Key Takeaways ASML reported Q4 EPS of EURO 7.34, up 7.3% Y/Y, but earnings missed the consensus estimate.Systems sales made up 78.4% of ASML revenues, rising 6.6% Y/Y on EUV strength and advanced-node demand.ASML's gross margin expanded to 52.2%, while Q1 2026 revenues are guided between EURO 8.2B and 8.9B.ASML Holding (ASML) reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of €7.34 per share, which increased 7.3% year over year. Converted to USD, ASML’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings were $8.55 per share, which missed ...

Core Viewpoint - ASML's recent earnings report initially boosted its stock, making it Europe's most valuable company, but concerns about its ability to fulfill record orders led to a decline in share price, indicating high investor expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - ASML's shares increased by 34% in January and are currently trading at 42 times the 2026 earnings estimates, significantly higher than Nvidia's 25 times [2]. - The company's order backlog is at 38.8 billion euros, but the production of its advanced chip-making machines can take up to a year [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - ASML is the sole manufacturer of EUV lithography systems, crucial for producing advanced chip circuitry, which positions it favorably in the market [4]. - Major customers like TSMC are planning significant capacity expansions in 2026, with additional growth expected in 2027 and 2028, which could drive demand for ASML's products [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Valuation - Analysts are debating ASML's growth potential given its current high valuation of 467 billion euros (approximately $559 billion) [3]. - Some investors express concerns that much of the positive outlook is already reflected in the stock price, leading to discussions about the risk-reward balance of its high multiples [3][7].

ASML's latest results reignited the rally that has made it Europe's most valuable company, until questions about its capacity to meet record orders sent the stock sliding - highlighting just how stret... ...

1月29日，挪威央行投资管理（Norges Bank Investment Management）正式发布 2025 年年度投资报告。 数据显示，全球最大主权财富基金之一的挪威政府全球养老基金（Government Pension Fund Global，GPFG）在2025年实现15.1%的整体回报率，基金规模 于2025年12月31日达到21.268万亿挪威克朗（约合15.47万亿人民币）。 从基金规模变动细节来看，2025年基金会计收益达2.362万亿克朗（约1.72万亿人民币），但受挪威克朗对多国主要货币升值影响，汇率因素导致基金价值 缩水。同时，扣除管理费用后的资金净流入为319亿克朗，多重因素共同作用下，基金全年规模净增1.526万亿克朗。 从资产类别表现来看，权益类投资成为基金收益的核心驱动力。2025年，基金股票投资回报率高达19.3%，显著跑赢其他资产类别。其中，科技、金融及 基础材料板块表现尤为突出，贡献了权益投资的主要收益。挪威央行投资管理首席执行官尼古拉・丹根（Nicolai Tangen）在声明中强调："2025年基金交 出了极具说服力的成绩单，科技、金融与基础材料领域的优质股票持续 ...

Core Insights - The investment environment in 2025 was challenging, with foreign equity markets achieving their best returns in over a decade, while the International Growth Composite Portfolio finished the year essentially flat due to a market preference for cyclically sensitive businesses [8][11]. Portfolio Performance - The International Growth Composite Portfolio's performance was -2.21% for the quarter and 0.68% year-to-date, compared to the MSCI ACWI (ex-USA) which returned 5.05% for the quarter and 32.39% year-to-date [5]. - Top contributors to the Portfolio's performance included Tokyo Electron, ASML, and Shopify, while the largest detractors were Monday.com, MercadoLibre, and SAP [13][17]. Company-Specific Insights - **Tokyo Electron**: A leading player in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, expected to grow revenues at a high single-digit rate and increase operating margins from 25% in 2024 to 35% in the medium term, driving mid-teens earnings growth [14]. - **ASML**: Benefiting from investor optimism around AI, as its equipment is essential for advanced chips, which are critical for AI applications [16]. - **Monday.com**: Despite strong results, the stock sold off due to concerns over near-term growth slowdown, but revenue growth is expected to sustain over 20% as it expands its market reach [18]. - **MercadoLibre**: The largest e-commerce platform in Latin America, experiencing a decline in stock price due to a slight decrease in operating margin while investing in growth initiatives [19]. - **SAP**: Despite cloud revenue growth exceeding expectations, the stock faced pressure due to market conditions, but is viewed as resilient with a strong market position and high recurring revenues [20]. Portfolio Activity - New position established in **Nintendo**, which is expected to see significant growth following the release of the Switch 2, with anticipated earnings growth of 30% annually over the next few years [23]. - Positions in **Teleperformance** and **Siemens Healthineers** were eliminated due to ongoing business challenges, reallocating funds to invest in Nintendo and Tencent [25][26]. Market Outlook - The outlook for the Portfolio remains positive, with expectations of benefiting from structural trends such as technology shifts and growth in emerging markets like India [27].

