Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) reports results for the quarter ended December 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they m ...

Group 1 - AMG Critical Materials N.V. announced that its subsidiary, AMG LIVA, will install the Hybrid Energy Storage System at Aramco's Bulk Plant in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia, integrating it with an existing solar plant [1] - The Hybrid ESS combines Lithium-Ion and Vanadium Redox Flow batteries with AI routines to enhance efficiency, safety, reliability, and battery lifespan [1] - This initiative supports Saudi Arabia's 2030 Vision by reducing carbon emissions, increasing renewable energy deployment, and enhancing energy storage capabilities [2] Group 2 - The project complements the IK Metals Reclamation and Catalyst Manufacturing Project, known as the IK Supercenter, which focuses on recycling metals, including vanadium concentrate from spent catalysts [3] - The IK Supercenter is a joint venture between Shell & AMG Recycling B.V. and local partner United Company for Industry (UCI), aiming to reduce carbon emissions compared to traditional mining processes [3] - The facility will include a vanadium electrolyte production plant to support the Kingdom's vanadium flow battery market, creating a fully integrated value chain in Saudi Arabia [3] Group 3 - AMG's mission is to provide critical materials and technologies to promote a less carbon-intensive world, focusing on energy storage materials like lithium and vanadium [4] - The company is a market leader in recycling vanadium from oil refining residues and operates in advanced metallurgy, serving various sectors including aerospace [5] - AMG has approximately 3,600 employees and operates globally with production facilities in multiple countries, including Germany, the UK, and the US [6]

we discuss ideas like this as they happen in more detail. All active investors are welcome to join on a free trial and ask any question in our chat room full of sophisticated traders and investors.We turn our attention to one of our favorite companies, Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. ( AMG ). In our previous article , we looked at the company and the yield potential of its baby bonds and possible profit scenarios. Today, we return toArbitrage Trader, aka Denislav Iliev has been day trading for 15+ years and ...

Group 1 - Amazon.com, Inc. was named as a final trade by Ritholtz Wealth Management's CEO, with a Buy rating maintained by Jefferies analyst and a price target increase from $275 to $300 [1] - Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. was selected as a final trade by Humilis Investment Strategies' CEO, supported by Goldman Sachs analyst maintaining a Buy rating and raising the price target from $300 to $341 [2] - iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF was highlighted by NB Private Wealth's CIO, indicating positive consumer engagement as tariffs are no longer a concern [2] Group 2 - Uber Technologies, Inc. was chosen by Virtus Investment Partners' senior managing director, with shares gaining on the day [3] - Uber announced a renewal of its partnership with TomTom to enhance routing and location services for its operations [3] - Amazon shares rose 3.4% to close at $240.93, Affiliated Managers Group shares increased by 2.2% to $310.31, Uber shares surged around 6% to $85.54, and iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF gained 0.9% [4]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 has reached a new all-time closing high, driven by improved sentiment following a decline in new applications for U.S. unemployment benefits and strong economic growth of 4.3% in Q3 2025, surpassing expectations of 3.2% [1][2] Economic Outlook - The resilient economy and consumer demand are expected to support healthy corporate earnings, with a positive growth outlook and anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for 2026 enhancing investor optimism [2] Asset Management Sector - Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (AMG) and Federated Hermes, Inc. (FHI) have reached new highs, reflecting bullish investor sentiment influenced by the overall economic health [3][8] - AMG's shares hit a 52-week high of $293.74, closing at $291.13, following strong Q3 results and positive Q4 guidance, with expected economic earnings between $8.10 and $9.26 per share, up from $6.53 in Q4 2024 [5][6] - AMG's pivot towards private markets and liquid alternatives has driven strong inflows, with $17 billion in net client cash flows in the first nine months of 2025, and alternatives now account for 55% of earnings [10][11] Federated Hermes Performance - Federated Hermes shares reached a 52-week high of $54.48, closing at $54.33, supported by positive market sentiment [13] - The company reported record AUM of $871.2 billion as of September 30, 2025, with a 7.4% CAGR in AUM over the past four years, driven by strong money market and equity asset growth [14] - Money market AUM was $652.8 billion, with favorable conditions expected to continue as yields remain attractive [15] Financial Flexibility - Federated Hermes maintains solid financial flexibility with $647.4 million in cash against $348.3 million in long-term debt, supporting shareholder returns through regular dividends and a share repurchase program [17] Growth Strategies - AMG's new partnerships are projected to add nearly $24 billion in AUM, while Federated Hermes has strengthened its platform through acquisitions, enhancing its operational capabilities [9][16]

