Investment Rating - The aviation industry is rated as "Overweight" [5] Core Views - The industry is expected to maintain a low supply growth rate, which could improve the supply-demand relationship and enhance airline profitability if demand recovers [1][4] - Despite weak ticket prices recently, the high passenger load factor indicates potential for revenue management improvements [1][4] - The report recommends continuous monitoring of peak season ticket prices and passenger load factors, with a positive outlook for major airlines [1][4] Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factor Performance - In June, the three major airlines maintained a high passenger load factor of 84.1%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Spring Airlines experienced a slight decline in load factor to 92.1%, while Juneyao Airlines showed improvement with a load factor of 86.7% [3] Revenue and Profitability Outlook - The three major airlines forecasted a narrowing of net losses for Q2 2025, with Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern expected to report net losses of 0.94 billion, 4.05 billion, and 8.00 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 78.0% [4] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to better revenue levels, with domestic ticket prices showing a smaller decline compared to previous quarters [4] Stock Recommendations - The report highlights several stocks with a "Buy" rating, including Air China (753 HK), China Eastern Airlines (670 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), and Spring Airlines (601021 CH) [8][21] - Target prices for these stocks are set at 6.90 HKD for Air China, 3.20 HKD for China Eastern, and 5.00 HKD for China Southern, among others [8][21]

Core Viewpoint - The three major Chinese airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) are expected to report significant reductions in net losses for the first half of 2025, but the overall performance remains uneven compared to international counterparts like Delta Airlines, highlighting a complex recovery landscape in the domestic aviation market [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Air China anticipates a net loss of between 17 billion to 22 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net loss of 18 billion to 24 billion yuan, showing improvement from a net loss of 27.82 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [2]. - China Eastern Airlines expects a net loss of 12 billion to 16 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net loss of 16 billion to 21 billion yuan, down from a net loss of 27.68 billion yuan year-on-year [2]. - China Southern Airlines projects a net loss of 13.38 billion to 17.56 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net loss of 17.54 billion to 23.80 billion yuan, although its net loss is slightly higher than the previous year's 12.28 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - The reduction in losses for the three major airlines is attributed to various strategies, including improved aircraft utilization, marketing strategies, and cost control measures [2]. - The airlines face challenges from high-speed rail competition on short-haul routes and insufficient ticket revenue, despite passenger volumes recovering to or exceeding 2019 levels [3][6]. - Hainan Airlines is expected to achieve a net profit of 45 million to 65 million yuan, indicating successful capacity adjustments and refined management compared to the larger airlines [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Expectations - The civil aviation industry in China has shown significant recovery momentum, with passenger transport volume reaching 370 million in the first half of 2025, a 5.9% increase year-on-year [4]. - During the summer travel season, passenger transport volume is expected to reach 150 million, reflecting a 5.4% year-on-year growth [4]. - Despite the recovery, the average ticket price for domestic routes has decreased by 7.1%, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability for airlines [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests that the three major airlines may further reduce losses, supported by declining fuel costs and a surge in outbound travel demand [4]. - However, the recovery path is complicated by factors such as consumer travel willingness, weather conditions, and ongoing competition from high-speed rail [6].

