智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研报称，粘胶短纤是最主要的再生纤维，我国为主要生产国。近年来 我国粘胶短纤产能有所缩减，行业头部企业通过兼并收购、产能扩张等方式实现市场份额持续提升。当 前行业呈现高开工、低库存的状态，随着三季度传统需求旺季来临，行业景气度有望提升。"反内卷"背 景下，建议关注具备规模优势的头部企业：三友化工（600409.SH）、中泰化学（002092.SZ）。 天风证券主要观点如下： 粘胶短纤是最主要的再生纤维，我国为主要生产国 再生纤维包括粘胶纤维、醋酯纤维、莱赛尔、莫代尔、铜氨纤维等，2023年全球粘胶纤维产量占再生纤 维的产量比例为80%。根据纤维长度不同，粘胶纤维可分为粘胶短纤、胶粘长丝，其中，粘胶短纤为我 国粘胶纤维市场中占比最大的细分产品，占比约为95%（产量占比，2024）。 从产量上看，据TextileExchange统计，2023年全球粘胶纤维产量约630万吨，其中我国粘胶纤维产量为 412万吨，占全球产量的65%，为第一大生产国。 近年来我国粘胶短纤产能有所缩减，行业集中度高（CR3>70%） 由于粘胶短纤在生产过程中会产生大量废酸和废气，对环境造成污染；因此行业新增产 ...

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 基础化工 证券研究报告 2025 年 09 月 12 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 中性(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 中性 | 粘胶短纤是最主要的再生纤维，我国为主要生产国 再生纤维包括粘胶纤维、醋酯纤维、莱赛尔、莫代尔、铜氨纤维等，2023 年全球粘胶纤维产量占再生纤维的产量比例为 80%。根据纤维长度不同，粘 胶纤维可分为粘胶短纤、胶粘长丝，其中，粘胶短纤为我国粘胶纤维市场中 占比最大的细分产品，占比约为 95%（产量占比，2024）。 从产量上看，据 Textile Exchange 统计，2023 年全球粘胶纤维产量约 630 万吨，其中我国粘胶纤维产量为 412 万吨，占全球产量的 65%，为第一大生 产国。 近年来我国粘胶短纤产能有所缩减，行业集中度高（CR3>70%） 由于粘胶短纤在生产过程中会产生大量废酸和废气，对环境造成污染；因此 行业新增产能受到相关环保及产业政策的约束。同时，2019-2023 年期间， 在行业产能过剩情况下经历长期亏损状态，叠加贸易摩擦等需求放缓的影 响，导致部分落后产能出清，新增产能投放意愿不 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in China's naphtha production, with a reported output of 6.33 million tons in July 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [1] - Cumulative naphtha production from January to July 2025 reached 46.181 million tons, showing a slight decline of 0.1% compared to the previous year [1] - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, indicating a comprehensive analysis of the naphtha industry in China [1] Group 2 - The article mentions several listed companies in the naphtha sector, including Sinopec (600028), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), and Donghua Energy (002221) among others [1] - Zhiyan Consulting has released a report titled "Market Supply and Demand Situation and Future Trend Analysis of China's Naphtha Industry from 2025 to 2031," which provides insights into the industry's future [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of industry research and consulting services in aiding investment decisions, showcasing Zhiyan Consulting's expertise in the field [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The demand for viscose staple fiber is expected to grow steadily due to high cotton prices and strong downstream textile consumption [14][15] - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen capacity consolidation since 2021, leading to increased industry concentration [6][26] - The industry is currently experiencing high operating rates and low inventory levels, contributing to a rising price trend for viscose staple fiber [7][39] - The report recommends "Sanyou Chemical" as a key investment target and "Zhongtai Chemical" as a beneficiary of the price increase in viscose staple fiber [43][44] Summary by Sections Demand Side - The apparent consumption of viscose staple fiber is projected to be 3.81 million tons in 2023 and 4.09 million tons in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.74% and 7.28% respectively [5][14] - The retail sales of clothing and textiles in China reached 742.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.10% [5][15] - The introduction of new spinning equipment, particularly vortex spinning, is expected to further drive demand for viscose staple fiber [19] Supply Side - The effective capacity of viscose staple fiber has decreased from a peak of 5.13 million tons in 2021 to 4.885 million tons in 2024, a decline of 4.8% [6][25] - The industry has seen minimal new capacity additions since 2021, with a current operating rate of 87.6% as of August 2025 [7][31] - The top three companies in the viscose staple fiber industry hold a combined market share (CR3) of 69.77%, indicating a high level of concentration [26][34] Price Dynamics - The price of viscose staple fiber has been increasing, supported by a favorable supply-demand balance, while the price of its main raw material, dissolving pulp, has been declining [39][41] - The price difference between viscose staple fiber and dissolving pulp has widened, indicating improved profitability for industry leaders [39][41] - The report anticipates that the price of viscose staple fiber will continue to rise due to strong downstream demand and seasonal factors [39][41]

