1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Based on fundamental analysis, some commodities are in a trend of short - selling (synthetic rubber), some are in a state of oscillating with a downward bias, oscillating, oscillating with an upward bias, and some are in a trend of long - buying. Based on quantitative indicators, some commodities are judged to have a downward trend, some are in an oscillating state, and some are in an upward trend [2][4]. - In the macro - financial sector, the stock index futures suggest short - term operation focusing on volume and price and considering profit - taking. The bond futures should be considered from an oscillating perspective [10][11]. - In the black sector, steel products may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, while iron ore is relatively weak and short - selling on rallies is recommended. Double - coking prices may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, and for ferroalloys, it is recommended to buy silicon iron on dips in the medium term and hold short positions in manganese silicon [13][15][17]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, for zinc, it is recommended to wait and see and hold existing short positions. For lead, it is also recommended to wait and see. Lithium carbonate may be in a weak oscillating state in the short term. Industrial silicon may oscillate with an upper - bound pressure, and polysilicon may oscillate weakly [20][24][25]. - In the agricultural products sector, cotton is in a short - term consolidation state and short - term trading is recommended. Sugar is in a state of oscillating and consolidating, and short - term trading in the low - price range is recommended. For eggs, the 02 - 03 contracts should be considered from an oscillating perspective. Apples may have a strong trend on the futures market. Corn should be traded short - term, focusing on port collection. Jujubes are expected to oscillate, and the market performance during the consumption peak season should be closely monitored. For live pigs, it is advisable to short - sell near - month contracts on rallies [28][30][32][34][36][37][38]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil may turn weak. Plastics should be considered from a weak oscillating perspective. Rubber can sell out - of - the - money put options on dips. Synthetic rubber may turn weak in the short term. Methanol may have a short - term correction, and long positions can be considered for far - month contracts after the correction. Caustic soda should be considered from a short - selling perspective. The polyester industry chain is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered in the short term. LPG may have short - term upward momentum but limited long - term upside space. Pulp and logs are expected to oscillate. Urea futures may trade the expectation of strong demand after a correction [41][42][43][45][46][47][50][51][52]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Information - China's GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year to 140.19 trillion yuan, with a 4.5% growth in the fourth quarter. The added value of industries above the designated size increased by 5.9%, and the added value of the service industry increased by 5.4%. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52%. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with real - estate development investment decreasing by 17.2%. The population decreased by 339,000 in 2025 [6]. - In December 2025, housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened. In the second - hand housing market, prices in all 70 cities fell month - on - month. In the new housing market, Shanghai was the only first - tier city with both month - on - month and year - on - year price increases [6]. - The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the growth forecasts for China, the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan [8]. 3.2 Macro - finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On Monday, the A - share market oscillated with a shrinking volume, and the main indices showed different trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 4114 points. The trading volume was 2.73 trillion yuan, down from 3.06 trillion yuan the previous day. If the recent trend does not form a reverse - enveloping negative line with increased volume, the stock index may enter an adjustment phase [10]. 3.2.2 Bond Futures - The money market is balanced and slightly loose near the tax payment period. The short - end is supported by the money market, while the ultra - long - end is weak. After the structural interest - rate cut, the short - term possibility of an interest - rate cut has decreased significantly, but the long - term easing expectation has been repaired. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating strategy [11][12]. 3.3 Black 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - From a policy perspective, macro - policies such as interest - rate cuts are slightly positive, but have limited short - term impact on demand. From a fundamental perspective, steel is in a de - stocking state, and the current order situation is okay. However, downstream demand is still weak. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the market is relatively loose. In general, steel may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, while iron ore is relatively weak [13]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Recently, coal mine production has increased slightly, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased. Mainstream coking enterprises have initiated the first round of price increases, but steel mills are resistant. In the short term, double - coking prices may oscillate and consolidate, and the impact of coal mine production, safety inspections, downstream procurement, and changes in molten iron production should be noted [15]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The black market sentiment is weak, and double - silicon is operating weakly. However, the medium - term price fluctuation center is still rising slightly. It is recommended to buy silicon iron on dips in the medium term and hold short positions in manganese silicon [17]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Recently, the supply of soda ash has returned to a high level, and the market expects new production capacity to be put into operation. The market has a stronger expectation of glass production line restart. It is recommended to wait and see at present [18]. 