Core Viewpoint - AutoNation (AN) is positioned well to potentially beat earnings estimates in its upcoming quarterly report, continuing a trend of positive earnings surprises [1][5]. Earnings Performance - For the most recent quarter, AutoNation reported earnings of $4.35 per share, missing the expected $4.68 per share by 7.59%. In the previous quarter, it exceeded expectations by reporting $4.97 per share against a consensus estimate of $4.26 per share, resulting in a surprise of 16.67% [2]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for AutoNation have been increasing, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of +0.83%, indicating analysts' growing bullish sentiment on the company's near-term earnings potential [5][8]. - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat, with historical data showing that stocks with this combination beat estimates nearly 70% of the time [6][8]. Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions, which may provide a more accurate prediction of earnings [7].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in AutoNation's earnings driven by higher revenues, with the actual results being crucial for near-term stock price movements [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - AutoNation is expected to report quarterly earnings of $4.67 per share, reflecting a +17% year-over-year change, and revenues are projected to be $6.79 billion, up 4.8% from the previous year [3]. - The earnings report is scheduled for July 25, and better-than-expected results could lead to a stock price increase, while a miss may result in a decline [2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.3% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - However, the Most Accurate Estimate for AutoNation is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.21%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict deviations from consensus estimates, but its predictive power is significant mainly for positive readings [9][10]. - AutoNation's current Zacks Rank is 3, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, AutoNation exceeded expectations with earnings of $4.68 per share against an expected $4.35, resulting in a surprise of +7.59% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, AutoNation has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [14]. Industry Comparison - Sonic Automotive, another player in the automotive retail industry, is expected to post earnings of $1.61 per share, indicating a +9.5% year-over-year change, with revenues projected at $3.65 billion, up 5.7% [18]. - Sonic Automotive's consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.3% higher, but it also has a negative Earnings ESP of -0.16%, making predictions of an earnings beat challenging [19][20].

Industry Overview - The Zacks Auto Retail and Wholesale industry is experiencing significant changes due to evolving consumer habits, policy shifts, and strategic actions by key players [1][3] - The industry is consumer-driven, with performance closely tied to economic conditions, where increased disposable income typically leads to higher vehicle purchases [3] - The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the industry's shift towards online tools and e-commerce, a trend expected to continue [3] Factors Influencing Industry Dynamics - Car affordability has seen a modest improvement due to rising consumer incomes and dealer incentives, but tariffs on imported vehicles continue to pose challenges, potentially adding up to $5,700 to the cost of new cars [4] - The EV market is in a transitional phase, with first-half 2025 U.S. EV sales reaching 607,089 units, a 1.5% year-over-year increase, but a decline in demand is anticipated in the fourth quarter without government subsidies [5] - Auto retailers are making strategic acquisitions to enhance market share and diversify offerings, while also investing in digital platforms to meet changing customer expectations [2][6][7] Market Performance - The Zacks Auto Retail & Wholesale industry ranks 91, placing it in the top 37% of 245 Zacks industries, indicating positive near-term prospects [8][9] - Over the past year, the industry has outperformed the S&P 500, returning 16.3% compared to the S&P 500's 12.6% growth [10] Current Valuation - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of 8.95X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 17.64X and the sector's 20.66X [13] Company Highlights - **Penske Automotive**: Completed acquisitions in 2024 representing nearly $2.1 billion in annualized revenues, with a strong order backlog and a low long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of 15.5% [17][18] - **Lithia Motors**: Expanded its footprint through acquisitions, adding $3.8 billion in 2023 and $5.9 billion in 2024 in annualized revenues, with a focus on digital platforms to enhance customer experience [22][23] - **AutoNation**: Continues to grow through strategic acquisitions and digital transformation, with a recent purchase expected to add $200 million in annual revenues [25][26] - **Group 1 Automotive**: Achieved significant revenue growth through acquisitions, adding over $1 billion in 2023 and $3.9 billion in 2024, while focusing on an omnichannel strategy [31][32]

Core Insights - AutoNation, Inc. will release its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025, on July 25, 2025, before market opens [1] - A conference call and audio webcast will be held on the same day at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss the results [1] Company Overview - AutoNation is one of the largest automotive retailers in the United States, providing a wide range of new and used vehicles, customer financing, parts, and maintenance services [3] - The company has raised over $40 million for cancer-related causes through its initiative DRV PNK, showcasing its commitment to community support [3]

Core Insights - Used car prices are experiencing significant increases, with the Manheim Index rising 1.6% in June and a 6.3% year-over-year surge, the highest since August 2022 [1] - The increase in used car prices is attributed to Trump-era auto tariffs and a tightening supply of new vehicles, creating a demand for pre-owned cars [2][5] Market Dynamics - The uncertainty caused by proposed 25% tariffs on imported vehicles has led automakers to reduce production plans, resulting in a scarcity of new vehicles and increased demand for used cars [2] - Used vehicle inventory has dropped to a 43-day supply, significantly below normal levels, giving dealers increased pricing power and higher per-unit profits [3] Company Performance - Carvana and AutoNation are well-positioned to capitalize on the current market conditions due to their investments in online platforms and omnichannel sales strategies [4] - Carvana shares have increased over 74% year-to-date, while AutoNation has seen a nearly 26% rally, indicating strong investor interest and favorable margins [5] Investment Opportunities - The current pricing environment and expanding margins suggest that dealership stocks like Carvana and AutoNation may continue to perform well, providing a resilient investment opportunity amid tariff-related uncertainties in the new car market [5]

