Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Mango Excellent Media with a target price of 31.65 CNY per share [1][8] Core Views - Mango Excellent Media is a state-owned long-video platform with strong content reserves, particularly in variety shows, and is expected to see a performance inflection point soon [1] - The company's variety show production capabilities are well-established, while its drama segment is still catching up but shows potential for breakthroughs [1][6] - The company is actively expanding its international presence through the "Mango Overseas 2024 Action Plan" and the "Mango TV International App Doubling Plan" [1] Content Segment - Variety shows remain the company's core strength, with a proven track record of producing hit series such as "Mystery Variety," "Singing and Dancing Brothers and Sisters," and "Family Variety" [1][6] - The drama segment has seen increased investment since 2020, with notable improvements in viewership starting in 2023, and several hit dramas such as "Meet Yourself" and "You Are My Fireworks" have emerged [1][6] - The company has a rich pipeline of dramas for 2024 and 2025, including "Good Luck Family," "National Beauty," and "Five Blessings," which are expected to drive further growth [1][6] Monetization Segment - Membership revenue is expected to grow healthily, driven by both B2B and B2C channels, with ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) already showing significant improvement [1][6] - Advertising revenue is expected to recover in 2025, supported by cyclical recovery and continuous content innovation [1][6] - The operator business, which has been under pressure due to policy changes, is expected to return to healthy growth starting in 2025 [1][6] Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 to be 1.722 billion CNY, 1.973 billion CNY, and 2.146 billion CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of -52%, +15%, and +9% [1][8] - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 14.517 billion CNY, 16.206 billion CNY, and 17.724 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.8%, +11.6%, and +9.4%, respectively [2] International Expansion - Mango TV International App's overseas downloads have increased from 130 million in 2023 to 210 million in 2024, with a 5.3% increase in downloads from Europe and the Americas [1] Business Structure - The company's revenue is primarily driven by Mango TV (71% in H1 2024), followed by e-commerce (19%) and content production (9%) [1][20] - Mango TV's core business has the highest gross margin among the company's segments [1][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 31.65 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 27.70 CNY [4][2]. Core Insights - The company has a rich reserve of content for 2025, including over 100 dramas and variety shows, which is expected to drive a positive product cycle [2]. - The operational turning point is anticipated soon, with the company showing growth in content viewership and advertising recovery expected in the coming year [2]. - The international expansion plan is underway, with significant growth in downloads of the Mango TV international app, indicating potential new revenue streams [2]. - The financial outlook includes projected net profits of 1.72 billion CNY, 1.97 billion CNY, and 2.15 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a recovery trajectory after a significant decline in 2024 [3][2]. Summary by Sections Content Strategy - The company is enhancing its content team and introducing innovative products such as "story-based advertising" and "IP derivative shows" to strengthen content dissemination [2]. - The variety show lineup includes over 100 new shows, maintaining a structure of 60% returning shows and 40% new formats, with notable titles like "Singer 2025" and "Riding the Wind 2025" [2]. - The drama reserve is also robust, featuring over 100 titles across various genres, with collaborations from renowned writers and producers [2]. Market Position - As of the first three quarters of 2024, the company holds 9 out of the top 20 spots in both TV and online variety shows, showcasing its strong market presence [2]. - The company has experienced a 24% increase in viewership, contrasting with a 15% decline in the overall long video platform segment [2]. Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 14.52 billion CNY in 2024, with a slight decline from 2023, followed by a recovery to 16.21 billion CNY in 2025 [3]. - The net profit is expected to rebound from a significant drop in 2024, with a forecasted growth of 14.6% in 2025 and 8.7% in 2026 [3]. Valuation - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 30x for 2025, with a market capitalization of 592 billion CNY, reflecting its status as a unique state-owned long video platform [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [5][8]. Core Views - The company is backed by Hunan Broadcasting and has over 30 years of content accumulation, with a sustained advantage in variety shows and a growing presence in drama series. As of September this year, Mango TV's monthly active users (MAU) exceeded 250 million, ranking third in the industry with a growth trend better than peers [5][6]. - Increased investment in content has shown results, with both variety shows and drama series market shares improving. From the second half of 2023, the company increased its content investment, with the value of new film and television copyrights increasing by 39% year-on-year in the second half of 2023 and by 8% in the first half of 2024 [6][8]. - The company is entering a content release period in Q4 2024 and 2025, with a rich lineup of shows and dramas expected to perform well. The variety shows and dramas scheduled for release include high-profile titles and a diverse range of genres, with over 100 variety shows and dramas planned [7][8]. - A short-term operational turning point is anticipated, with pressures from advertising and operator businesses expected to ease. If consumer recovery occurs, the advertising business is likely to rebound significantly [8]. - Globalization is expected to open up membership revenue and content distribution