交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 9 月 26 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/9/26 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 锌 | 上证50股指期货 | 沥青 | | | | | 液化石油气 | 原油 | 三十债 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 氧化铝 | 中证500股指期货 | 十债 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 中证1000指数期货 | 工业硅 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 纯碱 | 沪深300股指期货 | 二债 | | | | | | 尿素 | 五债 | | | 客服电话： | | | 铝 | 对二甲苯 | | | | | | 烧碱 | 乙二醇 | | | 400-618-6767 | | | 多晶硅 | 短纤 | | | | | | 棉纱 | PTA | | ...

黑色供应周报-铁合金 2025年9月26日 全国硅铁周度产量:万吨 14 20 18 13 16 12 14 11 IS 10 10 8 9 6 4 2 下载 8 下午餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐店加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐 累计同比(右轴) 2023 -2021 2022 2024 ·2025 累计同比(右轴) 2022 2024 -2021 - 2023 2025 内蒙古-硅锰日均产量:万吨 内蒙古-硅铁日均产量:万吨 1.60 0.65 1.50 0.60 1.40 0.55 1.30 0.50 1.20 0.45 1.10 0.40 1.00 0.35 0.90 0.80 0.30 一个目标。 2017年 12月 12月 12月 12日 12時 12時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 1000 下されるなど、そこではなくなるとなると、そのことではない。 ここではなかったときになるとことできる。 このことではない。 2022 2023 2024 2025 2021 2022 2023 ·2024 ·2025 宁夏-硅锰日均产量:万 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean oil, PTA, Bean No. 2, Plastic, White sugar, Zhengzhou cotton, Palm oil [6] - **Bearish**: Manganese silicon, Rebar, Glass, PVC, Polypropylene, Silver, Rapeseed oil [6] - **Sideways**: Asphalt, Corn, Rubber, Corn starch, Rapeseed meal, Tin, Iron ore, Bean No. 1, Shanghai gold, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai copper, Eggs, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai lead, Coke, Coking coal, Hot - rolled coil [6] Core Views - A - shares are expected to be volatile, with the probability of central bank loosening increasing. For stocks, a short - term sideways approach is recommended, and for bonds, a long - term bullish strategy is considered. In the commodity market, different commodities have different outlooks based on their supply - demand fundamentals, policy impacts, and geopolitical factors [14][15] Summaries by Categories Macro Information - China sets new climate goals by 2035, including a 7% - 10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, a 30% share of non - fossil energy, and 6 - fold growth in wind and solar power [8] - China will not seek new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations [8] - Alibaba partners with NVIDIA on Physical AI and plans 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure investment [8] - The central bank conducts 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations in September, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan [9] - A new policy - based financial instrument of about 500 billion yuan is being established [9] - The US imposes a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts since August 1, and some EU products are tariff - exempt since September [10] - The US mining giant's Indonesian copper mine has a mudslide, suspending production until 2027 and reducing 2026 output by 35% [11] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Consider buying on dips and trading sideways. A - shares are volatile, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 hitting new highs. The central bank's future easing probability is increasing [13][14] Treasury Bond Futures - Consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the long - term and buying bonds on dips, betting on more monetary easing [15] Black Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may continue to rise in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the demand of finished products in "Golden September and Silver October" and downstream restocking before the National Day [17] Ferroalloys - For manganese silicon, expect a bearish trend in the medium - to - long - term; for silicon iron, also recommend a bearish approach in the medium - term [18] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, observe the market sentiment in the short - term and turn bearish later; for glass, stay on the sidelines for now [19] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, recommend waiting on the sidelines at high levels; for alumina, suggest shorting on rallies [20] Lithium Carbonate - Prices are supported by short - term inventory reduction and are expected to fluctuate widely [21] Industrial Silicon - It is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, and consider buying on dips for far - month contracts [22] Polysilicon - The market is mainly driven by policy progress, with a wide - range volatile trend expected in the short - term [22][23] Agricultural Products Cotton - Adopt a cautious short - selling strategy, and pay attention to the impact of the crude oil market and tariffs [25][26] Sugar - Keep a short - selling strategy in the medium - term, and focus on the impact of typhoons and holiday capital flows [27] Eggs - Recommend short - selling on rallies, with a weakening trend expected after the peak season [27][28] Apples - Suggest buying on dips with a light position, and pay attention to the weather in production areas [29][30] Corn - Recommend selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract, and the price may decline further but has some support [31] Red Dates - Recommend short - selling on rallies [32] Pigs - Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts, and the spot price is expected to oscillate at a low level [32][33] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Consider short - selling on rallies as the market may turn to oversupply [35][36] Fuel Oil - Prices will follow crude oil, affected by geopolitical risks and oversupply expectations [37] Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile, with