（央视财经《天下财经》）当地时间28日，美国电商巨头亚马逊公司宣布，将裁减约1.6万个工作岗 位，这是该公司在三个月内进行的第二次大规模裁员行动。同一天，荷兰半导体设备制造商阿斯麦也宣 布，裁减工作岗位1700个。 据路透社报道，此次裁员是亚马逊公司整体削减约3万名员工计划的一部分，这3万名员工约占其企业员 工总数的10%，在去年10月启动的调整中，亚马逊已经裁掉1.4万名员工。在28日发表的声明中，亚马 逊称，此次裁员的目的是通过减少管理层级、增强责任感和消除官僚作风来强化公司架构。据悉，这一 轮裁员将波及亚马逊云服务、核心零售业务、流媒体以及人力资源等部门，有分析指出，这也是亚马逊 为调整业务结构、专注于人工智能领域而采取的最新举措。在去年10月，亚马逊曾预测，其2026年的资 本支出将达到1250亿美元，重点向人工智能开发和数据中心基础设施建设领域倾斜。 同样在28日，荷兰半导体设备制造商阿斯麦公司宣布，在全球范围内裁减1700个工作岗位，主要分布在 荷兰和美国，岗位集中在技术部门与信息技术部门，人数约占公司员工总数的4%。阿斯麦表示，此举 目的在于优化组织架构、简化流程，提高公司的效率与产出。 转载请 ...

Core Insights - ASML Holding N.V. is ranked fifth among the 20 most profitable stocks over the last 20 years [1] - Berenberg raised its price target for ASML to €1,300 from €1,200 while maintaining a Buy rating [1] - Bernstein increased its price target for ASML to $1,642 from $1,528 and maintained an Outperform rating, highlighting strong demand from China-related DUV [2] Company Overview - ASML Holding N.V. is a leading semiconductor equipment company specializing in advanced lithography systems for integrated circuit manufacturing [3]

阿斯麦首席执行官克里斯托夫·富凯表示，台积电、三星、美光等客户都在扩大产能，这逐步转化为阿 斯麦的订单增长，"美光几乎每周都宣布一项重大进展，这些进展基本可以直接转化为我们这边的出货 量。" 不过，阿斯麦也宣布将裁员约1700人，主要集中在技术部门与信息技术部门。此次裁员对象主要位于荷 兰，部分在美国，且主要涉及管理层，裁员人数约占公司员工总数的4%。 【文/观察者网 陈思佳】当地时间1月28日，荷兰光刻机巨头阿斯麦（ASML）发布2025年第四季度及全 年财报，并调整了对2026年的预期。据路透社报道，中国2025年仍是阿斯麦最大的单一市场，占销售额 的33%。但在美国的出口限制措施影响下，阿斯麦预计，2026年中国占销售额的比例将降至20%。 阿斯麦是全球唯一能生产极紫外（EUV）光刻机的生产商，2025年全年净销售额达327亿欧元，同比增 长15.5%。净利润提高到96亿欧元，增幅达26.3%。作为全球最大芯片制造设备买家的中国，依然是阿 斯麦最主要的客户，占到该公司2025年销售额的33%。 随着全球芯片市场加大产能以满足人工智能（AI）和数据中心需求，阿斯麦的订单数量超出预期，对 芯片制造设备的需求 ...