3.4 Non - ferrous and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - As of January 19, the domestic zinc inventory increased. It is recommended to wait and see and hold existing short positions. The main reasons for the price decline are the expectation of inventory accumulation, weak demand, and the fading of macro - positive factors [20][21]. 3.4.2 Lead - As of January 19, the social inventory of lead ingots rose to a nearly two - month high. It is recommended to wait and see. The weak consumption and the increase in inventory due to transportation problems are the main factors affecting the price [21][23]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - Under strong supervision, the market sentiment has declined, and lithium carbonate is expected to operate in a weak oscillating state in the short term. The market needs data to verify the actual demand and guide the price [24]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon may oscillate with an upper - bound pressure. Polysilicon may oscillate weakly, and the improvement measures on January 20 should be awaited [25]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The short - term supply of cotton is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The contradiction between pre - festival replenishment and the decline in production start - up has led to a short - term consolidation of Zheng cotton. Short - term trading is recommended [28]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of strong supply and demand. Zheng sugar is oscillating and consolidating, and short - term trading in the low - price range is recommended [30]. 3.5.3 Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg - stocking intensity may peak and then weaken, and the pre - festival spot price may weaken. The 02 - 03 contracts should be considered from an oscillating perspective. The far - month contracts may be expected to weaken due to the increase in replenishment enthusiasm [32]. 3.5.4 Apples - The apple futures market may be strong. The current market is in a game between "supply support" and "demand restraint". The price is expected to oscillate within a range [34][35]. 3.5.5 Corn - The corn futures market has large differences in views. It is recommended to focus on port collection and conduct short - term trading. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, and the key observation point is the concentrated release of grain sales in March [36]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - Jujubes are expected to oscillate. The market performance during the consumption peak season should be closely monitored, and attention should be paid to the changes in the sales area's sales rhythm and the mentality of purchasers [37]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The supply - side slaughter progress is slow, and the short - term spot price is strong, but the upward space is limited. It is advisable to short - sell near - month contracts on rallies [38]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Frequent geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have supported the rise in crude oil prices, but recently, the panic has subsided, and the oil price has weakened. The supply surplus problem is still severe, and the market may return to fundamental trading. The Iranian situation needs to be closely monitored [41]. 3.6.2 Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to consider a weak oscillating strategy and beware of callback risks [42]. 3.6.3 Rubber - Affected by the decline in overseas raw material prices and inventory accumulation, the rubber market has weakened. However, pre - festival downstream replenishment and the approaching of the overseas production area's shutdown season may support the market. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [42]. 3.6.4 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber may turn weak in the short term. It is advisable to stop losses and wait and see when the short - selling price drops to a low level [43]. 3.6.5 Methanol - The actual supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly, and short - term de - stocking is smooth. However, there is still a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. In the long term, the fundamentals are improving. It is advisable to wait for the far - month contracts to adjust and then consider long positions [43][44]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda industry has a high start - up rate and high inventory. The price of liquid chlorine is strong, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali enterprises is okay, so there is no motivation to cut production. It is recommended to consider a short - selling strategy [45]. 3.6.7 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is under pressure due to the weakening demand. In the short term, short - selling on rallies can be considered, and in the medium term, positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX and PTA can be considered [46]. 3.6.8 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG has fallen after rising, affected by the easing of crude oil and geopolitical conflicts, but the price center has still moved up. In the short term, it has upward momentum, but the long - term upside space is limited. Light - position short - selling can be considered [47]. 3.6.9 Pulp - As downstream replenishment ends, the pulp market has weakened. However, the strong overseas prices and the relatively stable fundamentals provide support. The market is expected to oscillate [50]. 3.6.10 Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is temporarily stable. The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the futures market is expected to oscillate [51]. 3.6.11 Urea - In the short term, the spot market for urea has weakened, but the futures market still has strong expectations. The futures may trade the expectation of strong demand after a correction [52].

600. 00 550. 00 500. 00 450. 00 400. 00 350. 00 300. 00 250. 00 200. 00 t the production of the production of the more of the may be 2023 2024 2025 = 2026 天津港锰矿库存周报 (天津振鸿口径) 单位:吨 本周库存 上周库存 出库 入库 库存占比 2026-1-16 变动 总 61226 2934578 516425 577651 2995804 ■加蓬 加蓬 5.26% 157690 204355 46665 -46665 0 ■澳大利亚 澳大利亚 294800 306349 0 0 -11549 9.84% ■南非 ■加纳 南非 2023730 203295 207442 108689 67. 55% 1915041 ■其他 加纳 340369 12700 -12700 10. 94% 327669 0 其他 370209 23451 6. 41% 191915 168464 253765 天津港振鸿锰矿出库:合计:万吨 天津港振鸿锰矿库存:合计:万吨 天 ...

