Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - High oil prices are benefiting the renewable energy sector, with expectations for increased demand and profitability in lithium batteries [1]. - The report highlights significant growth in energy storage and electric vehicle markets, driven by government policies and technological advancements [4][5]. Industry Trends - The energy storage sector is experiencing robust growth, with countries like Croatia and Spain investing heavily in solar and storage projects. The report anticipates a global energy storage installation growth of over 60% in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 30-50% from 2027 to 2029 [4][5]. - In the electric vehicle market, there was a notable decline in retail sales in early March, but expectations for recovery are set for April, with a projected annual growth of around 3% [4][5]. - The report also notes a significant increase in lithium prices, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 158,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a 4.8% increase [4]. Company Performance - Notable company performances include: - Ningde Times: 2025 revenue of 804 billion CNY, a 4% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 32.6 billion CNY, down 19% [4]. - BYD: 2025 revenue of 804 billion CNY, with a net profit of 32.6 billion CNY, reflecting a 19% decrease [4]. - Other companies like Ganfeng Lithium and CATL are also highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential [4][5]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on companies leading in energy storage and lithium battery production, such as Ningde Times, Ganfeng Lithium, and others, due to their strong growth prospects and market leadership [4][5]. - It emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and government policies in driving the growth of the renewable energy sector, particularly in energy storage and electric vehicles [4][5].

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 29 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 证券分析师 虽然动力电池销量短期受国内新能源车销量下滑影响，但是新能源车出口数据较为 亮眼，叠加国内商用车、重卡、工程机械电动化率不断提升，今年以来动力电池销 量表现较好。据中国汽车工业协会数据，2026 年 1-2 月，新能源汽车国内销量 112.6 万辆，同比下降 27.5%，新能源汽车出口 58.3 万辆，同比增长 110%。据乘联分会 统计，动力电池市场 1-2 月累计同比增幅达到 37.4%，今年以来动力电池装机量持 续增长。 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邱达治 SAC：S1350525050001 qiudazhi@huayuanstock.com 联系人 秦雨茁 qinyuzhuo@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 锂电旺季已到，1-2 月我国天然气产 量增长进口下降 ——大能源行业 2026 年 ...

- The report focuses on tracking large buy orders and net active buy orders using transaction detail data[1][2] - Two key indicators are used: the proportion of large buy order transaction amounts and the proportion of net active buy order amounts[7] - The proportion of large buy order transaction amounts reflects the buying behavior of large funds[7] - The proportion of net active buy order amounts reflects investors' active buying behavior[7] - The report provides rankings for stocks, industries, and ETFs based on these indicators over the past 5 trading days (20260309-20260313)[4][6] Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name**: Large Buy Order Transaction Amount Proportion - **Construction Idea**: To track the buying behavior of large funds[7] - **Construction Process**: - Restore transaction data to buy and sell order data using the buy and sell sequence numbers in the transaction detail data - Filter out large orders based on transaction volume - Calculate the proportion of large buy order transaction amounts to the total transaction amount of the day[7] - **Evaluation**: This indicator effectively captures the buying behavior of large funds[7] 2. **Model Name**: Net Active Buy Order Amount Proportion - **Construction Idea**: To track investors' active buying behavior[7] - **Construction Process**: - Identify each transaction as either an active buy or an active sell using the buy and sell markers in the transaction detail data - Subtract the transaction amounts of active sells from active buys to get the net active buy amount - Calculate the proportion of net active buy amounts to the total transaction amount of the day[7] - **Evaluation**: This indicator effectively captures investors' active buying behavior[7] Model Backtest Results 1. **Large Buy Order Transaction Amount Proportion** - **Top 5 Stocks**: - Jiugang Hongxing: 87.2%, 90.5%[9] - Wentou Holdings: 86.6%, 97.1%[9] - Jinbin Development: 86.3%, 86.4%[9] - Ningbo Construction: 85.6%, 98.8%[9] - Xining Special Steel: 85.3%, 97.9%[9] - **Top 5 Industries**: - Banking: 81.3%, 61.3%[13] - Real Estate: 79.8%, 51.0%[13] - Construction: 78.5%, 88.9%[13] - Comprehensive: 77.9%, 46.1%[13] - Steel: 77.7%, 35.4%[13] - **Top 5 ETFs**: - Guotai SSE 10-Year Treasury Bond ETF: 95.4%, 99.6%[15] - Huatai-PineBridge MSCI China A50 Interconnection ETF: 94.0%, 93.4%[15] - Huatai-PineBridge CSI A500 ETF: 93.2%, 90.9%[15] - Guotai CSI A500 ETF: 92.5%, 53.9%[15] - Huaxia CSI A500 ETF: 92.0%, 97.5%[15] 2. **Net Active Buy Order Amount Proportion** - **Top 5 Stocks**: - Minsheng Bank: 22.2%, 98.8%[10] - SDIC