Investment Rating - Industry rating: "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in pig prices by 6% to 12.21 CNY/kg, while the price of white feather chicken products has increased to 9,400 CNY/ton [3][4] - The report indicates that the pig farming sector has been profitable for three consecutive weeks, with a profit of 25.1 CNY per head [3] - The report recommends continued investment in the pig farming sector, particularly in companies like Muyuan Foods, Tiankang Biological, Wens Foodstuff, and Lihua Agricultural [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has decreased to 127.86 kg, with the proportion of heavy pigs (over 150 kg) at 5.78% [3] - The price of two-yuan sows remains stable at 1,559 CNY/head, while the price of piglets has increased by 3.3% week-on-week [3] - The report anticipates a new wave of price declines post-Chinese New Year due to expected capacity reduction in the pig industry [3] Chicken Farming - The price of white feather chicken products has risen to 9,400 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.6% [4] - Yellow feather chicken farming has been profitable for over five months, with an average price of 14.95 CNY/kg [4] - The report notes a historical high in the number of breeding stock for white feather chickens, with a total of 157.42 million sets updated in December 2025 [4] Cattle Industry - As of the end of 2025, the cattle stock in China has decreased by 8.6%, with expectations for prices to rise in the first half of 2026 [8] - The report suggests that the decline in cattle stock is a precursor to rising beef prices, with historical data supporting this trend [8] Pet Food Market - The pet market in China is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2025, reaching a total market size of 312.6 billion CNY [7] - The pet food market share has increased to 53.7%, with significant growth in core brands [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The price of piglets follows a clear historical pattern, with expectations for continued price increases followed by a decline around May/June. A significant capacity reduction cycle is anticipated in 2026, primarily occurring in the second half of the year, while stock prices are expected to start rising in the first half [5][6] - The report emphasizes that piglet prices are influenced by production patterns, with December and January being peak slaughter months, leading to increased demand for piglets. Conversely, supply remains relatively stable, which can lead to price increases when demand surges [7] - The report highlights that piglet prices do not correlate with pig price expectations and cannot be used to predict pig prices. The annual variations in piglet prices are consistent, while pig prices fluctuate yearly, indicating a lack of direct relationship [7] - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, predicting a significant capacity reduction cycle in 2026. It suggests that the first half of 2026 will resemble the first half of 2023, with losses in fat pigs but profits in piglets, leading to a smoother capacity reduction after the anticipated price drop in May/June [7] - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Biological, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, as their valuations are currently at the bottom, with potential for stock price increases as the industry faces losses and clearer capacity reduction trends [7][8] Summary by Sections Historical Price Trends - Piglet prices exhibit a clear historical trend, typically bottoming out in December/January and peaking in May/June. The fluctuations are tied to seasonal production patterns and demand cycles [5][7] Production and Supply Dynamics - The report discusses the relationship between supply and demand, noting that while supply is stable, demand spikes during certain months can lead to price increases. The cyclical nature of pig farming is highlighted, with adjustments made to align production with demand [7] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies a significant capacity reduction cycle in the pig farming industry for 2026, suggesting that investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and current low valuations, as they are likely to benefit from the anticipated market changes [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a negative net profit for the fiscal year 2025, indicating potential challenges in financial performance [1]. Financial Performance Forecast - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [1]. - The expected net profit is projected to be negative [1]. Communication with Auditors - The company has communicated with its auditing firm regarding the performance forecast, and there are no significant disagreements [1]. - The financial data in the performance forecast is based on preliminary calculations by the company's finance department and has not been audited [1]. Reasons for Performance Changes - The company has focused on enhancing operational management and efficiency, which has led to growth in sales, revenue, and net profit in its seed business [1]. - Sales in the feed and pig farming sectors have increased year-on-year; however, profitability has declined due to market conditions and fluctuations in pig prices [1]. - The company conducted impairment tests on long-term equity investments, biological assets, and goodwill, resulting in expected impairment losses of 600-700 million yuan due to low pig market prices and underperformance of invested units [1].

Group 1 - The company Dabeinong (002385.SZ) has disclosed its annual performance forecast for 2025, expecting a net loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company between 450 million to 580 million yuan [1] - The net loss after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 590 million to 720 million yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a net profit loss attributable to shareholders of 450 million to 580 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, compared to a profit of 346 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company continues to strengthen operational management, enhance operational efficiency, and effectively reduce operating costs while improving customer service capabilities [1] - The seed business is projected to see growth in sales, revenue, and net profit for the fiscal year 2025 [1] - The feed and pig farming businesses experienced a year-on-year increase in sales, but profitability declined due to market conditions and fluctuations in pig prices [1] Group 2: Asset Impairment - The company conducted impairment tests on long-term equity investments, biological assets, and goodwill at year-end, resulting in expected impairment losses of 600 million to 700 million yuan due to low pig market prices and underperformance of invested units [1] - The estimated recoverable amounts of the company's breeding pigs, long-term equity investments, and goodwill are expected to be lower than their book values [1]