opportunities, with Mango TV's international app covering 195 countries and regions, accumulating 229 million downloads [8]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2023 is projected at 14,628 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3,556 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 90.7% [9][14]. - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 is 1,725 million yuan, 1,965 million yuan, and 2,259 million yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 31x, 28x, and 24x [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" as of November 7, 2024 [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.278 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.444 billion yuan, down 18.96% year-on-year [4]. - The company has maintained stable operating income and operating profit, with a strong growth in membership revenue, exceeding 70 million effective members for Mango TV [4]. - The content performance remains strong, with significant increases in viewership for variety shows and a notable contribution from series to membership revenue [4]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 1.835 billion, 2.155 billion, and 2.384 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.5, 24.3, and 22.0 [4]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a gross profit margin of 33.0% and a return on equity (ROE) of 16.5% [3]. - The projected operating revenue for 2024 is 15.101 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 48.4% in 2024, with a recovery projected in subsequent years [3]. - The company’s total assets are reported at 32.623 billion yuan, with net assets of 22.569 billion yuan [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][7][8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.278 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.444 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 0.85% and 18.96% respectively. The decline is attributed to the impact of industry regulations and the expiration of tax exemption policies [1][5] - The effective membership count for Mango TV exceeded 70 million, with membership revenue for the first half of the year reaching 2.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%. This growth is driven by high-quality content and an innovative membership benefits system [1][5] - The content ecosystem continues to improve, with 31 seasonal variety shows launched in Q3, positioning the company among the top in the long video platform sector. Upcoming key programs are expected to further enhance content performance in Q4 [1][6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 3.318 billion yuan and a net profit of 380 million yuan, with year-on-year declines of 7.14% and 27.41% respectively. The decline in revenue and profit is primarily due to the impact of regulatory changes in the television industry and the expiration of tax benefits [1][5] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was -325 million yuan, a significant decrease from 1.091 billion yuan in the same period last year, mainly due to increased investment in content [1][5] Membership and Advertising Business - The membership business showed strong performance, with Mango TV's effective membership exceeding 70 million. The membership revenue for the first half of the year was 2.486 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year, supported by popular shows and an enhanced membership benefits system [1][5] - The advertising revenue for the first half was 1.721 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year, with expectations of continued trends into Q3. The company aims to recover advertising revenue through innovative marketing strategies and optimized AI algorithms [1][5] Content Development - The company launched 31 seasonal variety shows in Q3, ranking among the top in the long video platform sector. Notable shows include "Hello, Saturday 2024" and "Chinese Restaurant 8," which are expected to drive content performance in Q4 [1][6][7] - In terms of drama series, popular titles such as "You Are More Beautiful Than Starlight" and "Private Romance" were released in Q3, with more anticipated releases expected to maintain viewer engagement [1][6][7] Investment Outlook - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with expected net profits of 1.96 billion yuan, 2.19 billion yuan, and 2.44 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 1.05 yuan, 1.17 yuan, and 1.30 yuan [1][7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 32.56 CNY based on a 37x PE for 2024 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.317 billion CNY in Q3 2024, showing a year-over-year decline of 1.5% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 8.73%. The gross margin for Q3 was 29.8%, an increase of 7.3 percentage points year-over-year and 0.7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 379 million CNY, down 27.41% year-over-year and 35.76% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to an increase in income tax expenses [1][2]. - In the first half of 2024, new media operations generated 4.96 billion CNY in revenue, a decrease of 3.6% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 36.1%, down 6.6 percentage points year-over-year. Membership revenue for the same period was 2.486 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 27% year-over-year. The effective membership count exceeded 70 million as of October 11, 2024 [1][2]. - The company has seen a significant increase in active users, with 268 million monthly active users in August 2024, ranking among the top three in the long video industry. The contribution of series to membership revenue is also increasing, with effective plays of member content rising to 79%, a 16% year-over-year increase [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 13.704 billion CNY, with a projected revenue of 14.456 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.652 billion CNY in 2024, down 53.5% from 2023 [3][8]. - The gross margin is projected to decrease to 27.0% in 2024, while the net margin is expected to be 11.4%. The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 7.4% in 2024 [3][8].