a short - term rebound possible [38] Rubber - The price may turn strong in the short - term, and pay attention to the impact of weather [39] Methanol - Adopt a sideways - bullish strategy, and focus on port inventory reduction [40] Caustic Soda - The futures price is expected to oscillate, affected by the price of liquid chlorine and the macro - market [41] Asphalt - Follow crude oil prices, and the demand is in the peak season [42] Polyester Industry Chain - The products are expected to continue to rebound, with different fundamentals for each product [43] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Adopt a long - term bearish strategy, with short - term cost - driven strength possible [43] Others Offset - Printing Paper - The market is expected to oscillate, and consider buying on dips or selling put options [45] Pulp - The market is expected to oscillate, and observe port inventory reduction and spot transactions [46] Logs - The market is expected to oscillate, and consider buying on dips if the price support is effective [47] Urea - Adopt an oscillating strategy, and pay attention to export news and downstream demand [47] Synthetic Rubber - Consider short - term long - positions with a stop - loss, and pay attention to macro - policies and downstream procurement [48]

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 9 月 24 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/9/24 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 纯碱 | 多晶硅 | 燃油 | | | | | 烧碱 | 玻璃 | 沥青 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 锌 | 原油 | 工业硅 | | | | | 液化石油气 | 沪深300股指期货 | 二债 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 氧化铝 | 三十债 | 五债 | | | | | 铝 | 十债 | 焦炭 | | | 客服电话： | | 塑料 | 橡胶 | 焦煤 | | | | | 甲醇 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | 400-618-6767 | | 鸡蛋 | 合成橡胶 | | | | | | 生猪 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 公 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The probability of central bank easing is increasing. The capital market's technology - related content has further improved, and various medium - and long - term funds' holdings of A - share floating market value have increased. There are expectations of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in the fourth quarter [6][7][10]. - **Stock Market**: A - share technology stocks are favored by funds. The stock market shows signs of a breakthrough after a sharp rise in August, but the sustainability of the upward momentum needs to be observed. It is advisable to consider going long on the stock index futures at low levels and adopt a shock - operation strategy [10]. - **Bond Market**: It is recommended to steepen the short - end and ultra - long - end interest rate curves in the medium - to - long - term for treasury bond futures. A strategy of going long on bonds at low levels can be adopted to bet on the intensification of future monetary policies [11]. - **Black Commodities**: The steel market may experience a "not - so - prosperous peak season." Steel is expected to maintain a shock market, with short - selling of wide - straddle options on steel and short - selling of iron ore at high levels. Double - coking coal prices may continue to rise in the short - term, but the focus should be on the demand of finished products during the "Golden September and Silver October" and the downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day [14][15][16]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Aluminum is expected to remain at a relatively high level before the holiday, with a recommendation of high - level observation and appropriate long - buying at low levels. Alumina has an increasing surplus pressure, and short - selling at high levels is recommended [21]. - **Agricultural Products**: For cotton, a strategy of short - selling at high levels is recommended; for sugar, a short - selling strategy is advisable; for eggs, a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is suggested; for apples, a wait - and - see approach is recommended; for corn, selling out - of - the - money call options is proposed; for hogs, a short - selling strategy on the near - term contracts at high levels is recommended [28][30][32][33][34][35]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: For crude oil, short - selling at high levels can be considered; for fuel oil, its price will follow the oil price; for plastics, a weak - shock strategy with a small - amount short - selling allocation is recommended; for rubber, short - term long - buying strategies can be considered; for methanol, a shock strategy is recommended; for caustic soda, the futures are expected to be weak; for asphalt, it will follow the oil price; for the polyester industry chain, a weak - shock trend is expected; for liquefied petroleum gas, a long - term short - selling strategy is maintained [37][38][39][40][41][42][43][45][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Information - The capital market's technology - related content has further improved, with the market value of the A - share technology sector accounting for over 1/4. As of the end of August, various medium - and long - term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan of A - share floating market value, a 32% increase compared to the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan," and foreign investors held 3.4 trillion yuan of A - share market value [6]. - China's 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs have remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. There are expectations of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in the fourth quarter [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments have issued a work plan for the stable growth of the steel industry, aiming for an average annual growth of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry in the next two years [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - A - share technology stocks are favored by funds. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22% to 3828.58 points, with daily trading volume reaching 2.14 trillion yuan. It is advisable to consider going long at low levels and adopt a shock - operation strategy [10]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market was generally strong and volatile on Monday. The central bank conducted a 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan. It is recommended to steepen the short - end and ultra - long - end interest rate curves in the medium - to - long - term and go long on bonds at low levels [11]. 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - The policy impact on the black market is expected to be neutral, and the market will return to supply - demand fundamentals. The steel market may experience a "not - so - prosperous peak season." Steel is expected to maintain a shock market, with short - selling of wide - straddle options on steel and short - selling of iron ore at high levels [14][15]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Double - coking coal prices may continue to rise in the short - term. The focus should be on the demand of finished products during the "Golden September and Silver October" and the downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day [16]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to remain at a relatively high level before the holiday, with a recommendation of high - level observation and appropriate long - buying at low levels. Alumina has an increasing surplus pressure, and short - selling at high levels is recommended [21]. 3.4.2 Zinc - As the macro - impact fades, zinc prices are expected to weaken due to increased supply and weak demand [22]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - The short - term destocking supports the price, and it is expected to move in a shock manner [23]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon - It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts at low levels within the range. The resumption progress of Xinjiang's leading manufacturers is the core supply - demand contradiction [25]. 3.4.5 Polysilicon - It is recommended to operate cautiously with a wide - range shock. The policy progress dominates the price fluctuation [26]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - A strategy of short - selling at high levels is recommended due to increasing supply and weak demand [28]. 3.5.2 Sugar - A short - selling strategy is advisable as the domestic and international sugar markets face supply pressure [30]. 3.5.3 Eggs - A strategy of short - selling on rebounds is suggested as the supply pressure is large and the peak season is coming to an end [32]. 3.5.4 Apples - A wait - and - see approach is recommended. Attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas [33]. 3.5.5 Corn - Selling out - of - the - money call options is proposed. The price may decline with the increase in new grain supply, but there is support at the bottom [34]. 3.5.6 Hogs - A short - selling strategy on the near - term contracts at high levels is recommended. The supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand [35]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - It is advisable to short - sell at high levels as the market is likely to shift to a supply - surplus pattern [37]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Its price will follow the oil price, with weak fundamentals for low - sulfur fuel oil and changing demand for high - sulfur fuel oil [38]. 3.6.3 Plastics - A weak - shock strategy with a small - amount short - selling allocation is recommended due to high supply and weak demand [39]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Short - term long - buying strategies can be considered as the price may strengthen gradually [40]. 3.6.5 Methanol - A shock strategy is recommended as the port inventory pressure is large [40]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - The futures are expected to be weak as the futures and spot prices deviate [42]. 3.6.7 Asphalt - It will follow the oil price, and the current demand is in the peak season [43]. 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - A weak - shock trend is expected due to weak cost - side drivers and lack of demand [45]. 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - A long - term short - selling strategy is maintained as the supply is abundant and demand is hard to strengthen beyond expectations [46].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various sectors including macro finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of each sector's commodities, and gives corresponding trading suggestions such as long, short, or neutral positions [13][16][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - China and the US leaders had a phone call to discuss bilateral relations; the central bank adjusted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations; the State Council held a meeting on government procurement policies and reviewed a draft banking supervision law; Shanghai optimized property tax policies; multiple government departments issued industry - related policies; major express companies in Shanghai will raise prices; the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate and started to reduce holdings; the UK had a high budget deficit; the US faced a potential government shutdown; and European Central Bank