Group 1: Shipping Industry - The shipping industry is expected to see a divergence in freight rates, with crude oil rates softening while refined oil rates are recovering, indicating a potential bottoming out of oil shipping rates during the summer [1] - The current supply-demand dynamics suggest that marginal changes in demand could have a multiplier effect on freight rates, leading to a recommendation for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [1] - The container shipping sector is facing pressure on profitability due to ongoing tariff policies and a subdued economic outlook in Europe and the US, with a recommendation to monitor COSCO Shipping Holdings for potential alpha opportunities [1][2] Group 2: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector has entered the peak summer travel season, with domestic flight volumes increasing by 3.1% compared to the previous week, and overall flight volumes reaching 112.3% of 2019 levels [2] - The average ticket price for domestic routes has decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, while the passenger load factor has improved by 1.4 percentage points to 84.1% [2] - Investment recommendations include closely tracking ticket price performance during the summer peak and considering opportunities in airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2][5] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy released on July 1 aims to curb excessive competition in the express delivery sector, which is currently characterized by severe price competition [3] - The introduction of unmanned logistics vehicles is expected to significantly reduce costs for leading companies like SF Express and ZTO Express, with potential cost savings of approximately 2000 yuan per vehicle per month for SF Express [3][4] - Investment recommendations focus on SF Express due to its strong recovery in revenue growth and cost-saving measures, while also monitoring ZTO Express and Yunda Holdings for potential opportunities [3][5][6] Group 4: Overall Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic demand and high-dividend sectors, recommending companies with stable operations and controllable risks, including SF Express, ZTO Express, and China Southern Airlines [5] - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a growth rate of 21.5% for the year, driven by strong demand from e-commerce platforms [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price changes and the stability of franchisees in the express delivery industry to capitalize on the effects of the "anti-involution" policy [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses British Airways' request for China to include British citizens in its 30-day visa-free policy to boost market demand for the China-UK route [3][4][10] - Since the suspension of the Beijing-London route last year, British Airways has been observing the situation, indicating a potential urgency to return to the Beijing market [6][10] - The article highlights that many foreign airlines, including British Airways, have left the Chinese market but have not made definitive statements about permanently exiting [12][20][38] Group 2 - The current state of China's inbound and outbound travel market is not fully recovered, with statistics showing low recovery rates for international arrivals from countries like the US (45.24%) and Germany (56.19%) as of June [31][32] - The geopolitical situation, including the Russia-Ukraine war, has complicated air travel routes, increasing costs and reducing the feasibility for foreign airlines to return to the Chinese market [35][36][38] - Chinese airlines have rapidly filled the void left by foreign carriers, with significant increases in seat capacity on European routes compared to 2019, such as Air China increasing capacity by 24% [41][42] Group 3 - Despite the expansion of international routes by Chinese airlines, profitability remains a challenge, with major airlines reporting significant losses in the first quarter of 2025 [49][50] - The competitive landscape has led to complaints from foreign airlines about unfair competition, as Chinese carriers benefit from lower costs and subsidies [51][52] - The article concludes that while Chinese airlines have captured market share, the sustainability of this growth is uncertain if revenues do not keep pace with expansion efforts [53]

证券代码：600029 证券简称：南方航空 公告编号：临 2025-037 中国南方航空股份有限公司 2025 年 6 月主要运营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假 记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性 和完整性承担法律责任。 2025年6月，中国南方航空股份有限公司及所属子公司（以 下简称"本集团"）客运运力投入（按可利用座公里计）同比上 升4.57%，其中国内、地区和国际分别同比上升1.41%、4.38%和 14.60%；旅客周转量（按收入客公里计）同比上升6.69%，其中 国内、地区和国际分别同比上升3.60%、9.38%和16.56%；客座 率为85.18%，同比上升1.69个百分点，其中国内、地区和国际分 别同比上升1.81、3.77和1.41个百分点。 货运方面，2025年6月，货运运力投入（按可利用吨公里— 货邮运计）同比上升7.04%；货邮周转量（按收入吨公里—货邮 运计）同比上升6.51%；货邮载运率为55.02%；同比下降0.27个 百分点。 