Power: 21.8%, 97.1%[10] - Everbright Bank: 19.5%, 99.6%[10] - Zhejiang Bank: 19.2%, 96.3%[10] - Shangtai Technology: 18.9%, 100.0%[10] - **Top 5 Industries**: - Banking: 10.5%, 64.2%[13] - Food & Beverage: 4.7%, 56.0%[13] - Real Estate: 2.5%, 50.2%[13] - Construction: 0.4%, 72.4%[13] - Basic Chemicals: -0.9%, 75.7%[13] - **Top 5 ETFs**: - Harvest CSI Green Power ETF: 35.4%, 98.4%[16] - E Fund CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF: 21.6%, 97.9%[16] - Huatai-PineBridge CSI All Index Power Utilities ETF: 18.7%, 97.9%[16] - Southern S&P China A-Share Large Cap Dividend Low Volatility 50 ETF: 15.7%, 96.7%[16] - GF GEM ETF: 13.8%, 90.9%[16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new energy vehicle industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The supply-demand structure is continuously optimizing, with many product prices on the rise. In February, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 694,000 and 765,000 units, respectively, down 21.8% and 14.2% year-on-year. Cumulatively, from January to February, production and sales totaled 1.735 million and 1.71 million units, down 8.8% and 6.9% year-on-year. New energy vehicles accounted for 41.2% of total new car sales. The supply side is seeing new products from battery and main engine manufacturers, with positive feedback from demand, leading to a continuous optimization of the supply-demand structure. Prices are stabilizing and rising, particularly for lithium carbonate and lithium iron phosphate, with strong demand and tight supply [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Tracking - The new energy vehicle index, lithium battery index, fuel cell index, charging pile index, and energy storage index had weekly changes of +0.91%, +5.37%, -0.79%, -2.15%, and +5.55%, respectively. Notable performers included Foshan Technology, Hunan Youneng, and Penghui Energy, with increases of 29.9%, 22.6%, and 22.0% [4][24]. 2. Lithium Battery Industry Chain Price Tracking - Since the beginning of the year, lithium carbonate prices have increased by 33.1%, driving up lithium iron phosphate by 27.3%. This week, lithium carbonate was priced at 159,100 CNY/ton, up 2.5% from last week. Other materials like nickel and cobalt also saw slight increases [29][30][32]. 3. Production and Sales Data Tracking - In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 units, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 21.8% and 14.2%. Cumulatively, from January to February, production and sales reached 1.735 million and 1.71 million units, with new energy vehicles making up 41.2% of total new car sales [45][49]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The U.S. has decided not to impose tariffs on battery materials imported from China, which is expected to positively impact the industry. Additionally, significant developments in the new energy sector were highlighted, including NIO's record quarterly profit and Li Auto's substantial revenue growth [71][68][69]. 5. Key Company Announcements - Companies like Shenling Environment and Jiebang Technology have made significant announcements regarding investments and shareholder changes, indicating active engagement in the market [73][74][75]. 6. Industry Rating and Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on high-potential areas such as data center liquid cooling, solid-state batteries, battery materials, robotics, and autonomous driving, while maintaining a positive outlook on the new energy vehicle industry [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new energy vehicle industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The supply-demand structure is continuously optimizing, with many product prices on the rise. In February, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 694,000 and 765,000 units, respectively, down 21.8% and 14.2% year-on-year. Cumulatively, from January to February, production and sales totaled 1.735 million and 1.71 million units, down 8.8% and 6.9% year-on-year. New energy vehicles accounted for 41.2% of total new car sales. The supply side is seeing new products from battery and main engine manufacturers, with positive feedback on demand, leading to a continuous optimization of the supply-demand structure. Prices are stabilizing and rising, particularly for lithium carbonate and lithium iron phosphate, with strong demand and tight supply [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Tracking - The new energy vehicle index, lithium battery index, fuel cell index, charging pile index, and energy storage index had weekly changes of +0.91%, +5.37%, -0.79%, -2.15%, and +5.55%, respectively [4][21]. 2. Lithium Battery Industry Chain Price Tracking - Since the beginning of the year, lithium carbonate prices have increased by 33.1%, driving up lithium iron phosphate by 27.3%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has decreased by 38.3%. This week, lithium carbonate was priced at 159,100 CNY/ton, up 2.5% from last week [29][30][32]. 