市场情绪回落，铜价震荡整理 沪铜周度报告·2026年01月19日 姓名：安冉 从业资格号：F3049294 交易咨询证书号：Z0017020 姓名：王海聪 从业资格号：F03101206 交易咨询证书号：Z0022465 联系人：陈天敏 从业资格号：F03134700 目 录 01 周度综述：宏观/周度数据/多空逻辑/风险提示 02 铜产业链解析：价格/价差/成本/利润/供给/需求/库存 CONTENTS 资金持仓：外盘持仓CFTC/LME 03 | 宏观方面 | 美国就业市场仍显韧性 | 强化了未来数月美联储维持利率不变的预期 | 同时美联储下一任主席人选生变 | 降息预期降温 | 美元指数走强 | 对铜价形成 | ， | ， | ， | ， | ， | ， | 压制 | 但地缘政治风险上升 | 特朗普宣布自2月1日起对多国输美商品加征10%关税 | 市场不确定性显著上升 | 铜价波动风险加大 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - financial**: For stock index futures, short - term operations should focus on volume and price, considering profit - taking; for treasury bond futures, adopt an oscillatory approach [14][15]. - **Black commodities**: Steel products may oscillate in the short term, and iron ore is relatively weak and should be shorted on rallies; coking coal and coke prices may oscillate and rise in the short term, but the upside is limited; for ferroalloys, manganese ore is strong in the short term, and silicon iron can be long - bought on dips in the medium - to - long term; for soda ash and glass, observe soda ash, and hold long positions in glass or take profits on rallies [16][18][19][20][21]. - **Non - ferrous metals and new materials**: For zinc, observe and keep existing short positions; for lead, observe; lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly; industrial silicon may continue to oscillate, and polysilicon may oscillate weakly [22][24][26][27]. - **Agricultural products**: Cotton may enter a short - term consolidation stage; sugar may oscillate and consolidate; for eggs, adopt an oscillatory approach for 02 - 03 contracts; apples may be strong; corn may oscillate within a range; jujubes may oscillate; for live pigs, short near - month contracts on rallies [31][33][36][39][40][41][42]. - **Energy and chemicals**: Crude oil may weaken; fuel oil prices will follow oil prices; plastics may oscillate; rubber may oscillate, and short - buy on dips; synthetic rubber may weaken in the short term; methanol may have a short - term correction, and long - buy far - month contracts on dips; caustic soda should be shorted; asphalt may oscillate within a range; the polyester industry chain may be under pressure, and short - sell in the short term and conduct positive spreads in the medium term; LPG may have short - term rebound momentum but limited long - term upside; pulp may oscillate; logs may oscillate; urea futures may be strong due to expectations [45][47][48][50][51][52][53][54][56][57][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The State Council held a meeting to promote consumption and address issues such as arrears to enterprises and migrant workers' wages [7]. - The CSRC emphasized market stability and strengthened supervision [7]. - The central bank and the financial regulatory authority adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans [7]. - China and Canada reached a consensus on economic and trade cooperation, and Canada will give China an EV quota [8]. - The CSRC solicited opinions on the derivatives trading supervision regulations [8]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development proposed large - scale urban renewal investment [8]. - China developed a high - energy hydrogen ion implanter [9]. - Two rocket launches failed [9]. - Xidian University made achievements in radar antennas and chip heat dissipation [9][10]. - The US is about to withdraw from the WHO but owes dues [10]. - The US may impose high tariffs on South Korean memory chip manufacturers [10]. - The first shipment of Simandou iron ore arrived in China [10]. - Nvidia revised data on copper demand in data centers [11]. - Trump's statement affected the Fed chair speculation [12]. - The US sent a message to Iran [12]. - Barclays analysts predicted US corporate bond issuance [12]. - The SHFE adjusted trading limits for silver and nickel futures [12]. 3.2 Macro - financial 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On Friday, the A - share market opened high and closed low. Short - term operations should focus on volume and price, considering profit - taking. If there is no further increase in volume and an inverted hammer line, the index may enter an adjustment phase [14]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The money market is balanced and loose, and bond yields are steep. Adopt an oscillatory approach, with the main focus on the money market, risk appetite, and the pace of allocation funds [15]. 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Macro - policies are slightly positive for the steel industry. Steel is in a de - stocking state, with acceptable orders in the short term. Real - estate and infrastructure demand is weak, while coil demand is good. Steel may oscillate, and iron ore is relatively weak [16][18]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices have rebounded due to supply disruptions. Coke has started the first price increase. In the short term, there is a chance for a price rebound, but the upside is limited due to the pressure on steel industry profits [19]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - Manganese ore is strong in the short term, but it is difficult to transfer profits downstream. Silicon iron has no significant fundamental changes, and it can be long - bought on dips in the medium - to - long term [20]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash supply is at a high level, and new capacity may be put into production. Observe soda ash. Glass may improve its supply - demand situation if production cuts are implemented. Hold long positions in glass or take profits on rallies [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories increased slightly. The price of zinc futures fell at night. It is recommended to observe and keep existing short positions [22][23]. 