芒果超媒（300413. SZ） 24年3季报点评:所得税影响短期业绩表现,会员业务量质双升 核心观点 营收及利润下滑,内容投入持续加大。1)24年前3季度公司实现营业收入 102. 78 亿元、归母净利润 14. 44 亿元，同比分别下滑 0. 85%、−18. 96%，对 应全面摊薄 EPS 0.77元;2)Q3 单季度公司实现营收 33.18 亿元、归母净利 润 3.80 亿元,同比分别下滑 7.14%、27.41%;营收及业绩下滑主要在于一方 面运营商业务受电视行业治理影响下滑,另一方面所得税免税政策到期(前 三季度所得税费用为 2. 77 亿元，上年同期为-174 万元）; 3）前三季度公司 经营活动产生的净现金流为-3. 25 亿元(上年同期为 10. 91 亿元),主要系 加大头部内容储备投入，导致经营性现金流净额出现下降波动。 会员业务表现良好,关注广告业务向山上修复可能。1）芒果 TV 有效会员数 超过 7000 万、稳居国内长视频行业前列; 营收表现上，上半年会员业务收 入 24. 86 亿元、同比增长 27%，得益于优质内容和会员权益体系：以《歌手 2024》《乘风 2024》为代表的爆 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 芒果超媒（300413）2024 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 短期基本面触底，剧综储备丰富，出海进行中，静 待拐点到来 事项： ❖ 公司 24Q3 实现收入 33.2 亿（YOY-7%）；实现归母净利润 3.8 亿（YOY-27%）， 扣非归母净利润 3.1 亿（YOY-29%）。剔除所得税影响后预计归母净利润 YOY10%，扣非归母净利润 YOY-9.8%。 评论： ❖ 收入端：预计会员业务保持增长，广告略有压力，运营商业务高基数下继续承 压。我们预计 24Q3 会员收入保持健康增长，量价皆稳步提升，据中国证券报， 根据公开报道显示此前有效会员规模已超 7000 万；受弱宏观+产品排期影响 预计广告收入同比去年小幅下降；运营商业务预计受政策影响+去年高基数短 期继续承压。 ❖ 利润端：预计受营收结构调整，利润率有所下滑。24Q3 毛利率 29.8%，YOY7.65pct，推测主要系毛利率运营商业务占比下滑+内容成本有所提高；费率继 续优化，销售费用率 13.8%同比-5.83pct，管理和研发费用率分别为 1.78%和 1.15%，分别同比-2.46pct/-0.69pct。综合来看 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 15.36 billion, 16.90 billion, and 18.42 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 10%, and 9% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.89 billion, 2.22 billion, and 2.49 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -47%, 17%, and 12% respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.01, 1.18, and 1.33 yuan [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 3.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. For the first three quarters of 2024, the total operating revenue was 10.28 billion yuan, down 0.85% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 1.44 billion yuan, a decline of 18.96% year-on-year [6][7]. Membership Growth and Content Strategy - The company has achieved a record high in membership, with over 70 million effective members as of October. The company has introduced exclusive products to enhance the average revenue per user (ARPU). In Q3, the company launched 31 new seasonal variety shows, leading the four major long video platforms in terms of new content. The effective view count for variety shows reached 2.5 billion, a 22% increase year-on-year [6][7]. Content Pipeline - The company has a rich reserve of quality content, with several new shows set to launch in Q4 2024 and 2025. Notable upcoming shows include "Goodbye Lover 4" and various dramas, with over 80 dramas currently in reserve. The company anticipates that these new releases will gradually boost viewership and membership growth [6][7]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 15.36 billion, 16.90 billion, and 18.42 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.89 billion, 2.22 billion, and 2.49 billion yuan. The EPS is projected to increase from 1.01 yuan in 2024 to 1.33 yuan in 2026 [2][6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue of 10.278 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.444 billion yuan, down 18.96% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in corporate income tax policies [4][7] - The effective membership of the company has surpassed 70 million, with significant contributions from popular shows like "Singer 2024". The international app downloads increased from 130 million to 210 million, with a target of 260 million for the year [5][6] - The company has a rich reserve of key variety shows and dramas, which are expected to drive future performance growth. Upcoming shows include "Women's Reasoning Society 2" and "Time Music Conference 4" [6] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.278 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.85% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.444 billion yuan, down 18.96% year-on-year. The third quarter revenue was 3.318 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.14% year-on-year, with a net profit of 380 million yuan, down 27.41% year-on-year [4][7] - The company expects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1.00, 1.16, and 1.37 yuan per share, respectively. The estimated reasonable value range for 2025 is 34.80 to 40.60 yuan per share [7][11] Revenue Forecast - The company's revenue forecast for 2024 is 14.777 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1.0%. The revenue from internet video is expected to be 8.836 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.60% [9][11] - The advertising revenue is projected to decline to 3.426 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.00% year-on-year, while membership revenue is expected to grow to 5.410 billion yuan, an increase of 25.37% [9][11] Market Comparison - The company is compared with peers such as iQIYI and Netflix, with a projected P/E ratio for 2025 of 30-35 times, indicating a competitive valuation in the market [10][11]