晨会纪要 2025 年 7 月 10 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/7/10 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農あ | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 锌 | 多晶硅 | 燃油 | | | | 苹果 | 上证50股指期货 | 沥青 | | | | 红枣 | 中证500股指期货 | 氧化铝 | | | | 纯碱 | 工业硅 | 三十债 | | | | 锰硅 | 中证1000指数期货 | 橡胶 | | | | 塑料 | 沪深300股指期货 | 尿素 | | | | 硅铁 | 铝 | 稼校 | | | | 甲醇 | 棉花 | 玻璃 | | | | | 十债 | 焦炭 | | | | | 五债 | 焦煤 | | | | | 白糖 | 对二甲苯 | | | | | 棉纱 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the market trends of various futures are classified into trend short, short - biased volatile, volatile, long - biased volatile, and trend long. For example, polysilicon is in a trend short, while CSI 1000 Index Futures are volatile [3]. - Based on quantitative indicators, futures are classified as short - biased, volatile, and long - biased. For example, Shanghai Silver is short - biased, while Corn Starch is long - biased [7]. - In the macro - financial sector, for stock index futures, it is advisable to consider buying on dips and focus on the repair of the discount. For treasury bond futures, a volatile strategy is recommended [13][14]. - In the black sector, the short - term rebound of black futures is not advisable to chase short, and it is recommended to go short on rallies later [17][18]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, aluminum and alumina are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to operate within a range. For lithium carbonate, an oscillatory approach is recommended, and attention should be paid to the possibility of upstream production cuts [25][28]. - In the agricultural products sector, for cotton, the price is under pressure to rebound. For sugar, the international market is expected to have oversupply pressure, and the domestic market's future supply depends on imports. For eggs, it is recommended to short on rallies for the 07 - 09 contracts. For apples, a light - position positive spread strategy is recommended. For dates, it is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately. For live pigs, it is recommended to go short on rallies for near - month contracts and focus on the 7 - 9/3 - 5 reverse spread strategy [32][34][36][38][39][40]. - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices, and plastic may be short - term strong. Methanol is expected to rebound in the short term but with limited upside. For asphalt, it is expected to rebound following oil prices. For the polyester industry chain, it is advisable to go short on rallies or consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread for PTA. For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and for urea, short - term short operations are advisable for short positions [43][45][46][47][48][49][50]. Summary by Directory Macro News - The finance ministers and central bank governors of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states held a meeting in Beijing, discussing issues such as deepening regional financial cooperation and establishing a financial think - tank network [10]. - US economic data in May was weak. The ADP employment increase was lower than expected, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI contracted for the first time in nearly a year. Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates [10]. - FTSE Russell announced the quarterly review changes of the FTSE China Index series, with Jiangsu Bank being included in the FTSE China A50 Index and Great Wall Motor being removed [10]. - Trump's tariff policy is expected to cut the deficit by $2.8 trillion in 10 years but will lead to economic contraction and inflation [11]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed that the US economic activity declined slightly, and businesses faced cost - pushing pressure from tariffs [11]. - The US and Russian presidents had a phone call to discuss the Russia - Ukraine conflict and other issues [11]. Macro - Financial Stock Index Futures - The market liquidity expectation is high, and the market presents a general upward trend. The short - term disturbance may exist, but the stock index trend is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips and focus on the repair of the discount [13]. Treasury Bond Futures - After the cross - month, the capital market is loose, and the bond market sentiment is warm. The short - term bond is relatively expensive compared to the capital valuation, which restricts the long - side strength. A volatile strategy is recommended [14]. Container Shipping on the European Line - The previous trading momentum has been released, and the focus is now on the implementation of the freight rate increase on the European line. The 08 contract may be more elastic in the peak - season contracts but is currently in a high position and lacks new positive drivers. In the long - term, factors such as the re - balance of shipping capacity between routes and the peak - season demand need to be considered [15]. Black Steel and Iron Ore - Affected by the sharp rise in coking coal, the steel price rebounds after a significant decline. In the future, the downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the supply is expected to remain