3.4.2 Lead - Lead inventories increased to a one - and - a - half - month high. The price of lead futures fell at night. It is recommended to observe [24][25]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - After a short - term increase driven by export expectations, the price of lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly due to weak vehicle demand and macro - sentiment adjustment [26]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon may continue to oscillate, with pressure on the upside. Polysilicon may oscillate weakly, waiting for the improvement plan on January 20 [27][29]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Cotton supply is currently loose, but there are expectations of supply reduction in the long term. Zhengzhou cotton may enter a short - term consolidation stage [31][32]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The global sugar market has a surplus. Domestic sugar is in a season of both supply and demand growth. Zhengzhou sugar may oscillate and consolidate [33][34]. 3.5.3 Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for eggs may peak and then weaken. Adopt an oscillatory approach for 02 - 03 contracts [36][37][38]. 3.5.4 Apples - Apple prices may be strong. The market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints. Observe the consumption during the Spring Festival stocking period [39]. 3.5.5 Corn - Corn prices may oscillate within a range. The key is the change in farmers' selling sentiment. Observe the port collection and the potential selling pressure in March [40]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - Jujube prices may oscillate. Observe the market performance during the consumption peak season [41][42]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs is slow, and the price may be strong in the short term but with limited upside. Short near - month contracts on rallies [42][43]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East support oil prices, but the supply surplus is still severe. Oil prices may weaken if the geopolitical situation eases [45]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices will follow oil prices, with the focus on the geopolitical situation in Iran. The supply - demand situation has slightly improved [47]. 3.6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and weak demand, but upstream losses may support a small rebound. Adopt an oscillatory approach [48][49]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Rubber may oscillate, with cost support. Look for short - buying opportunities on dips [50]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber may weaken in the short term. Take profits on short positions on dips [51]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Methanol's supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. Long - buy far - month contracts on dips [52]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda production is at a high level, and the inventory is high. Adopt a short - selling approach [53]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Asphalt prices may oscillate within a range, and the winter - storage period has temporarily stabilized [54][55]. 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations. Short - sell in the short term and conduct positive spreads in the medium term [56]. 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG prices may have short - term rebound momentum due to cost and demand support, but the long - term upside is limited. Lightly short - sell [57]. 3.6.11 Pulp - Pulp prices may oscillate due to weakening downstream demand and new warehouse receipts. Observe the international situation and macro factors [57][58]. 3.6.12 Logs - Log prices may oscillate, with the market in a weak supply - demand balance [59]. 3.6.13 Urea - Urea futures are supported by expectations, but the spot market is weakening. Observe the improvement of spot market liquidity [59].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 1 月 16 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 乙二醇 | 燃油 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 短纤 | 沪深300股指期货 | 沥青 | | | | PTA | 中证1000指数期货 | 原油 | | | | 瓶片 | 二债 | 液化石油气 | | | | 对二甲苯 | 五债 | 苹果 | | | | 三十债 | 中证500股指期货 | 甲醇 | | | | 烧碱 | 十债 | | | | | 工业硅 | 尿素 | | | | | 橡胶 | 锰硅 | | | | | 铁矿石 | 多晶硅 | | | | | 塑料 | 硅铁 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, offering trading strategies and outlooks for different futures products based on market conditions, policies, and supply - demand dynamics [16][19][25] Summary by Directory Macro News - The margin ratio for margin trading is raised from 80% to 100%, and the policy of tax refund for home - swapping is extended to the end of 2027. Several top - valued tech firms are preparing for IPOs. China's 2025 foreign trade grows 3.8% year - on - year. The central bank will conduct a 900 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation. Three departments regulate the new energy vehicle industry. The US imposes a 25% tariff on some semiconductor imports. Tesla changes its FSD business model. The Fed's economic situation improves, and there are different views on interest rate adjustments among Fed officials. US economic data shows mixed trends, and OPEC maintains its 2026 oil demand growth forecast and releases the 2027 forecast [9][10][11] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - On January 14, A - shares fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.31%. The increase in margin ratio signals a market cool - down. If the index fails to form a counter - enveloping bearish line with further volume, it may enter an adjustment phase. Short - term trading should focus on volume and price, and consider taking profits [16] Treasury Bond Futures - The money market has become looser. The adjustment of margin ratio and the 900 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation are announced. With the expected decline in interest - rate cut and the upward shift of the capital center, the strategy of flattening the yield curve is maintained [17] Black Commodities Steel and Ore - Policy - wise, there are no new demand - side policies, and supply - side policy interference is unlikely. Fundamentally, steel demand