3. Production and Sales Data Tracking - In February, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 694,000 and 765,000 units, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 21.8% and 14.2%. Cumulatively, from January to February, production and sales reached 1.735 million and 1.71 million units, with new energy vehicles making up 41.2% of total new car sales [45][49]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The U.S. has decided not to impose tariffs on certain battery materials imported from China, which is expected to positively impact the industry [5][71].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the new energy sector, particularly in lithium battery materials, is driven by the U.S. decision not to impose tariffs on Chinese battery materials, which is seen as a significant positive for the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On March 13, the lithium battery index rose by 3%, with notable stocks like Jinzhengdai hitting the limit up within a minute of opening. A total of 35 stocks in the sector saw gains exceeding 5% [2]. - The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) ruled that imports of key battery components from China did not harm domestic industries, leading to a positive market response [2]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - The U.S. decision means that previously imposed high tariffs on Chinese anode materials, which were as high as 93.5% for specific exporters, will not be applied, benefiting the negative electrode materials the most [2][3]. - The previous tariffs included a 160.32% to 169.58% cash deposit requirement for importers, which will now be lifted, enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese battery materials [3]. Group 3: Future Trends - Starting in 2025, the lithium battery midstream sector is expected to enter a "recovery-prosperity" phase, driven by a new round of capacity expansion and breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology [3]. - The demand for lithium batteries is projected to reach 2,280.5 GWh globally by 2025, with energy storage accounting for 29% of this demand. By 2026, demand is expected to rise to 3,016 GWh, with energy storage projected at 1,090 GWh [4][5]. Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The supply-demand dynamics in the lithium battery materials sector have changed significantly compared to two years ago, with cautious capacity expansion in upstream materials expected to lead to over 80% utilization by the end of 2025 [4]. - The overall industry is entering a proactive inventory replenishment phase, with a decline in power battery inventory and an increase in energy storage inventory [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [11]. Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is experiencing internal rotation, with mid-term demand expected to continue rising. However, short-term price increases and negative feedback on demand may create volatility. If upstream supply issues ease, such as the resumption of lithium mica production by CATL, market confidence in demand may strengthen. Additionally, if industry production exceeds expectations or enters a peak season, price elasticity may increase, particularly for lithium carbonate, 6F, and iron lithium [3][30]. - In the mid-term, segments with stronger certainty and greater potential, such as separators, copper foil, and anodes, are expected to lead the market [3][30]. Separator Segment - The separator industry is entering a period of oversupply, with prices declining significantly, leading to reduced profitability for companies. The capacity utilization rate for wet-process separators is expected to recover positively due to sustained lithium battery demand [6][32]. - The penetration rate of wet-process separators is projected to increase, with expectations of a significant demand boost from the transition to 5μm products. This may lead to a tightening supply-demand balance and potential price surges in the future [6][42][50]. Copper Foil Segment - The copper foil industry is facing challenges due to supply-demand mismatches and technological iterations. However, the industry is at a cost support stage, with production expansion stagnating and profitability expected to recover as demand strengthens [8][58]. - The market for high-value low-profile (HVLP) copper foil is anticipated to grow rapidly, driven by high-frequency and high-speed requirements in AI servers, leading to a potential upgrade cycle [8][58]. Anode Segment - The anode segment is currently experiencing low profitability, with weak expansion intentions across the industry. Capacity utilization rates are expected to improve gradually, with potential catalysts needed for price increases, such as rising upstream petroleum coke prices or stricter energy consumption policies [9][30].