Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The industry is experiencing dual support for pig prices due to supply and demand factors, with expectations for continued pressure on large pig sales from individual farmers [4][13] - The overall trend indicates a reduction in breeding stock, with significant implications for the industry as losses in pig farming accelerate [26] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - There is significant short-term pressure on large pig sales from individual farmers, while large farming groups face less pressure to meet annual sales targets [4][13] - As of December 5, 2025, the average price of pigs nationwide is 11.19 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 4.40 yuan/kg [4][13] Weekly Perspective - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to an accelerated reduction in breeding stock. The price of pigs continues to decline, creating deeper losses for farmers [26] - Recommendations include companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [26] Market Performance (December 1-5) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.86 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37% while the agricultural index fell by 1.49% [28][32] - Notable stock performances include Haodangjia (+16.15%), Xiwang Food (+10.26%), and Biological Shares (+9.66%) [28][35] Price Tracking (December 1-5) - The average price of pigs on December 5 is 11.20 yuan/kg, with a slight increase from the previous week [38] - The average price of piglets is 19.26 yuan/kg, also showing a week-on-week increase [38] - Other agricultural products such as white feather chicken and beef have seen price increases, with corn futures rising by 2.50% [38][49] Major Meat Import Volumes - In October 2025, pork imports totaled 70,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%, while chicken imports were 7,100 tons, down 72.1% [55][57] Feed Production - In October 2025, the total industrial feed production in China was 29.07 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.2% [57]

Group 1: Market Performance - The consumer sector continues to experience a pullback, with the Consumer ETF (159928) declining nearly 1% for the fourth consecutive day, with a trading volume exceeding 450 million yuan [1] - The Consumer ETF (159928) has accumulated over 420 million yuan in inflows over the past 20 days, and as of December 3, its latest scale exceeds 21.1 billion yuan, leading its peers significantly [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer 50 ETF (159268) also fell nearly 1%, with a trading volume exceeding 24 million yuan, and it received a net subscription of 2 million shares during the day, accumulating over 67 million yuan in inflows over the past 20 days [3] Group 2: Valuation and Investment Strategy - As of December 3, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio of the Consumer ETF (159928) is 19.74, which is at the 3.99% percentile over the past 10 years, indicating a higher valuation attractiveness [5] - Market style is expected to favor low valuations as the year-end approaches, with seasonal patterns suggesting a shift in investor allocation strategies [5] - High dividend and stable performance stocks are recommended for long-term attention in the context of insufficient growth and declining interest rates [7] Group 3: Alcohol Industry Insights - The white liquor sector is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with the demand and pricing strategies of leading brands like Moutai remaining uncertain [8] - Moutai's pricing strategy includes maintaining high-quality development and focusing on market-oriented marketing transformations, with an emphasis on digital and green transitions [8] - The white liquor sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, particularly with the upcoming long holiday period, which may support valuation recovery [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Recent disclosures from multiple listed companies regarding share buybacks reveal significant shifts in institutional investor positions, indicating divergent strategies among institutions towards traditional industries and favoring certain sectors like technology, military, and pharmaceuticals [1][2]. Institutional Dynamics - Intense competition among institutions is evident, particularly with Hai Da Group, where 8 out of the top 10 shareholders are public funds and social security funds, collectively holding over 120 million shares, accounting for more than 7% of total equity [1][2]. - Notable fund manager Liu Yanchun's fund reduced its holdings in Hai Da Group by 362,600 shares, while foreign institution Merrill Lynch exited the top 10 shareholders list [1][2]. Contrasting Strategies - Social security funds, such as the National Social Security Fund's 106 and 109 portfolios, have increased their stakes in Hai Da Group, contrasting with the reductions by other institutions [2]. - Similar trends are observed with Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, where certain funds increased their holdings while others, like Zhuque Fund, reduced theirs significantly [2]. Performance Metrics - Hai Da Group reported a net profit of 4.177 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 18.71%, while Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism achieved a net profit of 143 million yuan, up 33.47% [2]. - Other companies like Hengmingda and Huaron Co. have also seen institutional increases in holdings, particularly in popular sectors such as consumer electronics and pharmaceuticals [3][4]. Sector Trends - Companies in high-growth sectors, such as Hengmingda and Huaron Co., have attracted significant institutional investment, with notable increases from social security funds [3][4]. - Conversely, stocks that have experienced substantial price increases, such as Hot Scene Biology and Shanghai Mechanical, have faced reductions in institutional holdings as investors seek to realize profits [5][6]. ETF Influence - The presence of ETFs in the top 10 shareholders of nearly 30% of A-shares indicates a growing trend where ETF movements are influencing individual stock holdings, often due to changes in fund subscriptions or index compositions [6].