1月28日，光刻机厂商ASML发布2025年第四季度业绩，这份创季度新高的业绩中有几个关键数据：当季营收97亿欧元，光刻机及其他设 备贡献76亿欧元，毛利率52.2%，净利润达28亿欧元，同时手握74亿欧元新增的EUV订单。截至2025年底，ASML的未交付订单金额为 388亿欧元。 与此同时，ASML宣布启动一项新的最高达120亿欧元的股票回购计划，预计将于 2028年12月31日前执行完毕。 ASML预计2026年第一季度净销售额在82亿至89亿欧元之间，毛利率介于51%至53%。 之所以强调转向EUV时代，除了新增的74亿欧元的EUV订单之外，最核心的是本季度76亿欧元的设备收入中，EUV光刻机贡献了48%， 即36.48亿欧元，而在第三季度，DUV还是绝对的营收主力。 ASML开始大幅度转向EUV时代。 根据ASML披露的数据，2025年全年EUV销售额增长39%至116亿欧元，确认的营收总计48台，而DUV虽然整体贡献了120亿欧元，但销 售额同比下滑6%。 所以在第三季度公布EUV订单时，我们就强调，随着主要晶圆厂都在追2nm及更先进制程，EUV营收占比扩大的趋势会更加明显。 除了美国，日本地区对 ...

Market Performance - The three major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.3% and 0.57% respectively. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 264.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The semiconductor equipment ETF underperformed, declining by 4.51% [1]. Downward Factors Analysis - Continuous outflow of broad-based funds has led to a rapid rotation in the market. On one hand, the persistent outflow of broad-based funds has created upward pressure on the overall market. On the other hand, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and real estate have performed strongly, which, combined with previous significant gains, has placed downward pressure on the semiconductor sector. Overall, the decline in semiconductor equipment is not driven by fundamentals but is a result of a lack of major positive stimuli and the accelerated market rotation [1]. Future Outlook - There is strong demand for capacity expansion, and the semiconductor equipment sector remains in good condition. Notably, ASML reported a net sales figure of 9.7 billion euros for Q4 2025, with a gross margin of 52.2% and a net profit of 2.8 billion euros. The new order amount for Q4 reached 13.2 billion euros, with 7.4 billion euros attributed to EUV lithography machine orders, setting a historical record. By the end of 2025, ASML's unfulfilled order amount stands at 38.8 billion euros, with visibility extending to 2027. Storage customers accounted for 56% of the new orders in Q4, indicating strong momentum for global storage capacity expansion. This has positively impacted U.S. semiconductor equipment stocks such as Lam Research and Applied Materials, as well as storage companies like SanDisk and Micron, which reached new highs [1]. Expansion Expectations - The expectation for capacity expansion remains strong, with potential for upward adjustments. Currently, it is anticipated that NAND prices may continue to double in Q1 2026 and sustain this trend into Q2, significantly stimulating the industry's desire for expansion. Domestically, the market expects an expansion of 120,000 to 140,000 wafers for NAND this year, with ongoing tightness in storage capacity and further upward adjustments in expansion expectations for 2027-2028 [2]. Semiconductor Equipment Sector Growth Narrative - The semiconductor equipment sector continues to possess a clear growth narrative driven by "storage expansion and advanced process expansion." This cycle of semiconductor equipment differs from previous recoveries or domestic substitutions, as it is genuinely benefiting from the high demand driven by global AI. Whether it is the advanced process expansion required for AI computing power or the storage expansion propelled by AI, semiconductor equipment is a core element in overcoming capacity bottlenecks [2]. Valuation - As of January 29, the P/E ratio of the semiconductor equipment ETF index stands at 106.83x, placing it in the 85.40th percentile since its inception [3].