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爱美客2024年三季报点评:业绩短期承压,期待新品获批放量
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][5]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit are under short-term pressure due to weaker-than-expected terminal demand recovery in Q3, but the pipeline is progressing, indicating potential for long-term growth [3][4]. - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 2.376 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.46%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.586 billion yuan, up 11.79% year-on-year [4]. - Q3 revenue was 719 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.10%, and net profit was 465 million yuan, up 2.13% year-on-year, with profit growth below expectations due to the traditional off-season for medical aesthetics and insufficient recovery in terminal demand [4]. - The EPS forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised down to 6.79/8.22/9.74 yuan from the previous 8.03/10.59/13.51 yuan, with a target price adjusted to 271.26 yuan from 304.72 yuan, based on a PE of 33X for 2025 [4]. Financial Performance - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 94.80%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the Q3 gross margin was 94.55%, down 0.52 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The net profit margin improved to 66.73%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, supported by optimized expense ratios [4]. - The company has a robust pipeline with 10 Class III medical device product registration certificates and 4 Class II medical device certificates as of H1 2024, with several products in various stages of research and registration [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 211.02 yuan, with a target price of 271.26 yuan, indicating potential upside [5]. - The company's market capitalization is 63.82 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 302 million shares [6].
爱美客:2024年三季报点评:三季度业绩增长承压,持续关注后续管线落地
Caixin Securities· 2024-10-31 05:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][9] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.376 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.46%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.586 billion yuan, up 11.79% year-on-year [4][6] - The company is facing pressure on growth in Q3 2024, with revenue of 719 million yuan, a slight increase of 1.10%, and a net profit of 465 million yuan, up 2.13% [4][6] - The company maintains a strong market position as a compliant leader in the medical aesthetics sector, with significant research reserves and a first-mover advantage [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024E at 31.56 billion yuan, 2025E at 35.92 billion yuan, and 2026E at 41.02 billion yuan [4][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 20.95 billion yuan in 2024E, 23.69 billion yuan in 2025E, and 26.84 billion yuan in 2026E [4][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 6.93 yuan in 2024E, 7.83 yuan in 2025E, and 8.87 yuan in 2026E [4][7] Operational Analysis - The company experienced a slowdown in growth for solution products, with a year-on-year increase of 11.65% in the first half of 2024, down 24.25 percentage points from the previous year. Gel products saw a year-on-year increase of 14.57%, down 124.43 percentage points [5] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 94.80%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 66.73%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points [5] - The company has effectively managed its expenses, with a sales expense ratio of 8.66%, a management expense ratio of 3.85%, and a research and development expense ratio of 7.89% for the first three quarters of 2024 [5] Future Outlook - Despite challenges such as slower consumer recovery and intensified industry competition, the overall industry remains in a growth phase, with increasing penetration rates and domestic production rates [6] - The company has received approvals for new products, including clinical trials for semaglutide injection and the launch of a new gel product, which are expected to contribute to future growth [6][7]
爱美客:24Q1-3归母净利润同增12%,高基数稳健过渡
Tianfeng Securities· 2024-10-30 09:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance over the next six months [3][9]. Core Views - The company reported a 12% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 2.376 billion and net profit at 1.586 billion [1]. - The company is expected to continue leveraging its existing product base while introducing growth-oriented products and ongoing research pipelines to drive revenue growth [2]. - The approval of the botulinum toxin product and the recent approval for the Baonida chin indication are seen as significant milestones that will enhance the company's market position in the medical aesthetics sector [1][2]. Financial Data Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 94.8%, slightly down by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q3 2024 was 94.55%, down by 0.52 percentage points [1]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 31.7 billion, 39.2 billion, and 47.8 billion respectively, with net profit estimates revised to 20.6 billion, 24.8 billion, and 30.0 billion [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 6.82, 8.21, and 9.93 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 32.59, 27.06, and 22.37 [2][5].
