行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 2026 年 02 月 06 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 研 究 报 告 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 聚焦粮食稳产提质，重视农业科技 看好 ——2026 年中央一号文件点评 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 券 相关研究 行业点评 表 1：农林牧渔重点公司估值表 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | | 2026/2/5 | | 申万 EPS（元/股） | | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 收盘价(元) | 总市值（亿元） | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2 ...

证券之星消息，2月3日动物保健板块较上一交易日上涨1.15%，*ST绿康领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4067.74，上涨1.29%。深证成指报收于14127.1，上涨2.19%。动物保健板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002868 | *ST绿康 | 36.70 | 3.29% | 1.10万 | 3960.68万 | | 300871 | 回盛生物 | 28.30 | 2.83% | 16.64万 | 4.67亿 | | 920970 | 大禹生物 | 8.14 | 2.13% | 2.33万 | 1892.03万 | | 603566 | 普莱柯 | 14.00 | 2.04% | 6.61万 | 9186.90万 | | 920275 | 驱动力 | 9.15 | 1.78% | 1.49万 | 1360.88万 | | 920729 | 永顺生物 | 9.43 | 1.73% | 5.21万 | 4848.32万 | | 688526 | 科前生物 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The price of piglets follows a clear historical pattern, with expectations for continued price increases followed by a decline around May/June. A significant capacity reduction cycle is anticipated in 2026, primarily occurring in the second half of the year, while stock prices are expected to start rising in the first half [5][6] - The report emphasizes that piglet prices are influenced by production patterns, with December and January being peak slaughter months, leading to increased demand for piglets. Conversely, supply remains relatively stable, which can lead to price increases when demand surges [7] - The report highlights that piglet prices do not correlate with pig price expectations and cannot be used to predict pig prices. The annual variations in piglet prices are consistent, while pig prices fluctuate yearly, indicating a lack of direct relationship [7] - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, predicting a significant capacity reduction cycle in 2026. It suggests that the first half of 2026 will resemble the first half of 2023, with losses in fat pigs but profits in piglets, leading to a smoother capacity reduction after the anticipated price drop in May/June [7] - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Biological, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, as their valuations are currently at the bottom, with potential for stock price increases as the industry faces losses and clearer capacity reduction trends [7][8] Summary by Sections Historical Price Trends - Piglet prices exhibit a clear historical trend, typically bottoming out in December/January and peaking in May/June. The fluctuations are tied to seasonal production patterns and demand cycles [5][7] Production and Supply Dynamics - The report discusses the relationship between supply and demand, noting that while supply is stable, demand spikes during certain months can lead to price increases. The cyclical nature of pig farming is highlighted, with adjustments made to align production with demand [7] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies a significant capacity reduction cycle in the pig farming industry for 2026, suggesting that investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and current low valuations, as they are likely to benefit from the anticipated market changes [7][8]

从资金流向上来看，当日动物保健板块主力资金净流入5981.69万元，游资资金净流入2201.21万元，散户 资金净流出8182.9万元。动物保健板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，1月30日动物保健板块较上一交易日下跌0.23%，金河生物领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4117.95，下跌0.96%。深证成指报收于14205.89，下跌0.66%。动物保健板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300871 | 回盛生物 | 29.46 | 3.51% | 30.31万 | 9.01亿 | | 002868 | *ST绿康 | 35.79 | 1.97% | 1.12万 | 3943.24万 | | 920970 | 大禹生物 | 8.54 | 1.79% | 5.41万 | 4640.00万 | | 688098 | 申联生物 | 9.53 | 1.49% | 5.11万 | 4838.44万 | | 600195 | 中牧股份 | 8.17 | 0.74% | 2 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日动物保健板块主力资金净流入1802.32万元，游资资金净流出2735.26万元，散户 资金净流入932.94万元。动物保健板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，1月28日动物保健板块较上一交易日下跌0.2%，永顺生物领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4151.24，上涨0.27%。深证成指报收于14342.9，上涨0.09%。动物保健板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600201 | 生物股份 | 18.78 | 1.51% | 71.49万 | | 13.16亿 | | 002688 | 金河生物 | 6.80 | 1.49% | 37.94万 | | 2.55 Z | | 920970 | 大禹生物 | 8.35 | 1.46% | 4.01万 | | 3369.19万 | | 002868 | *ST绿康 | 35.41 | 0.03% | 2.68万 | | 9485.97万 | | 600195 | 中牧股份 | 8. ...