Group 1: Market Performance - The consumer sector experienced a decline, with the Consumer ETF (159928) dropping by 0.49%, marking its third consecutive day of decline, and a trading volume exceeding 250 million yuan [1] - The Consumer ETF (159928) saw a net subscription of 26 million units during the day, with a net inflow of 107 million yuan yesterday, accumulating over 390 million yuan in the past 20 days [1] - As of December 2, the latest scale of the Consumer ETF (159928) exceeded 21.3 billion yuan, leading its peers significantly [1] Group 2: Policy and Support Measures - Hunan province introduced 11 measures to boost consumption, emphasizing increased financial support for key consumption areas such as trade circulation and life services [3] - Hainan province issued a child-rearing subsidy plan, providing annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for eligible families starting from January 1, 2025 [3] Group 3: Valuation and Investment Outlook - The Consumer ETF (159928) has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 19.89, which is at the 4.41% percentile over the past decade, indicating a high valuation attractiveness [5] - Seasonal trends suggest that Q4 often sees shifts in investment styles, with December being a period where low valuation stocks may gain favor [5] Group 4: Future Consumption Trends - According to Jiangyin International, consumer spending is expected to see a slight recovery in 2025, with moderate growth continuing into 2026, driven by structural changes in consumer demand [7] - The consumer confidence index is gradually improving but remains below the threshold, indicating cautious consumer sentiment [7] Group 5: Food and Beverage Sector Insights - Huachuang Securities anticipates that traditional leading companies in the food and beverage sector will improve their market share, while new industry trends are emerging [8] - The food and beverage industry is expected to stabilize after a period of supply-demand imbalance, with a focus on traditional products like beer and dairy [9] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards new demands and business models, with opportunities in functional foods and health products [9]

天风农业团队指出，受气温下降影响，山东南部、辽宁西部部分区域有零星猪病散发，本周90kg以下小 体重猪整体出栏占比为4.83%，较上周增加0.34%。连续增长7周，后续需持续观察。政策引导减产&养 殖亏损&疫病干扰情况下，后续产能有望持续去化。机构强调，重视生猪板块空间，重视优秀企业的盈 利能力，在25年猪价持续低位&政策引导情况下，后续产能有望去化。 截至2025年12月3日 13:29，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)成分股罗牛山(000735)上涨9.98%，益客食品 (301116)上涨3.36%，金新农(002548)上涨2.82%，海利生物(603718)上涨2.50%，中牧股份(600195)上涨 2.23%。畜牧ETF(159867)上涨0.46%，最新价报0.65元。 畜牧ETF紧密跟踪中证畜牧养殖指数，中证畜牧养殖指数选取涉及畜禽饲料、畜禽药物以及畜禽养殖等 业务的上市公司证券作为样本，以反映畜牧养殖相关上市公司的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)前十大权重股分别为牧原股份(002714)、 温氏股份(300498)、海大集团(002311) ...

Core Insights - Recent announcements from multiple listed companies reveal significant adjustments in the top ten shareholders, indicating shifts in institutional investment strategies, particularly in traditional industries and popular sectors like technology, military, and pharmaceuticals [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Investment Dynamics - There is a notable divergence in investment strategies among institutions regarding traditional industry stocks, with some institutions increasing their holdings while others are reducing them [2]. - For instance, Hai Da Group (002311) saw mixed actions from institutions, with some reducing their stakes while others, like social security funds, significantly increased their holdings [2]. - Social security funds have shown a tendency to increase their positions in certain stocks, such as Hai Da Group, which reported a net profit growth of 18.71% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Popular Sectors Gaining Attention - Stocks in high-demand sectors such as consumer electronics, military, chips, and pharmaceuticals have attracted institutional interest, with significant increases in holdings from various funds [4]. - Companies like Hengmingda (002947) and Huaron Co. (603855) have seen substantial increases in shares held by institutions, reflecting a positive outlook on their business prospects [4]. - Performance metrics indicate that companies favored by social security funds, like Hengmingda and Huida Technology, have reported impressive profit growth, with Hengmingda achieving a 30.05% increase in net profit for the first three quarters [5]. Group 3: Reduction in High-Growth Stocks - Some stocks that experienced significant price increases earlier in the year have faced reductions in institutional holdings, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [6]. - For example, Shanghai Mechanical (600835) and Naxin Micro (300184) have seen reductions in shares held by major institutions after substantial price gains [6]. - The trend of reducing holdings in previously high-performing stocks suggests a cautious approach from institutions as they reassess their investment strategies [6].