爱美客:2024年三季报点评:Q3增速放缓,期待新管线接力
Huachuang Securities· 2024-10-28 04:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 262 yuan, compared to the current price of 216.79 yuan [1]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.376 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.46%. The gross profit was 2.252 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 94.80%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.586 billion yuan, up 11.79% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 66.74%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 719 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.10%. The gross profit was 679 million yuan, with a gross margin of 94.55%, down 0.52 percentage points year-on-year and 0.71 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 465 million yuan, up 2.13% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 64.65%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 442 million yuan, down 4.35% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from new product pipelines in the coming year, including a product similar to "Bonida" that has received medical device registration and is suitable for injection to improve moderate chin retrusion. Additionally, a clinical trial for a semaglutide injection has been approved [2]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the total revenue is projected at 2.869 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 48.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.858 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 47.1% [5]. - The financial forecasts for 2024 to 2026 indicate that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.079 billion yuan in 2024, 2.638 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.155 billion yuan in 2026, with respective growth rates of 11.8%, 26.9%, and 19.6% [5].
爱美客:Q3淡季业绩稳健,期待旺季景气改善
Guolian Securities· 2024-10-28 02:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain stable performance during the off-season in Q3, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 9.5% for the first three quarters of 2024, and a net profit growth of 11.8% [6] - The company anticipates a marginal improvement in customer traffic during the peak season in Q4 due to multiple promotional events [6] - The company has a rich pipeline of products under development, enhancing its brand influence through various academic promotion activities [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 719 million yuan (up 1.1% year-on-year) and a net profit of 465 million yuan (up 2.1% year-on-year) [6] - The comprehensive gross margin for Q3 2024 was 94.6% (down 0.52 percentage points year-on-year), with a net profit margin of 64.65% (up 0.65 percentage points year-on-year) [6] - The company expects revenues of 32.53 billion yuan, 39.10 billion yuan, and 47.24 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 13.4%, 20.2%, and 20.8% [6][7] Product Pipeline and Brand Influence - As of H1 2024, the company has several products at different stages of development, including botulinum toxin and minoxidil solution in the registration phase, and various injectables in clinical trials [6] - The company is actively enhancing its brand influence through academic forums and competitions aimed at industry professionals [6] Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 7.11 yuan, 8.56 yuan, and 10.25 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 29x, 24x, and 20x [6][7]
爱美客:Q3增速放缓,储备管线稳步推进保障未来增长
Orient Securities· 2024-10-25 10:40
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 218.81 yuan [2][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.376 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.59 billion yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year. However, Q3 performance showed a revenue growth of only 1% and a net profit growth of 2%, which fell short of market expectations [1][4]. - The revenue from solution products grew by 11.7% year-on-year, while gel products saw a 14.6% increase. The report anticipates steady growth for solution products in Q3 2024, but gel products may face short-term pressure due to their high-end positioning amid weak mid-to-high-end consumption [1][4]. - Despite the unfavorable revenue performance, the company's gross margin remained stable, and it effectively controlled expenses, leading to an increase in net profit margin by 1 percentage point year-on-year in Q3 2024 [1][4]. - The company’s pipeline of products is gradually receiving approvals, providing sustained growth momentum for the future. Recent approvals include a medical gel product and a clinical trial notification for another product, indicating strong competitive capabilities in the domestic medical aesthetics market [1][4]. Financial Forecast and Adjustments - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 set at 2.056 billion yuan, 2.489 billion yuan, and 3.03 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates [2][4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 2.869 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.884 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 22.1% [3][4].
