Group 1 - The core point of the article is that 佛燃能源 (Furnace Energy) has reported that as of January 30, 2026, the number of its shareholders exceeds 17,000 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utilities and gas distribution sectors [5] Core Insights - The report predicts a moderate growth in China's manufacturing natural gas demand from 2026 to 2028, with an average annual growth rate of 2%. The demand will be characterized by significant structural differentiation, with emerging manufacturing sectors and automotive manufacturing showing the highest growth rates, while traditional high-energy-consuming industries will see a decline [10][20] - The transformation of the city gas industry from "resource distribution" to "comprehensive energy services" is highlighted as a key opportunity, driven by the optimization of customer structure, expansion of value-added services, and improved pricing efficiency [24][25] Summary by Sections Demand Side: Structural Differentiation as the Core Theme - In 2022, the manufacturing sector's natural gas consumption was 155 billion cubic meters, accounting for 8.56% of total energy consumption. The demand is expected to experience a "slow climb - deceleration - stabilization" process from 2023 to 2025, with traditional industries facing pressure while emerging industries continue to grow [2][10] - The report forecasts that from 2026 to 2028, the main sources of growth will be emerging manufacturing sectors such as integrated circuits and biomedicine, with an average annual growth rate of 4.8%, and automotive manufacturing, particularly in new energy vehicles, with a growth rate of 7.8% [21][22] City Gas Industry: Three Opportunities Against Three Challenges - The recovery of manufacturing natural gas demand will be a critical juncture for the city gas industry to shift from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement." This shift is expected to alleviate short-term profit pressures and support business structure reconstruction and core competitiveness enhancement [3][11] - Opportunities include an increase in high-value customers from emerging manufacturing sectors, which are expected to improve gas sales gross margins by 2-3 percentage points by 2028. Challenges include the loss of traditional customer demand, competition from alternative energy sources, and intensified regional competition [3][11] Differentiation from Market Views - The report emphasizes the quantification of demand differentiation trends across various sectors, highlighting the dual drivers of "policy support + industrial expansion" rather than a singular focus on environmental pressures. It also clarifies the boundaries and pace of alternative energy impacts on natural gas demand, indicating that the substitution effect from emerging industries is relatively weak [4][14] Investment Focus - The investment focus is on capturing structural dividends and realizing transformation capabilities, with a particular emphasis on three types of companies: national city gas leaders (Kunlun Energy, China Gas), regional leaders (Shenzhen Gas, Fuan Energy), and energy service platform companies (Xinao Gas) [12][24]

Market Overview - The gas sector experienced a decline of 1.18% on January 27, with Kaitan Gas leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4139.9, up 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14329.91, up 0.09% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the gas sector included: - Shengtong Energy (001331) with a closing price of 57.14, up 7.69% and a trading volume of 99,900 shares, totaling 554 million yuan [1] - Shengda Forestry (002259) closed at 5.26, up 3.95% with a trading volume of 824,100 shares, totaling 415 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - Kaitan Gas (920010) closed at 12.34, down 5.59% with a trading volume of 112,400 shares, totaling 140 million yuan [2] - Guo Xin Energy (600617) closed at 3.20, down 3.90% with a trading volume of 404,300 shares, totaling 130 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The gas sector saw a net outflow of 357 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 347 million yuan [2] - The table of capital flow indicates that: - New Natural Gas (603393) had a main fund net inflow of 48.61 million yuan, while retail investors had a net outflow of 32.41 million yuan [3] - ST Jinwan (000669) experienced a main fund net inflow of 4.87 million yuan, with retail investors showing a net outflow of 1.72 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The transition towards cleaner electricity generation is accelerating, highlighting the value of sector dividends [1] - The overall electricity consumption in 2025 is projected to grow by 5.0%, with significant contributions from the tertiary sector and urban-rural residents [3][15] - The generation capacity is shifting towards wind and solar, with these sources contributing 90.1% of the total generation increase in 2025 [3][15] - The annual long-term electricity prices are stabilizing, with expectations for improved pricing dynamics in 2026 [3][15] - Investment opportunities are emerging in thermal and hydropower sectors, emphasizing the defensive attributes of the sector [3][15] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In 2025, total electricity consumption is expected to reach 10.37 trillion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [15] - The contribution from the tertiary sector and urban-rural residents is projected to rise, accounting for 50.2% of the total increase in electricity consumption by 2025 [3][15] - The growth rates for different sectors in 2025 are as follows: primary industry +9.9%, secondary industry +3.7%, tertiary industry +8.2%, and urban-rural residents +6.3% [15][27] Generation Capacity - The total installed capacity of wind and solar is expected to increase by 360 GW, while the share of thermal power is projected to decrease to 40% [3][15] - In 2025, the generation increase from wind and solar is expected to dominate, with a significant contribution to the overall power generation structure [3][15] Electricity Pricing - The report indicates a downward trend in electricity prices in several provinces, with expectations for stabilization as the market matures [3][15] - The market share of electricity traded through market mechanisms is projected to reach 64.0% in 2025, with a notable increase in green electricity transactions [3][15] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several companies with strong dividend yields and market management strategies, including Huaneng International Power and Huadian International Power [3][15] - There are also opportunities in hydropower, particularly for companies like Yangtze Power and Guigang Power, which are expected to see profit growth in the coming quarters [3][15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [7]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a 17% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, with a total revenue forecast of 33.75 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 6.85% [7]. - The company is focusing on expanding its green methanol production capacity, which is expected to enhance both valuation and earnings flexibility [7]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in cash flow, with a net operating cash flow of 1.955 billion RMB for 2025, representing an 11.44% increase year-on-year [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 25.54 billion RMB - 2024A: 31.59 billion RMB - 2025E: 33.75 billion RMB (growth rate of 6.9%) - 2026E: 36.51 billion RMB (growth rate of 8.2%) - 2027E: 38.16 billion RMB (growth rate of 4.5%) [2] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 840 million RMB - 2024A: 850 million RMB - 2025E: 1 billion RMB (growth rate of 17.3%) - 2026E: 1.09 billion RMB (growth rate of 8.9%) - 2027E: 1.15 billion RMB (growth rate of 5.5%) [2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.86 RMB - 2024A: 0.66 RMB - 2025E: 0.77 RMB - 2026E: 0.84 RMB - 2027E: 0.89 RMB [2] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025E is projected at 17.6, with a target price of 15.42 RMB per share based on a 20x P/E valuation [7].