Core Insights - AMG Lithium GmbH is in the qualification phase for its lithium hydroxide refinery in Bitterfeld, Germany, which will be the first industrial-scale battery-grade lithium hydroxide production facility in Europe, expected to operate at design capacity by mid-2026 [1][2] Company Developments - AMG plans to process both technical-grade lithium salts and recycled lithium at the refinery, contributing to a sustainable circular economy, supported by €36 million in funding from the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy [2][3] - The annual capacity of one module of the lithium refinery is 20,000 tons, sufficient to supply batteries for approximately 500,000 electric vehicles [3] Industry Context - The establishment of a backward integrated lithium value chain aligns with the European Critical Raw Materials Act, enhancing independence for raw materials and critical materials in Germany and Europe [3] - AMG's mission focuses on providing critical materials and related process technologies to support a less carbon-intensive world, with a strong emphasis on energy storage materials like lithium [4] Operational Overview - AMG operates globally with approximately 3,600 employees and has production facilities in multiple countries, including Germany, the UK, and the US, among others [6] - The company's segments include lithium, vanadium, and technologies, with a focus on reducing CO2 footprints and advancing recycling efforts [5]

Core Insights - AMG has successfully pivoted its business towards alternative capabilities, which now account for over 50% of the company's EBITDA [2] - The company has experienced significant acceleration in organic growth, with flows nearing the highest levels seen in over a decade [2] Business Momentum - There is considerable momentum in AMG's business as it heads into 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the upcoming year [3]

Summary of Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) Conference Call - December 09, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Affiliated Managers Group (NYSE: AMG) - **Industry**: Asset Management - **Key Focus**: Transition towards alternative investment capabilities, which now represent over 50% of EBITDA [2][4][6] Core Points and Arguments Business Evolution and Strategy - AMG has successfully pivoted towards alternative investments, with alternatives now comprising approximately 55% of EBITDA, aiming for two-thirds in the coming years [2][4][6][8] - The growth in alternatives is driven by both organic growth and strategic acquisitions, with a focus on independent firms that align with AMG's investment strategy [5][6][7] - AMG has made four new investments and one strategic partnership in alternatives this year, contributing to the growth of its affiliate base [7][8] Acquisition Strategy - AMG's acquisition strategy focuses on smaller deals, typically with an enterprise value between $250 million and $1 billion, investing 20%-60% of the economics of the business [15][16][17] - The company emphasizes maintaining the independence of its affiliates while providing strategic support, including business development and product innovation [13][14] Organic Growth - Liquid alternatives have seen a significant turnaround, with AQR being a major contributor, managing approximately $45 billion in assets [18][19][21] - AMG has observed positive flows in liquid alternatives, with total alternative flows exceeding $50 billion, two-thirds of which are from liquid alts [21][22] - AQR's tax-aware strategies are highlighted as a durable trend, addressing the needs of high-net-worth individuals and wealth advisors [22][25][26] Private Markets - AMG's private markets strategy is focused on specialized areas, with Pantheon being a key affiliate [33][34] - The company aims to leverage its scale to provide unique access to differentiated return streams in private markets [35][36] Financial Performance and Capital Allocation - AMG has reduced its share count by approximately 40% over the last five years, indicating a strong capital return strategy through share repurchases [42][44] - The company anticipates continued share repurchases, viewing its current share price as attractive [47][48] - Performance fees have averaged around $150 million annually, with potential for growth as the business evolves [51][52] Outlook for 2026 - AMG expects continued momentum in alternative flows, with higher fees and margins contributing positively to earnings [56][57] - The company is not yet ready to provide specific guidance for 2026 but acknowledges a step function increase in flows and net effects from new investments [58][59] Additional Important Insights - AMG's unique position as a one-stop shop for various differentiated return streams allows it to capitalize on the trend of institutional LPs consolidating their relationships with fewer managers [35][36] - The company is exploring new product offerings in private markets, including structured credit and multi-asset products [39][40] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting AMG's strategic focus on alternatives, acquisition strategy, organic growth, financial performance, and outlook for the future.