2025年6月，本集团新增主要航线情况如下：沈阳-银川-沈阳 1 3 （每周三班）、沈阳-呼和浩特-沈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The three major airlines in China reported significant losses for the first half of 2025, with noticeable performance differentiation among them. While Air China and China Eastern Airlines managed to reduce their losses, China Southern Airlines faced an increase in losses due to various challenges, including slow recovery of international routes and competitive disadvantages [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Air China is expected to report a net loss of 17 billion to 22 billion yuan, a reduction of 5.82 billion to 10.82 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2][3]. - China Eastern Airlines anticipates a net loss of 12 billion to 16 billion yuan, reducing losses by 11.68 billion to 15.68 billion yuan year-on-year [2][3]. - China Southern Airlines, however, is projected to incur a net loss of 11.68 billion to 15.68 billion yuan, an increase in losses by 1.1 billion to 5.28 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The domestic passenger market is showing signs of steady recovery, but factors such as declining ticket prices and competition from high-speed rail continue to pressure airline revenues [1][6]. - The average ticket price for domestic economy class in the first half of 2025 was 740 yuan, a decrease of 6.9% year-on-year [6][7]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with high-speed rail increasingly attracting high-end travelers away from airlines, while discounted airfares are drawing ordinary travelers to aviation [7][9]. Group 3: Operational Strategies - The three major airlines are focusing on expanding their routes in 2025, with Air China emphasizing the importance of both domestic and international route growth for profitability [5][10]. - Air China and China Eastern Airlines reported increases in passenger capacity and turnover, with Air China's capacity up by 3.5% and passenger turnover up by 5.5% in the first five months of the year [5][10]. - China Southern Airlines is also working to enhance its business travel market and international routes to mitigate its geographical disadvantages [10][13]. Group 4: Challenges and Outlook - China Southern Airlines faces significant operational challenges due to its geographical position, which has hindered the recovery of its international routes and increased competition in the domestic market [10][12]. - The airline's performance is further impacted by structural changes in passenger demographics and external factors such as international uncertainties and supply chain disruptions [10][12]. - As the critical summer travel season begins, all three airlines must navigate the dual challenges of revenue management and capacity allocation to improve their financial standings [1][13].

Group 1 - Cathay Pacific Haikou expects a net profit increase of 205%-218% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 15.283 billion to 15.957 billion yuan [1] - The main reason for the profit increase is the merger with Haitong Securities, which has led to significant growth in wealth management and trading revenues [1] - Shenyuan Hongyuan anticipates a net profit increase of 92.66%-111.46% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 4.1 billion to 4.5 billion yuan [6][7] Group 2 - Southern Airlines expects a net loss of 1.338 billion to 1.756 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to changes in passenger structure and international uncertainties [2] - China Eastern Airlines projects a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, influenced by intense domestic market competition [3] - Air China anticipates a net loss of 1.7 billion to 2.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, affected by market supply imbalances and international uncertainties [4] Group 3 - HNA Group expects to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 45 million to 65 million yuan, attributed to improved market conditions and operational adjustments [5] - CICC forecasts a net profit increase of 55%-78% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 3.453 billion to 3.966 billion yuan [8] - CITIC Securities anticipates a net profit increase of 55%-60% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 4.43 billion to 4.573 billion yuan [9] Group 4 - Shandong Gold expects a net profit of 2.55 billion to 3.05 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an increase of 84.3%-120.5% [10] - Poly Developments anticipates a net profit decrease of 63.15% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 2.735 billion yuan [11] - Luoyang Molybdenum expects a net profit increase of 51%-68% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 8.2 billion to 9.1 billion yuan [13] Group 5 - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, but with a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous year [14] - Tongwei Co. anticipates a net loss of 4.9 billion to 5.