课题组成员： 蔡含篇 陈丽娜 联系人： 蔡含篇 北京大学国民经济研究中心 基数效应叠加"反内卷"，通胀率继续低位前行 ——蔡含篇 CPI、PPI 点评报告 A0101-20250811 2025 年 7 月 上年同 期值 上期值 官方值 北大国民 经济研究 中心预测 值 Wind 市场 预测均值 CPI 同比 (%) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.12 PPI 同比 北京大学国民经济研究中心 宏观经济研究课题组 学术指导：刘伟 要点 ● 需求不足问题仍需重视，未来价格表现或有改善 联系方式： 010-62767607 gmjjyj@pku.edu.cn 扫描二维码或发邮件订阅 第一时间阅读本中心报告 (%) -0.8 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.44 组长：苏剑 ● 基数效应，CPI 增速小幅先降 ● "反内卷"叠加外部环境的不确定，PPI 同比继续底 部前行 北京大学国民经济研究中心 内容提要 2025 年 7 月，CPI 同比增长 0.0%，较前月下降 0.1 个百分点；环比增长 0.4%，较前月 上涨 0.5 个百分点，高基数效应使得本月 CPI 增速小幅下降。受供给充足影响，CPI ...

出口韧性复工复产步伐加快，进出口增速回暖 "一带一路"效应显现，支撑外贸走势稳中有进 ——蔡含篇 进出口点评报告 A0306-20250808 | | | | | 北大国民 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 07 | 上年同 | 上期值 | 官方值 | 经济研究 | Wind 市场 | | 月 | 期值 | | | 中心预测 | 预测均值 | | | | | | 值 | | | 出口同比 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 5.79 | | (%) | | | | | | | 进口同比 (%) | -2.4 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | | 贸易差额 （亿美元） | 987.4 | 1147.51 | 982.4 | 1112.8 | 1014.67 | 组长：苏剑 北京大学国民经济研究中心 课题组成员： 要点 震荡前行 联系人：蔡含篇 联系方式： gmjjyj@pku.edu.cn 扫描二维码或发邮件订阅 第一时间阅读本中心报告 陈丽娜 北京大学国民经济研究中心 宏观经济研究课题组 学术指导：刘伟 ● ...

Export Performance - In May 2025, China's total export value reached $316.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, down 3.3 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Exports to the United States saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 30.7%, worsening by 11.5 percentage points compared to April[7] - High-tech products, including integrated circuits and automobiles, showed notable growth, with integrated circuit exports increasing by 33.4% year-on-year[19] Import Performance - In May 2025, China's total import value was $212.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, a decline of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[20] - Imports from the United States decreased by 18.13%, while imports from the European Union saw a marginal decline of 0.05%[20] - The demand for traditional bulk commodities continued to decline, with iron ore and crude oil imports showing negative growth rates of -5.2% and 0.3%, respectively[21] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for May 2025 was $103.2 billion, indicating a decrease from the previous month's surplus of $106.8 billion[7] - The overall trade volume in May 2025 was $528.98 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.3%[7] Future Outlook - The external environment is expected to remain complex, with potential risks and opportunities for trade growth in 2025[23] - Domestic economic policies aimed at stabilizing growth may support a gradual recovery in import growth, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate market[23]