Core Insights - The asset and investment management sector has shown impressive performance in 2025, driven by strong market rebounds, record inflows, and a broad expansion in global assets under management (AUM) [1] Market Performance - Significant equity market volatility has led to increased trading activities, positively impacting companies like BlackRock, Invesco, and Affiliated Managers Group [2] - Elevated volatility has pushed investors towards active management and tactical allocation products, resulting in increased flows into active ETFs, private credit vehicles, and multi-asset strategies [4] Asset Management Growth - Global AUM has grown sharply due to market appreciation and substantial net inflows, particularly from the Asia-Pacific region and high-net-worth channels [4][5] - Demand for alternative investments remains strong, with private credit funds and diversified alternatives attracting institutional and retail interest [5] Company-Specific Insights BlackRock - As of September 30, 2025, BlackRock's total AUM reached a record $13.46 trillion, with a CAGR of 9.2% over the past five years [11] - The company expects continued momentum in AUM growth due to its focus on the iShares unit and active equity business [12] - BlackRock's revenues are projected to grow by 17.1% year-over-year in 2026, with earnings expected to increase by 12.9% [15] Invesco - Invesco's AUM was $2.1 trillion as of September 30, 2025, with a CAGR of 8.5% over the past five years [16] - The company is focusing on improving operating efficiency and has achieved $200 million in annualized net savings from the OppenheimerFunds acquisition [18] - Invesco's revenues and earnings are expected to grow by 14.5% and 32.2% year-over-year in 2026, respectively [20] Affiliated Managers Group - Affiliated Managers had total AUM of $803.6 billion as of September 30, 2025, with a shift towards alternatives reversing previous net outflows [23][24] - The company has been pivoting towards private markets and liquid alternatives, which are expected to support cash flows [25] - AMG's revenues and earnings are projected to grow by 8% and 18.9% year-over-year in 2026, respectively [27]

Core Viewpoint - Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) has shown a positive performance with a 5.9% increase in shares since the last earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend leading up to the next earnings release [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 economic earnings were reported at $6.10 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.83, and reflecting a 26.6% increase year-over-year [3]. - Economic net income reached $179.7 million, up 17.3% from the previous year, surpassing the estimate of $166.8 million [4]. - Total revenues for the quarter increased by 2.2% year-over-year to $528 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $521.1 million [5]. - Adjusted EBITDA was reported at $250.9 million, a 17.2% increase, exceeding the projected $233.3 million [5]. Assets Under Management (AUM) - As of September 30, 2025, total AUM was $803.6 billion, reflecting a 10.3% increase, surpassing the estimate of $780.8 billion [6]. - Average AUM totaled $786.9 billion, up 10.6% year-over-year, with net client cash outflows of $2.8 billion during the quarter [6]. Capital and Liquidity - The company had $476.1 million in cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2025, down from $950 million at the end of 2024 [7]. - Total debt decreased to $2.37 billion from $2.62 billion as of December 31, 2024, while stockholders' equity slightly decreased to $3.34 billion [7]. Share Repurchase Activity - During Q3, Affiliated Managers repurchased shares worth $77 million [8]. Future Outlook - Management anticipates adjusted EBITDA in the range of $325-$370 million for Q4 2025, based on current AUM levels and expected net performance fees of $75-$120 million [9]. - Economic net income (controlling interest) is projected between $234-$267 million, with economic EPS expected to range from $8.10 to $9.26 [11]. Estimate Revisions - There has been an upward trend in estimates revisions, with the consensus estimate shifting by 7.88% in the past month [12]. Investment Strategy Scores - Affiliated Managers has an average Growth Score of C, a Momentum Score of A, and a Value Score of B, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of A [13]. Industry Context - Affiliated Managers operates within the Zacks Financial - Investment Management industry, where competitor Invesco reported a 4.3% gain over the past month and revenues of $1.19 billion, reflecting a year-over-year change of +7.4% [15].