stable. It is not advisable to chase short in the short - term, and it is recommended to go short on rallies later [17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not changed substantially, and the medium - term trend is still weak. The short - term is affected by news and is expected to maintain a volatile rebound [18]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are relatively strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips. For manganese silicon, it is recommended to stop losses for short positions on dips [20]. Soda Ash and Glass - The short - term supply pressure of soda ash increases, and the spot price weakens. The production of float glass is stable with a slight increase, and the demand is not significantly improved. The prices of both are expected to be weak, and the short - term rebound space is limited [22]. Non - Ferrous and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum has low inventory and strong demand resilience but faces pressure in some terminal sectors. Alumina's supply is recovering, and both are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to operate within a range [25]. Lithium Carbonate - The impact of tariffs on lithium carbonate is not obvious. The short - term price is mainly affected by its own supply - demand changes. The possibility of further decline is reduced, and an oscillatory approach is recommended [28]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, a short - biased view is maintained before the effective reduction of supply during the wet season. For polysilicon, the over - supply contradiction is expected to deepen in June, and it is recommended to hold short positions or sell call options [29]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The cotton price is under pressure to rebound due to factors such as insufficient production motivation and inventory digestion. The future price is affected by macro - situation and supply - demand changes, and it is expected to be in a low - level oscillatory state [32][33]. Sugar - The international sugar market is expected to have oversupply pressure, and the domestic market's future supply depends on imports. The price is expected to be weak [34][35]. Eggs - In June, the supply and demand of eggs are expected to be relatively loose, and the price pressure is large. However, the downside support is increasing, and it is recommended to short on rallies for the 07 - 09 contracts [36]. Apples - A light - position positive spread strategy is recommended. The current inventory is low, and the price is expected to be stable. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation in the producing areas [38]. Dates - It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be in a range - bound state [39]. Live Pigs - It is recommended to go short on rallies for near - month contracts and focus on the 7 - 9/3 - 5 reverse spread strategy. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally [40][41]. Energy and Chemical Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil will follow the crude oil price, and the price is stronger than that of crude oil. The Middle East power - generation peak season and shipping weakness interact, and there is no main contradiction currently [43]. Plastics - The market sentiment has improved, and it may be short - term strong. It is recommended to take a short - term long position and pay attention to the profit - taking. For the inter - month spread, a long position for the 9 - 1 spread is recommended [45]. Methanol - The short - term rebound is expected, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to go short after the rebound. The supply pressure is large, but the low price will stimulate downstream demand [46]. Asphalt - It is expected to rebound following oil prices, with the upper pressure in the range of $3450 - 3480. The price is weaker than that of oil [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is advisable to go short on rallies or consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread for PTA. The supply is increasing marginally, and the downstream demand is decreasing marginally, and the price is expected to decline [48]. Pulp - The short - term is expected to be oscillatory, and it is recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the raw material and finished - product inventory rhythm [49]. Urea - There are positive factors on the policy side, but the futures price is closely related to the overall commodity futures market. Short - term short operations are advisable for short positions [50].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 6 月 4 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/6/4 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 橡胶 | 锰硅 | 烧碱 | 硅铁 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 沥青 | 三十债 | 中证500股指期货 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 橡胶 | 十债 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 生猪 | 二债 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 鸡蛋 | 五债 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | | 焦煤 | 尿素 | 硅铁 | | | 客服电话： | | 焦炭 | 白糖 | 燃油 | | | | | 红枣 | 纯碱 | | | | 400-618-6767 | | 工业硅 | 短纤 | | | | | | 多晶硅 | PTA | | ...

