行业深度研究 | 通信 IDC 需求测算逻辑、估值探讨与标的梳理 IDC 行业报告（二） 引言：上篇报告中，我们讨论了 IDC 是一门什么样的生意、AIDC 与 IDC 的 差异、如何理解 IDC 需求、如何把握供给端发展演变，以及 IDC 将何去何 从。本篇报告是我们 IDC 行业报告的第二篇，聚焦市场关注点，重点讨论量 化视角下的 IDC 需求和 IDC 估值两个问题，并梳理相关标的。 如何多视角测算 IDC 需求？我们提供四种 IDC 需求测算逻辑：1）资本开支 视角：从 BBAT 资本开支计划推算，内含两个测算逻辑思路，资本开支/单台 服务器价格或单 W 投资金额，再推导至 AI 服务器需求量及其对应的 IDC 能 耗。2）应用的 Token 调用量视角：从 token 需求到 FLOPS 需求到 GW 需 求。3）IDC 厂商收入视角：预测 IDC 主要上市公司未来 IDC 收入，结合其 市场份额，反推 IDC 市场规模。4）服务器出货量视角：跟踪 AI 服务器季度 出货量，从而推算 IDC 上架需求。四种思路各有优劣，其共通之处在于把握 IDC 核心设备 AI 服务器，包括其价格、功率、性能指标。 ...

订单规模方面，字节跳动引领大基地需求增长 2024年中国智算中心在建项目快速增长，全国不同建设阶段的项目超500个。第三方IDC下单规模约为 2.5GW，其中字节跳动需求约为2GW。智算发展推动数据中心向高密度、高能效方向迈进，全球平均 机架功率不断提升，国内乌兰察布和海外东南亚成为数据中心发展的热点区域。乌兰察布自2013年起大 力发展大数据产业，签约机架规模超110万，算力运营规模可观;东南亚地区数据中心市场爆发式增 长，"SJB走廊"有望成为全球最大的数据中心市场之一，柔佛州凭借自身优势吸引众多国际巨头布局。 从市场环境来看，供需修复、价格企稳，随着需求持续增长，涨价可期 国内数据中心市场经过前期调整，供需结构逐渐优化，价格企稳。海外数据中心已出现涨价趋势，随着 AI对智算数据中心需求的增加，全球数据中心市场的供需将进一步平衡，租金价格有望回升。 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦风险，政府及行业投资进度低于预期，行业需求低于预期。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，若参考字节、阿里巴巴-W(09988)、腾讯控股(00700)的资本 开支规划及对AI投入的景气度判断，预计未来三年国内的头部互联网厂商资本开支 ...

7月15日，AI算力板块强势上涨，多只被业界视为"AI算力基"的主动权益类产品净值大幅飙升，涨幅甚 至超过了相关ETF产品。其中，基金经理周建胜管理的诺德新生活A当日净值增长率高达9.42%，居全 市场第一；金梓才管理的财通集成电路产业A等6只产品净值增长率都在8%以上。 业内人士认为，光通信、PCB领域在过去两年的AI大发展中实现了高速增长。随着全球大客户需求持续 扩张以及AI产业长期向好，中国厂商有望持续分享全球AI发展红利。目前AI算力领域的价值正被市场 重估，需要关注具备全球竞争力的中国企业。 主动权益基金领涨 7月15日至7月16日，华夏上证科创板50ETF成交额位居股票型ETF首位，连续两个交易日成交额均突破 35亿元。嘉实上证科创板芯片ETF、国联安中证全指半导体ETF最近两个交易日成交额也都在10亿元以 上，位居股票型ETF前列。 从资金流向来看，以华夏上证科创板50ETF为代表的宽基产品强势"吸金"。7月15日，该ETF净流入近10 亿元，位居ETF首位。7月以来，该ETF累计净流入额已接近50亿元，同样在ETF市场排名第一，目前该 ETF规模已回到800亿元以上。此外，嘉实上证科创板芯片E ...