Group 1 - The company Dabeinong expects a net profit loss of 450 million to 580 million yuan for 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss year-on-year [1] - The main reason for the performance change is the company's ongoing efforts to enhance operational management, improve efficiency, and reduce operational costs while boosting customer service capabilities [1] - The seed business is projected to see growth in sales, revenue, and net profit for the 2025 fiscal year, while the feed and pig farming businesses experienced sales growth but faced declining profitability due to market conditions and fluctuations in pig prices [1] Group 2 - The company conducted impairment tests on long-term equity investments, biological assets, and goodwill at year-end, leading to expected impairment losses of 600 million to 700 million yuan due to low market prices for live pigs and underperformance of invested units [1] - The anticipated recoverable amounts of the company's live pig inventory, long-term equity investments, and goodwill are expected to fall below their book values, prompting a cautious approach to asset valuation [1]

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit loss attributable to shareholders of 450 million to 580 million yuan for 2025, compared to a profit of 34.6 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net profit loss after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be 590 million to 720 million yuan, down from a profit of 22.1 million yuan in the previous year [1] - The basic earnings per share are expected to be a loss of 0.11 to 0.14 yuan per share, compared to a profit of 0.08 yuan per share in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The decline in profitability is primarily due to the impact of market conditions and pig prices on the feed and pig farming businesses [1] - The company anticipates a provision for impairment losses on related assets at the end of the year, estimated between 600 million to 700 million yuan [1] - Specific data will be confirmed based on the audit results [1]

| 项目 | | 本报告期 | | 上年同期 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股 东的净利润 | 亏损：45,000 | 万元–58,000 | 万元 | 盈利：34,577.27 | 万元 | | 扣除非经常性损益 后的净利润 | 亏损：59,000 | 万元–72,000 | 万元 | 盈利：22,059.02 | 万元 | | 基本每股收益 | 亏损：0.11 | 元/股–0.14 | 元/股 | 盈利：0.08 | 元/股 | 二、与会计师事务所沟通情况 证券代码：002385 证券简称：大北农 公告编号：2026-008 北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司 2025年年度业绩预告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 1、业绩预告期间：2025 年 1 月 1 日-2025 年 12 月 31 日 2、预计业绩情况：预计净利润为负值 2、公司将严格依照有关法律法规的规定，及时做好信息披露工作，敬请投 资者注意投资风险。 特此公告。 北京大北农科技集团股份 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The feed sector increased by 0.14% on January 30, with Aonong Biological leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66% [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Aonong Biological (603363) closed at 4.36, up 5.06%, with a trading volume of 1.36 million shares and a transaction value of 590 million yuan [1] - Dabeinong (002385) closed at 4.59, up 3.85%, with a trading volume of 5.17 million shares and a transaction value of 2.38 billion yuan [1] - Bangji Technology (603151) closed at 19.91, up 3.70%, with a trading volume of 78,100 shares and a transaction value of 15.6 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Lude Technology (688156) at 19.27, up 2.77%, and Petty Holdings (300673) at 17.73, up 2.01% [1] Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector experienced a net outflow of 68.79 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 15.47 million yuan [2] - Conversely, speculative funds had a net inflow of 84.26 million yuan [2] Group 4: Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Aonong Biological had a net inflow of 60.95 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 36.64 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Zhongchong Co. (002891) saw a net inflow of 6.17 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 5.62 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Hada Group (002311) had a net inflow of 3.80 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 24.74 million yuan [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.31%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.12% as of January 30 [2] - The livestock farming sector, particularly related to genetically modified organisms, agriculture, and corn, showed positive performance with significant gains in related ETFs [2] Group 2: Pig Farming Industry Insights - Recent data indicates a 13.79% increase in pig prices over the last 60 days, reaching 13.12 yuan per kilogram on January 29, supported by rising meat demand ahead of the Spring Festival [2] - Despite a recent price increase, the overall supply-demand situation is weak, with expectations of price declines post-holiday due to supply pressures and reduced output [3] - The average weight of pigs sold this week was 128.89 kg, showing a slight recovery, but the overall supply is expected to decrease in January [3] - The industry is experiencing losses, with prices falling below the cost line, leading to a reduction in production capacity and a stabilization of market conditions at the bottom [3] Group 3: Poultry Industry Insights - The white feather chicken market is experiencing price support due to weak supply elasticity caused by overseas epidemics halting domestic breeding [4] - The average selling price of white feather meat chickens in December was 7.44 yuan per kilogram, with a slight increase from the previous month, while breeding losses were reported at 0.26 yuan per bird [4] - The total stock of white feather breeding chickens reached 2.3377 million sets by the end of December, reflecting an 11.3% increase, indicating a potential for future price stability [4]