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, influenced by ongoing industry challenges [15] - Ganfeng Lithium expects a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an improvement from the previous year's loss [16] Group 6 - Jianghuai Automobile expects a net loss of approximately 680 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to increased competition in the international market [21] - Yonghui Supermarket anticipates a net loss of 240 million yuan for the first half of 2025, attributed to ongoing transformation challenges [22] - ST Huatuo expects a net profit increase of 107.2%-159% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 2.4 billion to 3 billion yuan [23] Group 7 - New Hope anticipates a net profit of 680 million to 780 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [25] - Linyi Intelligent Manufacturing expects a net profit increase of 32%-67% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 900 million to 1.14 billion yuan [27] - Pengding Holdings expects a net profit increase of 52.79%-60.62% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 1.198 billion to 1.26 billion yuan [29] Group 8 - Hengtong Electronics expects a net profit increase of 740.95% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of approximately 251 million yuan [30] - Shengyi Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 50%-56% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 1.4 billion to 1.45 billion yuan [31] - Founder Securities expects a net profit increase of 70%-80% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 2.299 billion to 2.43 billion yuan [33]

Group 1 - New Yi Sheng expects a net profit increase of 327.68%-385.47% for the first half of 2025, reaching between 37 billion to 42 billion yuan, driven by growth in AI-related computing power demand and product structure optimization [2][4] - Xinghui Entertainment plans to sell 99.66% of its stake in the Spanish club Espanyol for 1.3 billion euros, with half of the payment in cash and the other half in shares [3] - *ST Yushun intends to acquire 100% of three companies for a total of 33.5 billion yuan, aiming to diversify its business into data center infrastructure services and related products [4] Group 2 - Salted Fish plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 2.04%, with a major shareholder intending to sell 5,455,572 shares [5] - Lian Microelectronics expects a net loss of approximately 1.21 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [6] - Meinian Health anticipates a net loss of 1.92 billion to 2.36 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue expected to decline by 0.12%-5.83% [7] Group 3 - Chengdi Xiangjiang forecasts a net profit of 28 million to 42 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of 69.29 million yuan in the previous year [8] - Jinpu Titanium plans to acquire 100% of Nanjing Lide Oriental Rubber and Plastic Technology Co., Ltd., with stock resuming trading after the announcement [9] - Bohai Leasing expects a net loss of 1.8 billion to 2.4 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 due to goodwill impairment from a subsidiary's asset sale [10] Group 4 - Foton Motor anticipates a net profit increase of approximately 87.5% for the first half of 2025, reaching about 777 million yuan [11] - Shenwan Hongyuan expects a net profit growth of 92.66%-111.46% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 4.1 billion to 4.5 billion yuan [12] - Ganfeng Lithium predicts a net loss of 5.5 billion to 3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an improvement from a loss of 7.6 billion yuan in the previous year [13] Group 5 - Suzhou Planning intends to acquire 100% of Beijing Dongjin Aviation Technology Co., Ltd., with stock resuming trading after the announcement [14] - Xiangyang Bearing expects a net loss of approximately 13 million yuan for the first half of 2025, slightly worse than the previous year's loss [15] - Tianqi Lithium forecasts a net profit of 0 to 1.55 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant improvement from a loss of 5.2 billion yuan in the previous year [16] Group 6 - Shandong Gold anticipates a net profit increase of 84.3%-120.5% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 2.55 billion to 3.05 billion yuan [17] - Yunnan Geology expects a net profit of 16 million to 23 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss in the previous year [18] - Four-dimensional Map expects a net loss of 319 million to 268 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth of 3.07%-14.30% [19] Group 7 - Tangrenshen anticipates a net loss of 54 million to 69 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year's profit [20] - Changbai Mountain expects a net loss of 2.58 million to 1.58 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue decreasing by approximately 7.48% [21] - Jiu Gui Jiu predicts a net profit of 8 million to 12 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decline of 90.08%-93.39% compared to the previous year [22] Group 8 - Hengsheng Electronics expects a net profit increase of 740.95% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 251 million yuan [23] - Qixia Construction anticipates a net profit of 5.5 million to 8 million yuan for the first half of 2025, driven by increased project completions [24] - Poly Development expects a net profit decrease of 63.15% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 27.35 billion yuan [25] Group 9 - Anyuan Coal anticipates a net loss of 259 million to 310 million yuan for the first half of 2025, worsening from the previous year's loss [26] - Zhonghua Equipment