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities report indicates that Fuan Energy's diversified business development has exceeded expectations, ensuring shareholder returns [1] Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.001 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.3% [1] - In Q4 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 510 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, surpassing previous expectations [1] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 1.001 billion, 1.070 billion, and 1.117 billion yuan respectively, from the original estimates of 872 million, 922 million, and 976 million yuan [1] Dividend Policy - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% for the years 2025-2027, ensuring returns for shareholders [1] Business Strategy - The company adheres to an "Energy + Technology + Supply Chain" strategy, focusing on urban natural gas operations while actively advancing in petrochemical products, hydrogen energy, thermal energy, photovoltaics, and energy storage [1] - Continuous efforts are being made in technology research and development, equipment manufacturing, supply chain operations, and other extended businesses [1] Market Outlook - The natural gas business is expected to develop steadily, while new energy, supply chain, extended, and technology R&D and manufacturing businesses are flourishing [1] - The rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1]

Group 1 - The oil sector is experiencing fluctuations, with funds entering the market at lower prices, as evidenced by the net subscription of 23 million units for the Penghua Oil ETF (159697) [1] - A cold wave in the U.S. has led to a significant increase in natural gas prices [1] - From 2022 to 2025, 67% (195 cities) of cities at the prefecture level and above in China have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an increase of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter [1] Group 2 - The price difference for leading city gas companies in 2024 is projected to be between 0.53 and 0.54 yuan per cubic meter, with a reasonable distribution fee expected to exceed 0.6 yuan per cubic meter, indicating a potential 10% recovery space [1] - Cost optimization for city gas companies is expected due to relaxed supply conditions, and the pricing mechanism is being refined while demand is anticipated to increase [1] - There is a focus on companies with quality long-term contracts, flexible scheduling, and long-term cost advantages, as well as the importance of energy self-sufficiency due to increased uncertainty in U.S. gas imports [1] Group 3 - As of January 23, 2026, the National Oil and Gas Index (399439) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Intercontinental Oil and Gas leading at a 3.29% increase, followed by Fuan Energy at 2.73% and Hupoo Co. at 1.96% [1] - The latest price for the Penghua Oil ETF (159697) is 1.29 yuan, which closely tracks the National Oil and Gas Index [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Oil and Gas Index (399439) as of December 31, 2025, include major companies such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil, collectively accounting for 67.11% of the index [2]

Group 1 - The company has approved the issuance of debt financing instruments up to RMB 5 billion [1] - The registration for the medium-term notes has been confirmed with a registered amount of RMB 5 billion, valid for two years [2] - The company has successfully completed the issuance of the first phase of medium-term notes for 2026, amounting to RMB 1.5 billion, with funds received on January 22, 2026 [2] Group 2 - The company is not a subject of credit default as of the date of the announcement [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2025 exceeded expectations, driven by diversified business development and a commitment to shareholder returns [7] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.3% [7] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% from 2025 to 2027, ensuring shareholder returns [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 33.754 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.85% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.3% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.77 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 17.59 [1] - The company reported a significant increase in natural gas supply in Q4 2025, with a volume of 1.407 billion cubic meters, up 38.8% year-on-year [7] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for 2025 is projected to be 1.955 billion yuan, an increase of 11.44% year-on-year [7] Business Strategy Summary - The company is pursuing a strategy of "Energy + Technology + Supply Chain," focusing on the development of natural gas, petrochemical products, hydrogen energy, thermal energy, photovoltaics, and energy storage [7] - The company is actively expanding its energy chemical business, which has shown a year-on-year growth of 20.97% [7]

佛燃能源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2024年3月25日召开的 第六届董事会第五次会议、2024年4月16日召开的2023年年度股东大会，审议通 过了《关于申请发行债务融资工具的议案》，同意公司向中国银行间市场交易商 协会（以下简称"交易商协会"）申请注册发行不超过人民币50亿元（含50亿元） 的债务融资工具。具体内容详见公司分别于2024年3月27日、2024年4月17日刊登 在《中国证券报》《证券时报》《证券日报》《上海证券报》和巨潮资讯网 （http://www.cninfo.com.cn）上的《第六届董事会第五次会议决议公告》（公 告编号：2024-014）、《关于申请发行债务融资工具的公告》（公告编号：2024-020） 和《2023年年度股东大会决议公告》（公告编号：2024-031）。 证券代码：002911 证券简称：佛燃能源 公告编号：2026-008 佛燃能源集团股份有限公司 2026 年度第一期中期票据发行情况公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 | 主承销商 | 兴业银行股份有限公司 | | --- | --- | ...