Summary of Viscose Staple Fiber Industry Research Industry Overview - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen a significant increase in concentration, with the top three companies, Sidelong, Zhongtai Chemical, and Tangshan Sanyou, increasing their market share from 27% in 2014 to 72% in 2024, with Sidelong holding 37% [1][2] - The apparent consumption of viscose staple fiber in China is projected to grow from 3 million tons in 2014 to over 4.2 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% [1][8] - The total production capacity of viscose staple fiber has gradually decreased since 2022, with a reduction of about 9% expected by the end of 2024, bringing total capacity to approximately 4.82 million tons, down from a peak of 4.85 million tons [1][5] Supply-Side Dynamics - The supply-side situation is characterized by capacity contraction, strict policy controls, and market structure optimization. Since 2022, there has been no new capacity added, and the overall capacity has decreased by about 10% over the past three years [2][5] - Policies have been implemented to restrict supply-side development, including the elimination of outdated capacity (approximately 550,000 to 560,000 tons) and raising energy consumption standards [6][2] - The industry currently operates at a high utilization rate of 85%-86%, with low inventory levels, which supports price increases during the traditional peak season [1][9] Demand-Side Trends - The demand for viscose staple fiber is closely linked to the textile and apparel sector's performance. The demand structure has shifted, with the proportion of cotton blended yarn decreasing and non-woven fabric demand increasing [3][8] - By 2024, cotton blended yarn is expected to account for 55% of downstream demand, down 22% from 2015, while non-woven fabric's share is projected to rise to 18% from just 3% in 2015 [8] - The price of viscose staple fiber is expected to rise due to the correlation with cotton prices, which have been increasing as cotton inventories reach a seven-year low [4][9] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape has changed significantly, with the top three companies now holding over 72% of the market share. The market concentration has increased from less than 30% in 2014 to 72% in 2024 [7][2] - Other companies with production capabilities include Jilin Chemical Fiber (120,000 tons) and Nanjing Chemical Fiber (80,000 tons), but the overall market remains highly concentrated [7][11] Price Trends - Over the past 20 years, viscose staple fiber has experienced four major price increases driven by various factors, including market acceptance, demand growth, and policy changes [10] Key Companies - Major companies in the viscose staple fiber sector include Sanyou Chemical, Zhongtai Chemical, Jilin Chemical Fiber, and Nanjing Chemical Fiber, with Sanyou Chemical having the largest external sales at approximately 820,000 tons [11]

Group 1 - The stock price of Zhongtai Chemical increased by 2.06% on September 1, reaching 4.96 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 12.846 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 15.08%, with a 1.64% rise over the last five trading days, 6.21% over the last 20 days, and 5.08% over the last 60 days [2] - As of August 20, the number of shareholders for Zhongtai Chemical was 89,700, a decrease of 0.54% from the previous period, with an average of 28,714 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 0.55% [2] Group 2 - Zhongtai Chemical's main business includes the production and sales of PVC resin and caustic soda, with revenue composition as follows: PVC 39.69%, caustic soda 14.99%, viscose yarn 14.83%, and other chemical products [2] - For the first half of 2025, Zhongtai Chemical reported operating revenue of 13.955 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 8.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -194 million CNY, an increase of 20.00% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 2.222 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 259 million CNY distributed in the last three years [3]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Chemical (002092.SZ) reported a decline in revenue but a 20% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, primarily due to improved gross profit margins despite ongoing losses [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 13.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -194.1 million yuan, an improvement from -242.7 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - Investment losses significantly impacted overall performance, with investment income at -110.8 million yuan, accounting for 70.19% of total profit, primarily due to losses from joint ventures [2][4] Product Performance - The gross profit margins for core products PVC and viscose yarn were under pressure, with PVC's margin dropping to 9.31%, a decline of 33.24 percentage points compared to the first half of 2021 [6] - The textile industrial segment's viscose yarn revenue decreased by 5.2% to 2.07 billion yuan, with its gross margin falling to 0.37%, down 18.36 percentage points from the same period in 2021 [6] Inventory and Cash Flow - The company's inventory balance reached 2.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.33%, with inventory write-down losses amounting to 51.23 million yuan, representing 32.44% of total profit [3] - Operating cash flow net amount dropped to 1.235 billion yuan, a significant decline of 54.72% year-on-year, while financing cash flow surged to 1.634 billion yuan, an increase of 296.91% [7][8] Debt and Liquidity - Zhongtai Chemical faced heavy debt burdens, with total liabilities rising to 51.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, and an asset-liability ratio of 64.85%, up 3.48 percentage points [8] - The company had a cash balance of 7.249 billion yuan, with short-term borrowings of 5.216 billion yuan, indicating a liquidity gap of 9.7 billion yuan [8]

