observed [12] - Cost and Profit: The cost of externally purchased spodumene and mica increased, and the profit of externally purchased spodumene decreased by 10.12%, while the profit of externally purchased mica increased by 1.93% [12] Part 02: Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain Prices - Lithium Carbonate Market: The report presents data on the futures and spot prices, basis, trading volume, and open interest of lithium carbonate [16] - Lithium Ore Prices: It shows the prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica [16] - Lithium Carbonate Prices: The prices of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, as well as the price difference between them, are provided. The production cost and profit of lithium carbonate are also analyzed [16] - Lithium Hydroxide Prices: The prices of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium hydroxide and their price differences are presented [16] - Cathode Material Prices: The prices of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate are shown [16] - Power Battery Cell Prices: The prices of square lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and 523 square ternary cells are provided [16] Part 03: Lithium Carbonate Upstream Supply Environment - Lithium Concentrate: The import volume of lithium concentrate, especially from Australia, is analyzed, including cumulative and monthly data and their changes [62] - Lithium Carbonate: The production capacity, monthly and weekly operating rates, production volume, production volume by raw material, import and export volume, and total supply of lithium carbonate are presented [62] Part 04: Lithium Carbonate Downstream Consumption Environment - Apparent Demand: The apparent consumption of lithium carbonate is analyzed [100] - Real Demand: The production volume, monthly operating rate, and production volume by grade of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, manganese acid lithium, and lithium hexafluorophosphate are presented [100] - Terminal Demand: The production volume, shipment volume, inventory-to-sales ratio, and installation volume of lithium batteries, power batteries, energy storage batteries, and consumer batteries are analyzed. The production and sales of new energy vehicles and their penetration rate, as well as the winning bid scale and capacity of energy storage projects, are also provided [100] Part 05: Lithium Carbonate Inventory Structure - Weekly Inventory: The warehouse receipts by region, smelter inventory, downstream cathode material factory inventory, other inventory, and total inventory of lithium carbonate are presented [194] - Monthly Inventory: The smelter inventory, downstream cathode material factory inventory, and total inventory of lithium carbonate on a monthly basis are analyzed [194] - Upstream and Downstream Inventory: The inventory of lithium ore, finished product inventory of lithium iron phosphate, and finished product inventory of ternary materials are provided [194]

市场情绪带动反弹，但需谨防回调风险 中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报 2025年7月27日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 聚丙烯基差价差 2 聚丙烯供需情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚丙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚丙烯综述 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国产量 | 77.69 | 77.36 | -0.33 | 77.80 | 78.21 | 本周产量符合预期，新增检修装置不 多多，未来两周装置检修减少，产量 | | 产量 | | ...

中泰期货苹果市场表现与基本面周度报告 姓名：梁作盼 期货从业资格号：F3048593 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0015589 联系电话： 17615857579 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 2025-07-27 本周观点 本页数据来源:卓创资讯 中泰期货整理 | 利多因素 | 1、新季苹果质量同比或将偏差；2、新季苹果价格仍有高开预期 | | --- | --- | | 利空因素 | 1、新季苹果产量同比去年基本持平；2、库存苹果价格下跌；3、消费淡季苹果表现一般 | | | 山东产区：本周山东产区出库不快，调货客商微增，但仍旧是消费淡季，不少客商着急出库，使得库内成交价格偏弱，好货价格较稳定。栖 | | 市 | 霞地区客商采购的80#一二级片红苹果的价格区间为3.8 - 4.8元/斤；果农80#一二级片红苹果的价格区间则为3.0 - 4.2元/斤，环比上周微 | | 场 | 跌（数据来源：卓创资讯）。 | | 基 | 西部产区：近期西部产区出库持续偏慢，主要原因是总库存较少，且部分冷库有水烂发生，主要以客商走自存货为主。早熟苹果秦阳上市， | ...