中泰期货烧碱周报 2025年6月3日 --------SH06合约临近交割仓单数量为0 烧碱期货呈现近强远弱格局 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-81916257 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 目 录 CONTENTS 02 氯碱价格 03 烧碱供应 04 氯碱需求 01 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 产量 | 上周中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.1%，环比+1.6%。西北、华北、华东新增重启或减产，带动负荷略有提升；华 | | | | 中、华南新增检修及减产装置，负荷下滑。山东产能利用率+1.8%至89.7%。本周来看，西北、华东均有装置装置提负，华北、华南新增 | | | | 检修装置，负荷下滑。因此综合来看，预计本周烧碱产能利用率在8 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 6 月 3 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/3 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 工业硅 | 氧化铝 | 对二甲苯 | | | | 纯碱 | 棉纱 | 短纤 | | | | 多晶硅 | 棉花 | PTA | | | | 橡胶 | 铝 | 燃油 | | | | 玻璃 | 尿素 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 白糖 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 生猪 | 烧碱 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 红枣 | 沥青 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 焦煤 | 螺纹钢 | 十债 | | | | 焦炭 | 苹果 | 二债 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1纯碱市场 - 纯碱检修计划衔接力度略不及预期及新产能投放取得进展，产量见底回升；前期基差力度不足导致未能形成持续正反馈，当前期现优势出货，厂家间压力分化 [8][9]。 - 供应重回上行，带动库存压力回升；终端备货较充足，终端利润状况较差，驱动偏弱。但阶段性盘面贴水较大，期现大幅出货后持货减少，结合头部厂家产量负荷波动，短期可转观望 [9]。 - 策略建议：前期空头思路可阶段逢低获利，重新等待入场机会 [9]。 2.2玻璃市场 - 需求氛围弱势及部分区域受低价期现货源压制，低价区厂家降价以促出货。部分厂家据自身情况点火复产 [169]。 - 估值角度进入理想布局区间，但须等待市场情绪好转启动。后续跟踪产线变动情况，观察低价期现货源消化进度及主产区现货量价情绪变化 [169]。 - 策略建议：市场暂缺上行驱动，远月合约待情绪缓和逢低做多思路 [169]。 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1纯碱市场 3.1.1市场综述 - 当期总产量68.51万吨，环比增加2.13万吨；重质产量36.98万吨，环比增加0.98万吨；轻质产量31.53万吨，环比增加1.15万吨 [8]。 - 进口0.1万吨，环比持平；出口4万吨，环比持平 [8]。 - 浮法玻璃日熔量157,275吨，环比减少250吨；光伏玻璃日熔量98,780吨，环比持平 [8]。 - 重碱消费量34.46万吨，环比减少0.04万吨；轻碱表需30.38万吨，环比增加3.01万吨；纯碱表需73.76万吨，环比增加3.86万吨 [8]。 - 碱厂库存162.43万吨，环比减少5.25万吨；社会库存36.80万吨，环比持平 [8]。 - 氨碱法成本1317元，环比持平；氨碱法利润83元，环比增加55元；联碱法成本1123元，环比减少33元；联碱法利润177元，环比增加33元 [8]。 3.1.2月度供需 - 当期纯碱进口0.46万吨，环比增加0.14万吨；出口17.06万吨，环比减少2.37万吨 [16]。 - 纯碱进口依赖度0.11，环比增加0.01 [16]。 3.1.3基差价差 - 展示了沙河地区重质纯碱市场价、纯碱期货价格指数、沙河玻璃5mm大板含税价、玻璃期货价格指数等期现货价格对照 [24][25][26][27]。 - 展示了沙河重质纯碱01、09、05合约基差，纯碱09 - 01、01 - 05、05 - 09价差，玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差等 [29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39][40][41]。 3.1.4市场价格 - 沙河区域重质纯碱市场价当期值1243元，环比上周下降45元，环比去年下降907元 [45]。 - 展示了轻重碱区域价格表，包括沙河、华北、华东等地区重质纯碱和轻质纯碱价格及环比情况 [49]。 3.1.5供应 - 目前检修/降负荷的厂家有山东海化、安徽德邦等多家企业；计划检修的厂家有丰城盐化、发投碱业等 [83]。 - 国内纯碱开工率当期值78.57%，环比上周下降0.06%；周产量68.51万吨，环比增加2.13万吨 [84]。 - 展示了氨碱工艺、联碱工艺开工率及各区域纯碱开工率 [85][88][90]。 - 展示了国内重质、轻质纯碱周产量及国内纯碱周产量 [92][93]。 - 展示了氨碱法、联碱法成本利润及相关品价格，如合成氨价格指数、河南液氨市场价等 [95][97][99][101][108][110]。 3.1.6需求 - 展示了光伏玻璃在产日熔量、浮法玻璃在产日熔量、重质纯碱日耗量、重质纯碱周度需求等数据 [131][133][134][135]。 - 展示了轻质、重质纯碱周度消费量、产销率及光伏玻璃价格 [137][140]。 3.1.7库存 - 纯碱企业库存当期值162.43万吨，环比上周减少5.25万吨；轻质纯碱企业库存81.83万吨，环比减少1.45万吨；重质纯碱企业库存80.6万吨，环比减少3.80万吨 [145]。 - 展示了各区域纯碱库存情况 [154][155][157][158][159][161]。 3.2玻璃市场 3.2.1市场综述 - 浮法玻璃日熔量当期值157,275吨，环比减少250吨；周产量110.09万吨，环比减少0.17万吨 [167]。 - 表观消费量110.94万吨，环比减少0.33万吨 [167]。 - 厂库库存338.31万吨，环比减少0.53万吨 [167]。 - 天然气线成本1448元，环比持平；天然气线利润 - 148元，环比减少10元；煤制气线成本953元，环比减少9元；煤制气线利润177元，环比减少1元；石油焦线成本1081元，环比持平；石油焦线利润19元，环比减少10元 [167]。 3.2.2月度供需 - 展示了平板玻璃当月产量、浮法玻璃当月进口量、出口量及平板玻璃当月产量同比数据 [174][176][178][180]。 3.2.3基差价差 - 展示了沙河地区重质纯碱市场价、纯碱期货价格指数、沙河玻璃5mm大板含税价、玻璃期货价格指数等期现货价格对照 [184][185][186][187]。 - 展示了沙河玻璃5mm大板01、09、05合约基差，玻璃09 - 01、05 - 09、01 - 05价差，玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差等 [189][190][192][194][195][196][199][201][202][203]。 3.2.4市场价格 - 展示了浮法玻璃5mm区域价格表，包括沙河、华北、华东等地区5mm小板和大板价格及环比情况 [207]。 - 展示了沙河、华东、华北等地区浮法玻璃(5mm)市场价及沙河玻璃5mm大板含税价、京津唐5mm玻璃大板含税价等 [209][210][211][220]。

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 5 月 30 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/5/30 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 工业硅 | 氧化铝 | 铝 | | | | | 沥青 | 生猪 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 液化石油气 | 对二甲苯 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 原油 | 三十债 | 燃油 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 鸡蛋 | PTA | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | | 多晶硅 | 乙二醇 | 中证500股指期货 | | | 客服电话： | | 橡胶 | 玻璃 | 硅铁 | | | | | 红枣 | 短纤 | | | | 400-618-6767 | | 橡胶 | 十债 | | | | | | 焦炭 | 五 ...

晨会纪要 2025 年 5 月 29 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | | | | 2025/5/29 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 工业硅 | 氧化铝 | 燃油 | | | | 多晶硅 | 沪深300股指期货 | 铝 | | | | 橡胶 | 原油 | 硅铁 | | | | 沥青 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | | 玻璃 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | | 纯碱 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 二债 | | | | | 锰硅 | 十债 | | | | | 红枣 | 五债 | | | | | 焦炭 | 三十债 | | | | | 生猪 | 尿素 | | | | | 焦煤 | 乙二醇 | | | | ...

| 2025/5/28 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農あ | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 多晶硅 | 氧化铝 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 工业硅 | 中证1000指数期货 | 铝 | | | | 纯碱 | 上证50股指期货 | 燃油 | | | | 对二甲苯 | 中证500股指期货 | 硅铁 | | | | 橡胶 | 三十债 | | | | | 乙二醇 | 二债 | | | | | 沥青 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | PTA | 十债 | | | | | 短纤 | 五债 | | | | | 橡胶 | 原油 | | | | | 红枣 | 玻璃 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 棉纱 | | | | | 锰硅 | 棉花 | | | | | 焦炭 | 白糖 | | | | | 焦煤 | 烧碱 | | | | | 生猪 | 螺纹钢 | | | | | | 热轧卷板 | | | | | | 铁矿石 | | | | | | 尿素 | | | | | | 纸浆 | | | | | | 原木 ...

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