shows off - season pressure, but short - term contradictions are not significant. Long - term downstream demand for steel is weak, except for some consumption of coil products. Iron ore supply shows a port inventory increase, and demand is supported. Steel and ore are expected to fluctuate in the short term [19][20] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal futures prices rebound due to supply disturbances. In the short term, double - coking prices may fluctuate upwards, but the potential negative feedback from weak steel demand and the limited profit of the steel industry may restrict the upward space [22] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuate with the market atmosphere. Supply is at a high level, and new capacity progress is awaited. It is advisable to wait and see. Glass prices are recommended to be held by bulls, and attention should be paid to the implementation of cold - repair [23] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - As of January 12, domestic zinc inventories decrease. Zinc prices are supported by external markets and inventory trends. However, downstream procurement is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [25][26] Lead - As of January 12, lead inventories increase. Before delivery, inventories are expected to rise further. After delivery, supply pressure will increase, and price upward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [27][28] Lithium Carbonate - Driven by the expectation of battery export rush, demand is better than expected. In the short term, it will operate in a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to the risk of sharp fluctuations [29] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, lacking upward drivers. Polysilicon will fluctuate weakly, waiting for the rectification measures on January 20. For industrial silicon, downstream demand has short - term support, but long - term supply pressure remains. For polysilicon, the "anti - involution" policy is being corrected, and the market is in a vacuum period of policy and industry game [30][31] Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton is in a short - term consolidation state due to the contradiction between short - term supply surplus and long - term supply contraction expectations, as well as pre - holiday restocking and declining production. Short - term trading is recommended [32][33] Sugar - Domestic sugar is in a season of both supply and demand growth, with prices fluctuating. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range [34][35] Eggs - The current inventory of laying hens is high. After the Spring Festival, egg prices may weaken. However, if the price increase is due to supply reduction, the situation needs to be re - evaluated [37] Apples - The apple market is in a game between supply support and demand restraint. Prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, and high - quality products will remain firm. The market may turn stronger during the Spring Festival [38][39] Corn - The corn market has large differences. Spot prices are stable to strong, and futures prices are weak. The price may fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the release of grain sales in March [40] Red Dates - The red date market is in a consumption peak season, but the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sales rhythm and buyer sentiment [41] Pigs - In the first half of January, pig consumption lacks a significant boost. From the middle of the month, the supply may increase, and the spot price is likely to decline. Futures contracts should be shorted at high prices [42] Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - Tensions in Iran continue to heat up, and the market is worried about supply disruptions. Although there is a supply surplus, geopolitical factors support oil prices in the short term [44] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil prices, with marginal improvement in supply and demand. The short - term focus is on the geopolitical situation in the US and Russia [46] Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure and weak demand, but upstream losses may support a small - scale rebound. An oscillatory approach is recommended [47] Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate. There is support from overseas raw material prices, and attention should be paid to short - term buying opportunities on dips [47] Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber prices rise due to cost support. Caution is needed when chasing high prices, and it is advisable to wait and see if there is no position [48][49] Methanol - The supply - demand situation of methanol is improving. Although there is a risk of inventory accumulation, the long - term outlook is positive. Long - term contracts can be considered for a slightly long - biased allocation [50] Caustic Soda - The adjustment of export tax - refund policy has a negative impact on caustic soda futures. Spot prices are weak, and futures prices are under pressure [51] Asphalt - Asphalt prices are expected to fluctuate more due to raw material factors. The future focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [52] Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is cost - driven in the short term. Attention can be paid to the positive spread opportunities between May and September contracts of PX and PTA [53] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Affected by the geopolitical conflict in Iran, LPG prices rise. Supported by high costs and demand, it has some rebound momentum. It is recommended to wait and see [54] Urea - Urea futures drive the spot market. Spot prices are stable to rising, and futures prices are rising unilaterally. Attention is paid to the improvement of spot market liquidity [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index may enter an adjustment phase if there is no further increase in volume to form a reverse enveloping negative line in the near future [12][13]. - The strategy for