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological iterations, leading to a spiral growth pattern of "increased volume and price + technological leap" [3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Global lithium battery production is projected to reach 2297 GWh by 2025, with a growth rate of 34.6% in 2026. The shipment growth rate for energy storage cells is expected to reach 70%, driven by both domestic and international demand [5]. - There is a significant supply gap for battery cells and various materials, highlighting the need for stable and efficient supply chains to capitalize on this growth opportunity [5]. Group 2: Conference Overview - The 2026 Lithium Key Materials and Application Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, focusing on two main topics: advanced technology and market supply-demand discussions, and upstream-downstream procurement matchmaking [4][6]. - The summit will feature specialized forums on lithium carbonate, key materials for power batteries, and key materials for energy storage batteries, with participation from experts, leading companies, and international specialists [5]. Group 3: Key Topics and Participants - Key topics include the potential of global lithium resources, the impact of solid-state battery development on lithium salt companies, and the practical aspects of lithium carbonate futures and supply-demand outlook [7]. - Notable participants include top battery companies like CATL, BYD, and LGES, as well as material suppliers covering the entire industry chain, which will facilitate efficient resource matching and cost reduction [6]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Strategic Insights - The lithium battery industry is positioned to play a crucial role in energy transition and carbon neutrality goals as it enters the 14th Five-Year Plan's conclusion and the 15th Five-Year Plan's initiation [6]. - The summit aims to provide authoritative data releases, benchmark company rankings, and deep industry chain connections to offer forward-looking insights and practical cooperation platforms for high-quality development in the lithium battery sector [6].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is poised for a significant growth cycle starting in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological advancements, leading to a "spiral rise" in both volume and price [3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Global lithium battery production is expected to reach 2297 GWh by 2025, with a growth rate of 34.6% in 2026. The shipment growth rate for energy storage cells is projected to be as high as 70%, driven by dual domestic and international demand [5]. - There is a notable supply gap in the current effective production capacity for battery cells and various materials, making supply chain stability and efficiency crucial for capitalizing on this growth opportunity [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Key Materials and Applications Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on two main topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, and B2B procurement matchmaking to connect top battery manufacturers and material suppliers [6]. Group 3: Key Topics and Participants - The conference will feature specialized forums on lithium carbonate, key materials for power batteries, and energy storage batteries, with participation from industry experts and leading companies [5][6]. - Notable topics include the potential of global lithium resources, the impact of solid-state battery development on lithium salt companies, and strategies for navigating market volatility [7][8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to experience a significant growth wave in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological iterations, leading to a spiral increase in both volume and price [3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - By 2025, global lithium battery production is projected to reach 2297 GWh, with a growth rate of 34.6% in 2026. The shipment growth rate for energy storage cells is anticipated to reach 70%, driven by both domestic and international demand [5]. - There is a notable supply gap in the effective production capacity of battery cells and various materials, making supply chain stability and efficiency crucial for capitalizing on this growth opportunity [5]. Group 2: Conference Overview - The 2026 Lithium Key Materials and Applications Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information. The summit will focus on two main topics: advanced technology and market supply-demand discussions, and upstream-downstream procurement matchmaking [4][6]. - The summit will feature specialized forums on lithium carbonate, key materials for power batteries, and key materials for energy storage batteries, inviting experts and leading companies to analyze the evolving supply-demand landscape for the lithium battery industry [5][6]. Group 3: Key Topics and Participants - Key discussion topics include the potential of global lithium resources, the impact of solid-state battery development on lithium salt companies, and strategies for lithium battery enterprises to cope with market volatility [7][8]. - Notable participants include top battery companies like CATL, BYD, and LGES, as well as material suppliers covering the entire industry chain, which will facilitate efficient resource matching and cost reduction [6][8].