注册地位于广州市南沙区的广东奥飞数据科技股份有限公司（证券简称：奥飞数据；股票代 码:300738）7月14日发布公告显示，其参与投资设立的产业投资基金"天泽奥融"已于当日在中国证券投 资基金业协会完成备案。公告显示，奥飞数据认缴出资2亿元，将持有天泽奥融40%份额，天泽奥融总 出资额达5亿元。 | 序号 | 合伙人名称 | 合伙人性质 | 认缴出资额(万元 | 认缴比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 人民币) | | | 1 | 万联天泽资本投资有限公司 | 普通合伙人 | 4.900 | 9.80% | | 2 | 广州复朴道和投资管理有限公司 | 普通合伙人 | 100 | 0.20% | | 3 | 广州上市公司高质量发展基金合 | 有限合伙人 | 25.000 | 50.00% | | | 伙企业(有限合伙) | | | | | 4 | 广东奥飞数据科技股份有限公司 | 有限合伙人 | 20,000 | 40 00% | | | 合计 | | 50.000 | 100.00% | 公告显示，奥飞数据与万联天泽资本投资有限公司、广州复朴道和投资管理 ...

Group 1 - AI computing hardware sector experienced a significant rally, with the ChiNext AI index rising over 6% and approaching historical highs [1][4] - Notable stocks included Xinyi Technology, which hit a 20% limit up, and Zhongji Xuchuang, which surged over 16%, leading the market [1][2] - The ChiNext AI ETF, Huabao (159363), saw a price increase of 7.07%, reaching a historical high in trading volume of 389 million yuan [2][4] Group 2 - The ChiNext AI index has shown a cumulative increase of nearly 45% since the low in April, outperforming other AI indices [4][5] - Xinyi Technology projected a net profit of 3.7 billion to 4.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 327.68% to 385.47% [6][7] - Nvidia confirmed the resumption of H20 GPU sales in China, which is expected to benefit domestic optical module leaders and increase demand for high-speed optical products [7][8]

Group 1 - The A-share market's AI sector experienced a significant afternoon rally, indicating strong investor interest in AI-related stocks [1] - Guangyun Technology saw a rise of over 9%, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the company [1] - Hand Information and Haitai Ruisheng both increased by more than 8%, showcasing their strong performance in the AI sector [1] - Aofei Data rose by over 7%, contributing to the overall upward trend in the AI industry [1] - Other companies such as Kingsoft Office and New Zhisoft also showed gains, indicating a broader positive movement in the sector [1]

广东奥飞数据科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"奥飞数据"）认缴出资 人民币20,000万元，与万联天泽资本投资有限公司、广州复朴道和投资管理有限 公司、广州上市公司高质量发展基金合伙企业（有限合伙）共同投资设立广州天 泽奥融股权投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称"天泽奥融"）。本次交易 完成后，奥飞数据将持有天泽奥融40%的份额比例，具体内容详见公司在巨潮资 讯网上披露的《关于参与投资设立产业投资基金的公告》（公告编号：2025-022）。 | 证券代码：300738 | 证券简称：奥飞数据 | 公告编号：2025-067 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：123131 | 债券简称：奥飞转债 | | 广东奥飞数据科技股份有限公司 关于参与投资设立产业投资基金的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 一、参与投资设立产业投资基金的概述 备案日期：2025年7月14日 公司将持续关注天泽奥融的后续进展情况，按照有关法律法规的规定和要求， 及时履行信息披露义务。 三、备查文件 1、《证券公司私募投资基金备案证明》 ...