treasury bond futures is to flatten the yield curve [14]. - Steel and ore are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [16]. - Double - coke prices may fluctuate and rise in the short term, but the rebound space may be limited [17][18]. - For manganese silicon, there is a contradiction between cost support and oversupply pressure in the short term; for silicon iron, it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - long term [19]. - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, hold long positions or partially cash in on rallies [20]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [22]. - Industrial silicon is expected to continue to fluctuate, with no clear upward drive [23]. - For polycrystalline silicon, be cautious when holding positions due to strict position limits [24][25]. - Zhengzhou cotton is in a short - term decline and consolidation state, and it is advisable to buy on dips [27]. - Zhengzhou sugar is in a state of shock and consolidation, and short - term trading in the low - level range is recommended [29]. - For eggs, the 02 and 03 contracts are expected to have limited upside space, but be vigilant about supply - side changes [32]. - Apple futures may run strongly, and the price is likely to fluctuate within a range [35]. - Corn futures will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and focus on the replenishment efforts at the grass - roots level this month [36]. - Red dates are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and pay attention to the sales area's sales rhythm [38]. - For live pigs, the spot price is likely to fluctuate and decline in the middle of January, and the futures main contract should be short - biased on rallies [39]. - Crude oil prices still have support in the short term due to the Iranian issue [39]. - Fuel oil prices will follow oil prices, and the focus is on the Iranian situation [41]. - Polyolefins are expected to be weak from a supply - demand perspective, and it is advisable to adopt a shock - trading mindset [42]. - Rubber is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [44]. - For synthetic rubber, short - term short positions should be closed, and it is advisable to wait and see [45]. - For methanol, the far - month contracts can be gradually considered for a slightly long - biased allocation [46]. - Caustic soda futures are affected negatively in the current environment [46]. - Asphalt prices are expected to have a larger fluctuation range in the short term, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [47]. - For the polyester industry chain, consider the positive spread opportunities between PX and PTA from May to September [49]. - LPG still has some rebound momentum, and it is advisable to wait and see without chasing the rise [50]. - For pulp, the disk faces hedging pressure, but the downside space is limited [51]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate, and the fundamentals are in a weak balance [52]. - Urea futures show a weak shock trend, and the long positions are actively reducing [53]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - The US - Iran situation is tense. Trump cancelled talks with Iranian officials, and the US State Department asked citizens to leave Iran. The US military is considering options, but the White House prefers diplomacy [8]. - The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell continues to ferment. Trump will announce the next Fed Chairman in the coming weeks [8]. - Trump threatens to impose a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran. China will safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. The G7 plans to reduce rare - earth imports from China, and China will maintain the stability of the global supply chain [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a manufacturing enterprise symposium, emphasizing industry self - discipline [9]. - China will continue to impose anti - dumping duties on imported solar - grade polycrystalline silicon from the US and South Korea for 5 years [9]. - A Chinese research team made progress in high - performance sodium - ion battery cathode materials [9]. - The US relaxed regulations on NVIDIA's H200 chip exports to China [9]. - SK Hynix will invest about $12.9 billion to build an advanced chip packaging factory in South Korea [9]. - The US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining flat compared with the previous value. The market expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January 2026 with a probability of 95% [10]. - The President of the St. Louis Fed believes there is little reason to further ease monetary policy in the short term [10]. - Japanese government bonds were sold off due to concerns about fiscal deterioration [10]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fees for lithium carbonate futures contracts [10]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On January 13, the A - share market fluctuated downward, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.64% to 4138.76 points, ending a 17 - day winning streak. The trading volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan, setting a new high [12]. - If the stock index fails to form a reverse enveloping negative line with increased volume, it may enter an adjustment phase [13]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is to flatten the yield curve. The capital margin is converging, and the capital interest rate is rising slightly. The 600 billion yuan repurchase has not been renewed [14]. 3.3 Black 3.3.1 Steel and Ore - Policy: There are no new policies on the demand side, and the supply - side policy interference is low [16]. - Fundamentals: The fundamentals of steel are weakening marginally, with seasonal demand pressure. The downstream demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is good. The supply is stable, and the inventory is increasing [16]. - Valuation: The futures prices of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal are fluctuating, and the disk valuation is equivalent to the long - process cost [16]. - Trend: Steel and ore are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [16]. 