Group 1 - The company, Haida Group (002311.SZ), announced a share buyback program, having repurchased a total of 905,100 shares, which represents approximately 0.05% of its total share capital [1] - The highest price paid for the repurchased shares was 59.50 yuan per share, while the lowest price was 55.10 yuan per share [1] - The total amount spent on the share buyback was 51,705,890.00 yuan, excluding transaction fees [1]

证券代码：002311 证券简称：海大集团 公告编号：2025-065 广东海大集团股份有限公司 关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 广东海大集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分别于2025年10月28日、 2025年11月14日召开了第七届董事会第四次会议、2025年第四次临时股东会，审 议通过了《关于以集中竞价方式回购公司股份方案的议案》，同意公司以集中竞 价交易方式回购公司部分已在境内发行的A股股票，用于依法注销减少注册资本 及实施股权激励计划及/或员工持股计划。具体内容详见公司在指定信息披露媒 体《证券时报》《中国证券报》《上海证券报》《证券日报》和巨潮资讯网披露 的《关于以集中竞价方式回购公司股份方案的公告》《关于以集中竞价方式回购 公司股份方案的报告书》，公告编号：2025-055、2025-061。 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 9号——回购股份》等相关规定，公司应在回购期间每个月的前三个交易日内披 露截至上月末的回购进展情况，现将公司回购股份进展情 ...

Core Insights - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming industry, is experiencing a downturn with significant profit declines due to falling pig prices and macroeconomic capacity adjustments [2][6][7] - Leading companies with low costs and strong cash flow are recommended for investment, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Dekang Agriculture, and Shennong Group [2][6] - The feed industry shows continued growth, with major players like Haida Group benefiting from increased sales and improved profit margins [3] - The pet food sector is witnessing high growth in proprietary brands, although overall profits are under pressure due to declining export revenues [4] Pig Farming Industry - In Q3 2025, the pig farming sector's revenue decreased by 6% year-on-year to approximately 121.6 billion yuan, with net profit dropping by 70% to around 5.9 billion yuan [2] - The average profit for self-breeding and self-raising pigs fell to 42 yuan per head, a decrease of about 13 yuan from Q2 2025 [2][7] - The industry is entering a phase of loss-driven capacity reduction, with supply pressures expected to persist into the first half of 2026 [6][7] Feed Industry - The feed sector's revenue grew by 13.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a 14.2% increase in Q3 [3] - Major feed companies are seeing a rise in sales volume and market share, with Haida Group's feed exports increasing by approximately 24% [3] - The outlook for the feed industry remains positive, with expectations for continued growth in both domestic and international markets [3] Pet Food Industry - The pet food sector's revenue increased by 9.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, but net profit fell by 6.1% [4] - Domestic sales for leading brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are growing at around 40% [4] - Export revenues for pet snacks have declined, particularly in the U.S. market, where exports fell by 42% [4]

Summary of Earnings Estimates for China Commodities Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China commodities** sector, specifically covering various sub-sectors including steel, coal, cement, aluminum, copper, gold, EV metals, paper, and agriculture. Key Points in Earnings Estimates Revisions - **General Update**: Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed to reflect mark-to-market price changes for Q3 2025 and the current quarter. Target price changes range from -5% to +5%, with investment ratings remaining unchanged. The changes are not viewed as material, and the overall investment thesis remains intact [1][2]. Steel Sector - **Baosteel and Maanshan-H/A**: Earnings estimates cut by 3% to 5%. Loss estimates for Angang-H/A increased by 4% for 2025E [9]. Coal Sector - **Shenhua-H/A, Yankuang-H/A, Chinacoal-H/A**: Earnings estimates updated by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on recent coal price trends. Chinacoal-H/A target price adjusted to HK$6.5 from HK$6.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Cement Sector - **CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, CRBMT**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +3% for 2025-27E, reflecting recent unit gross profit trends [9]. Aluminum Sector - **Chalco-H/A and Hongqiao**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market aluminum and alumina prices. Hongqiao target price fine-tuned to HK$20.0 from HK$19.6, maintaining a Neutral rating [9]. Base Metals (Copper and Gold) - **Zijin-H/A, JXC-H/A, CMOC-H/A, MMG, Zhaojin**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market prices of copper and other metals [9]. EV Metals - **Huayou and GEM**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market nickel/cobalt prices and cathode spreads. Huayou's target price fine-tuned to Rmb32.6 from Rmb32.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Paper Sector - **ND Paper and Sun Paper**: Earnings estimates updated by 0% to 2% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market paper prices [10]. Agriculture Sector - **Hog and Feed Coverage**: Earnings estimates revised by -5% to +3% for companies like Wens, New Hope, Haid, and Dabeinong, incorporating mark-to-market hog and feed prices. For animal health and conventional seeds, estimates revised by -5% to -2% [10][13]. Target Price Methodologies and Risks - **Cement Companies**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include weaker-than-expected construction demand and slower unauthorized cement capacity exit [14]. - **Base Metals**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include lower commodity prices and operational risks [14]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering these estimates as part of a broader investment decision-making process, highlighting potential conflicts of interest due to Goldman Sachs' business relationships with covered companies [3]. This summary encapsulates the key updates and insights from the earnings estimates for the China commodities sector, providing a comprehensive overview of the changes and their implications for investors.