商品气氛偏强，带动甲醇上涨 中泰期货甲醇产业链周报 2025年7月27日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 逻辑观点 近期商品情绪好转，淘汰落后产能等消息刺激市场情绪，气氛的好转带动了甲醇、烯烃等品种的反弹。 甲醇目前上游高利润、下游低利润，不具备大幅上涨的基础。 甲醇基本面变动不大，甲醇自身供应压力还是比较大，高利润刺激上游形成高供应，下游需求增长乏力， 长期来看甲醇整体偏弱。情绪消退以后，预计会进入偏弱震荡的格局，我们建议谨防回调风险。 单边策略：谨防回调风险 对冲策略：观望。 风险因素：地缘政治局势突变导致伊朗甲醇出口受阻 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 现货市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report PVC - This week, PVC production slightly decreased, and next week, due to many maintenance devices, especially Xinjiang Zhongtai's maintenance, production is expected to drop to around 443,200 tons. Domestic apparent demand growth rate in July is expected to be -2%, and the actual growth rate may be even lower. This week, there was a stockpile of 5,600 tons, and if domestic demand remains weak, there may be continued stockpiling. PVC prices rebounded significantly this week, and the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali improved significantly. Upstream开工率 is stable, and although the profit of some devices has improved significantly, there is no action to increase the load yet. Downstream开工率 is still weak, and the overall domestic demand is not strong [6][10]. Caustic Soda - This week, the production of caustic soda increased slightly due to the resumption of many maintenance devices, and it is expected to continue to increase next week. The export volume of caustic soda in June was 291,000 tons, less than expected, and the export is estimated to be around 46,000 tons. This week, the national inventory of caustic soda slightly increased, and if the apparent demand remains the same next week, there may be continued stockpiling. The price of caustic soda weakened, and the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong improved significantly. The basis of caustic soda weakened significantly, and upstream manufacturers began hedging [104][107]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PVC 1. Spot Market - This week, PVC production was 451,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from last week. The import volume remained at 15,000 tons per week, and the export volume was 57,500 tons per week. The apparent demand was 403,500 tons, less than the expected value of 429,200 tons. The total inventory was 784,100 tons, a stockpile of 5,600 tons [6]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of PVC weakened significantly this week. For example, the basis of East China calcium carbide method on July 25 was -193 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton from last week. The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated and strengthened [9][19]. 3. Industrial Chain Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali improved significantly this week. The production profit of calcium carbide in Shaanxi decreased from -432 yuan/ton last week to -482 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The profit of Northwest integrated PVC increased from -454 yuan/ton last week to -234 yuan/ton this week, an increase of 220 yuan/ton [9]. 4. Market Expectation - Next week, PVC production is expected to drop to around 443,200 tons, and the apparent demand is expected to be 413,000 tons. If domestic demand remains weak, there may be continued stockpiling [6]. Caustic Soda 1. Spot Market - This week, the production of caustic soda was 823,500 tons, an increase of 13,800 tons from last week. The import volume remained at 200 tons per week, and the export volume was 46,000 tons per week. The apparent demand was around 766,400 tons, and next week, it is estimated to be around 775,000 tons. The total inventory (in terms of 100% purity) was 227,300 tons, an increase of 11,400 tons [104]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of caustic soda weakened significantly this week. For example, the basis of 32% caustic soda for the 01 contract on July 25 was -139 yuan/ton, a decrease of 219 yuan/ton from last week. The 1 - 5 spread was -65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from last week [107]. 3. Industrial Chain Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong improved significantly this week. The profit of Shandong chlor-alkali increased from -231 yuan/ton last week to 113 yuan/ton this week, an increase of 344 yuan/ton. The export profit of caustic soda increased [107]. 4. Market Expectation - Next week, the production of caustic soda is expected to continue to increase, and if the apparent demand remains the same, there may be continued stockpiling [104].

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 7 月 25 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 偏空 | 農荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 白糖 | 豆粕 | 玉米淀粉 | | 王米 | 沪铝 | 护铅 | | 橡胶 | 螺纹钢 | 沪铜 | | 甲醇 | 热轧卷板 | 菜油 | | 塑料 | 菜粕 | 鸡蛋 | | PTA | 郑棉 | 흐드 | | 焦炭 | 锰硅 | 沥青 | | | 棕櫚油 | | | | 沪银 | | | | РУС | | | | 焦煤 | | | | 铁矿石 | | | | Kol | | | | 玻璃 | | | | 沪锌 | | | | 直押 | | | | 聚丙烯 | | | | 炉金 | | | . | 沪锡 | | [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部 ...