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - Policy: The "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies restrict coal production [18]. - Fundamentals: Coal supply is disturbed, and the coke price has been reduced four times. The iron - water output is increasing slightly [18]. - Trend: Double - coke prices may fluctuate and rise in the short term, but the rebound space is limited [18]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - Manganese ore: The short - term performance is strong, but the profit transfer is difficult. Manganese silicon faces a contradiction between cost support and supply - demand surplus [19]. - Ferrosilicon: The fundamentals are stable, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - long term [19]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: The supply is at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new capacity [20]. - Glass: It is advisable to hold long positions or partially cash in on rallies. Pay attention to the cold - repair of production lines [20]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Lithium Carbonate - Demand is expected to be better than the previous neutral expectation, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but beware of high - price fluctuations [22]. 3.4.2 Industrial Silicon - The previous over - supply expectation needs time to verify. The disk is expected to fluctuate, and there is no clear upward drive [23]. 3.4.3 Polycrystalline Silicon - Due to strict position limits, the disk lacks industrial long positions to repair the basis. Be cautious when holding positions [24][25]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - There is a short - term decline and consolidation. The USDA report is positive, but the domestic supply is loose in the short term. Pay attention to the pre - holiday replenishment and the next target - price subsidy policy [27][28]. 3.5.2 Sugar - It is in a state of shock and consolidation. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, but the domestic market has supply and demand support [29][30]. 3.5.3 Eggs - The 02 and 03 contracts are expected to have limited upside space. The current price increase may be due to supply reduction or increased consumption, which needs further observation [32][34]. 3.5.4 Apples - The disk may run strongly. The market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the performance during the Spring Festival replenishment period is crucial [35]. 3.5.5 Corn - The short - term disk will fluctuate strongly. The current price increase reflects the short - term supply shortage. Pay attention to the grass - roots replenishment in January [36]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - They are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Pay attention to the sales rhythm in the sales area and the mentality of purchasers [37][38]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The spot price is expected to fluctuate and decline in the middle of January. The futures main contract should be short - biased on rallies [39]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The Iranian situation is tense, and the supply is in surplus. The short - term oil price still has support [39]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The price follows oil prices, and the focus is on the Iranian situation. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is high [41]. 3.6.3 Polyolefins - The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to adopt a shock - trading mindset, and beware of callbacks [42]. 3.6.4 Rubber - It is expected to fluctuate. The cost is supported, and there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction. Pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [44]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Short - term short positions should be closed, and it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the raw - material price and downstream demand [45]. 3.6.6 Methanol - The far - month contracts can be gradually considered for a slightly long - biased allocation. Pay attention to the inventory at the port [46]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - It is affected negatively by the current environment. The spot market is weak, and the futures price shows a downward trend [46]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - The price is expected to have a larger fluctuation range in the short term. The focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [47]. 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - Consider the positive spread opportunities between PX and PTA from May to September. The industry chain is affected by oil prices and demand [49]. 3.6.10 LPG - It still has some rebound momentum, and it is advisable to wait and see without chasing the rise. The supply and demand are affected by the Iranian situation and the season [50]. 3.6.11 Pulp - The disk faces hedging pressure, but the downside space is limited due to the support of the spot market and the strong foreign - market price [51]. 3.6.12 Logs - They are expected to fluctuate, and the fundamentals are in a weak balance. The domestic spot market is stable [52]. 3.6.13 Urea - The futures show a weak shock trend, and the long positions are actively reducing. The spot market is stable, but the new orders are weak [53].

天津港锰矿库存周报 (天津振鸿口径) 单位:吨 本周库存 上周库存 出库 入库 库存占比 2026-1-9 变动 总 2934578 3169783 400431 -235205 635636 ■加蓬 加蓬 49055 6. 96% 204355 204400 49100 -45 ■澳大利亚 澳大利亚 273732 32617 306349 0 0 10. 44% ■南非 ■加纳 南非 234112 1915041 2125418 271408 -210377 65. 26% ■其他 加纳 13500 -13500 11. 60% 340369 353869 0 其他 212364 301628 117264 5.74% 168464 -43900 天津港振鸿锰矿出库:合计:万吨 天津港振鸿锰矿库存:合计:万吨 天津港振鸿锰矿入库:合计:万吨 600. 00 120. 00 80.00 550. 00 500. 00 450. 00 400. 00 350. 00 300. 00 250. 00 200. 00 r = 2 = 2 = 2 = 1 = 2023 2024 2025 - 2026 100. 00 ...