Group 1 - The stock price of Zhongtai Chemical has decreased by 2.01% on August 28, trading at 4.88 CNY per share with a total market capitalization of 12.639 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 13.23%, with a 2.31% rise over the last five trading days and a 4.05% increase over the last 20 days [2] - As of August 20, the number of shareholders for Zhongtai Chemical is 89,700, a decrease of 0.54% from the previous period [2] Group 2 - Zhongtai Chemical's main business includes the production and sales of polyvinyl chloride resin and ion membrane caustic soda, with revenue contributions of 39.69% from polyvinyl chloride, 14.99% from caustic soda, and 14.83% from viscose yarn [2] - The company reported a revenue of 13.955 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -194 million CNY, an increase of 20% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, Zhongtai Chemical has distributed a total of 2.222 billion CNY in dividends, with 259 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3]

Company Overview - Zhongtai Chemical is located in Urumqi Economic and Technological Development Zone, established on December 18, 2001, and listed on December 8, 2006 [1] - The company specializes in the production and sales of chemical products, including polyvinyl chloride resin and ion membrane caustic soda [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Zhongtai Chemical achieved operating revenue of 13.955 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.32% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -194 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.00% [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 2.222 billion yuan, with 259 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Stock Performance - As of August 25, Zhongtai Chemical's stock price increased by 2.10%, reaching 4.86 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 12.587 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 12.76%, with a 2.53% increase over the last five trading days [1] - The stock has experienced a 1.02% decline over the past 20 days and a 4.52% increase over the past 60 days [1] Shareholder Information - As of August 20, the number of shareholders is 89,700, a decrease of 0.54% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per person is 28,714, an increase of 0.55% from the previous period [2] Industry Classification - Zhongtai Chemical belongs to the basic chemical industry, specifically in the chemical raw materials and chlor-alkali sector [2] - The company is associated with several concept sectors, including cement, coal chemical, low-priced stocks, and Xinjiang revitalization [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Chemical has reported continuous losses for three consecutive years, with significant declines in both revenue and net profit, primarily due to a challenging market environment in the chlor-alkali industry and its textile business [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Zhongtai Chemical achieved operating revenue of 13.955 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.32% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 194 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 243 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. - For the full year of 2023, the company reported an operating revenue of 37.118 billion yuan, down 28.15%, and a net loss of 2.865 billion yuan [2]. - In 2024, operating revenue further declined to 30.123 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.84%, with a net loss of 977 million yuan [2]. Industry Context - The chlor-alkali industry is experiencing low overall market conditions, with significant price declines in PVC products impacting Zhongtai Chemical's performance [3][4]. - The price of liquid caustic soda fell dramatically from 3,000 yuan per ton in Q4 2024 to 852 yuan per ton by August 2025, leading to reduced profit margins for companies in the sector [3]. - The PVC powder market has shown a downward trend, with the average price for SG-5 (PVC powder) at 4,939 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025, down 11.23% year-on-year [3]. Regulatory Issues - Zhongtai Chemical faced penalties for information disclosure violations, including financial fraud, leading to a fine of 5 million yuan and a warning from regulatory authorities [6][7]. - The company was found to have engaged in non-operating fund occupation transactions totaling 7.718 billion yuan between 2021 and 2022, significantly impacting its financial reporting [6].