officials had different views on interest rates [9][10][11]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Consider buying on dips and adopting a range - bound trading strategy. A - share indices declined, and the market is expected to be range - bound with a potential increase in central bank easing probability [13]. Treasury Bond Futures - Consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the medium - to - long - term and buying bonds on dips, betting on further monetary policy easing [14]. Black Commodities Steel and Iron Ore - Steel is expected to trade in a range, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies. For arbitrage, go long on the iron ore 1 - 5 spread on dips and hold short wide - straddle options on steel. The market may experience a "peak season without peak" situation due to limited demand improvement and high inventory [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to rise in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" and the pre - National Day restocking rhythm [18]. Ferroalloys - Manganese silicon is expected to be shorted on rallies in the medium - to - long - term due to long - term oversupply. Silicon iron is also recommended to be shorted on rallies in the medium - term considering its current oversupply and potential cost changes [19][20]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass is recommended to be observed for now. The supply of soda ash is increasing, and there is potential delivery pressure, while the glass market is affected by inventory and demand [21]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to remain at a relatively high level before the festival and can be bought on dips, while being cautious after the festival. Alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies due to oversupply [23]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to decline as the supply increases and demand support is weak [24]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is in a state of strong reality and weak expectation, with prices expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [26]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon can be bought on dips in the far - month contracts. The key to supply - demand lies in the resumption progress of Xinjiang's leading manufacturers, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the dry season [27]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policy progress, with prices expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term. Caution is needed in operation [28]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton is recommended to be shorted on rallies due to increasing supply pressure and weak demand [30]. Sugar - Sugar prices are expected to face pressure both internationally and domestically. It is recommended to take a short position [32]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to weaken after the Mid - Autumn Festival. It is recommended to short on rallies, especially in the near - month contracts [33]. Apples - It is recommended to observe the apple market for now due to uncertainties such as weather and new - season opening prices [34]. Corn - Keep an eye on the new - grain listing rhythm and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [34]. Red Dates - Red dates are recommended to be shorted on rallies due to stable prices and weak consumption [36]. Pigs - The pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with prices expected to fluctuate at a low level. Short on rallies in the near - month contracts [37]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil is expected to be in a situation of oversupply, with prices likely to decline. The peak - season demand logic is ending, and the market may return to a weak - fundamental state [39]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices will follow the trend of crude oil, which is affected by geopolitical risks and expected future oversupply [40]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to trade weakly due to high supply pressure. Consider taking a short position [41]. Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and caution is needed in holding positions [42]. Methanol - Methanol is recommended to be traded with a weak - range - bound strategy due to high port inventory pressure [43]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures are expected to trade in a wide range. The support of spot prices for futures needs to be observed [44]. Asphalt - Asphalt will follow the trend of crude oil. It is in the seasonal demand peak, and the inventory is decreasing [45]. Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester products are expected to be weak in the short - term, but the downward space may narrow after continuous processing - fee compression [46]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG is expected to have limited upside potential in the long - term due to abundant supply. A short - term long - term bearish view is maintained [47]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to take a long position or sell put options with caution based on the production cost line in the short - term [48]. Pulp - Observe the port inventory reduction and spot trading situation in the short - term [49]. Logs - Observe the implementation of price - holding measures and downstream orders in the peak season. Consider taking a long position on dips with caution [50]. Urea - Urea prices are expected to be weak and range - bound due to weak domestic demand and increasing production [50]. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be range - bound with limited upside and downside. Avoid chasing short positions during sharp declines [51].