Export Performance - In May 2025, China's total exports reached $316.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Exports to the United States fell significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 30.7%, widening the drop by 11.5 percentage points compared to April[10] - High-tech products, including integrated circuits and automobiles, saw notable growth, with integrated circuit exports increasing by 33.4% year-on-year[22] Import Trends - In May 2025, China's total imports amounted to $212.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.4%, with the drop expanding by 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[23] - Imports from the United States decreased by 18.13%, while imports from the European Union saw a slight decline of 0.05%[23] - The demand for traditional bulk commodities continues to decrease, with iron ore and coal imports dropping by 5.2% and 9.5% respectively[23] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for May 2025 was $103.2 billion, indicating a continued positive balance despite the challenges in export and import dynamics[10] - The overall trade volume in May 2025 was $528.98 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.3%[10] Future Outlook - The external environment is expected to remain complex, with potential risks and opportunities for export growth in 2025, influenced by geopolitical factors and trade policies[26] - Domestic economic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are anticipated to gradually improve import growth, although challenges in the real estate market may continue to suppress demand for bulk commodities[26]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting that continued policy support will drive industrial growth and economic recovery [7][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that despite ongoing challenges in effective demand, certain regions and sectors are showing signs of stabilization and recovery due to the release of policy effects [7][8]. - Industrial production is gradually recovering under policy support, with high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing showing significant growth, while consumer goods manufacturing remains weak [17][23]. - The report emphasizes the need for further policy measures to stabilize employment and income expectations to sustain consumption growth [24][27]. Economic Growth - In January-February 2025, China's industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown compared to the previous year but still maintaining positive growth [17][19]. - The mining industry showed significant growth at 4.3%, while manufacturing growth slowed to 6.9% [19][20]. - High-tech industries grew by 9.1%, benefiting from government investments in sectors like semiconductors and AI [23][32]. Consumption - Social retail sales increased by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February 2025, driven by policy effects, particularly in office supplies and home appliances [24][25]. - The report notes that while certain categories like sports and communication equipment saw high growth rates, traditional daily consumer goods remained weak [25][27]. Investment - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year in January-February 2025, with notable increases in primary and tertiary sector investments [29][31]. - The report highlights that investment in high-tech industries rose by 9.7%, outpacing overall investment growth [32][34]. Trade - In January-February 2025, China's total import and export volume decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, with exports at $539.94 billion, up 2.3%, and imports at $369.43 billion, down 8.4% [35][44]. - The report attributes the decline in import growth to high base effects and ongoing structural adjustments in the domestic economy [44][47]. Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.7% year-on-year in February 2025, influenced by seasonal factors and increased supply of food products [48][51]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2%, indicating persistent economic pressure and insufficient effective demand [48][51].