证券之星消息，1月27日动物保健板块较上一交易日下跌2.78%，回盛生物领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4139.9，上涨0.18%。深证成指报收于14329.91，上涨0.09%。动物保健板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002868 | *ST绿康 | 2988.76万 | 24.73% | -4066.41万 | -33.65% | 1077.65万 | 8.92% | | 600195 中牧股份 | | 2127.67万 | 5.68% | 4526.16万 | 12.07% | -6653.83万 | -17.75% | | 002688 金河生物 | | 1929.37万 | 5.73% | -1475.90万 | -4.39% | -453.46万 | -1.35% | | 300119 瑞普生物 | | 1604.24万 | 5.07% | 1360.73万 | 4.3 ...

Group 1 - The animal health sector experienced a significant increase of 5.61% on January 26, with Yongshun Biological leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] - Key stocks in the animal health sector showed notable price increases, with Yongshun Biological rising by 27.18% to a closing price of 11.79, and Huisheng Biological increasing by 20.01% to 32.62 [1] Group 2 - The animal health sector saw a net inflow of 437 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 307 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for Yongshun Biological reached 292,600 shares, contributing to a total transaction value of 328 million yuan [1][2] - The stock performance of various companies in the sector varied, with some experiencing significant gains while others faced declines in retail investment [3]

动物疫苗概念资金流入榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅 | 今日换手率 | 主力资金流量（万 | 主力资金净流入比率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （%） | （%） | 元） | （%） | | 600201 | 生物股 份 | 4.50 | 5.08 | 10015.22 | 9.87 | | 002385 | 大北农 | 2.70 | 6.49 | 4265.78 | 4.50 | | 002688 | 金河生 物 | 5.95 | 9.28 | 4125.08 | 8.93 | | 002100 | 天康生 物 | 1.99 | 2.95 | 3648.45 | 12.76 | | 688526 | 科前生 物 | 6.78 | 2.92 | 3381.64 | 14.32 | | 600267 | 海正药 业 | 3.40 | 2.76 | 2083.60 | 5.83 | | 300119 | 瑞普生 | 5.20 | 5.97 | 1831.19 | 4.34 | 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600201 | 生物股份 | 17.35 | -1.42% | 31.57万 | 5.51亿 | | 603566 | 普莱柯 | 13.78 | -0.72% | 5.94万 | 8171.47万 | | 600195 | 中牧股份 | 8.49 | -0.59% | 14.59万 | 1.23亿 | | 002868 | *ST绿康 | 37.28 | -0.43% | 8137.0 | 3038.12万 | | 300119 | 瑞普生物 | 20.38 | -0.39% | 4.53万 | 9258.76万 | | 002141 | 贤丰控股 | 4.19 | 0.00% | 154.61万 | 6.70亿 | | 688098 | 申联生物 | 9.97 | 0.10% | 5.22万 | 5205.80万 | | 002688 | 金河生物 | 6.39 | 0.16% | 13.54万 | 8616.98万 | | 688526 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The animal health sector experienced a slight increase of 0.54% on January 22, with Xianfeng Holdings leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.14% to close at 4122.58, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.5% to 14327.05 [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xianfeng Holdings (002141) closed at 4.19, up 9.97% with a trading volume of 720,300 shares and a transaction value of 297 million yuan [1]. - Other notable performers include Biological Shares (600201) at 17.60, up 1.79%, and Zhongmu Shares (600195) at 8.54, also up 1.79% [1]. - The overall trading volume and transaction values for various stocks in the animal health sector indicate active market participation [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The animal health sector saw a net inflow of 73.79 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 27.83 million yuan [2]. - The main capital inflow was primarily directed towards Xianfeng Holdings, which attracted 121 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 40.71% of its trading volume [3]. - Other stocks like Jinhe Biological (002688) and *ST Green Health (002868) also saw varying degrees of net inflow and outflow from different investor categories [3].