预防式降息开启，铜价高位震荡 沪铜周度报告·2025年9月22日 姓名：安冉 从业资格号：F3049294 交易咨询证书号：Z0017020 姓名：王海聪 从业资格号：F03101206 交易咨询证书号：Z0022465 联系人：陈天敏 从业资格号：F03134700 目 录 | | 项目 | | | | | 周度数据 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上期 | 当期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | | 铜精矿现货TC（美元/ 吨 ） | -41.3 | -40.8 | 0.50 | 1.21% | 矿端供应扰动持续 ，Grasberg铜矿仍处于暂停状态 原料供应仍偏紧 现货市场成交 ， ， 活跃度降低 成交结果仍显清淡 现货TC小幅反弹 ， ， 。 | | 供给端 | 精废价差（元/吨） | 1734 | 1917 | 183 | 10.55% | 美联储降息落地叠加鲍威尔意外放鹰 后续降息路径仍偏保守 市场乐观情绪降温 ， ， ， 铜价高位回调 精废价差因此收窄 ， 。 | | | 南方粗铜加工费（元/ 吨 ） | 700 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The expectations for both monetary and fiscal policies have increased. Supported by the fundamental and capital aspects, medium - and short - term bonds may continue to strengthen [6]. - The probability of the central bank's easing is increasing, and there is a possibility of further increasing the money supply and cutting interest rates [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Logic and Strategy (P3 - 4) - **Capital Aspect**: During the week, due to tax payments, the central bank announced net reverse - repurchase injections. Capital was tight, and prices first rose and then fell. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse - repurchase operation may lead to a 10bp interest - rate cut, and there is a possibility of a rate lower than OMO + 15BP. Considering the current liquidity situation, there is a possibility of net bond purchases this month, and the probability of the central bank's easing is increasing [8]. - **Macroeconomic Data and Logic**: In August, domestic macroeconomic data continued to decline and were below expectations. The reasons include the economic cycle's downward inertia and the complexity of anti - involution. The unemployment rate has rebounded for two consecutive months, and the pressure of stabilizing growth is increasing. Monetary policy may be the first to be strengthened, with a high probability of the central bank restarting bond purchases in September and a 10bp interest - rate cut in the fourth quarter [8]. - **View and Strategy**: The released macroeconomic data was weak, increasing the probability of the central bank's interest - rate cut. The market was mainly affected by bond - buying and fiscal stimulus expectations. Bonds with maturities of less than 10 years showed strong performance, while ultra - long - term bonds were weak. The strategy is to consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the long - term and to buy bonds on dips [8]. 3.2 Macro Main Asset Capital Flow Changes (P5 - 6) - The yield of Chinese bonds fluctuated, the yield of US bonds rebounded, and the US dollar index first declined and then rebounded. US stocks continued to rise, while A - shares slightly declined. Commodities first rose and then fell and continued to fluctuate. The European container shipping line continued to weaken [10]. 3.3 Recent Macroeconomic Data Analysis and Review (P7 - 13) - **Domestic Data**: In August, China's social consumer goods retail sales, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment all declined year - on - year. The unemployment rate rose to 5.3%. The decline in real - estate prices continued, and the decline in second - hand housing prices widened [18]. - **US Data**: In August, the US new - home construction annualized total decreased, and the retail sales and industrial output growth rates were lower than expected. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, and the economic forecast maintained the judgment of a soft landing, with inflation falling more slowly and the economy remaining resilient [18][19]. 3.4 Capital Aspect Analysis and Bond Futures and Spot Index Monitoring (P14 - 24) - **Open - Market Operations**: During the week, the central bank conducted net reverse - repurchase injections. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse - repurchase operation is expected to make liquidity management more flexible and further clarify the policy - rate status of the 7 - day reverse - repurchase [31]. - **Bond Yields**: The yields of Chinese bonds of different maturities showed different degrees of changes. The yields of 1 - year, 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Chinese bonds had different weekly changes, and the term spreads also changed [40]. - **Bond Futures**: The prices and positions of bond futures contracts such as TL.CFE, T.CFE, TF.CFE, and TS.CFE changed during the week [45]. 3.5 Equity Broad - Based Index Fundamental, Liquidity, and Futures - Spot Index Monitoring (P25 - 27) - **Micro - Liquidity**: The trading volume proportion of broad - based indexes and the market trading volume, as well as the margin trading balance, showed certain trends. The trading volume of north - bound and south - bound funds also changed [92][94][97]. 3.6 Macroeconomic Medium - Term Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring (P28 - 46) - **Domestic Economy**: The profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size showed signs of improvement, and the PMI data rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range. The construction industry was weak, and the service industry was affected by the summer season [26]. - **Overseas Economy**: The US Q2 real GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.3%, and the core PCE inflation increased slightly year - on - year. The market's bet on the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut in September reached 86.5% [26]. 3.7 Macroeconomic Long - Wave Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring (P47 - 48) No detailed content provided for this part.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the offset printing paper market, including supply, demand, inventory, cost, price, and spreads. It indicates that the market is in a slow and slightly increasing trend in production, with stable demand during the off - season. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and prices are likely to fluctuate or slightly decline. The production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner. For the market, it is recommended to hold the spot and make rigid - demand transactions, and consider light - position long or selling put options strategies based on the factory production cost line while paying attention to risk prevention [9][12][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 1: Offset Printing Paper Overview - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Domestic weekly production was 20.90 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.40 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.00 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 56.70%, up 1.00% week - on - week and down 3.50% year - on - year. Monthly imports were 1.19 million tons, down 0.29 million tons month - on - month and 0.53 million tons year - on - year. Weekly apparent demand was 19.20 million tons, up 2.10 million tons week - on - week. Monthly exports were 6.25 million tons, down 0.39 million tons month - on - month and 1.66 million tons year - on - year. Domestic demand was 83.31 million tons, up 2.32 million tons month - on - month and down 1.12 million tons year - on - year. Enterprise inventory and total spot inventory were on an upward trend, and it was expected that the inventory would accumulate with the increase in production and stable demand [10]. - **Price**: Factory delivery prices and market self - pick - up prices remained stable compared to the previous week but decreased year - on - year. The futures prices of OP2601 and OP2603 showed a slight increase. It was expected that the offset printing paper prices would fluctuate or slightly decline, and the futures prices would mainly fluctuate [12]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between factory delivery and self - pick - up prices were stable, and the futures spreads and basis were expected to remain stable or slightly decline. Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching - aid textbook tenders, and March is a traditional peak season [14]. - **Cost and Profit**: Raw material costs were expected to remain stable or slightly increase. The production profit was expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner due to the limited increase in finished product prices during the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the industrial chain, the spot market was stable, and transactions were based on rigid demand during the off - season. It was recommended to consider light - position long or selling put options strategies based on the factory production cost line while paying attention to risk prevention [18]. 3.2 Part 2: Offset Printing Paper Balance Sheet The balance sheet shows the monthly import, production, supply, demand, supply - demand gap, inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of offset printing paper from 2024 to 2025. In 2025, the cumulative import volume showed a certain change trend, and the production, supply, and demand also had different degrees of year - on - year changes. The inventory generally showed an upward trend compared to 2024 [20]. 3.3 Part 3: Offset Printing Paper Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Production Situation**: In 2025, many paper mills had production plans. A total of 1.4 million tons of production capacity had been put into operation, and 2.25 million tons were expected to be put into operation, mostly in the third quarter, including the resumption of Chenming's production. In 2026, the planned production capacity to be put into operation was 1.2 - 1.4 million tons [22]. - **Demand, Inventory, and Import - Export**: No detailed data or analysis content other than the overview part was provided in the given text. 3.4 Part 4: Offset Printing Paper Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Cost**: The raw material costs of different types of pulp, such as U - needle, Moon, and Goldfish, were at relatively low levels, and it was expected that the cost would have limited downward space [16]. - **Profit**: The production profit was expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner, with the profit of self - used pulp and low - cost production showing a downward trend [16]. 3.5 Part 5: Offset Printing Paper Price and Spread Analysis - **Spot Quotation**: The spot quotations of different brands of offset printing paper remained stable compared to the previous week but decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Futures - Spot Basis and Seasonal Chart and Inter - monthly Spread of OP Main Contract**: The basis was expected to remain stable or slightly decline, and the seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread analysis showed that January and March had certain seasonal characteristics [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pulp supply is expected to increase as there are no short - term shutdown and maintenance plans from pulp mills, and Chenming is operating at full capacity, with the output of broad - leaf pulp expected to rise gradually. Although the overseas pulp shipment volume did not significantly shrink from June to August, the arrival volume in China decreased by about 200,000 tons in August, and some shipments may arrive in September [7][8]. - The downstream pulp demand is stable. New production capacities are being put into operation, but the terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable output, gradually decreasing operating rates, and fluctuating inventories. The demand for household paper and white cardboard is entering the peak season, but the demand has not yet picked up [9][10]. - The pulp price shows a fluctuating and weak trend. The spot price is supported, but the futures price is affected by factors such as capital and old warehouse receipts, showing a fluctuating and weak trend. The prices of household paper and white cardboard are expected to rise as they enter the peak season, while the price of offset paper continues to decline during the off - season [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - **Domestic Production**: The output of domestic broad - leaf pulp and chemi - mechanical pulp increased in the week of September 19, 2025. There are no short - term shutdown and maintenance plans from pulp mills, and the output of broad - leaf pulp is expected to rise [7][8]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China's pulp import volume was 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 24.108 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The overseas shipment volume from June to August did not significantly shrink, but the arrival volume in China decreased in August, and some shipments may arrive in September [8]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - **Demand**: The downstream production of household paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard was stable this week. The new production capacities are being put into operation, but the terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable output, gradually decreasing operating rates, and fluctuating inventories. The demand for household paper and white cardboard is entering the peak season, but the demand has not yet picked up [9][10]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory is expected to show a fluctuating and accumulating trend as the arrival volume increases and the demand remains stable. The warehouse receipt inventory is stable and shows a slight decreasing trend. The low price has led to insufficient new warehouse receipt registrations, and the pressure on old warehouse receipts is acceptable. The downstream inventory tends to fluctuate and accumulate [10]. 1.3 Price and Spread - **Prices**: The overseas offer prices of silver star and goldfish remained unchanged this week, while the spot prices of some pulp varieties increased slightly. The futures price shows a fluctuating and weak trend, affected by factors such as capital and old warehouse receipts. The prices of household paper and white cardboard are expected to rise as they enter the peak season, while the price of offset paper continues to decline during the off - season [11][12]. - **Spreads**: The needle - broad spread is expected to narrow, but the range is still limited. The futures spread shows a weakening trend, and the basis has strengthened this week [12]. 1.4 Strategy Recommendation - The spot offer price of the industrial chain is stable. From the cancellation volume of warehouse receipts in the 09 contract, the actual digestion of old warehouse receipts is limited, and the intention to resell is strong. At the same time, the macro and market sentiment is poor, and the 11 contract is under pressure and increasing positions. In the short term, it is recommended to observe whether the port inventory reduction continues and the spot transaction situation [16]. Part 2: Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides a detailed pulp balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including supply (imports, domestic production), demand (pulp consumption, other demand), and inventory (warehouse receipt inventory, port inventory) data, as well as their year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [19]. Part 3: Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Global Pulp Shipment Volume**: No specific data and analysis are provided in the content. - **Demand and Inventory - European Apparent Demand and Inventory**: No specific data and analysis are provided in the content. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: - **Pulp Imports**: The report provides data on China's pulp imports from 2022 to 2025, including the import volume and cumulative import volume of bleached softwood pulp, bleached hardwood pulp, chemi - mechanical pulp, and other varieties, as well as their year - on - year changes [39][44][49]. - **Pulp Imports by Country**: The report provides data on the import volume and cumulative import volume of bleached softwood pulp from different countries (Russia, Chile, Canada, etc.) from 2022 to 2025, as well as their year - on - year changes [52][64][69]. - **Import of Wood Chips**: The report provides data on the import volume and cumulative import volume of coniferous and broad - leaf wood chips from 2022 to 2025, as well as their year - on - year changes [82][83][84]. - **Demand - side**: - **Pulp Apparent Demand**: No specific data and analysis are provided in the content. - **Analysis of Downstream Finished Paper**: The report provides information on the production, supply, demand, and inventory of downstream finished paper (household paper, offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard), as well as the planned production capacity and production time of new projects [93][109]. - **Inventory - side**: - **Total Pulp Inventory**: The report provides data on China's total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port inventory from 2022 to 2025 [156][157][158]. - **Inventory by Port**: The report provides data on the weekly inventory of pulp in different ports (Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port, Changshu Port, etc.) from 2022 to 2025 [163][164][166]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Pulp Import Cost and Profit**: The report provides data on the import cost and profit of pulp from 2022 to 2025 [173]. - **Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit**: The report provides data on the production cost and profit of domestic pulp from 2022 to 2025 [176]. Part 5: Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - **Pulp Overseas Offer Prices**: The report provides the seasonal price data of silver star, Russian needle, goldfish, etc. from 2022 to 2025 [181][186][187]. - **Price Spreads**: The report provides the seasonal spread data of silver star - goldfish, Russian needle - goldfish, etc. from 2022 to 2025 [189][190]. - **Basis**: The report provides the basis data of silver star - main contract, Russian needle - main contract from 2022 to 2025 [192][193][196]. - **SP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread**: The report provides the seasonal chart and inter - month spread data of the SP main contract from 2022 to 2025 [200].