Market Overview - The first half of 2025 experienced increased volatility and uncertainty due to President Trump's tariffs and a faster-than-expected cooling of inflation, leading to market recovery [1] - Recent months have shown favorable market conditions with easing trade tensions and a reduction in the Middle East crisis [1] Stock Performance and Recommendations - Optimism regarding artificial intelligence is expected to continue supporting stock prices, particularly in technology sectors [2] - Cooling inflation raises expectations for potential rate cuts starting in September 2025, contributing to a positive market outlook [2] - Stocks such as Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), BGSF, ArcBest Corporation (ARCB), Cardinal Health (CAH), and AutoNation (AN) are recommended for monitoring as the second half of 2025 begins [2][6] Screening Strategy - A screening strategy has been developed to identify stocks based on improving broker recommendations and upward revisions in earnings estimates over the past four weeks [3] - The price/sales ratio is included as a valuation metric, focusing on companies with strong top-line performance [3] Screening Criteria - The top 75 companies with net upgrades in broker ratings over the last four weeks are identified [4] - The top 10 stocks with the highest percentage change in earnings estimates for the upcoming quarter are highlighted [4] - Companies in the bottom 10% of price-to-sales ratios are included for better valuation [4] Company Highlights - Cracker Barrel is focusing on menu innovation and pricing strategies to drive growth, introducing new offerings to attract customers [5] - BGSF has seen a 25% increase in shares over the past month and has a Zacks Rank 1, with earnings estimates rising over 300% in the last 60 days [7] - ArcBest is improving productivity and service quality, expecting a 52.1% increase in earnings per share for 2026 compared to 2025 [8] - Cardinal Health is undergoing strategic improvements to revitalize its business model, with its Medical segment expected to drive growth [9][10] - AutoNation's diversified product portfolio and strategic acquisitions support its market position, currently holding a Zacks Rank 3 [11]

Core Viewpoint - AutoNation's stock has reached a new 52-week high, indicating that the market may have fully recognized its value, yet a deeper analysis reveals that the company remains fundamentally undervalued due to its strong operational performance and strategic focus [1][2][3]. Financial Metrics - AutoNation's trailing price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is approximately 11.89, significantly lower than the S&P 500 average and about half of similar companies in the consumer cyclical sector, suggesting undervaluation [4]. - The price-to-sales ratio (P/S) stands at a low 0.28, indicating that the company's market capitalization is a small fraction of its annual revenue, which is often a sign of undervaluation [4]. Growth Potential - Wall Street analysts have a consensus rating of Moderate Buy for AutoNation, with Bank of America raising its price target to $255, indicating potential upside [4]. - The After-Sales division generated a record $568 million in gross profit in Q1 2025, providing a stable, high-margin revenue stream less sensitive to economic cycles [7]. Strategic Operations - AutoNation is expanding its finance company, AutoNation Finance (ANF), which completed its first $700 million asset-backed securitization, enhancing its profit per unit metric [8][9]. - The company repurchased $225 million of its stock in Q1 2025, reflecting management's confidence in the stock's value and reducing the number of shares outstanding, which increases earnings per share (EPS) [10][11]. Market Positioning - AutoNation's strategy focuses on high-margin operations and profitability in the used car segment, with gross profit per used vehicle increasing by 13.1% despite a slight 2% dip in same-store used vehicle sales volume [13][14]. - The company is actively acquiring dealerships, such as a $70 million acquisition in Colorado, to expand its revenue and market presence [12]. Investment Narrative - AutoNation presents a compelling case for value-oriented investors, showcasing a robust business model that generates stable profits beyond just car sales [15][16].

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Core Points - AutoNation, Inc. has launched a new Drive Pink campaign focused on pediatric patients, partnering with Children's Miracle Network Hospitals and the National Pediatric Cancer Foundation, reinforcing its commitment to cancer patients and expanding its philanthropic efforts [1][5] - The campaign includes a nationwide cash register donation initiative across over 300 stores, allowing customers to round up payments or donate at checkout, with all funds supporting local pediatric cancer treatments [2][5] - AutoNation has raised $70,000 to purchase a vehicle for the National Pediatric Cancer Foundation, bringing total support for the organization to over $460,000 since 2021 [3] - A new 2025 Chrysler Pacifica Select passenger van will be featured at the "Rally Funds the Cure" event, symbolizing support for children diagnosed with cancer [4] - AutoNation emphasizes a holistic approach to community impact, providing financial support and practical assistance, with associates volunteering their time to help partner nonprofits and hospitals [5][7] Company Overview - AutoNation is one of the largest automotive retailers in the U.S., offering a wide range of new and used vehicles, financing, parts, and maintenance services [7] - The company has raised over $40 million for cancer-related causes through its Drive Pink initiative, demonstrating a commitment to positively impacting communities [7] Partner Organizations - Children's Miracle Network Hospitals has raised over $9 billion for children's hospitals, focusing on critical treatments and healthcare services [8][9] - The National Pediatric Cancer Foundation is dedicated to funding research and clinical trials for less toxic and more effective childhood cancer treatments [11]