Market Performance - Kuaishou concept stocks declined by 1.60%, ranking among the top losers in the concept sector, with stocks like Yuanlong Yatu and Huamei Holdings hitting the daily limit down [1] - The concept sector saw a net outflow of 930 million yuan, with 34 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 9 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 50 million yuan [2] Key Stocks - The largest net outflow was from Huamei Holdings, with a net outflow of 206 million yuan, followed by Jiuqi Software and Zhongwen Online with net outflows of 140 million yuan and 131 million yuan respectively [2] - Stocks with significant gains included Meiri Interactive, which rose by 4.24%, and Aofei Data, which increased by 3.37% [4] Trading Activity - The trading volume for Huamei Holdings was 27.69%, with a price drop of 10.00%, indicating high volatility [3] - Other notable stocks with significant trading activity included Jiuqi Software and Zhongwen Online, with trading volumes of 21.40% and 7.61% respectively [3]

Summary of Aofei Data Conference Call Company Overview - Aofei Data is a private enterprise headquartered in Guangzhou, initially starting with broadband business and gradually entering the IDC sector through cooperation with telecom operators [3][4] Industry Context - The IDC industry is experiencing a downturn from 2021 to 2024, during which Aofei Data has adopted a counter-cyclical expansion strategy through horizontal mergers and acquisitions to increase its data center resource reserves [2][3] Key Developments - Aofei Data currently has a total capacity of approximately 650 to 700 megawatts (MW), with an expected delivery of about 190 MW by the end of 2024 and an anticipated delivery of 150 MW in 2025 [2][3] - In Q1 2025, Aofei Data has already solidified a 50 MW project, with an expected delivery of 110 to 120 MW in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong completion rate [4] - In April 2025, the company raised 1.75 billion yuan (approximately 0.25 billion USD) through a private placement to invest in five buildings in Gu'an, showcasing better-than-expected delivery progress [2][4] Strategic Projects - Aofei Data is developing a 150 MW park project in Zhangjiakou Huailai, which is expected to expand its supply chain for major internet companies [2][4] Market Valuation - The current market values Aofei Data at an EV/EBITDA ratio of approximately 25 times, which is higher than other leading IDC companies, reflecting market recognition of its aggressive expansion strategy [5] - Even during the industry's downturn from 2021 to 2024, Aofei Data's minimum EV/EBITDA valuation reached 15 times, which is higher than competitors such as Data Harbor and Guanghuan Technology [6]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of large models and generative AI technologies is creating unprecedented growth opportunities in the computing infrastructure market, prompting the company to raise funds for a new cloud computing and AI industrial park project [1][3]. Group 1: Company Expansion Plans - The company plans to raise up to 1.75 billion yuan through a private placement to build a new generation cloud computing and AI industrial park in Langfang, Hebei [1][4]. - The project will include the construction of five data center buildings, with a total of 8,925 cabinets to be deployed, and is expected to take 18 months to complete [4][5]. - As of the end of 2024, the company has expanded its operations to over 30 cities in China, with more than 43,000 cabinets in operation and total assets increasing from 1.63 billion yuan in 2019 to 12.84 billion yuan by Q1 2025 [3]. Group 2: Market Demand and Industry Trends - The global data volume is projected to reach 291 zettabytes by 2027, nearly doubling from 2023, driven by the proliferation of technologies such as 5G, IoT, and autonomous driving [3]. - Major cloud service providers are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with Alibaba planning to invest at least 380 billion yuan in cloud computing and AI infrastructure over the next three years, creating a favorable market environment for data center service providers [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - The company has faced a dilemma of increasing revenue without corresponding profit growth, with revenues of 1.335 billion yuan and 2.165 billion yuan in 2023 and 2024, respectively, while net profits declined from 166 million yuan in 2022 to 141 million yuan and 124 million yuan in the following years [6]. - The company's gross profit margin has decreased from 29.51% in 2020 to 26.40% in 2024, attributed to a higher proportion of low-margin businesses such as computing equipment sales and value-added services [8]. - The asset-liability ratio has risen from 55.77% in 2020 to 71.12% by the end of 2024, indicating increasing financial risk due to a heavy asset operation model [8]. Group 4: Investment Returns and Risk Management - The company anticipates an internal rate of return of 11.49% and a payback period of 7.4 years for the new investment project, which poses challenges for cash flow management [9]. - To mitigate risks, the company is engaging potential customers early in the project investment process and aims to expedite the commissioning of new data centers to enhance cabinet utilization [9].