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Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 - Company: Zhongtai Futures Co., Ltd. - Analyst: Gao Ping - Analyst Qualification Number: F3002581 - Transaction Consultation License Number: Z0012806 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The current logic is that the trading sentiment in the spot market has weakened. With the successive registration of new warehouse receipts and the price reaching the hedging point for European softwood pulp multiple times, the futures market is facing pressure from hedging positions. - On the basis of stable fundamentals, the strong price support from the forward overseas market still provides support for domestic pulp spot and forward prices, limiting the downside space of the futures market. - In the long - term, the overseas shipments in January are still decreasing, and there is no significant pressure on short - term arrivals. After the simultaneous increase in futures and spot prices, the spot trading has slightly weakened. As the futures price rises and reaches the risk - free hedging position for some European and Canadian softwood pulp again, and with the successive registration of new warehouse receipts, upward pressure may emerge. Although the fundamentals have improved, there are no actual factors to drive up the price. - Pulp sentiment remains for now, and it may maintain a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. However, if contradictions in the real - world market gradually accumulate (such as the port inventory turning to accumulation, new warehouse receipts being registered successively, and spot trading weakening) or the macro - sentiment weakens, pulp may shift to a weakly volatile trend. - Strategy recommendation: The commodity sector is improving, and there are still risks in the energy and chemical market due to international situations and macro - factors. It is recommended to wait and see during the day. If the spot price is stable and one holds deliverable forward goods at a suitable cost, one can choose to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 05 contract at high prices to meet the risk - free hedging needs at high levels [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1 Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Domestic production: The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp remained basically stable this week. The price of domestic hardwood pulp increased by 150 yuan/ton, but the spot price was stable, and the market had sufficient spot supply. - Import: In November 2025, China's pulp imports were 324.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The cumulative annual imports were 3292.5 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The shipments of softwood and hardwood pulp from pulp - producing countries to China rebounded in November, and it is estimated that the domestic arrivals in January will increase month - on - month [7]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: Downstream production was stable, with no obvious demand - side drivers. The maintenance equipment for coated paper has resumed normal production, and the production of coated paper has increased slightly. - Inventory: As the spot price became firmer and the downstream replenishment came to an end with reduced willingness, the port inventory gradually shifted to accumulation. Under the high price of far - month contracts, there were hedging opportunities for some low - priced European softwood pulp, and the warehouse receipts in the contracts have increased successively. The downstream finished - product inventory is in a state of shock adjustment [9]. 1.3 Price and Spread - Price: The overseas quotation increased, the spot price of hardwood pulp remained firm with relatively tight market liquidity, and the futures price was also firm. The price of softwood pulp was firm, but the buying demand was weak, and the demand was average. After the large - scale replenishment by major manufacturers ended, the spot trading weakened slightly, but the price remained relatively firm. The trading sentiment in the spot market weakened, and with the successive registration of new warehouse receipts and the price reaching the hedging point for European softwood pulp multiple times, the futures market was facing pressure from hedging positions. The finished - product price remained stable, and there were no price increase notices. - Spread: The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp continued to shrink to a relatively low level, which may drive the digestion of old softwood pulp. The far - month futures price continued to strengthen, and the spread shrank. The futures price corrected, the spot price remained stable, and the basis strengthened [11]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - Cost: The cost of domestic pulp remained stable, and the cost of imported pulp increased due to the increase in overseas prices. - Profit: The profit of domestic pulp is expected to rise slightly. The profit of imported pulp is expected to be further compressed due to the increase in overseas prices. The raw material cost of paper continued to rise. Although the finished - product price also increased, the profit was still affected [13]. Part 2 Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly pulp balance sheet from January 2025 to January 2026, including data on imports, domestic production, total supply, pulp consumption, factory inventory, apparent demand, and inventory (including port inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and total inventory) [19]. Part 3 Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The global pulp shipment volume is analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the text. - Demand and Inventory: The apparent demand and inventory in Europe are analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the text. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Analyzes various aspects of supply, including pulp imports, softwood pulp imports, hardwood pulp imports, softwood pulp imports by country, imports of chemimechanical pulp and unbleached pulp, and imports of softwood and hardwood chips, and provides historical data from 2022 - 2025 [33][37][40]. - Demand: Analyzes pulp apparent demand and downstream finished - product paper (including toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard), and provides information on the planned production capacity of some paper mills [73][88]. - Inventory: Analyzes pulp total inventory, including the sum of port inventory and warehouse receipt inventory [117]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - Analyzes the import cost and profit of pulp and the production cost and profit of domestic pulp [125][128]. Part 5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - Analyzes pulp overseas quotations, spot price seasonality, spot spread seasonality, basis, and the seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread of the SP main contract [132][137][141]