Economic Growth - China's industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year in January-February 2025, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year[8] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year in January-February 2025, up 0.9 percentage points from 2024[9] - Social retail sales rose by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February 2025, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from 2024[9] Inflation and Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.7% year-on-year in February 2025, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from January 2025, potentially marking the year's lowest point[12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped by 2.2% year-on-year in February 2025, narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from January 2025, indicating persistent economic pressure[12] Trade and Exports - In January-February 2025, China's total exports amounted to $539.94 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, down 3.6 percentage points from 2024[37] - Imports totaled $369.43 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 8.4%, a drop of 9.5 percentage points compared to 2024[46] - The trade surplus reached $170.52 billion in January-February 2025[37] Monetary and Credit Conditions - New social financing in February 2025 was 22,333 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.3% compared to February 2024[13] - New RMB loans totaled 10,100 billion yuan in February 2025, a decrease of 30.3% from 14,500 billion yuan in February 2024[13] - M2 money supply grew by 7.0% year-on-year in February 2025, remaining stable compared to the previous month[15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The CPI growth rate for February 2025 is -0.7%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from January 2025, indicating a significant decline due to the timing of the Spring Festival [20][24] - The PPI for February 2025 decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing insufficient demand and economic pressure, despite a slight narrowing of the decline compared to January [20][51] - The report suggests that the current economic structure adjustments and insufficient effective demand require further stimulus to stabilize the economy [51][64] Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year growth rate for February 2025 is -0.7%, down from 0.5% in January, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% [20][24] - The decline in CPI is attributed to the Spring Festival's timing and a warm winter that increased the supply of fruits and vegetables, suppressing price increases [26][28] - Food prices showed a significant year-on-year decline, with fresh vegetables down 12.6% and overall food prices down 3.3% [29][32] PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline of 2.2% in February 2025 is a slight improvement from January, indicating persistent low demand and economic pressure [20][51] - The report highlights a divergence in price trends between traditional industries and high-tech sectors, with black metal prices down 10.6% and non-ferrous metal prices up 9.5% [51][64] - The PPI for production materials decreased by 2.6%, while living materials saw a decline of 1.2%, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [56][59] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a potential increase in CPI in 2025 due to "stabilizing growth and promoting consumption" policies, but warns of persistent economic pressures and insufficient internal demand [64] - The PPI may see slight increases in 2025 due to global economic recovery and low base effects, but domestic economic pressures remain significant [64]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The CPI growth rate has significantly declined due to the misalignment of the Spring Festival, indicating a potential bottom for the year [6][9] - The PPI continues to remain low, reflecting persistent insufficient demand and ongoing economic pressure, necessitating further economic stimulus [6][25] - Future price performance may improve, but the issue of insufficient demand remains a concern [37] Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - In February 2025, the CPI year-on-year growth was -0.7%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from January 2025, and a month-on-month decline of 0.2% [6][9] - The significant drop in CPI is attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival, which affects consumer demand patterns [9][11] - Warm winter weather has led to an abundant supply of fruits and vegetables, further suppressing CPI growth [11][13] PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline was 2.2% in February 2025, a slight narrowing from January, indicating ongoing low demand and economic pressure [25][30] - The report highlights a divergence in price trends between traditional industries and high-tech sectors, with black metal prices down 10.6% and non-ferrous metal prices up 9.5% [25][30] - The PPI remains at historical lows, necessitating continued "stability growth" policies to stimulate demand [26][30] Non-Food Price Trends - Non-food prices showed a year-on-year decline of -0.1% in February, with service prices down 0.4% [19][22] - The report notes a significant drop in prices for household services and tourism, reflecting reduced consumer demand post-Spring Festival [19][22] - Overall, non-food prices exhibited mixed trends, with some categories increasing while others decreased [22][23] Future Outlook - The report suggests that CPI growth may see a slight increase in 2025 due to "stability growth" and consumption promotion policies, but underlying economic pressures remain [37] - PPI growth may also rise slightly in 2025, influenced by global economic recovery and low base effects, although domestic economic challenges persist [37]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a dual contraction in both export and import growth rates due to high base effects, with exports growing by 2.3% and imports declining by 8.4% in January-February 2025 compared to the previous year [8][19] - The external environment is described as complex and variable, suggesting that foreign trade growth may experience fluctuations in the future [22] Summary by Sections Export Analysis - In January-February 2025, China's total export value reached 539.94 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, which is a decrease of 3.6 percentage points from 2024 [8][10] - High base effects from 2024, where exports grew by 7.1%, are identified as the primary reason for the decline in growth rate [10][12] - Traditional export categories such as bags and footwear saw significant declines, with footwear exports down by 18.3% [16] - Exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 60% of total exports, growing by 4.2% [16][18] Import Analysis - The total import value for January-February 2025 was 369.43 billion USD, with a year-on-year decline of 8.4%, marking a 9.5 percentage point drop from 2024 [19][21] - The report attributes the decline in import growth to high base effects and ongoing domestic economic structural adjustments, particularly a reduced demand for traditional bulk commodities [19][21] - Specific imports from major trading partners showed varied growth rates, with imports from the US increasing by 2.7% while those from the EU and Japan decreased [19][21] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the external environment will remain complex, with both risks and opportunities for exports in 2025, influenced by political changes in major trading partners [22] - For imports, a gradual recovery is expected due to domestic economic stabilization policies, although challenges remain from the real estate market and global trade barriers [24]

Export Performance - In January-February 2025, China's total export amounted to $539.94 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points compared to 2024[8] - The high base effect from 2024, where exports grew by 7.1%, significantly impacted the current export growth rate[10] - Exports of traditional goods like bags and shoes saw substantial declines, with shoe exports down by 18.3% year-on-year[16] Import Performance - In January-February 2025, China's total import reached $369.43 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 8.4%, a drop of 9.5 percentage points from 2024[19] - The decrease in imports is attributed to ongoing domestic economic restructuring and reduced demand for traditional bulk commodities like iron ore[19] - Imports from major trading partners showed varied performance, with imports from the EU and Japan declining by 5.6% and 4.9%, respectively[19] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for January-February 2025 was $170.52 billion, reflecting the difference between exports and imports[8] - The trade balance indicates a continued strong export performance despite the decline in growth rates[8] Future Outlook - The external environment for 2025 is expected to be complex, with potential risks and opportunities affecting export growth, particularly due to political changes in major trading partners[22] - Domestic economic policies aimed at stabilizing growth may support a gradual recovery in import growth, although challenges remain from high global trade barriers[24]