爱美客:2024年三季报点评:收入业绩位于预期区间偏下缘,平台型经营策略的转变为后续观察要点
东方财富· 2024-10-25 10:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [5] Core Views - The report indicates a shift in the medical aesthetics industry from a seller's market to a buyer's market, with an emphasis on brand operational capabilities as key to future success [1] - The regenerative product series is expected to expand its price range to capture a broader audience, particularly through new actions related to the Angel series [1] - The leading companies are transitioning from a sales-focused approach to a solution-oriented strategy, which may initially lead to increased costs before revenue growth is realized [1] - The company is currently in a phase where consumer recovery is not yet evident, and new products have not yet been launched, indicating a basic fundamental phase [1] - Once the company completes its transition, it is expected to possess the ability to navigate through economic cycles and benefit from platform-based valuation logic [1] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 719 million yuan (up 1.10%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 465 million yuan (up 2.13%) [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.376 billion yuan (up 9.46%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.586 billion yuan (up 11.79%) [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 94.55% (down 0.52 percentage points), while the net margin was 64.54% (up 0.59 percentage points) [2] - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 2.026 billion yuan, 2.293 billion yuan, and 2.700 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.0%, 13.2%, and 17.8% [6] Market Data - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 65.565 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of about 45.193 billion yuan [4] - The stock has experienced a 52-week high of 366.80 yuan and a low of 132.81 yuan, with a 52-week decline of 15.64% [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio ranges from 47.71 to 20.11 over the past year, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio ranges from 13.47 to 6.39 [4]
爱美客:业绩低于预期,期待后续在研产品接力
申万宏源· 2024-10-25 01:41
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported lower-than-expected performance in its Q3 2024 results, with revenue of 2.376 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.586 billion yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year [3][4] - The company has a rich pipeline of products under development, with expectations for significant volume growth post-2025, including various medical aesthetic products and devices [3][4] - The report anticipates continued growth driven by new product launches and an increasing market penetration of existing products, despite a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [4] Financial Data Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.376 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.586 billion yuan, and a gross margin of 94.8% [5][9] - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.055 billion yuan, 2.441 billion yuan, and 2.781 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 32, 27, and 24 [4][5] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 45.233 billion yuan, with a closing price of 216.98 yuan per share [1][2]
爱美客:2024三季报点评:单季度收入利润小幅增长,多品类布局静待新品
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-10-25 00:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in revenue and profit in Q3 2024, with a year-to-date revenue of 2.376 billion yuan, representing a 9.46% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 1.586 billion yuan, up 11.79% year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 94.80%, and the net profit margin was 66.74%. However, the Q3 performance showed a revenue of 719 million yuan, a modest 1.10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 465 million yuan, up 2.13% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on growth [3]. - The company is expanding its product portfolio, with recent approvals for new medical aesthetic products, including a gel for injection and a clinical trial for a weight management drug, which will enhance its strategic positioning in the market [4]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.376 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.586 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 94.80% and a net profit margin of 66.74% [3]. - The Q3 revenue was 719 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.10%, and a net profit of 465 million yuan, reflecting a 2.13% increase year-on-year [3]. - The company forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 6.91, 8.31, and 10.00 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 31, 26, and 22 times [4][5].
爱美客:公司信息更新报告:三季度增长承压,期待后续管线落地打开成长空间
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2024-10-24 16:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported revenue and net profit growth under pressure in Q3 2024, with a revenue of 2.376 billion yuan (up 9.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of 1.586 billion yuan (up 11.8% year-on-year) for the first three quarters. Q3 alone saw revenue of 719 million yuan (up 1.1%) and a net profit of 465 million yuan (up 2.1%) [1] - Despite a shift in policy, recovery in end-consumer demand is expected to take time, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2024-2026. The projected net profits are 2.075 billion yuan, 2.496 billion yuan, and 2.956 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 6.86 yuan, 8.25 yuan, and 9.77 yuan [1] - The company's product planning is clear, and the upcoming differentiated product lines are expected to drive long-term growth, making the current valuation reasonable [1] Financial Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the gross margin was 94.8%, slightly down from 95.1% in 2023, primarily due to an increase in the proportion of lower-margin solution products [2] - The expense ratio for Q3 2024 was 20.4%, up 1.2 percentage points, with a financial expense ratio of -0.5% due to reduced interest income from large-scale financial products [2] - The company has a rich matrix of aesthetic medical products, with several new products and pipelines expected to enhance growth. Notable products include "Hi Body," "Bonida 2.0," and customized products in collaboration with Langzi [3] - The company has several products in the pipeline, including botulinum toxin and lipolytic injections, with clinical trials and registration applications progressing steadily [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 3.174 billion yuan, 3.817 billion yuan, and 4.515 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.6%, 20.2%, and 18.3% respectively [4] - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is 2.075 billion yuan, 2.496 billion yuan, and 2.956 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 11.7%, 20.3%, and 18.4% [4] - The company's current P/E ratios are 30.4, 25.3, and 21.4 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a reasonable valuation [4] Market Data - The current stock price is 208.70 yuan, with a market capitalization of 63.119 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 43.506 billion yuan [5] - The stock has seen a significant trading volume, with a turnover rate of 107.45% over the past three months [5]