plans to acquire 100% of Yiyang Rubber Machine and Beihua Machine, with stock suspension expected for no more than 10 trading days [27] - Bayi Steel expects a net loss of 650 million to 700 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to weak market conditions [28] Group 10 - Yuegui Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 58.67%-77.12% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 215 million to 240 million yuan [29] - Dalian Friendship expects a net loss of 38 million to 30 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue impacted by tax-related issues [30] - Hangfa Power expects a net profit decrease of 84.53%-86.55% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 80 million to 92 million yuan [31] Group 11 - Dongfang Zirconium anticipates a net profit increase of 141.77%-156.80% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 25 million to 34 million yuan [32] - Hangzhou Steel expects a net profit decrease of 2% from a major shareholder's planned reduction [33] - Jingao Technology predicts a net loss of 2.5 billion to 3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, worsening from the previous year's loss [34] Group 12 - Shanshan Co. expects a net profit increase of 810.41%-1265.61% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 160 million to 240 million yuan [35] - Guocheng Mining anticipates a net profit increase of 1046.75%-1174.69% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 493 million to 548 million yuan [36] - Jindi Group expects a net loss of 3.4 billion to 4.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with significant declines in revenue [37] Group 13 - Founder Securities anticipates a net profit increase of 70%-80% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 22.96 billion to 24.32 billion yuan [38] - Hasi Lian expects a net loss of 98 million to 80 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year [39] - Lanhua Ketech expects a net profit decrease of 89.12%-92.75% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 40 million to 60 million yuan [40] Group 14 - Shanxi Securities anticipates a net profit increase of 58.17%-70.72% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 5.04 billion to 5.44 billion yuan [41] - Xinda Real Estate expects a net loss of 3.5 billion to 3.9 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with significant declines in revenue [42] - Xiangcai Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 63.64%-118.19% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 12 million to 16 million yuan [43] Group 15 - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, despite an increase in sales volume [44] - Wentai Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 178%-317% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 390 million to 585 million yuan [45] - Ruida Futures expects a net profit increase of 50.56%-83.15% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 206 million to 251 million yuan [46] Group 16 - Debang Co. anticipates a net profit decrease of 84.26%-87.86% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 40 million to 52 million yuan [47] - Jin Yi Culture expects a net loss of 20 million to 32 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year [48] - Hongdian Film expects a net profit increase of 103.55%-160.09% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 180 million to 230 million yuan [49] Group 17 - Qiaqia Food anticipates a net profit decrease of 71.05%-76.25% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 80 million to 97.5 million yuan [50] - Guotai Haitong expects a net profit increase of 205%-218% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 15.283 billion to 15.957 billion yuan [51] - Xining Special Steel expects a net loss of approximately 234 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue impacted by low steel prices [52]

但相比去年同期，国航业绩已经有了明显改善。根据2024年发布的财报显示，国航在2024年上半年净亏 损达到27.82亿元。 国航在报告中对业绩改善的原因进行了解读，认为今年以来中国经济平稳增长，航空市场持续发展。公 司抓住机遇全力推进提质增效。加强生产组织，提升可用飞机利用率夯实投入基本盘；精细营销把控， 推动"保价争量"稳定收益品质；严格成本管控，降低成本水平拓展效益空间；上半年经营效益稳步改 善，同比实现大幅减亏。 中国东方航空股份有限公司（下称"东航"，600115.SH）在7月14日发布的上半年业绩预告中披露，公司 预计2025年上半年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为-12亿元至-16亿元。上年同期归属于上市公司股东的 净利润为-27.68亿元。 7月14日晚间，国有三大航空公司均发布了2025年上半年业绩预告。从目前披露的数据显示，这三家中 国最大的航空公司仍未能实现扭亏，但已经显示出明显的业绩改善迹象。 根据中国国际航空股份有限公司（下称"国航"，601111.SH）发布的业绩预告显示，预计2025年半年度 归属于上市公司股东的净亏损约为17亿元到22亿元。 按照国航方面的说法，上半年经营效益稳步改善 ...

证券代码：600029 证券简称：南方航空 公告编号：临 2025-036 中国南方航空股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司""公司"） 2025 年半年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润预计为负值。 公司归属于上市公司股东的净利润预计为人民币-13.38 亿 元到人民币-17.56 亿元，归属于上市公司股东扣除非经常 性损益后的净利润预计为人民币-17.54 亿元到人民币 -23.80 亿元。 到人民币-17.56 亿元。 中国南方航空股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预亏公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假 记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性 和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 6 月 30 日。 （二）业绩预告情况 1.经公司财务部门初步测算，预计公司 2025 年半年度将出 现亏损，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为人民币-13.38 亿元 三、本期业绩预亏的主要原因 2025 年上半年，公司统筹抓好安全生产经营，投足投准运 力，加强客货销售，但受旅客结构变化、高铁冲击、国际环境不 ...